1. Healthcare

Benson Quinn Commodities Inc.
Minneapolis, MN
Soy Complex
Review: Beans closed higher today on a mixed of supportive
fundamental news and return of risk-on exuberance in the macro
markets. Malaysian palm oil futures rallied 5% overnight as
Indonesia looks to increase its biodiesel subsidy substantially.
This supported today’s rally in soyoil and supported firmer
overnight trade in the beans. Strong weekly export demand for
beans once again coming in above trade expectations supported
the firmer day session which had beans pushing back up near
Tuesday’s rally highs. Soymeal got the short end of the stick today
trading and closing lower in spite of strong export demand as
meal was sold against long the soyoil trade. In the macro
markets, the US dollar after a firmer start last night turned lower
and supported recoveries across the broad commodity sphere.
Crude oil recovered some of yesterday’s losses with the front
month march once again above $50 a barrel. US equities were
also higher today with rebound in commodities helping the Dow
close higher for the 4-th straight session and near a 1-month
high. This week’s volatility is not over yet with tomorrow bringing
monthly jobs data with economists looking for US to have added
236,000 jobs in January with the unemployment rate to be
unchanged at 5.6%. Funds bought an estimated 6,000 beans and
3,000 soyoil while selling 2,000 meal.
The overnight session started mixed but quickly uncovered
support and trended higher into the morning pause. Reversal in
crude, the rally in Malaysian palm and cut in bank reserve rates
by the Chinese all offered support. Short covering ahead of
weekly export sales was also noted. The day session opened
strongly higher on fresh intraday highs but ran into selling for a
rather choppy first couple of hours of day session trade but as
outside markets and specifically crude gained beans settled down
to steady gains closing near the top end of the day’s trading
range. March futures closed up 9 ¼-cents at $9.81 ¼ with the
front month contract up 20-cent for the week. November futures
gained 9 ¾-cents on the day to close at $9.64 ¾ and is up 19cents for the week. After trading easier yesterday, the calendar
spreads firmed mildly today with the March/May spread closing
at 6 ½-cent carry. The Goldman roll starts tomorrow. By looks of
open interest changes yesterday, someone was front running that
spread yesterday with the March O/I down 12,457 contracts. First
notice the March contract in still several weeks out on Friday,
February 27. The products were strongly mixed with soyoil
rallying to 2-week highs while meal closed lower on the spread.
Weekly export sales were 489,700 MT for old crop and
7,100 MT for new. China bought a net 225,000 MT that included
new purchases of 439,400 MT, 107,000 MT switched from
unknown and cancellation of 321,300 MT. Year-to-date China
has bought 28.5 MMT compared to 27.6 MMT for the same
period last year. Outstanding sales to China are 3.4 MMT
compared to 5.8 MMT last year. Outstanding sales to unknown
destination is 2.08 MMT compared to 2.11 MMT last year. USDA
is forecasting total US exports at 1,770 million bushels.
Accumulated sales as of January 29 are 1,671 million or 94% of
forecast. Accumulated shipments are 1,343 million or 76% of
forecast. Most are looking for USDA to raise export demand next
Tuesday by 10 to 20 million bushels with ending stocks declining
a corresponding amount. The average estimate for US ending
stocks is 394 million, down from last month’s 410 million.
The Goldman roll starts tomorrow which should weigh on
the front month March contract especially at the close. The
upcoming USDA report should offer support on pre-report short
covering. Macro markets are the wild card with January
employment data due at 7:30 AM CST.
Kim Rugel
February 5, 2015
Settlements:
Close
SH15
981 ¼
SK15
987 ¾
SN15
992 ¾
SX15
964 ¾
SMH15
331.40
BOH15
31.71
RSH15
458.70
Change
+9 ¼
+9
+9
+9 ¾
-1.30
+1.21
+3.40
High
982 ¾
989
994
965 ½
334.10
31.97
460.50
Low
969 ¼
976
981
952 ¾
330.00
30.55
452.20
Volume/Open Interest (# of Contracts):
Total Volume
Open Interest
Total
215,113
703,667
SH15
121,561
276,386
SK15
47,954
164,303
SX15
13,502
125,005
Change
-4,607
-12,457
+4,261
+1,501
Technicals:
Support
SH15
959 ½
SX15
945 ½
50-Day MA
1019
996
Resist
989 ¼
971 ¾
20-Day MA
989 ¼
971 ¾
USDA Weekly Export Data:
Date
Inspections (MT)
2/2/15
Bean Sales (MT)
2/5/15
Meal Sales (MT)
2/5/15
Oil Sales (MT)
2/5/15
Export Markets:
Mo
CIF
FHFeb
+84H
LHFeb
+78H
Chg
-----
Processor Markets:
Mo
MKTO
Chg
Feb
-25H
--Mar
-30H
---
Trade Est.
1,150-1,300
200-400
120-250
5-15
Actual
1,697,852
496,800
302,300
15,100
St. Paul
-55H
-55H
Chg
-----
PNW
+103H
+95H
Chg
-----
Decatur
+15H
+15H
Chg
+3
+3
Lincoln
-20H
-25H
Chg
-----
Brazilian Market (previous day):
Mo
Beans
Chg
Meal
Chg
Feb
+68/+75
+3/-1
NA
--Mar +61/+63 +2/+3 +8/+9
--
Oil
+130/+150
+90/+100
Chg
-20
-20/-30
Commitment of Traders Supplemental with Options:
Jan 27, 2013
Long
Short
Net
Large
Actual
106,669
178,830
(72,161)
Funds
Change
(17,608)
+11,550
+29,157
Commercial
Actual
343,310
303,518
+39,792
Hedger
Change
+36,467
+5,845
+30,621
Small
Actual
46,285
142,113
(95,828)
Trader
Change
+48
+1,940
+1,892
Index
Actual
144,757
16,560
128.197
Funds
Change
(728)
(1,155)
+428
CBOT Deliverable Stocks (Thou Bus):
Jan 30, 2015
Week Ago
All Warehouses
All Warehouses
Del
3,602
4,500
Non
723
1,284
Total
4,325
5,784
Year Ago
All Warehouses
5,424
1,711
7,135
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is
suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Information contained herein is believed reliable. Benson Quinn Commodities, Inc. does not guarantee
that such information is accurate or complete. Opinions expressed reflect judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice.
BQCI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company An Introducing Broker for ADMIS
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