1. Healthcare

3QFY2015 Result Update | Automobile
January 28, 2015
Maruti Suzuki
ACCUMULATE
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
Y/E March (` cr)
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Adj. PAT
3QFY15
12,576
1,593
12.7
802
3QFY14
10,894
1,355
12.4
681
% chg (yoy)
15.4
17.6
30bp
17.8
2QFY15
12,304
1,521
12.4
863
% chg (qoq)
2.2
4.7
30bp
(7.0)
`3,725
`4,135
Investment Period
12 Months
Stock Info
Automobile
Sector
1,12,517
Market Cap (` cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Operating performance inline despite one-time charge; lower other income
impacts profitability: Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL)’s 3QFY2015 results were
below our estimates due to lower other income, even as the operating
performance was inline.
Revenues grew strongly by 15% yoy, led by a healthy 12% volume growth.
Volume growth was boosted by improved consumer sentiments and success of
new launches. Realisation/vehicle improved marginally by 3% yoy due to a better
product mix. The EBIDTA margin at 12.7%, improved marginally by 30bp both on
yoy as well as sequential basis and was in line with our estimates. Margins
improved despite a one-time charge of `80cr on account of excise duty on sales
tax subsidy received from the year 2000 to year 2015. Soft commodity prices and
weakening of the JPY led to the improvement in margins. However, lower other
income at `129cr (33% qoq decline), impacted profitability. The net profit, at
`802cr, grew 18% yoy but was lower than our estimate of `857cr.
Outlook and valuation: The passenger vehicle industry is well poised to post a
double-digit growth over the next two years, given the improved consumer
sentiment, better economic outlook and softer fuel prices. Further, MSIL is
focusing on larger cars (two new product launches scheduled over the next one
year) which would boost market share and profitability. Also, the AMT technology
is gaining acceptance which would further enhance the revenues of MSIL. We also
believe discounting levels would come down sharply from 2HFY2016 as demand
picks up and MSIL launches new products. Discount reduction coupled with
operating leverage and the recent weakening of JPY (due to monetary easing by
Japan) would lead to margin expansion. We view MSIL as the best play on
passenger vehicle demand recovery and expect 36% earnings CAGR over
FY2015-2017. We maintain our positive view on the company and retain our
Accumulate rating on the stock with a revised price target of `4,135 (based on a
PE multiple of 19x FY2017 EPS).
Net Debt (` cr)
(9,063)
0.9
Beta
3,758/1,541
52 Week High / Low
69,792
Avg. Daily Volume
5
Face Value (`)
29,559
BSE Sensex
8,914
Nifty
Reuters Code
MRTI.BO
Bloomberg Code
MSIL@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters
56.2
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
19.5
FII / NRIs / OCBs
22.1
2.2
Indian Public / Others
Abs. (%)
3m
1yr
3yr
Sensex
10.0
42.9
71.5
Maruti Suzuki
18.2 138.3
208.4
Key financials (post SPIL merger)
Y/E March (` cr)
Net Sales
% chg
Net Profit
% chg
EBITDA (%)
EPS (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY2014
43,701
1.4
2,783
21.0
11.6
92.1
40.4
5.4
13.3
16.2
2.4
20.6
FY2015E
50,232
14.9
3,614
29.9
12.7
119.6
31.1
4.8
15.4
18.8
2.1
16.2
FY2016E
60,257
20.0
5,468
51.3
14.8
181.0
20.6
4.1
20.1
24.8
1.7
11.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of January 28, 2015
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
FY2017E
70,931
17.7
6,574
20.2
14.5
217.6
17.1
3.4
20.7
25.8
1.3
9.3
Bharat Gianani
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6817
[email protected]
1
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 1: Quarterly financial performance
Y/E March (` cr)
Net Sales
Raw-material cost
3QFY15
3QFY14
% chg (yoy)
2QFY15
% chg (qoq)
9MFY15
9MFY14
% chg (yoy)
12,576
10,894
15.4
12,304
2.2
36,249
31,599
14.7
13.1
8,775
0.6
25,785
22,436
14.9
71.1
71.0
1.4
1,098
967
3.0
3.1
8.8
4,924
4,354
8,826
7,804
(% of Sales)
70.2
71.6
Staff cost
375
300
(% of Sales)
Other Expenses
(% of Sales)
3.0
2.8
1,782
1,435
71.3
25.1
370
24.2
1,638
3.0
13.1
14.2
13.2
13.6
13.8
Total Expenditure
10,983
9,539
15.1
10,783
1.9
31,808
27,757
14.6
Operating Profit
1,593
1,355
17.6
1,521
4.7
4,442
3,842
15.6
12.7
12.4
30
45
(33.0)
35
Depreciation
628
541
16.0
Other Income
129
117
10.3
1,064
886
20.1
OPM (%)
Interest
PBT (excl. Extr. Items)
Extr. Income/(Expense)
PBT (incl. Extr. Items)
(% of Sales)
13.3
13.6
12.4
12.3
12.2
(13.7)
103
132
(21.9)
599
4.8
1,810
1,521
19.0
193
(33.3)
619
422
46.5
1,080
(1.6)
3,147
2,612
20.5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,064
886
20.1
1,080
(1.6)
3,147
2,612
20.5
8.7
8.3
27.9
218
20.0
720
629
22.9
24.1
8.5
8.1
Provision for Taxation
262
204
(% of PBT)
24.6
23.1
Reported PAT
802
681
17.8
863
(7.0)
2,427
1,983
22.4
Adj PAT
802
681
17.8
863
(7.0)
2,427
1,983
22.4
Adj. PATM
8.8
20.2
6.4
6.3
7.0
6.7
6.3
Equity capital (cr)
151.0
151.0
151.0
151.0
151.0
Reported EPS (`)
26.6
22.5
80.3
65.6
17.8
28.6
(7.0)
14.5
22.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 3QFY2015 – Actual vs Angel estimates
Y/E March (` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation (%)
12,576
12,462
0.9
1,593
1,578
0.9
EBITDA margin (%)
12.7
12.7
-
Adj. PAT
802
857
(6.4)
Net Sales
EBITDA
Source: Company, Angel Research
January 28, 2015
2
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Quarterly volume performance
Volume (units)
3QFY15
3QFY14
% chg (yoy)
2QFY15
% chg (qoq)
9MFY15
9MFY14 % chg (yoy)
A: Mini: M800, Alto, WagonR
108,124
115,705
(6.6)
98,992
9.2
309,845
320,040
A: Compact: Swift, Ritz, Celerio,Dzire
121,027
107,405
12.7
136,402
(11.3)
380,726
314,141
21.2
15,308
733
1,988.4
1,658
823.3
17,485
3,199
446.6
244,459
223,843
9.2
237,052
3.1
708,056
637,380
11.1
B: Utility Vehicles: Gypsy, Grand Vitara
17,316
18,222
(5.0)
17,102
1.3
49,685
44,626
11.3
C: Vans: Omni, Eeco
33,427
26,119
28.0
33,533
(0.3)
95,791
73,086
31.1
A: Mid-Size: Ciaz
Total Passenger cars
Total Domestic
(3.2)
295,202
268,184
10.1
287,687
2.6
853,532
755,092
13.0
Total Exports
28,709
19,966
43.8
34,211
(16.1)
92,171
75,078
22.8
Total Volume
323,911
288,150
12.4
321,898
0.6
945,703
830,170
13.9
Source: Company, Angel Research

MSIL maintained its double digit growth trend, reporting a volume growth of
12% in 3QFY2015. Improved consumer sentiment, better economic outlook
and declining fuel prices boosted sales.

Realisation/vehicle grew 3% yoy despite higher discounts, owing to
improvement in the product mix (higher volumes of Ciaz and Celerio). Further,
the Contribution/vehicle improved 8% due to soft commodity prices and
benefit of JPY depreciation on direct imports.

MSIL continued to outperform the passenger vehicle industry, registering a
growth of 14% yoy in YTD FY2015 as compared to industry growth of 4%.
Consequently, MSIL’s market share improved from 41.3% in 9MFY2014 to
45% in 9MFY2015.
Exhibit 4: Volumes grow strongly by 12% yoy
Exhibit 5: Realisation & contribution per vehicle
4,00,000
30
3,50,000
25
3,00,000
3,50,000
80,000
3,40,000
70,000
3,30,000
60,000
0
1,00,000
(5)
50,000
(10)
0
Volumes (units)
Source: Company, Angel Research
January 28, 2015
growth yoy (%)
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
(15)
Realisation/vehicle (LHS)
3QFY15
90,000
2QFY15
3,60,000
5
1,50,000
1QFY15
2,00,000
4QFY14
1,00,000
3QFY14
3,70,000
10
2QFY14
15
1QFY14
1,10,000
4QFY13
3,80,000
3QFY13
20
2QFY13
1,20,000
1QFY13
2,50,000
3,90,000
Contribution/vehicle (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
3
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 6: Domestic PV market share trend
Exhibit 7: Discounting per vehicle trend
50
20,000
50
15,000
30
10,000
10
5,000
(10)
0
(30)
Discounting/vehicle
Source: Company, Angel Research
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
1QFY13
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
30
4QFY14
34.4
34
3QFY14
40.7
2QFY14
45.2
1QFY14
38
40.4
40.0
44.0
4QFY13
40.2
44.2
3QFY13
42
42.8
42.6
70
2QFY13
46
25,000
45.9
Growth (%)
Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Quarterly revenue and realization performance
1QFY2014
2QFY2014
3QFY2014
4QFY2014
1QFY2015
2QFY2015
3QFY2015
9,088
8,693
9,691
10,696
9,831
10,595
11,039
(3.6)
31.5
0.6
(7.2)
8.2
21.9
13.9
370,421
359,859
361,343
358,214
363,228
368,294
373,952
3.4
14.3
0.8
(4.0)
(1.9)
2.3
3.5
1,224
Domestic revenue (` cr)
Change yoy (%)
Domestic realization (`)
Change yoy (%)
Export revenue (` cr)
Change yoy (%)
Export realization (`)
907
1,519
929
1,122
1,243
1,401
(17.5)
84.3
(29.6)
(26.7)
37.0
(7.8)
31.8
430,102
446,450
465,291
427,038
424,943
409,517
426,347
27.6
10.6
14.5
(2.8)
(1.2)
(8.3)
(8.4)
Change yoy (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

The EBIDTA margin, at 12.7%, grew marginally by 30bp on both yoy as well
as sequential basis. Softer raw material prices coupled with benefit of JPY
depreciation on direct imports boosted margins.

Lower other income at `129cr (33% qoq decline) and higher taxation negated
the benefits of improved operating performance. Net profit at `802.2cr grew
18% yoy.
Exhibit 9: EBITDA margins in line
Exhibit 10: Lower other income impacts PAT
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
14
1,400
12
1,200
10
1,000
1,000
800
600
8
800
6
6
600
4
4
400
2
200
0
0
EBIDTA (`cr; LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
January 28, 2015
EBIDTA Margin (%; RHS)
8
2
PAT (`cr; LHS)
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
0
1QFY13
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
400
200
0
10
PAT Margin (%; RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
4
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Conference call – Key highlights
January 28, 2015

MSIL has received an encouraging response for its new products, enabling it
to gain market share. MSIL’s market share improved from 42% in FY2014 to
45% in 9MFY2015 on back of successful launches of Celerio, Ciaz, refreshed
Swift and Alto K10 with AMT. MSIL has planned two new launches viz a
compact UV and a crossover vehicle over the next one year which will enable
it to retain market share amid rising competition.

MSIL is witnessing robust demand for its automatic transmission variants. MSIL
earlier introduced the AMT technology in the Celerio and the new Alto K10.
The company’s current AMT capacity stands at 4,000 units/month, while it’s
planning to raise capacity.

The passenger vehicle industry is witnessing a surge in demand for petrol
vehicles given the narrowing gap between petrol and diesel. In 3QFY2015,
petrol vehicle volumes grew 20% yoy while diesel vehicle volumes declined
13%. The share of petrol variants improved from 45% in 3QFY2014 to 53% in
3QFY2015.

During the quarter, MSIL recognized a one-time charge of `70cr on account
of excise duty on sales tax subsidy received between year 2000 to year 2015.

MSIL is currently operating at 83% capacity utilization. The construction of the
Gujarat plant has already commenced and is expected to be fully operational
by the middle of 2017. Shareholder approval for the proposed manufacturing
facility by Suzuki Motor Corporation, at Gujarat, would be taken within the
next four to six months.

Discounting levels continued to remain high as the passenger vehicle industry
is still in early stages of recovery. Discounting/vehicle at `21,000 grew 10%
yoy but remained flat on a sequential basis. MSIL expects higher discounting
to continue upto 2HFY2016.

MSIL expects 4QFY2015 sales to be under pressure on account of withdrawal
of excise reduction benefits and high base of the corresponding period last
year.

The proportion of first time buyers has improved from 37% in 3QFY2014 and
from 42% in 1HFY2015 to 44% in 3QFY2015, thus resulting in a recovery in
the passenger vehicle space. MSIL expects higher economic growth and lower
inflation and interest rates to boost passenger vehicle industry over the next
one to two years.

MSIL is targeting an export volume growth of 18-20% in FY2015, led by the
launch of new models.

MSIL is planning a capital expenditure of `3,500cr for FY2015.
5
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Investment arguments
January 28, 2015

Per capita car penetration near inflexion point: In FY2009, car penetration in
India was estimated at around 12 vehicles/1,000 people compared to around
21 vehicles/1,000 people in China. Moreover, India’s PPP-based per capita is
estimated to approach US$7,000 over the next four to five years, which is
expected to be the inflexion point for the country’s car demand. Further, MSIL
has a sizeable competitive advantage over new foreign entrants due to its
widespread distribution network (nearly 3,000 and 1,200 service and sales
outlets, respectively), which is not easy to replicate.

Suzuki focusing to make Maruti a small car manufacturing hub: Suzuki Japan
is focusing to make MSIL a global small car manufacturing hub to cater to the
increasing global demand for small cars due to rising fuel prices and stricter
emission standards. Thus, we believe there is a huge potential for the
company to increase its market share in the export market. Moreover, R&D
capabilities, so far largely housed at Suzuki Japan, are progressively moving
to MSIL. The company is aiming to achieve full model change capabilities over
the next couple of years, which will enable it to launch new models and
variants at a much faster pace. This is expected to reduce its royalty payment
in the medium-term (2-3 years).

Merger with SPIL to be a positive in the long run: MSIL has merged its
associate company, Suzuki Powertrain India (SPIL) with itself. SPIL
manufactures and supplies diesel engines and transmission components for
vehicles. SPIL currently supplies ~90% of its production to MSIL. We believe
the merger of SPIL with MSIL is a positive for MSIL given that MSIL itself is
setting up a new diesel engine facility (capacity of 300,000 units by FY2015)
in Gurgaon. Further, with foray increased product introductions in the diesel
segment (LCV and compact utility vehicle), the integration of SPIL will result in
better control over diesel engine sourcing, flexibility in production planning,
and managing fluctuations in market demand. Additionally, single
management control of diesel engine operations will result in better sourcing,
localization and cost-reduction.
6
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Outlook and valuation
The passenger vehicle industry is well poised to post a double-digit growth over the
next two years, given the improved consumer sentiment, better economic outlook
and softer fuel prices. Further, MSIL is focusing on larger cars (two new product
launches scheduled over the next one year) which would boost market share and
profitability. Also, the AMT technology is gaining acceptance which would further
enhance the revenues of MSIL. We also believe discounting levels would come
down sharply from 2HFY2016 as the demand picks up and MSIL launches new
products. Discount reduction coupled with operating leverage and the recent
weakening of the JPY (due to monetary easing by Japan) would lead to margin
expansion. We view MSIL as the best play on the passenger vehicle demand
recovery and expect 36% earnings CAGR over FY2015-2017 . We maintain our
positive view on the company and retain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a
revised price target of `4,135 (based on a PE multiple of 19x FY2017 EPS).
Exhibit 11: Volume assumptions
Y/E March
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
FY2017E
Mini: M800, Alto, WagonR
573,238
491,389
429,569
436,032
415,584
443,972
488,269
Compact: Swift, Ritz, Celerio, Dzire
369,754
345,886
424,873
450,393
535,968
621,722
683,895
12,000
36,000
57,000
69,000
Compact Utility Vehicle
Mid-Size: Ciaz, Crossover
Executive: Kizashi
Total passenger cars
UV - Gypsy, Vitara, Ertiga
Vans - Omni, Versa, Eeco
Total passenger vehicles - domestic
Total passenger vehicles - exports
23,317
17,997
6,707
4,029
27,000
138
458
188
1
-
966,447
855,730
861,337
890,455
978,552
1,134,694
1,277,164
5,666
6,525
79,192
61,119
67,231
75,299
82,828
160,626
144,061
110,517
102,115
132,750
150,007
165,008
1,132,739
1,006,316
1,051,046
1,053,689
1,178,532
1,360,000
1,525,000
138,266
127,379
120,388
101,352
119,171
125,000
151,000
1,271,005
1,133,695
1,171,434
1,155,041
1,297,703
1,485,000
1,697,000
24.8
(10.8)
3.3
(1.4)
12.4
14.4
14.3
Light Commercial Vehicle
Total sales (domestic + exports)
% chg
21,000
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company background
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL), a subsidiary of Suzuki Motor Corporation (SMC), Japan
(which holds a 56% stake), is the largest passenger car company in India,
accounting for ~50% of the domestic passenger car market. MSIL derives ~60%
of its overall sales from the small car segment and has a dominant position in the
segment with a market share of ~50%, led by popular models like Alto, Wagon R
and Swift. The company operates from two facilities in India (Gurgaon and
Manesar) with an installed capacity of 1.5mn units. Also, MSIL has steadily
increased its presence internationally and exports now account for ~10% of its
overall sales volume.
January 28, 2015
7
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Profit and loss statement (post SPIL merger)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E
Total operating income
35,587
% chg
43,701
50,232
60,257
70,931
(2.8)
22.5
1.4
14.9
20.0
17.7
Total expenditure
33,074
39,358
38,611
43,849
51,362
60,656
Net raw material costs
28,108
32,559
31,314
35,449
41,647
49,062
Employee expenses
844
1,070
1,368
1,520
1,781
2,095
Other expenditure
4,122
5,730
5,928
6,880
7,934
9,500
EBITDA
2,513
4,230
5,090
6,384
8,895
10,275
% chg
(30.9)
68.3
44.8
25.4
39.3
15.5
7.1
9.7
11.6
12.7
14.8
14.5
Depreciation & amortization
1,138
1,861
2,084
2,460
2,640
2,790
EBIT
1,375
2,368
3,834
4,867
7,355
8,790
% chg
(% of total op. income)
(47.6)
72.3
27.7
26.9
51.1
19.5
(% of total op. income)
3.9
5.4
8.8
9.7
12.2
12.4
Interest and other charges
55
190
176
148
160
140
Other income
827
812
829
944
1,100
1,305
Recurring PBT
2,146
2,991
3,659
4,719
7,195
8,650
% chg
(31.0)
39.4
27.7
29.0
52.5
20.2
-
-
-
-
-
-
2,146
2,991
3,659
4,719
7,195
8,650
Extraordinary income/ (exp.)
PBT
Tax
511
599
876
1,105
1,727
2,076
(% of PBT)
23.8
20.0
23.9
23.4
24.0
24.0
PAT (reported)
1,635
2,392
2,783
3,614
5,468
6,574
ADJ. PAT
1,635
2,392
2,783
3,614
5,468
6,574
% chg
(28.6)
46.3
21.0
29.9
51.3
20.2
(% of total op. income)
Basic EPS (`)
Adj. EPS (`)
% chg
January 28, 2015
43,588
4.6
5.5
6.4
7.2
9.1
9.3
54.1
79.2
92.1
119.6
181.0
217.6
54.1
79.2
92.1
119.6
181.0
217.6
(28.6)
46.3
15.8
29.9
51.3
20.2
8
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Balance sheet statement (post SPIL merger)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
FY2017E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
145
151
151
151
151
151
Reserves & surplus
15,043
18,428
20,827
23,357
27,075
31,545
Shareholders’ Funds
15,187
18,579
20,978
23,508
27,226
31,696
1,078
1,389
1,685
1,400
1,400
1,300
302
409
587
587
587
587
Total loans
Deferred tax liability
Other long term liabilities
97
104
239
239
239
239
169
226
198
198
198
198
16,834
20,706
23,686
25,931
29,649
34,019
14,735
19,801
22,702
26,202
29,202
31,702
Less: Acc. depreciation
7,214
10,002
11,911
14,372
17,012
19,802
Net Block
7,521
9,799
10,790
11,830
12,190
11,900
942
1,942
2,621
2,500
2,500
2,500
Investments
6,147
7,078
10,118
8,849
9,849
10,849
Long term loans and adv.
1,341
1,279
1,638
1,712
2,050
2,418
26
895
9
9
9
9
Current assets
6,325
5,695
5,359
8,168
11,289
16,036
Cash
2,436
775
630
3,303
5,590
9,279
Long term provisions
Total Liabilities
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
Capital work-in-progress
Other noncurrent assets
Loans & advances
778
1,115
1,251
1,380
1,620
1,924
Other
3,111
3,805
3,478
3,485
4,079
4,834
Current liabilities
5,468
5,982
6,849
7,137
8,238
9,692
Net current assets
Total Assets
857
(287)
(1,491)
1,031
3,052
6,344
16,834
20,706
23,686
25,931
29,649
34,019
Note: Cash and bank balance includes term deposits with banks
January 28, 2015
9
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Cash flow statement (post SPIL merger)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E
Profit before tax
2,146
2,991
3,659
4,719
7,195
8,650
Depreciation
1,138
1,861
1,910
2,460
2,640
2,790
227
512
2,112
152
266
397
(251)
(533)
(876)
(1,105)
(1,727)
(2,076)
Change in working capital
Direct taxes paid
Others
(700)
(447)
(242)
-
-
-
2,560
4,384
6,563
6,226
8,375
9,760
(Inc.)/Dec. in fixed assets
(2,963)
(3,810)
(3,580)
(3,379)
(3,000)
(2,500)
(Inc.)/Dec. in investments
(782)
(916)
(3,040)
1,269
(1,000)
(1,000)
649
1,152
-
-
-
-
(3,096)
(3,574)
(6,620)
(2,109)
(4,000)
(3,500)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Operations
Others
Cash Flow from Investing
Issue of equity
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
911
(514)
296
(285)
-
(100)
(217)
(217)
(696)
(1,084)
(1,750)
(2,104)
Others
(78)
(235)
312
-
-
-
Cash Flow from Financing
617
(966)
(88)
(1,369)
(1,750)
(2,204)
81
(156)
(145)
2,747
2,625
4,057
Opening Cash balances
96
281
775
630
3,303
5,590
Closing Cash balances
176
125
630
3,303
5,590
9,279
Dividend paid (Incl. Tax)
Inc./(Dec.) in cash
Note: Closing Cash balances excludes term deposits with banks and unclaimed dividend accounts
January 28, 2015
10
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Key ratios
Y/E March
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
68.9
47.0
40.4
31.1
20.6
17.1
P/CEPS
40.6
26.5
23.1
18.5
13.9
11.5
7.4
6.1
5.4
4.8
4.1
3.4
P/BV
Dividend yield (%)
0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.6
1.9
EV/Sales
3.1
2.5
2.4
2.1
1.7
1.3
44.2
30.7
20.6
16.2
11.3
9.3
6.6
5.3
4.4
4.0
3.4
2.8
EPS (Basic)
54.1
79.2
92.1
119.6
181.0
217.6
EPS (fully diluted)
54.1
79.2
92.1
119.6
181.0
217.6
Cash EPS
91.8
140.8
161.1
201.1
268.4
310.0
7.5
8.0
23.0
35.9
57.9
69.6
502.8
615.0
694.5
778.2
901.3
1049.3
3.9
5.4
8.8
9.7
12.2
12.4
Tax retention ratio
76.2
80.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Asset turnover (x)
2.7
2.5
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.9
ROIC (Post-tax)
7.9
11.0
12.7
16.5
23.2
27.0
EV/EBITDA
EV / Total Assets
Per Share Data (`)
DPS
Book Value
Du-pont Analysis
EBIT margin
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
Leverage (x)
Operating ROE
6.1
12.3
7.9
8.1
8.7
8.2
(0.5)
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.6)
7.0
11.5
10.6
12.7
15.7
15.8
8.8
12.6
16.2
18.8
24.8
25.8
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
18.3
25.1
16.6
21.5
30.6
35.5
ROE
11.3
14.2
13.3
15.4
20.1
20.7
2.7
2.5
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.2
16
15
14
13
13
13
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
Inventory / Sales (days)
Receivables (days)
Payables (days)
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
9
10
12
11
11
11
37
39
52
47
45
45
(12)
(11)
(25)
(22)
(21)
(21)
(0.5)
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.6)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
January 28, 2015
Net debt to EBITDA
(3.0)
(1.5)
(1.8)
(1.7)
(1.6)
(1.8)
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
24.9
12.5
21.8
32.8
46.0
62.8
11
Maruti Suzuki | 3QFY2015 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot
testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.
While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be
regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking
or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or
in the past.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from
or in connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may
have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
Maruti Suzuki
No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock
No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
January 28, 2015
Buy (> 15%)
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Sell (< -15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
12