1. Art and Diseño

ADMISI Commodities Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
Economic Data
January 30, 2015
Country
NZD
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
GBP
AUD
JPY
CHF
EUR
GBP
GBP
EUR
EUR
EUR
CAD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Economic Data
Building Permits M/M Dec
Unemployment Rate Dec
Household Spending Y/Y Dec
National CPI Core Y/Y Dec
Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jan
Industrial Production M/M Dec P
GfK Consumer Sentiment Jan
PPI Q/Q Q4
Housing Starts Y/Y Dec
KOF Leading Indicator Jan
Italian Unemployment Rate Dec P
Mortgage Approvals Dec
M4 Money Supply M/M Dec
Eurozone Unemployment Rate Dec
Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jan
Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jan A
GDP M/M Nov
Employment Cost Index Q4
GDP (Annualized) Q4 A
GDP Price Index Q4 A
Chicago PMI Jan
U. of Michigan Confidence Jan F
Actual
-2.10%
3.40%
-3.40%
2.50%
2.20%
1.00%
1
0.10%
-14.70%
97
12.90%
60.0K
0.10%
11.40%
-0.60%
0.50%
-0.20%
0.60%
2.60%
0.00%
59.4
98.1
Expected
Actual
0.10%
49.7
Expected
3.50%
-2.30%
2.60%
2.20%
1.20%
-2
0.30%
-14.80%
94.7
13.50%
59.0K
0.50%
11.50%
-0.50%
0.70%
0.10%
0.70%
3.10%
0.90%
58
98.2
Previous
10.00%
3.50%
-2.50%
2.70%
2.30%
-0.50%
-4
0.20%
-14.30%
98.7
13.40%
59.0K
0.00%
11.50%
-0.20%
0.70%
0.30%
0.70%
5.00%
1.40%
58.3
98.2
February 02, 2015
Country
AUD
CNY
CHF
EUR
EUR
GBP
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Economic Data
TD Securities Inflation M/M Jan
HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jan F
SVME-PMI Jan
Italy Manufacturing PMI Jan
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan F
PMI Manufacturing Jan
Personal Income Dec
Personal Spending Dec
PCE Deflator M/M Dec
PCE Deflator Y/Y Dec
PCE Core M/M Dec
PCE Core Y/Y Dec
Construction Spending M/M Dec
ISM Manufacturing Jan
ISM Prices Paid Jan
49.8
54.5
49.3
51
52.9
0.20%
-0.30%
-0.30%
0.00%
1.40%
0.70%
55
40
Previous
0.00%
49.8
54
48.4
51
52.5
0.40%
0.60%
-0.20%
1.20%
0.00%
1.40%
-0.30%
55.5
38.5
1
ADMISI Commodities Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
International Market Recap
LME
Previous
Close
Open
High
Net
Chg.
66.50
245.00
39.00
Unch
27.00
Low
Copper
5427.50 5494.00 5422.50 5507.00 5365.00
Nickel
14925.00 15170.00 14930.00 15170.00 14710.00
Aluminium 1821.00 1860.00 1823.50 1867.00 1817.00
Lead
1858.50 1858.50 1864.00 1874.00 1846.00
Zinc
2093.00 2120.00 2093.00 2125.25 2080.00
Comex
Copper
FEB5
MAR5
APR5
MAY5
JUN5
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
2.471
2.452
2.455
2.452
2.454
2.528
2.495
2.496
2.491
2.492
2.465
2.456
2.435
2.459
2.481
2.540
2.519
2.514
2.513
2.500
2.465
2.430
2.435
2.428
2.459
Spread
FEB5
MAR5
APR5
MAY5
MAR5
0.034
APR5
0.033
-0.001
MAY5
0.038
0.004
0.005
%
Chg.
1.23
1.64
2.14
1.29
Net
Chg.
0.058
0.043
0.041
0.039
0.037
Volume
18507
5265
13346
4265
7485
% Vol.
Chg.
0.71
65.00
11.09
24.85
-6.67
%
Chg.
2.33
1.75
1.67
1.59
1.53
JUN5
0.037
0.003
0.004
-0.001
Indian Market Recap
Copper Previous
Close
Feb-15
Apr-15
342.85 336.00 343.80 334.00
347.05 340.50 347.85 338.50
337.25
341.75
Open
High
Low
Spread
Feb-15
%
Chg.
1.66
1.55
Volume
51438
1095
% Vol.
Chg.
-13.43
7.88
OI
15675
1564
OI
Chg.
-864
106
Apr-15
-4.20
Nickel
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
921.10
926.20
931.30
918.30
941.90
949.60
918.00
922.90
928.80
925.60
945.00
951.90
912.00
914.10
921.80
Spread
Jan-15
Feb-15
Net
Chg.
5.60
5.30
Feb-15
-23.60
Net
Chg.
-2.80
15.70
18.30
%
Chg.
-0.30
1.70
1.96
Volume
9743
22470
227
% Vol.
Chg.
-56.31
736.56
980.95
OI
1898
2565
122
OI
Chg.
-1557
1333
68
Mar-15
-31.30
-7.70
2
ADMISI Commodities Research
February 02, 2015
Aluminium Previous
Close
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
113.40 112.00 113.50 111.60
115.35 112.25 115.50 112.00
115.95 112.70 116.00 112.70
112.25
112.45
113.10
Open
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
High
Spread
Jan-15
Feb-15
Lead
Previous
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
114.10
115.30
115.45
Close
Open
High
Zinc
Previous
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
129.15
129.65
129.70
Close
Open
High






Low
Low
Volume
2968
7515
162
% Vol.
Chg.
-61.62
403.69
2214.29
OI
890
3038
90
OI
Chg.
-615
1370
78
%
Volume
Chg.
-0.13
3326
0.22
6456
1.00
76
% Vol.
Chg.
-61.22
264.33
590.91
OI
877
1292
31
OI
Chg.
-818
629
21
Mar-15
-2.65
-1.05
Net
Chg.
1.15
2.30
2.80
Feb-15
-1.65
%
Chg.
1.02
2.58
2.52
Mar-15
-2.55
-0.60
Net
Chg.
-0.15
0.25
1.15
Feb-15
-1.60
130.30 128.90 130.55 128.10
131.95 129.50 132.05 128.50
132.50 129.85 132.70 129.30
Spread
Jan-15
Feb-15

Feb-15
-1.95
113.95 113.70 114.75 113.30
115.55 115.00 116.40 114.45
116.60 115.45 117.20 115.45
Spread
Jan-15
Feb-15
Net
Chg.
1.15
2.90
2.85
Low
%
Chg.
0.89
1.77
2.16
Volume
5382
8856
130
% Vol.
Chg.
-55.35
252.83
1344.44
OI
1004
4148
80
OI
Chg.
-810
1442
50
Mar-15
-2.20
-0.55
London Metal Exchange ends higher on Friday following upbeat European retail sales data and as
some investors covered short positions ahead of the weekend.
German retail sales posted their biggest yearly rise in 2-1/2 years in December, while sales in
Spain and consumer spending in France was also stronger than expected, lifting European shares.
Prices were also supported after factory growth in China shrank for the first time in more than
two years, fueling hopes for increased stimulus from the world's second biggest economy.
The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.8 in January, the National Bureau of
Statistics said on Sunday, a low last seen in September 2012 and a whisker below the 50-point level
that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.
Also, a private business survey on Monday showed that activity in China's factory sector shrank
for a second month in January. The final HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.7, a
touch below its 49.8 flash reading, and after dipping to 49.6 in December.
The dollar remained broadly supported as the release of tepid U.S. data failed to dampen
optimism over the strength of the country's economic recovery.
In a report, Bureau of Economic Analysis said U.S. gross domestic product rose 2.6% in the last
quarter of 2014, down from a previous estimate of 3.0% and from a growth rate of 5.0% in the
three months to September.
3
ADMISI Commodities Research
February 02, 2015







Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls
report for further indications on the strength of the recovery in the labor market.
The Euro ended lower after Eurostat reported that the annual rate of euro zone inflation fell by
0.6% in January, after a 0.2% slip in December.
The downside was limited after euro zone’s unemployment rate ticked down to 11.4% in
December from 11.5% the previous month.
Meanwhile, Greece’s new government said it will not cooperate with the International Monetary
Fund and the European Union and will not seek an extension to its bailout program, underlining
fears over a clash with its international creditors.
The daily inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed a rise in the
inventory levels of Copper and Nickel. Meanwhile, the inventory levels of Aluminium, Zinc and
Lead fell on Friday.
Data from CFTC showed that speculators are bearish on Comex Copper.
Domestic base metals end with gains on MCX on Friday, tracking firm overseas prices.
Commodity
Aluminium
Copper
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
LME Official Stocks in MT
29-Jan-15 30-Jan-15 Net Chg.
4,058,300
4,048,900
-9,400
247,450
248,125
675
425,562
426,240
678
215,050
215,000
-50
633,175
630,750
-2,425
Left – CFTC net positions of copper, Right – LME Copper
% Chg.
-0.23
0.27
0.16
-0.02
-0.38
Source: Reuters
LME Copper - (5516.00)
Trade Recommendations – None.
4
ADMISI Commodities Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
Source: Reuters
MCX Copper February - (344.90)
Trade Recommendations – Sell in the range 338-340 with targets 331-330 with a stop loss at 345.00. Exit
this call, stop loss triggered.
Outlook – LME Copper could continue to remain range bound to weak. Downside could be limited on
more stimulus hopes from China. Resistance is at 5608. Support is at 5441 and 5346. MCX could trade
firm, tracking firm overseas prices. However, the Indian Rupee has appreciated today and could limit
upside. Support is at of 338.85 and 332.55. Resistance is at 349.15 and 355.85.
Left – LME warehouse inventories, Right – LME Nickel
Source: Reuters
LME Nickel - (15095.00)
Trade Recommendations – None.
5
ADMISI Commodities Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
Source: Reuters
MCX Nickel February - (938.7)
Trade Recommendations – None.
Outlook – LME Nickel could trade firm. Support is at 15027 and 14905. Resistance is at 15150 and 15270.
MCX could trade firm, tracking firm overseas prices. However, the Indian Rupee has appreciated today
and could limit upside. Resistance is at 945.60 and 970.85. Support is at 924.35 and 913.95.
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