Havells India - Business Standard

Results Review
INDIA
INDUSTRIALS
28 January 2015
HOLD
Havells India
TP: INR 260.00
 3.1%
HAVL IN
Revenue growth disappoints; reiterate HOLD
HAVL’s Q3FY15 results (consol. PAT: Rs 350mn) came in below estimates
on weaker sales growth in the standalone business (+5% YoY) and one-time
expenses in Sylvania (€ 9mn). Revenue growth in the cable segment was hit
REPORT AUTHORS
by weak industrial activity and lower commodity prices. While the
company’s profitability profile remains impressive, we believe its
Abhishek Raj
sustainability at current levels is low given the relatively low entry barriers
to its product profile. Maintain HOLD with a Mar’16 TP of Rs 260.
 Revenue growth decelerates across segments: Revenue growth for the cable
business plunged to 4% YoY (vs. 26% in H1) due to weakness in industrial activity
and a drop in commodity prices. Revenue/volume growth in domestic cable stood
at 6%/9% for the quarter, while lighting segment revenues remained flat YoY on
lower growth in the non-LED business.
 EBITDA margins improve on higher contribution margin, lower ad spends:
Standalone EBITDA margins were up 50bps YoY to 14.3% on higher contribution
margin and lower ad spends (-30bps YoY to 2.6% of sales). Operating margins for
the cable segment expanded on higher growth in domestic cables, while higher
lighting segment margins were driven by better cost management and in house
manufacturing.
 Profitability in Sylvania hit by one-offs: While Sylvania’s revenue growth in
Europe/US & Latin America came in at 3%/12%, profitability was affected by
pension liabilities of € 6.1mn and a charge of € 2.9mn due to sales return/rebates in
Thailand (excluding these items, EBITDA margins for Sylvania were largely flat YoY
at 7.7%).
 Reiterate HOLD: Our Mar’16 TP of Rs 260 values the standalone business at Rs 240
(22x target multiple) and Sylvania at Rs 20 (10x).
+91 22 6766 3485
[email protected]
Misal Singh
+91 22 6766 3466
[email protected]
PRICE CLOSE (28 Jan 15)
INR 268.45
MARKET CAP
INR 167.6 bln
USD 2.7 bln
SHARES O/S
624.5 mln
FREE FLOAT
38.0%
3M AVG DAILY VOLUME/VALUE
3.1 mln / USD 14.2 mln
52 WK HIGH
52 WK LOW
INR 346.90
INR 144.00
Financial Highlights
Y/E 31 Mar
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue (INR mln)
72,479
81,858
86,240
96,586
107,491
(INR)
340
EBITDA (INR mln)
6,916
7,425
8,525
10,883
12,619
Adjusted net profit (INR mln)
4,627
4,463
5,269
7,046
8,024
240
7.4
7.2
8.4
11.3
12.9
190
25.1
(3.5)
18.0
33.7
13.9
140
Adjusted EPS (INR)
Adjusted EPS growth (%)
DPS (INR)
1.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
ROIC (%)
28.6
26.2
24.1
25.1
26.9
Adjusted ROAE (%)
38.6
28.7
29.0
31.8
29.2
Adjusted P/E (x)
36.2
37.5
31.8
23.8
20.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
25.2
23.1
19.6
15.7
13.2
P/BV (x)
11.6
10.1
8.5
6.8
5.5
290
Stock Price
Index Price
29,400
24,400
19,400
90
40
14,400
Source: Company, Bloomberg, RCML Research
This report has been prepared by Religare Capital Markets Limited or one of its affiliates. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure and Disclaimer section at the end of
this report. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered with FINRA regulation and may not be subject to FINRA/NYSE restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and
trading securities held by a research analyst account.
HOLD
Havells India
TP: INR 260.00
 3.1%
HAVL IN
Results Review
INDIA
INDUSTRIALS
Other highlights

Higher depreciation, taxes hit profits: HAVL’s Q3FY15 standalone PAT was pulled
down by higher depreciation (+42% YoY to Rs 2.3bn in view of the new Companies
Act, 2013). Marginal tax rate for the quarter increased to 27% (vs. 22% YoY) on
reduction/expiry of tax exemptions for some manufacturing facilities.

Strong growth in LED portfolio: Within the lighting segment (revenues flat YoY),
revenue growth in LED was up 63% YoY. While revenue growth in industrial cables
improved merely 1% YoY on weak demand, growth in domestic cables was up 6%
YoY.

9MFY15 ad spends up 80bps YoY to 3.3% of sales: Ad spends for the quarter were
down 30bps YoY to 2.6% of sales, while for 9MFY15 increased 80bps YoY to 3.3% of
sales.

Net working capital expands on lower creditor days: Net working capital expanded
by 16 days YoY to 24 days at Q3FY15-end on lower creditor days (-15 days YoY to 42
days), while inventory/debtor days remained largely flat YoY.

Capital employed continues to expand in cable segment: While cable business sales
were up only 4% YoY, capital employed for the segment expanded by 24% YoY (vs.
29%/40% expansion in Q1/Q2). In contrast, capital employed for the switchgear
segment continued to decline (-9% in Q3 vs. 12% in Q2). Overall capital employed
was up 12% YoY.
Depreciation increases 42% YoY in
view of the new Companies Act, 2013
Fig 1 - Actual versus estimates, Standalone
Rs mn
Actual
Estimated
Variance
Net Sales
12,474
13,169
(5.3%)
EBTIDA
EBTIDA margin
Adj. PAT
1,781
1,735
2.7%
14.3%
13.2%
110 bps
1,162
1,101
5.6%
Source: Company, RCML Research
28 January 2015
Page 2 of 7
HOLD
Havells India
TP: INR 260.00
 3.1%
HAVL IN
Results Review
INDIA
INDUSTRIALS
Fig 2 - Quarterly performance, Standalone
Standalone (Rs mn)
Q3FY15
Q3FY14
YoY
Q2FY15
QoQ
12,474
11,844
5.3
13,651
(8.6)
7,523
7,353
2.3
8,233
(8.6)
808
527
53.3
783
3.2
Other expenditure
2,363
2,332
1.3
2,832
(16.6)
EBTIDA
1,781
1,633
9.1
1,804
(1.3)
230
161
42.3
225
2.1
1,552
1,471
5.4
1,579
(1.7)
Total Revenue
Direct costs
Employees Cost
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
72
85
(16.0)
59
21.0
Other income
89
107
(17.0)
115
(22.7)
Exceptional items gains/(loss)
22
66
(66.9)
30
(25.7)
1,591
1,559
2.0
1,664
(4.4)
428
345
24.3
468
(8.4)
1,162
1,215
(4.3)
1,196
(2.8)
15
44
(66.9)
20
(25.7)
1,147
1,170
(2.0)
1,176
(2.5)
27%
22%
484 bps
28%
(118 bps)
60.3
62.1
(177 bps)
60.3
(1 bps)
6.5
4.4
203 bps
5.7
74 bps
Other expenses
18.9
19.7
(75 bps)
20.7
(180 bps)
EBTIDA margin
14.3
13.8
49 bps
13.2
106 bps
EBIT margin
12.4
12.4
1 bps
11.6
87 bps
Other income
0.7
0.9
(19 bps)
0.8
(13 bps)
PAT margin
9.3
10.3
(94 bps)
8.8
55 bps
PBT
Total Provision for Taxation :
PAT
Extraordinary items
PAT after extraordinary items
Tax rate, %
As a % of sales
RM cost
Employee
Source: Company, RCML Research
28 January 2015
Page 3 of 7
HOLD
Havells India
TP: INR 260.00
 3.1%
HAVL IN
Results Review
INDIA
INDUSTRIALS
Fig 3 - Segmental performance, Standalone
Rs mn
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Switchgear
2,760
3,135
3,093
3,204
3,073
3,387
3,275
Cable
4,049
4,874
4,751
5,591
5,348
5,914
4,951
Lighting & Fixtures
1,482
1,798
1,935
1,993
1,654
1,936
1,940
Electrical Consumer Durables
2,223
1,933
2,066
2,313
2,693
2,414
2,308
10,513
11,740
11,844
13,100
12,769
13,651
12,474
Switchgear
14%
23%
15%
3%
11%
8%
6%
Cable
(6%)
25%
16%
21%
32%
21%
4%
Lighting & Fixtures
(1%)
15%
9%
9%
12%
8%
0%
6%
19%
2%
8%
21%
25%
12%
Switchgear
996
1,146
1,096
794
1,120
1,239
1,125
Cable & Wire
405
499
486
720
588
709
585
Lighting & Fixtures
372
405
450
559
430
521
535
Electrical Consumer Durables
597
529
541
638
683
600
564
Switchgear
36.1%
36.6%
35.4%
24.8%
36.5%
36.6%
34.3%
Cable & Wire
10.0%
10.2%
10.2%
12.9%
11.0%
12.0%
11.8%
Lighting & Fixtures
25.1%
22.5%
23.3%
28.1%
26.0%
26.9%
27.6%
Electrical Consumer Durables
26.9%
27.4%
26.2%
27.6%
25.4%
24.9%
24.4%
Switchgear
3,553
3,549
3,402
3,027
3,054
3,108
3,093
Cable & Wire
3,310
3,177
3,093
3,296
4,265
4,458
3,840
Lighting & Fixtures
2,683
2,694
2,467
2,526
2,592
2,767
2,462
Electrical Consumer Durables
1,454
1,563
1,785
1,648
1,581
2,063
2,533
8,680
9,953
11,404
10,801
10,858
11,237
12,867
19,680
20,937
22,151
21,299
22,350
23,632
24,794
Q3FY15
Q3FY14
YoY
Q2FY15
QoQ
110.8
111.6
(0.7)
112.5
(1.5)
Segment Revenue
Income from Operations
Growth YoY %
Electrical Consumer Durables
EBIT
EBIT Margins (%)
Capital Employed
Segment Assets - Segment Liabilities
Others
Total
Source: Company, RCML Research
Fig 4 - Sylvania performance
(Euro mn)
Net Revenue
Europe
67.7
66
2.6
65.1
4.0
USA & Latin America
40.2
37.6
6.9
41
(2.0)
EBITDA, excluding the impact of pension liability
5.6
8.7
(35.6)
5.5
1.8
Europe
5.9
6.7
(11.9)
2.6
126.9
USA & Latin America
2.6
1.8
44.4
2.7
(3.7)
Overall EBITDA margin %
5.1%
7.8%
(274 bps)
4.9%
17 bps
Europe
8.7%
10.2%
(144 bps)
4.0%
472 bps
USA & Latin America
6.5%
4.8%
168 bps
6.6%
(12 bps)
Source: Company, RCML Research
28 January 2015
Page 4 of 7
HOLD
Havells India
TP: INR 260.00
 3.1%
HAVL IN
Results Review
INDIA
INDUSTRIALS
Per Share Data
Y/E 31 Mar (INR)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Reported EPS
9.3
7.2
8.4
11.3
12.9
Adjusted EPS
7.4
7.2
8.4
11.3
12.9
DPS
1.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
23.1
26.7
31.6
39.4
48.8
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
2.4
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.6
EV/EBITDA
25.2
23.1
19.6
15.7
13.2
Adjusted P/E
36.2
37.5
31.8
23.8
20.9
P/BV
11.6
10.1
8.5
6.8
5.5
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
EBITDA margin
9.5
9.1
9.9
11.3
11.7
EBIT margin
8.0
7.7
8.5
10.0
10.5
Adjusted profit margin
6.4
5.5
6.1
7.3
7.5
Adjusted ROAE
38.6
28.7
29.0
31.8
29.2
ROCE
24.9
19.8
20.9
25.4
24.9
Revenue
11.2
12.9
5.4
12.0
11.3
EBITDA
5.2
7.4
14.8
27.7
15.9
Adjusted EPS
25.1
(3.5)
18.0
33.7
13.9
Invested capital
14.3
(10.5)
55.6
5.7
5.4
BVPS
Valuation Ratios
Y/E 31 Mar (x)
EV/Sales
Financial Ratios
Y/E 31 Mar
Profitability & Return Ratios (%)
YoY Growth (%)
Working Capital & Liquidity Ratios
Receivables (days)
Inventory (days)
44
42
41
37
36
118
111
110
103
101
Payables (days)
94
89
80
62
60
Current ratio (x)
1.4
1.3
1.7
1.8
2.0
Quick ratio (x)
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.4
Gross asset turnover
2.5
2.6
2.7
3.1
3.3
Total asset turnover
1.7
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.0
Net interest coverage ratio
4.7
8.5
11.4
22.0
32.1
Adjusted debt/equity
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
(0.2)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
69.7
75.1
71.2
70.7
68.3
114.1
94.8
100.7
103.0
103.7
Turnover & Leverage Ratios (x)
DuPont Analysis
Y/E 31 Mar (%)
Tax burden (Net income/PBT)
Interest burden (PBT/EBIT)
EBIT margin (EBIT/Revenue)
8.0
7.7
8.5
10.0
10.5
Asset turnover (Revenue/Avg TA)
167.9
167.1
172.5
197.3
198.5
Leverage (Avg TA/Avg equities)
360.1
315.2
274.7
220.9
196.9
38.6
28.7
29.0
31.8
29.2
Adjusted ROAE
28 January 2015
Page 5 of 7
HOLD
Havells India
TP: INR 260.00
 3.1%
HAVL IN
Results Review
INDIA
INDUSTRIALS
Income Statement
Y/E 31 Mar (INR mln)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Total revenue
72,479
81,858
86,240
96,586
107,491
EBITDA
6,916
7,425
8,525
10,883
12,619
EBIT
5,819
6,270
7,345
9,672
11,329
(1,232)
(741)
(646)
(440)
(353)
279
413
700
734
770
Exceptional items
1,772
0
0
0
0
EBT
4,866
5,941
7,399
9,966
11,746
Income taxes
Net interest income/(expenses)
Other income/(expenses)
(824)
(1,478)
(2,130)
(2,920)
(3,723)
Extraordinary items
0
0
0
0
0
Min. int./Inc. from associates
0
0
0
0
0
5,814
4,463
5,269
7,046
8,024
Reported net profit
Adjustments
(1,188)
0
0
0
0
4,627
4,463
5,269
7,046
8,024
Y/E 31 Mar (INR mln)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Accounts payables
16,054
20,227
14,014
15,007
16,021
0
0
0
0
0
Provisions
4,793
7,326
3,602
3,619
3,636
Debt funds
Adjusted net profit
Balance Sheet
Other current liabilities
8,342
8,240
5,365
4,201
3,050
Other liabilities
969
920
3,887
3,887
3,887
Equity capital
624
624
624
624
624
Reserves & surplus
13,797
16,036
19,113
23,967
29,799
Shareholders' fund
14,420
16,660
19,737
24,591
30,423
Total liabilities and equities
44,578
53,374
46,605
51,305
57,018
Cash and cash eq.
4,736
8,819
2,539
4,712
7,882
Accounts receivables
8,623
10,005
9,579
10,155
10,758
13,184
14,934
14,875
16,417
17,999
2,178
2,311
2,385
2,503
2,626
0
0
0
0
0
11,306
11,623
12,201
12,491
12,726
Inventories
Other current assets
Investments
Net fixed assets
CWIP
Intangible assets
Deferred tax assets, net
249
444
513
513
513
3,694
4,380
3,657
3,657
3,657
0
0
0
0
0
Other assets
610
857
857
857
857
Total assets
44,578
53,374
46,605
51,305
57,018
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E 31 Mar (INR mln)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Net income + Depreciation
6,911
5,619
6,449
8,258
9,314
Interest expenses
1,232
741
646
440
353
0
0
0
0
0
Changes in working capital
(1,254)
907
(5,801)
(1,244)
(1,293)
Other operating cash flows
(1,188)
0
0
0
0
5,702
7,266
1,294
7,454
8,374
Non-cash adjustments
Cash flow from operations
Capital expenditures
(1,750)
(1,764)
(1,940)
(1,430)
(1,450)
Change in investments
0
0
0
0
0
Other investing cash flows
0
0
0
0
0
Cash flow from investing
(1,750)
(1,764)
1,103
(1,430)
(1,450)
Equities issued
Debt raised/repaid
Interest expenses
Dividends paid
0
0
0
0
0
(343)
(102)
(2,874)
(1,164)
(1,151)
0
0
0
0
0
(1,095)
(2,190)
(2,192)
(2,192)
(2,192)
Other financing cash flows
0
873
(568)
(495)
(411)
Cash flow from financing
(1,438)
(1,419)
(5,634)
(3,851)
(3,754)
Changes in cash and cash eq
2,514
4,083
(6,280)
2,173
3,170
Closing cash and cash eq
4,736
8,819
2,539
4,712
7,882
28 January 2015
Page 6 of 7
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Buy
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Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months
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