Results Review INDIA INDUSTRIALS 28 January 2015 HOLD Havells India TP: INR 260.00 3.1% HAVL IN Revenue growth disappoints; reiterate HOLD HAVL’s Q3FY15 results (consol. PAT: Rs 350mn) came in below estimates on weaker sales growth in the standalone business (+5% YoY) and one-time expenses in Sylvania (€ 9mn). Revenue growth in the cable segment was hit REPORT AUTHORS by weak industrial activity and lower commodity prices. While the company’s profitability profile remains impressive, we believe its Abhishek Raj sustainability at current levels is low given the relatively low entry barriers to its product profile. Maintain HOLD with a Mar’16 TP of Rs 260. Revenue growth decelerates across segments: Revenue growth for the cable business plunged to 4% YoY (vs. 26% in H1) due to weakness in industrial activity and a drop in commodity prices. Revenue/volume growth in domestic cable stood at 6%/9% for the quarter, while lighting segment revenues remained flat YoY on lower growth in the non-LED business. EBITDA margins improve on higher contribution margin, lower ad spends: Standalone EBITDA margins were up 50bps YoY to 14.3% on higher contribution margin and lower ad spends (-30bps YoY to 2.6% of sales). Operating margins for the cable segment expanded on higher growth in domestic cables, while higher lighting segment margins were driven by better cost management and in house manufacturing. Profitability in Sylvania hit by one-offs: While Sylvania’s revenue growth in Europe/US & Latin America came in at 3%/12%, profitability was affected by pension liabilities of € 6.1mn and a charge of € 2.9mn due to sales return/rebates in Thailand (excluding these items, EBITDA margins for Sylvania were largely flat YoY at 7.7%). Reiterate HOLD: Our Mar’16 TP of Rs 260 values the standalone business at Rs 240 (22x target multiple) and Sylvania at Rs 20 (10x). +91 22 6766 3485 [email protected] Misal Singh +91 22 6766 3466 [email protected] PRICE CLOSE (28 Jan 15) INR 268.45 MARKET CAP INR 167.6 bln USD 2.7 bln SHARES O/S 624.5 mln FREE FLOAT 38.0% 3M AVG DAILY VOLUME/VALUE 3.1 mln / USD 14.2 mln 52 WK HIGH 52 WK LOW INR 346.90 INR 144.00 Financial Highlights Y/E 31 Mar FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E Revenue (INR mln) 72,479 81,858 86,240 96,586 107,491 (INR) 340 EBITDA (INR mln) 6,916 7,425 8,525 10,883 12,619 Adjusted net profit (INR mln) 4,627 4,463 5,269 7,046 8,024 240 7.4 7.2 8.4 11.3 12.9 190 25.1 (3.5) 18.0 33.7 13.9 140 Adjusted EPS (INR) Adjusted EPS growth (%) DPS (INR) 1.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 ROIC (%) 28.6 26.2 24.1 25.1 26.9 Adjusted ROAE (%) 38.6 28.7 29.0 31.8 29.2 Adjusted P/E (x) 36.2 37.5 31.8 23.8 20.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 25.2 23.1 19.6 15.7 13.2 P/BV (x) 11.6 10.1 8.5 6.8 5.5 290 Stock Price Index Price 29,400 24,400 19,400 90 40 14,400 Source: Company, Bloomberg, RCML Research This report has been prepared by Religare Capital Markets Limited or one of its affiliates. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure and Disclaimer section at the end of this report. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered with FINRA regulation and may not be subject to FINRA/NYSE restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. HOLD Havells India TP: INR 260.00 3.1% HAVL IN Results Review INDIA INDUSTRIALS Other highlights Higher depreciation, taxes hit profits: HAVL’s Q3FY15 standalone PAT was pulled down by higher depreciation (+42% YoY to Rs 2.3bn in view of the new Companies Act, 2013). Marginal tax rate for the quarter increased to 27% (vs. 22% YoY) on reduction/expiry of tax exemptions for some manufacturing facilities. Strong growth in LED portfolio: Within the lighting segment (revenues flat YoY), revenue growth in LED was up 63% YoY. While revenue growth in industrial cables improved merely 1% YoY on weak demand, growth in domestic cables was up 6% YoY. 9MFY15 ad spends up 80bps YoY to 3.3% of sales: Ad spends for the quarter were down 30bps YoY to 2.6% of sales, while for 9MFY15 increased 80bps YoY to 3.3% of sales. Net working capital expands on lower creditor days: Net working capital expanded by 16 days YoY to 24 days at Q3FY15-end on lower creditor days (-15 days YoY to 42 days), while inventory/debtor days remained largely flat YoY. Capital employed continues to expand in cable segment: While cable business sales were up only 4% YoY, capital employed for the segment expanded by 24% YoY (vs. 29%/40% expansion in Q1/Q2). In contrast, capital employed for the switchgear segment continued to decline (-9% in Q3 vs. 12% in Q2). Overall capital employed was up 12% YoY. Depreciation increases 42% YoY in view of the new Companies Act, 2013 Fig 1 - Actual versus estimates, Standalone Rs mn Actual Estimated Variance Net Sales 12,474 13,169 (5.3%) EBTIDA EBTIDA margin Adj. PAT 1,781 1,735 2.7% 14.3% 13.2% 110 bps 1,162 1,101 5.6% Source: Company, RCML Research 28 January 2015 Page 2 of 7 HOLD Havells India TP: INR 260.00 3.1% HAVL IN Results Review INDIA INDUSTRIALS Fig 2 - Quarterly performance, Standalone Standalone (Rs mn) Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY Q2FY15 QoQ 12,474 11,844 5.3 13,651 (8.6) 7,523 7,353 2.3 8,233 (8.6) 808 527 53.3 783 3.2 Other expenditure 2,363 2,332 1.3 2,832 (16.6) EBTIDA 1,781 1,633 9.1 1,804 (1.3) 230 161 42.3 225 2.1 1,552 1,471 5.4 1,579 (1.7) Total Revenue Direct costs Employees Cost Depreciation EBIT Interest 72 85 (16.0) 59 21.0 Other income 89 107 (17.0) 115 (22.7) Exceptional items gains/(loss) 22 66 (66.9) 30 (25.7) 1,591 1,559 2.0 1,664 (4.4) 428 345 24.3 468 (8.4) 1,162 1,215 (4.3) 1,196 (2.8) 15 44 (66.9) 20 (25.7) 1,147 1,170 (2.0) 1,176 (2.5) 27% 22% 484 bps 28% (118 bps) 60.3 62.1 (177 bps) 60.3 (1 bps) 6.5 4.4 203 bps 5.7 74 bps Other expenses 18.9 19.7 (75 bps) 20.7 (180 bps) EBTIDA margin 14.3 13.8 49 bps 13.2 106 bps EBIT margin 12.4 12.4 1 bps 11.6 87 bps Other income 0.7 0.9 (19 bps) 0.8 (13 bps) PAT margin 9.3 10.3 (94 bps) 8.8 55 bps PBT Total Provision for Taxation : PAT Extraordinary items PAT after extraordinary items Tax rate, % As a % of sales RM cost Employee Source: Company, RCML Research 28 January 2015 Page 3 of 7 HOLD Havells India TP: INR 260.00 3.1% HAVL IN Results Review INDIA INDUSTRIALS Fig 3 - Segmental performance, Standalone Rs mn Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Switchgear 2,760 3,135 3,093 3,204 3,073 3,387 3,275 Cable 4,049 4,874 4,751 5,591 5,348 5,914 4,951 Lighting & Fixtures 1,482 1,798 1,935 1,993 1,654 1,936 1,940 Electrical Consumer Durables 2,223 1,933 2,066 2,313 2,693 2,414 2,308 10,513 11,740 11,844 13,100 12,769 13,651 12,474 Switchgear 14% 23% 15% 3% 11% 8% 6% Cable (6%) 25% 16% 21% 32% 21% 4% Lighting & Fixtures (1%) 15% 9% 9% 12% 8% 0% 6% 19% 2% 8% 21% 25% 12% Switchgear 996 1,146 1,096 794 1,120 1,239 1,125 Cable & Wire 405 499 486 720 588 709 585 Lighting & Fixtures 372 405 450 559 430 521 535 Electrical Consumer Durables 597 529 541 638 683 600 564 Switchgear 36.1% 36.6% 35.4% 24.8% 36.5% 36.6% 34.3% Cable & Wire 10.0% 10.2% 10.2% 12.9% 11.0% 12.0% 11.8% Lighting & Fixtures 25.1% 22.5% 23.3% 28.1% 26.0% 26.9% 27.6% Electrical Consumer Durables 26.9% 27.4% 26.2% 27.6% 25.4% 24.9% 24.4% Switchgear 3,553 3,549 3,402 3,027 3,054 3,108 3,093 Cable & Wire 3,310 3,177 3,093 3,296 4,265 4,458 3,840 Lighting & Fixtures 2,683 2,694 2,467 2,526 2,592 2,767 2,462 Electrical Consumer Durables 1,454 1,563 1,785 1,648 1,581 2,063 2,533 8,680 9,953 11,404 10,801 10,858 11,237 12,867 19,680 20,937 22,151 21,299 22,350 23,632 24,794 Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY Q2FY15 QoQ 110.8 111.6 (0.7) 112.5 (1.5) Segment Revenue Income from Operations Growth YoY % Electrical Consumer Durables EBIT EBIT Margins (%) Capital Employed Segment Assets - Segment Liabilities Others Total Source: Company, RCML Research Fig 4 - Sylvania performance (Euro mn) Net Revenue Europe 67.7 66 2.6 65.1 4.0 USA & Latin America 40.2 37.6 6.9 41 (2.0) EBITDA, excluding the impact of pension liability 5.6 8.7 (35.6) 5.5 1.8 Europe 5.9 6.7 (11.9) 2.6 126.9 USA & Latin America 2.6 1.8 44.4 2.7 (3.7) Overall EBITDA margin % 5.1% 7.8% (274 bps) 4.9% 17 bps Europe 8.7% 10.2% (144 bps) 4.0% 472 bps USA & Latin America 6.5% 4.8% 168 bps 6.6% (12 bps) Source: Company, RCML Research 28 January 2015 Page 4 of 7 HOLD Havells India TP: INR 260.00 3.1% HAVL IN Results Review INDIA INDUSTRIALS Per Share Data Y/E 31 Mar (INR) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E Reported EPS 9.3 7.2 8.4 11.3 12.9 Adjusted EPS 7.4 7.2 8.4 11.3 12.9 DPS 1.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 23.1 26.7 31.6 39.4 48.8 FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 EV/EBITDA 25.2 23.1 19.6 15.7 13.2 Adjusted P/E 36.2 37.5 31.8 23.8 20.9 P/BV 11.6 10.1 8.5 6.8 5.5 FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E EBITDA margin 9.5 9.1 9.9 11.3 11.7 EBIT margin 8.0 7.7 8.5 10.0 10.5 Adjusted profit margin 6.4 5.5 6.1 7.3 7.5 Adjusted ROAE 38.6 28.7 29.0 31.8 29.2 ROCE 24.9 19.8 20.9 25.4 24.9 Revenue 11.2 12.9 5.4 12.0 11.3 EBITDA 5.2 7.4 14.8 27.7 15.9 Adjusted EPS 25.1 (3.5) 18.0 33.7 13.9 Invested capital 14.3 (10.5) 55.6 5.7 5.4 BVPS Valuation Ratios Y/E 31 Mar (x) EV/Sales Financial Ratios Y/E 31 Mar Profitability & Return Ratios (%) YoY Growth (%) Working Capital & Liquidity Ratios Receivables (days) Inventory (days) 44 42 41 37 36 118 111 110 103 101 Payables (days) 94 89 80 62 60 Current ratio (x) 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 Quick ratio (x) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 Gross asset turnover 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.3 Total asset turnover 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 Net interest coverage ratio 4.7 8.5 11.4 22.0 32.1 Adjusted debt/equity 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 (0.2) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E 69.7 75.1 71.2 70.7 68.3 114.1 94.8 100.7 103.0 103.7 Turnover & Leverage Ratios (x) DuPont Analysis Y/E 31 Mar (%) Tax burden (Net income/PBT) Interest burden (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Revenue) 8.0 7.7 8.5 10.0 10.5 Asset turnover (Revenue/Avg TA) 167.9 167.1 172.5 197.3 198.5 Leverage (Avg TA/Avg equities) 360.1 315.2 274.7 220.9 196.9 38.6 28.7 29.0 31.8 29.2 Adjusted ROAE 28 January 2015 Page 5 of 7 HOLD Havells India TP: INR 260.00 3.1% HAVL IN Results Review INDIA INDUSTRIALS Income Statement Y/E 31 Mar (INR mln) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E Total revenue 72,479 81,858 86,240 96,586 107,491 EBITDA 6,916 7,425 8,525 10,883 12,619 EBIT 5,819 6,270 7,345 9,672 11,329 (1,232) (741) (646) (440) (353) 279 413 700 734 770 Exceptional items 1,772 0 0 0 0 EBT 4,866 5,941 7,399 9,966 11,746 Income taxes Net interest income/(expenses) Other income/(expenses) (824) (1,478) (2,130) (2,920) (3,723) Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 0 Min. int./Inc. from associates 0 0 0 0 0 5,814 4,463 5,269 7,046 8,024 Reported net profit Adjustments (1,188) 0 0 0 0 4,627 4,463 5,269 7,046 8,024 Y/E 31 Mar (INR mln) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E Accounts payables 16,054 20,227 14,014 15,007 16,021 0 0 0 0 0 Provisions 4,793 7,326 3,602 3,619 3,636 Debt funds Adjusted net profit Balance Sheet Other current liabilities 8,342 8,240 5,365 4,201 3,050 Other liabilities 969 920 3,887 3,887 3,887 Equity capital 624 624 624 624 624 Reserves & surplus 13,797 16,036 19,113 23,967 29,799 Shareholders' fund 14,420 16,660 19,737 24,591 30,423 Total liabilities and equities 44,578 53,374 46,605 51,305 57,018 Cash and cash eq. 4,736 8,819 2,539 4,712 7,882 Accounts receivables 8,623 10,005 9,579 10,155 10,758 13,184 14,934 14,875 16,417 17,999 2,178 2,311 2,385 2,503 2,626 0 0 0 0 0 11,306 11,623 12,201 12,491 12,726 Inventories Other current assets Investments Net fixed assets CWIP Intangible assets Deferred tax assets, net 249 444 513 513 513 3,694 4,380 3,657 3,657 3,657 0 0 0 0 0 Other assets 610 857 857 857 857 Total assets 44,578 53,374 46,605 51,305 57,018 Cash Flow Statement Y/E 31 Mar (INR mln) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E Net income + Depreciation 6,911 5,619 6,449 8,258 9,314 Interest expenses 1,232 741 646 440 353 0 0 0 0 0 Changes in working capital (1,254) 907 (5,801) (1,244) (1,293) Other operating cash flows (1,188) 0 0 0 0 5,702 7,266 1,294 7,454 8,374 Non-cash adjustments Cash flow from operations Capital expenditures (1,750) (1,764) (1,940) (1,430) (1,450) Change in investments 0 0 0 0 0 Other investing cash flows 0 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing (1,750) (1,764) 1,103 (1,430) (1,450) Equities issued Debt raised/repaid Interest expenses Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0 (343) (102) (2,874) (1,164) (1,151) 0 0 0 0 0 (1,095) (2,190) (2,192) (2,192) (2,192) Other financing cash flows 0 873 (568) (495) (411) Cash flow from financing (1,438) (1,419) (5,634) (3,851) (3,754) Changes in cash and cash eq 2,514 4,083 (6,280) 2,173 3,170 Closing cash and cash eq 4,736 8,819 2,539 4,712 7,882 28 January 2015 Page 6 of 7 RESEARCH DISCLAIMER Important Disclosures This report was prepared, approved, published and distributed by a Religare Capital Markets (“RCM”) group company located outside of the United States (a “non-US Group 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