INSIDE AGRICULTURE Wednesday, January 28, 2015 SOYBEAN - TECHNICAL OUTLOOK TOP NEWS Click on the chart for full-size image Cargill likely to stay private, commits to Ukraine: CEO Ukraine to curb food wheat exports to 1.2 mln t in Jan-June period CME group to launch euro-denominated cocoa contract Drought keeps Brazil waterway closed as soy exports start West Coast coffee roasters scramble for spot beans amid port backups U.S. approves Argentina proposal to qualify for biofuel credits France faces 1.1 bln euro bill for excess farm subsidies U.S. trade talks will not undermine sugar program –Trade Official TODAY’S MARKETS Futures (as of 0730 GMT) CBOT Wheat Active Price Change YTD Volume MAR5 518 2/8 - 6/8 -12.00% 1,510 CBOT Corn MAR5 380 4/8 - 6/8 -3.97% 2,294 CBOT Soybean MAR5 975 4/8 1 6/8 -4.46% 2,713 CBOT Soybean Oil MAR5 $31.09 -$0.08 -2.50% 7,776 CBOT Soy Meal MAR5 $337.70 $1.10 -7.68% 892 ICE Cotton MAR5 $58.54 -$0.24 -2.47% 544 ECONOMIC WATCH GMT Indicators Unit Reuters Prior 07:45 FR Consumer Confidence ind 91 90 09:00 NO Labour Force Survey pct 3.8 3.8 12:00 US Mortgage Market Index ind -- 561.9 19:00 US Fed Funds Target Rate pct -- 0.25 CLICK HERE FOR TECHNICAL CHARTS CLICK HERE FOR TENDERS GRAINS: U.S. corn fell for a third straight session to around its lowest in more than a week, pressured by slowing demand for corn -based fuel ethanol as oil prices weaken. "We are seeing a downward move in corn prices because of the ongoing impact of ethanol demand with oil prices having fallen to such a great extent," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank. SOFTS: Raw sugar futures on ICE fell more than 2 percent in heavy volume on Tuesday, on forecasts for rain in top-grower Brazil and expectations that India will approve a new export subsidy, while New York cocoa bounced up from a one-year low. "Physical values have been bleeding and destination values are even worse which shows there is plenty around," a European broker said. EDIBLE OIL: Malaysian palm oil rose for a second day on Wednesday, recouping some of its recent losses, but traders remained wary and questioned how far the recovery could go since demand remained weak. "Today is a technical retracement," said a trader at a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur, adding that a weakening in the ringgit on Wednesday had provided support. STOCKS: European stocks looked set to open high and Asian shares steadied on optimism that the Federal Reserve could take a dovish turn in its post-meeting statement later in the session. Disappointing results from bellwether companies dragged Wall Street down on Tuesday. INSIDE AGRICULTURE January 28, 2015 TOP NEWS Ukraine to curb food wheat exports to 1.2 mln t in Jan-June period Cargill likely to stay private, commits to Ukraine: CEO Cargill Inc , one of the world's largest privately held corporations and a top commodities trader, will likely remain private for at least another decade, the chief executive said on Tuesday as he assessed challenges facing the 150-year old company. David MacLennan, who has led Cargill for the past 13 months, also revealed that unrest in Ukraine had affected plans for the company's expansion in the Black Sea, a key grain-producing region. In the United States, he said new financial reform rules have made it harder for Cargill to manage risk. MacLennan's comments at a commodities conference in Miami gave rare insight into Minneapolis-based Cargill, a leading U.S. grain exporter, biofuels producer, food processor and energy trader. The Ukrainian government and traders have agreed that no more than 1.2 million tonnes of Ukrainian milling wheat will be exported between Jan. 1 and June 30, Agriculture Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko said on Tuesday. According to the memorandum, signed by the minister and traders' unions, sales of milling wheat will not exceed 900,000 tonnes in the first quarter in 2015 and 300,000 in the following three months. "The main task is to ensure a predictable and transparent grain market," Pavlenko said at a joint news conference with traders. "The agreed volumes (of exports) allow us to fulfil all our foreign obligations," said Volodymyr Klymenko, head of Ukrainian grain traders' union UZA. CME group to launch euro-denominated cocoa contract Drought keeps Brazil waterway closed as soy exports start CME Europe said on Tuesday it planned to launch a eurodenominated cocoa futures contract on March 30, just days before rival ICE Futures Europe introduces a similar contract. The launch of a cocoa futures contract for physical delivery marks CME Group's entry into deliverable soft commodities. ICE Futures Europe announced this month it would launch a euro-denominated contract in April. CME Europe will also launch a cash-settled dollar-denominated cocoa futures contract on March 30 as it seeks to break ICE's current dominance of cocoa futures trading. A key waterway in Brazil used to transport grains, pulp and other bulk goods will not reopen, as planned, for the start of soy exporting season, the Sao Paulo state government said on Tuesday. The Tiete-Parana waterway has been closed since May, and rains in January, usually the rainiest month in southeastern Brazil, have not raised the draft enough for barges to pass. The closure shows the growing economic impact of the climate crisis in a region responsible for 60 percent of Brazil's gross domestic product, and economists are considering the impact of potential energy rationing as water levels drop in reservoirs that feed hydro-electric dams. The government has no estimated date for reopening the waterway, Sao Paulo state's transportation department said in an emailed response to questions. The government said in September the waterway would be reopened in January. West Coast coffee roasters scramble for spot beans amid port backups A months-long dispute between dockworkers an management at West Coast ports has stranded hundreds of containers of coffee, boosting physical cash prices for warehouse supplies and forcing roasters to buy on the spot market. Shippers say cargo traffic at the Long Beach and Los Angeles docks has slowed to near gridlock this month amid contract talks between the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union. To fill gaps, West Coast coffee roasters have raided their own inventories or bought on the spot market, adding several cents per lb to regional differentials. Last week, beans from top-grower Brazil sold on the physical market for 5 to 7 cents under futures. "Over the last month, we've considered ourselves lucky if our truckers can pull one container of green coffee out of the port" per day, said Frank Gavina, green coffee buyer at F. Gavina and Sons, a Vernon, California-based roaster. U.S. approves Argentina proposal to qualify for biofuel credits U.S. regulators have given the go-ahead for Argentina's biofuel makers to qualify for U.S. biofuel credits, potentially making it more attractive for South American exporters to sell into the U.S. market and potentially pressuring local prices. In a statement on Tuesday, the Environmental Protection Agency said it has approved a request from Argentina's Biofuels Chamber (Carbio) for an "Alternative Renewable Biomass Tracking Requirement," which sets out environmental standards needed for foreign producers to join the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standards program. Requirements include using third-party auditors to monitor manufacturing processes to show that soy used in their biofuel is grown on fields that were not deforested. The green light will effectively make it easier for the South American grains powerhouse to sell its big biofuel output into the United States, potentially jump-starting the local sector which has suffered from a drop in demand from its No. 1 customer, the European Union, due to a long-running trade spat. 2 INSIDE AGRICULTURE January 28, 2015 TOP NEWS (Continued) U.S. trade talks will not undermine sugar program –Trade Official France faces 1.1 bln euro bill for excess farm subsidies The European Commission has asked France to repay 1.1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) for farm aid it should not have claimed, by far the biggest bill levied against a country under the current EU review of past subsidy payments. France, the largest recipient of subsidies under the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), had initially faced a claim of around 3.5 billion euros from the EU's executive before negotiating down the sum, the country's agriculture minister said on Tuesday. "There was no fraud. There may have been mistakes and our role is to rectify them," Stephane Le Foll added. The Commission's claim against France, which mainly relates to inaccurate declarations of arable land between 2008 and 2012, makes up the bulk of around 1.4 billion euros that the EU's executive wants to recoup from member states, according to figures published in the official EU journal on Friday. U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said on Tuesday the administration will ensure that any extra sugar imports under a Pacific trade pact do not hurt U.S. sugar producers. "We have committed that whatever additional access there might be to the U.S. sugar market won't undermine the U.S. sugar program," he told a House of Representatives committee hearing in response to a question about the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Froman also said USTR was monitoring a Turkish dumping investigation that could result in penalties on U.S. cotton imports and was prepared to take action if Turkey imposed inappropriate trade remedies TENDER WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association has issued atender to purchase 86,280 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said on Wednesday. Tender deadline is Feb. 5, they said. 3 INSIDE AGRICULTURE January 28, 2015 1-Month TECHNICAL CHARTS with 14 Days Moving Average CBOT Corn CBOT Wheat ICE Cocoa ICE Coffee CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soymeal (Inside Agriculture is compiled by Vishaka George in Bangalore) For more information: Learn more about our products and services for commodities professionals, click here Contact your local Thomson Reuters office, click here For questions and comments on Inside Agriculture, click here Your subscription: To find out more and register for our free commodities newsletters click here © 2015 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. This content is the intellectual property of Thomson Reuters and its affiliates. Any copying, distribution or redistribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. 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