1. Art and Diseño

INSIDE AGRICULTURE
Monday, February 2, 2015
CBOT WHEAT — TECH OUTLOOK
TOP NEWS
Click on the chart for full-size image
 U.S. soyoil open interest suggests further falls ahead
 Wheat for Egypt stuck at Russian ports ahead of export tax
launch - sources
 Argentina to restrict wheat export permits if low prices paid
 China eyes food safety, modern farms in 2015 rural policy
 INTERVIEW-Dubai's Al Khaleej says has enough raw sugar for
this year
 INTERVIEW-Mexico's state sugar mills see 2014/15 exports of
500,000 tonnes
 Illinois corn prices face more pain from West Coast port dispute
 Aggressive herd expansion reverses shrinking U.S. cattle supply
Futures
(as of 0730 GMT)
Active
Price
Change
YTD
Volume
CBOT Wheat
MAR5
502
- 6/8
-14.75%
2,651
CBOT Corn
MAR5
368 4/8
-1 4/8
-6.80%
4,229
CBOT Soybean
MAR5
958 6/8
-2 2/8
-5.71%
4,573
CBOT Soybean Oil MAR5
$29.99
-$0.01
-6.16%
5,760
CBOT Soy Meal
MAR5
$329.30
-$0.60
-9.52%
1,645
ICE Cotton
MAR5
$59.04
-$0.32
-1.51%
859
ECONOMIC WATCH
GMT
Indicators
Unit Reuters
Prior
08:15 ES Manufacturing PMI
ind
54
53.8
08:45
ind
48.8
48.4
08:50 FR Markit Mfg PMI
ind
49.5
49.5
08:55 DE Markit/BME Mfg PMI
ind
51
51
09:00 EZ Markit Mfg Final PMI
ind
51
51
09:30 GB Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI
ind
52.6
52.5
13:30 US Consumption, Adjusted MM
pct
-0.2
0.6
13:30 US Personal Income MM
pct
0.2
0.4
15:00 US Construction Spending MM
pct
0.7
-0.3
15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI
ind
54.5
55.1
IT
Markit/ADACI Mfg PMI
CLICK HERE FOR TECHNICAL CHARTS
TODAY’S MARKETS
GRAINS: U.S. corn fell for a sixth consecutive session and wheat
eased to trade near a four-month low, with grain markets starting
February on a bearish note after a dismal performance last month
under pressure from ample global supplies. "We saw a poor performance in January as low oil prices reduced demand for ethanol,"
said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank.
"We are seeing more losses as the USDA estimates suggest that
supply of major grains is likely to remain strong."
SOFTS: ICE raw sugar fell to a 2-1/2 week low on Friday as expectations mounted that excess inventories will not erode as quickly as
had been thought, while arabica coffee notched a daily gain but still
had a fifth-straight monthly loss. "Talk of Indian exports, high crop
forecasts for Brazil, calls for a higher surplus are all contributing to
pressure," said James Liddiard of consultancy Agrilion in New
York.
EDIBLE OIL: Malaysian palm oil futures bounced back from their
lowest since mid-December on Friday as traders closed short positions ahead of the long weekend, but were down for the third week
in a row on weakness in demand for the edible oil. "It's up purely on
short-covering for the long holiday," said a trader with a foreign
commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. "If you are short in the
market, if you’ve got a good profit, definitely you are going to buy
back. You are not going to wait for next week until Wednesday,"
the trader added.
CLICK HERE FOR TENDERS
STOCKS: European markets looked set to open lower tracking
most of Asian stocks after soft data on China's factory sector activity raised concerns over the outlook for the world's second biggest
economy. Wall Street closed negative on Friday.
INSIDE AGRICULTURE
February 2, 2015
TOP NEWS
U.S. soyoil open interest suggests further falls ahead
Wheat for Egypt stuck at Russian ports ahead of export tax
launch - sources
U.S. soyoil futures are likely to test recent six-year lows next
week after investors extended bearish bets in a surge of trading
after a policy decision that could boost Argentina's exports to
the United States.
Open interest in soyoil on Thursday expanded to 401,410 contracts, the most since mid-November, as prices tumbled to
29.32 cents per lb, the lowest levels since February 2009, CME
Group data showed on Friday.
Trading volume on Wednesday of 178,984 soyoil contracts was
the most in nearly a year, the CME Group said.
Open interest can be an indicator that investors are making
short bets, or buying with the expectation prices will fall.
Longhenry, who is not short soyoil after squaring his books before Friday, the final trading day in January, said prices could
test 28 cents per lb - a level last seen in December 2008.
Several vessels loading tens of thousands of tonnes of wheat
for the state buyer of Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer,
are stuck in Russia's Black Sea ports ahead of the launch of an
export tax in Moscow, trade sources said.
After the rouble's slump against the dollar spurred grain exports,
driving up domestic prices, the Russian government was forced
to curb exports with informal limits and announced an export tax
that will come into force on Feb. 1.
Due to the informal curbs, these supplies for Egypt's state grain
buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC),
have already missed deadlines of previously agreed contracts,
but traders can not change the origin of supply.
The tax, or a duty on wheat exports, will amount to 15 percent
of the customs price plus 7.5 euros and will be no less.
China eyes food safety, modern farms in 2015 rural policy
Argentina to restrict wheat export permits if low prices paid
Wheat exporters who buy the grain from Argentina's farmers will
not be issued permits if they pay the growers significantly less
than the international price for the crop, the government said on
Friday.
The announcement, by Economy Minister Axel Kicillof, followed
complaints by local producers that government restrictions on
wheat exports artificially suppressed local prices. The government said the quotas are to make sure local consumer prices
are fair.
"We will only give export permits when the price that these exporters pay the producer is near to the international price," Kicillof told journalists after a meeting with a leading farmers' association.
Relations between farmers and two-term President Cristina Fernandez have been severely strained since massive farm protests six years ago over her tax policies.
Leading grains exporters operating in Argentina include Bunge
Ltd, Cargill Inc and Louis Dreyfus Commodities BV.
"We understand that exporters are paying between 900-1,000
pesos per tonne of wheat while the selling price abroad is between 1,250-1,500 pesos per tonne," Kicillof said.
China has listed food safety and modernising farms as among
key priorities this year, its 2015 rural policy outline showed, as it
tackles falling agricultural productivity that has raised concerns
about its future food supply.
The "number one document", issued every January and released by state news agency Xinhua on Sunday, showed China
will also protect farmland and lend more to farmers to narrow a
wealth gap between rural and urban areas.
Attempts to clean up land that has been damaged by heavy
metal mining and processing will be widened this year, and
"permanent farmland" that is off-limit to industrial and urban
development will be created, the document said.
Modern farms will be set up, and regulation of the quality of food
and other farm products will be enhanced, it said.
On land reforms, aimed at allowing farmers to trade their land to
alleviate poverty and create bigger and more efficient farms, the
document said the focus is on expanding an experiment that
registers land usage rights to cover entire provinces.
INTERVIEW-Dubai's Al Khaleej says has enough raw sugar
for this year
Nine state-run Mexican sugar mills that produce 20 percent of
the country's sugar expect to export around 500,000 tonnes in
the current 2014/15 season, a similar level to last cycle, the
director of the fund that administers the mills said on Friday.
Carlos Rello, the director of the FEESA fund, also said 60,000
tonnes had been exported in January through sugar trader Sucres & Denrees (Sucden).
"These have just gone out to the global market," Rello said in an
interview, adding that 31,500 tonnes went to Morocco and
28,500 tonnes to a refinery in Canada.
Rello said FEESA expects to produce 1.4 million tonnes in the
current cycle, a figure similar to the previous cycle. Mexico expects to produce 6.15 million tonnes in the current harvest, according to government data.
This cycle, however, Mexico's sugar producers, which have
traditionally exported their sugar to the United States, will have
to find new markets after their access to the U.S. market has
been limited due to a trade spat.
INTERVIEW-Mexico's state sugar mills see 2014/15 exports
of 500,000 tonnes
Dubai's Al Khaleej Sugar Refinery has 1.5 million tonnes of raw
sugar, either stockpiled at the refinery or on its way to the refinery, enough to meet its demand until the end of 2015, Jamal Al
Ghurair, managing director of the refinery, said on Sunday.
"Currently we don't need to import anything. It depends on the
price as we have enough stocks. It can take us until the end of
this year," Ghurair told Reuters in an interview at the Kingsman
Platts Dubai Sugar Conference.
The origin of the sugar is mostly Brazilian but Ghurair said he
would look to buy Indian and Pakistani sugar once they become
available on the market if the price is right.
Ghurair also said he expected the whites-over-raws premium, a
measure of sugar refining profitability, to remain subdued for
2015 at a range of $50 to $60 a tonne.
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INSIDE AGRICULTURE
February 2, 2015
TOP NEWS (Continued)
Illinois corn prices face more pain from West Coast port
dispute
Aggressive herd expansion reverses shrinking U.S. cattle
supply
Cargo backups due to a labor dispute at West Coast container
ports are pushing down corn prices in Illinois and could cause
importers to renege on deals, adding to record domestic stockpiles of the grain.
With container shipment delays of two months or more at ports
in California, grains handlers that transport supplies to the ports
are slowing operations in the fastest-growing segment of agriculture exports.
Corn buyers south of Chicago, where railroads converge in the
country's busiest rail hub, are slashing their bids.
The DeLong Company, one of the biggest shippers of
"containerized" grain to destinations in Asia, is canceling a loading shift that was scheduled for Saturday in Minooka, Illinois.
The company also reduced what it was willing to pay for corn by
7 cents, to $3.52 per bushel.
A labor deal at 29 ports on the West Coast moved closer this
week but it will take months to shift the backlog at ports in Los
Angeles and Long Beach.
Affordable feed and record-high spikes in cattle prices in 2014
encouraged ranchers to increase their herds at a faster pace
than previously expected during the past year, analysts said in
response to a government yearly cattle report on Friday.
Expansion efforts by producers helped turnaround the sevenyear decline in the U.S. population from a 63-year low after severe drought hurt crops and forced ranchers to reduce the size
of their herds.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's annual cattle inventory
report showed the U.S. cattle herd as of Jan. 1 at 101.0 percent
of a year earlier, or up 1 percent at 89.8 million head.
Analysts, on average, expected a 0.1 percent decline from 88.5
million last year.
Friday's USDA data showed the Jan. 1 cattle population was
larger than in 2013 and 2014, but still the third smallest since
1952, said University of Missouri livestock economist Ron Plain.
TENDER
WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government purchased
70,000 tonnes of milling wheat of optional origin in a tender issued in December, European traders said on Friday.
WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia's state grains agency purchased
some 117,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 50,000 tonnes of
feed barley from optional origins in a tender for the same volume on Friday, European traders said.
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INSIDE AGRICULTURE
February 2, 2015
1-Month TECHNICAL CHARTS with 14 Days Moving Average
CBOT Corn
CBOT Wheat
ICE Cocoa
ICE Coffee
CBOT Soybeans
CBOT Soymeal
(Inside Agriculture is compiled by Renuka Vijay Kumar in Bangalore)
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