1. Healthcare

2750 14th Avenue, Suite 306 Markham
Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B6
MTFX
Section
Analytics
6
Email: [email protected]
Toll Free: 1.800.832.5104
Fax: 1.866.206.1740
FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015 - 2016)
FOREX MAJORS (USD)
2015
2016
SPOT
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
Canadian Dollar
USD/CAD
1.27
1.30
1.30
1.28
1.28
1.24
1.24
1.22
1.22
Euro
EUR/USD
1.13
1.13
1.08
1.08
1.11
1.14
1.17
1.21
1.23
British Pound
GBP/USD
1.50
1.51
1.48
1.48
1.53
1.54
1.56
1.58
1.60
Japanese Yen
USD/JPY
118
119
122
125
122
117
116
115
114
Swiss Franc
USD/CHF
0.92
0.88
0.89
0.90
0.89
0.88
0.86
0.83
0.83
Australian Dollar
AUD/USD
0.78
0.77
0.76
0.74
0.76
0.79
0.81
0.83
0.85
New Zealand Dollar
NZD/USD
0.72
0.72
0.71
0.73
0.72
0.73
0.72
0.72
0.72
OTHER PAIRS (USD)
2015
2016
SPOT
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
Chinese Renminbi
CNY/USD
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.20
6.20
6.15
6.15
6.10
6.10
Indian Rupee
INR/USD
62.0
61.5
61.5
61.0
61.0
60.5
61.0
60.5
60.5
South African Rand
ZAR/USD
11.6
11.5
11.8
12.1
12.0
11.9
11.7
11.7
11.8
Polish Zloty
PLN/USD
3.71
3.95
4.15
4.13
4.05
4.05
4.03
4.00
3.95
Kenya Shilling
KES/USD
92
91
93
94
95
97
92
90
88
CANADIAN CROSSES
2015
2016
SPOT
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
Euro
EUR/CAD
1.44
1.41
1.42
1.39
1.41
1.41
1.43
1.46
1.53
British Pound
GBP/CAD
1.92
1.89
1.89
1.88
1.90
1.88
1.88
1.90
1.96
Japanese Yen
CAD/JPY
100
101
100
104
107
108
108
109
111
Swiss Franc
CAD/CHF
0.72
0.68
0.68
0.70
0.70
0.71
0.69
0.68
0.68
Austalian Dollar
AUD/CAD
0.99
0.97
0.98
0.96
0.97
0.99
1.00
1.01
1.05
New Zealand Dollar
NZD/CAD
0.93
0.94
0.92
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.89
0.88
0.88
Chinese Renminbi
CNY/CAD
4.91
4.81
4.81
4.84
4.84
4.96
4.96
5.00
5.00
Indian Rupee
INR/CAD
48.8
47.3
47.2
47.7
47.7
49.1
49.1
49.6
49.6
South African Rand
ZAR/CAD
9.15
8.85
9.10
9.45
9.40
9.60
9.45
9.60
9.70
Polish Zloty
PLN/CAD
2.92
3.05
3.20
3.25
3.15
3.30
3.25
3.30
3.25
Kenya Shilling
KES/CAD
72
70
72
73
74
78
74
74
72
1.800.832.5104
[email protected]
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 306 Markham
Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B6
Email: [email protected]
Toll Free: 1.800.832.5104
Fax: 1.866.206.1740
MTFX
Section
Analytics
6
FEBRUARY 2015 - CURRENCY HIGHLIGHTS
USD
The US dollar continues to remain the darling currency of 2015. The collapse
in oil prices is a win as America is still a net importer of oil. The collapse in oil
means cheaper goods and more disposable income allowing domestic growth
to accelerate. The US will continue to gain momentum in 2015 and we are
more than happy to jump on the bandwagon.
CAD
The Bank of Canada surprised the markets last month with a rate cut of
25-bp, we’re expecting another 25-bp cut which seems to have already been
priced in by the markets. A weaker Canadian growth profile compared to the
US, a more pronounced rate spread between the Fed and the BoC, and the
nosedive in oil will effectively crush the loonie in the coming months.
EUR
Draghi finally came through last month with some much needed QE. The
proposed QE plan was twice as large what the street was expecting and has
sent the Euro into a nosedive. The Euro’s slide is by no means over with the
market looking for a test of 1.07. Though some analysts are calling for a 1:1
euro-dollar, we find parity to be unlikely.
GBP
The fate of the pound will be driven by politics rather than economic fundamentals in the medium term. With elections scheduled for May 7th neither
of the two main parties seem capable of winning a majority leaving the
market worried about an unstable government. However, the growth profile
for the UK remains strong with the pound expected to rebound in Q3.
1.800.832.5104
[email protected]
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 306 Markham
Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B6
MTFX
Section
Analytics
6
Email: [email protected]
Toll Free: 1.800.832.5104
Fax: 1.866.206.1740
FEBRUARY 2015 - CURRENCY HIGHLIGHTS
February 2015
2015f
Spot
USD/CAD
MTFX
Consensus Forecast
EUR/USD
1.27
MTFX
Consensus Forecast
GBP/USD
Consensus Forecast
1.13
MTFX
1.50
2016f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
1.30
1.30
1.28
1.28
1.24
1.24
1.22
1.22
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.28
1.25
1.23
1.22
1.24
1.13
1.08
1.08
1.11
1.14
1.17
1.21
1.23
1.12
1.09
1.07
1.10
1.13
1.13
1.14
1.15
1.51
1.48
1.48
1.53
1.54
1.56
1.58
1.60
1.50
1.45
1.45
1.49
1.51
1.53
1.56
1.58
U.S. DOLLAR COMMENT:
The US dollar remains the king of 2015 and investors continue to increase holdings in the USD as a result of strong
economic fundamentals. The US economy seems to be
gaining momentum with growth continuing to accelerate.
Consumer confidence is strong and is likely to continue to
improve aided by the drop in oil and gasoline prices. Unemployment is at multi-year lows and macro-economic data
suggests that the US economy is poised to expand with a
ramp up in industrial production, rising capacity utilization
and housing starts.
The collapse of oil prices is sending chills through many
developed and emerging markets but for the US cheap oil is
a win. The collapse in oil means cheaper goods and more
disposable income allowing domestic demand and growth
to accelerate. In this environment the USD is expected to
appreciate against the majors with support from both
fundamentals and flows. Declining oil prices will likely act as
a positive catalyst for the USD in the near term.
Strong fundamental economic data has reinforced the view
that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates in Q2 2015.
Recent comments from the Fed have reinforced this bullish
view which has resulted in a significantly stronger greenback
against most of the majors. The only credible risk to the
bullish sentiment of the Fed could be a soft global growth
profile stemming from Asia and Europe.
Overall the USD remains the currency of choice in 2015 and
is well positioned for further upward momentum against its
peers.
JANUARY CURRENCY RETURNS
0%
-2%
CAD
EUR
GBP
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-16%
-18%
EVENTS TO WATCH IN COMING MONTH
ECONOMIC EVENT
DATE
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
FEB 02
USD ADP Nonfarm Payrolls
FEB 04
USD Unemployment Rate
FEB 06
USD Non Farm Payrolls
FEB 06
USD Core Retail Sales
FEB 12
2015 seems to be the year of the US dollar.
1.800.832.5104
[email protected]
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 306 Markham
Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B6
MTFX
Section
Analytics
6
Email: [email protected]
Toll Free: 1.800.832.5104
Fax: 1.866.206.1740
USD/CAD FEBRUARY 2015 HIGHLIGHTS
February 2015
2015f
USD/CAD
Spot
MTFX Forecast
Consensus Forecast
1.27
2016f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
1.30
1.30
1.28
1.28
1.24
1.24
1.22
1.22
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.28
1.25
1.23
1.22
1.24
USD/CAD CURRENCY TREND
HIGHLIGHTS:
The bank of Canada surprised the
markets last month with a 25-bp cut,
and we’re expecting another 25-bp cut
in March given the collapse in oil. The
second rate cut seems to be priced in to
the loonie given the spectacular collapse
in the month of January.
1.29
1.27
1.25
1.23
1.21
A weaker Canadian growth profile
compared to the US, a more pronounced
rate spread between the Fed and the
BoC, and the nosedive in oil and other
commodities will provide a potent mix
to effectively crush the loonie in the
coming months.
1.19
1.17
1.15
EVENTS TO WATCH IN COMING MONTH
ECONOMIC EVENT
DATE
CAD Ivey PMI
FEB 04
CAD Trade Balance
FEB 05
CAD Building Permits
FEB 06
CAD Employment Data
FEB 06
CAD Retail Sales
FEB 20
The weaker loonie should help exports
and a recovery in oil prices could
suggest a firmer loonie. However, the
need to have exports become driving
force of our economy and take the lead
from housing and debt-driven growth
seems a stretch. Expect 1.20 -1.25 loonie
in the longer term.
MARKET SENTIMENT:
Bearish
Bullish
1.800.832.5104
[email protected]
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 306 Markham
Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B6
MTFX
Section
Analytics
6
Email: [email protected]
Toll Free: 1.800.832.5104
Fax: 1.866.206.1740
EUR/USD FEBRUARY 2015 HIGHLIGHTS
February 2015
2015f
EUR/USD
Spot
MTFX Forecast
Consensus Forecast
1.13
2016f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
1.13
1.08
1.08
1.11
1.14
1.17
1.21
1.23
1.12
1.09
1.07
1.10
1.13
1.13
1.14
1.15
EUR/USD CURRENCY TREND
HIGHLIGHTS:
Draghi and the ECB finally delivered QE
to the Eurozone with the purchase of 60
billion euros per month through to
September 2016. The ECB committed to
a plan that was twice what the street
was expecting resulting in the collapse
of the Euro to multi- year lows.
1.22
1.2
1.18
1.16
The Euro lost 12% in 2014 and should
continue its slide as the ECB rolls out its
QE program. The lower exchange rate
and lower financing costs should boost
economic growth in the region and
significantly improve economic fundamentals.
1.14
1.12
1.1
EVENTS TO WATCH IN COMING MONTH
ECONOMIC EVENT
DATE
EUR German Manufacturing PMI
FEB 02
EUR Retail Sales
FEB 04
EUR German GDP
FEB 13
EUR German Economic Sentiment
FEB 17
USD German Manufacturing PMI
FEB 20
The Euro’s slide is by no means over with
the markets eyeing the 2003 lows of
1.08. Though some analysts have talked
about a 1:1 euro-dollar, parity it seems
unlikely given that economic fundamentals and a current account surplus
should being to improve and stabilize
the currency.
MARKET SENTIMENT:
Bearish
Bullish
1.800.832.5104
[email protected]
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 306 Markham
Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B6
MTFX
Section
Analytics
6
Email: [email protected]
Toll Free: 1.800.832.5104
Fax: 1.866.206.1740
GBP/USD FEBRUARY 2015 HIGHLIGHTS
February 2015
2015f
GBP/USD
Spot
MTFX Forecast
Consensus Forecast
1.50
2016f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
Q1f
Q2f
Q3f
Q4f
1.51
1.48
1.48
1.53
1.54
1.56
1.58
1.60
1.50
1.45
1.45
1.49
1.51
1.53
1.56
1.58
GBP/USD CURRENCY TREND
HIGHLIGHTS:
While we agree with most analysts that
there is a very small chance that the BoE
will be raising rates before Q3-2015, our
call is that the markets are over-dovish
on the pound. Similar to 2014 the
pound has the potential to surprise in
the second half of 2015.
1.57
1.56
1.55
1.54
1.53
Economic fundamentals in the UK are
strong compared to its peers, however,
in the near term the pound will largely
be driven by politics with the UK
parliamentary elections scheduled for
May7th. Neither of the two main parties
seem capable of winning a majority
leaving the market worried about an
unstable government.
1.52
1.51
1.5
1.49
EVENTS TO WATCH IN COMING MONTH
ECONOMIC EVENT
DATE
GBP Manufacturing/Services PMI
FEB 2/4
GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision
FEB 05
GBP Consumer Price Inflation
FEB 17
GBP Employment Data
FEB 18
GBP Retail Sales
FEB 20
We expect politics to weigh on the GBP
in the first half of the year, however,
given the strong economic fundamentals we expect the UK outperform most
of its peers in Q3/Q4 of 2015 giving a
significant boost to the pound.
MARKET SENTIMENT:
Bearish
Bullish
1.800.832.5104
[email protected]
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 306 Markham
Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B6
Email: [email protected]
Toll Free: 1.800.832.5104
Fax: 1.866.206.1740
MTFX
Section
Analytics
6
FOREIGN EXCHANGE DISCLAIMER
This publication has been prepared by MTFX Inc. for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinionscontained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or
implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which MTFX Inc., its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither MTFX Inc. nor its affiliates accept
any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information.
MTFX Analytics
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 306
Markham, Ontario Canada L3T 6X1
Toll Free: 1.800.832.5104
Fax: 1.866.832.5104
Email: [email protected]
This report has been prepared by MTFX Inc. as a resource for its clients. The opinions,
projections and estimates contained herein are our own and subject to change
without notice.
1.800.832.5104
[email protected]