Opening Bell February 2, 2015 Results: Bharat Forge; HSBC India Manu. PMI Index Movement (past one month) 25000 Key Developments 13-Jan BSE (RHS) • The Indian government has revised the GDP base year to 2011-12 from 2004-05 and also altered the methodology to gross value add at basic prices vs. old real GDP. This led to FY14 GDP being revised to 6.9% vs. last reported 4.7% though not directly comparable. It is positive from disclosures and future growth estimation perspective • Tech Mahindra reported 2.7% QoQ dollar revenue growth to $924 million (2.9% estimate) led by growth in manufacturing, Europe and MES merger contribution while telecom was muted. EBITDA margins improved 20 bps to 20.2% led by operational efficiencies • Divi's Lab’s revenues grew 14.6% to | 791.1 crore, below I-direct estimate of | 831.1 crore. EBITDA margins declined 624 bps to 36.3% against I-direct estimate of 37.5% • India has decided to commission over 5 million tonnes (MT) of underground crude oil storages by October to ensure uninterrupted oil supply to the country for about two months in case of disruptions in imports from oil producing countries due to geopolitical reasons • Air turbine fuel (ATF) prices have been reduced by 11.3% Sensex Nifty 30-Jan 26000 8000 28-Jan 27000 8200 23-Jan 8400 21-Jan 28000 19-Jan 29000 8600 15-Jan 30000 8800 9-Jan 9000 7-Jan Markets Yesterday • Domestic markets ended in the red as investors booked profit at higher levels ahead of RBI’s policy meeting on February 3 amid Chinese growth concerns that gripped the markets • US markets ended negative reflecting a negative reaction to the Commerce Department report showing that US economic growth slowed more-than-expected in the last three months of 2014 Today’s Highlights 5-Jan Market Outlook Following weak global cues, the Indian market is expected to open gap down. RBI’s policy meet tomorrow would be the key monitorable, going ahead. Stock specific movement is expected to continue based on quarterly earnings. NSE (LHS) Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd) 29,183 29,682 -1.7 0.0 6.1 17.5 8,809 8,952 -1.6 0.0 6.4 17.4 Institutional Activity FII (| cr) DII (| cr) CY13 112,221 -73,385 CY14 99,525 -30,570 YTD CY15 11,592 -7,982 Yesterday Last 5 Days -772 6,155 -38 -5,094 World Indices – Monthly performance Germany 10,694 9.1% France 4,604 8.4% NSE 8,809 6.8% BSE 29,183 6.5% U.K. 6,749 3.1% Kospi 1,950 1.8% Shanghai 3,147 1.4% Nikkei 17,580 1.3% Nasdaq 4,635 -3.0% Dow Jones 17,165 -4.5% Nifty Heat Map HCL Tech BHEL Wipro Infosys Power Grid Ultratech Tech M. HDFC Bank TCS HDFC Ltd 1,791.8 8.7% 291.8 1.3% 606.6 0.6% 2,141.9 -0.2% 148.0 -0.5% 3,140.4 -0.7% 2,868.5 -1.2% 1,077.4 -1.6% 2,482.1 -2.5% 1,262.5 -4.0% Tata power NTPC 90.5 2.7% 143.7 1.3% Sesa Sterlite 202.0 Sun Pharma 917.8 Bajaj Auto 0.2% -0.2% 2,391.7 -0.5% Cairn India 232.9 United Spirits 3,451.4 Hindalco Asian Paints PNB -0.8% -1.3% 139.7 -1.9% 857.8 -2.7% 189.7 -4.7% BPCL NMDC Tata Steel Cipla Bharti Airtel HUL L&T Axis Bank Ambuja Cement ICICI Bank 748.9 2.0% 141.5 1.0% 390.5 0.0% 695.8 -0.2% 373.7 -0.6% 932.6 -1.0% 1,700.6 -1.4% 588.1 -1.9% 248.8 -2.8% 360.7 -5.2% ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Lupin IDFC GAIL 1,585.3 2.0% 172.1 0.8% 423.0 0.0% Hero Moto 2,865.5 Indusind Bank 870.2 Maruti ACC Tata Motors Coal India SBI -0.4% -0.7% 3,647.4 -1.1% 1,560.5 -1.4% 585.2 -2.2% 360.9 -3.8% 309.0 -5.5% DLF JSPL ONGC ITC 169.9 2.0% 158.7 0.8% 351.4 -0.2% 368.6 -0.4% Kotak Bank 1,322.2 Grasim Ind 3,884.1 RIL M&M Dr Reddy Bank of Baroda -0.7% -1.2% 915.3 -1.5% 1,265.1 -2.4% 3,233.3 -3.9% 193.2 -11.1% Markets Today Commodities Gold (|/10 gm) Silver (|/kg) Crude ($/barrel) Copper ($/tonne) Currency USD/INR EUR/USD USD/YEN ADRs HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Tata Motors Infosys Dr Reddys Labs Close Previous Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) 27,960 37,495 51.5 5541 28,087 38,602 53.0 5433 -0.5 -2.9 -2.9 2.0 3.4 0.0 -2.9 0.0 3.4 2.7 -10.3 -13.0 61.87 1.13 117.55 61.87 1.13 117.49 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 1.9 -6.4 1.9 57.0 12.0 49.3 34.1 50.5 60.0 12.7 51.2 34.6 54.0 -5.0 -5.3 -3.6 -1.6 -6.5 12.4 NA 15.6 8.3 0.9 12.3 NA 16.7 8.3 0.0 Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore) Sectoral Index Sector 3,745 25,432 4,050 24,551 10000 3,961 22,507 20000 22-Jan 23-Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 0 BSE Cash NSE Cash 23-Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 196,875 22-Jan 580,849 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 570,001 NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) 30-Jan NSE Derivative Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) Close Previous Change % Change Volume Auto 19985.9 20231.1 -245.2 -1.2 2444000 Banks 22715.5 23453.1 -737.6 -3.1 13561000 BSE Small Cap 11329.3 11378.8 -49.5 -0.4 66923000 Capital Goods 17095.7 17218.1 -122.4 -0.7 10089000 Consumer Durables 10655.4 10856.3 -200.9 -1.9 843000 8275.5 8321.4 -45.9 -0.6 1667000 Healthcare 15666.5 15749.8 -83.3 -0.5 1049000 IT 11178.7 11156.4 22.3 0.2 1087000 Metals 10190.2 10276.1 -85.8 -0.8 5115000 Mid Cap 10738.6 10771.1 -32.5 -0.3 112732000 Oil & Gas 10143.2 10208.5 -65.3 -0.6 1706000 FMCG 30000 3,891 21,480 Prior Values 5,251.34bln IN -7.8bln mo 25.4bln $ 322.04bln $ 5.30% 4.50% 34.83bln $ 3.80% 3.00% -34.6bln $ 9.43bln $ 5.20% -7.80% 0.11% 1.57% 4.00% 7.75% 6.75% 391,074 Latest Values 5,323.81bln IN 10.1bln mo 4.70% 38.6bln $ - 4,032 21,475 Release Date 30-Jan 03~08Dec 09~16Feb 6-Feb 9-Feb 30-May 09~16Feb 12-Feb 12-Feb 03~08Dec 09~16Feb 16-Feb 16-Feb 16-Feb 16-Feb 3-Feb 3-Feb 3-Feb 350,427 Period Dec Q3 Jan w/e Q3 12M Jan Dec Dec Q3 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan N/A N/A N/A 3,557 19,255 Key Domestic Economic Indicator Fed Fiscal Deficit Current Account Exports - USD FX Reserves, USD Final GDP Quarterly yy GDP Annual Imports - USD Industrial Output yy Manufacturing Output Trade Deficit - RBI Trade Deficit Govt - USD WPI Food yy WPI Fuel yy WPI Inflation yy WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy RBI Cash Reserve Ratio RBI Repo Rate RBI Reverse Repo Rate 251,234 Key Data Points Power 2224.5 2205.2 19.3 0.9 25049000 PSU 8205.1 8344.2 -139.1 -1.7 28379000 Real Estate 1811.4 1772.8 38.6 2.2 34765000 Real Estate Capital Goods Consumer Power Healthcare Auto FMCG Banks IT Mid Cap BSE Small Oil & Gas PSU Metals -10.0 17.7 11.4 11.2 7.4 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.3 6.1 4.7 3.3 3.2 0.2 -4.7 -5.0 0.0 5.0 (%) 10.0 15.0 20.0 Key News for Today Company/Industry Dabur India News Dabur India's Q3FY15 results were below our estimate on the revenue front and in line with our estimates on the EBITDA as well as earnings front. Dabur reported revenue growth of 9.2% YoY to | 2073.6 crore (I-direct estimate: | 2196.4 crore). Operating margins came in higher than our estimate at 16.9% (I-direct estimate: 16.0%). The improvement in margins has been mainly on the back of 100 bps savings in raw material cost. Higher EBITDA and lower tax outgo led to 16.5% growth in net profit to | 283.7 crore ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research View WIth volume growth of 7.4%, Dabur has seen one of the better growth rates in the FMCG space. We remain positive on the stock Impact Key News for Today Strides Acrolab Strides Arcolab's oral dosage facility (KRS Gardens) at Bangalore has been found acceptable by the United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA). The inspection was carried out in August 2014 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research The oral dosage facility in Bangalore manufactures oral dosage forms such as tablets, capsules (both hard & soft gelatine) and sachets. The manufacturing plants support important current and future submissions for the US market Sensex Chart Technical Outlook We said, "Failure to sustain above the candle can open up negative options..." The index opened 162 points higher but failing to sustain above Thursday's candle, shaved off 774 points intra-day, before ending 499 points or 1.6% lower. While the Realty Index was up 2.1%, the Bankex lost over 3%. The A/D ratio also worsened to 1:2. The action formed a Dark Cloud Cover (DCC), comprising the biggest intra-day loss since May 16, 2014, the day of the Lok Sabha election results last year. After the sell-off, holding around the last gap-up can open up limited positive options. However, follow-up weakness/close below the DCC could test the previous resistance marked at 28822. Pivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture Index/Stocks Close 29182.95 8808.90 1560.45 627.30 51.95 1797.55 116.00 91.10 1313.55 242.55 290.75 65.70 857.75 1247.75 2391.70 193.15 266.25 1423.05 SENSEX NIFTY ACC ADANI ENTER. ADANI POWER ADITYA BIRLA ALLAHABAD BANK ANDHRA BANK APOLLO HOSPITALS APOLLO TYRES ARVIND ASHOK LEYLAND ASIAN PAINTS AUROBINDO PHARMA BAJAJ AUTO BOB BOI BATA INDIA S1 28887.55 8723.80 1534.05 619.90 51.90 1774.95 113.05 90.55 1280.10 241.70 285.30 64.85 845.05 1244.65 2371.85 178.95 256.75 1402.20 S2 28797.00 8697.45 1520.35 599.40 51.25 1768.25 111.30 88.35 1263.00 238.70 278.15 63.85 831.25 1237.90 2361.75 176.75 253.55 1393.35 R1 29274.40 8834.55 1562.50 660.85 53.20 1802.00 117.25 95.00 1324.30 247.70 291.75 65.90 862.25 1258.15 2392.85 196.50 268.65 1429.55 R2 29467.85 8889.95 1576.70 670.45 53.90 1815.55 119.35 95.85 1346.45 250.55 295.00 66.45 870.85 1272.25 2403.35 205.25 274.60 1443.25 Trend -ve -ve -ve +ve +ve -ve -ve +ve -ve +ve -ve -ve -ve +ve -ve -ve -ve -ve Nifty Trend Trend Reversal Support Resistance 20 Days EMA 200 days EMA Intraday Short Term Down 8810 8760-8720 8810-8850 0 0 Up 8600 8600 9200 8615 7826 Advances / Declines Advances 1194 569 BSE NSE Declines 1669 911 Daily Technical Calls 1. Buy Apollo Tyre in range of 242.50-243.50 2. Sell Allahabad Bank below 116.00 *All recommendations are of February Future See Momentum Pick for more details Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – February 2014 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200 60.0 Intraday Derivative Strategy Buy ITC FEB Fut at 368.00-369.00 View: Bullish Strategy: Buy Future Target 1: 372 Target 2: 375 Stop Loss: 365 Market Lot: 1000 CMP : 371 8 33 17 48 43 40 42 37 25 20 31 43 106 28 45 3 3 40.0 20.0 52 0.0 20.0 Call 40.0 Put 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Sell CANBAN FEB Fut at 455.00-456.00 View: Bearish Strategy: Sell Future Target 1: 452.50 Target 2: 442.60 Stop Loss: 459.50 Market Lot: 1000 CMP : 449 See Daily Derivatives for more details ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Unchanged 112 69 Results/Events Calendar 12 January Monday India Industrial Prod. YoY India CPI YoY 0 0 0 19 January Monday InfoEdge, Mindtree Hindustan Zinc HUL, Atul Auto CCL Products ECB Current Account 26 January Monday Japan Trade Balance Japan Import/Export YoY 0 0 0 02 February Monday Bharat Forge HSBC India Manu. PMI 0 0 0 09 February Monday Navneet Education 0 0 0 0 13 14 January Tuesday IndusInd Bank, DCB Bank UK CPI YoY UK PPI YoY 0 0 20 Kajaria Ceramics, NIIT Tech TV18, LIC Housing Finance Yes Bank India WPI YoY Eurozone Industrial Prod. YoY 21 January Tuesday Kotak Mahindra Bank Rallis India South Indian Bank Jindal Saw China GDP & Ind. Prod YoY 27 28 Tuesday Maruti Suzuki Amara Raja, Idea Cellular Titan Company UK GDP YoY US Service PMI 03 04 Tuesday Hero Motocorp,Lupin,NHPC PNB, ACC, Shree Cement NHPC, JSPL, Marico Jubilant Life Sciences India Monetary Policy 10 Tata Power Gujarat Pipavav Bharti Airtel Aurobindo Pharma APL Apollo 11 February Tuesday Motherson Sumi Cadila Healthcare ENIL 0 0 Wednesday Bata India NCC, BPCL Syndicate Bank Container Corporation 0 Date 2-Feb 2-Feb 2-Feb 3-Feb 3-Feb 3-Feb 3-Feb 4-Feb 4-Feb 4-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 5-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb 6-Feb Event HSBC India Manu. PMI HSBC China Manu. PMI Markit US Manu. PMI RBI Cash Reserve Ratio RBI Repurchase Rate RBI Reverse Repo Rate PPI YoY HSBC India Services PMI HSBC India Composite PMI HSBC China Composite PMI HSBC China Services PMI Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Trade Balance GDP Annual Estimate YoY Trade Balance 06 February Thursday 12 January Friday January Friday Mahindra Life, NTPC, eClerx JSW Steel, Sun TV, BOB Shoppers Stop, PVR, HCL Dabur, Indoco Rem, Tech M Kansai, Ashoka Buildcon PTC India, HEG Vardhman Textiles Gulf Oil Lubricants Tata Motors, Petronet LNG Apcotex Ind., IRB Infra February Major Economic Events this week 30 January 05 February Friday EPC Industrie, Wabco Colgate, UltraTech Cement India Eight Infra. Industries China Manufacturing PMI US Manufacturing PMI Thursday Dr. Reddy's Lab, Essel Pro. HDFC, IDFC, Asian Paints Gandhi Sp. Tubes, Blue Dart Ashok Leyland,Gateway Dist. Sesa Sterlite, TajGVK Hotels Wednesday 23 January 29 January Wednesday January Axis bank, Wipro, V-Guard Reliance Ind., Oberoi Realty US Ind. Prod. MoM US Manufacturing Prod US CPI YoY Thursday Biocon, Cairn India Somany Ceramics Dish TV, VST Industries Essar Ports US Initial Jobless Claims Torrent Pharma, EIH Pidilite Industries, Sintex Jyothy Labs, Havells India Ajanta Pharma Aban Offshore, Accelya Kale February 22 January 16 January Thursday TCS, Cyient, HSIL Bajaj Auto, DB Corp Federal Bank, PTC India Fin. US Initial Jobless Claims US Continuing Claims Wednesday Zee Entertainment TTK Prestige, ITC Siyaram Silk KPIT 0 January 15 January Wednesday Friday Apollo Tyres, TV Today Tata Steel, GAIL Jet Airways, Dena Bank NMDC, Rupa & Company Maharashtra Seamless 13 February Thursday Page Industries Bajaj Electricals, ONGC Hindalco, CESC 0 0 February February Friday M&M Nestle HPCL 0 0 17 January Saturday Unichem Labs Symphony Ltd 0 0 0 24 January Saturday United Spirits Gati, Tata Coffee City Union Bank Persistent Systems 0 31 January Saturday Exide Industries Divi's Labs 0 0 0 07 February Saturday IPCA Labs, JK cement VA Tech Wabag 0 0 0 14 February Saturday Apollo Hospitals, Cox&Kings Sun Pharma 0 0 0 Bulk Deals CountryPeriod IN Jan CH Jan F US Jan F IN 3-Feb IN 3-Feb IN 3-Feb EC Dec IN Jan IN Jan CH Jan CH Jan US 31-Jan US 24-Jan US Dec IN 1Q A UK Dec Expected Previous -54.5 -49.8 ---4.00% -7.75% -6.75% -- -1.60% -51.1 -52.9 -51.4 -53.4 ------ -$39.0B -4.70% -- -£1406 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research No. of shares Price (|) Company BSE* Arihant Capital Markets Shalibhadra Finance Ltd Client Name Type Midpoint Tradelink Private Limited Signora Finance Private Limited Sell Buy 145,001 25,371 23.8 33.0 NSE* HDIL Bay Pond MB Buy 2,502,554 106.2 Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Buy 2,442,000 83.5 Recent Releases Date Report 30 January 2015 Result Update – Sesa Sterlite 30 January 2015 Result Update – East India Hotels 30 January 2015 Result Update – IDFC 30 January 2015 Result Update – Pidilite Industries 30 January 2015 Result Update – HCL Technologies Research Product Basket Research Perspective Product Pre-market view & Recommendation Opening Bell Daily Calls Daily Derivative Daily comprehensive snapshot containing information & in-depth analysis of Indian & US markets, major headlines, technical view, derivatives statistics, economic indicators, commodities, market indicators, domestic & global events. Features four stocks & Nifty view with a trading outlook for the day based on shortterm technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading strategy for a day in the futures & options segment based on news events, market trends, technical & other factors governing movements in stocks. Frequency Time frame Avg. Returns objective Location on ICICIdirect.com Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day - Market Page, Trading PageScroller & iCLICK-2-GAIN Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day 2-3 % Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day 2-3 % Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Daily 1 – 2 Days 1 - 2% Daily 1 Days 1 - 2% Daily 1 – 2 Days 1 - 2% Intraday Recommendation BTST Calls Margin Calls Derivative Calls Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Provides simplified derivative strategies such as spreads and covered calls Derivative Strategies Weekly & Monthly recommendations Weekly Calls Weekly Technicals Weekly Derivatives Market Trends Global Derivatives Monthly Technical’s Technical trends for a week considering key technical indicators & statistical information Features stocks with a trading outlook for a week based on short-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading opportunities in futures & options segment based on data analysis, overall market trend, volatility & open interest positions of securities. Nifty outlook for the month based on F&O data, FII activity, Heavyweights OI analysis along with statistical inputs. Derivatives outlook on global equity indices, currencies and commodities. Also, elaborating the likely impact on the Indian bourses. Trading outlook for a month based on medium-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Medium & Long term recommendations Tecno Funda On basis of Technical and Fundamental whenever opportunity occurs we give these Pick/Technical calls Deliver Call Positional Derivatives Stocks on the move Identifying Out-performers/Under-performers vis a vis index along with positional recommendation on Stocks/Nifty. Covers stocks, which are likely to show significant upward movement in the next 15 days due to change in trader sentiment. Detailed Company Report Fundamental report understanding the business model and future prospects of the company & valuations. Equity Model Portfolio High Dividend Yield Stocks A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large cap, midcap and diversified Features high dividend yielding stocks for assured returns on investment Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN iClick-2-Gain Weekly 1-7 days 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Weekly 1-7 days 4 – 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Weekly 1-7 days 4 – 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Monthly 30 days - Trading Page Monthly 30 days - Trading Page Monthly 30 days 10% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iClick-2-Invest Not regularly recommended 3 months 20% Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN Fortnightly Fortnightly – every alternate Wednesday > 7-15 days 5 – 7% When published > 1 year > 20% & above Quarterly Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Pankaj Pandey Head – Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected] ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research [email protected] Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Pankaj Pandey Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. 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