1. Ingeniería

Momentum Picks
February 6, 2015
Market Outlook
Domestic Indices
Indices
Close
Change
Change%
28850.97
-32.14
-0.11
8711.70
-12.00
-0.14
8751.30
-25.05
-0.29
S&PBSE 500
11203.24
S&PBSE Midcap
10603.57
-48.99
-137.81
-0.44
-1.28
S&PBSE Smallcap
11283.14
-149.26
-1.31
Indices
Close
17884.88
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
4765.10
6865.93
FTSE
DAX
10905.41
24770.12
Hang Seng
Nikkei
17646.09
8726.00
SGX Nifty
* Asian Market at 7:30 am.IST
Change
211.86
48.40
5.91
-5.91
-0.63
134.94
-23.00
Change%
1.20
1.03
0.09
-0.05
0.00
0.77
-0.26
S&P BSE Sensex
CNX Nifty
Nifty future
Snapshot
Global Indices
Day’s action
Equity benchmarks ended a highly volatile session of trade on a weak note and extended the losing streak to a
fifth consecutive session on Thursday dragged down by a late sell-off across key heavyweights. The Sensex lost
427 points from the day’s high (29277) to end at 28850, down 32 points or 0.11%. The Nifty lost more than 130
points from the high (8838) to close at 8711, down 12 point or 0.14%. Broader markets underperformed the
benchmarks as the BSE midcap and small cap indices ended down 1.3% each. The overall market breadth was
negative
• The Nifty opened on a flat note and traded with a positive bias in the first half. The index gained momentum
towards mid-session and climbed to a high of 8838. However, a strong bout of selling pressure near identical
highs of Monday and Tuesday (8840) swept the markets off their feet as the index plummeted over 130 points
from the session’s high to end at 8711. Heavy selling pressure was seen across the banking, metals, power
and realty indices, which lost over 2% each. The IT index outperformed by gaining over 2%
• The price action formed a small bodied bear candle with a large upper shadow, which resembles an Inverted
Hammer highlighting the late sell-off. The index reacted sharply lower precisely from this week’s high of 8840.
The current corrective bias will remain intact as long as the index fails to post a strong close above 8840
•
•
CNX Nifty Technical Picture
Nifty
Trend
Intraday
Down
Trend Reversal
Short Term
Rangebound
8780
Support
8670-8640
8600
Resistance
8745-8780
8900
20 Days EMA
8657
200 days EMA
7862
Structurally
speaking
•
Institutional Activity
Cash Segment (| Cr)
5-Feb-15
FII
-27.4
DII
325.6
4-Feb-15
-83.8
-72.4
3-Feb-15
-264.4
-137.3
2-Feb-15
-630.0
-224.1
30-Jan-15
-771.6
-37.6
•
Oscillators
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
The Nifty remained in a corrective mode for a fifth consecutive session and retraced 50% of the gains
witnessed in the preceding 10 session rise from 8380 to 8996. We expect the index to continue its breather and
ease off towards 8600 in the coming sessions
The index has entered a corrective mode after testing the key overhead trend line (marked in maroon)
connecting all major swing highs since May 2014. Over the past seven months, the index has tended to enter a
corrective phase to form a higher bottom after testing this rising trend line. The overall medium-term price
structure remains bullish. We expect the index to witness a higher base formation in the vicinity of 8600 before
continuing the larger uptrend. Stock specific action will continue while the index takes a breather ahead of the
Union Budget
From a short-term perspective, the recent breakout area and December 2014 high of 8626 is expected to act as
immediate support for the index. The placement of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2015 up move
(8065 to 8925) around the 8600 region makes this a key support area for the index
The current rally from December 2014 low of 7961 to 8985 (1024 points) is the largest in magnitude over the
last one year. Since February 2014 each major directional up move has measured average 900 points. The
current up leg getting larger than all preceding up moves signals an extending market, which holds further
upside potential. The minimum 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the October-December 2014 up move projected
from the December 2014 low of 7961 opens upsides towards 9200 in coming months
Among oscillators, the 14 period RSI continues to work its way out of the recent overbought readings and is poised
at a neutral territory with a reading of 57. The shedding of overstretched conditions by short-term momentum
indicators is a healthy sign and will create room for further upsides, going forward
Nifty futures are set to open on a subdued note amid mixed global cues. After the late sell-off on Thursday and
further weak opening in today's session, some initial pullbacks are not ruled out. Utilise pullbacks towards 87808790 on Nifty February futures to create shorts for target of 8735 with a protective stop loss of 8810
Intraday strategy
Intraday Spot
levels
The Nifty spot has resistance at 8745, 8780 while support is at 8670, 8640
Exhibit 1: CNX NSE Nifty – Daily Candlestick Chart
CNX Nifty Spot
Open
High
Low
Close
8733.10
8838.45
8683.65
8711.70
The Nifty formed a small bodied bear candle with a large upper shadow which
resembles an Inverted Hammer highlighting the selling pressure at this weeks
opening high of 8840 level. We expect the index to ease off towards 8600 levels
in the coming sessions
1024 points
8626
903 points
8065
7961
7723
The 14 period RSI continues to work off its overstretched conditions
and is poised at neutral territory with a reading of 57
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
CNX Bank Nifty Futures Outlook
CNX Bank Nifty Futures
Indices
CNX Bank Nifty
Close
Change
change%
19,147.1
-137.6
-0.7
Day’s action
•
CNX Bank Nifty Spot Performance
Performance in %
Index
Bank Nifty
Current
19,051.9
1M
3.4
3M
9.8
6M
26.9
12M
86.7
Day’s action
CNX Bank Nifty Future Technical Picture
Bank Nifty
Trend
Intraday
Down
Trend Reversal
Short Term
Rangebound
19370
Support
19060-18900
18700
Resistance
19370-19575
20000
20 Days EMA
19559
200 days EMA
16334
CNX Bank Nifty vs. Nifty
8600
8300
8000
7700
7400
7100
6800
6500
Structurally
speaking
6-Aug
25-Aug
11-Sep
29-Sep
21-Oct
11-Nov
27-Nov
15-Dec
1-Jan
19-Jan
5-Feb
20200
19000
17800
16600
15400
14200
13000
Bank Nifty (RHS)
Bank Nifty future traded with high volatility and continues to drag lower. The index extended its recent
decline for a seventh consecutive session weighed down by profit booking across banking heavyweights.
Nifty February Future settled at 19147, down by 137 points or 0.7% for the day
NSE (LHS)
Oscillators
Intraday Future
levels
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
The Bank Nifty futures opened on flat note and took support at its previous session’s low (19220) and
traded with a positive bias in the first half. The index gained strong momentum in the second half and
made a high of 19574 in the afternoon trade. However, strong selling pressure at higher levels in the
last hour of trade saw the index giving up all its gains and closing down 0.7% for the day
• The price action formed a bear candle with a long upper shadow signalling a strong selling pressure at
higher levels. It carries a lower low indicating continuance of the corrective trend. The current profit
booking trend is expected to continue as long as the index fails to form a higher high and higher low
on the daily chart
• The Bank Nifty continued to cool off for a seventh consecutive session and has retraced the previous
up move (18306 to 20934) by more then 61.8% on Thursday. The sharp decline in the last seven
sessions has led the short-term stochastic into the extreme oversold territory. Hence, the index can
see sideways price action in the coming session, thus forming base for further upsides in short-term
• Since August 2013, each major directional up move on the Bank Nifty has measured average 3500
points. The index replicated this price wise trait and almost achieved our target area of 21000 from the
December 2014 low of 17600. Sustainability above 21000 will be the key thing to watch in the shortterm as it would signal an extending market. In extending markets, the next logical price objective
based on minimum 123.6% Fibonacci extension of the preceding 3500 point rally would open up
further upsides towards 21900 over the medium-term
• On Wednesday, the index closed below the short-term trend line support in place since October 2014
as can be seen on the adjacent chart. A sustained breach of the support line will signal an extended
profit booking and the index can test levels of 18700 being the confluence of the 61.8% retracement of
the December-January up move from 17600 to 20934 and the bullish gap area of January 15, 2015
(18690-19125)
Among oscillators, the short-term stochastic, as a result of sharp decline in the previous seven session is
in oversold territory and placed near previous lows. Hence, a sideways consolidation is likely in the coming
sessions
For the upcoming session, Bank Nifty February futures has supports at 19060, 18900 while resistances are
at 19370, 19575
Page 3
Exhibit 2: CNX Bank Nifty Generic Future – Daily Candlestick Chart
The Bank Nifty formed a bear candle with a long upper shadow signalling selling
pressure at higher levels. The index has closed below the short term trend line support in
place since October 2014. Sustenance below the support line will signal an extended
profit booking and the index can test levels of 18700 in the coming sessions
20934
19284
18930
CNX Bank Nifty Future
Open
High
Low
Close
19343.30
19574.90
19061.60
19147.05
Gap @ 1869019115
17600
Gap @ 1599016190
15180
The 14 period RSI has eased off from the overbought territory and is placed near previous support area.
While short-term stochastic has also approached oversold territory after the recent correction
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 4
Trend Scanner
Sectoral Indices Performance
Sector
Close
Points Chg % Change
Positive Trends
Candlestick Patterns
Auto
19593.92
-133.69
-0.68
Scrip Name
Close
% Change
10-day SMA
Delivery (%)
Banks
21813.19
-102.06
-0.47
Infosys Ltd
2193.80
2.38
2157.44
68.21
Bullish Engulfing
BSE Small Cap
11283.14
-149.26
-1.31
Kajaria Ceramics Ltd
750.40
4.49
724.90
68.35
Scrip Name
Close
Scrip Name
Capital Goods
16845.71
-143.24
-0.84
Shree Cement Ltd
11001.85
2.93
10914.12
61.10
Shree Cement
10980.0
Jindal Saw
Consumer Durables
10447.66
-240.4
-2.25
Gateway Distriparks Ltd
393.30
3.51
386.19
70.10
Jubilant FoodWorks
FMCG
Bullish Candlestick Formations
8221.46
48.09
0.59
Healthcare
15486.19
-146.02
-0.93
Bullish Continuation pattern
IT
11521.21
236.19
2.09
BPCL
Metals
10239.18
-198.79
-1.90
Mid Cap
10603.57
-137.81
-1.28
Oil & Gas
10198.12
-118.51
-1.15
Power
2130.99
-61.35
-2.80
PSU
8037.49
-122.83
-1.51
Real Estate
1757.69
-49.50
-2.74
Negative Trends
HCL Technologies
Scrip Name
Close
% Change
10-day SMA
Delivery (%)
Bank of India
249.45
-2.96
276.44
23.21
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd
469.80
-5.62
489.89
25.48
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd
146.30
-4.88
154.92
41.56
Overbought Stocks
11.6
8.6
6.1
5.9
5.5
5.5
2.9
2.8
0.9
0.5
0.2
TCS
Close
79.0
1440.0
Bearish Continuation pattern
746.2
1970.8
JP Associates
26.0
Jindal Steel & Power
145.5
743.5
Bank of India
247.8
2553.0
Reliance Infra
466.5
1075.2
ONGC
Evening Star
355.9
Note: For Candlestick pattern description please refer towards
end of the report.
Oversold Stocks
Stocks rising for 5 days & stochastic overbought
Stocks falling for 5 days & stochastic oversold
Scrip Name
LTP
Stochastic
Scrip Name
Dabur India
266.25
85.25
417.4
88.09
United Phosphorus
Bearish Engulfing
Piercing Line
Godrej CP
Sectoral Indices - Monthly Performance (%)
Real Estate
IT
Capital Goods
Consumer Durables
FMCG
Healthcare
Oil & Gas
Auto
Power
Mid Cap
Banks
BSE Small Cap
PSU
Metals
Glenmark
Bearish Candlestick Formations
LTP
Stochastic
Bata India
1366
12.82
Hindustan Unilever
908.5
17.08
Thomas Cook
191.5
19.5
Stocks hitting 52 week high
Scrip Name
HCL Tech
Lupin
LTP
1965.85
1588.7
Ramco system
526.9
Tata Chemical
465.35
Wipro
637.5
-0.3
-3.2
-6.2
-12
-2
8
18
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 5
Global Asset Classes
Market Activity Report
Global Currencies
Nifty Heat Map
Swiss Franc
0.923
0.921
-0.26
Bajaj
Auto
2,245.3
L&T
Global Treasury Yields
Closing Yield (%)
Previous Yield (%)
India 10 year
7.70
7.70
US 10 Year
1.82
1.82
EURO 10 Year
0.36
0.37
GBP 10 Year
1.54
1.53
JPY 10 Year
0.38
0.36
Dr Reddy
Power
Grid
Cipla
Hindalco
Commodities
US Dollar
Close
Prev. Close
%Chg
Gold/ounce
1265.65
1264.82
0.01
Copper /ton
5743.5
5732.75
-0.15
57.23
56.57
1.24
Brent Crude/barrel
Sesa Goa
0.6%
0.0%
1,682.4
-0.4%
3,072.1
-0.8%
143.7
-1.8%
662.4
-2.3%
148.1
-2.9%
207.8
-4.1%
Lupin
Tata
Motors
Maruti
GAIL
Tata Steel
BHEL
JSPL
0.6%
1,578.3
-0.1%
589.2
-0.4%
3,522.7
-1.0%
423.9
-1.8%
379.3
-2.6%
276.9
-2.9%
146.3
-4.9%
ITC
Ranbaxy
Ambuja
Cement
Ultratech
NTPC
M&M
PNB
Reliance
Infra
368.9
0.4%
736.3
-0.1%
247.6
-0.5%
3,064.1
-1.1%
140.2
-1.9%
1,179.7
-2.6%
171.4
-3.2%
469.8
-5.6%
865.4
Grasim
Ind
3,887.5
RIL
Bharti
Airtel
IDFC
ICICI
Bank
ONGC
JP Asso.
0.2%
-0.2%
923.7
-0.5%
364.7
-1.2%
166.7
-2.2%
335.6
-2.6%
356.7
-3.2%
26.5
-7.0%
HDFC
Bank
1,076.5
Sun
Pharma
959.6
16,000.00
0.1%
8,000.00
Kotak
Bank
1,287.9
SBI
NMDC
DLF
0.8%
0.00
-0.3%
290.8
-0.8%
138.3
-1.3%
169.4
-2.3%
Cairn
India
247.0
Bank of
Baroda
177.6
Tata
power
24,000.00
-2.7%
NSE Derivatives Turnover (| crore)
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
-4.0%
NSE Derivative
29-Jan
30-Jan
2-Feb
3-Feb
4-Feb
5-Feb
83.3
-7.5%
Advances / Declines
NSE
BSE
4%
62%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
3,702
Indusind
Bank
0.9%
4,216
810.9
4,738
Asian
Paints
19,618
0.37
1,504.6
1.0%
5-Feb
0.780
ACC
909.1
208,617
0.783
2,847.3
HUL
20,224
Australian ($)
Hero
Moto
1.1%
BSE Cash
4-Feb
0.12
369.9
NSE Cash
32,000.00
172,476
0.01
117.530
Coal India
1.3%
21,682
1.533
117.380
1.1%
565.9
3-Feb
1.533
Japanese Yen
1,246.5
1.5%
Axis Bank
211,082
British Pound
HDFC Ltd
2,552.4
4,201
-0.08
2.4%
TCS
21,335
1.148
3.8%
2,193.8
2-Feb
1.147
Euro
4.0%
Infosys
156,780
0.04
1,972.7
4,050
93.569
HCL Tech
24,551
93.604
750.0
30-Jan
Dollar Index
BPCL
196,875
0.02
3,745
% Chg
61.754
25,432
Prev.close
61.739
29-Jan
Close
Rupee (|)
580,848
Spot
Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)
34%
72%
2% 26%
Page 6
Stock recommendations for the day
Exhibit 3: TCS (TCS)
Daily Candlestick Chart
Price trading in upward rising channel signalling continuation of positive trend in the
short term
TCS (TCS) February Future
CMP
2568.25
Comment : Price trading in upward rising channel and
MACD in uptrend forming higher high in daily
charts
Action :
Buy above 2570.00
Targets :
2600/2615/Higher
Stop-loss :
2552.00
MACD in uptrend forming higher high and taking support at its
signal line in the daily chart
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 7
Exhibit 4: Glenmark (GLEPHA)
Daily Candlestick Chart
Trend line breakout and price close above 21 day EMA indicating
further upsides in coming sessions
Glenmark (GLEPHA) February Future
CMP
743.65
Comment : Short term trendline breakout and price
above 21 day EMA and RSI in up trend
forming higher high in daily chart
Action :
Buy in the range of 740.00-741.00
Targets :
752/758/Higher
Stop-loss :
734.00
RSI in up trend forming higher high in daily chart supports the bullish bias in price
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 8
Exhibit 5: Reliance Infrastructure (BSES)
Daily Candlestick Chart
Price facing resistance at 50 day EMA and rising support line
breached signalling continuation of profit booking in the coming
sessions
Reliance Infra (BSES) February Future
CMP
473.20
Comment : Price facing resistance at 50 day EMA and
rising support line breached and RSI
generated bearish crossover in the daily
chart
Action :
Sell below 473.00
Targets :
466/462/Lower
Stop-loss :
477.00
Bearish crossover of the RSI below its nine period’s average in the daily chart
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 9
Exhibit 6: Bank of India (BANIND)
Weekly Candlestick Chart
Short term trend line joining major lows is breached signalling
continuation of profit booking in the coming sessions
Bank of India (BANIND) February Future
CMP
250.50
Comment : Short term trendline joining major lows is
breached and MACD giving sell signal in the
weekly chart
Action :
Sell below 250.00
Targets :
245/243/Lower
Stop-loss :
252.50
MACD in sell mode moving below signal line indicating further downsides in the coming
sessions
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 10
Previous Day’s Performance
Scrip
Product
Strategy
Recommended Price
Targets
SL
Gain/Loss %*
Lupin
Tata Chemical
LIC Housing Finance
Future
Future
Future
Buy
Buy
Sell
In range of 1586-1588
In range of 471-472
below 457
1610/1622/+
479/483/+
449.5/445.5/-
1575.00
467.50
461.20
2.10
1.50
-0.90
Comment
Target 2 almost achieved
Target 1 achieved
Stoploss triggered
* Return Opportunity
Stock profits: Avg 0.90% per trade
(Cum. Profits over last 201 days:279.25%)
Strike Rate for the day: 2/3
(Cum strike rate over 201 days: 266/443
Note: The follow-up and performance review table of the strategies indicates the profit opportunity that was available in the strategies. Individual profits may vary,
depending upon the entry and exit price and stop losses.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 11
Nifty Options OI Distribution
Derivative Comments
•
Nifty Call Put Concentration (FEB)
60
50
33.0
2.6
30.6
19.0
32.9
18.1
27.7
24.1
Call
1.6
0
11.4
27.2
10
29.8
20
10.4
27.0
50.8
30
8.4
OI in Lacs
40
Put
• OI addition: We saw long build-up in Jubilant Foods, BPCL, Bata India and IndusInd Bank while short build-up was seen in Uco
18.5
21.7
21.2
21.3
23.5
24.3
25.2
26.4
28.6
31.6
25.4
26.2
25.7
26.1
26.0
25.6
Bank and Idea Cellular
920
900
880
860
840
820
800
780
14-Jan
15-Jan
16-Jan
19-Jan
20-Jan
21-Jan
22-Jan
23-Jan
27-Jan
28-Jan
29-Jan
30-Jan
2-Feb
3-Feb
4-Feb
5-Feb
OI In million
Nifty OI vs. Future Price
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Nifty Futures OI
Nifty Fut Price (RHS)
• OI shedding: We saw short covering in Coal India, ACC, NHPC and HCL Tech whereas long closure was seen in UPL, Voltas,
DLF and Wockhardt Ltd
OI Gainers
Symbol
Call (%)
8700
OI chg %
-4.49
IV (%)
18.28
OI chg %
-0.29
IV (%)
18.32
8800
12.24
17.95
12.80
17.57
8900
15.15
17.66
7.33
16.49
9000
10.96
17.34
-0.49
15.77
9100
-2.09
17.42
7.22
15.26
OI
% Chg
Price
% Chg
Symbol
OI
2517750
13.55
1,440
6.2
WOCKPHARMA
AUROPHARM
8575750
10.01
1,155
-5.2
COALINDIA
TATAPOWER
29884000
7.90
84
-7.7
SRTRANSFIN
2691000
UCOBANK
Put (%)
OI Losers
JUBLFOOD
DIVISLAB
Nifty Active Strikes
Strike
Post a flat start, the index witnessed decent buying, which helped it to gain 120 points. However, the news of the Greece
market opening 8% lower and Greece bank index down 20%, acted as a turning point. Due to some panic here as well, the
Nifty gave up all its gains and ended 15 points lower. Nifty future premium declined and settled at 40 points. India VIX
increased 2.81% and settled at 20.65
• FIIs sold | 27 crore while DIIs bought | 325 crore in the cash segment. FIIs sold | 576 crore in index futures and bought | 731
crore in index options. In stock futures, they bought | 275 crore
• The highest Put base is at the 8500 strike with 29 lakh shares while the highest Call base is at the 9000 strike with 51 lakh
shares. The 8800 and 8900 Calls saw addition of 2.44 and 0.90 lakh shares, respectively. The 8700 and 8600 Put strikes saw
addition of 1.75 and 1.55 lakh shares, respectively
Stock Analysis
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
673875
5.98
1,631
-1.0
UPL
21672000
5.66
69
-6.0
GLENMARK
% Chg
Price
% Chg
3391500
-22.89
1,240
-4.1
24145000
-13.62
369
0.7
796000
-12.24
1,158
0.6
4388000
-9.62
419
-2.6
-9.58
744
1.3
Page 12
Support and Resistance
SCRIP
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
CLOSE
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
TREND
28850.97
28774.7
28643.55
28566.35
29036.95
29168.1
29245.35
Neutral
8711.7
8689.45
8650.75
8628.65
8766.85
8805.55
8827.65
Neutral
+ve
1504.55
1505.85
1495.1
1484.35
1527.35
1535.75
1544.15
ADANI ENTER.
622.85
610.65
602.80
594.90
627.20
635.50
643.75
ADANI POWER
47.45
46.15
45.55
44.90
47.80
48.65
49.45
-ve
1750.60
1734.05
1722.80
1711.55
1758.55
1770.80
1783.05
-ve
107.25
106.20
104.45
103.40
109.70
111.40
112.50
86.60
84.50
83.75
82.95
87.25
88.65
90.00
-ve
1294.65
1278.15
1270.25
1262.35
1299.85
1310.70
1321.60
-ve
APOLLO TYRES
226.85
223.95
221.10
218.20
227.75
229.65
231.55
-ve
ARVIND
287.55
279.35
274.90
270.40
289.70
294.90
300.05
-ve
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSPITALS
ASHOK LEYLAND
-ve
Neutral
62.45
61.25
60.60
60.00
62.75
63.50
64.30
810.85
812.95
808.35
803.75
822.15
828.80
835.45
AUROBINDO PHARMA
1150.85
1128.00
1114.75
1101.55
1156.85
1171.30
1185.75
-ve
BAJAJ AUTO
2245.30
2241.05
2233.55
2220.70
2256.05
2263.50
2276.40
Neutral
BOB
177.55
173.30
171.80
170.35
178.55
181.20
183.80
BOI
249.45
244.40
242.35
240.30
251.00
254.35
257.65
BATA INDIA
1360.70
1351.90
1340.85
1327.95
1374.05
1385.15
1398.00
Neutral
BHARAT FORGE
Neutral
ASIAN PAINTS
-ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
1088.05
1082.00
1074.25
1065.50
1097.45
1105.20
1113.95
BPCL
750.00
749.30
736.85
724.40
774.20
779.65
785.05
BHARTI AIRTEL
364.70
359.20
356.10
353.05
365.10
368.10
371.05
-ve
BIOCON
420.30
413.30
411.55
409.80
421.20
425.20
429.15
-ve
-ve
+ve
CAIRNS INDIA
247.00
245.05
240.95
236.85
247.25
248.35
249.50
CANARA BANK
429.55
418.55
408.75
398.95
433.40
440.85
448.30
-ve
CENTURY TEXT.
525.00
522.55
518.15
509.75
531.35
535.75
544.15
Neutral
CESC
672.25
655.65
648.85
642.10
676.05
686.25
696.45
59.70
59.45
58.95
58.55
60.45
60.95
61.40
CIPLA
662.40
654.25
648.55
642.85
663.90
668.75
673.55
-ve
COAL INDIA
369.90
370.15
367.95
365.80
374.50
377.55
380.65
+ve
+ve
CHAMBAL FERT.
COLGATE PALM.
-ve
Neutral
1857.70
1851.30
1832.55
1813.80
1888.80
1900.60
1912.45
CROMPTON GREAVES
161.75
157.80
154.35
150.90
163.15
165.85
168.55
-ve
DABUR INDIA
267.90
266.35
264.80
262.80
269.45
271.00
273.00
Neutral
77.85
75.40
74.65
73.95
78.25
79.70
81.15
DISH TV
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
-ve
Page 13
SCRIP
DIVI'S LAB.
DLF
DR.REDDY'S LAB.
CLOSE
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
TREND
1622.00
1609.65
1594.20
1578.70
1622.15
1628.40
1634.65
-ve
169.40
166.95
163.45
159.95
170.00
171.55
173.10
-ve
3072.05
3057.15
3046.40
3035.60
3074.05
3082.50
3090.95
-ve
EXIDE IND.
191.65
189.30
187.55
185.75
192.25
193.70
195.15
-ve
FEDERAL BANK
137.05
133.45
132.40
131.40
136.90
138.60
140.30
-ve
+ve
FUTURE RETAIL
139.95
140.25
137.70
135.15
145.35
147.80
150.25
GAIL
423.90
419.30
415.30
411.25
425.00
427.85
430.70
-ve
5598.20
5476.85
5454.10
5431.35
5593.30
5651.55
5709.80
-ve
742.10
742.55
737.85
733.15
752.00
760.15
768.25
18.10
16.95
16.60
16.25
18.20
18.85
19.50
1078.45
1071.20
1055.30
1039.45
1102.95
1119.00
1135.05
GLAXO SMITH.C.H.
GLENMARK PHARMA.
GMR INFRA.
GODREJ CONSUMER
GODREJ IND.
GRASIM
HAVELL'S INDIA
+ve
-ve
+ve
305.35
300.70
295.50
290.30
306.10
308.80
311.50
-ve
3887.50
3849.90
3834.35
3818.80
3887.55
3906.40
3925.25
-ve
249.00
244.85
242.00
239.15
249.70
252.10
254.55
HCL TECH
1972.65
1959.75
1936.25
1912.80
2006.70
2012.80
2018.90
+ve
-ve
HDFC BANK
1076.50
1078.20
1072.60
1066.95
1089.40
1095.95
1102.50
+ve
HDFC
1246.45
1247.65
1226.70
1205.75
1289.60
1297.30
1305.05
+ve
HERO MOTO
2847.30
2843.00
2831.30
2819.60
2866.40
2894.90
2923.40
+ve
HEXAWARE TECH.
233.20
228.80
226.80
224.80
234.30
237.05
239.80
-ve
HINDALCO
148.05
145.25
143.30
141.35
148.80
150.60
152.40
-ve
HIND. UNILEVER
909.05
909.55
904.90
900.25
918.85
925.35
931.85
+ve
HPCL
605.30
607.85
599.80
591.75
623.95
630.40
636.85
+ve
HINDUSTAN ZINC
173.90
170.55
169.60
168.60
173.80
175.40
177.00
-ve
HDIL
105.70
102.95
100.35
97.80
106.20
107.80
109.45
-ve
ICICI BANK
335.60
330.45
328.70
326.95
336.75
339.90
343.00
-ve
65.75
64.15
63.75
63.30
66.20
67.20
68.25
-ve
IDBI
IDEA CELLULAR
154.25
152.95
151.95
150.95
154.40
155.10
155.85
-ve
NSE INFRA DEV FINANC
166.70
164.00
162.60
161.25
167.25
168.90
170.55
-ve
NSE IND.FIN.CORP.OF
INDUSIND BANK
INDIA CEMENTS
37.75
37.00
36.55
36.10
38.00
38.50
39.00
865.40
866.00
857.90
849.80
882.15
887.45
892.70
+ve
-ve
-ve
96.25
91.40
89.95
88.50
97.55
100.65
103.75
INDRAPRASTHA GAS
461.95
455.80
451.90
447.95
464.55
468.90
473.30
-ve
IOC
334.65
332.25
328.20
325.60
340.25
344.25
346.90
Neutral
IOB
50.25
47.90
47.50
47.05
51.15
52.80
54.40
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
-ve
Page 14
SCRIP
IB REAL ESTATE
CLOSE
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
TREND
76.95
74.60
73.35
72.10
77.70
79.25
80.80
2193.80
2190.55
2172.55
2154.55
2226.55
2235.10
2243.65
IRB INFRA.
254.50
244.95
240.90
236.85
256.15
261.75
267.35
-ve
ITC
368.90
368.55
366.45
364.35
372.75
374.05
375.35
+ve
INFOSYS
-ve
+ve
JAIPRAKASH ASS.
26.50
25.20
24.60
23.95
26.75
27.50
28.25
-ve
J.P.POWER VENT.
11.55
11.20
11.05
10.90
11.65
11.85
12.10
-ve
JAIN IRRIGATION
69.55
67.05
65.80
64.50
70.00
71.50
72.95
-ve
JINDAL ST&POW
146.30
142.40
140.10
137.75
147.35
149.80
152.25
-ve
JSW ENERGY
104.65
101.60
99.60
97.55
105.45
107.35
109.25
-ve
NSE JSW STEEL
976.50
965.15
959.65
954.10
979.55
986.75
993.90
-ve
JUBILANT FOOD
1431.95
1417.30
1387.15
1357.00
1477.65
1492.40
1507.20
KARNATAKA BANK
133.60
131.00
129.90
128.80
134.15
135.70
137.25
KOTAK MAH.BANK
1287.90
1281.45
1273.30
1262.45
1297.75
1305.90
1316.75
L&T
1682.40
1669.00
1656.55
1644.10
1684.95
1692.95
1700.90
459.95
459.30
454.30
449.30
469.30
474.90
480.50
LIC HOUSING
+ve
-ve
Neutral
-ve
+ve
NSE LUPIN
1578.30
1567.70
1554.95
1541.55
1593.10
1605.80
1619.25
Neutral
M&M
1179.70
1164.90
1159.70
1154.55
1184.90
1194.90
1204.90
-ve
MARUTI SUZUKI
3522.70
3488.15
3467.25
3446.40
3532.65
3554.90
3577.15
-ve
MCLEOD RUSSEL
211.55
209.45
208.00
206.60
212.10
213.45
214.80
-ve
M&M FIN.SERV.
256.00
251.85
248.55
245.25
257.05
259.70
262.30
-ve
39729.10
39496.75
39209.25
38921.75
39805.75
39960.25
40114.75
-ve
MRF
NSE NHPC
NMDC
20.05
19.90
19.70
19.55
20.25
20.40
20.60
138.25
136.95
136.10
135.25
138.50
139.30
140.10
Neutral
-ve
NSE NTPC
140.15
138.45
137.90
137.40
140.45
141.45
142.50
-ve
ONGC
356.65
350.95
347.35
343.75
358.20
361.80
365.40
-ve
OBC
248.35
240.40
238.25
236.10
250.15
255.00
259.90
-ve
PETRONET LNG
184.15
182.45
180.65
178.90
186.00
187.75
189.55
Neutral
POWER FINANCE
279.50
275.60
272.35
269.05
280.55
283.05
285.50
-ve
POWER GRID
143.65
141.95
141.10
140.25
144.05
145.10
146.15
-ve
POWER TRADING
93.85
92.15
91.40
90.65
94.05
95.00
96.00
PNB
171.40
169.35
166.45
164.90
175.15
178.00
179.60
RANBAXY
736.25
730.25
725.60
720.95
736.50
739.65
742.80
-ve
72.25
69.40
68.95
68.55
73.05
74.90
76.70
-ve
463.75
453.05
448.80
444.55
467.25
474.35
481.45
-ve
RCOM
REL. CAPITAL
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
-ve
Neutral
Page 15
SCRIP
CLOSE
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
TREND
RELIANCE INFRA.
469.80
457.15
453.45
449.75
474.20
482.75
491.25
-ve
RELIANCE
923.70
914.25
909.75
905.30
925.40
930.95
936.55
-ve
60.65
59.05
58.60
58.15
61.20
62.25
63.30
-ve
321.50
314.95
312.40
309.85
323.50
327.80
332.05
74.00
73.55
73.00
72.70
74.70
75.25
75.55
RELIANCE POWER
REC
SAIL
SESA GOA
207.80
204.35
201.90
199.40
208.90
211.15
213.45
SHRIRAM TRANS.
1157.15
1159.70
1147.80
1135.85
1183.55
1194.50
1205.45
SIEMENS
-ve
Neutral
-ve
+ve
1094.00
1081.35
1072.55
1063.75
1094.05
1100.40
1106.75
SBI
290.80
289.55
287.40
284.65
293.85
296.00
298.75
Neutral
SUN PHARMA
959.55
955.45
951.75
945.55
962.90
966.65
972.80
Neutral
SUN TV
404.70
395.25
393.25
391.20
407.05
412.95
418.85
-ve
SYNDICATE BANK
113.85
111.20
110.15
109.05
114.45
116.05
117.65
-ve
TATA CHEMICALS
462.45
455.10
450.00
444.90
464.00
468.45
472.90
-ve
TATA MOTOR DVR
356.40
357.15
354.35
351.50
362.85
364.90
366.95
+ve
TATA MOTORS
589.20
579.85
575.20
570.60
590.30
595.50
600.75
-ve
83.30
80.05
78.90
77.75
84.45
86.65
88.80
-ve
TATA POWER
TATA GLOBAL BEV.
-ve
154.75
152.25
150.85
149.50
155.40
156.95
158.55
TCS
2552.40
2553.40
2535.20
2517.05
2589.75
2608.30
2626.90
+ve
-ve
TECH MAHINDRA
+ve
2867.75
2869.50
2855.50
2841.50
2897.45
2918.70
2939.90
TATA STEEL
379.25
373.95
370.85
367.80
381.30
385.00
388.70
-ve
TITAN IND.
417.80
410.15
405.90
401.65
419.40
424.05
428.70
-ve
-ve
UCO BANK
ULTRATECH CEMENT
UBI
68.40
66.70
66.20
65.65
69.05
70.20
71.40
3064.10
3033.45
3018.85
3004.30
3067.90
3085.10
3102.35
-ve
193.35
189.30
187.40
185.50
194.60
197.25
199.95
-ve
UNITED BREW.
953.45
917.15
909.70
902.25
956.00
975.45
994.90
-ve
UNITED PHOSPH.
417.95
413.05
407.45
401.85
419.25
422.35
425.40
-ve
UNITECH
VOLTAS
17.50
16.15
15.75
15.35
17.65
18.40
19.20
-ve
262.85
256.85
251.40
245.95
264.90
268.95
273.00
-ve
WIPRO
638.25
636.15
630.60
625.05
647.25
651.10
654.95
+ve
NSE YES BANK
807.85
808.75
800.50
792.25
825.25
832.80
840.40
+ve
ZEE
360.65
357.30
353.80
350.30
361.60
363.75
365.90
-ve
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 16
NOTES:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Please execute the recommendation within the levels provided in the report
Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report
Avoid entering into the recommendation in the first 5 min of trade
If the recommendation opens near the target levels due to gap up/gap down opening, then the recommendation
is considered not initiated
The recommendations are valid only for the day and should be squared off by the end of the day.
Only stocks in derivatives segment have been considered for daily trading.
Medium to long-term prospects of a stock does not have any bearing on the daily view.
Trading Portfolio allocation
• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical
research products.
• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment.
• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation.
• For example: The ‘Momentum Picks’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate
equal amount to each recommendation
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 17
Recommended Product wise Trading Portfolio allocation
Products
Allocations
Product wise
Max allocation
allocation
in 1 stock
Return Objective
Number of Calls
Frontline Stocks
Mid-cap stocks
Duration
Daily Calls
8%
2-3%
3-4 Stocks
0.50-1%
2-3%
Intraday
Short term Delivery
6%
3-5%
7-10 p.m
4-5%
7-10%
Opportunity based
Weekly Calls
8%
3-5%
1-2 Stocks
5-7%
7-10%
1 Week
Weekly Technical
8%
3-5%
1-2 Stocks
5-7%
7-10%
1 Week
Monthly Call
15%
5%
2-3 Stocks
7-10%
10-15%
1 Month
Monthly Technical
15%
2-4%
5-8 Stocks
7-10%
10-15%
1 Month
Techno Funda
15%
5-10%
1-2 Stocks
10% and above
15% and above
6 Months
Technical Breakout
15%
5-10%
1-2 Stocks
10% and above
15% and above
3-6 Months
Cash in Hand
10%
-
-
-
-
-
100%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 18
Candlesticks Glossary:
Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment
(trend) and, therefore, are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an
indication of change in market behaviour. More importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or
downtrend. The market falls, and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the
prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on
the next session’s open but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the
prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the
top end of the session’s range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during
declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real
body wraps around a white real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance
level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The
second session’s price opens over the prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it
closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the prior session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor
chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the
session's range and a very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the
trouble for prices overhead
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 19
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
[email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
[email protected]
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 20
Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately
reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a whollyowned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital
fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other
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