INSTITUTIONAL SECURITIES Tech Mahindra Good quarter; valuations to remain buoyant Q3FY15 result highlights 30 January 2015 BSE Sensex: 29183 Reported revenues grew by 2.7% qoq (CC terms 4.9%) to US$924m, including ~US$10m contribution from MES integration. IT Services and BPO revenues grew by 2.5% (~1.3% organic) and 4.9% respectively. Organic growth of 1.6% qoq was led by 6-7% qoq growth in Manufacturing and Retail verticals. EBIT margins expanded by ~30bp qoq to 17.7% as tailwinds from weaker INR, and higher utilization were partly offset by higher provisions (SG&A). Reported net profit of Rs8.05bn (including Rs285m contribution for H1FY15 from MES) was up by ~12% qoq, led by higher EBIT and lower taxes even as other income had a negative swing of Rs386m. Sector: IT Services Stock data CMP (Rs) 2,869 Mkt Cap (Rsbn/ US$bn) 688 / 11.1 Target Price (Rs) 3,320 Change in TP (%) Key positives: Healthy deal wins; good hiring. +3.8 Potential from CMP (%) +15.7 Earnings change (%) FY15E FY16E FY17E Bloomberg code Key negatives: Muted Telecom growth; weaker-than-expected margins. Impact on financials: We have cut our FY15E earnings by ~4% largely on account of non-operating items. However, FY16-17E EPS has been revised upwards by 25% as we incorporate PBT-accretive LCC/ SOFGEN acquisitions. We build in 19% USD revenue CAGR, -290bp EBIT margin and 20% INR EPS CAGR over FY14-17E. -4.1 +1.9 +4.7 TECHM IN 1-yr high/low (Rs) Valuations & view 2992/1676 6-mth avg. daily volumes (m) TechM reported healthy revenue growth in Q3 with traction in key non-telecom verticals like Manufacturing, Retail and BFSI even as Telecom took a breather (after several quarters of consistent delivery). Healthy deal-win momentum across industry verticals (two large deals and TCV of ~US$220m for incremental work in Q3) and focus on value-accretive acquisitions strengthen growth visibility. TechM has outperformed the CNX IT Index by ~47% over the past year and trades at 16.5x FY16E and ~14x FY17E EPS. Reiterate Outperformer, with a 12-month target price of Rs3,320 (16x FY17E EPS) as we see the earnings upgrade cycle continuing. 0.62 6-mth avg. daily traded value (Rsm/ US$m) 1526 / 24.64 Shares outstanding (m) Free float (%) Promoter holding (%) 240.0 63.3 36.7 Price performance – relative and absolute Tech Mahindra OUTPERFORMER Key financials (quarterly) (Rs m) Sensex 480 Net sales (US$ m) 3Q14 2Q15 3Q15 % ch qoq % ch yoy % var from est 0.3 791.0 899.9 924.3 2.7 16.9 380 Net sales 48,985 54,879 57,517 4.8 17.4 0.7 280 EBITDA 11,363 10,973 11,601 5.7 2.1 (3.0) 180 EBIT 9,967 9,548 10,160 6.4 1.9 (3.3) EBIT margin (%) PBT 20.3 9,274 17.4 10,083 17.7 10,312 27bp 2.3 (268bp) 11.2 (73bp) (11.7) 80 Jan-12 Oct-12 (%) Tech Mahindra BSE Sensex Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr 15.7 6.7 32.7 11.9 66.9 42.4 Income tax 2,530 2,807 2,512 (10.5) (0.7) (13.8) Adjusted net profit * 6,203 7,196 7,769 8.0 25.2 (11.1) Reported net profit 10,099 7,196 8,054 11.9 (20.2) Adj. EPS (Rs) 29.0 33.1 35.0 5.8 20.9 Note: *Adjustment for amortization of BT one-time payment, non-recurring gains/losses and treasury shares Hitesh Shah Abhishek Gupta [email protected] 91-22-6622 2565 [email protected] 91-22-6622 2661 (7.9) (12.0) For Private Circulation only. Important disclosures appear at the back of this report” SEBI Registration Nos.: INB23 12914 37, INF23 12914 37, INB01 12914 33, INF01 12914 33. RESULT NOTE INDIA RESEARCH Tech Mahindra – Q3FY15 result Snapshot of Q3FY15 results (Rs m) 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Comments Revenue (US$ m) 791.0 825.0 855.2 899.9 924.3 Mfg./ Retail grew 6-7% qoq organically Revenue 48,985 50,581 51,215 54,879 57,517 MES contributed ~US$10m (1.1% of growth) Cost of revenue 30,012 32,470 34,392 36,160 37,656 Cross currency headwind of 220bp Gross profit 18,973 18,111 16,823 18,719 19,861 38.7 35.8 32.8 34.1 34.5 Gross margin (%) Operating expenses IT Services revenues up 2.5% qoq BPO up 4.9% qoq 7,610 7,393 7,539 7,746 8,260 11,363 10,718 9,284 10,973 11,601 EBIT margin up ~30bp led by weaker INR, EBITDA margin (%) 23.2 21.2 18.1 20.0 20.2 utilization partly offset by higher provisions Dep. & amortization 1,396 1,429 1,492 1,425 1,441 EBIT 9,967 9,289 7,792 9,548 10,160 EBIT margin (%) Profit before tax 20.3 9,274 18.4 8,325 15.2 8,644 17.4 10,083 17.7 10,312 EBITDA Income tax expense 2,530 2,092 2,308 2,807 2,512 Income from operations 6,744 6,233 6,336 7,276 7,800 111 91 29 80 31 6,633 6,142 6,307 7,196 7,769 -430 -118 0 0 0 Adjusted net profit * 6,203 6,024 6,307 7,196 7,769 Reported net profit includes Rs285m from MES Reported net profit 10,099 6,142 6,307 7,196 8,054 for H1FY15 -basic 29.8 28.9 30.1 34.2 36.1 -diluted 29.0 28.0 29.0 33.1 35.0 43.5 26.4 27.0 30.7 33.7 Minority interest Net profit after minority interest Adj for BT one-time payment Forex loss of Rs356m (vs Rs459m in Q2) Reported tax rate of 24.4% including ~US$2m write-back Adj. EPS (Rs) Reported EPS (Rs) -basic -diluted 42.4 25.7 26.2 29.8 32.8 Source: Company; *Adjusted for amortization of BT one-time payment, other non-recurring loss/ gain, and treasury shares Key deal wins – TCV ~US$220m of incremental work; two large deals Telecom • A leading European communications company chose TechM to boost its customer’s service operations Manufacturing/ Hi-Tech • Engaged by a leading aerospace and defence company to develop flight test software. • A large European Automotive company chose TechM to provide end-to-end managed services for its applications and systems. Retail & CPG • Selected by a leading global consumer goods company in LatAm for managing its SAP IT service application helping bring in cost efficiencies • A leading ASEAN retail operator selected TechM for its customer loyalty management implementation project • Won a deal from a European FMCG major’s division, to provide application support and testing services globally BFSI • Selected by a leading South Asian capital market regulator in areas of design, development, implementation and support of their portal and ERP system.. Healthcare • A North American medical device maker selected TechM for its engineering development support (developing hospital and patient monitoring systems). Others • A major APAC airline selected TechM to manage its end-to-end Infrastructure services (complete Data Centre Operations, End-User Computing, and streamline operations while reducing costs) • Selected by a global leader in storage solutions for multi-year SAP application and maintenance support services. 2 | IDFC SECURITIES 30 January 2015 Tech Mahindra – Q3FY15 result Other highlights • Management announced a wage hike of average 7-8% for offshore employees and ~2.5% onsite effective 1st January 2015. This would potentially impact Q4FY15 operating margins by ~200bp. • MES merger received all approvals on 8th December 2014 (even though integration is effective from 1st April 2014) and in this regards ~4.2m shares were issued to MES shareholders during the quarter. • LCC deal is expected to be closed by mid-February 2015 while SOFGEN would possibly close by 1st week of March 2015. Both these deals would be dilutive at EBIT margin level in the near term but, accretive for profit before tax in first full year of consolidation. • IT delivery headcount increased by 1,417 to 67,592; BPO headcount up by 1,133 to 23,566. IT Services attrition inched up by 100bp qoq to 19%. • IT services utilization (incl. trainees) up ~100bp to 74%; utilization (excl. trainees) at 78% (vs 76% in Q2). • The company had a hedge cover of GBP108m (at an average INR/ GBP rate of Rs103.7) and US$1,583m (at an average INR/ USD rate of Rs65.2). • Cash and cash equivalents stood at Rs42.1bn, with gross debt of Rs642m as of December 2014. • Effective tax rate for Q3FY15 was 24.4% down from 27.8% in Q2 largely led by ~US$2m write back during the quarter. Adjusted tax rate was ~26% and management expects it to be in this range for the near term. Maintain Outperformer, with a target price of Rs3,320 We have cut our FY15E earnings by ~4% largely on account of non-operating items. However, FY16-17E EPS has been revised upwards by 2-5% as we incorporate PBT-accretive LCC/ SOFGEN acquisitions. We build in 19% USD revenue CAGR, -290bp EBIT margin and 20% INR EPS CAGR over FY14-17E. Earnings revision Year to 31-Mar FY15E FY16E FY17E Net income - Recurring (Rs m) - New 29,635 38,682 46,078 - Old 30,806 37,938 43,959 (3.8) 2.0 4.8 - New 135.0 174.4 207.7 - Old 140.7 171.1 198.3 (4.1) 1.9 4.7 Change (%) Recurring EPS - Fully diluted (Rs) Change (%) Source: IDFC Securities TechM reported healthy revenue growth in Q3 with traction in key non-telecom verticals like Manufacturing, Retail and BFSI even as Telecom took a breather (after several quarters of consistent delivery). Healthy deal-win momentum across industry verticals (two large deals and TCV of ~US$220m for incremental work in Q3) and focus on valueaccretive acquisitions strengthen growth visibility. TechM has outperformed the CNX IT Index by ~47% over the past year and trades at 16.5x FY16E and ~14x FY17E EPS. Reiterate Outperformer, with a 12-month target price of Rs3,320 (16x FY17E EPS) as we see the earnings upgrade cycle continuing. 3 | IDFC SECURITIES 30 January 2015 Tech Mahindra – Q3FY15 result Other key result tables Revenue mix (%) 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 QoQ (%) YoY (%) North America 47 45 47 49 49 2.1 21.1 Europe 31 31 31 31 31 3.4 18.7 Rest of World 22 25 22 20 20 3.2 5.2 Geography wise Vertical wise Telecom 49 51 51 52 51 0.5 21.9 Manufacturing 19 19 18 18 20 14.3 21.2 Technology, Media & Entertainment 9 9 9 8 7 (9.7) (6.3) 10 10 10 10 10 3.8 15.7 Retail, Transport & Logistics 7 6 6 6 6 6.0 8.4 Others 6 6 6 6 6 (0.7) 9.4 Onsite 52 53 54 55 55 2.7 25.3 Offshore Source: Company 48 47 46 45 45 2.3 11.0 QoQ (%) YoY (%) BFSI Delivery location wise (IT Business) Key HR and execution metrics 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Total headcount 87,399 89,441 92,729 95,309 98,009 2.8 12.1 - IT delivery 57,601 60,997 64,095 66,175 67,592 2.1 17.3 (34.7) - net add - BPO delivery - net add - Sales & Support 2,169 3,396 3,098 2,080 1,417 (31.9) 23,213 21,830 21,936 22,433 23,566 5.1 1.5 -12 -1,383 106 497 1,133 N.A N.A 6,585 6,614 6,698 6,701 6,851 2.2 4.0 Attrition (LTM) 15.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 19.0 100bp 400bp Utilization (incl. trainees) Source: Company 75.0 74.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 100bp (100bp) 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 QoQ YoY 605 629 632 649 674 25 69 > US$ 1m 239 239 242 245 254 9 15 > US$ 5m 75 75 80 86 88 2 13 > US$ 10m 47 52 51 50 51 1 4 > US$ 20m 25 27 29 30 32 2 7 > US$ 50m 11 11 11 12 13 1 2 Client metrics No. of active clients Client relationship size Client concentration (%) Top 5 37 36 37 40 37 (5.0) 16.9 Top 10 49 48 50 51 49 (1.3) 16.9 Top 20 61 61 62 Source: Company; * Client concentration is in percentages, rest all are absolute changes 63 61 (0.5) 16.9 4 | IDFC SECURITIES 30 January 2015 Tech Mahindra – Q3FY15 result Income statement Key ratios Year to 31 Mar (Rs m) Net sales FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E 143,320 188,313 227,773 298,071 350,905 22.5 31.4 21.0 30.9 112,689 146,477 184,263 30,631 41,836 43,510 % growth Operating expenses EBITDA % change Other income FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E EBITDA margin (%) 21.4 22.2 19.1 18.1 18.7 17.7 EBIT margin (%) 18.7 19.4 16.5 15.8 16.5 244,151 285,151 PAT margin (%) 13.5 13.5 13.0 13.0 13.1 53,921 65,754 RoE (%) 32.8 31.1 28.2 29.0 27.3 56.9 36.6 4.0 23.9 21.9 RoCE (%) 30.0 34.7 29.2 29.1 29.0 1,129 1,978 3,999 5,155 Gearing (x) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (922) (797) (160) - - Depreciation 3,896 5,221 5,866 6,775 7,720 Pre-tax profit 26,165 35,528 39,462 51,144 63,189 6,479 9,790 9,952 12,423 17,111 Profit after tax 19,686 Minorities Non-recurring items 25,738 (300) 29,510 (336) (1,600) 38,722 125 3,466 46,078 (40) - - - - Net profit after non-recurring items 17,786 % change 28,868 (0.9) 29,635 62.3 38,682 2.7 46,078 30.5 19.1 Valuations Year to 31 Mar FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Reported EPS (Rs) 83.6 135.1 135.0 174.4 207.7 Adj. EPS (Rs) 91.1 118.8 135.0 174.4 207.7 PE (x) 31.5 24.1 21.3 16.5 13.8 Price/ Book (x) 8.7 6.6 5.4 4.3 3.4 EV/ Net sales (x) 4.1 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.5 EV/ EBITDA (x) 19.1 13.8 13.1 10.4 8.1 6.0 5.1 4.0 3.1 2.4 EV/ CE (x) Balance sheet Client concentration As on 31 Mar (Rs m) FY13 FY14 FY15E Paid-up capital 2,316 2,335 2,335 FY16E FY17E 2,335 2,335 Reserves & surplus 66,219 89,485 113,409 145,602 184,412 Total shareholders' equity 69,879 93,258 117,057 149,290 188,100 Total current liabilities 41,220 45,415 67,193 86,441 101,762 8,526 524 (1,166) (2,666) (4,166) 33,169 36,867 Total debt Other non-current liabilities 18,480 20,199 28,248 Total liabilities 66,138 94,275 116,944 134,464 Total equity & liabilities 138,105 159,396 211,332 266,234 322,564 Net fixed assets 68,226 19,859 22,966 29,970 38,711 45,572 577 210 210 210 210 Investments Total current assets 89,634 105,419 148,100 Deferred tax assets Other non-current assets Working capital Total assets 190,745 237,572 3,477 3,830 3,830 3,830 3,830 24,558 26,971 29,223 32,738 35,379 48,414 60,004 80,907 104,305 135,810 138,105 159,396 211,332 266,234 322,564 Top5 Clients Year to 31 Mar (Rs m) FY16E FY17E Pre-tax profit 26,165 FY13 35,528 FY14 FY15E 39,462 51,144 63,189 Depreciation 3,896 5,221 5,866 6,775 7,720 (215) (11,886) (8,077) Chg in Working capital (5,114) (14,117) Total tax paid (6,479) Ext ord. Items & others (4,554) 5,185 8,049 4,921 3,698 Operating cash Inflow 13,914 22,027 43,209 38,532 49,419 (10,250) (9,790) (9,952) (8,914) (12,870) 75% 52% 51% 52% 50% 49% 51% 12% 12% 12% 13% 11% 12% 36% 37% 36% 37% 40% 37% 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 50% 25% 0% Shareholding pattern Public & Others 10.8% 13,113 30,339 23,016 34,838 Chg in investments (988) 14 0 - - (2,974) (8,002) (1,690) (1,500) (1,500) 7 19 - - - (1,248) (5,028) (5,710) (6,489) (7,268) Misc 4,726 (816) 0 0 0 Net chg in cash 3,187 (700) 22,939 15,027 26,070 Dividend (incl. tax) 5 | IDFC SECURITIES Foreign 39.0% Promoters 36.7% (15,516) (14,581) 3,664 Capital raised/(repaid) Non-Top10 clients (12,423) (17,111) Free cash flow (a+b) Debt raised/(repaid) Other Top10 clients 100% Cash flow statement Capital expenditure FY17E 2,121 Net interest Current tax Year to 31 Mar Nonpromoter corporate holding 2.0% Institutions 11.2% As of December 2014 30 January 2015 Tech Mahindra – Q3FY15 result Disclaimer This document has been prepared by IDFC Securities Ltd (IDFC SEC). 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Particulars Yes / No. Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by IDFC SEC Whether Research Analyst, IDFC SEC or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the Research report No. No Whether compensation has been received by IDFC SEC or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report No IDFC SEC or its affiliates have managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in the Research report Research Analyst, his associate, IDFC SEC or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve months No No Explanation of Ratings: 1. Outperformer 2. Neutral 3. Underperformer : : : More than 5% to Index Within 0-5% (upside or downside) to Index Less than 5% to Index Copyright in this document vests exclusively with IDFC Securities Ltd. 6 | IDFC SECURITIES 30 January 2015 Tech Mahindra – Q3FY15 result Annexure Associates of IDFC Securities Limited Sr. No. Name of Company Category Non Banking Finance Company, SEBI registered Merchant Banker, SEBI registered Debenture Trustee 1. IDFC Ltd. 2. IDFC Capital (USA) INC. Subsidiary 3. IDFC Capital (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Subsidiary Fund Manager 4. IDFC Securities Singapore Pte. Ltd. Subsidiary Dealing in Securities 5. IDFC Fund of Funds Limited Subsidiary Sponsor Investments 7 | IDFC SECURITIES Parent Nature of business Broker Dealer registered with FINRA 30 January 2015 Tech Mahindra – Q3FY15 result www.idfc.com Analyst Sector/Industry/Coverage E-mail Tel.+91-22-6622 2600 Anish Damania Shirish Rane Co-CEO - IDFC Securities, Head - Institutional Equities; Strategy Head of Research; Construction, Power [email protected] [email protected] Prakash Joshi Oil & Gas, Metals, Mining [email protected] 91-22-662 22564 Nitin Agarwal Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, Agri-inputs [email protected] 91-22-662 22568 91-22-6622 2522 91-22-662 22575 Hitesh Shah IT Services & Telecom [email protected] 91-22-662 22565 Manish Chowdhary Financials [email protected] 91-22-662 22563 Bhoomika Nair Engineering, Cement, Power Equipment, Logistics [email protected] 91-22-662 22561 Ashish Shah Construction, Power [email protected] 91-22-662 22560 Deepak Jain Vijayaraghavan G Automobiles, Auto ancillaries Midcaps [email protected] [email protected] 91-22-662 22562 91-22-662 22690 Rohit Dokania Media & Entertainment [email protected] 91-22-662 22567 Abhishek Gupta Telecom, IT services [email protected] 91-22-662 22661 Mohit Kumar, CFA Construction, Power [email protected] 91-22-662 22573 Param Desai Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, Agri-inputs [email protected] 91-22-662 22579 Sameer Narang Strategy, Economy [email protected] 91-22-662 22566 Probal Sen Oil & Gas [email protected] 91-22-662 22569 Saumil Mehta Metals, Mining [email protected] 91-22-662 22578 Harit Kapoor FMCG, Retail, Alcoholic Beverages [email protected] 91-22-662 22649 Sameer Bhise Financials [email protected] 91-22-662 22635 Abhishek Ghosh Engineering, Cement, Power Equipment, Logistics [email protected] 91-22-662 22658 Saksham Kaushal Automobiles, Auto ancillaries [email protected] 91-22-662 22529 Dharmendra Sahu Database Analyst [email protected] 91-22-662 22580 Equity Sales/Dealing Designation E-mail Ashish Kalra Managing Director, Sales [email protected] Tel.+91-22-6622 2500 91-22-6622 2525 Rajesh Makharia Director, Sales [email protected] 91-22-6622 2528 Palak Shah SVP, Sales [email protected] 91-22-6622 2696 Varun Saboo VP, Sales [email protected] 91-22-6622 2558 Arati Mishra VP, Sales [email protected] 91-22-6622 2597 Hemal Ghia VP, Sales [email protected] 91-22-6622 2533 Tanvi Dixit AVP, Sales [email protected] 91-22-6622 2595 Nirav Bhatt AVP, Sales [email protected] 91-22-6622 2681 Chandan Asrani Manager, Sales [email protected] 91-22-6622 2540 Sneha Baxi Manager, Sales [email protected] 91-22-6622 2537 Suryakant Bhatt Director & Head - Sales trading [email protected] 91-22-6622 2693 Mukesh Chaturvedi Director, Sales trading [email protected] 91-22-6622 2512 Viren Sompura SVP, Sales trading [email protected] 91-22-6622 2527 Rajashekhar Hiremath SVP, Sales trading [email protected] 91-22-6622 2516 Alok Shyamsukha VP, Sales trading [email protected] 91-22-6622 2523 Suketu Parekh VP, Sales trading [email protected] 91-22-6622 2674 IDFC Securities Naman Chambers, C-32, 7th floor, G- Block, Bandra-Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai 400 051 INDIA IDFC Capital (USA) Inc, Regus Business Centre 600 Third Avenue, 2nd Floor, New York,10016 Tel: +91 22 6622 2600 Tel: +1 646 571 2303 Our research is also available on Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters For any assistance in access, please contact [email protected] 8 | IDFC SECURITIES 30 January 2015
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