1. Art and Diseño

INSTITUTIONAL SECURITIES
Ranbaxy
Lower US sales and higher tax provision hurt PAT
OUTPERFORMER
28 January 2015
Q3FY15 result highlights
BSE Sensex: 29559
™
Consolidated revenues declined by 20% qoq and 10% yoy to Rs26.2bn (est.,
Rs32bn) due to lower US sales (US$136m, vs. estimate of US$225m). We
believe it is largely due to sharply lower Diovan exclusivity sales in the
quarter. Also, the India business also grew by just 2% yoy.
™
EBITDA (adjusted for forex) was down by 6% yoy to Rs2.5bn (est., Rs8.6bn), on
account of lower exclusivity income.
™
Ranbaxy made a tax provision of Rs8.2bn as it provided for MAT tax credit
after an FDA decision to cancel the FTF status of Nexium.
™
Net forex loss was Rs2.2bn. The company reported a loss of Rs10.3bn, which is
sharply lower than our estimate.
Sector: Pharmaceuticals
Stock data
CMP (Rs)
700
297 / 4.8
Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDbn)
Target Price (Rs)
787
Change in TP (%)
+12
Potential from CMP (%)
+12
Key positives: QoQ reduction in SG&A cost.
Earnings change (%)
FY16E
FY17E
-14.4
-20.5
Bloomberg code
RBXY IN
1-yr high/low (Rs)
725/308
6-mth avg. daily volumes (m)
1.25
6-mth avg. daily traded value
(Rsm/US$m)
778.7 / 12.67
Shares outstanding (m)
Free float (%)
Promoter holding (%)
425.0
36.6
63.4
Price performance – relative and absolute
Ranbaxy Laboratories
Key negatives: Weak revenue across geographies; forex loss; higher tax provision.
Impact on financials: We have adjusted FY15-17E earnings estimates to account
for lower base business profitability and cancellation of Ranbaxy’s 180-day
exclusivity of Nexium and Valcyte.
Valuations & view
According to the proposed scheme of arrangement in the Ranbaxy-Sun merger,
Ranbaxy shareholders will get 0.8x shares of Sun for every share of Ranbaxy. So,
assuming successful closure of the merger, Ranbaxy’s share price would broadly
track Sun’s till the merger is completed. In line with our target price of Rs984 for
Sun, our adjusted target price for Ranbaxy is Rs787. Maintain Outperformer. Any
regulatory hurdle to the completion of the merger is a key risk to our call.
Key financials (quarterly)
(Rs m)
Sensex
Q3FY14
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
% ch qoq
% ch yoy
% var from est
28,940
32,605
26,188
(19.7)
(9.5)
(18.5)
2,602
8,790
2,455
(72.1)
(5.6)
(71.5)
9.0
827
27.0
(1,412)
9.4
(2,137)
(17.6)
(725.5)
0.4
na
(65)
185
180
Net sales
145
EBITDA
110
OPM (%)
Other inc.
75
40
Jan-12
Oct-12
(%)
Jul-13
3-mth
Apr-14
6-mth
Jan-15
1-yr
Interest
544
726
705
(2.9)
29.6
(6.1)
Dep. & Amort.
915
1,019
968
(5.0)
5.8
(7.8)
PBT
1,971
5,633
(1,354)
na
na
na
PAT
985
4,778
(10,297)
na
na
na
(1,589)
4,778
(10,297)
na
na
na
EPS (Rs)
2.3
11.3
(24.5)
Note: Change its financial year from December (CY) to March (FY)
na
na
na
Reported PAT
Ranbaxy Laboratories 10.4
BSE Sensex
10.0
18.5
13.7
120.0
42.9
Nitin Agarwal
Param Desai
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2568
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2579
For Private Circulation only.
Important disclosures appear at the back of this report”
SEBI Registration Nos.: INB23 12914 37, INF23 12914 37, INB01 12914 33, INF01 12914 33.
RESULT NOTE
INDIA RESEARCH
Ranbaxy Labs – Q3FY15 result
Consolidated quarterly results (detailed)
(Rs m)
Net sales
Q4CY13
Q5CY13
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
28,940
24,668
24,263
32,605
Q3FY15
FY14
FY15E
26,188 132,685 109,460
Comments
Lower revenues on account of
lower Diovan sales
Expenses
Cost of sales
10,459
9,249
8,704
10,071
10,469
48,283
39,490
SG&A expenses
15,879
13,911
13,300
13,745
13,264
73,825
53,789
Total expenses
26,338
23,161
22,003
23,815
23,733 122,107
93,279
EBITDA
2,602
1,508
2,259
8,790
2,455
10,578
16,182
OPM (%)
9.0
6.1
9.3
27.0
9.4
8.0
14.8
Other income
827
1,334
21
(1,412)
(2,137)
(5,134)
(3,363)
Interest
544
689
753
726
705
2,735
2,900
Depreciation
915
953
1,074
1,019
968
4,762
4,061
1,971
1,200
453
5,633
(1,354)
(2,053)
5,858
981
1,099
(56)
851
8,882
3,314
9,977
PBT
Current tax
Up 400bp yoy
Below estimates
Our estimate, 27%
Includes forex loss of Rs2.2bn
In line
Tax provision of Rs8.2bn as it
provided for MAT tax credit
Tax rate (%)
Minority interest
PAT
Extraordinary expenses
Reported PAT
49.8
5
91.6
(66)
(12.3)
(9)
15.1
4
(655.9)
61
(161.4)
120
170.3
100
985
167
518
4,778
(10,297)
(5,488)
(4,219)
2,574
903
2,377
-
-
5,364
2,377
(1,589)
(737)
(1,859)
4,778
(10,297) (10,853)
(6,596)
Below estimates
% chg yoy
Sales
EBITDA
Other income
Depreciation
6.7
(0.2)
(7.9)
16.4
(9.5)
6.6
221.4
(20.9)
(13.9)
353.6
(5.6)
(45.0)
(17.5)
53.0
(138.8)
21.5
(100.4)
(57.5)
(358.4)
7,054.3
(34.5)
13.7
19.6
40.8
(23.6)
5.8
48.7
(14.7)
PBT
(173.9)
(28.2)
(112.3)
(275.0)
(168.7)
(114.5)
(385.3)
PAT
(132.1)
(86.8)
(112.8)
(224.2)
na
(150.2)
(23.1)
(67.7)
(158.5)
(64.5)
(205.2)
na
(219.7)
(39.2)
421.0
421.0
421.0
421.0
421.0
421.0
421.0
EPS
2.3
Source: Company, IDFC Securities Research
Note: * 15 months
0.4
1.2
11.3
na
(13.0)
(10.0)
Reported PAT
EPS
Equity
Other key highlights
™
US business revenues of US$136m (down 39% qoq and 7% yoy) were sharply below our estimate of US$2224m.
Diovan sales were sharply lower than our estimates. We believe that the company booked over US$20m of sales
from Diovan compared with our estimate of US$110m. Sales would have also been hit by stoppage of
formulation supplies from Ipca (Ranbaxy was Ipca’s major marketing partner in the US).
o
Ranbaxy secured approval to launch gDiovan (~US$2bn sales) on 26 June 2014 and launched the product in
the first week of July with a 180-day exclusivity. We believe aggressive channel filling in the first month of
exclusivity and lesser price erosion had resulted in sharply higher sales for Q2FY15. We had estimated
~US$110m Diovan sales during Q3FY15, in line with the management guidance that there was limited
channel inventory of gDiovan as of 30 Sept 2014, which implied continued strong sales even in the Dec’14
quarter; Ranbaxy’s FTF exclusivity ended in Jan 2015. However, it seems that Ranbaxy had probably
2 | IDFC SECURITIES
28 January 2015
Ranbaxy Labs – Q3FY15 result
accounted for significant channel inventory during Q2FY15 and/ or faced sharper price discounts, which led
to the significant miss on Diovan estimates.
o
In Q4CY12, Ranbaxy launched Absorica, its branded CIP-Isotretenoin product, which has begun to steadily
scale up. The company indicated that the drug has been received well by doctors, but there has been a
marginal qoq decline in market share to 19.2% Rx (~20% in Q2FY15). The management had indicated that
generic Isotret is ~US$400m market with the premium pricing associated with Absorica further expanding
the market. At the current run rate, Absorica should become at least a US$100m product for Ranbaxy.
o
The FDA recently cancelled Ranbaxy’s FTF status on Nexium and has given approval to Teva for generic
launch. We had assumed profit of ~Rs20bn for Ranbaxy during the exclusivity period. The FDA had earlier
also cancelled Ranbaxy’s Valcyte exclusivity.
™
India revenues grew by a mere 2% yoy to Rs5.9bn, vs. our estimate of Rs6.4bn, on account of sharply lower
consumer business (declined ~30% yoy). The prescription business grew by 11%, vs. our estimate of 10% growth.
™
Non-US export sales were hit by a sharp currency depreciation against the INR across markets.
™
Among the key EU markets, Russia declined by 39% yoy in INR terms and Romania declined by 7% yoy. Overall,
the East EU block declined by 22% yoy in INR terms, with the recent crisis in Ukraine also impacting growth.
™
Sales in APAC (+7% yoy) and Latam (-18% yoy) were hit by weaker currency, but the company continued to
book relatively strong gains in constant-currency terms. Africa sales also declined by 9%, broadly in line with our
estimates.
™
Overall, EBITDA margins (adjusted for forex) came in at 9.4% (down 1760bp qoq), vs. our estimate of 26.8% on
account of lower Diovan sales. EBITDA margins were aided by 2% qoq decline in SG&A cost, which indicates
that some of Ranbaxy’s efforts towards controlling costs have begun to yield results.
™
Cumulative forex loss for the quarter stood at Rs2.2bn, vs. a loss of Rs1.6bn in Q2FY15. The forex loss comprised
of: a) Rs153m loss on foreign currency derivatives, and b) Rs2.1bn translation loss (including interest rate swaps).
™
Outstanding forex derivatives as of end-Q3FY15 were ~US$275m (sharply down qoq) with maturities of
~US$33m/ month. The company indicated that the pace of expiration will decrease. Total net debt increased qoq
to US$762m vs. US$739m as of Sept-2014.
™
During the quarter, the company made a one-time tax provision of Rs8.2bn as it provided for MAT tax credit
after a recent FDA decision to cancel the FTF status of Nexium. Presumably, the company would have planned to
set-off these MAT tax credits against Nexium FTF profits. The company stays eligible for utilizing this MAT
credit against future profits as permitted by accounting rules. We believe this MAT credit may enable Sun
Pharma to lower its consolidated tax liability after the consummation of the merger.
™
Impending merger with Sun: The company is awaiting two approvals – US FTC and Punjab & Haryana high
court approval (next hearing is on 2 February 2015). The management remains confident of successfully closing
the merger with Sun Pharma.
3 | IDFC SECURITIES
28 January 2015
Ranbaxy Labs – Q3FY15 result
Income statement
Key ratios
Year to 31 Dec (Rs m)
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
124,437 132,685 109,460
127,719
EBITDA margin (%)
15.4
8.0
14.8
11.8
14.2
4.6
11.5
EBIT margin (%)
12.9
4.4
11.1
8.2
10.8
105,218 122,107
PAT margin (%)
8.8
(4.1)
93,279
100,946
109,554
19,218
10,578
16,182
13,551
18,165
% change
53.0
(16.3)
34.0
RoCE (%)
14.1
5.2
13.1
11.2
16.3
1,828
700
800
800
Gearing (x)
0.1
1.4
1.8
1.4
1.1
(1,796)
(2,735)
(2,900)
(2,800)
(2,700)
3,202
4,762
4,061
4,200
4,400
(2,053)
5,858
7,351
11,865
2,939
3,314
9,977
1,470
2,373
Current tax
11,209
Minorities
(5,368)
(282)
(1,860)
(4,119)
(120)
(5,364)
5,881
(100)
(100)
(2,377)
-
9,492
(100)
-
Net profit after
non-recurring items
9,067 (10,853) (6,596)
% change
n/a
(219.7)
n/a
5,781
9,392
n/a
62.5
Balance sheet
26.0 (13.0) (10.0)
13.7
22.3
PE (x)
27.0
n/a
n/a
51.0
31.4
Price/ Book (x)
7.1
8.7
11.3
9.7
7.6
EV/ Net sales (x)
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.0
2.6
EV/ EBITDA (x)
15.5
32.5
21.1
25.1
18.5
2.4
3.4
4.1
4.1
3.9
22.3
38,729
30,914
22,928
27,320
35,322
Total shareholders' equity
41,733
33,889
26,003
30,494
38,597
Total current liabilities
41,045
37,678
49,685
51,477
55,593
Total debt
49,013
63,950
53,950
48,950
43,950
(357)
(633)
(633)
(633)
(633)
32,729
4,260
4,260
4,260
4,260
Other non-current liabilities
Total liabilities
122,431 105,256 107,263 104,054 103,171
Total equity & liabilities
164,163 139,144 133,266 134,549 141,767
Net fixed assets
52,156
53,839
54,278
54,578
54,678
112,008
85,306
78,988
79,971
87,090
70,963
47,628
29,303
28,494
31,497
Working capital
US - base business
India
West EU
RoW
250
200
150
100
50
0
Q3FY15
Reserves & surplus
2,117
Q2FY15
2,117
Q1FY15
2,117
Q5CY13
2,117
Deferred tax liabilities
FY17E
Q4CY13
2,115
164,163 139,144 133,266 134,549 141,767
Shareholding pattern
Cash flow statement
CY12
FY14 FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
11,865
Pre-tax profit
14,148
(2,053)
5,858
7,351
Depreciation
3,202
4,762
4,061
4,200
4,400
Chg in Working capital
(1,555)
(7,241)
10,213
(2,410)
(4,592)
Total tax paid
(2,939)
(3,314)
(9,977)
(1,470)
(2,373)
101 (33,833) (2,377)
-
-
7,777
7,671
9,300
(6,445)
(4,500)
(4,500)
(4,500)
8,172 (48,125)
3,277
3,171
4,800
Operating cash Inflow
12,957 (41,680)
Capital expenditure
(4,786)
192
4,106
Capital raised/(repaid)
Net chg in cash
13.7
Adj. EPS (Rs)
Q3CY13
Paid-up capital
Misc
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
21.5 (25.8) (15.7)
Q2CY13
FY14 FY15E FY16E
Dividend (incl. tax)
CY12
Reported EPS (Rs)
Q1CY13
CY12
Debt raised/(repaid)
Year to 31 Dec
Revenue trend across key markets
As on 31 Dec (Rs m)
Chg in investments
Valuations
EV/ CE (x)
Note* :15 Months
Free cash flow (a+b)
27.2
(45.0)
14,148
Ext ord. Items & others
7.4
20.5
6.8
Pre-tax profit
Non-recurring items
5.0
30.7 (14.5) (14.1)
2,732
Depreciation
Profit after tax
(3.9)
RoE (%)
Q4CY12
Net interest
Year to 31 Dec (Rs m)
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
114,497
Other income
Total assets
CY12
(17.5)
20.5
EBITDA
Total current assets
Year to 31 Dec
6.6
% growth
Operating expenses
FY14*
Q3CY12
Net sales
CY12
-
-
-
14,937 (10,000)
68
(5,000)
(5,000)
5
2
-
-
-
(1,389)
(1,389)
(1,389)
(1,389)
(1,389)
4,283
3,999
-
(0)
-
15,368 (30,508) (8,112)
(3,218)
(1,590)
4 | IDFC SECURITIES
Public &
Others
10.0%
Foreign
15.0%
Institutions
8.4%
Promoters
63.4%
Nonpromoter
corporate
holding
3.3%
As of September 2014
28 January 2015
Ranbaxy Labs – Q3FY15 result
Disclaimer
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no material disciplinary actions taken against IDFC SEC. Details of associates of IDFC SEC are attached as annexure.
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The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on
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and employees (“IDFC SEC and affiliates”) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons
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Additional Disclosures of interest:
Unless specifically mentioned in Point No. 9 below:
1. The Research Analyst(s), IDFC Sec, Associate of Analyst or his relative does not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in this report.
2. The Research Analyst, IDFC SEC or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the company
(ies) covered in this report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report.
3. The Research Analyst, his associate, his relative and IDFC SEC do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report.
4. The Research Analyst, IDFC SEC and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other
products or services from the company(ies) covered in this report, in the past twelve months.
5. The Research Analyst, IDFC SEC or its associates have not managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months, a private or public offering of securities for the
company (ies) covered in this report.
6. IDFC SEC or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party, in connection with the
research report.
7. The Research Analyst has not served as an Officer, Director or employee of the company (ies) covered in the Research report.
8. The Research Analyst and IDFC SEC has not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in the Research report.
9. Details IDFC SEC , Research Analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in the Research report:
Sr. No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Particulars
Yes / No.
Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for investment
banking transaction by IDFC SEC
Whether Research Analyst, IDFC SEC or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of the
company(ies) covered in the Research report
No.
No
Whether compensation has been received by IDFC SEC or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report
No
IDFC SEC or its affiliates have managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the
company(ies) covered in the Research report
Research Analyst, his associate, IDFC SEC or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or
brokerage services or for any other products or services from the the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve months
No
No
Explanation of Ratings:
1. Outperformer
2. Neutral
3. Underperformer
:
:
:
More than 5% to Index
Within 0-5% (upside or downside) to Index
Less than 5% to Index
Copyright in this document vests exclusively with IDFC Securities Ltd.
5 | IDFC SECURITIES
28 January 2015
Ranbaxy Labs – Q3FY15 result
Annexure
Associates of IDFC Securities Limited
Sr.
No.
Name of Company
Category
Non Banking Finance Company,
SEBI registered Merchant Banker, SEBI registered
Debenture Trustee
1.
IDFC Ltd.
2.
IDFC Capital (USA) INC.
Subsidiary
3.
IDFC Capital (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
Subsidiary
Fund Manager
4.
IDFC Securities Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Subsidiary
Dealing in Securities
5.
IDFC Fund of Funds Limited
Subsidiary
Sponsor Investments
6 | IDFC SECURITIES
Parent
Nature of business
Broker Dealer registered with FINRA
28 January 2015
Ranbaxy Labs – Q3FY15 result
www.idfc.com
Analyst
Sector/Industry/Coverage
E-mail
Tel.+91-22-6622 2600
Anish Damania
Shirish Rane
Co-CEO - IDFC Securities, Head - Institutional Equities; Strategy
Head of Research; Construction, Power
[email protected]
[email protected]
Prakash Joshi
Oil & Gas, Metals, Mining
[email protected]
91-22-662 22564
Nitin Agarwal
Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, Agri-inputs
[email protected]
91-22-662 22568
91-22-6622 2522
91-22-662 22575
Hitesh Shah
IT Services & Telecom
[email protected]
91-22-662 22565
Manish Chowdhary
Financials
[email protected]
91-22-662 22563
Bhoomika Nair
Engineering, Cement, Power Equipment, Logistics
[email protected]
91-22-662 22561
Ashish Shah
Construction, Power
[email protected]
91-22-662 22560
Deepak Jain
Vijayaraghavan G
Automobiles, Auto ancillaries
Midcaps
[email protected]
[email protected]
91-22-662 22562
91-22-662 22690
Rohit Dokania
Media & Entertainment
[email protected]
91-22-662 22567
Abhishek Gupta
Telecom, IT services
[email protected]
91-22-662 22661
Mohit Kumar, CFA
Construction, Power
[email protected]
91-22-662 22573
Param Desai
Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, Agri-inputs
[email protected]
91-22-662 22579
Sameer Narang
Strategy, Economy
[email protected]
91-22-662 22566
Probal Sen
Oil & Gas
[email protected]
91-22-662 22569
Saumil Mehta
Metals, Mining
[email protected]
91-22-662 22578
Harit Kapoor
FMCG, Retail, Alcoholic Beverages
[email protected]
91-22-662 22649
Sameer Bhise
Financials
[email protected]
91-22-662 22635
Abhishek Ghosh
Engineering, Cement, Power Equipment, Logistics
[email protected]
91-22-662 22658
Saksham Kaushal
Automobiles, Auto ancillaries
[email protected]
91-22-662 22529
Dharmendra Sahu
Database Analyst
[email protected]
91-22-662 22580
Equity Sales/Dealing
Designation
E-mail
Ashish Kalra
Managing Director, Sales
[email protected]
Tel.+91-22-6622 2500
91-22-6622 2525
Rajesh Makharia
Director, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2528
Palak Shah
SVP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2696
Varun Saboo
VP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2558
Arati Mishra
VP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2597
Hemal Ghia
VP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2533
Tanvi Dixit
AVP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2595
Nirav Bhatt
AVP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2681
Chandan Asrani
Manager, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2540
Sneha Baxi
Manager, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2537
Suryakant Bhatt
Director & Head - Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2693
Mukesh Chaturvedi
Director, Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2512
Viren Sompura
SVP, Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2527
Rajashekhar Hiremath
SVP, Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2516
Alok Shyamsukha
VP, Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2523
Suketu Parekh
VP, Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2674
IDFC Securities
Naman Chambers, C-32, 7th floor,
G- Block, Bandra-Kurla Complex,
Bandra (East), Mumbai 400 051
INDIA
IDFC Capital (USA) Inc,
Regus Business Centre
600 Third Avenue,
2nd Floor,
New York,10016
Tel: +91 22 6622 2600
Tel: +1 646 571 2303
Our research is also available on Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters
7 | IDFC SECURITIES
For any assistance in access, please contact [email protected]
28 January 2015