Mexico: Highlights MEXICO USA TOTAL POPULATION: 112.3 MILLIONS1 309.3 MILLIONS GDP: USD $1,039 MILLON 2 USD $14,582 MILLION2 8TH PLACE IN NATURAL GAS WORLD CONSUMPTION 3,029 BCF 3 13 PLACE IN NATURAL GAS WORLD PRODUCTION 2,051 BCF 3 TH 35TH PLACE IN NATURAL GAS WORLD PROVED RESERVES 12.3 TCF 3 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FROM FOSSIL FUELS - NATURAL GAS (2012)4 RUSSIAN COUNTRY USA FEDERATION JAPAN IRAN MEXICO ITALY EGYPT SAUDI ARABIA TWH 1265 525 397 170 151 129 125 121 THAILAND KOREA 112 117 REST OF THE WORLD WORLD 1988 5100 Source: INEGI. Census of Population and Housing, 2010 Basic Questionnaire. World Bank. 3 Source: Bp Statistical Review of World Energy June 2015. http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf 4. Source: Iea.org, Key World Energy Statistics 2014. 1 2 Source: Natural gas consumption by sector Consumption Distribution By Sector (August 2015) COMMERCIALS 352 SELF-GENERATION 141 3% 7% Pemex Exploración y Producción ELECTRICITY 1,410 26% 40% 7% 17% DISTRIBUTORS 388 SOURCE: BDI, SEPT 2015 INDUSTRIAL 894 PEMEX 2,159 1,262 Pemex Refinación 390 Pemex Gas y Petroquímica Básica 187 Pemex Petroquímica 320 Industrial demand of natural gas & manufacturing GDP growth • In the last decade , the growth of natural gas consumption in the industrial sector has shown an annual average growth of 5.4 percent, well above the 1.9 percent rate that obtained the manufacturing GDP figure the same period Industrial Demand (MMcfpd) Manufacturing GDP (Billion Pesos 2008) 16.38 15.50 8.5 8.42 4.5 2006 2.57 1.0 2007 10.16 7.11 4.6 4.59 4.1 3.7 1.0 -1.0 2008 -1.30 4.98 2009 2010 -8.4 -11.08 2011 2012 2013 2014 1.8 2015 Estimate trends for mexican industrial demand of natural gas 3,000 2,500 MMcfpd 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Industrial 2013 1,240 2014 1,366 2015 1,590 Source: SENER “Prospectiva de gas natural y gas LP 2014-2028” 2016 1,713 2017 1,804 2018 1,910 2019 1,973 2020 2,033 2021 2,100 2022 2,166 2023 2,234 2024 2,304 2025 2,383 2026 2,462 2027 2,546 2028 2,630 Natural gas forecast demand in Mexico MMCFPD 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Pemex producAon Source: SENER “Prospectiva de gas natural y gas LP 2014-2028” 2021 2022 Imports -‐ exports 2023 2024 Total Demand 2025 2026 2027 2028 Connecting Mexico with better markets NGPL REX USA Sásabe O TETC Tennesse zone 4-300 Leg San Isidro Samalayuca Puerto Libertad Henry Hub El Encino Guaymas Agua Dulce Colombia THE MEXICAN PIPELINE Camargo El Oro Topolobampo La Laguna Durango Mazatlán EXPANSIONS ARE GIVING THE Escobedo Los Ramones POSSIBILITY TO ACCESS IN CHEAPER MARKETS IN THE U.S. Zacatecas Altamira V. Reyes San Luis Potosí Naranjos Aguascalientes Tamazunchale Tuxpan Guadalajara Tula Apaseo el Alto NaAvitas Cempoala Huexca Lázaro Cárdenas JálApan Nuevo Pemex Ciudad Pemex Acapulco Salina Cruz Tapachula Current Interconections to the Mexican Border Firm Capacity El PasoNaco El PasoWilcox North Baja Interruptible capacity OneOk/OkTex Kinder Morgan Texas Net Mex Pipeline El Paso Bajanorte Kinder Morgan Border Naco Enterprise Tetco Cd. Juárez Tarahumara Rosarito Camargo GDCH Hermosillo Chihuahua Net Mexico Pipeline (Texas) Firm Capacity MMBtu 1,000,000 Kinder Morgan Border (Texas) 230,000 Kinder Morgan Texas (Texas) 525,000 Tennessee Gas Pipeline (Texas) 243,000 El Paso Natural Gas (Arizona) 10,661 El Paso Natural Gas (Texas) 54,790 Argüelles Reynosa Kinder Morgan GN México Monterrey Transport system Tennessee Río Bravo Mier Samalayuca Tennessee Reynosa GDN GDR Est. Nº19 Río Bravo Los Ramones Gasoductos de Tamaulipas San Fernando LNG Related market prices HYDROCARBONS* CRUDE OIL (WTI, CUSHING OKLAHOMA NYMEX) HEATING OIL (DIESEL, NYMEX NEW YORK HARBOR) PROPANE (MONT BELVIEU, TX.) NATURAL GAS (HENRY HUB, NYMEX) FUEL OIL (HIGH SULFUR FUEL OIL, NYMEX) GASOLINE (NYMEX) ORIGINAL PRICES $46.14 USD/BARRIL $1.5 USD/GAL $43.8USD/GALÓN $2.5 USD/MMBTU $212 USD/GAL $1.27 USD/GAL EQUIVALENT PRICES $7.9 USD/MMBTU $11 USD/MMBTU $4.8 USD/MMBTU $2.5 USD/MMBTU $5.4 USD/MMBTU $10.1 USD/MMBTU USD/MMBtu 24.8 24 International prices Mexico prices 11 7.9 10.1 7.9 7.5 5.4 4.8 2.5 Prices of Natural Gas Crude Oil Information as of Oct 19, 2015 *Reference Prices HeaAng Oil Propane Natural gas Fuel oil Elaborated by Pemex Gas y Petroquímica Básica using Thomson Reuters prices. Gasoline Natural gas international prices Prices as October 14th 2015 (USD/MMBtu) $6.04/6.02 $ 2.52/2.52 Nymex Henry Hub Dutch TTF $6.23/6.06 $2.57/2.58 UK NBP So Cal $6.64/6.68 Italian PSV EUROPA $6.45/6.40 $6.65/6.60 Japón China ASIA $ 5.37/3.50 Algonquin $2.45/2.46 $6.06/6.04 Germany EGT Reynosa $6.65/6.60 $7.16/7.16 Perú * Prices in green are from a previous week Source: Elaborated by Pemex Gas y Petroquímica Básica using Platts International Gas Reports. India $6.65/6.60 Corea del Sur Net exports from us to Mexico (2014-2015) PGPB only NET EXPORTS 2014-2015 (MMBTU/D) 2014 2015 1. WESTTEXAS 299,339 45,940 2. SOUTH TEXAS 979,800 1,227,949 WEST TEXAS 2014 WEST TEXAS, AZ. CALIF. 2015 MMBTU/D SOUTH TEXAS TRANSPORTATION SOUTH TEXAS (MMBTU/D) 2014 2015 TENNESSEE (1999) 215,398 67,652 K.M. BORDER (2000) 216,192 173,816 SAMALAYUCA 89,718 0 CHIHUAHUA-CDJ 117,965 38,796 K.M. TEXAS (2003) 422,316 452,441 NACO 34,801 7,144 TENNESSEE RB (2003) 73,768 0 NORTE II 56,855 0 TETCO (~ 1950) 41,818 2,712 0 0 NET (2014) 10,308 531,328 299,339 45,940 979,800 1,227,949 NORTH BAJA TOTAL: Source: BDI, Sept 2015. TOTAL: Net exports from US to Mexico (2014 - 2015) PGPB only MMBTu/day 2015 2014 1,422,843 1,324,219 1,318,019 1,285,747 1,286,183 1,208,740 1,139,254 1,108,041 1,168,491 1,368,500 1,488,615 1,486,642 1,447,268 1,402,086 1,424,591 1,380,998 1,307,756 1,270,997 1,051,378 1,133,078 1,011,832 NET AVERAGE EXPORTS 2014 – 2015 (MMBTU/D) Ene Jan * Jan-Sep 2015 Feb Mar Abr Apr 2014 2015* 1,279,139 1,273,889 May Jun Jul Ago Aug Sep Oct Nov 2014 2015 Dic Dec Source: BDI 2015 September Natural gas transport infrastructure 2015 5,825 MILES OF NATURAL GAS PIPELINES1 i i LNG Ensenada Tucson i Sásabe 15 COMPRESSION STATIONS: - 402,115 HP - 265,725 HP: PEMEX GAS - 136,390 HP: PRIVATES i i i Gloria a Dios Naco El Sueco 5,0122 MMCFPD TRANSPORT CAPACITY IN THE NGS (NATIONAL GAS SYSTEM) AND 90 MMCFPD IN NACO – HERMOSILLO PIPELINE. i Guaymas Kinder Morgan i i Chávez Los Ramones Zacatecas Aguascalientes S.L.P. i i 1 2 PRIVATE PIPELINES PEMEX GAS PIPELINES PEMEX GAS IMPORTS PRIVATE IMPORTS PEMEX GAS COMPRESSION STATION PRIVATE COMPRESSION STATION Guadalajara Valtierrilla i LNG Manzanillo GDT Altamira i LNG Altamira Tamazunchale El Sauz Tejas Gas Mayakan Source: Memory tasks 2012 (9,038 km). It includes Jáltipan Salina Cruz 12” pipeline and Los Ramones Project Phase I, which will provide 71.46 miles in December 2014. Reference: Capacity in accordance with Resolution 204 of 2010 of the Energy Regulatory Commission. Natural gas infrastructure projects 2015-2019 Sásabe 5 1 Pipelines 1. San Isidro- Samalayuca (CFE) 2. Sur de Texas – Tuxpan (submarino) (CFE) 3. Tula – Villa de Reyes (CFE) 4. Tuxpan – Tula (CFE) 5. Samalayuca – Sásabe (CFE) 6. Colombia – Escobedo 7. Jáltipan – Salina Cruz (PEMEX) 8. Los Ramones – Cempoala 9. Villa de Reyes - Ags. – Guadalajara (CFE) 10. La Laguna – Aguascalientes (CFE) 11. Lázaro Cárdenas – Acapulco 12. Salina Cruz – Tapachula San Isidro Samalayuca Puerto Libertad El Encino Guaymas Colombia 6 Camargo El Oro La Laguna Topolobampo Escobedo Los Ramones Durango LNG regasification terminals Pipelines in operation Concluded Pipelines (2013/2014/2015) Mazatlán 2 10 Zacatecas San Luis Potosí Aguascalientes 8 Tamazunchale 3 9 Guadalajara Altamira V. Reyes 4 Naranjos Tuxpan Tula Apaseo el Alto Nativitas Pipelines in construction (2015/2016) Pipelines included at “Plan Quinquenal” Compression Station “El Cabrito” Cempoala Huexca 11 Lázaro Cárdenas Acapulco Ciudad Pemex Jáltipan Nuevo Pemex 7 Salina Cruz Source: SENER. Plan Quinquenal de Transporte y Almacenamiento Nacional Integrado de Gas Natural 2015-2019. 12 Tapachula Natural gas infrastructure projects 2015-2019 Project Sponsor Es>mated Es>mated Lenght Investment date of (kms) (MMUSD) Bidding Es>mated Opera>onal Date 1 San Isidro -‐ Samalayuca CFE 23 109* 2015 2017 2 Sur de Texas – Tuxpan (submarino) CFE 800 3,100 2015 2018 3 Tula – Villa de Reyes CFE 295 420 2015 2017 4 Tuxpan – Tula CFE 263 400 2015 2017 5 Samalayuca – Sásabe CFE 650 571* 2015 2017 6 Colombia – Escobedo To be define 300 N/A 2016 2018 7 JálApan – Salina Cruz PEMEX 247 643 2015 2017 8 Los Ramones – Cempoala To be define 855 1,980 2017 2019 9 Villa de Reyes -‐ Aguascalientes – Guadalajara CFE 355 555 2015 2017 10 La Laguna –Aguascalientes CFE 600 1,000 2016 2017 11 Lázaro Cárdenas – Acapulco To be define 331 456 2016 2018 12 Salina Cruz – Tapachula To be define 440 442 2016 2018 PEMEX N/A 60 2015 2016 13 El Cabrito Compression StaAon *Amount of investment estimated by the winning bidder of the project Firm export capacity of natural gas from US to Mexico 2014-2016 2.520 1.988 1.974 1.588 Bcf/D MGS 1.115 CFE 0.300 2014 2015 2016 Energy reform THE OPERATION OF PEMEX AS UNIQUE PRODUCER OF HYDROCARBONS IN THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN MODIFIED BY A NEW MODEL OF OPEN COMPETITION: PEMEX BEFORE (OLD MODEL) PEMEX NOW (NEW MODEL) DECENTRALIZED PUBLIC ENTITY § PRODUCTIVE COMPANY OF THE STATE (PEMEX). § PRODUCTIVE SUBSIDIARIES ENTITIES (PEP, TRI & LOGISTICS). RESOURCE MANAGER § COMPETITIVE COMPANY WHOSE PURPOSE IS TO CREATE ECONOMIC VALUE. RESPONSIBLE OF SUPPLY ASSURANCE § MARKET SHAREHOLDER. § SENER IS ON CHARGE OF ENERGY SECURITY, IN SUPPLY MATTERS. PERMIT REGIME FOR SOME § PERMIT REGULATION FOR ALL ACTIVITIES OF THE VALUE CHAIN. ACTIVITIES New Business Models - Downstream PEMEX has developed successful strategic alliances in downstream activities. GAS PIPELINES JOINT VENTURES PEMEX’S PARTICIPATION COMPANY OBJECTIVE El Paso Natural Gas (1997) Sempra Energy (2010) (partner) NET (partner) Kinder Morgan/ Mitsui (partners) NATURAL GAS AND LPG TO DEVELOP TO DEVELOP INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT “LOS RAMONES II NORTH AND TO DEVELOP TRANSPORTATION TO POWER PLANTS IN THE NORTHERN INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT “AGUA DULCE- SOUTH” FRONTERA” INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT “TUCSON- 2013 2013 REGION OF OPERATIONS STARTUP MGS & MGE (subsidiaries) / GCh (investee) / GDF Suez (partner) MEXICO 1997 SÁSABE” 2013 Conclusions • PEMEX, as a Productive State Enterprise aims to maximize economic value and profitability for the Mexican state, by improving its productivity to maximize oil and gas revenues and contribute to national development. • PEMEX operation as the only producer of hydrocarbons in the country has changed by a new model of open competition. • PEMEX can take advantage of the opportunity to establish new legal framework with strategic partners to consider alliances or joint ventures.
© Copyright 2024