1. Art and Diseño

INSIDE AGRICULTURE
Thursday, January 29, 2015
NEW YORK SUGAR-OUTLOOK
TOP NEWS
Click on the chart for full-size image
 Fed upbeat on U.S. economy, cites strong job gains
 China state corn stocks seen soaring-Industry
 POLL-Coffee prices seen rising as deficit forecasts widen
 POLL-Raw sugar price recovery will be marginal; refined market
outlook better
 Forecasts for Brazil's coffee, sugar, grain belts turn wetter
 Nigerian farmers face eviction by foreign mega-plantation - TRFN
 NZ'S Fonterra cuts 14/15 milk volume forecast due to dry
weather
 POLL-U.S. cattle herd seen stabilizing
TODAY’S MARKETS
Futures
(as of 0730 GMT)
Active
Price
Change
YTD
CBOT Wheat
MAR5
502 6/8
-2 4/8
-14.33%
1,843
CBOT Corn
MAR5
371 4/8
-1 6/8
-5.98%
7,469
CBOT Soybean
MAR5
969 6/8
- 4/8
-4.81%
4,219
CBOT Soybean Oil MAR5
$30.21
-$0.13
-5.10%
2,570
CBOT Soy Meal
MAR5
$337.40
$0.00
-7.46%
953
ICE Cotton
MAR5
$59.43
-$0.01
-1.38%
673
Asia Contracts
M3
Settle
Change
Volume
Percent
BMD Palm Oil
MAR5
R2,247
-R8
-0.4%
Dalian Soybean Oil
MAR5
￥5,318
-￥92
-1.7%
ECONOMIC WATCH
GMT
Indicators
Unit Reuters
Prior
10:00 EZ Consumer Confid. Final
ind
-8.5
-10.9
10:00 EZ Economic Sentiment
ind
101.5
100.7
10:00 EZ Services Sentiment
ind
6.0
5.6
10:00 EZ Business Climate
ind
0.1
0.04
10:00 EZ Industrial Sentiment
ind
-4.5
-5.2
--
30
61
13:00 DE HICP Prelim MM
pct
-1.0
0.1
13:00 DE HICP Prelim YY
pct
-0.2
0.1
11:00 GB CBI Distributive Trades
13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
k
300,000 307,000
13:30 US Continued Jobless Claims
mln
2.420
2.443
15:00 US Pending Homes Index
ind
--
104.8
15:00 US Pending Sales Change MM
pct
0.5
0.8
GRAINS: Chicago wheat fell for a seventh session to trade near its
lowest since early October, following forecasts for rains in the U.S.
Plains that are expected to boost output and add to an amply supplied world market. "It shows how the wheat market overreacted to
curbs on Russian supplies in December and early January," said
Paul Deane, senior agricultural economist, ANZ Bank, referring to a
rally in wheat prices when Russia reduced exports.
SOFTS: New York cocoa futures fell to a one-year low in heavy
volume on Wednesday, extending their slide due to abundant supplies and falling demand, while raw sugar futures steadied. Arabica
coffee futures fell on forecasts for substantial rain in parts of the
growing region.
EDIBLE OIL: Malaysian palm oil fell 1.7 percent as the market
snapped two sessions of gains to trade near its lowest in five
weeks, under pressure from plentiful global edible oil supplies and
slowing demand. "Palm oil has been unable to hold on to gains in
the face of persistent weakness in soy complexes and lower energy prices," said one Kuala Lumpur-based trader. "The bearish
scenario in commodity markets will keep pressure on palm oil."
STOCKS: European stocks were set to fall at open and Asian
markets extended losses after the Federal Reserve took an upbeat
view on the U.S. economy and signalled that it remains firmly on
track to raise interest rates this year, despite an uncertain global
outlook. Wall Street ended lower on Wednesday.
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INSIDE AGRICULTURE
January 29, 2015
TOP NEWS
Fed upbeat on U.S. economy, cites strong job gains
China state corn stocks seen soaring-Industry
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said the U.S. economy
was expanding "at a solid pace" with strong job gains in a signal
that the central bank remains on track with its plans to raise
interest rates this year.
The Fed repeated it would be "patient" in deciding when to raise
benchmark borrowing costs from zero, though it also acknowledged a decline in certain inflation measures.
After a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee,
policymakers struck an upbeat tone on the U.S. economy's
prospects and held to their view that energy-led weakness in
inflation would dissipate.
"The committee, in fact, was downright bullish on current economic conditions and the outlook," said Paul Edelstein, director
of financial economics at IHS Global Insight.
In making its announcement, the Fed largely skirted slumping
economies in Europe and Asia, saying only that it would take
"financial and international developments" into account when
determining when to raise rates, adding a reference to global
markets for the first time since January 2013.
China's state corn stockpiles are expected to climb by a record
volume this year, as Beijing's efforts to boost demand with a tax
rebate for corn starch exports struggle to stimulate sales, industry officials said.
Beijing's policy of subsidising corn prices has supported production and swollen stocks, pushing China to raise export tax rebates for corn starch and other corn-based products such as
monosodium glutamate to 13 percent in a bid to make exports
competitive.
"It will be of little help as the industry is unable to export much
and has been making losses over the past few years," said Fan
Chunyan, an official at the China Starch Industry Association.
China's corn consumption fell for a second year in 2013/14, also
hit by buyers continuing to opt for cheaper substitutes, such as
distillers' dried grains (DDGs).
POLL-Raw sugar price recovery will be marginal; refined
market outlook better
Raw sugar prices are unlikely to make any substantial recovery
this year even as growers cut production, reducing the excess
that has punished prices for the past four years, according to a
Reuters poll of 15 analysts and traders.
Spot raw sugar futures on ICE Futures U.S will be at 17 cents a
lb by the end of 2015, up about 12 percent from current levels,
according to the median forecast of 15 analysts and traders
polled by Reuters.
That would be marginal relief for global sugar producers struggling with prices below estimated production costs.
The market will shift to a supply-demand balance in the 2014/15
crop year which runs through end-September, ending four years
of oversupply, before moving to a deficit of more than 3 million
tonnes next season, they predicted.
POLL-Coffee prices seen rising as deficit forecasts widen
Coffee prices are expected to rise this year, with a global deficit
in 2014/15 seen wider than previously anticipated, a Reuters
poll of 13 traders and analysts showed on Wednesday.
The survey produced a median forecast of a global coffee deficit
of 6 million 60-kg bags in the 2014/15 marketing year, which
ends in September.
A previous survey in July had pointed to a global shortfall of 4
million bags in 2014/15 after a surplus of 2.5 million in
2013/14.
Benchmark ICE arabica futures were seen rising further in the
latest poll, after climbing 50 percent in calendar 2014. They
were projected to increase to a median of $1.80 cents a lb at the
end of the first quarter on March 31 and to $1.98 at the end of
2015.
Nigerian farmers face eviction by foreign mega-plantation TRFN
Thousands of small farmers in northeastern Nigeria are facing
eviction from their ancestral lands without consultation or compensation to make way for a U.S.-owned rice plantation, according to a report released on Wednesday.
A new 30,000 hectare rice plantation, owned by Oklahomabased Dominion Farms, will displace up to 40,000 people in
Taraba state, said Mariann Bassey Orovwuje, a spokeswoman
for the NGO Friends of the Earth Nigeria, one of the environmental and activist groups behind the report.
"The people living on this land didn't even know the deal was
happening," Orovwuje told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
"Compensation is not coming; the people were never asked and
never told. Eventually, they will all be forced off the land."
Forecasts for Brazil's coffee, sugar, grain belts turn wetter
Forecasts for widespread rains over Brazil's coffee belt turned
more intense in the past 24 hours, with expected precipitation
shifting from below to above historical averages in key growing
areas of Minas Gerais, the main coffee state, data from Reuters
Weather Dashboard showed on Wednesday.
Scattered showers over the country's agriculturally rich centersouth early this week will expand and intensify through midFebruary to bring substantial volumes of rain to parched grain,
coffee and sugar cane areas, other forecasters said on Wednesday.
The moisture comes after nearly three weeks of hot, dry
weather over farms in the heart of the coffee, sugar and soy
belts had raised concerns of another drought like the one that
struck the region in early 2014.
Showers are still hit or miss in many areas, but maps from local
forecaster Somar showed rains gathering over a region including Brazil's top two coffee states, Minas Gerais and Espirito
Santo.
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INSIDE AGRICULTURE
January 29, 2015
TOP NEWS (Continued)
NZ'S Fonterra cuts 14/15 milk volume forecast due to dry
weather
POLL-U.S. cattle herd seen stabilizing
The seven-year decline in the U.S. cattle herd appears to have
slowed as of Jan. 1 compared to a year ago, suggesting ranchers are rebuilding herds while capitalizing on affordable feed
and periodic livestock price spikes to record highs, according to
analysts polled by Reuters.
Currently, the cattle herd in the United States is at its lowest
level since 1951 after several years of drought shriveled crops,
forcing ranchers to downsize herds.
Ron Plain, a livestock economist at the University of Missouri,
expects the report to show the number of breeding animals and
total inventory closer to year-ago levels.
"I think 2015 will be the last year of declines in the herd or the
first year of growth," he said.
New Zealand's Fonterra dairy co-operative on Thursday cut its
forecast on the amount of milk it will get from suppliers this season as dry weather in the world's largest dairy exporting country
hits output.
The company said it would collect 1.532 billion kilograms of milk
solids in the year to May, 3.3 percent less than last season's
record production, as a lack of rain had left pastures dry.
Farmers have also been reining in milk production after a flood
of supply from Europe and the United States pummeled prices,
stoking economic fears in a country where milk products account for around one-third of all exports.
"In the first half of the season, excellent pasture conditions resulted in milk volumes being higher than the previous season.
The situation has changed significantly over the course of this
month," Fonterra director of co-operative affairs Miles Hurrell
said in a statement.
TENDER
WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia's state grain buyer, the Grain
Silos and Flour Mills Organization (GSFMO), said on Thursday
it was seeking 660,000 tonnes of hard wheat in a tender.
WHEAT TENDER: Jordan's state grain buyer has purchased
100,000 tonnes of optional-origin hard wheat in an international tender for the same volume which closed on Wednesday,
European traders said.
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INSIDE AGRICULTURE
January 29, 2015
1-Month TECHNICAL CHARTS with 14 Days Moving Average
CBOT Corn
CBOT Wheat
ICE Cocoa
ICE Coffee
CBOT Soybeans
CBOT Soymeal
(Inside Agriculture is compiled by Atiqul Habib in Bangalore)
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