ATI Mid-day Commentary
MID-DAY COMMENTS
www.advance-trading.com
January 29, 2015
HIGHLIGHTS: MACRO: U.S. indices are mixed this morning. The DOW is 73 higher but both the S&P (-.03) and the NAS (-12) are in varying
degrees of negative territory. Europe had the DAX and CAC 40 with ¼ to ½% gains; the FTSE loss ¼% point. Unemployment claims of 265 K
were a 15 year low, well under the 300 K consensus. But, pending home sales fell 3.7% in December in contrast for ideas of a .6% increase.
The trade continues to berate the $ for its impact on earnings; today the Index is up ½ point at 95.20; energy futures are working lower,
with CLH off 60 cents; gold is out of favor today, giving up $32 at the moment. T-Storm Weather: Decent overnight rains in South America
with ½ to 1” in Argentina and less than ½” for much of Brazil. Argentina is still forecast for average rains for the next ten days with above
average temperatures, the forecast is for average rains over the Brazilian bean areas for the next ten days with below average
temperatures. The moisture focus will be on the driest areas of Center-West, Northeast, and Southeast Brazil. There should also be
scattered t-storms in other areas of Brazil/Paraguay. A mix of weather continues in Argentina, but heavy rainfall is not foreseen in wettest
areas. Rain and snow affect some U.S. cattle and hog areas this weekend as the unusually-mild pattern further breaks in the Plains. The
potential for a winter storm exists in the Corn Belt Sunday-Monday. EUROPEAN GRAINS: May UK Feed Wheat, up 6 ½ to $4.83 ¼; Mar
French Maize: up 2 ¼ to $4.40; Mar French Milling Wheat, up 1 ½ to $5.78 ¾
Corn
Fund selling, dollar strength despite best month of export sales in 7 years; glass ½ full or ½ empty—calling the
50% sales drop from LW, “an ominous sign”: CH5: down 3; CK5: down 3; CZ5: down 2-3
Spreads: CH/CK: -8 ½, off ¼; CH/CN: -16, down ¼; CK/CN: -7 ¾, off ¼; CN/CU: -6 ¾, steady; CN/CZ: -15 ¼, steady;
CU15/CZ15: -8 ¼, up ¼; CZ15/CH16: -8 ½, steady
CIF: JAN, 54/59, down 2; FEB, 56/61, 2 higher; Brazil: AUG, steady at 50/60. Ethanol: Cedar Rapids, 0 CH,
steady; Blair, -2 CH, steady; Decatur, +3 CH, steady; Fort Dodge, -8 CH, steady; IN, 4 to -7 CH, steady. Hereford:
Jan +72 CH, off 1; Feb, down 1 to 73 CH. CIF Milo, 225 CH, steady
FHG Barge Freight: IL River, 440/460, off 10-15; STL, 325/350, steady; OH River, 350/375, steady; MemphisCairo, 240/250, steady
World FOB values ($/MT)—
Today
Change
Argentina
$181
-$10
Ukraine
$173
-$7
Ukraine Feed Wheat
$2155
-$10
Brazil (Cif)
$181
$0
Bordeaux (France)
$171
+$1
US Gulf
$181
-$1
CIF Milo
225 CH
NA
Export Sales—Another solid week of corn activity at 42.1 with the trade thinking 33-37; 16.6/wk needed. Good
list of buyers. Milo was a robust 9.1, mostly China; YTD at is at 270 mbu which IS the USDA forecast
Daily Sales Announcement: USDA says 116 K MT of milo sold to Unknown (1/2 TY, ½ NY)
Oct-Jan corn exports from the Ukraine total 8.7 MMT, down from 11.9 for the same period last year
Dalian May corn futures edged a ½ cent lower to $9.83 ¾ (rate: Yuan = .16002 $US
Soybeans
Supported early on strong export sales, optimism fades; good SBM # suggest continue decent crush; Argentina
biodiesel ruling pressures sbo again: SH: down 2; SK: down 2; SMH: +$1.70; SMK +$1.90; BOH: -0.97; BOK: -0.97
Spreads: SB: H/K: -6 ¾, up ¼; K/N: -5 ¼, up ½; N/X: +28, up 3 ¼. SBM: H/K: -$.10, $7.40. Board crush down 4 cents
to $1.01 1/2, oil much weaker again
CIF: JAN, 86/89, down 1; FHFEB, 79/84, also 1 lower; BRAZIL--FHFEB: 90/100, unch; LHFEB: 77/90, unch
World FOB values ($/MT):
Today
Change
U.S. Gulf
$393
-$2
PNW
$405
-$2
Brazil
$384 (Feb)
$0
Argentina
$373 (Mar)
-$6
Ukraine
$370
-$10
Export Sales—Surprisingly strong bean # at 32.6. Trade was looking for 7-15 with only 3.7/week needed. China
bought 62%; SBM was just shy of 300 K MT (150-350) with 99/wk needed. SBO at 10.6 K fell short of the trade
range. SBM exports were 276 K; 4-week average at 320 K/Wk ties LY for the all-time seasonal high
India contemplating reducing duty on imported soybeans from 30%, down to 5 to 10% to boost domestic
processing
Low January rainfall ceases barge operations on Brazil’s Tiete River, to delay start of peak export season;
possibly shift some demand back to the U.S. –Bloomberg
Disclaimer – This material is a solicitation to enter into a derivatives transaction. The information and data contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Advance Trading Inc. ("Advance") does not
warrant their accuracy or completeness. Recommendations and opinions contained herein reflect the judgment of Advance as of the date hereof, are subject to change, and are based on certain assumptions, only some of which
are noted herein. Different assumptions could yield substantially different results. You are cautioned that there is no universally accepted method for analyzing financial instruments. Advance does not guarantee any results and
there is no guarantee as to the liquidity of the instruments involved in our analysis. Advance, its affiliates, and its and their officers, directors, and employees may sell or purchase, for their own account or for customers, positions
in futures, options or other instruments which may be similar or different from the positions referred to herein. As a matter of policy, Advance does not give tax, accounting, regulatory or legal advice to clients. Clients therefore
should consult their own advisors regarding the tax, accounting and legal implications of the recommended strategies before transactions are affected. Trading commodity futures and options involves significant risk and is not
appropriate for all investors. Information relating to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Reproduction in any form without Advance's express written consent is strictly forbidden.
MID-DAY COMMENTS
www.advance-trading.com
January 29, 2015
May Dalian SB futures plummeted 26 ½ cents overnight to $19.03 ½; May SBM was off $.60 to $389.78); South
American beans were penciling out to crush margins of $.21 to $.36 per bushel
Wheat
Solid export sales, especially for HRW, Spring and white wheat said to give at least a temporary boost to futures:
WH: up 5; KWH: up 11-12; MWH: up 9-10
Spreads: WH/WK: -5, steady; KWH/KWK: -5 ½, up ½; MWH/MWK: -6 ¾, up 1
SRW FGH: 80/100, steady; GH: 90/100, steady. HRW F: 120/UNQ, no change; GH: 123/UNQ, steady
World FOB Values
Today
Change
FOB Rouen
10.5%
$215
+$1
FOB Russia
11.5%
$252
-$2
FOB India
11.5%
$284
$0
FOB Argentina
12%
$245
-$23
FOB Baltic
12%
$243
$0
S AUS
APW
NA
NA
US HRW
FOB
$250
-$11
US SRW
FOB
$238
-$7
Export Sales—better than expected (9-17) at 20 mbu. The Philippines bot 3.5 mbu. Sales by class included HRW
7.1 (4.7 LW); HRS, 5.9 (7.7); white, 5.7 (3.4); SRW, 1.3 (1.1)
The U.K. cuts wheat supply forecast by a modest 15 k MT from its November forecast, down to 19.864 MMT
Ukraine Ag Minister says wheat exports to-date now total 8.6 MMT since July 1, versus 7.0 a year ago
Disclaimer – This material is a solicitation to enter into a derivatives transaction. The information and data contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Advance Trading Inc. ("Advance") does not
warrant their accuracy or completeness. Recommendations and opinions contained herein reflect the judgment of Advance as of the date hereof, are subject to change, and are based on certain assumptions, only some of which
are noted herein. Different assumptions could yield substantially different results. You are cautioned that there is no universally accepted method for analyzing financial instruments. Advance does not guarantee any results and
there is no guarantee as to the liquidity of the instruments involved in our analysis. Advance, its affiliates, and its and their officers, directors, and employees may sell or purchase, for their own account or for customers, positions
in futures, options or other instruments which may be similar or different from the positions referred to herein. As a matter of policy, Advance does not give tax, accounting, regulatory or legal advice to clients. Clients therefore
should consult their own advisors regarding the tax, accounting and legal implications of the recommended strategies before transactions are affected. Trading commodity futures and options involves significant risk and is not
appropriate for all investors. Information relating to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Reproduction in any form without Advance's express written consent is strictly forbidden.
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