1. Art and Diseño

INSIDE AGRICULTURE
Friday, January 30, 2015
WORLD SUGAR PRICE
TOP NEWS
Click on the chart for full-size image
 U.S. jobless claims drop sharply to near 15-year low
 Green Pool sees first sugar deficit after years of surpluses
 Rapeseed crops in Western Europe seen vulnerable to frost
 POLL-Global 2014/15 cocoa surplus seen weighing on prices
 Japan to cut beef, pork tariffs, expand rice access in TPP talks Media
 Potash Corp's profit beats on higher potash sales; outlook misses
 Washington state company issues beef recall over E. coli
concerns
 Nigeria H5N1 bird flu spreads to four more states, total 11
TODAY’S MARKETS
Futures
(as of 0730 GMT)
Active
Price
CBOT Wheat
MAR5
CBOT Corn
MAR5
CBOT Soybean
MAR5
Change
YTD
Volume
508 2/8
4/8
-13.90%
2,323
370 2/8
-1 2/8
-6.42%
6,908
970 6/8
2 4/8
-5.00%
5,086
CBOT Soybean Oil MAR5
$29.73
$0.19
-7.60%
3,987
CBOT Soy Meal
MAR5
$338.70
$0.80
-7.32%
1,734
ICE Cotton
MAR5
$59.32
-$0.25
-1.16%
236
Asia Contracts
M3
Settle
Change
Percent
BMD Palm Oil
MAR5
R2,247
-R8
-0.4%
Dalian Soybean Oil
MAR5
￥5,286
-￥32
-0.6%
ECONOMIC WATCH
GMT
Indicators
Unit Reuters
Prior
08:00 ES Estimated GDP QQ
pct
0.6
0.5
08:00 ES HICP Flash YY
pct
-1.5
-1.1
09:30 GB Mortgage Lending
bln
2.0
2.059
09:30 GB BOE Consumer Credit
bln
1.2
1.252
09:30 GB Mortgage Approvals
k
59,000
59.029
10:00 EZ Unemployment Rate
pct
11.5
11.5
10:00 EZ Inflation, Flash YY
pct
-0.5
-0.2
13:30 US Employment Costs
pct
0.6
0.7
13:30 US PCE Prices Advance Adv
pct
0.8
1.2
13:30 US GDP Sales Advance Adv
pct
3.3
5.0
14:45 US Chicago PMI
ind
57.5
58.8
15:00 US U Mich Sentiment Final
ind
98.2
98.2
GRAINS: U.S. wheat held steady after rising in the previous session, but the market is poised for its biggest monthly drop in more
than three years because of ample world supplies.
SOFTS: Arabica coffee futures on ICE sank more than 5 percent
on Thursday, falling to a 6-1/2-month low on technical longliquidation, while raw sugar fell on talk that India could soon launch
raw sugar export incentives.
EDIBLE OIL: Malaysian palm oil futures decreased 0.8 percent to
their lowest since mid-December as weakness in competing markets and expectations of weak monthly export figures weigh on
prices that have lost more than 12 percent since mid-January.
STOCKS: European stocks were set looked to open higher while
Asian markets traded mixed due to persistent concerns over
global growth and sagging Chinese shares. Wall Street ended
positive on Thursday.
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INSIDE AGRICULTURE
January 30, 2015
TOP NEWS
U.S. jobless claims drop sharply to near 15-year low
Green Pool sees first sugar deficit after years of surpluses
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment
benefits tumbled last week to its lowest level in nearly 15 years,
adding to bullish signals on the labor market.
Though the decline probably exaggerates the jobs market's
strength given a holiday-shortened week, Thursday's report
suggested the economy was fairly healthy and weathering
weakening global growth.
"Claims are a welcome shot in the arm for those believing the
economy is strong. The U.S. remains an oasis of prosperity in
the world and will continue to do so," said Chris Rupkey, chief
financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 43,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 265,000 for the week ended Jan. 24, the
lowest since April 2000, the Labor Department said. It was the
biggest weekly decline since November 2012.
The world sugar market looks headed for its first deficit for six
years, analyst Green Pool said on Thursday, predicting that
more deficits could follow over several years.
Green Pool, one of the first major analysts to have predicted a
global sugar deficit in 2015/16, forecast a deficit of 5.0 million
tonnes in 2015/16 after a surplus of 1.7 million tonnes in the
prior year.
A Reuters sugar poll also said on Thursday the global sugar
market will shift to a deficit in 2015/16.
Green Pool's annual crop production forecasts are based on
crop year cycles.
The key to the deficit is continued growth in consumption, combined with a small reduction in global production.
POLL-Global 2014/15 cocoa surplus seen weighing on
prices
Rapeseed crops in Western Europe seen vulnerable to frost
Cocoa prices will finish 2015 lower than last year as the market
remains in surplus for a second straight year on falling demand
for the key chocolate ingredient, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
A survey of 16 traders, analysts and manufacturers pegged the
global cocoa market in the 2014/15 (October/September) marketing year at a 50,000-tonne surplus, with estimates ranging
from a 300,000 tonne deficit to a 200,000 tonne surplus.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecast a 53,000tonne surplus in 2013/14, though said last week it may revise
this in February.
"The ongoing global currency crisis, deflationary wave in commodities and an ongoing erosion of consumer disposable income should conspire to not only keep cocoa in a surplus but
also force speculators to flee the market completely," Shawn
Hackett, of Hackett Financial Advisors in Florida.
Rapeseed crops in western Europe are developing generally
well but a mild autumn which boosted plant growth and bug attacks has left them vulnerable to frost damage, mainly in Germany and Britain, analysts and experts said on Thursday.
French consultancy Strategie Grains on Thursday put the 2015
rapeseed crop in the 28-member European Union at 21.5 million
tonnes, more than 11 percent below last year's record harvest.
Rapeseed is the most widely grown oilseed crop in the EU and
is used to make edible oils, biodiesel fuel and animal feed.
In Germany, the bloc's largest rapeseed grower, farmers face
an anxious time this winter, analysts said.
"Everything is looking fine at the moment but a sudden cold
snap could bring the danger of heavy damage," one said.
Japan to cut beef, pork tariffs, expand rice access in TPP
talks -Media
Potash Corp's profit beats on higher potash sales; outlook
misses
Japan is prepared to cut its high import tariffs on beef and pork
and slightly ease tight restrictions on rice imports for U.S. producers, in a rush to seal an ambitious Pacific trade deal, Japanese media said on Friday.
Tokyo's reported concessions come as talks accelerate with
Washington to strike a bilateral deal as the core of an overdue
agreement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
A bilateral agreement between the two economies, which dominate the TPP, is considered key to a deal among the 12 nations,
which account for 40 percent of the world economy. Negotiators
had hoped to clinch a deal by late last year.
Japan and the United States are working toward an agreement
to cut Japan's 38.5 percent beef tariff to about 10 percent over
more than 10 years, the Nikkei newspaper said.
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, the world's biggest fertilizer
company by market capitalization, reported higher-thanexpected quarterly profit on strong potash sales, but its 2015
outlook disappointed.
Potash Corp sold 2.5 million tonnes of potash, the most ever in
a fourth quarter and up 42 percent year over year. Its average
realized potash price was $284 per tonne, up marginally from a
year earlier.
Prices have been slow to recover since the breakup in mid-2013
of one of the world's biggest potash traders, Belarusian Potash
Company, but softer prices have stimulated demand.
"We saw a balance here, and part of the reason is affordability,"
said Potash Corp Chief Executive Jochen Tilk in an interview.
"And we expect that to be the case this year."
Tilk is reviewing equity stakes in China’s Sinofert Holdings Ltd,
Israel Chemicals, Jordan's Arab Potash Co Plc and Chile’s
SQM, with an eye toward taking control.
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INSIDE AGRICULTURE
January 30, 2015
TOP NEWS (Continued)
Washington state company issues beef recall over E. coli
concerns
Nigeria H5N1 bird flu spreads to four more states, total 11
An outbreak of H5N1 bird flu in Nigerian poultry farms has
spread to four more states, raising the total of affected areas to
11, the agricultural and rural development minister said on
Thursday.
Africa's most populous country and biggest economy was the
first country on the continent to detect bird flu, in 2006 when
chicken farms were found to have the H5N1 strain. In 2007,
Nigeria recorded its first human death from the disease.
"At the time of my briefing the nation on January 21, 2015,
seven states had reported cases of the bird flu. As of yesterday,
a total of 11 states have reported positive cases,” Minister Akinwumi Adesina said at an emergency meeting with state agricultural commissioners in the capital Abuja.
The latest bird flu outbreak was first reported in mid-January in
the states of Kano and Lagos. The worst-hit state is Kano in the
north where 136,905 birds were exposed with a 13 percent mortality rate.
A Washington state company has voluntarily recalled 1,620
pounds of beef due to possible E. coli contamination, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture said on Thursday.
Washington Beef LLC, based in Toppenish in central Washington, discovered the possible E. coli bacteria in boneless beef
trim during an internal records audit by the company, the USDA
said in a statement.
The possible contamination was in 27 bulk cases of beef sent to
a single grinding facility in 2012, the USDA said. The beef was
to be used in hotels, restaurants and institutions in Oregon and
Washington, the agency said.
There have been no reports of illnesses associated with consumption of the product.
TENDER
WHEAT TENDER: The lowest offer in the Lebanese government's tender to purchase 30,000 tonnes of milling wheat was
$256.23 a tonne c&f free out (ciffo), European traders said on
Thursday.
RICE TENDER: Tunisia's state grains agency has issued an
international tender to purchase up to 117,000 tonnes of soft
milling wheat and 50,000 tonnes of feed barley, European traders said on Thursday.
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INSIDE AGRICULTURE
January 30, 2015
1-Month TECHNICAL CHARTS with 14 Days Moving Average
CBOT Corn
CBOT Wheat
ICE Cocoa
ICE Coffee
CBOT Soybeans
CBOT Soymeal
(Inside Agriculture is compiled by Atiqul Habib in Bangalore)
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