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Citibank Wealth Management
Weekly FX Insight
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Weekly FX Insight
Feb 2, 2015
with data as of Jan 30, 2015
Market Review & Focus
FX Analysis
FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
P. 1 - 4
P. 5 - 9
P. 10 - 13
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Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited
Weekly FX Recap
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Major Currencies Weekly Performance
LAST WEEK PERFORMANCE
CCY
USD
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CHF
GOLD
52 week
high
52 week
low
1 year %
change
16.92%
Close Price
Day High
Day Low
94.80
95.53
93.70
95.53
78.91
1.1291
1.1423
1.1098
1.3993
1.1098 -16.70%
117.49
118.66
117.26
121.85
100.76 -12.57%
1.5060
1.5224
1.4966
1.7192
1.4952
1.2732
1.2799
1.2380
1.2799
1.0621 -12.37%
0.7762
0.8025
0.7720
0.9505
0.7720 -11.74%
0.7261
0.7494
0.7216
0.8836
0.7216 -11.08%
0.9202
0.9290
0.8765
1.0240
0.7406
1283.77
1299.37
1252.05
1392.22 1131.24 3.20%
Weekly changes versus US dollar
USD INDEX
0.04%
EUR
0.78%
JPY
0.24%
GBP
0.47%
CAD
-2.51%
-8.64%
AUD
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
-1.89%
-1.90%
NZD
CHF
-2.54%
-4.56%
GOLD
-6.00%
-0.80%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
USD
The Fed is positive on the economic outlook. Although Q4 GDP grew only 2.6%, the 4.3% gain in consumption
suggests that households were confident, underpinning the USD. We anticipate further solid gains in real
consumer spending in the first half of 2015, as households begin to use the windfall from lower energy costs. The
dollar index rose 0.04% to close at 94.80 last week. USD outlook: The dollar index may test higher to 95.86.
AUD
The AUD dropped amid expectations of rate cuts by the RBA, although Australia’s weighted CPI yearly growth
changed from 0.5% to 0.7%. AUD/USD dropped 1.9% to close at 0.7762 last week. AUD outlook: AUD/USD may
consolidate between 0.7704-0.8067.
NZD
CHF
The NZD breached 0.73 as the RBNZ turned its monetary policy stance from hawkish to neutral and talked down
the kiwi. NZD/USD dropped 2.5% to close at 0.7261 last week. NZD outlook: NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7118.
The CHF plunged as SNB officials said the SNB has been ready for intervention and USD strengthened.
USD/CHF breached a resistance at 0.88 and rose 4.6% to close at 0.9202 last week. CHF outlook: USD/CHF
may rise to 0.9557-0.9607 gradually.
1
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Weekly FX Strategies
1.
Bearish - AUD
• The AUD may be undermined as the RBA may downgrade its view on the economy in
this week’s meeting.
• AUD/USD may drop to 0.7268 (5.63) upon consolidation between 0.7704-0.8067
(5.97-6.25).
2.
Neutral – AUD/NZD
• AUD/USD may range trade as the RBA and the RBNZ may not hike rates until next
year.
• AUD/NZD may range trade between 1.0579-1.0829.
3.
Bullish – GBP/AUD
• GBP may outperform AUD on U.K. better fundamentals.
• GBP/AUD may test higher to 1.9692.
2
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
January FX Recap
• Major currencies dropped significantly against the USD as
global central banks’ monetary policy stances become
more accommodative. Some removed rate hike tendencies,
cut rates and even implemented QE.
EUR:
• The EUR dropped to 1.11 as the ECB announced to implement
1.1 trillion euros worth of QE program and the scale was far
higher than expectations of 550-600 billion euros.
• Syriza won the Greek election, fueling concerns that Greece
may default if it cannot obtain a new round of bailout on
schedule.
CHF:
• The CHF surged 18% in one single day as the SNB suddenly
removed EUR/CHF floor at 1.20.
• The CHF dropped again as some officials said the SNB would
employ measures for intervention. USD/CHF rose to 0.92.
Chart 1: Major Currencies Performance in January
USD INDEX
EUR
5.02%
-6.67%
JPY
1.95%
GBP
-3.32%
CAD -8.73%
AUD
NZD
-5.05%
-6.87%
CHF
8.05%
GOLD
8.39%
-12.00% -8.00% -4.00%
• The BoC thinks inflation may not be able to reach the target of
2% in 2015-16.
4.00%
8.00% 12.00%
Chart 2: Central Banks’ Monetary Policy Stances
CAD:
• USD/CAD rose to 1.27 as the BoC cut the interest rate by
25bps to 0.75%
0.00%
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
Previous
Current
Federal Reserve
Tightening
Rate hike tendency
European Central
Bank
Easing
More easing
Bank of Japan
Easing
Easing
NZD:
Bank of England
• The RBNZ kept the interest rate unchanged but its monetary
policy stance turned from hawkish to neutral.
Bank of Canada
Neutral
Rate cut
Reserve Bank of
Australia
Neutral
Neutral
Reserve Bank of NZ
Hawkish
Neutral
Swiss National Bank
CHF peg
Removal of CHF
peg
• The RBNZ also further talked down the kiwi. NZD/USD
breached 0.73.
Gold:
• Funds flow into safe-haven gold as the ECB implemented QE,
increasing volatility. Spot gold/USD rose near $1,300/ounce.
Rate hike tendency Rate hike tendency
Source: Citi, as of January 30, 2015
3
Weekly FX Focus:
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
The AUD may be undermined by RBA’s rate decision
• RBA’s rate decision this week may become the market
focus. We expect the RBA is unlikely to cut rates but it
may downgrade its view on the economy, which may
undermine the AUD.
Chart 1: AUD & Commodity Price Index
Forecasts on RBA’s statement:
• Do not cut rates: The RBA may keep the interest rate at 2.5%.
• Tweak the statement: The RBA may emphasize the further
decline in commodity prices and strengthen the language
around the AUD, but keep unchanged the monetary policy
guidance.
• More negative view on the economy: The RBA may shift to
an easing bias, highlighting risks to investment and incomes
from lower commodity prices and a too high AUD.
AUD Outlook:
• The continuing falls in key commodity prices meant fair value
for the AUD was also sliding (Chart 1).
Source: Citi, as of January 30, 2015
Chart 2: Market Estimates on Probability of Rate
Cuts(%)
• Since annual underlying inflation remained in the bottom half of
the target, an economic slowdown in China and easing policies
by other major central banks, market pricing still favoured lower
rates (Chart2).
• The RBA would want to keep the market pricing a cut for
currency reasons.
• If the RBA keeps the interest rate unchanged, this would only
shift expectations on the timing. AUD/USD may test lower to
0.7268 upon consolidation between 0.7704-0.8067.
65% probability of rate cuts
Source: Citi, as of January 30, 2015
4
AUD/USD
Please note and carefully read the
AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7268 (5.63) upon
Important Disclosure on the last page
consolidation
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7519 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
0.7762
(6.02)
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
0.8025
(6.22)
0.7720
(5.98)
0.7268
(5.63)
0.7704
(5.97)
0.8067
(6.25)
0.8209
(6.36)
0.82
(6.36)
0.72
(5.58)
Upcoming Economic Data
Fed 3: RBA rate decision
Market Recap:

The AUD dropped amid concerns of rate cuts
by the RBA, although Australia's weighted
CPI rose from 0.3% QoQ to 0.7% QoQ in Q4.
AUD Outlook:

The AUD may drop on rate cut expectations
in the short term.

Since the job market is improving amid
better-than-expected CPI and additional
measures may be needed to restrain the
local house prices due to rate cuts, Citi
analysts expect the RBA is unlikely to cut
rates.

However, RBA's statement may further talk
down the AUD and may turn more pessimistic
about Australia's economic outlook, which
may pressure the AUD.
0.7704-0.8067 (Jul
2009 & 2010 lows)
0.7070-0.7268 (Long-term
uptrend & Jan 2009 top)
Technical Analysis:

AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7268 (5.63)
upon consolidation between 0.7704-0.8067
(5.97-6.25).
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
5
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
NZD/USD
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7519 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
0.7261
(5.63)
0.7494
(5.81)
0.7216
(5.59)
0.6690
(5.19)
0.7118
(5.52)
0.7457
(5.78)
0.7609
(5.90)
0.77
(5.97)
0.67
(5.19)
The NZD downside may be limited amid good job data
Weekly recap: Although the RBNZ kept the interest rate
unchanged, the NZD dropped as its monetary policy stance turned
from hawkish to neutral and it said to keep the low interest rate for
some time.
Outlook analysis: Citi analysts expect the RBNZ to delay its rate
hikes from Dec 2015 to Q2 2016 due to rising disinflation risk, which
may pressure the NZD. However, unemployment rate that will be
released this week may drop from 5.4% to 5.2%, which may limit
NZD downside.
Technical analysis: NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7118 (5.52) but
it is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term.
NZD/USD – Daily Chart
0.7371-0.7457 (Nov 2011 & May 2012)
0.7118 (Mar 2011 low)
0.6540-0.6690
(200-month MA & Jul
2005 low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 29, 2015
GBP/USD
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
GBP/USD – Daily Chart
1.5060 1.5224 1.4966 1.4814 1.4952 1.5453 1.5808
1.53
1.47
(11.67) (11.80) (11.60) (11.48) (11.59) (11.98) (12.25) (11.86) (11.39)
The GBP may be supported at lows amid strong U.K.
economic growth
Weekly recap: The GBP was supported at lows last week as U.K.
economic growth rose 2.6% YoY to 2.7% YoY in Q4 2014, reflecting
strong U.K. economic growth.
Outlook analysis: Political uncertainties brought by the general
election in May and low inflation may prompt the BoE to delay its
rate hikes to Q1 2016, which may undermine the GBP. However,
GBP downside may be limited as the economic growth may reach
3% due to strong business investment underpinned by low oil
prices and rising wage.
Technical analysis: GBP/USD may range trade between
1.4952-1.5453 (11.59-11.98) due to the RSI divergence.
1.5453-1.5481
(55MA & fibo
0.236)
1.4952 (Jan 23 low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
6
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
GBP/AUD
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7519 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
1.9412
1.9501
1.8896
1.8685
1.8922
1.9692
2.0000
The GBP may outperform the AUD as low oil prices undermine
Australia's inflation but they underpin U.K consumption
Weekly recap: GBP/AUD surged last week as U.K. economic
growth remained strong in Q4 2014 while markets are concerned
that the RBA may announce rate cuts.
Outlook analysis: Australia's inflation downside pressure may
increase and export income may reduce amid falling oil prices and
iron ore prices and a slowdown in China's economic growth. By
contrast, low oil prices underpin U.K. consumption. Thus, the GBP
may outperform the AUD.
Technical analysis: GBP/AUD may test higher to 1.9692 after
breaching last Dec top at 1.9309.
GBP/AUD – Daily Chart
1.9692 (May 2009 low)
1.9309 (Dec 2014 top)
1.8685 (Oct 2014 top)
1.8922 (Jan 28
low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
AUD/NZD
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
1.0692
1.0798
1.0569
1.0355
1.0579
1.0829
1.0941
AUD/NZD may be pressured amid concerns of rate cuts by the
RBA but the downside may be limited
Weekly recap: AUD/NZD fell from tops last week as the RBNZ
kept the interest rate unchanged amid concerns of rate cuts by the
RBA this week.
Outlook analysis: AUD/NZD may be pressured as the RBA may
further talk down the AUD and may turn more pessimistic about
the economic outlook in this meeting while NZ job data was better
than expected. However, AUD/NZD downside may be limited as the
RBA is unlikely to cut rates.
Technical analysis: Since the RSI fell from the overbought region,
AUD/NZD may consolidate between 1.0579-1.0829.
AUD/NZD – Daily Chart
1.0829 (fibo
0.50
1.0579 (fibo 0.236)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
7
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
EUR/USD
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7519 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
1.1291
(8.75)
1.1423
(8.85)
1.1098
(8.60)
1.0433
(8.09)
1.1098
(8.60)
1.1640
(9.02)
1.1877
(9.21)
1.15
(8.91)
1.10
(8.53)
The EUR may be undermined as the ECB may need to expand
QE in the medium and long term
Weekly recap: Syriza won the Greek election and succeeded in
forming a coalition government but the EUR rebounded from lows
as markets have already priced in the negative factor.
Outlook analysis: The EUR may consolidate in the short term. In
the medium term, although the ECB implemented 1.1 trillion euros
worth of bond purchase program, the scale is not large enough to
support the inflation. Thus, the ECB may need to expand QE, which
may undermine the EUR.
Technical analysis: EUR/USD may consolidate in the short term
and may test lower to 1.0433 (8.09) in the medium term.
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
1.1640 (2005
low)
1.1141 (1994
low)
1.0288-1.0433
(Long-term uptrend
& 1997 low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
USD/JPY
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
117.49 118.66 117.26 113.52 115.57 120.83 121.85
116
130
(65.98) (65.33) (66.11) (68.29) (67.08) (64.16) (63.62) (66.83) (59.63)
The JPY may drop in the medium and long term as the BoJ
may expand QE in Jul
Weekly recap: The JPY range-traded as investors focused on the
European and U.S. markets, although Japan’s core inflation
(ex-sale tax) fell from 0.7% YoY to 0.5% YoY in Dec 2014.
Outlook analysis: Although falling oil prices benefit the economy,
inflation downside risks also increase, which may force the BoJ to
expand QE in Jul Moreover, funds may flow out of Japan as GPIF
increases holdings of foreign assets, which may undermine the
JPY in the medium and long term.
Technical analysis: USD/JPY may range trade between
115.57-120.83 (67.08-64.16).
120.83 (Dec 2014 top)
115.57 (Dec
2014 low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
8
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
USD/CAD
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7519 exchange rate for reference
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
USD/CAD – Daily Chart
1.3065 (2009 top)
1.4989 1.5213 1.4952 1.4231 1.4814 1.5035 1.5231
1.53
1.47
(11.62) (11.79) (11.59) (11.03) (11.48) (11.66) (11.81) (11.86) (11.39)
The CAD may be undermined as falling oil prices undermine
Canada’s economy and inflation
Weekly recap: The CAD dropped last week as Canada’s economy
shrank 0.2% MoM in Q4 2014 and slowed down from 2.3% YoY to
1.9% YoY.
Outlook analysis: Data showed that falling oil prices undermined
the economy and inflation seriously. Citi analysts expect the BoC
may keep the current interest rate until Q3 2016, which may
undermine the CAD in the medium and long term.
Technical analysis: USD/CAD may test higher to 1.3065 (5.93)
upon consolidation, with support at 1.2202-1.2506 (6.35-6.20).
1.2202-1.2506 (fibo 0.764 &
Apr 21, 2009 top)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
USD/CNY
Last Price
Last wk High
Last wk Low
0-3M
6-12M
6.2506
6.2578
6.238
6.22
6.30
The CNY may be underpinned as falling oil prices may
increase China's trade income
Weekly recap: The CNY dropped last week as China’s unofficial
PMI drop to 49.8 in Dec 2014, lower than 50 and fueling
expectations of rate cuts by China.
Outlook analysis: Although continuous falling oil prices may
increase China's trade income, which may underpin the CNY, the
government may push down the CNY as a policy tool due to low
inflation and high corporate debts. Moreover, the CNY may be
restrained as the PBoC may cut rates in the 1H 2015 while U.S.
treasury yields may rebound.
USD/CNY – Daily Chart
6.30 (6-12 month forecast)
6.22 (0-3 month
forecast)
Long-term forecast: 6.10
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 30, 2015
9
Upcoming Economic Figures and Events
The USD may be underpinned amid U.S. job data
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
January NFP
U.S.
In 11 of the past 15 years, the January headline print has been one of the most
extreme values of the year. We expect an above trend reading of 275K, reflecting
relatively benign weather and few disruptions in the survey week. Last month, the
surprising 0.2 percent decline in average hourly earnings was a one-time event
and anticipate a smart reversal. The figure may grow 0.3% this time
February 6 (Fri):
NFP
Citi forecast
Prior
275K
252K
RBA’s rate decision
Australia
Even if the RBA does not cut, we doubt AUD may manage a significant rally. The
issue is that external factors have motivated the decline in Australian rate
expectations and absent improvement in the backdrop abroad, particularly in
China, a major re-pricing looks unlikely. This means the downtrend in AUD is
likely to remain in place.
2014 Q4 unemployment rate
New
Zealand
We expect another strong employment report, given the strength of the economy,
resulting in a further drop in the unemployment rate. That said, job and wage
growth is concentrated in a few sectors so overall wage growth is likely to remain
well contained.
January unemployment rate
Canada
Observers will be keen to see if Labor Force Survey employment continued to
weaken after a 65,000 downward revision to net hiring in 2014 and a downgrade
in the December unemployment rate from 6.6 percent to 6.7 percent. Street
economists anticipate a modest 5,500 increase in January hiring and for the
jobless rate to remain at 6.7 percent.
February 3 (Tue):
RBA rate decision
Citi forecast
Prior
2.50%
2.50%
February 5 (Thur):
Unemployment rate
Citi forecast
Prior
5.2%
5.4%
February 6 (Fri):
Unemployment rate
Citi forecast
Prior
6.70%
6.60%
10
Appendix 1:
Citi Interest Rate and FX Forecast for 2015
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Citi FX Outlook Forecast
Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CNY
0-3 month
92.54
1.15
1.53
116
0.83
0.82
0.77
1.19
6.22
Source: Citi, forecast as of Jan 16, 2015
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
JPY
6-12 month
97.95
1.10
1.47
130
0.95
0.72
0.67
1.25
6.30
Forecast
downgraded
Citi FX Interest Rate Forecast
1/30/15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-0.75
2.50
3.50
0.75
2.75
Forecast
upgraded
1Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-1.50
2.50
3.50
0.75
2.50
Rate cut
expectations
2Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-1.50
2.50
3.50
0.75
2.25
3Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-1.50
2.50
3.50
0.75
2.25
Rate hike
expectations
Since weak EUR may be one of the major ECB's objectives and the ECB may implement additional easing, Citi
analysts expect the EUR may consolidate at 1.15 for the coming 0-3 months and may drop to 1.10 in the
medium and long term and parity may be approached in the coming two years.
GBP could be supported in the near term by a still strong economy and possible rate hikes in 2016 Q1. GBP/USD
may stabilize at 1.53 for the coming 0-3 months. But political risk premia may rise further out and U.K. is facing
the serious twin fiscal/ current account deficits, which may undermine the GBP. Thus, Citi analysts expect the
GBP to test lower to 1.47 for the coming 6-12 months.
The AUD may be further undermined due to strong USD, larger-than-expected speed and magnitude of decreases
in commodity prices and further deterioration of terms of trade. We expect the AUD to hover around 0.82 for the
coming 0-3 months and drop to 0.72 for the coming 6-12 months.
Since the RBNZ may defer rate hikes to Q2 2016 and commodity prices keep falling, which may be NZD-negative.
We expect the NZD to hover around 0.77 for the coming 0-3 months and drop to 0.72 for the coming 6-12
months
Since the BoJ may expand QE and GPIF is reallocating its portfolio, Citi analysts expect USD/JPY to test higher
to 130.
11
Appendix 2:
Last week’s Economic Figures
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Time
Importance
Event
Period
Actual
Survey
Prior
Monday
01/26/2015 07:50
JN
!
Trade Balance Adjusted
Dec
-¥712.1B
-¥743.1B
-¥832.5B
01/26/2015 17:00
GE
!!
IFO Business Climate
Jan
106.7
106.5
105.5
Dec
2
--
1
Tuesday
01/27/2015 08:30
AU
!
NAB Business Confidence
01/27/2015 17:30
UK
!!
GDP YoY
4Q
2.70%
2.80%
2.60%
01/27/2015 21:30
US
!!
Durable Goods Orders
Dec
-3.40%
0.60%
-2.10%
01/27/2015 22:00
US
!
S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
Nov
4.31%
4.30%
4.47%
01/27/2015 23:00
US
!!
New Home Sales MoM
Dec
11.60%
2.70%
-6.70%
01/27/2015 23:00
US
!!
Consumer Confidence Index
Jan
102.9
95.5
93.1
01/28/2015 08:30
AU
!!!
CPI YoY
4Q
1.70%
1.80%
2.30%
01/29/2015 03:00
US
!!!
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)
Jan
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
01/29/2015 04:00
NZ
!!!
RBNZ Official Cash Rate
Jan
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
01/29/2015 05:45
NZ
!!
Trade Balance
Dec
-159M
75M
-285M
01/29/2015 21:30
US
!!
Initial Jobless Claims
Jan
265K
300K
308K
01/29/2015 23:00
US
!
Pending Home Sales NSA YoY
Dec
8.50%
10.50%
1.50%
Dec
3.40%
3.50%
3.50%
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
01/30/2015 07:30
JN
!!
Jobless Rate
01/30/2015 07:30
JN
!!!
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY
Dec
2.50%
2.60%
2.70%
01/30/2015 18:00
EC
!!
Unemployment Rate
Dec
11.4%
11.50%
11.50%
01/30/2015 18:00
EC
!!!
CPI Estimate YoY
Jan
-0.60%
-0.50%
-0.20%
01/30/2015 21:30
CA
!!!
GDP YoY
Nov
1.90%
2.10%
2.30%
01/30/2015 21:30
US
!!!
GDP Annualized QoQ
4Q
2.60%
3.00%
5.00%
01/30/2015 23:00
US
!!
U. of Mich. Sentiment
Jan
98.1
98.2
98.2
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
12
Appendix 3:
Upcoming Economic Figures (Feb 2, 2015 – Feb 6, 2015)
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Time
Importance
Event
Period
Actual
Survey
Prior
Dec
Feb
Dec
Feb
----
-850M
2.50%
0.30%
-925M
2.50%
0.10%
Jan
Dec
Jan
Jan
-----
--1.10B
6.70%
5.0K
55.4
-0.64B
6.60%
-4.3K
Jan
--
51
51
4Q
--
5.30%
5.40%
Jan
Feb
Dec
----
52.8
0.50%
-£1600
52.5
0.50%
-£1406
Dec
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Dec
Jan
Jan
----------
0.20%
-0.20%
54.8
220K
56.5
--$38.0B
5.60%
231K
0.40%
0.60%
55.5
241K
56.2
265K
-$39.0B
5.60%
252K
Australia
02/03/2015 08:30
02/03/2015 11:30
02/05/2015 08:30
02/06/2015 08:30
Tue
Tue
Thur
Fri
!
!!!
!
!!!
Trade Balance
RBA Cash Rate Target
Retail Sales MoM
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
Canada
02/04/2015 23:00
02/05/2015 21:30
02/06/2015 21:30
02/06/2015 21:30
Wed
Thur
Fri
Fri
!
!!
!!
!!
Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA
Int'l Merchandise Trade
Unemployment Rate
Net Change in Employment
02/02/2015 17:00
Mon
!!
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Europe
New Zealand
02/04/2015 05:45
Wed
!!
Unemployment Rate
U.K.
02/02/2015 17:30
02/05/2015 20:00
02/06/2015 17:30
Mon
Thur
Fri
!!
!!
!!
Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA
Bank of England Bank Rate
Trade Balance
U.S.
02/02/2015 21:30
02/02/2015 21:30
02/02/2015 23:00
02/04/2015 21:15
02/04/2015 23:00
02/05/2015 21:30
02/05/2015 21:30
02/06/2015 21:30
02/06/2015 21:30
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
Mon
Mon
Mon
Wed
Wed
Thur
Thur
Fri
Fri
!!
!!
!!
!!
!
!!
!
!!!
!!!
Personal Income
Personal Spending
ISM Manufacturing
ADP Employment Change
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Initial Jobless Claims
Trade Balance
Unemployment Rate
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
13
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14