1. Art and Diseño

Currency Research Desk
Currency Insight
2013
Thursday, 29 January 2015
-1.21% EURINR YTD
USDINR YTD
, 2013
USD/INR-NSE
Contract
S2
Feb
61.4600
S1
61.5650
-18.10% GBPINR YTD
Close
61.6700
R1
61.8100
R2
61.9500
 US dollar appreciated after fed
policy statement displayed
optimism backed by strong jobs
growth.
 Euro failed to sustain its
appreciation over the last 2
days falling to 1.1285 after the
fed statement.
 Pound remained range bound
yesterday but lost steam later
in the evening trading below
1.5150.
 Concerns about international
growth added some value to
the Japanese Yen but comments
about sold jobs and weak retail
sales put pressure on the
Japanese currency.
-12.00%
Recommendation
RANGE 61.95-61.58
USDINR Jan Fut Technical Chart and Outlook
Global Markets Review
Global Currencies Markets
-9.01% JPYINR YTD
Global Commodity Markets
 Crude oil continued to slide
trading below the $45 mark
after record US stockpiles
sending most of the Asian
markets down.
 Metals bounced back in late
trade before FOMC statement
as traders took advantage of a
weaker dollar.
 Gold has taken a breather
yesterday helped by the
optimism displayed through the
FED Statement,
Global Bonds Markets
Global Equity Markets
 Indian 10 year benchmark
bond
yields
remained
unchanged at 7.706
 US equity markets slumped
1.4% as concerns grew about
international risks to the
American
earnings
and
multinational earnings.
Summary
Candle Stick
Candlestick
showcasing
continued negative bias
SMAs or EMAs
Mother Chart
Analysis
 US bond yields continued to
remain volatile as yields  Asian stocks are trading on a
negative note following the US
hovered around the 1.731
markets and also for oil trading
mark.
below the $45 mark.
Fundamental Outlook
FOMC’s unanimous agreement on Solid jobs growth has helped induce
optimism in the markets but the mention of patience and
consideration regarding international risks to the American earnings
and multinational earnings sent markets lower.
We expect Indian Equity index to open marginally lower for today’s
session. Indian rupee is likely to open on a marginally negative note
but the change is likely to be minimal. Expectations for rupee remain
range bound for the rest of the day.
Bullish/
Bearish/
Mixed
Technical Tools
Momentum
Indicators
Overall Intraday
Bias
Major EMAs of 8-13-21 days has
already turned downward
Spot price has found minor
support near 61.30 and
bounced back from there to
break the falling trendline
MACD(12/26/9) is hovering
within negative territory near
0.215 exhibiting weakness in
momentum
Price may witness minor
recovery towards 61.8/61.85
can be seen ahead of falling
further
Reference Rates
Pair
LAST
1 Day ago
% Change
USD/INR
61.41
61.46
-0.09
GBP/INR
93.18
92.77
0.45
JPY/INR 100
52.06
52.00
0.12
EUR/INR
69.82
69.03
1.15
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Currency Research Desk
1
Currency Insight
Pair
EUR/INR-NSE
GBP/INR-NSE
JPY/INR-NSE
Contract
S2
Feb
69.6850
Feb
92.9208
Feb
51.8925
S1
69.8700
93.3292
52.1275
Close
70.0550
93.7375
52.3625
R1
70.2475
94.0167
52.6175
R2
70.4400
94.2958
52.8725
Recommendation
SELL NEAR 69.98 TGT 69.2 SL 70.15
SELL NEAR 93.72 TGT 93.4 SL 93.88
RANGE 52.05-52.55
Technical Charts
USD Index
EURINR Jan Futures
GBPINR Jan Futures
JPYINR Jan Futures
Asian Currency Pairs
Currency
Debt Market Information
LAST
GIND5YR Index
INDICATORS
% Change
LAST
1 Day ago
% Change
Chinese Yuan
9.8290
9.8360
-0.07
LIBOR 1Mth
#N/A N/A
0.1680
#VALUE!
Hongkong Dollar
7.9210
7.9210
0.00
LIBOR 3Mth
#N/A N/A
0.2526
#VALUE!
Indonesian Rupiah
0.4918
0.4925
-0.14
MIBOR 1Mth
#N/A N/A
0.0100
#VALUE!
Myanmar Ringgit
16.9701
17.0715
-0.59
MIBOR 3Mth
#N/A N/A
0.0600
#VALUE!
Philipinnes Peso
1.3924
1.3931
-0.05
U.S. 5Yr Bond Yield
1.2391
1.3354
-7.21
Singapore Dollar
45.4471
45.7208
-0.60
U.S. 10Yr Bond Yield
1.7207
1.8231
-5.62
Taiwan Dollar
1.9647
1.9641
0.03
India 10Yr Bond Yield
7.7060
7.7070
-0.01
Thailand Baht
1.8859
1.8892
-0.17
Call Rate
6.9000
7.8500
-12.10
Currency Research Desk
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Currency Insight
Economic Data For The Day
Date Time
Country/Region
Event
Period
Surv(M)
Prior
01/29/15 12:30
UK
Nationwide House PX MoM
Jan
0.3%
0.2%
01/29/15 12:30
UK
Nationwide House Px NSA YoY
Jan
6.6%
7.2%
01/29/15 14:25
GE
Unemployment Change (000's)
Jan
-6K
-27K
01/29/15 14:25
GE
Unemployment Rate
Jan
6.5%
6.5%
01/29/15 14:30
EC
M3 Money Supply YoY
Dec
3.5%
3.1%
01/29/15 14:30
EC
M3 3-month average
Dec
3.1%
2.7%
01/29/15 15:30
EC
Business Climate Indicator
Jan
--
4.0%
01/29/15 15:30
EC
Industrial Confidence
Jan
-4.8
-5.2
01/29/15 15:30
EC
Consumer Confidence
Jan F
--
-8.5
01/29/15 15:30
EC
Economic Confidence
Jan
101.3
100.7
01/29/15 15:30
EC
Services Confidence
Jan
6.0
5.6
01/29/15 16:30
UK
CBI Reported Sales
Jan
--
61.0
01/29/15 18:30
GE
CPI MoM
Jan P
-0.8%
0.0%
01/29/15 18:30
GE
CPI YoY
Jan P
-0.2%
0.2%
01/29/15 19:00
US
Initial Jobless Claims
45292
--
307K
01/29/15 19:00
US
Continuing Claims
42736
--
2443K
01/29/15 20:30
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
Dec
0.5%
0.8%
01/29/15 20:30
US
Pending Home Sales NSA YoY
Dec
--
1.7%
Forward Market (Onshore & Offshore)
FORWARDS
LAST
1 Day ago
Major World Indices
% Change
Annu(%)
INDICES
LAST
1 Day ago
% Change
1-Mth Forward
61.6975
61.7927
-0.15
-0.15%
Nifty
8914.30
8910.50
0.04
3-Mth Forward
62.5313
62.6130
-0.13
-0.39%
Sensex
29559.18
29571.04
-0.04
6-Mth Forward
63.6130
63.6847
-0.11
-0.68%
Nasdaq
4637.99
4681.50
-0.93
12-Mth Forward
65.6350
65.7052
-0.11
-1.28%
Dow jones Industrial
17191.37
17387.21
-1.13
1-Mth NDF
61.5800
61.6900
-0.18
-0.18%
Shanghai Composite
3305.74
3352.96
-1.41
3-Mth NDF
62.2000
62.2000
0.00
0.00%
Nikkei 225
17795.73
17768.30
0.15
6-Mth NDF
63.0100
63.0300
-0.03
-0.19%
HangSeng
24861.81
24807.28
0.22
12-Mth NDF
64.7300
64.8000
-0.11
-1.30%
Ftse Index
6825.94
6811.61
0.21
Prepared by:Aurobinda Prasad ([email protected]) – Research Head
Jitendra K Parashar ([email protected]) – Technical Analyst
Rakesh K Chelapareddy ([email protected]) – Fundamental Analyst
Disclaimer
The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do
not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report
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Currency Insight
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