1. Art and Diseño

 30 January 2015
Focus of the Day Morning Express Indices
Alibaba (BABA.US) MIT‐‐Martina Internet Talk: SAIC event has greater social impact than real impact; Stock price may fluctuate in the short term Yuan MA Last Closing: US$89.81 [email protected]
Not Rated Counterfeiting is a long‐standing social problem and it is also reflected on the Internet platform. The Internet companies have different styles when dealing with the disputes with the authorities, such as Baidu and Tencent’s low‐key style, Cheetah’s innovative style and Alibaba’s high‐profile style. Whether the Internet companies can respond quickly and expand their influence while solving the problem is the key. Taobao does not face any suspension risk for now, as such suspension would affect the employment of over 10m people. Its future is determined by customers’ habit and market operation rules. Taobao’s operation will be determined by whether or not the interaction between the company and the authorities and the media will have an impact on the activity of buyers and small and medium sellers. The social impact of the SAIC event is greater than any impact on Taobao’s operation and performance. The development of this event is determined by users’ habit and the market’s operation rules. Baidu’s stock price decreased by 20% between 5 Jan and 20 Jan 2009 due to its medical ad event. The stock price went up during the following half year since Baidu’s performance was not impacted by that event. Alibaba’s stock price may fluctuate in the short term but this event will not affect the long‐term stock price trend, in our view. Alibaba (BABA.US) Solid 4Q14 Non‐GAAP results; cautious on lower monetization rate Yuan MA Last Closing: US$89.81 [email protected]
Not Rated Alibaba reported solid non‐GAAP results in 4Q14, with non‐GAAP diluted EPS up 13% YoY. Mobile GMV and monetization capability grew rapidly. However, lower monetization rate would impact near‐term online marketing revenue. When asked about the SAIC event, management disclosed that Alibaba has invested heavily to combat counterfeiting. Though we still like Alibaba’s long‐term value as it expands aggressively to new categories, such as pharmaceuticals and entertainment, and its cloud business expands rapidly, we are concerned about the near‐term pressure on the online marketing revenue growth on the PC side and its monetization rate. This, together with the SAIC event, may result in share price fluctuation in the near term. Close
HSI
24,596
H Shares
11,736
SH A
3,418
SH B
291
SZ A
1,598
SZ B
1,067
DJIA
17,417
S&P 500
2,021
Nasdaq
4,683
FTSE
6,811
CAC
4,631
DAX
10,738
Source: Bloomberg
1d %
-1.07
-1.90
-1.32
-0.39
-0.62
-0.32
1.31
0.95
0.98
-0.22
0.44
0.25
Ytd %
4.20
-2.07
0.86
0.15
8.10
3.67
-2.28
-1.83
-1.11
3.72
8.39
9.51
Close
49.13
1,259.85
16.99
5,484.00
118.33
1.51
1.13
3m %
-43.61
5.09
2.93
-19.29
-7.71
-5.78
-10.15
Ytd %
-14.30
6.33
8.17
-12.95
1.23
-3.21
-6.32
bps change
HIBOR
0.39
US 10 yield
1.75
Source: Bloomberg
3m
0.01
-0.55
6m
0.01
-0.81
Indicators
Brent
Gold
Silver
Copper
JPY
GBP
EURO
HSI Technical
HSI
50 d MA
200 d MA
14 d RSI
Short Sell (HK$m)
Source: Bloomberg
BOCOM Int'l Corporate Access
4 Feb
5 Feb
5 Feb
9 Feb
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
24,596
23,771
23,632
59
8,449
China National Household Paper
Industry Association
Jingdong (JD.US)
Shengmu Organic Milk (1432.HK)
Beijing distributor
"One Belt, One Road" Seminar
Morning Express 30 January 2015 Hang Seng Index (1 year)
26,000
Transportation Sector 25,000
Weekly transportation news wrap Geoffrey CHENG, CFA 24,000
[email protected]
23,000
Weekly 22,000
21,000
In terms of sector, we highlight some notable updates for the transportation industry this week as follows: Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Global dry bulk market: The Baltic Dry Bulk Index slumped on a weekly basis, reaching the lowest point since September 2012. HS China Enterprise Index (1 year)
13,000
Railway: 1) China railway freight turnover and freight volume witnessed declines in December 2014; 2) CSR and CNR announced RMB45.4 billion worth of contracts from Chinese and foreign firms, and initiated global roadshow for merger at the end of January 2015. 12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
Transportation: NDRC approved another six transportation projects with total investment of RMB55.7 billion. Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Shanghai A-shares (1 year)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Shenzhen A-shares (1 year)
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
30 January 2015
Last Closing: US$98.45
Internet Sector
Alibaba Group (BABA.US)
Not Rated
MIT--Martina Internet Talk: SAIC event has greater social impact than real impact; stock
price may fluctuate in the short term
Counterfeiting is a long-standing social problem and it is also reflected on the Internet
platform. The Internet companies have different styles when dealing with the disputes with
the authorities, such as Baidu and Tencent’s low-key style, Cheetah’s innovative style and
Alibaba’s high-profile style. Whether the Internet companies can respond quickly and
expand their influence while solving the problem is the key. Taobao does not face any
suspension risk for now, as such suspension would affect the employment of over 10m
people. Its future is determined by customers’ habit and market operation rules. Taobao’s
operation will be determined by whether or not the interaction between the company and
the authorities and the media will have an impact on the activity of buyers and small and
medium sellers. The social impact of the SAIC event is greater than any impact on
Taobao’s operation and performance. The development of this event is determined by
users’ habit and the market’s operation rules. Baidu’s stock price decreased by 20%
between 5 Jan and 20 Jan 2009 due to its medical ad event. The stock price went up
during the following half year since Baidu’s performance was not impacted by that
event. Alibaba’s stock price may fluctuate in the short term but this event will not affect
the long-term stock price trend, in our view.
Long-standing social problems are reflected on and magnified by Internet platforms
during specific periods of time
Disputes between Internet companies and the authorities are often caused by a specific
social problem. Such problem is magnified by Internet platforms, such as Baidu and
Taobao, during specific periods, such as the CNY holiday.
Low-key Baidu: On 5 Jan 2009, CCTV exposed that Baidu medical ads contained
false information. Baidu did not respond to this directly, but made an investment
on CCTV ads and Mr. Li Yanhong participated in the 2009 CCTV Spring Festival Gala.
(See details in the report Seven ministries jointly regulated the Internet, published
on 21 Jan 2009.)
，
，
，
，
，，
，
，
The Internet companies have different
styles when dealing with disputes
with the authorities, such as Baidu
and Tencent’s low-key style,
Cheetah’s innovative style and
Alibaba’s high-profile style. Whether
the Internet companies can respond
quickly and expand their influence
while solving the problem is the key.
Taobao does not face any suspension
risk for now, as such suspension
would affect the employment of over
10m people. Its future is determined
by customers’ habit and market
operation rules.
Stock price may fluctuate in the
short-term, but the long-term trend
will not be affected.
Stock data
52w High
52w Low
Market cap (US$m)
Issued shares (m)
Avg daily vol (m)
1-mth change（%）
YTD change（%）
50d MA
200d MA
14-day RSI
Source: Bloomberg
1 Year Performance chart
High-profile Alibaba: On 28 Jan 2015, the State Administration for Industry and
Commerce (SAIC) of China published ”White paper related to the administrative
guide to the Alibaba Group” and pointed out 5 problems of Alibaba’s e-commerce
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
baba us Equity
80%
AHXH Index
MXCN Index
60%
40%
20%
0%
J-14
Innovative Cheetah: The Ministry of Railways asked KIS (now named Cheetah) to
terminate the train ticket purchasing service in Cheetah browser. Cheetah
responded actively later on and launched Cheetah bus to send workers back to
their hometowns during the CNY. (See details in the reports MOR incident provides
a wonderful opportunity for promotion of Cheetah, published on 21 Jan 2013, and
Train-ticket event attested to the company’s innovation capability; lift TP, published
on 2 Feb 2013.)
120.00
82.81
259,097
2,465
14.54
-8.68
N/A
102.29
N/A
47.59
A-14
J-14
S-14
-20%
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Ma Yuan (Martina), Ph.D
[email protected]
Tel: (8610) 8800 9788–8039
GuXinyu (Connie), CPA
[email protected]
Tel: (8610) 8800 9788-8045
D-14
30 January 2015
Last Closing: US$98.45
Internet Sector
Alibaba Group (BABA.US)
Not Rated
Solid 4Q14 non-GAAP results; cautious on lower monetization rate
Solid non-GAAP results in 4Q14; non-GAAP diluted EPS up 13% YoY:
*
*
*
*
*
，
，
，
，
，，
，
，
Solid non-GAAP results in 4Q14;
non-GAAP diluted EPS up 13% YoY
For the quarter ended Dec 2014, Alibaba’s revenue grew by 56% QoQ and 40% YoY to
RMB26.2bn. About 24.5% of the revenue came from mobile devices.
Mobile GMV and monetization
capability grew rapidly. However, lower
monetization rate would impact
near-term online marketing revenue.
Non-GAAP EBITDA margin was 58% in 4Q14 compared with 60% in 4Q13 and 51% in
3Q14. The YoY decrease was primarily due to the consolidation of newly acquired
businesses, mainly UCWeb Inc. and AutoNavi, and investments in new business
initiatives, such as mobile operating system, local services and digital entertainment.
The QoQ increase in non-GAAP EBITDA margin was due to seasonality.
Though we like Alibaba’s long-term
value as it expands to new categories,
such as pharmaceuticals and digital
entertainment, and its cloud business
expands rapidly, we are concerned
about the near-term pressure on the
online marketing revenue growth on the
PC side and its monetization rate.
Net income in 4Q14 was RMB5.98bn, a decrease by 28% YoY. The decrease was due
to 1) an increase in SBC expense; 2) a RMB830mn one-time charge for financing
related fees; and 3) an increase in income tax expense. Non-GAAP net income
increased by 25% YoY to RMB13.1bn in 4Q14.
Non-GAAP diluted EPS in 4Q14 was RMB5.05, marking an increase by 13% YoY. The
lower growth rate of non-GAAP diluted EPS compared to that of non-GAAP net
income was due to an increase in diluted shares outstanding in the quarter following
the completion of IPO.
Annual active buyers reached 334mn in 4Q14, up by 45% YoY and 9% QoQ. In 4Q14,
mobile MAU increased by 48 million sequentially and 95% YoY, reaching 265mn.
Mobile GMV and monetization capability grew rapidly. Quarterly GMV transacted on
China retail marketplaces reached RMB787bn, up by 49% YoY and 42% QoQ, attributable
to an increase in active buyers and partially to category expansion like auction
transactions. Taobao Marketplace contributed RMB494bn, or 63%, of the total China
retail marketplaces GMV; Tmall contributed RMB293bn, or 37%, compared with 32% in
3Q14. Mobile GMV grew by 213% YoY to RMB327bn, accounting for 42% of the total
GMV, compared with 36% in 3Q14 and 20% in 4Q13. The mobile monetization rate
increased to 1.96% from 1.87% in 3Q14 and 1.12% in 4Q13. The increase was mainly due
to increased mobile traffic as well as changes in buyers’ purchase behavior.
This, together with the SAIC event, may
result in share price fluctuation in the
near term.
Stock data
52w High
52w Low
Market cap (US$m)
Issued shares (m)
Avg daily vol (m)
1-mth change（%）
YTD change（%）
50d MA
200d MA
14-day RSI
Source: Bloomberg
120.00
82.81
259,097
2,465
14.54
-8.68
N/A
102.29
N/A
47.59
1 Year Performance chart
baba us Equity
80%
AHXH Index
MXCN Index
60%
40%
However, lower monetization rate would impact near-term online marketing revenue.
The blended monetization rate for the China Commerce Retail business was 2.7%, which
was lower YoY compared with 3.05%. This was due to user experience enhancement
efforts with lower CPC and a larger percentage of GMV coming from mobile, which had a
lower monetization rate. In the short run, the growth rate of online marketing revenue
may be adversely affected, while the improved user experience and strong user
momentum in mobile will bring value in the long run.
20%
0%
J-14
A-14
J-14
S-14
-20%
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Ma Yuan (Martina), Ph.D
Zero tolerance for counterfeiting. Management disclosed that over the past 2 years,
Alibaba invested over RMB1bn, and hired over 1000 employees, to combat counterfeit
products. Alibaba values integrity and the health of marketplace. It will continue to work
with the government and brand owners, and apply data technology, to fight against
counterfeiting.
Comments: Although we like Alibaba’s long-term value as it expands to new categories,
such as pharmaceuticals and digital entertainment, and its cloud business expands
rapidly, we are concerned about the near-term pressure on the online marketing
revenue growth on the PC side and its monetization rate. This, together with the SAIC
event, may result in share price fluctuation in the near term.
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
[email protected]
Tel: (8610) 8800 9788–8039
GuXinyu (Connie), CPA
[email protected]
Tel: (8610) 8800 9788-8045
D-14
30 January 2015
Transportation Weekly
Transportation
Transportation Sector
Weekly transportation news wrap
The Baltic Dry Bulk Index slumped on a weekly basis, reaching the lowest point
since September 2012. As of 28th January 2015, the weak rebound trend of global
and domestic dry bulk markets of the previous two weeks reversed, with BDI
dropping 13.5% WoW, or 43.4% YoY, to 666, and China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index
(CDFI) down 6.6% WoW. The recent weak demand for both global and domestic dry
bulk commodities continued to drag down the freight rates, in our view. The decline
last week was largely a result of weak freight rate performance of Capesize and
Panamax vessels. The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) fell by 14.5% WoW with freight
rates of Panamax vessels in the domestic market falling 14.3% WoW. The Baltic
Capesize Index (BCI) tumbled to 785, slumping by 19.2% WoW, or 50.2% YoY, while
the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) edged down 8.2% WoW, or 42.7% YoY, to 618.
China railway freight turnover and freight volume witnessed declines in December
2014. National Railway Administration reported railway freight turnover and freight
volume of December 2014. Railway freight turnover reached 232.3 billion ton-km in
December, representing a decrease of 15.0% YoY, or 1.4% MoM. For the full year,
China railway freight turnover amounted to 2,753 billion ton-km, falling by 5.2% YoY.
Similarly, railway freight volume fell by 12.2% YoY, or 1.2% MoM, to 313.7 million
tonnes in December 2014. Both railway freight turnover and freight volume saw
accelerated MoM decline in December (in November, railway freight turnover and
railway freight volume decreased by 6.3% YoY and 6.4% YoY, respectively), indicating
weak domestic demand, in our view.
China train makers CSR and CNR signed RMB45.4 billion worth of contracts with
Chinese and foreign firms. Based on the announcements released by CSR and CNR,
CSR signed 14 contracts worth RMB21.1 billion, equivalent to 21.6% of its FY13
revenue. CNR’s deals include sales and maintenance of high-speed trains and subways
from Chinese and foreign companies. CNR is holding another 30 contracts worth
RMB24.3 billion, equivalent to 25% of its FY13 revenue. CSR and CNR initiated
roadshow for the merger in the last week of January 2015.
NDRC approved another six transportation projects with total investment of
RMB55.7 billion. According to news reports, during January 26- 28, 2015, NDRC
approved six more infrastructure projects including the expansion of Hangzhou-Nanjing
Highway Zhejiang section, Shangrila-Lijiang Highway, Tieling-Benxi Highway, the
expansion of Zunyi-Guiyang Highway, Longnan airport, and Wugang airport with
investments of RMB2.95 billion, RMB20.32 billion, RMB7.97 billion, RMB22.35 billion,
RMB1.19 billion, and RMB971 million, respectively. As of 28th January 2015, NDRC has
approved eight transportation projects this year, including Mile-Mengzi Railway Project
and Jinan urban rail construction plan, with total investment of RMB108.89 billion.
Since October 2014, the approval of transportation investments has been increased
significantly to boost economic growth. We expect the growth of transportation
investment to continue in 2015.
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
1-Year Sector Performance
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Jan-14
Sector performance
HSI Index performance
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Source: Bloomberg
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
[email protected]
Tel: (852)2977 9380
Fay Zhou
[email protected]
Tel: (852) 2977 9381
Jan-15
Morning Express Market Review
30 January 2015 Hong Kong stocks fell on Thursday, dragged by the weakness in overseas markets. The Hang Seng Index slumped 265.96 points, or 1.07%, to close at 24,595.85. Ping An (2318.HK) was the biggest blue‐chip decliner, down 2.24%. Brokers fell on media reports that CSRC will start a new round of investigation on margin trading activities. CITIC Securities (6030.HK) dropped 2.8% while Haitong Securities (6837.HK) lost 3.2%. Mainland banks also retreated. MSB (1988.HK) slumped 4.5% and CMB (3968.HK) lost 2.2%. Sands China (1928.HK) shed 1% as 4Q adjusted property EBITDA was lower than estimated. Peer Galaxy Entertainment (27.HK) fell 2.3%. Shanghai Electric (2727.HK) rose 2.3% and CGN Power (1816.HK) increased 4.4%, as China will promote railway and nuclear power companies’ overseas investment. US stocks finished with solid gains on Thursday. The S&P 500 rose 19.1 points, or 1%, to 2,021.26. The DJIA added 225.48 points, or 1.3%, to 17,416.85. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.1% to 368.76. News Reaction It was reported that 26 provinces in Chinese Mainland reduced the targets of economic growth for 2015. As reported, among 28 provinces which had announced their targets of economic growth for 2015, except Shanghai which no longer set a target and Tibet maintained the same goal, the remaining 26 provinces reduced the targeted economic growth rate in 2015. It was rumored that subscription for a new batch of A shares is expected to launch next week. As reported, approval will be granted for subscription of new shares from approximately 20 companies next week and the subscription is set to commence next week. MOF: to gradually reduce quota for metal exports. As expressed by the spokesperson of MOF on Thursday, upon cancellation of bauxite exports quota, the export quota of metals will also decrease gradually. According to a spokesman of the department of treaty and law of MOF in response to the cancellation of the management of product export quotas such as domestic bauxite in January, the cancellation of export quotas for bauxite, tungsten, molybdenum and other products was to be in line with the reform of the management regime of resources products such as domestic bauxite, a policy adjustment by taking into account relevant decisions of WTO. MOF: to strengthen the rectification of electricity operators. As expressed by Shen Danyang, the spokesperson of MOF on Thursday, SAIC reported the monitoring report of online purchases in the second half of 2014, and relevant enterprises objected. MOF has been highly concerned and requested stronger rectification of electricity operators. The Chinese authorities will cease the grant of approval of coal mine projects in Eastern China. China is aspiring to cope with the drastic fall of prices due to overcapacity. Wang Xianzheng, the chairman of China Coal Industry Association said that the government will no longer approve coal mine projects in Eastern China on Thursday. Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
Morning Express 30 January 2015 Economic releases for this week ‐ USA Date Time
Event
27-Jan
Economic releases for this week ‐ China Survey
Prior
Durable goods order
0.5%
-0.9%
27-Jan
27-Jan
New Home sales (k)
Consumer Confidence
450.0
95.0
438.0
92.6
28-Jan
MBA mortgage applications
-
14.2%
-
307.0
Date Time
Event
Survey
Prior
29-Jan
Initial jobless claims (k)
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
BOCOM Research Latest Reports Data
Report
Analyst
29 Jan 201 5
29 Jan 201 5
The Link REIT (823.HK) - A pricy ticket to a greenfield project
New World Development (17.HK) - Securing urban landbank at a low cost
Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
29 Jan 201 5
China Market Strategy - Margin of Danger
Hao Hong, CFA
28 Jan 201 5
28 Jan 201 5
Energy Sector - Bocom Energy Weekly
Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) - Robust outlook expected for 2015
Fei Wu, Tony Liu
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
27 Jan 201 5
Kingsoft (3888.HK) - Raise Kingsoft Cloud valuation; lift TP and upgrade to Buy
Ma Yuan (Martina), Ph.D, Gu Xinyu (Connie), CPA
27 Jan 2015
27 Jan 2015
Container Shipping Sector - Weekly container shipping commentary
Hang Lung Properties (101.HK) - Well-positioned against challenges
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
26 Jan 2015
Property Sector - HK/China Property Weekly 20150123
Luella Guo, Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
23 Jan 2015
23 Jan 2015
Transportation Sector - Weekly transportation news wrap
Daphne (210.HK) - Another year of profit warning; de-rating imminent
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA, Fay Zhou
Phoebe Wong
23 Jan 2015
Austar Lifesciences Limited (6118.HK) - Revisiting our forecasts
Milo Liu
23 Jan 2015
23 Jan 2015
Sinotrans Limited (598.HK) - Robust fundamentals unchanged in 2015
GOME (493.HK) - China's leading consumer appliances retailer with strong O2O growth; Initiate with Buy
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
Anita Chu, Phoebe Wong
22 Jan 2015
Tencent (700.HK) - Moments feed ads indicate the commercialization of Weixin
Ma Yuan (Martina), Ph.D, Gu Xinyu (Connie), CPA
22 Jan 2015
21 Jan 2015
Vipshop (VIPS.US) - High growth story but largely priced in; initiate with Neutral
Orient Overseas International Limited (316 HK) – Company Update – Cautiously positive on lower bunker
prices
Phoebe Wong, Anita Chu
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
21 Jan 2015
20 Jan 2015
Energy Sector – Bocom Energy Weekly
Container Shipping Sector - Weekly container shipping commentary
Fei Wu, Tony Liu
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
20 Jan 2015
Energy Sector - Lower oil erodes benefit of higher Special Upstream Levy threshold; New crude oil price
forecast spells caution and leads to downgrade
Fei Wu, Tony Liu
19 Jan 2015
China South City Holdings Limited (1668.HK) - Slowdown in property sales, but new businesses still on track Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
Source: Company data, BOCOM International
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
Morning Express 30 January 2015 Hang Seng Index Constituents Company
name
Cheung Kong
Hang Lung Proper
Hengan Intl
China Shenhua-H
Hang Seng Bk
China Res Land
Cosco Pac Ltd
Henderson Land D
Aia Group Ltd
Hutchison Whampo
Kunlun Energy Co
Ind & Comm Bk-H
China Merchant
Want Want China
Sun Hung Kai Pro
New World Dev
Belle Internatio
China Coal Ene-H
Swire Pacific-A
Sands China Ltd
Clp Hldgs Ltd
Bank East Asia
Ping An Insura-H
Boc Hong Kong Ho
China Life Ins-H
Citic Pacific
China Res Enterp
Cathay Pac Air
Hong Kg China Gs
Tingyi Hldg Co
Esprit Hldgs
Bank Of Commun-H
China Petroleu-H
Hong Kong Exchng
Bank Of China-H
Wharf Hldg
Li & Fung Ltd
Hsbc Hldgs Plc
Power Assets Hol
Mtr Corp
China Overseas
Tencent Holdings
China Unicom Hon
Sino Land Co
China Res Power
Petrochina Co-H
Cnooc Ltd
China Const Ba-H
China Mobile
Lenovo Group Ltd
Hang Seng Index
BBG
code
1 HK
101 HK
1044 HK
1088 HK
11 HK
1109 HK
1199 HK
12 HK
1299 HK
13 HK
135 HK
1398 HK
144 HK
151 HK
16 HK
17 HK
1880 HK
1898 HK
19 HK
1928 HK
2 HK
23 HK
2318 HK
2388 HK
2628 HK
267 HK
291 HK
293 HK
3 HK
322 HK
330 HK
3328 HK
386 HK
388 HK
3988 HK
4 HK
494 HK
5 HK
6 HK
66 HK
688 HK
700 HK
762 HK
83 HK
836 HK
857 HK
883 HK
939 HK
941 HK
992 HK
Share
price
(HK$)
145.40
22.75
88.80
21.15
135.90
20.20
11.26
55.50
45.10
101.90
8.14
5.60
28.55
9.21
128.20
9.12
8.84
4.24
104.40
39.20
69.50
32.25
82.95
26.70
30.75
13.36
17.40
18.00
17.88
18.54
8.75
6.45
6.17
178.30
4.35
62.70
7.61
72.30
82.25
34.60
22.90
134.60
11.74
13.08
21.85
8.42
10.20
6.25
104.30
10.04
Mkt
cap
(HK$m)
336,770
102,041
108,725
468,099
259,819
131,922
33,109
166,519
543,235
434,437
65,709
1,995,326
73,169
121,535
361,933
81,108
74,559
91,125
151,032
316,254
175,588
75,686
783,113
282,293
1,210,834
332,708
42,132
70,809
187,956
103,894
17,005
533,683
866,596
208,284
1,483,759
189,989
63,623
1,389,339
175,543
201,598
187,184
1,261,293
281,137
79,318
104,822
2,585,032
455,404
1,572,616
2,133,322
111,531
5d
chg
(%)
2.8
4.8
6.1
-2.1
3.0
-3.6
-0.7
4.1
0.1
3.7
0.9
-2.6
3.4
-1.9
5.1
0.3
-3.4
-4.7
2.7
3.6
1.7
3.5
-2.8
0.8
-3.1
-1.6
2.5
4.3
1.4
4.3
7.8
-4.2
-1.0
0.2
-2.5
3.6
3.8
0.6
5.6
4.4
-5.2
2.3
-3.0
5.1
3.8
-3.2
-4.0
-2.6
1.0
-2.5
Ytd
chg
(%)
11.6
4.6
9.6
-7.8
5.2
-1.2
2.2
2.2
4.5
14.2
11.1
-1.1
9.4
-9.9
8.4
2.2
1.4
-12.8
3.4
2.8
3.3
3.2
4.9
2.9
1.0
1.1
7.1
6.5
0.7
4.6
-5.7
-10.9
-1.3
3.8
-0.5
12.0
4.8
-2.3
9.3
8.8
-0.7
19.6
12.9
4.5
9.3
-2.1
-2.3
-1.9
15.2
-1.6
24,595.9 15,278,428
0.3
4.2
Source: Bloomberg
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
–––– 52-week ––––
Hi
Lo
(HK$)
(HK$)
152.00
105.95
26.45
19.80
88.90
74.05
24.40
19.12
136.00
117.60
23.60
13.62
11.92
9.40
57.20
36.46
46.45
34.65
108.50
85.90
14.02
6.88
5.90
4.33
29.10
22.75
13.10
8.92
129.00
90.35
10.48
7.15
10.00
7.00
5.44
3.72
108.00
80.55
68.00
34.50
69.50
56.00
34.45
28.50
88.70
55.60
27.95
21.50
32.80
19.72
16.88
9.35
24.55
15.12
18.30
13.56
18.90
13.91
23.25
16.02
15.24
8.10
7.36
4.53
8.23
5.74
189.00
112.80
4.54
3.03
63.45
46.35
10.70
7.06
84.90
69.75
82.35
57.85
34.60
26.55
26.70
17.52
138.00
93.00
14.22
9.03
14.16
9.83
24.90
17.56
11.70
7.31
15.88
9.72
6.62
4.89
105.10
63.65
12.70
7.62
25,363.0
21,137.6
–––––––––– PE –––––––––––
2014A
2015E
2016E
(X)
(X)
(X)
7.8
9.4
10.0
8.7
15.7
16.4
30.1
29.0
23.9
7.9
8.7
8.5
15.6
15.6
14.0
7.7
10.5
8.9
14.5
12.9
11.3
9.3
17.8
17.4
28.5
21.9
19.5
9.2
12.1
12.7
10.4
10.6
10.9
5.7
5.7
5.4
16.5
16.9
15.4
22.5
22.8
19.5
10.3
16.4
15.3
6.9
11.0
10.1
N/A
13.3
12.7
32.9
53.4
30.5
11.9
15.3
13.9
15.4
15.9
16.6
19.5
16.6
16.3
10.9
11.7
11.6
16.7
13.8
12.9
12.2
11.5
10.5
26.1
19.0
16.6
9.5
7.6
6.9
22.9
92.6
54.2
24.1
20.4
12.0
27.0
25.6
23.8
32.1
29.9
24.2
80.1
74.2
33.3
6.0
5.9
5.7
8.5
9.6
13.8
44.4
40.5
30.2
5.8
5.9
5.5
8.0
16.2
14.3
9.8
16.1
14.0
11.7
10.7
10.1
2.8
20.0
19.6
13.6
19.0
18.7
7.5
8.2
7.1
45.7
42.3
32.2
17.9
17.4
15.4
8.8
14.9
14.5
9.0
8.7
8.0
9.4
10.6
15.8
6.6
7.1
12.5
5.5
5.4
5.2
14.6
15.6
15.4
14.9
17.7
15.2
10.4
11.4
10.3
Yield
P/B
(%)
2.4
3.3
2.1
5.3
4.0
2.2
2.7
1.8
1.0
2.3
2.8
N/A
2.7
2.9
2.6
4.5
N/A
2.4
3.4
4.4
3.7
3.4
1.0
3.8
1.2
2.0
1.4
1.4
1.8
1.5
0.8
N/A
4.8
2.0
5.6
2.8
6.2
5.3
3.1
2.7
2.1
0.2
1.7
3.8
3.4
4.7
5.6
6.0
3.0
2.4
(X)
0.9
0.8
6.6
1.2
2.4
1.4
0.9
0.7
2.5
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
8.3
0.8
0.5
2.3
0.5
0.7
7.8
1.9
1.1
2.6
1.7
2.9
0.6
0.8
1.2
3.7
4.4
1.0
0.8
1.0
10.1
1.0
0.7
1.7
0.9
1.4
1.3
1.6
13.6
1.0
0.7
1.6
1.1
1.0
1.1
2.1
4.4
3.5
1.4
Morning Express 30 January 2015 China Ent Index Constituents –––– 52-week ––––
––––––––––– PE –––––––––––
2014A
2015E
2016E
Company
BBG
Share
Mkt
5d
Ytd
name
code
price
(HK$)
cap
(HK$m)
chg
(%)
chg
(%)
Hi
(HK$)
Lo
(HK$)
(X)
(X)
Shandong Weig-H
1066 HK
6.12
27,395.40
0.5
-2.2
10.2
5.7
72.1
22.2
China Shenhua-H
1088 HK
21.15
468,098.68
-2.1
-7.8
24.4
19.1
7.9
8.7
Sinopharm-H
China Shipping-H
1099 HK
1138 HK
28.40
5.67
78,585.50
29,940.52
-1.0
-4.1
3.5
6.6
34.5
6.3
19.7
4.0
22.9
N/A
Zoomlion Heavy-H
1157 HK
4.90
54,751.26
-5.8
-17.1
6.5
3.5
Yanzhou Coal-H
Agricultural-H
1171 HK
1288 HK
6.31
3.79
61,838.78
1,393,758.14
-1.6
-3.1
-4.0
-3.3
7.3
4.1
4.9
3.0
New China Life-H
1336 HK
44.65
182,409.88
0.0
14.0
45.3
Ind & Comm Bk-H
Tsingtao Brew-H
1398 HK
168 HK
5.60
52.60
1,995,326.31
69,987.13
-2.6
-2.4
-1.1
0.0
5.9
64.0
China Com Cons-H
1800 HK
8.51
223,555.79
-6.4
-8.8
10.2
4.9
8.6
China Coal Ene-H
China Minsheng-H
1898 HK
1988 HK
4.24
9.50
91,124.95
391,172.25
-4.7
-5.6
-12.8
-6.9
5.4
10.7
3.7
5.9
32.9
5.8
Guangzhou Auto-H
2238 HK
7.13
59,371.58
0.7
1.0
9.9
6.6
11.7
Ping An Insura-H
Picc Property &
2318 HK
2328 HK
82.95
15.06
783,112.65
223,317.38
-2.8
0.8
4.9
-0.1
88.7
16.2
55.6
9.4
16.7
15.6
Great Wall Mot-H
2333 HK
43.95
156,943.72
4.5
-0.3
45.7
26.1
Weichai Power-H
Aluminum Corp-H
2338 HK
2600 HK
30.80
3.62
64,268.29
81,453.94
-3.4
-7.9
-5.8
0.8
34.9
4.3
25.8
2.5
China Pacific-H
2601 HK
37.80
379,301.66
-1.4
-4.1
42.0
China Life Ins-H
China Oilfield-H
2628 HK
2883 HK
30.75
12.96
1,210,834.29
94,307.34
-3.1
-6.4
1.0
-3.7
32.8
23.4
Zijin Mining-H
China Natl Bdg-H
2899 HK
3323 HK
2.43
7.51
85,783.50
40,546.69
-4.7
-2.2
10.5
-0.4
2.7
8.4
Bank Of Commun-H
3328 HK
6.45
533,682.69
-4.2
-10.9
358 HK
386 HK
12.56
6.17
62,599.99
866,596.49
-4.3
-1.0
-5.6
-1.3
Jiangxi Copper-H
China Petroleu-H
China Rail Gr-H
Yield
P/B
(X)
(%)
(X)
18.6
1.3
2.4
8.5
5.3
1.2
20.7
52.5
17.4
15.4
1.1
0.0
2.7
0.7
16.5
19.6
14.9
3.8
0.7
6.8
5.5
15.3
5.4
18.6
5.0
0.4
N/A
0.6
1.0
21.1
18.7
15.0
13.8
0.4
2.6
4.3
50.4
5.7
28.8
5.7
28.0
5.4
24.8
N/A
N/A
1.1
3.7
8.2
7.5
2.7
1.1
53.4
5.5
30.5
5.2
2.4
2.1
0.5
1.2
10.7
8.3
3.1
1.1
13.8
12.7
12.9
11.8
1.0
1.8
2.6
2.6
13.3
13.3
10.0
2.3
3.7
9.5
N/A
10.1
N/A
10.5
N/A
1.0
N/A
1.6
1.0
23.6
25.8
22.4
19.0
1.3
2.6
19.7
11.7
26.1
6.1
19.0
6.4
16.6
7.2
1.2
4.1
2.9
1.1
1.6
6.7
20.0
5.3
17.3
5.7
17.2
5.4
N/A
2.6
1.6
0.9
7.4
4.5
6.0
5.9
5.7
N/A
0.8
15.2
8.2
11.6
5.7
9.8
8.5
11.9
9.6
13.2
13.8
4.9
4.8
0.8
1.0
390 HK
5.78
208,441.34
-3.5
-9.4
6.7
3.0
10.0
9.4
8.5
1.4
1.1
3968 HK
3988 HK
17.28
4.35
447,218.55
1,483,758.67
-5.7
-2.5
-11.2
-0.5
20.0
4.5
12.1
3.0
6.1
5.8
6.0
5.9
5.5
5.5
4.5
5.6
1.2
1.0
Dongfeng Motor-H
489 HK
11.44
98,568.42
-1.7
4.2
15.2
9.6
5.9
6.2
5.9
2.0
1.1
Citic Securiti-H
Haitong Securi-H
6030 HK
6837 HK
24.75
16.68
373,240.13
228,258.27
-3.1
-2.8
-15.2
-14.5
34.0
23.2
13.7
9.5
27.6
30.5
23.4
18.6
18.9
14.8
N/A
0.9
2.4
2.0
China Telecom-H
728 HK
4.54
367,432.97
-1.9
0.0
5.2
3.1
15.9
16.0
14.4
2.6
1.0
Air China Ltd-H
Petrochina Co-H
753 HK
857 HK
7.09
8.42
116,112.33
2,585,031.76
-1.7
-3.2
13.1
-2.1
7.5
11.7
4.2
7.3
26.7
9.4
21.6
10.6
11.3
15.8
0.8
4.7
1.4
1.1
Huaneng Power-H
902 HK
10.64
148,956.32
-3.8
1.5
11.6
6.1
10.5
9.8
9.2
4.4
1.9
Anhui Conch-H
China Longyuan-H
914 HK
916 HK
26.40
8.39
133,633.94
67,425.30
-3.8
-2.0
-9.1
4.0
35.7
10.0
24.0
7.1
9.3
27.9
9.7
21.7
9.1
15.2
1.6
0.7
1.9
1.7
China Const Ba-H
939 HK
6.25
1,572,615.52
-2.6
-1.9
6.6
4.9
5.5
5.4
5.2
6.0
1.1
China Citic Bk-H
998 HK
5.75
363,134.81
-0.5
-7.6
6.3
3.6
5.3
5.3
5.0
N/A
0.9
11,736
4,799,723
-2.6
-2.1
12,400.4
9,159.8
8.3
8.0
7.1
3.9
1.3
China Merch Bk-H
Bank Of China-H
Hang Seng China Ent Indx
Source: Bloomberg
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Morning Express 30 January 2015 BOCOM International 11/F, Man Yee Building, 68 Des Voeux Road, Central, Hong Kong Main: + 852 3710 3328 Rating System Company Rating Fax: + 852 3798 0133
www.bocomgroup.com Sector Rating
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Economics
hao.hong Miaoxian LI (86) 10 8800 9788 ‐ 8043 miaoxian.li
Oil & Gas/ Gas Utilities
(852) 2977 9212 yangqingli Fei WU (852) 2977 9392 fei.wu
Shanshan LI, CFA (86) 10 8800 9788 ‐ 8058 lishanshan Tony LIU (852) 2977 9390 xutong.liu
Li WAN, CFA (86) 10 8800 9788 ‐ 8051 Wanli Consumer Discretionary Property
Phoebe WONG (852) 2977 9391 phoebe.wong Anita CHU (852) 2977 9205 anita.chu Consumer Staples Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM (852) 2977 9235 alfred.lau
Luella GUO (852) 2977 9211 luella.guo
Renewable Energy
(852) 2977 9221 summer.wang Shawn WU (852) 2977 9386 shawn.wu Healthcare (852) 2977 9387 Insurance & Brokerage milo.liu Technology
(852) 2977 9389 liwenbing Jennifer ZHANG (852) 2977 9250 yufan.zhang Zhiwu LI Jerry LI louis.sun
(86) 10 8800 9788 ‐ 8039 yuan.ma Connie GU, CPA (86) 10 8800 9788 ‐ 8045 conniegu Metals & Mining (852) 2977 9243 Miles XIE (852) 2977 9209 lizhiwu
(852) 2977 9216 miles.xie
Transportation & Industrial
Yuan MA, PhD Jovi LI (86) 21 6065 3606 Telecom & Small/ Mid‐Caps
Milo LIU Internet Louis SUN Summer WANG jovi.li Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
Geoffrey CHENG, CFA (852) 2977 9380 geoffrey.cheng
Fay ZHOU (852) 2977 9381 fay.zhou
Automobile
Wei YAO (86) 21 6065 3675 wei.yao
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