1. Art and Diseño

Potato Market Dynamics Report
KEY POINTS
 GB average net yields are estimated at 47.4t/ha
and total 2014 production at 5.74 Mt from an
area of 121,100ha.
 Estimated 3.5Mt of GB production in store as at
end-November 2014 - 61% of total production.
 The GB free-buy average price reached its lowest
point so far this season of £77.43/t in w/e 16 Jan.
 Total fresh retail volumes rose 2% (year-on-year
(YOY) comparison of latest quarter to 4 Jan) but
are still down 2% for the 52 weeks compared with
the previous year.
 Ample North-Western European supply with
production over 28Mt (vs. 24Mt five-year
average).
30 January 2015
Supply and demand analysis
- The final estimate of production is up
5.74Mt, up
circa 30,000t on the previous estimate.
almost 3%
▲ on 2013’s - Average yield is estimated at 47.4t/ha,
up from 45.8t/ha in 2013. Planted area is
5.58Mt
at 121,100 ha, down 1% from last year.
Total exports - Fresh exports were 75,000t, down
down 5% vs. 24,000t on last year. 34% of exported
UK trade
▼ same period potatoes were fresh compared to 42%
(Six months
in 2013 at last year. Processed potatoes have
Jun-Nov ‘14,
220,000t. become the dominant export category
HMR&C, to
Total imports at 83,000t, having overtaken fresh.
nearest
down
17% vs. - 87% of imports were in processed form
‘000t in raw
same
period (715,000t vs. 794,000t in 2013). Fresh
▼
equivalent)
in 2013 at imports have almost halved at 99,000t
818,000t. compared to 181,000t in 2013.
GB 2014/15
production
estimate
Total frozen
retail
▼
demand
(12 w/e 4
Jan ‘15,
KANTAR
▼
Worldpanel)
- Frozen chips (the majority of the total
frozen category) are down 1% by volume
and 4% by value in the latest 12-week
period compared to the same period last
year.
Value down
- Frozen potato products (total frozen
4% YOY at
excluding frozen chips) fell 3% by volume
£172m.
and 4% by value.
Volume
down 2%
YOY at
117,000t.
Even larger EU 2014/15 crops weighing on prices
Production estimates in North-Western Europe, already known to be strong, have seen upwards revisions following
the receipt of additional yield data - now exceeding 28Mt from a record 547,000ha. In GB, 2014/15 crop yield
estimates are slightly higher too which has further increased production compared with last season to 5.74 Mt,
(approx. 160,000t more than 2013/14).
Ex-farm free-buy prices, both in GB and abroad, have been weak reflecting the supply situation. The GB weekly freebuy price fell to a new season low w/e 16 Jan, hitting £77.43/t compared to £152.09/t at the same point last season.
This is the lowest it has reached since Autumn 2009, and the lowest for the time of year since the 2002/03 season.
While there has been less need for imports, ample supplies across Europe have also made exports challenging.
The value of most potato categories has continued to decline in the 12-week period, reflecting slowly falling average
costs of potatoes and potato products for consumers. Frozen potatoes have seen YOY declines in volume and value
in the latest quarter, against the 52-week YOY trend (+1%). The volume of chilled potatoes (+16%) have helped the
segment increase value by 12%, while total fresh potatoes have seen an overall value decline as volumes have risen.
FREE-BUY PRICES
(w/e 28 Nov 14 - 23 Jan 15, AHDB/PCL)
GB weekly overall (free-buy and contract
trade) average price trends £/t
- Given the size of the crop this season, interest in free£400
2011/12
2012/13
buy material looks set to continue as a supplement to
2013/14
2014/15
£300
contracted stocks. Prices have been steadier with crops
now in store and the pressure on some growers to load £200
off the field has eased.
£100
- Packing interest has remained selective and centred
£on the best M Piper and other whites. Stocking for
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Christmas demand and restocking after the holiday
period added some interest to the free-buy market, although this had mostly passed by mid-Jan.
- Interest for post-Christmas replenishment also occurred in the bag market, mainly of frying material. However,
available supplies were more than adequate to cover this, leaving little effect on prices. In general, demand has
remained slow to steady.
- A focus on contracted supplies in the processing market has left free-buy demand subdued. Prices have varied in a
wide range based on quality, variety and haulage.
www.ahdb.org.uk | www.potato.org.uk | Potato Market Dynamics Report/2 month data to w/e 23 Jan 15 unless stated/Published 30 Jan 15/Issue 11 - page 1
SUPPLY TRENDS AHDB/PCL
GB production estimates 2011-14
- The updated estimate of total potato
2011
2012
2013
2014
production in GB for the 2014 crop year is
Total plantings
‘000 ha
128
122
122
121
5.74Mt. This final estimate is nearly 3% higher Average net yield
t/ha
47.4
36.9
45.8
47.4
than the 2013 estimate of 5.58Mt.
Total production
Mt
6.1
4.5
5.6
5.7
- The North-Western European Potato Growers
Area
+1%
-5%
+0%
-1%
Change on previous year
Production +4%
-26%
+24%
+3%
latest release estimates the total area (excl.
NEPG
production
estimates
2011-14
excl.
seed
&
starch
seed & starch) at 547,000ha, yield 52t/ha and
Mt
26.8
22.5
24.2
28.5
production exceeding 28Mt. The four mainland NEPG total production
+18%
%
+11%
-16%
+7%
NEPG countries increased plantings in 2014 by Change on previous year
between 3% and 6% from 2013. There has been considerable variation in the rise of average yields among the
mainland countries with Germany up 26%, Belgium 17%, France 12% and the Netherlands 7% compared to 2013.
GB GROWER HELD STOCKS AND CROP CONDITION AHDB/PCL
- The indicative estimate for end-November 2014 GB
End-November GB grower held stock estimates
potato stocks is 3.5Mt. This is approximately 0.2Mt (4%)
End-Nov
End-Nov
Difference
End-Nov
higher than the estimate published in January 2014, that
2012
2013
2013-14
2014
covered end-November 2013 grower held stocks.
Estimate, Mt
3.5
2.7
3.3
+4%
- Most potatoes in store have continued to keep
reasonably well. Mild temperatures have given cause for concerns in some ambient stores leading to premature
sprouting and odd instances of tuber breakdown however most have now been moved to minimise losses. Skin
finish issues have been an issue for some packing whites and other defects have included common scab, growth
cracks and mechanical damage to some lifted in difficult conditions.
CHRISTMAS 2014: ONLINE DRIVES GROWTH KANTAR WORLDPANEL, TOTAL GROCERY DATA 4 W/E 4 JAN 15
- Grocery sales in the 4-week period to 4 Jan 2015,
which incorporate the run-up to Christmas, show that
shoppers took advantage of food price deflation and
stocked up on volume. Online was a key success over this
period, supported by the extra trading day in the week
before Christmas. The 6.4 million online grocery
transactions made in the 4-week period (half of which
were through Tesco) contributed to half of the overall
market growth. Online has growing appeal for Christmas
shopping, with 12% of shoppers using this channel to
purchase their Christmas groceries in 2014, up from 7%
in 2010. There was lower reliance on promotions
through the online channel when compared with Main
Estate, with a greater proportion of sales coming from full price sales.
- While Online benefitted from the extra trading day this Christmas, Convenience dropped off as people did less last
minute shopping. For the first time in recent years, convenience did not deliver significant growth at Christmas.
RETAIL MARKET: OTHER POTATO PRODUCTS KANTAR WORLDPANEL 12 W/E 4 JAN 15
& EUROMONITOR
- Despite the latest 12-week data showing a slight decline in total frozen volumes, according to analysis by
Euromonitor, the UK frozen potatoes category was one of the strongest performing frozen categories in 2014. It has
been boosted by sales from new product launches with a focus on convenience as well as strong advertising
campaigns. According to Euromonitor analysis, sales of McCain ‘Ready Baked’ jacket potatoes grew by 6% in value
terms in 2014, supported by strong TV advertising and billboard campaigns. However, category value growth, as a
whole, is being largely driven by rising unit prices rather than increasing consumption.
GB 2015 CROP PROGRESS AHDB/PCL
- Open ground as well as some greenhouse or polytunnel planting of earlies started in Cornwall in December.
Intermittent rain developing to generally wet conditions with overnight frosts as well as some high winds has
hampered further progress with only limited activity reported in some early areas.
Disclaimer: While the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, operating through its Potato Council division, seeks to ensure that the information contained within this
document is accurate at the time of printing, no warranty is given in respect thereof and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development
Board accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused (including that caused by negligence) or suffered directly or indirectly in relation to information and opinions
contained in or omitted from this document. Further information email: [email protected] Copyright © 2015 Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.
www.ahdb.org.uk | www.potato.org.uk | Potato Market Dynamics Report/2 month data to w/e 23 Jan 15 unless stated/Published 30 Jan 15/Issue 11 - page 2