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ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
Contents
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
(Click on the topics)
1. Recap
2. Physical Market Rates
3. Arrivals
4. Weather
5. Charts and Outlook
6. Disclaimer
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ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Recap
Indian markets
NCDEX
Previous Close
Soybean
FEB5
3333
3405
APR5
3364
3434
JUN5
3396
3458
AUG5
3413
3453
Net Total Change in OI =
Open
High
Low
3335
3392
3401
3425
-4170
3409
3437
3465
3474
3331
3360
3397
3425
Spread
Feb-2015
Apr-2015
Jun-2015
NCDEX
Previous Close
Soy Oil
FEB5
609.1
620.1
APR5
573.65
583.4
JUN5
548.2
555.1
AUG5
548.05
553.6
Net Total Change in OI =
High
Low
608.2
574
550.05
550
14600
621.9
584.8
558.6
558.8
608.2
574
550
550
•
•
Feb-2015
Apr-2015
36.70
Open
High
Low
3308
3345
3389
3426
14600
3351
3385
3420
3451
3291
3330
3369
3421
Spread
Feb-2015
Apr-2015
Jun-2015
•
Apr-2015
-29
Open
Spread
Feb-2015
Apr-2015
Jun-2015
NCDEX RM
Previous Close
Seed
APR5
3312
3345
MAY5
3349
3378
JUN5
3387
3416
JUL5
3422
3430
Net Total Change in OI =
Feb-2015
Feb-2015
Apr-2015
36.70
Net
Chg.
72
70
62
40
% Chg.
Volume
2.16
2.08
1.83
1.17
32610
21820
3870
590
Jun-2015
-53
-24
Net
Chg.
11
9.75
6.9
5.55
Net
Chg.
33
29
29
8
Volume
1.81
1.70
1.26
1.01
43435
33630
29925
2010
61170
44960
21320
1690
OI
Chg.
-3490
-910
410
-180
% Vol.
Chg.
-24.53
-7.51
69.59
-54.88
OI
42675
80795
78985
15675
OI
Chg.
-7395
8100
12720
1175
Aug-2015
66.50
29.80
1.50
% Chg.
Volume
1.00
0.87
0.86
0.23
34890
5610
1290
40
Jun-2015
65.00
28.30
OI
Aug-2015
-48
-19
5
% Chg.
Jun-2015
65.00
28.30
% Vol.
Chg.
4.82
-6.31
14.84
490.00
% Vol.
Chg.
-18.54
-15.38
-34.85
33.33
OI
35470
7700
3070
460
OI
Chg.
1860
790
-470
-10
Aug-2015
66.50
29.80
1.50
Indian oilseed complex prices closed higher on Friday on firm overseas prices amid likely short
covering after the recent sell-off. Weakness in Rupee was a positive force.
According to reports, Indian Soy meal exports in 2014-15 could hit its lowest level since 1988-89 at
800,000 MT due to higher global Soy supplies.
Traders estimate this year’s Soybean crop between 9 – 10 million MT. USDA estimates Indian
Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT. COOIT expects Indian Soy crop at 9.17 million MT.
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ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
•
•
•
•
•
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Indian RM Seed output in 2014-15 may be 7.0 million MT vs. 7.4 million MT in the previous year.
Latest sowing data shows, RM Seed was sowed in 6.49 million hectares across India vs. 7.04
million hectares in the corresponding period in the previous year.
According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is
estimated at 11.82 million MT.
Soy meal exports from India rose to 193,832 MT in December from 110,806 MT in November.
India's oil meal exports in December 2014 were 389K MT vs. 188K MT in previous month.
Veg. oil imports in December 2014 were at 1.12 million MT vs. 1.05 million MT in Dec 2013.
Soybean - Akola
Soybean - Indore
Soybean - Kota
Soybean - Vidisha
TOTAL SOYBEAN
RM Seed - Alwar
RM Seed - Jaipur
RM Seed - Kota
TOTAL RM Seed
Date
30-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
NCDEX Warehouse Inventory
28-Jan-15
963
3300
140
170
4573
30-Jan-15
963
180
40
170
1353
10
1243
5441
6694
10
748
1186
1944
India Physical Market Rates
Commodity
Soybean - Indore - NCDEX
Soybean - Kota - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Indore - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Mumbai - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Nagpur - NCDEX
Soybean meal Export - Kandla - NCDEX
Soybean meal - Indore - NCDEX
Soy meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA
Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA
Mustard oil - Sri Ganganagar - NCDEX
Rate
3391.00
3232.50
637.10
615.00
637.75
30600.00
28500.00
460.00
270.00
715.00
Units
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / MT
Rs. / MT
USD / MT
USD / MT
Rs. / 10 Kg
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ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
International
•
•
•
•
•
•
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
CBOT Soybean
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5
968.25
974.75
979.75
978.75
963
961
967.75
972.75
972
956.75
968
974.75
979.75
980.25
965
972.75
979
984
982.5
966.75
955
961.75
967
966.75
952.25
CBOT Soy Meal
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5
337.9
330.6
328
326.7
325.1
329.9
324
321.8
320.8
319.4
337.9
330.7
328
325.9
326.3
339.5
332.1
329.5
327.8
326.3
328
322
319.8
319.2
317.9
Net
Chg.
-7.25
-7.00
-7.00
-6.75
-6.25
Net
Chg.
-8
-6.6
-6.2
-5.9
-5.7
% Chg.
-0.75
-0.72
-0.72
-0.69
-0.65
% Chg.
-2.42
-2.04
-1.93
-1.84
-1.78
CBOT Soy Oil
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
Net
Chg.
% Chg.
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5
29.54
29.78
30.01
30.1
30.15
30
30.24
30.46
30.52
30.52
29.5
29.71
29.94
30.08
30.18
30.09
30.34
30.54
30.58
30.57
29.43
29.69
29.9
30
30.14
0.46
0.46
0.45
0.42
0.37
1.53
1.52
1.48
1.38
1.21
CBOT Soy complex prices closed mixed yesterday.
Soy oil prices rose on Friday as recent selling seemed excessive.
Beneficial weather for Soy crop in S. America amid expectations of large supplies are negative
forces for Soy complex prices.
Grains analyst Safras & Mercado forecast a 2014/15 Brazilian Soy crop of 95.0 million MT, down
slightly from its outlook of 95.9 million MT in December.
According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 27 January, non commercial traders
decreased their net long positions in CBOT Soybeans.
ICE Canola prices closed higher on Friday yesterday.
4
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Physical Market Rates
Date
2-Feb-15
31-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
31-Jan-15
Physical Market Rates - Soybean
Commodity
Brazil Soybean February - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soybean May - FOB Up River
China Imported Soybean Dalian
USA Soybean February - FOB Gulf
Date
2-Feb-15
31-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
Physical Market Rates - Soy meal
Commodity
Brazil Soy meal February - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soy meal February - FOB Up River
China HQ Soy meal Dalian
Date
2-Feb-15
31-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
30-Jan-15
Physical Market Rates - Soy Oil
Commodity
Brazil Soy Oil February - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soy Oil February - FOB Up River
China Standard Soy Oil Dalian
India Soy Oil Degummed CIF Mumbai
Rate
380.60
368.39
3250.00
388.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
$ / MT
Rate
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
378.00
414.35
3130.00
Rate
690.10
692.03
5500.00
792.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
$ / MT
5
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Arrivals
6
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
IMD
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ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Charts & Outlook
NCDEX Charts
Source: - Reuters
NCDEX Soybean April (3434.00)
Trade Recommendation: - Sell in the range 3473 – 3495, S/L 3517, TGT 3415 - 3365.
Source: - Reuters
NCDEX Soy Oil April (583.40)
Trade Recommendation: - Buy above 580.00, S/L 576, TGT 590.
8
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Source: - Reuters
NCDEX RM Seed April (3345.00)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
NCDEX Outlook: - Rupee is trading flat. Soybean/Soy oil may rally towards resistance at 3500/595 levels.
RM Seed prices may rally towards 3400 levels. Selling may re-emerge at resistance levels.
CBOT Charts
Source: - Reuters
CBOT Soybean March (959.00)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
9
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
Source: - Reuters
CBOT Soy meal March (328.70)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Source: - Reuters
CBOT Soy Oil March (29.95)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Outlook: - Ideas of new supplies from S. America amid China cancellations are bearish. Soy complex
prices may move lower towards 940/320 levels. Soy oil may rally towards resistance at 30.70 levels.
10
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 2, 2015
Tushar Rathod: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER:
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.
This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report
is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative in any
jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of ADMISI Commodities
Private Limited. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial
situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it
is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Archer Daniels Midland Company
(ADM), nor ADMISI Commodities Private Limited, nor any person/entity connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the
use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice.
Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future
performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade
securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts
of a stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a commodity’s fundamentals and as such, may not match
with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material
only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking
statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our investment businesses may make investment
decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form
and/or redistributed without ADMISI Commodities Private Limited prior written consent.
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