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BMO Harris Bank | BMO Nesbitt Burns | BMO Capital Markets
An analysis of the latest economic data
January 28, 2015, 8:30 am
Cdn. Employment Report — December (R)
Canadian Jobs: Rewrite!
Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist • [email protected] • 416-359-4092
Thanks to the magic of revisions, the Canadian jobs landscape was actually weaker over
the past year than what many of us believed. Statistics Canada revised the Labour Force
Survey back to 2001 and the results were rather eyebrow-raising. The attached tables show
the most recent few months (before and after revisions). Unfortunately, December is still
reflecting a decline in jobs (consensus at the time had looked for a gain) but now, the drop
more than doubled. Canada shed 11,300 positions last month, and November’s job loss was
revised to 16,300 from 10,700, while October saw more jobs created than first estimated. For
all of 2014, Canada created 121,300 new positions,
down from the pre-revision figure of 185,700. It wasn’t
Employment after revisions
all bad news though. Employment was revised higher in
Canada (change in thousands)
the prior three years, with 2013 now showing a 125,700
Dec
increase (vs 99,000).
But as far as the past twelve months are concerned,
the picture was less rosy for many of the major
categories. Examples include full-time and part-time
roles; public and private sector, and those who are selfemployed; goods-producing and service-producing
industries, agriculture, manufacturing, construction,
hotels & restaurants, and education. Trade and
public administration swung from job creators, to job
eliminators, in 2014. There were, however, a few
sectors that ended up looking better, such as health care
& social assistance (53,600 new positions were created,
up from the first estimate of 39,000), information,
culture & recreation, as well as professional,
scientific & technical services. Although economic
growth perked up in the year, the labour force only
grew 19,800, a big revision from the prior estimate of
74,000. But combined with more job cuts, the jobless
rate stayed at 6.9% for all of 2014.
It was also more negative from province to province.
The picture looked grimmer in B.C. and Ontario
(annual job gains were cut by 22,000 and 42,200,
respectively), while Quebec and Nova Scotia looked
better.
Bottom Line: Overall, Canadian employment growth
was weaker than expected. At the very least, it appears
to support the Bank of Canada’s view that there is still
lots of labour market slack. And, perhaps, it paves the
way for another rate cut in March.
(average change)
-11.3
Nov
-16.3
Oct
62.2
3-mo.
11.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.8
Full-Time
35.0
25.7
29.0
29.9
13.2
Part-Time
-46.3
-42.0
33.2
-18.4
-3.1
Goods Producing
10.2
0.3
15.3
8.6
2.7
Manufacturing
-5.8
-5.8
8.4
-1.1
-1.1
7.6
-0.1
3.8
3.8
3.2
-21.6
-16.6
46.9
2.9
7.4
-4.9
-31.2
22.5
-4.5
Total
(month/month % change)
Construction
Service Producing
Trade
Unemployment Rate
Avg. Hourly Wages
1
(%)
(y/y % chng)
(3-mo. % change : a.r.)
2
6.7
6.7
1.9
(y/y % change)
1.5
3
6.6
1.5
(3 mo. ago)
4
12-mo.
10.1
1
0.7
2
-1.5
6.9
3
7.2
4
2.1
3
2.4
4
(12 mo. ago)
Employment before revisions
Canada (change in thousands)
(average change)
Dec
-4.3
Nov
-10.7
Oct
43.1
3-mo.
9.4
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.6
Full-Time
53.5
5.7
26.5
28.6
15.9
Part-Time
-57.7
-16.3
16.5
-19.2
-0.4
Goods Producing
22.1
17.3
19.4
19.6
6.7
Manufacturing
Total
(month/month % change)
1
12-mo.
15.5
1.0
-18.3
-0.4
33.2
4.8
-1.0
Construction
12.6
-5.3
3.2
3.5
5.7
Service Producing
-26.4
-28.0
23.7
-10.2
8.7
10.5
-41.6
38.5
2.5
Trade
Avg. Hourly Wages
1
(3-mo. % change : a.r.)
1.0
(%)
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.8
3
(y/y % chng)
1.9
1.5
1.5
2.1
3
Unemployment Rate
2
(y/y % change)
3
(3 mo. ago)
4
2
7.2
4
2.4
4
(12 mo. ago)
A publication of BMO Capital Markets Economic Research • Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist • www.bmocm.com/economics • 416-359-6372
econoFACTS
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BMO Harris Bank | BMO Nesbitt Burns | BMO Capital Markets
January 28, 2015, 8:30 am
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