1. Healthcare

United States Economic Outlook
BMO Capital Markets Economics
January 30, 2015
Q1
PRODUCTION
Real GDP (chain-weighted)
Final Sales
Final Domestic Demand
Consumer Spending
durables
nondurables
services
Government Spending
Business Investment
non-residential construction
equipment
intellectual property
Residential Construction
Exports
Imports
4.6
3.2
3.4
2.5
14.1
2.2
0.9
1.7
9.7
12.6
11.2
5.5
8.8
11.0
11.3
Q3
5.0
5.0
4.1
3.2
9.2
2.5
2.5
4.4
8.9
4.8
11.0
8.8
3.3
4.6
-0.9
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2015
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2016
Q4
2013
2014
2015
2016
2.6
1.8
2.8
4.3
7.5
4.4
3.7
-2.2
1.9
2.6
-1.9
7.2
4.1
2.8
8.9
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.5
5.0
4.2
3.0
1.8
0.1
-2.0
-2.0
5.0
7.0
2.0
4.0
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.5
4.3
3.8
3.3
2.0
3.7
2.0
3.5
5.0
10.0
2.2
4.5
2.8
2.9
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.2
1.7
4.2
3.5
4.2
4.5
9.0
2.4
4.6
2.7
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.0
3.1
1.6
4.2
4.0
4.4
4.0
8.0
2.6
4.5
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.8
3.2
2.7
2.8
2.0
4.1
4.0
4.3
3.7
5.0
2.9
4.3
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.4
3.8
3.8
4.0
3.5
4.5
3.1
3.6
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.7
2.2
2.2
2.2
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.2
4.0
3.2
3.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.7
2.1
2.0
2.2
3.1
3.4
3.0
3.1
3.5
3.3
3.2
2.2
2.2
1.9
2.4
6.7
1.9
1.9
-2.0
3.0
-0.5
4.6
3.4
11.9
3.0
1.1
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.5
7.0
1.8
2.0
-0.2
6.1
8.0
6.3
4.6
1.6
3.1
3.9
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.5
6.0
3.6
3.0
1.4
3.5
2.4
2.6
5.8
7.0
3.1
4.9
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.8
3.2
2.7
2.7
2.0
3.9
3.7
4.0
3.8
6.0
2.8
4.1
(billions of 2009 dollars : a.r.)
35.2
84.8
82.2
113.1
-447.2 -460.4 -431.3 -471.5
-1.6
-0.3
0.7
-1.0
103.0
-486.4
-0.4
98.0
-503.7
-0.4
95.0
-520.9
-0.4
88.0
-536.6
-0.4
86.0
-549.7
-0.3
82.0
-557.2
-0.2
80.0
-562.3
-0.1
80.0
-566.2
-0.1
62.9
-420.5
0.2
79.2
-452.6
-0.2
96.0
-511.9
-0.4
82.0
-558.8
-0.3
Nominal GDP
(% chng : a.r.)
(billions of dollars : a.r.)
17,044 17,328 17,600 17,711
-0.8
6.8
6.4
2.5
17,789 18,024 18,260 18,494
1.8
5.4
5.3
5.2
INFLATION
GDP Price Index
Core PCE Deflator
CPI All Items
Excl. Food & Energy
Food Prices
Energy Prices
Services
(quarter/quarter % change : a.r.)
1.3
2.1
1.4
-0.0
1.2
2.0
1.4
1.1
1.9
3.0
1.1
-1.2
1.6
2.5
1.3
1.4
2.3
4.5
3.3
2.7
4.5
4.9
-3.7
-25.5
3.3
3.2
1.5
2.1
CPI All Items
Excl. Food & Energy
(year/year % change)
1.4
2.1
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.8
FINANCIAL
Fed Funds Rate
90 Day T-Bill
3-Month Libor
10 Year Bond Yield
Inventory Change
Net Exports
Contribution to GDP Growth
-2.1
-1.0
0.7
1.2
3.2
0.0
1.3
-0.8
1.6
2.9
-1.0
4.7
-5.3
-9.2
2.2
Q2
18,715 18,935 19,140 19,337
4.9
4.8
4.4
4.2
-0.7
0.7
-2.9
0.9
2.6
-35.7
2.3
2.3
1.5
1.9
1.6
2.4
3.1
2.4
2.4
1.6
2.6
1.8
2.2
9.9
2.4
2.5
2.0
2.7
2.1
1.3
9.4
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.2
1.6
5.9
2.4
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.8
2.4
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.4
1.9
1.8
2.0
1.9
2.3
2.3
2.3
1.2
1.7
-0.0
1.5
-0.3
1.3
0.1
1.4
1.0
1.6
2.4
1.9
2.6
2.1
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.2
(average for the quarter)
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.24
0.23
0.23
2.76
2.62
2.50
0.13
0.02
0.24
2.28
0.13
0.02
0.25
1.79
0.13
0.02
0.25
1.80
0.21
0.10
0.34
1.97
0.46
0.33
0.60
2.22
0.71
0.57
0.86
2.40
0.96
0.80
1.13
2.55
1.21
1.03
1.39
2.70
FOREIGN TRADE
Current Account Balance
(% of GDP)
Merchandise Balance
Non-Merchandise Balance
(billions of dollars : a.r.)
-408
-394
-401
-2.4
-2.3
-2.3
-729
-757
-728
321
364
327
-438
-2.5
-782
344
-411
-2.3
-760
349
-408
-2.3
-761
353
-421
-2.3
-778
357
-438
-2.4
-794
356
-453
-2.4
-812
359
-462
-2.4
-826
364
Exchange Rate (¥/US$)
Exchange Rate (US$/€)
Exchange Rate (US$/£)
Broad TWD
(average for the quarter)
103
102
104
1.37
1.37
1.32
1.66
1.68
1.67
102.9
102.4
103.3
115
1.25
1.58
108.0
120
1.13
1.51
113.5
122
1.14
1.52
114.4
123
1.14
1.52
114.9
125
1.13
1.51
115.4
126
1.13
1.51
115.7
COMMODITY PRICES
WTI spot (US$/bbl)
Henry Hub spot (US$/mmBtu)
(average for the quarter)
98.8
103.3
97.8
5.2
4.6
3.9
73.2
3.8
47.9
3.1
51.0
3.5
54.0
3.6
56.0
3.9
Pre-tax Profits with IVA and CCA
Personal Income
Real Disposable Income
(year/year % change)
-4.8
0.1
3.6
3.7
2.4
2.2
1.4
3.8
2.2
0.2
4.3
3.1
9.3
4.2
4.1
2.1
4.2
4.1
0.4
4.5
4.2
Savings Rate (%)
(average for the quarter)
4.9
5.1
4.7
4.6
5.5
5.4
OTHER INDICATORS
(average for the quarter)
Unemployment Rate (%)
6.6
6.2
6.1
Housing Starts (mlns, a.r.)
0.93
0.99
1.03
Existing Home Sales (mlns, a.r.)
4.60
4.87
5.12
Home Prices (y/y % ch, Case-Shiller)
12.8
9.4
5.7
Motor Vehicle Sales (mlns, a.r.)
15.7
16.6
16.8
5.7
1.07
5.07
4.5
16.9
5.6
1.10
5.13
3.8
16.9
(quarter/quarter % change : a.r.)
3.5
1.4
1.5
2.4
3.9
5.7
4.1
5.6
1.4
4.2
Civilian Employment Growth
Industrial Production
CBO Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
16,768 17,421 18,142 19,032
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.9
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.4
-0.7
2.4
1.5
1.4
1.6
1.7
2.4
-0.5
2.6
1.0
1.3
0.2
1.5
2.7
-13.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.1
2.0
5.6
2.4
1.46
1.27
1.65
2.85
0.13
0.06
0.27
2.35
0.13
0.03
0.23
2.54
0.23
0.12
0.36
1.95
1.08
0.92
1.26
2.63
-468
-2.4
-837
369
-477
-2.5
-847
371
-400
-2.4
-702
301
-410
-2.4
-749
339
-420
-2.3
-773
354
-465
-2.4
-831
366
127
1.12
1.51
115.9
128
1.11
1.52
116.0
130
1.10
1.53
115.9
98
1.33
1.56
101.0
106
1.33
1.65
104.1
122
1.14
1.51
114.6
128
1.11
1.52
115.9
61.0
4.1
64.0
4.0
66.0
3.8
69.0
4.1
97.9
3.7
93.3
4.4
52.2
3.5
65.0
4.0
2.7
4.8
3.8
5.2
4.8
2.5
5.1
4.7
2.2
4.8
4.6
2.2
4.6
4.5
2.3
4.2
2.0
-0.2
-0.7
3.9
2.4
3.5
4.4
4.1
4.9
4.7
2.3
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
5.3
4.9
5.3
1.19
5.28
3.7
17.0
5.1
1.27
5.33
4.2
17.1
4.9
1.31
5.36
3.1
17.2
4.8
1.31
5.36
3.0
17.2
4.7
1.32
5.35
3.1
17.1
4.6
1.31
5.33
3.4
17.1
4.6
1.29
5.30
3.0
17.0
7.4
0.93
5.07
12.0
15.6
6.2
1.00
4.92
8.0
16.5
5.2
1.22
5.28
3.7
17.0
4.7
1.31
5.34
3.1
17.1
1.6
3.0
1.6
2.8
1.6
2.7
1.4
2.6
1.2
2.5
1.2
2.4
1.1
2.4
1.0
2.9
-4.1
1.6
4.3
-2.8
1.7
4.0
-2.6
1.4
2.6
-2.5
Note: Outlined areas represent forecast periods
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