1. No category

10 de febrero de 2015
www.monex.com.mx
Preliminares
@monexanalisis
Reportes al 4T14
Elaborado por: Dirección de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil



80%
60%
Crecimiento en Ebitda
40%
20%
Mediana 10.9%
0%
-20%
-40%
SIMEC
ICH
OMA
IENOVA
ALSEA
BIMBO
ELEKTRA
PE&OLES
MEXCHEM
ICA
MFRISCO
BOLSA
ALFA
MEGA
KIMBER
TLEVISA
AMX
AC
FEMSA
COMERCI
KOF
ASUR
GAP
CHDRAUI
AZTECA
LALA
LIVEPOL
WALMEX
LAB
SORIANA
GRUMA
PINFRA
AUTLAN
ALPEK
OHLMEX
-60%
1
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
Mercado Accionario
La mediana de cremiento en Ventas
se espera del 6.8%, mientras que el
crecimiento promedio se ubica en 7.9%.
45%
35%
Crecimiento en Ventas
25%
Mediana 6.8%
15%
5%
-5%
-15%
ALSEA
ASUR
MFRISCO
AUTLAN
IENOVA
ELEKTRA
MEXCHEM
ICH
SIMEC
BOLSA
ALFA
BIMBO
OMA
AZTECA
AMX
ICA
FEMSA
KOF
TLEVISA
GAP
WALMEX
KIMBER
CHDRAUI
LALA
LIVEPOL
MEGA
LAB
AC
SORIANA
COMERCI
PINFRA
PE&OLES
GRUMA
ALPEK
OHLMEX
-25%
60%
40%
20%
Mediana 10.9%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
SIMEC
ICH
OMA
IENOVA
ALSEA
BIMBO
ELEKTRA
PE&OLES
MEXCHEM
ICA
MFRISCO
BOLSA
ALFA
MEGA
KIMBER
TLEVISA
AMX
AC
FEMSA
COMERCI
KOF
ASUR
GAP
CHDRAUI
AZTECA
LALA
LIVEPOL
WALMEX
LAB
SORIANA
GRUMA
PINFRA
AUTLAN
ALPEK
OHLMEX
La mediana de cremiento en Ebitda
se espera del 10.9%, mientras que el
promedio ponderado se ubica en 9.8%
Crecimiento en Ebitda
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
2
Mercado Accionario
Reportes Preliminares al 4T14
Ventas
Margen Operativo
Utilidad Neta
15,308
15,754
3,073
4T14e vs.
4T13
3,407
10.9%
ALFA
M
18-feb
50,018
56,910
13.8%
5,701
6,455
13.2%
ALPEK
M
18-feb
20,931
16,656
-20.4%
1,718
1,164
-32.3%
ALSEA
M
27-feb
4,417
7,875
78.3%
614
1,016
AMX
M
10-feb
204,120
228,698
12.0%
63,615
ASUR
C
23-feb
1,478
2,092
41.5%
762
AUTLAN
M
27-feb
926
1,216
31.2%
AZTECA
C
24-feb
3,806
4,267
12.1%
BIMBO
C
26-feb
46,476
52,504
13.0%
BOLSA
M
17-feb
574
660
15.1%
CHDRAUI
C
19-feb
18,433
19,380
COMERCI
T
25-feb
11,916
ELEKTRA
T
27-feb
FEMSA
M
GAP
C
GRUMA
ICA
ICH
IENOVA
AC
Tipo Fecha
Est. Reporte
C
18-feb
Ebitda
4T14e vs.
4T13
2.9%
Emisora
Margen EBITDA
1,356
1,595
4T14e vs.
4T13
17.7%
15.9%
16.4%
20.1%
21.6%
1,026 -
3,808
-471.2%
6.4%
7.2%
11.4%
11.3%
117
286
344.2%
4.2%
4.9%
8.2%
7.0%
65.5%
275
339
23.5%
8.3%
7.3%
13.9%
12.9%
70,959
11.5%
17,177
19,371
12.8%
18.2%
19.0%
31.2%
31.0%
824
8.1%
645
536
-16.9%
44.3%
52.7%
51.5%
39.4%
204
183
-10.5%
68
27
139.5%
14.0%
8.9%
22.1%
15.0%
1,428
1,517
6.3%
763
1,069
40.1%
33.5%
24.2%
37.5%
35.6%
3,978
6,461
62.4%
1,391
1,970
41.6%
5.6%
6.0%
8.6%
12.3%
277
315
13.8%
149
202
35.5%
45.8%
45.0%
48.3%
47.7%
5.1%
1,125
1,200
6.7%
452
434
-4.0%
4.3%
4.7%
6.1%
6.2%
12,019
0.9%
939
1,026
9.2%
2,246
948
-57.8%
5.5%
6.2%
7.9%
8.5%
18,963
22,798
20.2%
2,049
3,113
52.0%
1,863
267
-85.7%
6.1%
9.5%
10.8%
13.7%
26-feb
70,490
76,761
8.9%
12,467
13,787
10.6%
6,754
7,246
26-feb
1,341
1,417
5.7%
845
909
7.6%
896
430
C
25-feb
13,666
12,389
-9.3%
1,811
1,807
-0.2%
2,156
M
27-feb
7,729
8,500
10.0%
1,262
1,501
18.9%
1,082 -
M
19-feb
6,349
7,466
17.6%
26
159
513.6%
265 -
C
25-feb
2,047
2,662
30.0%
708
1,195
68.7%
4T13
4T14e
4T13
4T14e
4T13
-
-
4T14e
4T13
4T14e
4T13
4T14e
7.3%
13.8%
14.1%
17.7%
18.0%
-52.0%
46.3%
45.4%
63.0%
64.1%
782
-63.7%
10.1%
8.9%
13.3%
14.6%
650
-160.1%
10.5%
12.7%
16.3%
17.7%
194
-173.1%
-3.5%
-1.3%
0.4%
2.1%
70
594
754.1%
24.7%
28.8%
34.6%
44.9%
30.2%
KIMBER
C
22-ene
7,263
7,667
5.6%
2,067
2,317
12.1%
1,115
1,194
7.0%
23.5%
24.3%
28.5%
KOF
M
25-feb
43,240
46,174
6.8%
8,554
9,335
9.1%
3,135
3,362
7.2%
15.3%
15.6%
19.8%
20.2%
LAB
C
27-feb
3,678
3,834
4.3%
1,341
1,381
3.0%
858
837
-2.5%
36.0%
25.9%
36.5%
36.0%
LALA
C
26-feb
11,092
11,657
5.1%
1,367
1,446
5.7%
724
840
16.0%
10.2%
9.8%
12.3%
12.4%
LIVEPOL
C
19-feb
26,121
27,442
5.1%
5,576
5,893
5.7%
3,646
3,779
3.6%
19.6%
14.6%
21.3%
21.5%
MEGA
C
17-feb
2,959
3,106
5.0%
1,180
1,330
12.7%
395
593
50.0%
27.3%
26.3%
39.9%
42.8%
MEXCHEM M
25-feb
16,643
19,914
19.7%
2,280
2,769
21.5%
-
207
748
460.5%
5.7%
10.1%
13.7%
13.9%
MFRISCO
M
27-feb
2,554
3,373
32.1%
1,158
1,339
15.6%
-
140
252
279.8%
21.1%
16.3%
45.4%
39.7%
OHLMEX
M
18-feb
9,485
3,896
-58.9%
7,420
3,515
-52.6%
2,574
1,500
-41.7%
76.4%
85.8%
78.2%
90.2%
OMA
C
23-feb
933
1,047
12.2%
284
486
71.0%
532
259
-51.3%
25.0%
35.4%
30.5%
46.4%
PE&OLES
M
27-feb
14,943
14,410
-3.6%
2,684
3,516
31.0%
152
903
492.7%
8.2%
13.4%
18.0%
24.4%
PINFRA
C
27-feb
1,681
1,664
-1.0%
1,077
1,061
-1.5%
837
626
-25.3%
59.6%
57.9%
64.1%
63.8%
SIMEC
M
19-feb
5,533
6,499
17.5%
-7
113
1691.3%
151
30
-79.9%
-3.9%
-2.3%
-0.1%
1.7%
SORIANA
C
27-feb
28,702
29,119
1.5%
2,177
2,224
2.1%
565
1,260
122.8%
5.9%
5.3%
7.6%
7.6%
TLEVISA
C
26-feb
21,443
22,824
6.4%
7,887
8,827
11.9%
3,858
3,075
-20.3%
24.8%
25.4%
36.8%
38.7%
WALMEX
M
17-feb
Mediana
IPC
Prom. Ponderado
98,977
104,505
9,141
9,572
5,044
789,148
857,154
149,241
156,791
163,731
172,122
4.7%
10.9%
9.7%
9.8%
5,148
730,390
794,235
5.6%
6.8%
8.0%
7.9%
59,074
61,724
51,820
55,744
-2.0%
7.0%
-12.3%
-9.7%
7.1%
14.0%
13.8%
13.4%
6.9%
14.1%
13.9%
13.4%
9.2%
19.8%
20.4%
19.7%
9.2%
20.2%
20.7%
20.1%
4T14e
4T13
Grupos Financieros
Tipo Fecha
Est. Reporte
GENTERA M
24-feb
Emisora
Ingresos por Intereses
4T14e vs.
4T14e
4T13
3,069
3,515
14.5%
4T13
Fibras
Emisora
DANHOS
Ingresos Totales
Tipo Fecha
Est. Reporte
M
25-feb
4T13
4T14e
4T14e vs.
4T13
0.2%
Margen Financiero
4T14e vs.
4T14e
4T13
9,930
12,152
22.4%
4T13
Ingreso Neto Operativo (NOI)
4T14e vs.
4T14e
4T13
323
316
-2.2%
4T13
4T13
4T13
Utilidad Neta
491
4T14e
655
ROA
4T14e vs.
4T13
33.4%
Utilidad Neta
4T14e
Margen NOI
32.9%
26.7%
Margen FFO
4T14e vs.
4T13
12.1%
77.6%
75.8%
67.6%
75.6%
47.7%
81.7%
75.4%
63.2%
50.9%
4T13
4T14e
4T13
4T14e
416
417
1,183
2,168
83.3%
FIBRAMQ
M
26-feb
477
586
22.8%
426
504
18.1%
233
297
27.2%
89.4%
86.0%
48.9%
50.6%
TERRA
M
19-feb
490
516
5.2%
404
465
15.0%
232
297
27.6%
82.4%
90.0%
47.4%
57.5%
27.4%
82.1%
80.9%
56.0%
54.2%
2,566
3,687
43.7%
2,120
2,919
37.7%
1,213
1,697
39.9%
82.6%
79.2%
47.3%
46.0%
Mediana
Prom. Ponderado
14.0%
315
9.8%
26-feb
69.0%
1,104
65.1%
4T14e
M
1,635
281
ROE
FUNO
967
747
4T13
16.6%
Cifras Nominales en Millones de MXN$
C: Estimados de Consenso; T: Estimados por tendencia; M: Estimados Monex; P: Resultados Preliminares; R: Reportó.
Fuente: Monex con base en Thomson Reuters, Economática y Bloomberg
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
3
Mercado Accionario
Directorio
Dirección de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil
Carlos A. González Tabares
Director de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil
T. 5231-4521
[email protected]
Eduardo Ávila Vargas
Subdirector de Análisis Económico
T. 5231-0489
[email protected]
Daniela Ruíz Zárate
Analista Económico
T. 5231-0489
[email protected]
Fernando E. Bolaños S.
Analista Bursátil / Industrial, Minero y Petroquímico
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 0720
[email protected]
J. Roberto Solano Pérez
Analista Bursátil / Construcción, Vivienda y Fibras
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451
[email protected]
Verónica Uribe Boyzo
Analista Bursátil / Alimentos y Bebidas
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4782
[email protected]
Giselle N. Mojica Plascencia
Analista Bursátil
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451
[email protected]
Laura Villanueva Ramírez
Analista Bursátil
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 0720
[email protected]
Stephany Ramírez Rojas
Analista Deuda Corporativa
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4262
[email protected]
J. Francisco Caudillo Lira
Analista Técnico Sr.
T. 5231-0016
[email protected]
Astianax Cuanalo Dorantes
Analista Sr. de Sistemas de Información
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4790
[email protected]
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
4
Mercado Accionario
Disclaimer
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Nota de Empresa
5