1. Bienes raíces

27 de octubre de 2014
www.monex.com.mx
Reportes Financieros
Comparativos al 3T14
@monexanalisis
Elaborado por: Carlos Gonzalez Tabares
Astianax Cuanalo Dorantes



Crecimiento en Ebitda al 3T14 Estimado vs. Conocido
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
AUTLAN
MFRISCO
ICA
IENOVA
ALSEA
ICH
SIMEC
OHLMEX
OMA
BOLSA
MEGA
KOF
BIMBO
GRUMA
FEMSA
ALFA
AZTECA
PINFRA
AMX
ASUR
GAP
CEMEX
LAB
AC
CHDRAUI
MEXCHEM
LIVEPOL
LALA
PE&OLES
WALMEX
COMERCI
GMEXICO
ELEKTRA
GSANBOR
ALPEK
KIMBER
-30%
Ebitda 3 t 14E
Ebitda 3 t 14
Mediana 9.3%
1
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
Mercado Accionario
Comparativos Trimestrales al 3T14
Ventas
Emisora
Tipo Est.
Fecha
Reporte
3t13
3t14 (e/c)
Ebitda
3t14 (e/c)
vs. 3t13
3t14 vs.
3t14e
3t14
(e / c)
3t13
Utilidad Neta
3t14 (e/c)
vs. 3t13
3t14 vs. 3t14e
3t14
(e / c)
3t13
3t14 (e/c)
vs. 3t13
Margen Operativo
3t14 vs.
3t14e
3t14
(e / c)
3t13
Margen EBITDA
3t14
(e / c)
3t13
AC
C
24-oct
15,851
16,429
3.6%
1.6%
3,506
3,738
6.6%
-0.7%
1,721
1,830
6.3%
-1.9%
17.4%
18.5%
22.1%
22.8%
ALFA
M
14-oct
52,477
61,131
16.5%
0.6%
6,367
7,159
12.4%
-0.1%
2,215
987
-55.4%
-45.6%
8.3%
7.5%
12.1%
11.7%
ALPEK
M
14-oct
23,208
21,410
-7.7%
5.3%
2,062
1,720
-16.6%
7.1%
537
535
-0.4%
16.4%
6.6%
5.9%
8.9%
8.0%
ALSEA
C
15-oct
4,082
5,701
39.7%
-2.7%
546
706
29.3%
-3.0%
184
185
0.5%
-7.6%
7.5%
6.1%
13.4%
12.4%
AMX
M
23-oct
194,221
220,884
13.7%
7.8%
63,318
69,189
9.3%
9.0%
16,384
10,120
-38.2%
-38.2%
19.5%
17.0%
32.6%
31.3%
ASUR
M
22-oct
1,310
1,470
12.2%
9.3%
806
880
9.2%
1.0%
511
581
13.8%
5.1%
53.4%
52.1%
61.5%
59.9%
AUTLAN
M
28-oct
967
1,068
10.5%
85
156
84.1%
-16
26
NS
2.3%
7.2%
8.8%
14.6%
AZTECA
M
28-oct
3,016
3,277
8.7%
5.9%
836
929
11.1%
-9.1%
330
6
-98.1%
-98.6%
22.6%
23.0%
27.7%
28.3%
BIMBO
C
23-oct
44,835
50,154
11.9%
-1.4%
4,791
5,537
15.6%
-3.7%
1,597
1,941
21.5%
5.8%
7.6%
8.0%
10.7%
11.0%
BOLSA
M
21-oct
486
572
17.5%
-13.4%
250
295
18.0%
-6.4%
176
220
24.8%
8.7%
48.5%
49.0%
51.4%
51.6%
CEMEX
M
23-oct
52,609
54,754
4.1%
-7.4%
8,373
9,017
7.7%
-13.6%
-2,033
-842
NS
NS
8.9%
9.8%
15.9%
16.5%
CHDRAUI
C
22-oct
16,173
17,168
6.2%
0.6%
1,075
1,142
6.2%
4.1%
381
427
12.1%
10.1%
4.6%
4.9%
6.6%
6.7%
COMERCI
C
22-oct
12,745
12,746
0.0%
-2.4%
1,118
1,091
-2.4%
-7.1%
549
573
4.4%
-3.9%
6.5%
6.2%
8.8%
8.6%
ELEKTRA
T
22-oct
17,067
18,215
6.7%
-20.1%
2,673
2,403
-10.1%
-22.8%
672
1,836
173.1%
587.1%
11.3%
9.3%
15.7%
13.2%
9,646
10,992
14.0%
6,106
5,994
-1.8%
11.2%
11.4%
15.1%
15.4%
809
875
8.1%
465
534
14.9%
-19.7%
44.7%
47.7%
61.4%
63.9%
FEMSA
M
28-oct
63,977
71,290
11.4%
GAP
M
23-oct
1,319
1,369
3.8%
-5.2%
-6.7%
GMEXICO
M
28-oct
30,049
32,495
8.1%
12,860
11,837
-8.0%
6,869
5,513
-19.7%
34.8%
28.4%
42.8%
36.4%
GRUMA
C
22-oct
12,569
12,665
0.8%
2.5%
1,667
1,924
15.4%
6.1%
631
1,215
92.5%
37.6%
10.4%
12.4%
13.3%
15.2%
GSANBOR
C
28-oct
8,933
9,028
1.1%
-0.4%
1,080
967
-10.5%
-8.2%
620
579
-6.7%
7.4%
10.1%
8.4%
12.1%
10.7%
ICA
M
24-oct
7,765
8,752
12.7%
-0.6%
883
1,341
51.9%
-13.6%
241
-769
NS
NS
8.2%
12.7%
11.4%
15.3%
ICH
M
27-oct
6,836
7,986
16.8%
629
813
29.2%
503
517
2.8%
4.6%
5.7%
9.2%
10.2%
IENOVA
C
22-oct
2,416
3,169
31.2%
19.2%
979
1,331
35.9%
22.2%
729
870
19.3%
44.4%
32.1%
35.2%
40.5%
42.0%
KIMBER
C
23-oct
7,238
6,924
-4.3%
-6.8%
2,176
1,725
-20.8%
-13.0%
1,135
760
-33.1%
-24.9%
24.6%
19.2%
30.1%
24.9%
KOF
M
22-oct
37,494
41,781
11.4%
1.1%
6,808
7,894
15.9%
2.8%
2,954
3,513
18.9%
19.1%
13.5%
14.7%
18.2%
18.9%
LAB
C
23-oct
3,067
3,360
9.5%
-5.7%
796
850
6.8%
-7.4%
462
473
2.2%
-11.5%
25.5%
24.5%
26.0%
25.3%
LALA
C
27-oct
11,101
11,329
2.0%
-2.8%
1,358
1,366
0.6%
-4.1%
900
748
-16.9%
-15.2%
10.1%
9.8%
12.2%
12.1%
0.3%
-5.4%
-5.7%
LIVEPOL
C
22-oct
15,790
17,410
10.3%
2,230
2,255
1.2%
1,240
1,183
-4.6%
11.4%
10.2%
14.1%
13.0%
MEGA
M
28-oct
2,475
2,807
13.4%
1,064
1,242
16.8%
566
525
-7.3%
27.2%
28.0%
43.0%
44.3%
18.3%
MEXCHEM
M
28-oct
17,090
18,286
7.0%
3,151
3,338
5.9%
-618
728
NS
13.1%
10.7%
18.4%
MFRISCO
M
28-oct
2,423
3,050
25.8%
745
1,176
57.8%
-199
148
NS
10.4%
13.0%
30.8%
38.6%
OHLMEX
M
16-oct
3,193
4,410
38.1%
26.7%
2,773
3,498
26.1%
12.9%
1,366
2,005
46.8%
36.4%
81.3%
75.1%
86.8%
79.3%
OMA
M
23-oct
869
1,002
15.3%
10.9%
16.2%
-0.9%
PE&OLES
M
28-oct
15,765
15,509
-1.6%
PINFRA
C
22-oct
1,437
1,772
23.2%
SIMEC
M
27-oct
6,211
6,817
9.8%
TLEVISA
M
23-oct
18,763
19,830
5.7%
WALMEX
M
Mediana
IPC
Prom. Ponderado
17-oct
101,271
105,643
776,032
817,100
847,444
891,663
4.3%
9.8%
9.2%
9.1%
Grupos Financieros
Emisora
403
503
25.0%
3,593
3,534
-1.6%
923
1,022
10.7%
472
609
29.1%
-2.7%
7,565
3,408
-55.0%
-57.1%
1.1%
0.8%
1.2%
1.2%
9,364
9,146
162,019
167,780
168,882
175,606
-2.3%
9.3%
4.2%
4.7%
-4.5%
-1.9%
-0.9%
-0.9%
15.2%
Ingresos por Intereses
Tipo Est.
Fecha
Reporte
3t13
3t14 (e/c)
3t14 (e/c)
vs. 3t13
227
271
19.0%
1,361
1,279
-6.0%
520
266
-48.9%
397
381
-4.0%
2,389
-183
NS
NS
-8.0%
0.5%
-13.8%
-13.1%
-3.4%
-0.1%
-15.1%
-15.1%
-0.2%
5,295
4,871
55,062
57,368
47,482
49,845
Margen Financiero
3t14 vs.
3t14e
3t14
(e / c)
3t13
3t14 (e/c)
vs. 3t13
-56.8%
40.4%
44.8%
46.3%
50.2%
13.5%
12.8%
22.8%
22.8%
57.5%
54.5%
64.2%
57.7%
3.0%
5.1%
7.6%
8.9%
27.0%
2.8%
40.3%
17.2%
7.3%
11.4%
14.3%
14.00%
6.5%
12.4%
12.8%
12.31%
9.2%
18.2%
20.9%
20.5%
8.7%
17.2%
19.9%
19.7%
Utilidad Neta
3t14 vs. 3t14e
3t13
3t14
(e / c)
3t14 (e/c)
vs. 3t13
ROA
3t14 vs.
3t14e
3t13
ROE
3t14
(e / c)
3t13
3t14
(e / c)
GENTERA
M
28-oct
3,069
3,605
17.5%
9,930
12,152
22.4%
491
655
33.4%
65.1%
9.8%
32.9%
26.7%
GFINBUR
C
28-oct
5,908
9,874
67.1%
3,744
4,631
23.7%
3,275
4,956
51.3%
3.0%
6.1%
14.7%
26.3%
GFNORTE
M
23-oct
17,472
17,009
-2.7%
9,930
10,923
10.0%
3,220
4,042
25.5%
GFREGIO
M
28-oct
1,824
2,045
12.1%
848
1,023
20.7%
329
419
27.2%
SANMEX
M
Mediana
Prom. Ponderado
04-nov
13,664
15,163
11.0%
12.1%
13.7%
9,111
9,288
1.9%
20.7%
13.3%
5,882
4,797
-18.4%
27.2%
12.7%
41,938
Fibras
47,697
-14.2%
-1.3%
-6.7%
33,563
Ingresos Totales
Fecha
Reporte
DANHOS
M
24-oct
405
406
FUNO
M
28-oct
1,061
2,131
100.9%
FIBRAMQ
M
27-oct
445
589
32.2%
0.7%
TERRA
M
Mediana
Prom. Ponderado
27-oct
254
430
68.9%
50.6%
64.2%
0.5%
0.1%
3t13
3t14 (e/c)
2,166
3,556
0.0%
2.9%
13,197
Ingreso Neto Operativo (NOI)
Tipo Est.
Emisora
38,017
9.7%
3t14 (e/c)
vs. 3t13
3t14 vs.
3t14e
0.2%
-0.2%
3t14
(e / c)
3t13
3t14 vs. 3t14e
-2.4%
311
308
-1.1%
1,705
88.8%
376
504
34.0%
0.9%
244
410
67.6%
50.8%
59.5%
0.6%
-0.2%
2,926
3t13
3t14
(e / c)
3t14 vs.
3t14e
-7.8%
304
297
-2.2%
1,035
14.4%
260
296
13.9%
160
259
61.6%
14.2%
15.9%
1,628
1,886
1.9%
14.0%
17.3%
1.6%
17.5%
19.7%
2.9%
1.9%
24.1%
18.6%
Margen NOI
3t14 (e/c)
vs. 3t13
904
1.5%
1.5%
0.0%
4.5%
Utilidad Neta (FFO)
3t14 (e/c)
vs. 3t13
903
1,835
14,869
17.4%
3t13
3t14
(e / c)
Margen FFO
3t13
3t14
(e / c)
76.8%
75.9%
74.9%
85.1%
80.0%
85.2%
73.2%
48.5%
0.3%
84.4%
85.6%
58.3%
50.3%
0.2%
-1.5%
96.1%
84.8%
84.7%
95.3%
82.8%
82.5%
62.9%
68.9%
75.1%
60.2%
55.2%
53.8%
Cifras nominales en millones de MXN$
(e / c) Dato estimado cuando la empresa no ha reportado. Dato conocido cuando la empresa ha presentado su reporte
M Estimado Monex
C Estimado de Conceso
T Estimados por Tendencia
Crecimiento en EBITDA mejor a lo esperado
Crecimiento en EBITDA en línea a lo esperado
Crecimiento en EBITDA peor a lo esperado
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
2
Mercado Accionario
Directorio
Dirección de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil
Carlos A. González Tabares
Director de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil
T. 5231-4521
[email protected]
Eduardo Ávila Vargas
Subdirector de Análisis Económico
T. 5231-0489
[email protected]
Daniela Ruíz Zárate
Analista Económico
T. 5231-0489
[email protected]
Fernando E. Bolaños S.
Analista Bursátil / Industrial, Minero y Petroquímico
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 0720
[email protected]
J. Roberto Solano Pérez
Analista Bursátil / Construcción, Vivienda y Fibras
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451
[email protected]
Verónica Uribe Boyzo
Analista Bursátil
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4782
[email protected]
Stephany Ramírez Rojas
Analista Bursátil
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4262
[email protected]
J. Francisco Caudillo Lira
Analista Técnico Sr.
T. 5231-0016
[email protected]
Astianax Cuanalo Dorantes
Analista Sr. de Sistemas de Información
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4790
[email protected]
Política de
Recomendaciones
Compra
Aquellas emisoras cuyo rendimiento esperado supere en más del 5% el rendimiento esperado para el IPyC.
Mantener
Aquellas emisoras cuyo rendimiento esperado se ubique +/-5% respecto al rendimiento esperado para el IPyC.
Venta
Aquellas emisoras cuyo rendimiento sea inferior en más del 5% el rendimiento esperado para el IPyC.
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
3
Mercado Accionario
Disclaimer
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
4