Submission to the Department of Industry for the 2015
Submission to the Department of Industry for the 2015‐16 Skilled Occupation List November 2014 Contents 1. The Department of Employment’s roles and responsibilities .................................................................. 2 2. The Department of Employment’s submission ........................................................................................ 2 3. Overview of the Australian labour market ............................................................................................... 3 Professionals and Technicians and Trades Workers ........................................................................... 3 4. Ensuring good employment outcomes for migrants and Australian residents ........................................ 6 5. The Department of Employment’s recommendations ............................................................................. 7 Attachment A ― Analysis and evidence for the occupation recommended for inclusion .......................... 9 3241‐11 Panelbeater ...................................................................................................................... 9 Attachment B ― Analysis and evidence for occupations recommended for removal .............................. 10 2211 Accountants ............................................................................................................................ 10 2326‐11 Urban and Regional Planner .............................................................................................. 12 2347‐11 Veterinarian ....................................................................................................................... 13 2414‐11 Secondary School Teacher ................................................................................................. 14 2513 Occupational and Environmental Health Professions ............................................................. 16 2711‐11 Barrister ............................................................................................................................. 18 2713‐11 Solicitor .............................................................................................................................. 19 Health‐related professions ............................................................................................................... 20 2346‐11 Medical Laboratory Scientist ................................................................................... 21 2523‐12 Dentist...................................................................................................................... 22 Resource‐related professions .......................................................................................................... 23 1335‐13 Production Manager (Mining) ................................................................................. 23 2336 Mining Engineers .......................................................................................................... 24 2349‐12 Metallurgist .............................................................................................................. 25 Attachment C ― Background information for flagged labour markets and those recommended for flagging .......................................................................................................................................................... 26 2322‐12 Surveyor ............................................................................................................................. 26 2527‐12 Speech Pathologist ............................................................................................................. 26 321 and 324 Automotive Trades ...................................................................................................... 27 33 Construction Trades .................................................................................................................... 28 233 Engineering Professions ............................................................................................................ 30 322 and 323 Engineering Trades ...................................................................................................... 32 26 ICT Professions ............................................................................................................................ 34 Department of Employment Page 1 1. The Department of Employment’s roles and responsibilities The Department of Employment is a key provider to the Australian Government of information and analysis about the Australian labour market, including the supply of, and demand for, labour. Consistent with this, it also plays a central role in advising the Government on employment and workplace relations issues. The Department is responsible for national policies and programmes that help Australians find and keep employment and work in safe, fair and productive workplaces. 2. The Department of Employment’s submission The Department of Employment’s submission is based on the following understanding of the role of the Skilled Occupation List (SOL) in Australia’s migration programme. “The Skilled Occupation List identifies occupations where independent skilled migrants will assist in meeting the medium to long term skill needs of the Australian economy. Independent migrants with skills in these occupations will assist in meeting skill needs that cannot be met through employer and state sponsored migration programmes, or efforts aimed at training and employing Australians”1. In making recommendations, the submission looks beyond the current subdued labour market and focuses on occupations which are key to supporting a recovery in economic activity in the future and in which supply is likely to fall short of employer needs over the longer term and occupations in which applicants are likely to face strong competition for jobs. In this context, the Department notes the need for significant consideration to be given to the appropriateness of occupations on the SOL to ensure that employment opportunities for local graduates and workers are not compromised independent Skill Stream applicants who are invited to apply are likely to find meaningful work which is relevant to their pre‐migration skills and experience, no matter where they choose to settle in Australia. This submission is based on an extensive array of labour market information. While the Department has information about the labour market across all occupations, it undertakes specific research into a range of skilled occupations, and this provides a sound evidence base for determining current and future trends in labour demand and supply. Sources include its own primary research, undertaken through discussions with employers about their recruitment experiences for more than 100 occupations and through the monitoring of advertised vacancy levels compilation and analysis of an array of data from external sources, such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics, industry reports and surveys, and consultation with key stakeholders analysis of trends in domestic training based on Department of Education and National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) statistics complemented by graduate employment outcomes information from Graduate Careers Australia (GCA) and NCVER the Department’s published projections of employment over the five years from 2013 to 2018. In the past year, the Department has undertaken primary research into more than 100 skilled occupations which are currently on the SOL. Where this intelligence supports a view about the appropriateness of the inclusion of an occupation on the SOL, the Department has made recommendations. There are, however, some occupations on the SOL for which there is little information from available statistics, submissions or detailed studies about the current or future labour market conditions and job opportunities for local and migrant job seekers. The Department is of the view that close consideration should be given to whether these occupations should remain on the SOL. Information included in the submission is current at November 2014. 1 Department of Industry, https://consult.industry.gov.au/skilled‐occupations‐list‐team/2015‐16‐sol‐submission‐page (accessed 30 October 2014) Department of Employment Page 2 3. Overview of the Australian labour market Against the backdrop of sub‐par global growth and slightly below‐trend economic activity domestically, labour market conditions in Australia have softened in recent years. In particular, over the year to September 20142 employment has increased only modestly, by 121,900 (or 1.1 per cent), well below the annual average rate of 1.9 per cent recorded over the last decade full‐time employment has been particularly weak, increasing by just 18,700 (or 0.2 per cent) to 8,028,900, while part‐time employment has risen by 103,200 (or 3.0 per cent) to 3,563,600 the unemployment rate has risen by 0.3 percentage points, to stand at 6.1 per cent, the highest rate recorded since July 2003 the participation rate has fallen by 0.2 percentage points, to stand at 64.5 per cent, well below its peak of 65.8 per cent recorded in November 2010. Softer labour market conditions have been observed across Capital Cities and Rest of State areas over the year to September 20143. Employment rose by 100,500 (or 1.3 per cent) in Capital Cities, while in the Rest of State areas it increased by a modest 33,800 (or 0.9 per cent). In Capital City areas, the level of unemployment rose by 44,200 (or 9.9 per cent) and by 24,500 (or 10.8 per cent) in Rest of State areas. Against this backdrop, the unemployment rate in the Capital Cities rose by 0.4 percentage points, to 5.8 per cent. In the Rest of State areas, the unemployment rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 6.4 per cent. Professionals and Technicians and Trades Workers Employment growth for professionals has been very strong over the past five years and professionals are projected to have the greatest share of employment growth of any occupational group over the five years to November 20184. The Department’s research5, though, indicates that the growth in supply for many professions is now outstripping demand, creating a surplus of graduates. Employment growth for professionals continues to be slightly stronger than that for technicians and trades workers, rising by 2.6 per cent (or 66,700) over the year to August 2014 compared with an increase of 2.2 per cent (or 37,100) for technicians and trades workers6. Vacancy levels increased more strongly for technicians and trades workers, though, over the year to August 2014 (up by 17.8 per cent) than for professionals (12.1 per cent)7. The labour market for professionals has softened considerably, particularly over recent years. Although the labour market for technicians and trades workers is also currently subdued, impacted by declining Manufacturing and Mining activity levels, this easing has not been to the same extent as that for professionals (see Figure 1)8. 2 ABS, Labour Force, Australia, September 2014, seasonally adjusted data ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, September 2014, three‐month averages of original data 4 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend and Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 5 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 6 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 7 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, trend 8 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 3 Department of Employment Page 3 Figure 1. Proportion of vacancies filled (%) and average number of applicants and suitable applicants per vacancy (no.), Professions and Technicians and Trades, 2008‐09 to 2013‐14 Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers who have Recently Advertised Graduate outcomes Employment outcomes for domestic higher education graduates have weakened considerably over the last five years. In 2013, 71.3 per cent of bachelor degree graduates found full‐time employment after graduating, down by 13.9 percentage points since 2008, to its lowest level since 19939. Not only have full‐time employment outcomes fallen for bachelor degree graduates, there is also evidence to suggest that larger numbers of those who do find a job are working in occupations which require lower skill levels (than their degree would normally confer), or are working fewer hours than they would like, suggesting that underemployment of graduates is also rising10. The Department of Education projects that employment outcomes for higher education graduates are likely to deteriorate further, with around 70 per cent expected to be in full‐time employment in 2017‐18. Put another way, by 2017‐18, almost one in three graduates will still be seeking full‐time employment four months after completing their degree11. Employment outcomes for apprentices and trainees12 following completion of their training are strong. In 2013, 92.3 per cent of graduates who undertook their training as part of an apprenticeship or traineeship in a trade occupation course remained in employment after training. 9 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 10 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables; ABS, Survey of Education and Work, 2013 11 Department of Education, Budget Statements 2014‐15 12 NCVER, Student Outcomes, 2013. Includes graduates in full‐time and part‐time employment six months after completion of training. Apprentices and trainees are already in employment during training Department of Employment Page 4 Figure 2: Proportion of graduates in employment, Bachelor Degree and Apprentices and Trainees, 2008 to 2013 (%) Sources: GCA, Gradstats and NCVER, Student Outcomes, various issues Training trends Over the five years to 2013, the number of commencing higher education domestic students rose by 34.8 per cent. The impact of the extra supply of university qualified graduates is yet to be fully felt in the labour market, with completions (up by 22.5 per cent over the period) lagging behind the sharp rise in commencements13. Apprenticeship and traineeship figures14 for certificate III and higher qualifications (the main entry level for skilled jobs) show a fall in commencements over the five years to 2013 (down by 6.7 per cent) although completions have increased markedly over this time period (up by 33.8 per cent). The fall in commencements at the certificate III or higher level has been dramatic in recent years, with a fall of 26.0 per cent between 2012 and 2013. That said, technicians and trades workers apprenticeships and traineeships have been more resilient (over the year). Low apprentice numbers has been raised as a concern by a number of employers, as well as by Master Builders Australia and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry 15. Labour market outlook Looking ahead, a number of forward indicators of labour demand suggest that employment growth is likely to remain subdued in the short to medium term. The resources sector continues to transition to its less labour‐intensive production phase, and the still relatively high Australian dollar (despite depreciating) continues to produce challenging conditions in the large, labour intensive sectors of the economy, such as Manufacturing and Tourism. The Treasury Budget forecasts16 are for employment to increase by 1½ per cent in both 2014‐15 and 2015‐16, with the unemployment rate expected to be 6¼ per cent in the June quarter 2015 and to remain at that level in the June quarter 2016. Over the longer term, the ageing of the population poses a significant challenge for the Australian labour market, as it continues to place further downward pressure on the labour force participation rate. 13 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table NCVER, Apprentices and Trainees, March 2014, estimates 15 Weekend Australian, Training drought sparks skills fear, 14 June 2014; Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 16 The Treasury, Budget Papers, 2014‐15 14 Department of Employment Page 5 Although increased higher education numbers and softer demand for some professionals suggests that significant shortages are unlikely to re‐emerge in the short to medium term; in the trades, low training numbers combined with a pick‐up in economic and business activity, would likely result in some shortages of trade skills. The Department’s historical skill shortage information indicates that the trades labour market is prone to widespread shortages during times of strong economic growth. Shortages of construction trades workers are already re‐emerging. Research undertaken in late 2014 shows that the majority of construction trades are now in national shortage 17. 4. Ensuring good employment outcomes for migrants and Australian residents The Department recognises the significant contribution that skilled migration has made, and continues to make, to the Australian labour market and, more broadly, the Australian economy. Skilled migration supplements locally developed skills and enables employers to have access to the skilled workers they need to grow their businesses. It is important that the SOL and associated skilled migration categories remain focused on expected labour market conditions and the job prospects of migrants and local workers in the medium to longer term and not on the performance of other sectors, such as international education. The Department notes calls by some peak accounting bodies to amend the current system to take account of international education “The current system is additionally flawed, according to the submission, because it does not take into account international education when considering skilled migration” 18. Suitability of occupations for the SOL Skill Stream applicants who are invited to apply under visa categories pertinent to the SOL are able to choose their place of residence within Australia and are not necessarily matched to specific employment. This highlights the importance of occupations on the SOL being those in which there are significant numbers of jobs in the Australian labour market and which offer a reasonable chance of employment in a broad range of locations. The Department notes that in relation to occupations (regardless of the SkillSelect process) their ongoing inclusion on the SOL sends a message to potential migrants that they will readily gain employment some are ill‐defined or there is insufficient evidence to warrant their inclusion employer sponsored programmes (where visa applicants are job‐matched as a condition of visa grant) are more appropriate for some occupations to ensure good labour market outcomes for migrants and provide Australian employers with workers who have the precise skills and experience they need. In light of the subdued labour market conditions expected over the next few years, the Department considers that the SOL should be restricted to relatively large occupations for which employment is widely spread, and that other migration arrangements be used for smaller occupational labour markets. Consideration should be given to excluding occupations (other than medical practitioner specialisations) which have small employment numbers (perhaps fewer than 1500 nationally), with migration in these occupations available only through employer sponsored arrangements. Results from the Department of Immigration and Border Protection, Continuous Survey of Australia’s Migrants which provide evidence about migrants’ employment outcomes, are clearly vital to understanding the prospects for migrants who are granted visas under the various independent skilled migration categories. 17 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research; HIA, Trades Report, September quarter 2014 The Australian, Skilled migrant policy needs flexibility, 12 November 2014 18 Department of Employment Page 6 Australian graduates Australia is producing larger numbers of higher education and vocational education and training graduates across a range of fields of education, including in Health (which is an area of particularly strong employment growth). This has assisted in addressing a number of persistent shortages, notably in the professions. That said, weakening higher education graduate employment outcomes also need to be considered in the determination of occupations for the SOL. Although the visa categories to which the SOL relates favour workers with some years of experience, ensuring there are maximum opportunities for Australian graduates to gain employment in their field of study must be a high priority in any policy and programme settings. Expectations of potential migrants The Department recommends that the criteria for occupations to be eligible for the SOL and the nature of the SOL be better communicated on relevant websites. All listings of SOL occupations published on Australian Government websites should be accompanied by information which provides potential migrants with a sound understanding that the occupations on the SOL can change over time and includes caveats about the basis of the SOL. The information should also highlight the fact that, while there are opportunities in these occupations in Australia they are not necessarily available in all locations, migrants could face strong competition for available jobs and in some occupations, such as engineering, employers may demand very specific knowledge and experience. 5. The Department of Employment’s recommendations Many of the recommendations for changes to the SOL reflect the enhanced supply of professionals, and the weakening in labour market conditions for higher education graduates. The Department also, though, recommends the addition of one trade occupation for which shortages are long standing and in which domestic training is unable to meet demand. Attachment A provides analysis and evidence in support of recommendations for additions to the SOL. Attachment B provides analysis and evidence in support of recommendations for removal. Attachment C includes background for occupations which were flagged by the former Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency in 2014 for monitoring and those for which the Department considers flagging to be appropriate. These are: surveyor, speech pathologist, automotive trades, engineering professionals, engineering trades, construction trades and ICT professions. Summary of recommendations Add 3241‐11 Panelbeater Remove Accountants 2211‐11 Accountant (General) 2211‐12 Management Accountant 2211‐13 Taxation Accountant Other professions 2326‐11 Urban and Regional Planner 2347‐11 Veterinarian 2414‐11 Secondary School Teacher 2513‐11 Environmental Health Officer 2513‐12 Occupational Health and Safety Adviser 2711‐11 Barrister 2713‐11 Solicitor Department of Employment Page 7 Health‐related professions 2346‐11 Medical Laboratory Scientist 2523‐12 Dentist Resource‐related professions 1335‐13 Production Manager (Mining) 2336‐11 Mining Engineer (except Petroleum) 2336‐12 Petroleum Engineer 2349‐12 Metallurgist Flag (or continue to flag) ICT professions 2611‐11 ICT Business Analyst 2611‐12 Systems Analyst 2613‐11 Analyst Programmer 2613‐12 Developer Programmer 2613‐13 Software Engineer 2631‐11 Computer Network and Systems Engineer 2633‐11 Telecommunications Engineer 2633‐12 Telecommunications Network Engineer Department of Employment Page 8 Attachment A ― Analysis and evidence for the occupation recommended for inclusion 3241‐11 Panelbeater The Department recommends the addition of 3241‐11 Panelbeater. The key issue in this labour market is the persistence of shortages. National shortages have been recorded continuously for the past 15 years. This labour market is particularly tight, with employers in every state and territory experiencing significant difficulty recruiting these trades workers. In late 2013 (latest available research), surveyed employers filled just 38 per cent of their panelbeater vacancies and attracted less than one suitable applicant, on average, per vacancy19. While nearly all employers require applicants to be qualified, less than two thirds of applicants hold a relevant qualification. Training levels are low. NCVER data show the number of apprentice and trainee commencements in related automotive repair training (at the Certificate III or higher level) fell by 29.7 per cent over the five years to 201320. Outlook The Department of Employment21 expects employment of panelbeaters to fall slightly (down by 400 or 1.9 per cent) over the five years to November 2018. That said, there is no indication that the shortages of panelbeaters will ease. Local additions to this workforce may be low over the next few years and domestic training is unlikely to meet demand. Job opportunities are expected to remain sound for local and migrant panelbeaters. 19 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research NCVER, Apprentices and Trainees, March 2014, estimates for panelbeaters, and vehicle body builders, trimmers and painters Department of Employment, Employment projections to November 2018 20 21 Department of Employment Page 9 Attachment B ― Analysis and evidence for occupations recommended for removal 2211 Accountants The Department notes the reduction to the cap for accountants in 2014, but continues to be concerned about employment prospects in this profession and the employment expectations of international students. It recommends the removal of 2211‐11 Accountant (General) 2211‐12 Management Accountant 2211‐13 Taxation Accountant. There are large numbers of qualified applicants competing for vacancies, historically low numbers of advertised vacancies and weakening graduate outcomes. These factors suggest it is improbable that shortages of accountants will re‐emerge over the next three to five years and that migrants are likely to continue to face difficulty gaining employment in this occupation. Shortages of accountants have not been apparent since 2008 and, in 2014, there continue to be large numbers of qualified accountants competing for jobs, with employers noting they can be very selective about the accountants they recruit22. There has been a steady rise in the number of applicants and suitable applicants vying for accounting positions, with around 36.0 applicants per vacancy in 2014, of whom 5.8 were considered to be suitable. Of particular note is the fact that there are around 27 applicants per vacancy, on average, who hold accounting qualifications but are regarded by employers as being unsuitable. Demand indicators for this labour market are mixed. Employment growth23 has been strong over the past decade and, although ABS data suggest there has been a significant increase over the past year, vacancy numbers24 for accountants have fallen significantly since 2008 and have yet to recover. A number of other indicators also suggest the labour market for accountants is subdued. The Hays Quarterly Hotspots25 comments that demand for permanent roles in accounting professions has increased, although it notes that in some industries demand is for niche roles. Hays also comments on the number of employers who are willing to wait for a candidate with the “right cultural fit, even if the role then remains unfilled for some time.” The Clarius Skills Indicator26 shows a surplus of accountants, auditors and company secretaries in the March quarter 2014, which it suggests is due to weak demand for accountants. The oversupply of these professionals increased to 1600 in the March quarter 2014. A key issue for this labour market is the imbalance between domestic and international student numbers. In 2013, for every domestic commencing student, there were 2.5 international students27. For domestic students, bachelor degree commencements have increased in recent years, from a low of 3000 in 2011 to 3450 in 2013. Bachelor completions28 fell by 3.1 per cent over the five years to 2013. Nonetheless, there were around 5800 bachelor completions in 2013. 22 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 24 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, 12 month moving average 25 Hays, Hays Quarterly Report October – December 2014, http://www.hays.com.au/report/index.htm?ver=d (accessed 29 October 2014) 26 Clarius Group, Clarius Skills Indicator, March 2014 (released May 2014) 27 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table 28 Completions are by course specialisation which provides a more accurate measure of potential supply as it includes students major in accounting even if their degree is in another field of education. Commencements are not available by specialisation. 23 Department of Employment Page 10 International commencements across all levels of higher education fell by 8.3 per cent between 2008 and 2013, but increased by 15.8 per cent between 2012 and 2013, driven by growth at the postgraduate level. International completions29 decreased by 7.1 per cent over the five years to 2013, although bachelor completions rose by 21.3 per cent over the period. There is evidence of a surplus of accountants at the entry level, with graduates experiencing deteriorating outcomes and relatively low pay rates. This may be due, in part, to firms downsizing their graduate intakes in recent years30. Graduate outcomes31 for bachelor degree graduates have declined markedly since 2008, with 77.4 per cent in full‐time employment in 2013 (compared with 88.6 per cent in 2008), to the lowest level in 20 years. Outcomes for masters degree graduates also fell over the period, from 75.2 per cent in 2008 to 61.7 per cent in 2013. o Of those who did find full‐time work in 2013, around half of bachelor degree graduates secured a job as an accountant, while around 14 per cent were employed in lower skilled clerical and administrative positions. A smaller proportion of masters degree graduates who gained employment found work as an accountant (43 per cent in 2013). In 2013, the median wage32 for bachelor degree accountants was $50,000 (below the average for all bachelor degree graduates of $52,500) which equates to 71.1 per cent of the annual male average weekly earnings, down from 79.1 per cent in 2008. A recent report by Deakin University33 highlights the difficulty international graduates have in securing professional work in Australia, including in accounting, with CPA Australia and Chartered Accountants NZ quoted as stating that difficulties overseas graduates have finding jobs are “well understood”34. Outlook The accountant workforce is relatively young35 and turnover is below average (5.2 per cent per annum compared with 11.4 for all occupations), suggesting that replacement demand will be low over the medium term36. The Department projects strong employment growth (of 18,300 or 10.6 per cent)37. Despite the anticipated growth in employment, vacancy numbers are not showing significant signs of recovery, and supply is expected to exceed demand. Graduate outcomes are likely to continue to weaken, with international students experiencing difficulty gaining employment as accountants. While the Department recommends removing these occupations from the SOL, it notes the importance of weighing up the employment outcomes of, particularly masters, graduates against any risk of the re‐ emergence of shortages in the longer term if a fall in international student numbers reduces new supply. 29 Completions are by course specialisation which provides a more accurate measure of potential supply as it includes students major in accounting even if their degree is in another field of education. Commencements are not available by specialisation. 30 Australian Financial Review, Accountant graduates face job market squeeze, 22 May 2013 31 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 32 GCA, Graduate Salaries, 2013. This is the starting salary of a bachelor degree graduate in first full‐time employment and less than 25 years old 33 Deakin University, Australian International Graduates and the transition to employment, 2014 34 Australian Financial Review, Accounting bodies do about‐face on jobs for foreign students, 28 October 2014 35 ABS, Labour Force, 2013 annual average 36 ABS, Labour Mobility, 2013 37 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 Department of Employment Page 11 2326‐11 Urban and Regional Planner The Department recommends the removal of 2326‐11 Urban and Regional Planner. It is likely that domestic supply will be more than adequate to meet medium term demand, and that graduates in this field will continue to face strong competition for positions. Shortages of urban and regional planners are not expected to re‐emerge. There have not been shortages of urban and regional planners since 2008. Since then, employers have experienced little difficulty recruiting, attracting large fields of qualified and suitable applicants. Employers commonly require applicants who have a sound knowledge of state and territory Environment Protection Authority and local government acts and regulations38. The labour market for urban and regional planners is soft. Employment39 peaked in August 2012, and has fallen by 22.4 per cent since then. There were only about a quarter as many vacancies advertised in the year to August 2014 as there were in the year to October 2008 (peak)40. In June 2014, surveyed employers filled 87 per cent of their vacancies and attracted large numbers of qualified applicants (14.5, on average, per vacancy). There were more than twice as many suitable applicants compared with the previous year (an average of 6.9 per vacancy compared with 3.1 in June 2013)41. Outputs from domestic training42 have been increasing, with completions in courses specialising in Urban Design and Regional Planning rising by 41.9 per cent over the five years to 2013, with particularly strong growth at the bachelor degree level. Employment outcomes43 for those who graduated with a bachelor degree in Urban Design and Regional Planning weakened over the five years to 2013. In 2013, 67.9 per cent of those available for full‐time work had secured a full‐time job, 25.4 percentage points lower than in 2008 and below the 2013 average for all bachelor degree graduates (71.3 per cent). o Around two thirds of those who were in full‐time employment in 2013, found a position as an urban and regional planner. Outlook Looking ahead, employment growth is projected to be slightly above average over the five years to November 201844 (increasing by 8.2 per cent, compared with 7.2 per cent for all occupations). This occupation has a relatively young age profile45, with the median age below the national workforce average. Staff turnover is also low46, suggesting that there will be little replacement demand in the period ahead. Domestic supply is expected to be more than adequate to meet demand over the next three to five years. 38 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, 12 month moving average 41 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 42 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table 43 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 44 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 45 ABS, Labour Force, 2013 annual average 46 ABS, Labour Mobility, 2013 39 40 Department of Employment Page 12 2347‐11 Veterinarian The Department recommends the removal of 2347‐11 Veterinarian. Training numbers have risen markedly and there is now some surplus capacity in this labour market with large fields of graduates applying for vacancies. Over the next few years, graduate numbers are expected to rise further and graduate employment outcomes weaken. Domestic supply will be more than adequate to meet medium term demand. There has been strong growth in employment of veterinarians in recent years. ABS Labour Force estimates are variable but show a marked rise over the past five years47. The number of registered veterinarians has increased significantly over the past five years (up by 16 per cent) to number 10,629 at 30 June 201448. The number of advertised vacancies for veterinarians has, though, been falling since late 2009. There were one third fewer vacancies advertised for veterinarians in the twelve months to August 2014 than there were in the year to December 2009 (peak)49. Veterinarians have not been in shortage since 2010 and in 201450, employers recruited without marked difficulty, attracting strong fields of qualified applicants (6.4, on average, per vacancy). Labour Force data51 indicate this workforce is young, with almost two in three veterinarians aged between 25 and 44 years, compared with 45 per cent for all occupations. Domestic training has increased and there are now seven universities offering relevant courses52. Commencements in bachelor degree courses leading to provisional registration as a veterinary practitioner rose by 52 per cent between 2008 and 2013. Completions have also increased, up by 41 per cent over the period53. Employment outcomes for bachelor degree graduates in Veterinary Science, are above the all bachelor degree graduate average but have fallen markedly. In 2013, 78.8 per cent were in full‐time employment, down from 91.8 per cent in 200854. Outcomes for these graduates have been trending downwards since 2004, when 98.0 per cent of students who graduated in this field found full‐time employment within four months of graduation. Around 85 per cent of bachelor degree graduates who are employed work as veterinarians55. An Australian Veterinary Association report has recommended a cap be placed on the number of veterinary science student places56. In addition, a number of media articles note the surplus of graduates57. Outlook Employment growth is projected to be strong over the five years to November 2018, increasing by 14.8 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent for all occupations58. Further increases in completions are expected, given the continuing growth in commencements, and local supply is expected to be more than adequate. 47 ABS, Labour Force Survey, August 2014, Department of Employment trend Australasian Veterinary Board Council, Number of registered vets throughout Australia and New Zealand, June 2014, customised table 49 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, 12 month moving average 50 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 51 ABS, Labour Force, 2013 annual average 52 Australasian Veterinary Board Council, www.avbc.asn.au/Media/.../VetScienceQualsRecognisedOct2014.docx (accessed 05 November 2014) 53 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table 54 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 55 ibid 56 Australian Veterinary Association, Submission to the Review of the demand‐driven funding system, 12 December 2013 57 The Australian, Surfeit of vets prompts call to cap places, 22 January 2014; Vet Practice Magazine, Fair Supply, 14 May 2014 58 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 48 Department of Employment Page 13 2414‐11 Secondary School Teacher The Department recommends the removal of 2414‐11 Secondary School Teacher. There are very few recruitment difficulties for secondary school teachers and in the small number of cases where employers do experience problems filling vacancies, it is in very specific locations or for particular teaching specialisations (which vary by location). It is consequently considered to be more appropriate that employer sponsored arrangements be used to meet any skill needs for secondary school teachers. Graduate employment outcomes are below average and training numbers are rising strongly. Widespread shortages of secondary school teachers have not been identified through the Department of Employment’s research59 at any time over the past three decades. State government education authorities confirm that there are generally adequate supplies of secondary school teachers, with some reporting that there are relatively large numbers on standby lists. In 2014, employers surveyed by the Department filled 91 per cent of their secondary school teacher vacancies (the same proportion were filled in 2013). There were 10.6 applicants per vacancy on average who held teaching qualifications, suggesting applicants face strong competition for positions. Although the Department’s research notes that shortages are not apparent, some employers report that they experience difficulty recruiting for specialist teachers in subjects such as mathematics, science, information technology and Languages Other Than English. Even in these subjects, though, most employers readily fill their vacancies and have the choice of multiple suitable applicants. Some state education departments have large lists of teaching candidates. For example, at March 2014 in the public system in NSW there were about 18,900 secondary school teachers (up from 17,250 in 2013) seeking employment. The NSW Government’s views are consistent with the Department’s research, indicating that “there is also an adequate supply of secondary teachers, except in the areas of mathematics, science with physics, some subjects in technological and applied studies, some specialist teachers and some specific subjects in particular geographical locations.” and notes that “there is a more than adequate supply of secondary teachers… in creative arts and personal development, health and physical education”60. ABS Labour Force data show a fall of 14.8 per cent in the employment of secondary school teachers over the five years to August 2014 (and 7.4 per cent over the past year)61. Advertised vacancy levels62 have also fallen over the past five years, with 43 per cent fewer vacancies advertised in the year to August 2014 compared with the year to August 2009. That said, there has been a rise of 20 per cent over the past two years. Employment outcomes for bachelor degree graduates in Teacher Education: Secondary have weakened significantly over recent years and are now below the all bachelor degree average of 71.3 per cent. In 2013, 65.9 per cent of 2012 Teacher Education: Secondary bachelor degree graduates were employed full‐time, down from 85.0 per cent in 200763. The Australian Institute of Teaching and School Leadership64 reports that, for 2012 secondary graduates 14 per cent were not working, 48 per cent were working full‐time in schools and 25 per cent were working part‐time in schools. 59 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research NSW Government: Department of Education and Communities, 2014 Teaching Workforce Supply and Demand: School teachers in NSW public schools 61 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 62 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, 12 month moving average 63 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 64 Australian Institute for Teaching and School Leadership, Initial Teacher Education: Data Report, 2014 60 Department of Employment Page 14 The number of domestic students commencing a Teacher Education: Secondary course increased significantly over the five years to 201365. There was a rise of 29.5 per cent in bachelor degrees and 34.8 per cent in postgraduate courses. Completions have also risen at the postgraduate level (up by 36.6 per cent over the five years), but have remained relatively stable for bachelor degrees (up by 1.8 per cent). The NSW Department of Education and Communities Teaching Workforce Supply and Demand: School teachers in NSW public schools 2014 states that “the growth, however, has not aligned with the department’s needs. For example, between 2006 and 2012, creative arts had more than twice the number of graduates as mathematics, an area of potential shortage…” Outlook The workforce is ageing, ABS data show that the median age is 43 years66, suggesting there will be increased demand to replace teachers who retire over the next decade. In addition, future employment growth is expected to be slightly above average (up by 9.9 per cent between November 2013 and November 2018)67 but staff turnover is low68. Despite the age profile, job opportunities for replacement of existing teachers are unlikely to be large. The NSW Department of Education and Communities69 notes that, in that state “From 2014, retirement rates are projected to vary between three and four percent until 2020 when the rate will decrease slowly, as by then many of the baby‐boomers will have already retired.” Graduates are, therefore, likely to continue to face difficulty gaining initial employment in the medium to long term and recruitment difficulties are likely to continue to be restricted to particular subject areas. 65 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table ABS, Labour Force, 2013 annual average 67 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 68 ABS, Labour Mobility, 2013 69 NSW Government: Department of Education and Communities, 2014 Teaching Workforce Supply and Demand: School teachers in NSW public schools 66 Department of Employment Page 15 2513 Occupational and Environmental Health Professions The Department recommends the removal of 2513‐11 Environmental Health Officer 2513‐12 Occupational Health and Safety Adviser. Employment has been falling and research undertaken by the Department suggests that competition from local candidates for available jobs is very strong. In addition, large numbers of candidates are considered by employers to be unsuitable due to their lack of specific experience. Turnover of these workers is relatively low, and although a significant number of jobs are expected to be created over the next few years, migrants who are not job matched are likely to experience difficulty gaining employment in these occupations. Demand for occupational and environmental health professionals is readily met and there is little likelihood of shortages developing over the medium term. A number of indicators suggest that demand for these workers has fallen in recent years and in 2014, there were large fields of qualified applicants vying for vacancies70. Employment decreased by 14.8 per cent over the two years to August 201471. Vacancy levels were 56.2 per cent lower in the year to August 2014 than they were in the year to August 201272. Environmental Health Officer The Department’s skill shortage research73 shows that over the past few years employers have consistently and readily filled high proportions of their surveyed vacancies (97 per cent were filled in 2014) there are large fields of applicants, with an average of 20.0 per vacancy in 2014, of whom 11.5 were qualified and 5.3 were considered by employers to be suitable to be competitive in the labour market, applicants require specific experience or knowledge, for example previous local government experience or sound knowledge of relevant state or territory legislation. o More than half of the applicants who were appropriately qualified were considered to be unsuitable, mainly due to lack of experience in a similar role. ABS Census data74 show there were around 3500 environmental health officers employed in 2011. Bachelor degree graduate employment outcomes75 in Environmental Health are well above the all bachelor degree average. In 2013, 87.5 per cent of Environmental Health bachelor degree graduates were employed (compared with 71.3 per cent for all bachelor degree graduates), but they have weakened appreciably in recent years, down from 95.7 per cent in 2008. Occupational Health and Safety Adviser It is notable that this is a really diverse occupation in varying environments, with tasks such as developing, implementing and reviewing occupational health and safety plans and programmes undertaking inspections and audits and ensuring workplaces are compliant with legislation providing training, investigating workplace incidents and coordinating return to work arrangements. 70 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 72 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, 12 month moving average 73 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 74 ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 (more recent data are unavailable at the occupation level) 75 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 71 Department of Employment Page 16 ABS Census data76 show there were around 15,300 occupational health and safety advisers employed in 2011. There are very large fields of applicants for advertised occupational health and safety adviser positions77. There were 66.0 applicants, on average per vacancy in 2014, of whom 6.5 were considered by employers to be suitable. Most of the small number of unfilled vacancies surveyed in 2014 were in the Construction industry and required specialist skills. Around 90 per cent of applicants were considered to be unsuitable, but given the very large numbers of applicants there were still multiple suitable candidates for jobs. o The key reason for unsuitability was lack of industry‐specific experience (employer comments suggest that the skills of occupational health and safety advisers are not readily transferable between industries, roles or workplace settings). Noting that there are multiple pathways to employment in this occupation, it is still useful to look at bachelor degree graduate employment outcomes78. In 2013, 78.2 per cent of Occupational Health and Safety graduates were employed (well above the all bachelor degree average of 71.3 per cent), but they have weakened in recent years, down from 90.4 per cent in 2008. Outlook Indicators for the future are mixed but they do not suggest that shortages are likely to re‐emerge over the next few years. These occupations have low average turnover79 but the median age is slightly higher than the all occupations average (42 years compared with 40 years)80. Employment is projected to increase by 17.3 per cent over the five years to November 2018 (above the national average rate of 7.2 per cent). This equates to around 4500 new jobs81. Training pathways to these occupations are varied, making an assessment of future new supply difficult. ABS data from the Survey of Education and Work82 highlight this, showing that 42 per cent had a bachelor degree or higher qualification, 21 per cent held an advanced diploma or diploma, 21 per cent had a certificate III or IV and 15 per cent did not have post‐school qualifications. The industry base for these occupations is quite diverse, with around 20 per cent of workers employed in Public Administration and Safety, and 10 to 15 per cent in each of Mining, Manufacturing and Construction83. The subdued level of activity in Mining and Manufacturing is likely to dampen demand from those sectors over the next few years, although demand from the Construction sector may be boosted by strengthening activity in line with expected new infrastructure projects and residential construction. The key issue in this labour market is employers’ demands for very specific skills and experience (which are diverse and not readily transferable). For example, for occupational health and safety adviser there are around 60 unsuitable applicants per vacancy, many of whom have qualifications and experience. The lack of transferability of skills is likely to mean that migrants may face difficulty gaining employment. 76 ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 (more recent data are unavailable at the occupation level) Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 78 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 79 ABS, Labour Mobility, 2013 80 ABS, Labour Force Survey, annual average 2013 81 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 82 ABS, Survey of Education and Work, 2013 83 ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 77 Department of Employment Page 17 2711‐11 Barrister The Department recommends the removal of 2711‐11 Barrister. Employment in this occupation is restricted. Entry is usually from the ranks of solicitors and membership of a professional body at the state or territory level is required to practice as a barrister, meaning opportunities for migrants are restricted. Department of Employment Page 18 2713‐11 Solicitor The Department recommends the removal of 2713‐11 Solicitor. There are large fields of candidates for solicitor jobs and weakening employment outcomes for Law graduates, reflecting a strong rise in training and low levels of advertised vacancies. The Department’s research and recent media articles suggest there is a surplus of Law graduates. Employment growth for solicitors was relatively strong over the five years to August 2014 (up by 9.1 per cent) but employment fell over the year to August 201484. The number of advertised vacancies for solicitors, though, has been decreasing over the past five years and is now at an historically low level. There were 55.9 per cent fewer advertised vacancies for solicitors in the year to August 2014 compared with the year to August 200985. There are large numbers of qualified applicants for advertised vacancies86. Surveyed vacancies were generally filled in 2014 and, on average, there were 18.1 qualified applicants for each vacancy, of whom 4.1 were considered to be suitable. Employers advertising regional vacancies had markedly smaller fields of qualified candidates (an average of 10.5 per vacancy) but they still had the choice of multiple suitable applicants (2.5 per vacancy). There has been strong growth in higher education training in Law in recent years. Commencements in bachelor degree courses87 in Law rose by 28.9 per cent between 2008 and 2013, and growth has been even greater in postgraduate courses (up by 35.5 per cent). Completions have also risen markedly, with this trend most evident for postgraduate courses. Bachelor degree completions in Law rose by 15.7 per cent over the five years, but postgraduate completions increased by 55.2 per cent. Employment outcomes for graduates in Law remain well above the all bachelor degree graduate average, but have fallen markedly and very few of these graduates gain employment as solicitors88. In 2013, 78.5 per cent were employment, down from 91.0 per cent in 2008. A significant number of media articles89 comment that there is an oversupply of graduates while positions continue to be shed, particularly from larger firms. They quote concerns expressed by the Law Council of Australia and the Queensland Law Society about insufficient job opportunities for law graduates. Outlook Above average employment growth is expected for solicitors over the five years from 2013 to 2018, creating 8500 jobs90. It is notable, though, that there were more than 13,600 domestic course completions in the field of education Law in 201391 and higher commencements over the past few years suggest that completion numbers will continue to rise. 84 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, 12 month moving average 86 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 87 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table 88 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 89 Australian Financial Review, Too many graduates, not enough jobs, 4 April 2014; Adelaide Advertiser, Australia awash with law graduates, 26 May 2014; The Australian, Top‐tier firms axe hundreds of jobs, 4 July 2014; The Australian, Too many graduates in a world where 'clients' are recasting themselves as 'consumers', 18 July 2014; The Australian, Unis continue to churn out graduates, 31 October 2014 90 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 91 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table 85 Department of Employment Page 19 Health‐related professions The Department recommends the following occupations be removed from the SOL but other health related occupations already on the SOL be retained 2346‐11 Medical Laboratory Scientist 2523‐12 Dentist. Training numbers have risen strongly for these professions and employment outcomes have weakened, with graduates now experiencing relatively poor employment outcomes. The labour market for health professionals (the Department does not have information about medical practitioners) is complex. Due to the ageing of the population, health occupations are clearly going to be in strong demand over the longer term. There are, however, a number of health occupations currently on the SOL for which shortages have not been evident in recent years and which currently have insufficient employment opportunities for domestic graduates. The importance of retaining these graduates in the labour market to mitigate possible longer term shortages must be weighed against the need for experienced workers. While it is without question that an adequate supply of appropriately skilled and experienced health professionals is vital to meet the rising demand for health services, there continues to be significant evidence to suggest that recent graduates are increasingly experiencing difficulty entering the labour market. It can be common, though, for an excess of graduates to co‐exist with difficulties recruiting for experienced or specialist staff, or filling positions in regional areas. The labour market for health diagnostic and therapy professionals and nurses has eased over recent years and the widespread national shortages which characterised these labour markets in the decade to 2011 are no longer evident. Employers now generally fill their vacancies with relative ease92. Employers of health diagnostic and therapy professionals surveyed in 2014 generally attracted large fields of qualified applicants (on average, 8.1 per vacancy). Employers of registered nurses and midwives also attracted multiple qualified applicants (on average, 8.2 and 2.7 per vacancy, respectively). This easing has come alongside strong growth in employment. Employment of health diagnostic and therapy professionals grew strongly over the five years to August 2014 (up by 25.9 per cent or 33,000) to number around 160,40093. Advertised vacancy levels for these health professionals have been variable over this period, but have been increasing since late 2013.94 Employment of midwifery and nursing professionals experienced above average growth over the five years to August 2014 (up by 8.8 per cent or 20,900) to number around 257,80095. Advertised vacancy levels have been increasing since late 2013, following a two year period of decline96. Although there has been strong growth in employment, there has also been a significant rise in training numbers, resulting in a surplus of newly qualified professionals. Anecdotal evidence from employers97 suggests large numbers of graduates are now applying for vacancies requiring experienced workers. Consistent with this, graduate outcomes data suggest that while employment outcomes for graduates in Health remain above the all fields of education average, they are finding it more difficult to gain appropriate full‐time work98. 92 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 94 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, trend 95 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 96 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, 12 month moving average 97 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 98 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 93 Department of Employment Page 20 Outlook Demand is expected to remain strong as the Australian population ages, services become more readily accessible, and developments in medical technology expand health care options. Employment of health diagnostic and therapy professionals is projected to increase by 12.7 per cent (or around 18,900) over the five years to November 2018 (above the national average rate of 7.2 per cent) 99. Employment of registered nurses and midwives is also projected to experience strong growth (up by 15.4 per cent and 13.3 per cent, respectively). 2346‐11 Medical Laboratory Scientist Labour market conditions for medical laboratory scientists are weak. ABS estimates of employment are variable, but suggest there has been little growth over the last five years100. The number of advertised vacancies for medical laboratory scientists has remained relatively stable over the past year after trending downwards from mid 2012 (down by 35.2 per cent since June 2012)101. Employers surveyed through the Department’s research in 2014 filled almost all of their advertised vacancies (97 per cent), attracting very large fields of qualified applicants (22.9 per vacancy, on average). Employers were able to choose from multiple applicants to fill their roles, with 6.7 suitable applicants per vacancy. Training commencements and completions have increased significantly in this field. Commencements in bachelor degree courses in Medical Science rose by 53 per cent between 2008 and 2013, while the number of postgraduate commencements almost doubled over the period. Completions have also surged, with bachelor degree and postgraduate completions up by more than 80 per cent between 2008 and 2013. Completions are likely to increase further on the back of continuing growth in commencements102. Graduate outcomes for students studying Medical Science are weakening. Only 55.5 per cent of students who completed a bachelor degree in the field of Medical Science in 2013 found employment, well below the 71.3 per cent for bachelor degree graduates across all fields of study103. Outcomes for these graduates have been trending downwards since 2005, when 82.1 per cent of students who graduated in this field found full‐time employment. Less than 20 per cent of Medical Science bachelor degree graduates who found employment were working as medical laboratory scientists. The remainder were employed in a variety of occupations, including medical technician (13.3 per cent). Outlook Replacement needs are not expected to be a major driver of demand for this occupation, as labour turnover is moderate to low104 and the workforce has a young age profile105. 99 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 101 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, 12 month moving average 102 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table 103 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 104 ABS, Labour Mobility, 2013 105 ABS Labour Force, 2013 annual average 100 Department of Employment Page 21 The ageing of the population is expected, though, to drive strong demand for pathology services and, accordingly, medical laboratory scientists over the long term. The Department106 projects that between November 2013 and November 2018 employment of medical laboratory scientists will increase by 13.7 per cent (or 2100), above the projected increase across all occupations of 7.2 per cent. Nonetheless, there is currently a more than adequate supply of these workers and continued strong growth in training numbers will be sufficient to meet demand in the next three to five years. 2523‐12 Dentist Shortages of dentists have not been recorded since 2009. Employers surveyed through the Department’s research in 2014 filled their vacancies with greater ease than at any time since the series commenced in 2007. Employers attracted large fields of applicants in 2014, with an average of 17.8 qualified applicants per vacancy, of whom 5.3 were considered by employers to be suitable. Recruitment is slightly more difficult for employers whose positions are in regional locations, but they still filled their vacancies without marked difficulty and had the choice of multiple suitable applicants. Dental Board of Australia data107 show there were around 15,600 registered dentists in June 2014, up by 8.8 per cent since June 2012. ABS estimates of employment are variable, but suggest there has been little growth in employment of dentists over the last five years108. The number of advertised vacancies for dental practitioners recovered somewhat over the year to August 2014, but remains around a quarter less than the record high over the year to February 2011109. The number of domestic Dentistry graduates has increased significantly110. Over the five years to 2013, domestic commencements increased by 24.3 per cent while completions rose by 67.2 per cent. There was a particularly marked rise in completions between 2012 and 2013 (up by 26.6 per cent). Employment outcomes for students studying Dentistry, while still strong, are at their lowest levels since the early 1980s111. The proportion of graduates in full‐time employment fell from 93.9 per cent in 2011 to 83.6 per cent in 2012, and remained at around that level in 2013. The Australian Dental Association112 has recently raised concerns regarding the uncapped intake of Dentistry students into universities and the subsequent growth in the number of graduates unable to secure employment in dentistry. Consistent with this, a number employers surveyed by the Department expressed concern at the large number of graduate dentists they attracted for their vacancies and the difficulty these applicants experience gaining employment. Outlook As with the other health occupations, demand for dentists is expected to increase in coming years. The Department113 projects that between November 2013 and November 2018 employment of dentists will increase by 11.8 per cent (or 1800), above the projected increase across all occupations of 7.2 per cent. That said, there is currently a more than adequate supply of these workers and the strong growth in training numbers will likely be sufficient to meet demand in the next three to five years. 106 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 Dental Board of Australia, Dental Practitioner Registration Data, June 2014 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 109 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, 12 month moving average 110 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table. Data are for courses that lead to provisional registration as a dental practitioner. 111 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 112 Australian Dental Association, www.ada.org.au/App_CmsLib/Media/Lib/1403/M751647_ v1_635316017667250313.pdf (accessed 14 April 2014) 113 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 107 108 Department of Employment Page 22 Resource‐related professions The Department recommends the removal of the following resource‐related occupations 1335‐13 Production Manager (Mining) 2336‐11 Mining Engineer (except Petroleum) 2336‐12 Petroleum Engineer 2349‐12 Metallurgist. There has been marked easing in these labour markets over the past year and there is now strong competition for available vacancies. Demand for these professionals is unlikely to recover significantly over the next three to five years. Opportunities, even when demand is strong, are limited to particular geographic locations. If there is unmet demand for these workers, employer sponsored visa categories are better suited. There were a number of redundancies announced by Mining companies in 2013‐14, with data gathered through the Department’s monitoring of redundancies indicating that many are for professionals and office staff. Research by the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy114 shows that the unemployment rate among its professional members increased to 12.2 per cent in 2014. Furthermore, one in ten mineral professionals was made redundant in 2013‐14. Shortages of skilled workers, which were particularly widespread in the Mining sector between 2007‐08 and 2011‐12, are no longer evident115. Over the past 12 to 18 months there has been a marked easing in labour market conditions and applicants now face strong competition for available vacancies for resource‐related professions. Resource‐related occupations were the hardest to fill in 2012‐13 but are now among the easiest. Outlook It is clear that in the short to medium term this labour market will remain soft, as conditions remain weak in the Mining sector. The investment cycle of the Mining boom has peaked and while there remains a substantial pipeline of work yet to be done, this will start to decline rapidly over the next few years and “will lead to a reversal of the substantial shift of labour and capital into the resources sector…”116 1335‐13 Production Manager (Mining) Demand for this occupation is dependent on Mining activity and, in line with the transition away from the investment phase and fewer mines due to be commissioned in the short to medium term, there was a marked easing in this labour market in 2014117. Employers filled 87 per cent of surveyed vacancies, up from 42 per cent in 2013 and applicants faced significantly greater competition for available vacancies. There was an average of 42.5 applicants per vacancy in 2014 (up from 15.6 in 2013), of whom 3.8 were considered by employers to be suitable (compared with 1.8 in 2013). Employers seeking managers for quarries also noted that they had seen an increase in applications from managers who had worked in other areas of the resources sector, despite the lower remuneration offered for work in quarries. Employers often comment that mining production managers cannot readily switch between different mining techniques and commodities. 114 Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, AusIMM Professional Employment Survey, 2014 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 116 The Treasury, Budget Papers, 2014‐15 117 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 115 Department of Employment Page 23 Outlook Employment projections118 for production managers (includes forestry, manufacturing and mining production managers, separate data are not available) suggest there is likely to be little employment growth over the five years to 2018. Shortages of these workers are unlikely to re‐emerge over the next three to five years, and applicants are expected to continue to face significant competition for jobs. 2336 Mining Engineers The slower activity in the Mining industry over the past year has led to a substantial easing in the labour market for mining engineers119. Between 2013 and 2014, there was a 47 percentage point rise in the proportion of mining engineer vacancies filled (to 87 per cent). There were, on average, 43.3 qualified applicants for mining engineering vacancies in 2014, 6.9 of whom were considered by employers to be suitable. Employment120 of mining engineers fell by 20.7 per cent over the two years to August 2014 and there were only about 40 per cent as many vacancies advertised121 for these occupations in the year to August 2014 compared with the previous year (and the numbers were almost 80 per cent lower than in the peak period to July 2012). Higher education numbers have risen strongly in Mining Engineering and there were almost 700 commencements across all course levels in 2013122. Domestic student commencements increased by 5.6 per cent for bachelor degrees and 51.0 per cent for postgraduate courses, over the five years to 2013. Postgraduate commencements outnumbered bachelor degree commencements in 2013. Completions have been markedly higher, up by 38.1 per cent for bachelor degrees and more than doubling for postgraduates. Graduate employment outcomes remain very strong at the bachelor degree level but have fallen for masters graduates over the past few years123. In 2013, 88.2 per cent of masters degree graduates were employed, 9.0 percentage points fewer than in 2012. Data for 2014 are unavailable at the time of writing and these are likely to reflect the weaker conditions in Mining. Outlook The Department of Employment124 expects employment of mining engineers to fall slightly over the five years to November 2018 (down by 0.3 per cent). Higher university completions can be expected over the next couple of years. 118 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 120 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 121 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, 12 month moving average 122 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table 123 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 124 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 119 Department of Employment Page 24 2349‐12 Metallurgist This is a small, specialist profession, with employment of around 1200 nationally, and is concentrated in Western Australia (44 per cent of all employment)125. Employment is driven by activity in the Mining sector. There are large numbers of qualified applicants vying for metallurgist vacancies (around 38 per vacancy in 2014) and employers fill their positions without difficulty126. In fact, shortages of metallurgists have not been identified at any time over the past five years, even when Mining activity was strong. Outlook Detailed labour market data are not available for this occupation from the ABS Labour Force Survey (they are only provided for the diverse Other Natural and Physical Science Professionals group of which it is part), but the weak conditions in the Mining sector and the strong competition for vacancies identified through the Department’s research suggest that opportunities are likely to remain limited. 125 ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 (more recent data are not available at the occupation level) Department of Employment, Skill shortage research 126 Department of Employment Page 25 Attachment C ― Background information for flagged labour markets and those recommended for flagging The following two occupations were flagged by the former Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency in 2013 for further consideration. Although not making any recommendations in relation to these labour markets, the Department offers results of its skill shortage research as background for the Department of Industry’s considerations. 2322‐12 Surveyor Shortages of surveyors have apparent been almost continuously since 2006127. In 2014, employers filled 54 per cent of their vacancies, attracting an average of 1.7 suitable applicants per vacancy. Many of those employers who did fill their vacancies only did so after months of repeated advertising and the use of recruitment agencies. Employers reported that a number of applicants rejected job offers as they could not agree on terms and conditions of employment or had secured other positions. Despite attracting an average of 14.5 applicants per vacancy, of whom 7.1 were qualified, employers experienced difficulty attracting applicants who fulfilled the requirements of the role. Around one in four employers did not attract any applicants they considered to be suitable. Some employers commented that there were fewer licensed candidates to consider in their most recent recruitment exercises than in previous years. A number of employers indicated that they have recently sponsored surveyors from overseas due to the lack of experienced local applicants. In other cases employers recruited applicants from New Zealand. 2527‐12 Speech Pathologist Speech pathologists were in shortage for nine of the ten years to 2012. Since then, the labour market for these professionals has eased, with the average number of applicants per vacancy doubling between 2012 and 2014 and the vast majority of vacancies filled. In 2014 there were 7.1 qualified applicants per vacancy, of whom 4.4 were considered by employers to be suitable the small number of entry level speech pathologist vacancies surveyed attracted large numbers of qualified applicants employers in metropolitan and regional locations attracted similar numbers of suitable applicants. Speech Pathology Australia suggests demand for speech pathologists is likely to increase as the population ages and there is greater recognition and early identification of communication and swallowing impairment across child and adult populations128. The Department of Employment projects employment of speech pathologists and audiologists (data are not available separately but speech pathologist represents 78 per cent of the group129) to increase by 11.4 per cent (or 1200) to November 2018 (compared with 7.2 per cent for all occupations)130. 127 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research Speech Pathology Australia, Education and Careers, www.speechpathologyaustralia.org.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=174&Itemid=863 (accessed 12 June 2014) 129 ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 130 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 128 Department of Employment Page 26 321 and 324 Automotive Trades The Department recommends the retention of automotive trades worker occupations currently on the SOL. Shortages of automotive trades workers have been persistent for more than a decade. Although these trades have not been assessed since late 2013, national shortages continued to be identified at that time for the majority of automotive trades, despite vacancy levels being at a low level by historical standards. Shortages were identified for automotive electricians, motor mechanics, small engine mechanics and panelbeaters. While employers’ recruitment difficulties vary by occupation and location, automotive trade vacancies are some of the hardest to fill of the skilled occupations assessed by the Department131. For a number of years there have been small numbers of suitable applicants and relatively few of these vacancies have been filled. About 56 per cent of vacancies for automotive trade workers were filled in 2013 and there were few suitable applicants, 1.3 on average, per vacancy. While employment of automotive trades workers132 has generally been trending downwards over the last 20 years, employment levels during 2014 have been relatively high when compared with the previous few years. Employment of automotive trade workers increased by 7.0 per cent over the year to August 2014 and 19.0 per cent over the five years to August 2014. Furthermore, most of the automotive trade occupations have recorded strong growth over the last year (with automotive electricians, motor mechanics and vehicle body builders and trimmers each recording growth well above the all occupations average). The majority (54.7 per cent) of automotive trades workers are employed in the automotive repair and maintenance industry133. Only a small proportion (4.1 per cent) of automotive trades workers are employed in the Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Part Manufacturing sector. Outlook Over the five years to November 2018, the Department projects134 employment will fall by 0.9 per cent. That said, shortages are likely to persist in the automotive trades, as the factors which contribute to recruitment and retention difficulties are likely to continue. Furthermore, supply through local training has been constrained by falling commencements and relatively flat apprenticeship and traineeship completions in recent years. A number of employers surveyed as part of the Department’s research have voiced concerns about future supply given the low levels of training in the automotive trades. NCVER 135data show there was a marked fall in the number of apprentices and trainees commencing at the certificate III and higher qualification level within the automotive trades in 2013 (down by 13.3 per cent compared with 2012) a rise of 4.0 per cent in completions in the year to 2013. 131 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 133 ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 134 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 135 NCVER, Apprentices and Trainees, March 2014, estimates 132 Department of Employment Page 27 33 Construction Trades The Department recommends construction trades currently on the SOL be retained. This labour market is tightening and shortages are re‐emerging. Low construction trades apprenticeship commencements are likely to limit new supply in the next few years, while stronger activity levels will lead to higher demand for the construction trades. The labour market for construction trades has shown a marked tightening with shortages re‐emerging for a number of trades136 in 2014. Six of the 11 trades assessed in late 2014 are in national shortage (bricklayer, stonemason, solid plasterer, roof tiler, wall and floor tiler and cabinetmaker), compared with three the previous year (stonemason, solid plasterer and roof tiler). Furthermore, regional shortages are evident for glaziers and employers experience difficulty recruiting roof plumbers. Research undertaken by Masters Builders Australia (MBA) and the Housing Industry Association (HIA) also indicate that there has been a tightening in the availability of construction trades workers. HIA’s results137 show that labour supply tightened across all of their 13 trade categories in the September quarter 2014, with moderate shortages for ten. MBA’s results138 indicate that the degree of difficulty in finding employees/subcontractors in the September quarter 2014 increased for most construction worker categories. Both employment and vacancy levels also suggest there has been stronger demand for construction trades workers. Employment of construction trades workers139 increased by 8.5 per cent over the two years to August 2014 and the number of advertised vacancies140 rose by 51.9 per cent over this time period (albeit from historical lows). The tightening in this labour market reflects increasing activity in building construction. In the past, engineering construction masked, to some extent, the softness in residential and non‐residential building. More recently, engineering construction activity has started to weaken, while there are signs of recovery for building construction. ABS data141 show the value of total building work done increased by 6.2 per cent over the year to June 2014, with a strong rise in residential building (up by 9.8 per cent) and a more moderate increase in non‐residential building (up by 1.1 per cent). The Performance of Construction Index142 shows five consecutive months of expansion as at October 2014. In terms of training for the construction trades, apprenticeships remain the key pathway. NCVER data143 show apprenticeship and traineeship commencements at the certificate III and higher qualification level were relatively low between 2011 and 2013. While there was a modest increase in 2013 (up by 5.3 per cent), the number of commencements in 2013 was 20.2 per cent less than in 2008. The fall in commencements has impacted upon completions, with fewer apprentices and trainees completing in 2013 than in the previous three years (down by 4.3 per cent compared with 2012). 136 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research HIA, HIA Trades Report, September 2014 138 MBA, National Survey of Building and Construction, September 2014 139 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 140 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, trend 141 ABS, Building Activity, June 2014, chain volume measures, trend 142 Australian Industry Group, Performance of Construction Index, October 2014 143 NCVER, Apprentices and Trainees, March 2014, estimates 137 Department of Employment Page 28 Outlook A number of forward indicators suggest that building activity will continue to recover, which will drive employment growth in the construction trades. The Department’s projections144 indicate that employment in construction trades is expected to grow by 8.9 per cent over the five years to November 2018, stronger than the average for all occupations (7.2 per cent). The pipeline of residential work is growing, with ABS data145 showing an increase of 6.8 per cent in the number of total dwelling approvals over the year to August 2014, with particularly robust growth for private sector houses (up by 12.4 per cent). ABS data146 show the number of new finance commitments for the construction of dwellings rose strongly over the year to August 2014, up by 13.5 per cent, as has the value of those financial commitments (up by 12.8 per cent). The Housing Industry Association (HIA)147 estimates that an additional 186,000 new dwellings per annum are needed over the coming decades to meet future population levels. The Treasury148 forecasts private dwelling investment to increase by 7.5 per cent in 2014‐15 and 5.5 per cent in 2015‐16. 144 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 ABS, Building Approvals, August 2014, trend 146 ABS, Housing Finance, August 2014, trend 147 HIA, Housing Australia’s Future: Demographic analysis of Australia’s housing requirements, 2014 148 The Treasury, Budget Papers, 2014‐15 145 Department of Employment Page 29 233 Engineering Professions The Department recommends that decisions in relation to the retention of engineering professions currently on the SOL be based, in large part, on migrant employment outcomes but also consideration of the planned infrastructure projects. If they are retained, they continue to be monitored with a particular view to local conditions and graduate outcomes. Engineers make up a large and diverse labour market and provide significant skills for a number of industries in the Australian economy. Over much of the early 2000s, the labour market for engineering professionals was robust, characterised by strong employment growth and widespread shortages. In the past two years, though, the labour market for engineers has eased greatly and shortages are no longer evident. Although the industry base for engineers is diverse, with five industries each employing more than 10,000 engineers149, weaker conditions in Manufacturing, Mining and Engineering Construction are having a significant impact on demand for these professionals. All assessed engineering occupations were in shortage from 2010 to 2012 but there are now no national shortages150. Employment of engineers has fallen by 6.4 per cent over the past two years 151 and advertised vacancies152 decreased by 68.2 per cent to the lowest level since the series began in 2006. There has been a large rise in the proportion of vacancies filled and the number of applicants and suitable applicants per vacancy over the past two years, and competition is now very strong for advertised positions. In 2014, there were 38.1 applicants, on average, per engineer vacancy, of whom 32.0 were qualified engineers. At the same time as demand is softening, there are higher numbers of domestic university students153 in the broad field of Engineering and Related Technologies. Over the five years to 2013 bachelor degree commencements increased by 31.4 per cent (or 3500) bachelor degree completions increased by 16.1 per cent (or almost 1000), but the higher commencement numbers over the past few years suggest there will be further growth in completions. Graduate employment outcomes have eased notably. In 2008, 93.7 per cent of bachelor degree graduates in Engineering and Related Technologies field of education gained employment within four months of completing their studies, but in 2013 the figure had fallen to 82.6 per cent154 (which is still well above the all bachelor degree average of 71.3 per cent). The labour market for engineers is, though, an international one, with migration contributing significantly to the supply of engineering professionals (Census data155 show that around 45 per cent of workers were born outside Australia). Engineers Australia also report that when demand is subdued, engineers often leave the profession or seek work overseas156. 149 ABS, Labour Force, 2013 annual average Department of Employment, Skill shortage research, consistently assessed engineering professional occupations 151 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 152 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, trend 153 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table 154 GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 155 ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 156 Engineers Australia, Engineering vacancy data show softening labour market, 20 June 2013 150 Department of Employment Page 30 Outlook In the short to medium term this labour market will remain soft, as conditions weaken in the Mining, Manufacturing and Engineering Construction sectors. It is important to note the very long lead time required to train experienced workers. In addition, the importance of engineers in the development of infrastructure needs to be weighed against outcomes for local engineers and recent graduates. Of concern, though, is anecdotal evidence from the Department’s research that some overseas trained engineers experience difficulty gaining employment in Australia. Plans for significant infrastructure projects will likely create strong demand in some engineering specialisations. The Australian Government has a $50 billion Infrastructure Investment Programme, which includes road, rail, intermodal and port projects, and it expects that it will also leverage more than $125 billion in new infrastructure investment157. Recently, engineering construction activity has started to weaken. The value of engineering construction work done158 decreased by 5.0 per cent over the year to the June 2014. o The Treasury159 forecasts that engineering construction investment will fall by 13.0 per cent in 2014‐15 and a further 20.5 per cent in 2015‐16. Over the five years to November 2018, employment growth for engineers is expected to be lower than the average across all occupations (5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent), but there is notable variation between specialisations160. o Employment is projected to increase relatively strongly for electronics engineers (up by 11.8 per cent) and civil engineering professionals (8.2 per cent), but fall for chemical and materials engineers (down by 1.0 per cent) and mining engineers (0.3 per cent). The investment cycle of the Mining boom has peaked and while there remains a substantial pipeline of work yet to be done, this will start to decline rapidly over the next few years and “will lead to a reversal of the substantial shift of labour and capital into the resources sector…”161 157 Partnerships 2014: IPA Infrastructure and Investment Conference, www.minister.infrastructure.gov.au/wt/speeches/2014/wts021_2014.aspx ABS, Engineering Construction Activity, June 2014, Chain volume measure, trend 159 The Treasury, Budget Papers, 2014‐15 160 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 161 The Treasury, Budget Papers, 2014‐15 158 Department of Employment Page 31 322 and 323 Engineering Trades The Department is not making specific recommendations in relation to these trades, but notes that they remain vital to the Australian economy and that consideration is required to ensure an adequate supply of appropriately qualified and experienced engineering trades workers to support industry. The priority must be for domestic training, but training numbers have been low over recent years. Sheetmetal trades worker is a flagged occupation. The Department notes that it continued to be in shortage when last assessed in late 2013, with shortages evident for nine of the previous ten years. Engineering trades make up a large and diverse labour market and provide significant skills for a number of industries in the Australian economy, including Manufacturing, Mining and Construction. Any shortages of engineering trades workers would likely constrain activity in these sectors. Engineering trades are a large employing162 cluster of 231,700 and cover a diverse group of occupations working in a number of sectors. The Manufacturing industry is the largest employer of engineering trades workers (43.5 per cent), however, there is also demand from the Mining and Construction industries for engineering trade skills (14.1 per cent and 10.2 per cent, respectively)163. Until recently, long standing shortages have been a hallmark of these occupations, however a combination of declining activity in Manufacturing and a slowing in Mining activity have adversely impacted on demand. The labour market for engineering trades is currently subdued, with advertised vacancies164 at historically low levels and employment165 falling by 3.7 per cent over the two years to August 2014. In line with this, the Department’s skill shortage research into engineering trades indicates that shortages have abated, with sheetmetal trades workers and locksmith the only two in shortage in 2013‐14. There is strong competition for vacancies, with the number of applicants vying for positions, from an average of 6.6 per vacancy in 2011‐12 to 17.2 in 2013‐14, with a particularly large increase in the year to 2013‐14. Apprenticeship and traineeship numbers166 at the certificate III and higher qualification level for engineering trades fell over the two years to 2013, with commencements decreasing by 14.2 per cent (to be markedly lower than their peak in 2008), and completions down by 9.2 per cent. Graduate outcomes for vocational education and training students167 remain strong across fabrication and mechanical engineering trades workers. For fabrication engineering trades, 91.1 per cent of graduates were employed after they completed their training, with around 79.1 per cent of these working in the same occupation as the training course, and a further 9.0 per cent stating the training was relevant to their current job. For mechanical engineering trades, 95.7 per cent were employed after training, with 60.9 per cent in an occupation that was the same as the training course, and a further 29.8 per cent stating that training was relevant to their job. Outlook Demand from key employing sectors is likely to be subdued, particularly from Manufacturing which is expected to continue to decline in the period ahead. Mining is also in a period of transition, with the industry moving away from its labour intensive stage. 162 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend ABS, Labour Force, 2013 annual average 164 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, 12 month moving average 165 ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 166 NCVER, Apprentices and Trainees, March 2014, estimate 167 NCVER, Student Outcomes, 2013. Includes graduates in full‐time and part‐time employment six months after completion of training. Data for combined engineering trades are not available 163 Department of Employment Page 32 On the other hand, the Construction industry is expected to grow over the five years to November 2018. The Construction sectors that employ significant numbers of engineering trades workers (for example, Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction) will be affected by the slowdown in Mining activity, although this may be offset by planned infrastructure projects. Employment across all the engineering trades occupations is projected to fall over the five years to November 2018, with particularly large falls expected for sheetmetal trades workers (down by 5.2 per cent), toolmakers and engineering patternmakers (down by 5.1 per cent) and metal casting, forging and finishing trades (down by 4.4 per cent)168. 168 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 Department of Employment Page 33 26 ICT Professions The Department’s research shows that there is very strong competition from applicants who hold a bachelor degree or higher qualification in an ICT related field for available jobs, and that employers fill their ICT vacancies with ease. The Department also notes that some commentators suggest that shortages are likely (or already evident); there is relatively high use of 457 visas in these professions; and an imbalance exists between domestic and international students. It is important to weigh up the employment outcomes of graduates against any risk of shortages in the longer term if a fall in overseas student numbers reduces new supply. The Department does not make any recommendation about these ICT professions but suggests that they be flagged (or continue to be flagged) for further monitoring. ICT skills are important to the Australian economy and labour market, and every sector employs these workers. The Department’s research169 points to a marked oversupply of ICT professionals. Competition for vacancies is strong and, in 2014, there was an average of 49.9 applicants per surveyed vacancy (up from 31.9 in 2013) and 5.0 suitable applicants per vacancy (up from 3.6 in 2013). There were large numbers of applicants who held relevant qualifications but were considered by employers to be unsuitable (36.0, on average, per vacancy, up from 16.2 in 2013). The very few surveyed vacancies which remained unfilled in 2014 required very specific experience and skills. In addition, employment of ICT professionals has recently begun to decline (down by 2.1 per cent over the two years to August 2014, compared with growth of 2.5 per cent for all occupations)170. Over the same period, the number of internet vacancies171 for ICT professionals has decreased by 8.0 per cent. Recently, vacancy levels have recovered somewhat, but they remain well below the level recorded five years ago. The Clarius Skills Indicator172 shows there was a surplus of 1800 ICT professionals and 500 ICT managers in the March 2014 quarter and that the surplus of these ICT professionals has grown since March 2013. The large number of applicants for vacancies, combined with declining employment and advertised vacancies suggest that it is likely that migrants will experience difficulty gaining employment as an ICT professional. Entry of ICT professionals through the visa categories to which the SOL relates may increase the number of qualified but unsuitable applicant numbers but fail to address specialist skill needs, which are better met through more targeted migration. This is supported by the fact that, despite large numbers of qualified applicants for surveyed vacancies, there were almost 10,000 ICT professionals in Australia on 457 visas in June 2014, and the number of visa grants increased by 24 per cent over the five years to 2013‐14173. There are generally higher numbers of international students undertaking higher education courses in IT than domestic students. International students comprised around 53 per cent of commencements in 2013. This is particularly notable at the postgraduate level, with almost three quarters of postgraduate commencements in 2013 being international students174. Commencements in IT have increased strongly and graduate outcomes have fallen markedly over the past five years. 169 Department of Employment, Skill shortage research ABS, Labour Force, August 2014, Department of Employment trend 171 Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, August 2014, trend 172 Clarius Group, Clarius Skills Indicator, March 2014 (released May 2014) 173 Department of Immigration and Border Protection, Subclass 457 quarterly pivot tables, 30 June 2014, www.immi.gov.au 174 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table 170 Department of Employment Page 34 The number of domestic students175 commencing a bachelor degree in IT increased by 37.6 per cent over the five years to 2013, although this remains below the peaks recorded in the early 2000s. Bachelor degree completions, though, fell by 9.2 per cent over the period. For international students, bachelor commencements decreased by 23.5 per cent, although postgraduate commencements increased by 5.8 per cent. Completions have fallen for both bachelor and postgraduate degrees, down by 1.8 per cent and 26.2 per cent, respectively. Graduate Careers Australia data176 show that employment outcomes for IT bachelor degree graduates are below average, with 70.3 per cent securing full‐time work, compared with 71.3 per cent across all fields of education. Employment outcomes for IT graduates have fallen by 14.4 percentage points since 2008. Although there has been some recent growth in the number of domestic students undertaking further studies in IT, Innovation and Business Skills Australia suggest “Intakes into VET and higher education ICT qualifications are insufficient to meet the projected demands of the ICT industry and, when combined with the low completion rates, indicate effort is needed in this area. This may be somewhat explained by evidence suggesting that for many ICT occupations there is no direct link to a qualification and industry is often more interested in vendor qualifications”177. Outlook The ICT professions have a relatively young age profile178 and low turnover179, suggesting that replacement demand is unlikely to be a major source of employment opportunities. That said, employment is projected to increase by 12.8 per cent over the five years to November 2018, compared with 7.2 per cent for all occupations180. Despite the strong projected employment growth, the Department’s research shows that there is an oversupply of ICT professionals, with large numbers of applicants vying for positions and low vacancy numbers. In addition, there is evidence that employers are using alternative, more targeted options to recruit skills needed from outside Australia. 175 Department of Education, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2013, customised table GCA, Graduate Destinations, 2013, customised tables. Outcomes refer to those employed full‐time four months after completing their bachelor degree as a proportion of those available for full‐time work 177 Innovation and Business Skills Australia, Information & Communications Technology Environment Scan, 2014 178 ABS, Labour Force, 2013 annual average 179 ABS, Labour Mobility, 2013 180 Department of Employment, Employment Projections to November 2018 176 Department of Employment Page 35
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