Syndicated articles from In partnership with © The Financial Times Limited 2015. All Rights Reserved. Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in anyway. Edition 2241 FT | 02 Feb 2015 CHINA Overborrowed and overbuilt By Jamil Anderlini The last time China was the world’s largest economy Beijing was a city of about 700,000 people, and its Wangjing district was nothing but a jumble of barren man-made hills built to protect the capital from barbarian invaders to the north. That was 1890. Today, Beijing’s population is more than 21m and Wangjing is an expanse of half-empty or half-built offices and residential towers inside the city’s fifth ring road. China has regained its title as the world’s biggest economy, overtaking the US in purchasing power terms for the first time in 125 years, but this growing suburb provides a stark example of the mounting problems the country faces. The restoration of its pre-eminent position comes just as China steps into the socalled “middle-income trap” and as serious stresses built up over the past few years threaten to come to a head. With its mix of old apartment blocks and gleaming but empty futuristic office towers Wangjing is typical of the credit-fuelled property construction of the past decade, which boosted growth, but at a high price. China’s official growth rate of 7.4 per cent last year was the slowest pace since 1990, when the country still faced sanctions in the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth forecast for China this year from 7.1 per cent to 6.8 per cent and predicts the country’s gross domestic product will grow slower than India next year for the first time in decades. Places like Wangjing are representative of “the huge amount of property stock, the potential for local debt crises and the unfavorable demographic shifts that will cause the real estate downturn to last for at least another three years,” according to Ai Jingwei, a property market commentator. Although growth of 7.4 per cent (or even 6.8 per cent) remains the envy of slow-growing developed economies in the west it is a far cry from the double-digit average annual expansion China maintained for three decades starting in the late 1970s. As recently as the start of 2010, China’s economy was expanding by about 12 per cent in a surge of credit and construc- tion unleashed by Beijing to counter the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis. One of the biggest problems China faces now is that the slowdown is happening even as credit and construction, the main drivers of growth, are continuing almost unabated. While Beijing suburbs such as Wangjing are representative of this over-borrowing and overbuilding, the problem is even more acute in smaller cities that will never see the demand for real estate that should eventually catch up with supply in the capital. When ancillary industries are taken into account, real estate construction makes up about a quarter of China’s $10tn economy, a higher proportion than the US, Ireland or Spain at the height of their property bubbles last decade . Nearly a decade of frantic building has created massive overcapacity and left vast belts of empty apartment blocks ringing most Chinese cities. Last year, the gravity-defying rises of the previous decade, which have seen prices quadruple in major cities, finally came to a halt. Average nationwide housing prices were down 4.3 per cent in December from 12 months earlier. But total investment in the sector still increased 10.5 per cent for the year and unsold floor space was up by more than 26 per cent by the end of December, according to official figures. The data suggests the correction in China’s real estate sector has not even really begun. When the sector starts to con- tract, which could be as early as this year, the headline growth rate could fall much faster and the country could face a wave of bankruptcies - as well as a possible debt crisis, economists warn. The “slowdown in China could turn into a disorderly unwinding of financial vulnerabilities with considerable implications for the global economy,” the World Bank warned this month. The impact is already being felt in global commodity prices, including oil, and in the stuttering performance of economies in Brazil, Germany, Australia and much of Asia, which are increasingly reliant on Chinese demand. Prices of commodities, such as iron ore and copper - key ingredients in any construction boom, are trading close to levels last seen in the midst of the global financial crisis, and that is before the Chinese construction correction has even properly happened. The financial vulnerabilities are particularly concentrated at the local government level, where provincial officials have ignored budget constraints and a ban on borrowing to indulge in a credit and construction binge. By the middle of 2013, the last time the government published any data, outstanding local government debt stood at Rmb18tn, up 80 per cent in just two years. That increase happened even after Beijing forbid local officials from raising excessive amounts of money. But even as the economy slowed last year and officials were tasked with propping up growth with even more in- frastructure investment, local government borrowing appears to have surged again. Partial statistics on local government fundraising shows they sold Rmb1.66tn worth of bonds in 2014, compared with Rmb900bn in each of the two previous years. As with the continued rise in property investment, the government’s stated goal of deleveraging has not yet begun, which means that when it does the economy could slow much more sharply. The links between the two biggest risks to China’s economy - the property sector and local government debt - make the situation more alarming. Local governments rely on sales of land for 35 per cent of their revenues, according to research from Deutsche Bank, and virtually all of their outstanding debt is collateralized by government-owned land that is often seriously overvalued. In a recent study that raises concerns about the sustainability of current growth rates, Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist for Deutsche Bank, found that local governments have become the dominant buyers of land in the past few years. To avoid a ban on running deficits local governments have set up thousands of wholly-owned “financing vehicles” that have borrowed money on their behalf from state banks, bond markets and lightly regulated underground institutions. This process is technically illegal but has been tolerated because it bolstered growth in the wake of the global financial crisis. As real estate sales have slumped and demand for land from commercial developers has evaporated, local officials have started using these financing vehicles to purchase land from themselves using credit from both state-owned and shadow banks. Officials and analysts worry that this is an unsustainable attempt to boost short-term growth and flagging fiscal revenues. “In 2015, China will probably face the worst fiscal challenge since 1981 [before growth accelerated],” Mr Zhang wrote in his report. “We believe the fiscal slide [the fall in revenues] is the top risk for the Chinese economy and it is not well recognized in the market.” As well as the slowest growth in a quarter of a century, 2014 marked the first time the ruling Communist party had missed its annual growth target since the height of the Asian financial crisis in 1998. Officials and some analysts argue that last year’s goal of “around 7.5 per cent” growth was not really missed because the government, anticipating a slower pace, had made it more of a soft target by introducing the word “around” for the first time. The government is set to announce a growth target of “around 7 per cent” this year. But even Lou Jiwei, China’s finance minister, tells visiting dignitaries that Beijing will be happy with 6 per cent growth in coming years. In private, he warns that just to maintain that growth will require very high levels of government-led infrastructure investment. Given the mounting problems at home it is little wonder China’s leaders see the title of world’s largest economy as a burden that brings unwanted attention. In fact, Beijing has so far refused to even acknowledge the new estimates, which attempt to adjust for the relative value of non-tradable goods and services in different economies. “Recently there have been some scholars and media who estimated China’s GDP has already surpassed the US in purchasing power terms, but China and the National Bureau of Statistics do not recognize these opinions,” China’s genial statistician-in-chief said last week as he revealed the country’s latest growth figures. “The problem comes from not being able to include identi- cal goods in the complex basket of goods you compare [across different economies] - in China’s consumer basket of goods the main food items are steamed buns and rice, while European friends perhaps have a lot of bread in their basket. You can’t really compare them.” Arguments over the relative value of carbohydrates aside, officials quite reasonably point out that China ranks 89th in the world in terms of per capita GDP, a better measure of the wealth of a population, putting it on a par with the Maldives or Peru. They also argue the latest estimates seriously overvalue the quality of items available in the Chinese market. “China is only just entering the ranks of middle-income economies and is facing all of these headwinds so it really doesn’t want to accept the global responsibilities . . . of being the world’s number one economy,” says one person who was involved in the heated discussions over the new estimate. Using the government’s current exchange rates China’s slowing economy topped $10tn for the first time last year, while the US economy is accelerating and is bigger than $17.5tn. According to research by the British economist Angus Maddison, China had the world’s biggest economy for nearly two millennia and in 1820 it accounted for 33 per cent of the world’s GDP, or about the same proportion the US accounted for in 2000. But by 1890, after decades of internal rebellion and foreign incursions, China had lost its number one spot to the US in purchasing power terms. Back then China’s exports only accounted for 0.6 per cent of GDP, there were virtually no imports of machinery or other modern inputs and opium still accounted for more than a quarter of Chinese imports. Today China is the world’s biggest trader of goods and the biggest consumer of everything from iron ore to powdered milk. So unlike the 1890s, when its economy was still largely self-sufficient and had little impact globally, the rest of the world now needs to pay close attention to half-built office towers in the suburbs of Beijing. Additional reporting by Gu Yu Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2015 02.02.2015 Syndicated articles from F2 © The Financial Times Limited 2015. All Rights Reserved. Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in anyway. By Maija Palmer When AirAsia flight QZ8501 disappeared on a trip from Surabaya to Singapore last month, the company’s chief executive, Tony Fernandes, took to Twitter to express his sorrow, post updates and rally his demoralized staff. “I as your group CEO will be there through these hard times. We will go through this terrible ordeal together,” Mr Fernandes tweeted. “Keeping positive and staying strong. My heart bleeds for all the relatives of my crew and our passangers (sic). Nothing is more impo rtant to us.” Mr Fernandes’s tweets, complete with typos, came across as authentic and heartfelt, and won him praise in an otherwise bleak situation. “It showed how powerful this medium can be when a CEO is dealing with a crisis,” says Leslie GainesRoss, chief reputation strategist at PR firm Weber Shandwick. “It is a way of having a deeper, closer relationship with employees and customers.” Relatively few chief executives - especially at large companies - have joined Twitter. Only 14 per cent of the chief executives of the world’s largest listed companies are using the social media platform as a way to communicate. Socialbro, a company that helps companies market themselves on Twitter, looked at the 223 companies listed on the FTSE 100, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30, and found that while more than 94 per cent had a corporate Twitter account, only 31 had chief executives who tweeted. Of these, only 20 were actively using the social media site. “The low numbers really surprised me,” said Linda Bolg, head of marketing at Socialbro. “I would personally always advise being on Twitter as it can raise the company profile and give a CEO the opportunity to set the record straight if needed.” Some business leaders may fear that Twitter turns out to be a passing fad or superseded by some other social media platform, although with 284m people now using it each month, such concerns are becoming harder to justify. Ms Gaines-Ross says many chief executives are worried they will make a mistake, accidentally leak something about the company, or say something that provokes a backlash. It is not an unreasonable BLOOMBERG Chief executives spread their wings as fledgling tweeters Tony Fernandes, chief executive officer of AirAsia Bhd., center, leaves the Bhayangkara hospital in Surabaya, Indonesia fear. A number of people have lost their jobs because of ill-judged words on Twitter. Last November a Labour MP in the UK was sacked for a tweet that some thought sneered at working class people. Bluntly-worded tweets by leaders such as Rupert Murdoch and Donald Trump regularly provoke angry outcry. But the power of being able to communicate instantly with potentially thousands of people has persuaded some to overcome their concerns. I realised that they wanted to hear what I had to say.” Indeed, the appetite for Twitter messages from leaders is immense. Warren Buffett has only ever sent five tweets on Twitter - the last of them nearly a year ago - but still has more than 936,000 followers. Now Ms Gold uses Twitter not only to talk to customers about the business but runs a competition every Wednesday to highlight up-and-coming female entrepreneurs. “I am passionate about empowering women in the boardroom Fernandes’s tweets, complete with typos, came across as authentic and heartfelt, and won him praise in an otherwise bleak situation “If I am honest, I was terrified at first. I set up the account but I didn’t do anything with it at first. I just sat there,” says Jacqueline Gold, chief executive of Ann Summers, the lingerie chain, who is now known for her active presence. “Then I saw that, even though I wasn’t saying anything people were still starting to follow me, and and Twitter allows me to mentor women, albeit with only 140 characters, that I would normally not have been able to reach,” she says. A 2012 survey by Brandfog, a company that helps CEOs manage online reputations, found that people were much more likely to trust a brand if the CEO actively engaged on social media. A Twitter presence can also be a useful recruitment tool, particularly when hiring younger members of staff. “When young millennials are looking for jobs they will look at the company and the CEO on social media to see what they are like,” says Ms GainesRoss. Companies and executives with a social media presence will seem more forward thinking. Nafisa Nathani, a communications consultant and self-described “millennial”, puts it succinctly in an interview conducted over Twitter: “No #millennial wants to work for a faceless corporation. CEOs are face to company. Social media helps to connect.” Will Critchlow, chief executive of Distilled, an online marketing agency, actively uses Twitter. “I’ve made client relationships, hired people I got to know here, and more,” he says, adding that such connections can turn into sales. The prospect of facing complaints directly from customers on Twitter may seem daunting. But they will be airing complaints on Twitter in any case and it is better to be there to hear and acknowledge them, says Ms Gold. “If someone is really aggressive or a prolific complainer I would just ignore it, like you would a heavy breather phone call. But if it is a genuine complaint I will face it head on. It is really important to show customers that the CEO cares,” she says. For a guide on CEO tweeting it is worth looking at the accounts of Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, two of the most popular CEOs on Twitter. Mr Musk has the most followers - more than 1.51m - but Mr Cook gets more engagement, with more followers retweeting or marking his messages as favourites. “Tim Cook tends to share inspirational and behind the scenes content from Apple, while Elon Musk is slightly different - more hip, young and trendy, with a very human tone of voice,” says Ms Bolg. Mr Musk’s recent tweet following a failed rocket flight displayed his wry style: “Next rocket landing on drone ship in 2 to 3 weeks w way more hydraulic fluid. At least it shd explode for a diff reason.” Many tweeting CEOs sprinkle in liberal references to their favourite sports teams - Mr Cook tweets about the Auburn college football team that he passionately supports, Mr Fernandes’s feed is littered with pictures of Queens Park Rangers, the football club he owns, and Ms Gold publishes opinionated tweets about Celebrity Big Brother. For those who are not ready to share this much, tweeting about company events and interesting articles is a safe place to start, says Ms Gaines-Ross. If executives are concerned about compliance issues she suggests getting a the company lawyer to check over the tweets in the first few weeks “until you get the hang of it”. Tweeting too much about your own company and products is a no-no. “If you are only talking about your own products or retweeting PR headlines, your Twitter followers will tune out,” says Ms Bolg. It is also advisable, if possible, to write your own tweets. “I think you can tell if tweets are ghostwritten,” says Ms Gold. “It has to be in your own voice or customers will disengage.” It is not an issue that CEOs can ignore, says Ms GainesRoss. Gradually, she says, it is becoming a common practice. “It is from a low base, but it is not going away, it is growing,” she says. “By 2020 it is going to be ubiquitous.” Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2015 mon 02.02.2015 特刊 FEATURE F3 By Kana Nishizawa T HE divide in Hong Kong’s stock market between the city’s own companies and those that make most of their money in China will only get bigger. That’s the verdict of investors and brokerages from JPMorgan Asset Management to UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd. who watched the MSCI Hong Kong Index rise 2 percent last year as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped 11 percent. Monetary policy that favored Hong Kong since 2010 - stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve and restraint from China’s central bank - is reversing course, dimming the outlook for everything from casinos to developers and retailers. “There will be much more downside for pure Hong Kong plays because people are buying China on a potential rate cut and a more stable economic outlook,” said Steven Leung, director of institutional sales at UOB. “We don’t see positive factors for Hong Kong. Toward the middle of this year there will be the risk of a U.S. interest-rate hike, so people will continue to underweight pure Hong Kong plays.” The city’s USD4.3 trillion stock market houses local companies, which make sales and borrow money in a currency that’s pegged to the U.S. dollar, and hundreds of Chinese equities influenced by policy across the border. Last year, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index outperformed the MSCI Hong Kong Index by the most since 2007. The city’s equities remain more expensive, trading at 15.6 times estimated earnings, compared with 8 times on the H-share gauge, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “If I look at the valuations, if I look at growth momentum, Chinese names do offer more interesting prospects,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset, which oversees about $1.7 trillion. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and China International Capital Corp. are among those expecting more cuts to mainland interest rates and reserve requirements after the economy expanded 7.4 percent last year, the slowest pace since 1990. Gains in the H-share index accelerated after the People’s Bank of China delivered a sur- AP PHOTO China returns at 5 times Hong Kong easy choice for investors prise rate reduction on Nov. 21. The MSCI Hong Kong Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both retreated 0.1 percent on Friday. On the opposite end of the policy spectrum, some 45 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg said the Fed will raise the benchmark lending rate in June. Higher borrowing costs would weigh on Hong Kong property stocks, which account for more than a quarter of the city’s MSCI gauge, and are already facing government efforts to cool the real-estate market by increasing the amount of available housing. “For the big constituents in the Hong Kong market like property, policy now is that we want to have more supply because that’s what’s good for If I look at the valuations, if I look at growth momentum, Chinese names do offer more interesting prospects TAI HUI the general population,” said Joshua Crabb, head of Asian equities at Old Mutual Global Investors (UK) Ltd., whose parent oversees about $123.2 billion. The price target set by analysts on Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. was nearly in line with the shares’ closing price on Thursday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. For Link REIT Ltd., analysts expect a 4 percent drop. The earnings outlook for gambling and retail shares is also weak as China’s slower growth and crackdown on graft continue to discourage extravagant spending. Casinos led declines on the MSCI Hong Kong Index last year amid the first-ever annual drop in Macau gaming revenue, with SJM Holdings Ltd. plunging 52 percent and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. sliding 37 percent. Investment banks don’t see a recovery any time soon, and have cut forecasts for Macau casino receipts this year. Nomura Holdings Inc. expects gross-gaming receipts to plunge 19.6 percent after earlier estimating an 8 percent drop, while HSBC Holdings Plc’s projection swung to a 7 percent decline from a 6 percent gain. SJM fell 7.4 percent this year, with Galaxy declining 6.3 percent. Hong Kong’s retail sales growth by value at the end of November was less than a third of what it was at the start of last year, according to the most recent data available. Jewellery chain Luk Fook Holdings (International) Ltd. said same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau dropped 6 percent last quarter because of pro-democracy protests. The city’s peg to the U.S. dollar may also push visitors to cheaper destinations, said JPMorgan Asset’s Hui. Luk Fook fell 1 percent this year. “Some Hong Kong retailers are struggling with a weaker consumer market here on lower spending by mainland tourists because of curbs on corruption and China’s economic slowdown,” said Louis Wong, director of Phillip Asset Management (HK) Ltd., which oversees about $200 million. Leon Goldfeld, investment director at Amundi Ltd., sees a bright spot for Hong Kong’s market in Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd. and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., among the biggest advancers this year on the city’s MSCI equity gauge. The stocks both jumped 17 percent through Thursday since billionaire Li Ka- shing on Jan. 9 announced a $24 billion proposal to merge and spin off the real-estate assets of his two main companies. The MSCI Hong Kong index posted a 5.5 percent advance this month, compared with a 2.2 percent drop for the H-share index. Chinese shares sank last week after the Xinhua News Agency reported a mainland regulator was planning a new round of checks into the margin-lending businesses of brokerages. More scrutiny will create volatility, although it’s ultimately good for capital markets, said Steven Rees, global head of equity strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, which oversees about $1.1 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index plunged the most since 2008 on Jan. 19 after regulators suspended China’s three biggest brokerages from adding margin accounts. There is further upside for H shares, which are trading near the biggest discount to their mainland counterparts since October 2011. This will prompt investors to sell local stocks and pick up cheaper China shares available in Hong Kong, said Dickie Wong, an executive director of research at Kingston Financial Group. “The real interest is still on the China market rather than Hong Kong,” said UOB’s Leung. “We will see more policy from the government on the economy and there is still a chance for China to provide more liquidity through RRR or interest rate cuts.” Bloomberg F4 NATURE 02.02.2015 mon 自然 By Gerald Herbert, Grand Isle N AP PHOTO Cold-stunned turtles rehabilitated in New Orleans, released EARLY two dozen turtles that were stranded by cold weather last year in Massachusetts have successfully undergone rehab and have been returned to waters off Louisiana’s coast. More than 1,200 young, “cold-stunned” Kemp’s ridley sea turtles were stranded in November and December. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “cold-stunning” occurs when the circulatory systems of sea turtles exposed to frigid water temperatures for several days slow down to a point where the turtles cannot function. Various sea-turtle rehabilitation facilities along the east and Gulf coasts joined in the effort to care for the stunned turtles. Suzanne Smith, stranding- and-rescue coordinator for the Audubon Nature Institute for Marine Mammals and Sea Turtles, said 21 of the 27 turtles she and her colleagues received were released into the Gulf of Mexico, 38 kilome- Suzanne Smith, Stranding & Rescue Coordinator of Marine Mammals & Sea Turtles for the Audubon Nature Institute, releases ters off the coast of Grand Isle an endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle last week. “It was a beautiful day,” she said. “We couldn’t have asked for a more beautiful day.” The turtles were placed in open produce boxes and carefully transported for about 100 miles from the institute’s aquatic center before being loaded onto the back of two boats, one provided by Audubon and the other by the state Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. Carefully shielded from the sun, they were then transported out to sea, where the boats’ engines were shut off to ensure the turtles’ safe re-entry into the wild. Each turtle was released by hand on a cloudless, sunny day with temperatures in the low 70s and calm seas — a sharp contrast to the conditions that existed when they were stranded in New England. The turtles immediately swam from the boats, disappearing into the sun-warmed water as Smith and Audubon Nature Institute veterinarian Dr. Tres Clarke exchanged a triumphant high-five. One of the 27 turtles the Audubon institute received did not survive, Smith said. The other five, which had suffered from pneumonia or problems with their shells and flippers, will remain in the rescuers’ care for about a month to receive antibiotics and nutrition. “Their prognosis, though, is good,” she said. AP ASK THE VET by Dr Ruan Du Toit Bester 10 Causes of Canine and Feline Heart Murmurs H EART murmurs are unusual sounds the blood makes when leaving or moving through the heart. A cat or dog heart murmur is rated from Grade 1 through Grade 6, with Grade 6 being the most severe. There are a number of causes resulting in canine and feline heart murmurs. Some conditions may be resolved with surgery. 1) Sometimes a heart has some abnormality or defect with the heart wall itself or the valves within the heart due to genetics (hereditary). Often a puppy or kitten is born with a heart murmur that he will grow out of in several months. This condition is not unusual and does not impair the heart. Often surgery can repair deformities in the heart valves. 2) Severe anaemia resulting from flea and/or tick infestations can affect the heart. Nutritional supplements can treat the heart murmur. 3) The narrowing of the outflow area of the pulmonary artery at the exit from the right ventricle of the heart is called pulmonic stenosis. Here the murmur is the result of the abnormal turbulence of outgoing blood meeting resistance. 4) The same condition as above except occurring in the aorta outflow area is called aortic stenosis. 5) Tetralogy of Fallot is a complex defect affecting emerging arteries of the heart and more than one segment of the heart. Pulmonic stenosis causes the heart murmur. 6) A hole in the interior wall of the pumping chambers is called ventricular septal defect (VSD) and if the hole is very large may not even result in a murmur since little to no turbulence occurs. 7) One of the more common causes is mitral valve dysplasia, which is a defect resulting in a leaky valve causing the murmur from the turbulence of blood reflux. 8) Patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) results when the duct in the fetal heart does not close after birth. This produces a shunting of blood, which may result in a heart murmur only if the shunting of the blood occurs from left-to-right side of the heart. 9) Hyperthyroid disease is the leading cause of heart murmurs in cats. This disease can be treated using a combination of medication therapies and/or surgery. For the most part, heart murmurs are not life threatening. Cats can outgrow them or surgery and/or medications can correct them. 10) The heart disease canine or feline cardiomyopathy can also contribute to heart murmurs. This disease causes the heart muscles to change shape, stretch or thicken making it difficult for the heart to work properly. Often medications will improve the efficiency of the heart by reducing the workload on the heart and increasing the elasticity of the heart muscles themselves. Till next week Hope this helps Dr Ruan Ask the Vet: Royal Veterinary Centre Tel: +853 28501099, +853 28523678 Emergency: +853 62662268 Email: [email protected]
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