US Marketscan and Platts

[OIL ]
www.platts.com
US MARKETSCAN
Volume 40 / Issue 236 / December 9, 2014
Atlantic Coast
Code
MidChange
Code
Code
Mid Change
Code
New York Harbor
(PGA page 152)
Delivered cargo (¢/gal)
RVP
FOB barge
RVP
Unleaded 87
AAMHG00 178.65–178.75178.700 +1.110
AAMHGRV
15.0 AAMIT00
177.66–177.76177.710
+1.100
AAMITRV15.0
Unleaded 89
AAMIW00 190.75–190.85190.800 +1.110
AAMIWRV
15.0 AAMHJ00
189.76–189.86189.810
+1.100
AAMHJRV15.0
Unleaded 93
AAMIZ00 208.89–208.99208.940 +1.110
AAMIZRV
15.0 AAMHM00
207.91–208.01207.960
+1.100
AAMHMRV15.0
CBOB
AAWBK00 173.29–173.39173.340 +0.750
AAWBKRV
15.0 AAWBL00
172.31–172.41172.360
+0.750
AAWBLRV15.0
Prem CBOB
AAWLD00 206.39–206.49206.440 +0.860
AAWLDRV
15.0 AAWLC00
205.41–205.51205.460
+0.850
AAWLCRV15.0
Unleaded RBOB
AAVKS00 173.29–173.39173.340 +1.050
AAVKSRV
15.0 AAMGV00
172.31–172.41172.360
+1.200
AAMGVRV15.0
Premium RBOB
AAVKT00 206.39–206.49206.440 +0.860
AAVKTRV
15.0 AAMGY00
205.41–205.51205.460
+0.850
AAMGYRV15.0
ULS Kero
AAVTH00 236.30–236.40236.350 +1.800 AAVTI00
237.30–237.40237.350
+1.800
Low sulfur jet
PJABK00 218.30–218.40218.350 +1.800 PJABJ00
219.30–219.40219.350
+1.800
Jet
PJAAX00 208.05–208.15208.100 +1.550 PJAAW00
209.05–209.15209.100
+1.550
ULSD
AATGW00 213.80–213.90213.850 +5.800 AATGX00
213.80–213.90213.850
+5.800
No. 2
POAEH00 191.30–191.40191.350 +3.050 POAEG00
192.30–192.40192.350
+3.050
ULS Heating Oil
AAXPX00211.350
+6.550
FOB cargo ($/barrel) diff vs 1% strip
Fuel oil 1%
AAWLG0054.89–54.9154.900
-0.140
AAWLG20-0.120
Fuel oil RMG 380
AAWLF0056.34–56.3656.350
-0.140
AAWLF20 1.330
Platts Futures Assessments 3:15 pm ET*
Delivered cargo ($/barrel)
diff vs 1% strip
2:30 PM ETPlatts 3:15 PM ET 2:30 PM vs
No. 6 .3% HP
PUAAE0073.39–73.4173.400
-0.140
AAUGA0018.380
Settlement
Futures Assessment3:15 PM Spread
No. 6 .3% LP
PUAAB0074.89–74.9174.900
-0.140
AAUGB0019.880
No. 6 .7%
PUAAH0058.74–58.7658.750
-0.140
AAUGC003.730
No. 6 1%
PUAAO0055.24–55.2655.250
-0.140
AAUGD000.230
(PGA page 701)
NYMEX Light Sweet Crude ($/barrel)
No. 6 2.2%
PUAAU0054.49–54.5154.500
-0.040
AAUGE00-0.520
Jan
AAWS001 63.82 NYCRM0163.77
AAWD0010.05
No. 6 3.0%
PUAAX0054.34–54.3654.350
-0.040
AAUGF00-0.670
No. 6 1% strip
AAUGG0055.01–55.0355.020
+0.250
AAWS002 63.98 NYCRM0263.92
AAWD0020.06
Feb
Swaps
AAWS003 64.15 NYCRM03 64.07 AAWD0030.08
NA No.6 1% BalMo (Dec)
AARZS0055.09–55.1155.100
+0.250
AAWS004 64.34 NYCRM04 64.25 AAWD0040.09
Apr
No.6 1% M1 (Jan)
PUAXD0054.70–54.8054.750
+0.250
No.6 1% M2 (Feb)
PUAXF0054.90–55.0054.950
+0.250
NYMEX RBOB (¢/gal)
(PGA page 701)
No.6 1% Q1 ( Q1 15)
PUAXG0054.90–55.0054.950
+0.250
Cargo ex-duty* (¢/gal)
duty+RINS**
Unl-87
AASAA00 171.26–171.36171.310 +1.000
AASAH007.390
Unl-89
AASAB00 183.34–183.44183.390 +1.000
AASAI007.410
Unl-93
AASAC00 201.46–201.56201.510 +1.000
AASAJ007.430
CBOB
AASAD00 165.91–166.01165.960 +0.650
AASAK007.380
Prem CBOB
AASAE00 198.96–199.06199.010 +0.750
AASAL007.430
Unl RBOB
AASAF00 165.91–166.01165.960 +0.950
AASAM007.380
Prem RBOB
AASAG00 198.96–199.06199.010 +0.750
AASAN007.430
120k barrel fuel oil barge rate ($/barrel)
NYH-Boston
AASTV00 2.300
NYH-Philadelphia
AASTX00 2.200
NYH-Baltimore
AASTW00 1.950
*These assessments reflect gasoline cargoes sold on a delivered, ex-duty basis New York, excluding import duty, import taxes/fees, and Renewable Identification Number
(RINS) credits. **These assessments reflect import duty, import fees, and the value of RINS credits for a gasoline cargo sold into New York Harbor. The RINS value is
derived from Platts assessments of 2013 calendar-year RINS.
Jan
Feb
NA AARS001 172.36 NYRBM01171.96
AARD0010.40
AARS002 173.60 NYRBM02173.23
AARD0020.37
AARS003 175.70 NYRBM03 175.31 AARD0030.39
AAHS001208.40
NYHOM01208.35
AAHD0010.05
AAHS002206.31
NYHOM02206.17
AAHD0020.14
AAHS003 204.76
NYHOM03 204.57 AAHD0030.19
NYMEX NY ULSD (¢/gal)
Jan
Feb
NA (PGA page 701)
* These assessments reflect prevailing futures value exactly at 3:15 pm ET.
However, on the business day preceding the following holidays, these assessments reflect the value of futures at precisely 1:30 pm ET: Christmas Day, New
Years Day, Fourth of July, and Thanksgiving Day.
US Marketscan
Market Commentary
Atlantic Coast
US Gasoline
Market analysis: (PGA page 399) Gulf Coast conventional
gasoline differentials rose Tuesday for a sixth straight
trading day as bargain hunters flooded the buy side in
the afternoon. A cadre of sellers brave enough to test
the market favored prompt deals over long-term ones,
market sources said. Differentials also rose in the
Midwest Group 3 and Chicago gasoline cash markets. “I
have to admit I have warmed up to gas,” a US products
broker said. Gulf Coast conventional gasoline at 13.5
RVP (M4) was assessed at NYMEX January RBOB futures
minus 12.5 cents/gal, up 2.45 cents from Monday and
6.9 cents from December 1. M4’s differential now has
increased eight of the last 11 trading days after a bear
run that saw it fall 25 of 39 trading days. “I didn’t see
much buying most of the day until early afternoon, and
I wasn’t expecting it when it happened,” a second US
products broker said. “There could be a lack of sellers
in the later cycles, January and February, and that
is helping move the prompt [values] up. But nothing
is extremely clear.” The M4 market found support in
Colonial Pipeline’s 70th through 72nd cycles this year
and the first and second cycles in 2015. Contango
through the second cycle developed at about 6 points/
day, compared with about 1 point/day during the next
week. Support at the back end of the pipeline market
gave the prompt trade a boost, market sources said.
Buyers Tuesday outnumbered sellers by a 3-to-2 ratio in
the Platts Market on Close assessment process, with
Trafigura leading the buy side with 100,000 barrels of
M4 purchased from Phillips 66, Musket and Lukoil. M4’s
outright price rose for only the second time in the last
10 trading days, rising 4.55 cents to $1.5991/gal. “It
might stay in the $1.50 to $1.60 range on M4 outright,
but that is just a guess,” the second US broker said.
“Futures coming off so much [before Tuesday] should
help the differentials to put in somewhat of a floor, I’d
expect. But who knows?” Atlantic Coast cash gasoline
differentials saw no significant movement. The New York
December 9, 2014
Code
Mid
ChangeCode
Boston
(PGA page 152)
Cargo (¢/gal)
Unleaded RBOB
AAVPV00176.04–176.14 176.090
Low sulfur jet
PJABL00220.80–220.90 220.850
ULS Kero
AAVTJ00238.80–238.90 238.850
No.2
POAEA00196.30–196.40 196.350
ULSD
AATHD00215.80–215.90 215.850
+0.800
+1.800
+1.800
+3.050
+5.800
($/barrel)
No. 6 2.2%
PUAWN0055.34–55.36 55.350 -0.040
CPL Linden*
(PGA page 410)
(¢/gal)
Cycle
Jet kero 54
AAXPV00 209.100
+1.550
AAXPVCY66
AAXPU00 211.350
+6.550
AAXPUCY65
ULS Heating Oil
AAXPW00 213.850
+6.050
AAXPWCY65
ULSD *Assessments reflect shipments on the next full pipeline cycle after the prompt cycle.
Buckeye Pipeline
(PGA page 154)
(¢/gal)
RVP
CBOB
AAPSY00172.31–172.41 172.360 +0.750
AAPSYRV15.0
AAPSZ00205.41–205.51 205.460 +0.850
AAPSZRV15.0
CBOB Prem
AAMHB00172.31–172.41 172.360 +1.200
AAMHBRV15.0
Unleaded RBOB
AAMHZ00205.41–205.51 205.460 +0.850
AAMHZRV15.0
Premium RBOB
AAJNL00209.05–209.15 209.100 +1.550
Jet fuel
Low sulfur jet/kerosene
AAJNN00219.30–219.40 219.350 +1.800
ULSD
AATHF00213.80–213.90 213.850 +5.800
No.2
AAJNP00192.30–192.40 192.350 +3.050
Buckeye Pipeline Ratables
(PGA page 310)
(¢/gal)
RVP
RBOB
AAVSS00171.56–171.66 171.610 +1.100
AAVSSRV15.0
AAVSR00171.56–171.66 171.610 +1.100
AAVSRRV15.0
CBOB
Laurel Pipeline
(PGA page 154)
(¢/gal)
RVP
RBOB
AASSM00172.06–172.16 172.110 +1.200
AASSMRV15.0
AASSN00205.16–205.26 205.210 +0.850
AASSNRV15.0
Premium RBOB
AAUAS00172.06–172.16 172.110 +0.750
AAUASRV15.0
CBOB
AAUAT00205.16–205.26 205.210 +0.850
AAUATRV15.0
Premium CBOB
Harbor barge-delivered regular RBOB differential rose
10 points to be assessed at the NYMEX January RBOB
futures contract plus 40 points/gal, with an outright of
$1.7236/gal. The Group 3 suboctane cash differential
rallied 2 cents to be assessed at NYMEX January RBOB
minus 12 cents/gal, putting the outright up 3.1 cents
at $1.5996/gal. The suboctane cash differential is up
10.25 cents since December 1. Market sources have
cited low gasoline inventories in the Midwest, a weak
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
NYMEX futures contract and recent strength in Gulf
Coast gasoline for the strength in suboctane. “Prices are
low because crude is low, not because of weak demand
in products,” a Midwest source said. The second-cycle
Chicago CBOB cash differential jumped 4.75 cents to
be assessed at NYMEX January RBOB minus 10 cents/
gal, where it was last heard to trade. The CBOB outright
was up 5.9 cents at $1.6196/gal. Market sources have
cited the strength in Chicago gasoline spot market to
2
US Marketscan
December 9, 2014
Gulf Coast
Code
MidChange
Code
Code
Mid
Change Code Code
Houston
(PGA page 156)
Waterborne (¢/gal)
RVP
Prompt Pipeline
Cycle
RVP
Unleaded 87
PGACU00161.61–161.71 161.660 +3.550
PGACURV13.5
PGACT00 159.86–159.96159.910
+3.550
PGACTCY69
PGACTRV13.5
Unleaded 89
PGAAZ00168.03–168.13 168.080 +3.270
PGAAZRV13.5
PGAAY00 166.28–166.38166.330
+3.270
PGAAYCY69
PGAAYRV13.5
Unleaded 93
PGAIX00177.66–177.76 177.710 +2.850
PGAIXRV13.5
PGAJB00 175.91–176.01175.960
+2.850
PGAJBCY69
PGAJBRV13.5
CBOB 87
AAWES00157.41–157.51 157.460 +2.850
AAWESRV13.5
AARQU00 155.66–155.76155.710
+2.850
AARQUCY69
AARQURV13.5
CBOB 93
AAWET00177.56–177.66 177.610 +1.750
AAWETRV13.5
AARQV00 175.81–175.91175.860
+1.750
AARQVCY69
AARQVRV13.5
RBOB 83.7
AAMFB00 157.66–157.76157.710
+3.350
AAMFBCY69
AAMFBRV13.5
RBOB 91.4
AAMNG00 175.86–175.96175.910
+0.800
AAMNGCY69
AAMNGRV13.5
Jet 54
PJABM00189.80–189.90 189.850 -2.950
PJABO00 188.05–188.15188.100
-2.950
PJABOCY69
Jet 55
PJABN00193.30–193.40 193.350 -2.950
PJABP00 191.55–191.65191.600
-2.950
PJABPCY69
ULS Kero
AAVTK00204.05–204.15 204.100 -2.950
AAVTL00 202.30–202.40202.350
-2.950
AAVTLCY69
Ultra low sulfur diesel
AATGZ00192.80–192.90 192.850 +2.600
AATGY00 190.55–190.65190.600
+2.600
AATGYCY69
No. 2
POAEE00187.05–187.15 187.100 +7.300
POAED00 173.30–173.40173.350
+7.300
POAEDCY69
ULS Heating Oil
AAXFD00 185.80–185.90185.850
+2.800
AAXFDCY69
($/barrel)diff vs 3% strip
PPAPW00
53.59–53.61 53.600
+0.070
AAUGS00
0.900
Slurry Oil
No. 6 1% 6ºAPI min
PUAAI0057.24–57.26 57.250 +0.020
AAUGT00
4.550
No. 6 3%
PUAFZ00
52.54–52.56 52.550
+0.120
AAUGU00
-0.150
RMG 380
PUBDM00
53.81–53.83 53.820
+0.040
AAUGV00
1.120
No. 6 3% strip
AAUGW0052.69–52.71 52.700 +0.150
Swaps
No.6 3% BalMo (Dec)
AARZT0052.69–52.71 52.700 +0.150
No.6 3% M1 (Jan)
PUAXJ0052.50–52.60 52.550 +0.250
No.6 3% M2 (Feb)
PUAXL0052.80–52.90 52.850 +0.250
No.6 3% Q1 ( Q1 15)
PUAXN0052.80–52.90 52.850 +0.250
NEW
FOB Cargo (¢/gal)
FOB Cargo ($/mt)
Export ULSD
AAXRV00 188.923
+0.947
AAXRW00591.141
+2.963
strong buying by Marathon Petroleum, which owns three
refineries in the Midwest. A Marathon spokesman was
not immediately available for comment. After the MOC
process, CBOB was heard to be bid at minus 9 cents/
gal. Second-cycle Chicago RBOB jumped 3.75 cents to
be assessed at minus 5 cents/gal. The RBOB outright
strengthened 4.9 cents to $1.6696/gal. The Los
Angeles CARBOB cash differential fell 2.75 cents to be
assessed at NYMEX January RBOB minus 9.75 gal, after
50,000 barrels were heard to trade at that level and
rebid. Los Angeles CARBOB against the February futures
contract was heard to trade at minus 5 cents/gal. The
Portland suboctane cash differential fell 1 cent to be
assessed at NYMEX January RBOB minus 19.50 cents/
gal. “It’s oversupplied,” a West Coast source said, “That
is why I would think we should see run cuts or exports.”
Gasoline Unl 87 Chicago Pipe assessment rationale:
(PGA page 388) Platts on Tuesday assessed 15 RVP
Chicago unleaded gasoline at NYMEX January RBOB
minus 9 cents/gal, 1 cent above CBOB. CBOB was
assessed at NYMEX January RBOB minus 10 cents/gal,
based on market indications at that level.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PGACR00
Gasoline Prem Unl 91 Group 3 Pipeline assessment
rationale: (PGA page 388) Platts on Tuesday assessed 15
RVP A-grade premium gasoline at NYMEX January RBOB
plus 26.75 cents/gal, based on a premium of 38.75
cents to V-grade suboctane.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PGABD00
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
Gasoline Unl Sub Octane Group 3 Pipeline: (PGA page 388)
Platts on Tuesday assessed 15 RVP V-grade suboctane
at NYMEX January RBOB minus 12 cents/gal, based on
market indications at that level.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: AAXIX00
Gasoline Unl 87 USGC Prompt Pipeline assessment
rationale: (PGA page 384) Platts assessed pipelinedelivered 13.5 RVP conventional gasoline (M4) at
NYMEX January RBOB futures minus 12.05 cents/gal on
Tuesday. The assessment was based on a Vitol offer to
sell 25,000 barrels at NYMEX January RBOB minus 12
cents/gal following one trade at NYMEX January RBOB
minus 11.85 cents/gal, which preceded several trades
at NYMEX January RBOB minus 12 cents/gal.
3
US Marketscan
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PGACT00
Gulf Coast (continued)
Gasoline CBOB 87 USGC Houston Prompt Pipeline
assessment rationale: (PGA page 384) Platts assessed
pipeline-delivered 13.5 RVP CBOB (A4) at NYMEX
January RBOB futures minus 16.25 cents/gal on
Tuesday, based on a Morgan Stanley bid for 25,000
barrels at NYMEX January RBOB minus 16.5 cents/gal.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: AARQU00
NYMEX RBOB at Houston MOC Mo01 assessment
rationale: (PGA page 377) Platts assessed the NYMEX
January RBOB futures contract at $1.7196/gal at 3:15 pm
EST (2015 GMT) Tuesday, based on a trade at that level.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: NYRBM01
NYMEX RBOB at Houston MOC Mo02 assessment
rationale: (PGA page 377) Platts assessed the NYMEX
February RBOB futures contract at $1.7323/gal at 3:15
pm EST (2015 GMT) Tuesday, with the most competitive
offer at $1.7324/gal.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: NYRBM02
Gasoline RBOB NY Barge assessment rationale: (PGA
page 381) New York Harbor barge-delivered regular
RBOB (F5) at 15 RVP for loading December 12-16 was
assessed Tuesday at the NYMEX January RBOB futures
contract plus 40 points/gal, based on an indication
received outside the Platts Market on Close assessment
process. Close to the 3:15 pm EST (2015 GMT) cutoff
time, F5 for parcels loading December 14 were heard
talked at the January NYMEX RBOB futures contract plus
40 points/gal.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: AAMGV00
US Midwest Gasoline bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 389)
■■There were no bids, offers, or trades during the
assessment process.
December 9, 2014
Code Mid
Code Code
Houston extended pipeline cycle assessments
(PGA page 156)
Pipeline
Cycle RVP
AAELC00159.86–159.96 159.910
AAELCCY69
AAELCRV13.5
Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 1
Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 2
AAELD00159.91–160.01 159.960
AAELDCY70
AAELDRV13.5
Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 3
AAELE00160.26–160.36 160.310
AAELECY71
AAELERV13.5
Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 4
AAELF00160.61–160.71 160.660
AAELFCY72
AAELFRV13.5
Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 5
AAELG00160.98–161.08 161.030
AAELGCY1
AAELGRV13.5
Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 6
AAELH00161.33–161.43 161.380
AAELHCY2
AAELHRV13.5
Premium 93 Front Cycle 1
AAELI00175.91–176.01 175.960
AAELICY69
AAELIRV13.5
Premium 93 Front Cycle 2
AAELJ00175.96–176.06 176.010
AAELJCY70
AAELJRV13.5
Premium 93 Front Cycle 3
AAELK00176.31–176.41 176.360
AAELKCY71
AAELKRV13.5
Premium 93 Front Cycle 4
AAELL00176.66–176.76 176.710
AAELLCY72
AAELLRV13.5
Premium 93 Front Cycle 5
AAELM00177.03–177.13 177.080
AAELMCY1
AAELMRV13.5
Premium 93 Front Cycle 6
AAELN00177.38–177.48 177.430
AAELNCY2
AAELNRV13.5
Jet kerosene Front Cycle 1
AAELQ00188.05–188.15 188.100
AAELQCY69
Jet kerosene Front Cycle 2
AAELR00190.55–190.65 190.600
AAELRCY70
Jet kerosene Front Cycle 3
AAELS00191.80–191.90 191.850
AAELSCY71
Jet kerosene Front Cycle 4
AAELT00193.05–193.15 193.100
AAELTCY72
Jet kerosene Front Cycle 5
AAELU00193.62–193.72 193.670
AAELUCY1
Jet kerosene Front Cycle 6
AAELV00194.12–194.22 194.170
AAELVCY2
Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 1
AAUJV00190.55–190.65 190.600
AAUJVCY69
Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 2
AAUJW00192.05–192.15 192.100
AAUJWCY70
Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 3
AAUJX00193.05–193.15 193.100
AAUJXCY71
Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 4
AAUJY00194.05–194.15 194.100
AAUJYCY72
Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 5
AAUJZ00194.37–194.47 194.420
AAUJZCY1
Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 6
AAUKD00194.67–194.77 194.720
AAUKDCY2
No. 2 Front Cycle 1
AAELW00173.30–173.40 173.350
AAELWCY69
No. 2 Front Cycle 2
AAELX00174.05–174.15 174.100
AAELXCY70
No. 2 Front Cycle 3
AAELZ00174.55–174.65 174.600
AAELZCY71
No. 2 Front Cycle 4
AAEMA00175.05–175.15 175.100
AAEMACY72
No. 2 Front Cycle 5
AAEMB00174.87–174.97 174.920
AAEMBCY1
No. 2 Front Cycle 6
AAEMC00175.37–175.47 175.420
AAEMCCY2
ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 1
AAXFJ00185.80–185.90 185.850
AAXFJCY69
ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 2
AAXFK00187.30–187.40 187.350
AAXFKCY70
ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 3
AAXFL00188.30–188.40 188.350
AAXFLCY71
ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 4
AAXFM00189.30–189.40 189.350
AAXFMCY72
ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 5
AAXFN00189.37–189.47 189.420
AAXFNCY1
ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 6
AAXFP00189.87–189.97 189.920
AAXFPCY2
Please note: Front Cycle 1 was formerly described as prompt front; Front Cycle 2 was formerly described as prompt back; Front Cycle 3 was formerly described as next
front; Front Cycle 4 was formerly described as next back; Front Cycle 5 was formerly described as after front; Front Cycle 6 was formerly described as after back
US Midwest Gasoline exclusions: (PGA page 389)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
USGC Gasoline bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 385)
■■TRADES: C69: M4: 25K: Noble buys Vit offer -12;
M4: 25K: Noble buys MS offer -12; M4: 25K: Musket
sells Trafi -12; M4: 25K: Noble buys Luk -11.85; M4:
25K: P66 sells Trafi -12; M4: 25K: P66 sells Trafi -12;
M4: 25K: Noble buys Vit -12; M4: 25K: Trafi buys Luk
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
-11.85; V4: 25K: Apex buys P66 offer 4.
■■BIDS: C69: A4: MS bid -16.5, Noble bid -16.75, Luk
bid -18.25, Sun bid -19.75; M4: Nville bid -13.75,
Noble bid -14, MS bid -14, Luk bid -14; F5: MS bid
-16.75, Sun bid -19.5.
■■OFFERS: C69: A4: Vit offer -16; M4: Vit offer -12, Luk
offer -11.85, Vit offer -11.75, Nville offer -11.65, CGI
offer -11.5.
4
US Marketscan
USGC Gasoline exclusions: (PGA page 385)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
USAC Gasoline bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 382)
■■No bids/offers/trades were seen during the December
9 assessment.
USAC Gasoline exclusions: (PGA page 382)
■■No data was excluded from the December 9
assessment.
US Heating Oil
Market analysis: (PGA page 497) US Gulf Coast heating
oil moved slightly lower Tuesday, as Colonial Pipeline
cycle 69 moved to become the prompt scheduling cycle.
Platts on Tuesday assessed Gulf Coast heating oil at
the NYMEX January heating oil futures contract minus
35 cents/gal for cycle 69. On Monday, Cycle 69 was
assessed at minus 34.75 cents/gal, while cycle 68 was
assessed at minus 39.50 cents/gal. The Gulf Coast
waterborne premium was unchanged at 13.75 cents/
gal. In New York Harbor, heating oil was slightly weaker,
at minus 16.25 cents/gal, based on market talk with bid
at minus 16.50 cents/gal against offers at minus 16
cents/gal. Ultra Low Sulfur heating oil was stronger, at
plus 3 cents/gal, based on trades reported on Colonial
Pipeline cycle 65 for delivery into Linden, New Jersey.
Gasoil No.2 USGC Prompt Pipeline assessment
rationale: (PGA page 453) US Gulf Coast heating oil for
Colonial Pipeline was assessed Tuesday at NYMEX
January ULSD futures minus 35 cents/gal, based on
a trade at that level. Phillips 66 sold to Trafigura at
minus 34.75 cents/gal, and subsequently bought from
Glencore at minus 35 cents/gal.
December 9, 2014
Gulf Coast (continued)
Code Mid
Code Code
Atlanta
(PGA page 156)
Prompt Pipeline (¢/gal)
Cycle RVP
Atl CBOB 87
AAWRV00155.66–155.76 155.710 +2.850
AAWRVCY69 AAWRVRV13.5
AAWRW00175.81–175.91 175.860 +1.750
AAWRWCY69 AAWRWRV13.5
Atl CBOB 93
Feedstocks and Blendstocks
(PGF page 760)
FOB Cargo (¢/gal)FOB Cargo ($/mt)
Naphtha
AAXJP00151.61–151.71 151.660 +4.050
AAXJU00530.79–530.89 530.840 +14.180
Cargo (¢/gal)
Naphtha
PAAAC00149.61–149.71 149.660 +4.050
Heavy Naphtha
AAKWL00152.36–152.46 152.410 +3.550
vs Mont Belvieu
FOB Parcel 10-30 days (¢/gal)
non-Targa natural gasoline (¢/gal)
AAXQK00 126.000
-1.500
AAXQN00
3.000
-2.000
Light Straight Run Naphtha
FOB Parcel 10-30 days ($/mt)
Light Straight Run Naphtha
AAXQM00 505.260
-6.020
Barge 7-14 days (¢/gal)
Naphtha
AALPG00150.61–150.71 150.660 +4.050
Heavy Naphtha
AALPI00153.36–153.46 153.410 +3.550
Barge 5-15 days (¢/gal)
MTBE
PHAKX00237.00–237.10 237.050 +5.900
vs Mont Belvieu
Barge 5-15 days ($/mt) non-Targa natural gasoline (¢/gal)
AAYEU00464.90–465.00 464.950 -5.500
AAYEW003.750
Paraffinic Naphtha
FOB pipeline (¢/gal)
Alkylate
AAXBA00 197.99
+3.690
AAXBB00 135.24
+3.690
Raffinate
AAXBC00 223.74
+3.690
Reformate
vs waterborne 87 (¢/gal)
vs pipeline 87 (¢/gal)
AAFIE0036.00 AAXBD0037.750
AAJMU00-26.75 AAXBE00-25.000
AAJMV0061.75 AAXBF0063.500
Gas Liquids
(PGA page 780)
Non-LST Mt Belvieu (¢/gal)
Ethane/propane
PMUDA0516.20–16.30 16.250 +1.250
Ethane purity
PMUDB0517.20–17.30 17.250 +1.250
Propane
PMAAY0052.20–52.30 52.250 +2.250
Normal butane
PMAAI0072.95–73.05 73.000 0.000
Isobutane
PMAAB0073.20–73.30 73.250 +0.500
Natural gasoline Targa
PMABW05122.20–122.30 122.250 +0.500
Natural gasoline non-Targa
PMABY05122.95–123.05 123.000 +0.500
Natural gasoline non-Targa #2
AAWUG00124.35–124.45 124.400 +0.650
LST Mt Belvieu Conway, Kansas
Mid
Change
Ethane/Propane
PMAAO0016.20–16.30 16.250 +1.250
Propane
PMABQ0052.45–52.55 52.500 +2.500
PMAAT0051.10–51.20 51.150 +1.150
Normal butane
PMABR0068.95–69.05 69.000 0.000
PMAAD0079.45–79.55 79.500 +1.250
Isobutane
AAIVD0073.20–73.30 73.250 +0.500
PMAAA0082.20–82.30 82.250 -0.750
Natural gasoline
AAIVF00124.20–124.30 124.250 +0.750
PMAAQ00124.85–124.95 124.900 +0.900
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: POAED00
Waterborne FOB Houston ($/mt)Waterborne FOB Houston (¢/gal)
Propane
AAXIM00303.99–304.01 304.000 +25.890
AAXIN0058.34–58.36 58.350 +4.970
Propane vs. Mt Belvieu
AAXIO0028.65–28.67 28.660+14.330
AAXIP005.45–5.55
5.500
+2.750
ULS Heating Oil USGC Prompt Pipeline assessment
rationale: (PGA page 453) US Gulf Coast ultra low sulfur
VLGC Freight Rates ($/mt)VLGC Freight Rates (¢/gal)
Houston to NWE
AAXIQ0070.00 AAXIR0013.44
AAXIS00220.00 AAXIT0042.23
Houston to Japan
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
5
US Marketscan
heating oil for Colonial Pipeline was assessed Tuesday
at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 22.50 cents/gal,
based on market indications.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: AAXFD00
Gasoil No.2 New York Harbor Barge assessment
rationale: (PGA page 443) New York heating oil barges
were assessed Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures
minus 16 cents/gal, based on market indications.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: POAEG00
NYMEX NY ULSD at Houston MOC Mo01 assessment
rationale: (PGA page 447) Platts assessed the NYMEX
January ULSD futures contract at $2.0835/gal at 3:15
pm EST (2015 GMT) Tuesday, based on 12 trades at
that level.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: NYHOM01
NYMEX NY ULSD at Houston MOC Mo02 assessment
rationale: (PGA page 447) Platts assessed the NYMEX
February ULSD futures contract at $2.0617/gal at 3:15
pm EST (2015 GMT) Tuesday, with the most competitive
bid at $2.0616/gal
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: NYHOM02
USGC Gasoil bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 454)
■■Trades: Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, PHCO SELLS
TO BPP bids -$0.3475 for 25; Platts Distillates 77
USGC C69, PHCO BUYS FROM GLT offers -$0.3500
for 25.
■■Bids: Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, VIT bids
-$0.3750 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69,
KOCH bids -$0.3800 for 25; Platts Distillates 77
USGC C69, NOBLEA bids -$0.3825 for 25; Platts
Distillates 77 USGC C69, GLT bids -$0.3900 for 25;
Platts Distillates 77 USGC C70, VIT bids -$0.3475
for 25.
December 9, 2014
Midwest (¢/gal)
Code
Pipeline
MidChange
Code
RVP
Chicago
Unleaded 87
Unleaded 89
Premium 91
CBOB
PBOB
RBOB
Jet
ULSD
ULS No.1
PGACR00162.91–163.01
PGAAX00182.51–182.61
PPASQ00211.91–212.01
AAREL00161.91–162.01
AAUEU00216.91–217.01
PPARH00166.91–167.01
PJAAF00228.55–228.65
AATHA00199.30–199.40
PJACD00244.30–244.40
162.960
182.560
211.960
161.960
216.960
166.960
228.600
199.350
244.350
+5.850
+5.850
+5.850
+5.850
+4.850
+4.850
+2.800
-1.200
-1.200
PGACRRV15.0
PGAAXRV15.0
PPASQRV15.0
AARELRV15.0
AAUEURV15.0
PPARHRV15.0
Group 3
Sub-octane
Premium 91
Jet
ULSD
ULS No.1
AAXIX00159.91–160.01
PGABD00198.66–198.76
PJAAI00212.30–212.40
AATHB00197.10–197.20
PJACB00252.10–252.20
159.960
198.710
212.350
197.150
252.150
+3.100
+3.100
+3.550
+1.150
+1.150
AAXIXRV15.0
PGABDRV15.0
(PGA page 160)
(PGA page 160)
West Coast
Code
Los Angeles
AAUHA00
Unleaded 84
PGABG00
Unleaded 88.5
AAKYJ00
CARBOB
AAKYL00
CARBOB Prem
PJAAP00
Jet
ULS (EPA) Diesel
POAET00
CARB Diesel
POAAK00
Pipeline (¢/gal)
161.16–161.26
181.16–181.26
162.16–162.26
170.16–170.26
200.30–200.40
198.55–198.65
199.55–199.65
AANVX00
CARBOB
vs NYMEX RBOB
-9.80–-9.70
Mid
CodeRVP
(PGA page 158)
161.210
181.210
162.210
170.210
200.350
198.600
199.600
vs NYMEX Heating Oil
AANVY00
-8.05–-7.95
Jet Fuel
ULS (EPA) Diesel
AANVZ00
-9.80–-9.70
CARB Diesel
AANWA00
-8.80–-8.70
Swaps
AAKYR00
-4.05–-3.95
CARBOB paper 1st month
CARBOB paper 2nd month
AAKYS00
12.95–13.05
PUAWR00
180 CST
380 CST
PUAWX00
Change
Waterborne ($/mt)
409.95–410.05
357.45–357.55
-1.650
-1.650
-1.650
-1.650
+2.800
+4.300
+4.300
-9.750 -2.750
-8.000 -9.750 -8.750 0.000
+1.500
+1.500
-4.000 13.000 -2.000
-1.350
410.000 357.500 +0.500
+0.500
San Francisco
AAUHARV13.5
PGABGRV13.5
AAKYJRV12.50
AAKYLRV12.50
(PGA page 158)
PGADG00
Unleaded 84
PGABO00
Unleaded 88.5
AAKYN00
CARBOB
AAKYP00
CARBOB Prem
PJABC00
Jet
ULS (EPA) Diesel
POAEY00
CARB Diesel
POAAL00
Pipeline (¢/gal)
153.91–154.01
173.91–174.01
154.91–155.01
162.91–163.01
200.30–200.40
198.30–198.40
199.30–199.40
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
153.960
173.960
154.960
162.960
200.350
198.350
199.350
6
-1.900
-1.900
-1.900
-1.900
+2.800
+2.800
+2.800
PGADGRV14.0
PGABORV14.0
AAKYNRV14.00
AAKYPRV14.00
US Marketscan
■■Offers: Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, KOCH offers
-$0.3325 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69,
NOBLEA offers -$0.3175 for 25; Platts Distillates
77 USGC C69, BPP offers -$0.3100 for 25; Platts
Distillates 77 USGC C69, PHCO offers -$0.3050
for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, VIT offers
-$0.2800 for 25.
■■Platts Distillates 77 USGC C70, VIT bids -$0.3475
for 25.
USGC Gasoil exclusions: (PGA page 454)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
December 9, 2014
West Coast
San Francisco
Code
Mid
Change
(PGA page 158)
PUBDA00
180 CST
380 CST
PUBCY00
Waterborne ($/mt)
465.95–466.05
425.95–426.05
466.000 426.000 +0.500
+0.500
Seattle
(PGA page 158)
Pipeline (¢/gal)
AAXJE00151.26–151.36
Unleaded 84
AAXJF00171.26–171.36
Unleaded 90
PJABB00200.30–200.40
Jet
ULS (EPA) Diesel
AAUEX00199.15–199.25
151.310
171.310
200.350
199.200
+0.100
+0.100
+2.800
+1.300
December 9 assessment process.
USAC Gasoil exclusions: (PGA page 444)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
US Jet Fuel
Market analysis: (PGA page 498) The jet fuel differential for
the Gulf Coast, where half the US product is made, plunged
5.75 cents on a scheduling day with few sales outlets,
pulling the outright price to a more than five-year low. Platts
assessed benchmark Gulf Coast jet at NYMEX January
ULSD futures minus 20.25 cents/gal, on a deadline day
to schedule barrels for Colonial Pipeline movement. Such
scheduling days tend to intensify movements, especially in
December with extra selling for year-end tax reasons. The
flat price dropped to $1.881/gal, the lowest level since
October 9, 2009, when it was $1.8712/gal. Gulf Coast jet
fuel has slipped by nearly one-third from the 2014 average
of $2.7578/gal, and has fallen more than $1 since August
29 when it was $2.8827/gal. “Airlines must absolutely
be loving this,” one jet trader said. “We saw that outright
GC price fall below $2 for the first time I can remember
on Friday, and it’s just kept dropping this week.” “The
whole complex is in the toilet,” a second market source
AAXJERV15.0
AAXJFRV15.0
Waterborne ($/mt)
PUAWT00479.45–479.55 479.500 -10.000
180 CST
380 CST
PUAWZ00414.45–414.55 414.500 -10.000
Portland
USAC Gasoil bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 444)
■■No bids, offers or trades were reported in the
CodeRVP
(PGA page 158)
Pipeline(¢/gal)
AAXJC00
152.41–152.51
Unleaded 84
AAXJD00
172.41–172.51
Unleaded 90
AAUEY00
200.30–200.40
ULS (EPA) Diesel
152.460 172.460 200.350 +0.100
+0.100
+1.300
PUAWV00
180 CST
380 CST
PUAXB00
538.000 503.000 +0.500
+0.500
Waterborne ($/mt)
537.95–538.05
502.95–503.05
Phoenix
AAXJCRV15.0
AAXJDRV15.0
(PGA page 158)
AADDP00
AZRBOB 84
PPXDJ00
AZRBOB 88.5
Pipeline (¢/gal)
163.91–164.01
171.91–172.01
163.960 171.960 +1.100
+1.100
West Coast Waterborne
AADDPRV8.00
PPXDJRV8.00
(PGA page 158)
PGADI00
Unleaded 87
Jet
PJABI00
Waterborne (¢/gal)
160.66–160.76
199.30–199.40
($/barrel)
PUAGD00
59.29–59.31
Fuel oil 0.5% S
Fuel oil 1.0% S
PUAAQ00
58.79–58.81
Fuel oil 2.0% S
AABGP00
56.29–56.31
said. “It’s just supply is exceeding demand, at least in the
Gulf.” New York barges slipped 1.25 cents to plus 0.75
cents/gal, but the so-called “up-down” from the Gulf Coast
widened to 21 cents, more than four times the cost of
shipping along Colonial Pipeline from Houston to New York
Harbor. The pipeline, however, has been fully allocated for
more than three years, and is especially tight in the winter
when demand grows sharply for heating oil and ULSD,
other products that share space on the 1.16 million b/d
distillates line. The same story holds true for shipping it up
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
160.710 199.350 -1.650
+2.800
59.300 58.800 56.300 +0.080
+0.080
+0.080
north, with Group 3 out of Oklahoma 75 points higher to
plus 4 cents/gal, and Chicago jet unchanged at plus 20.25
cents/gal. Traders said pipelines such as Explorer Pipeline
from the Gulf Coast to Chicago, are mostly allocated,
making it hard to ship fresh barrels north. The second
source noted that the Gulf Coast is lacking good pipeline
outlets at a time when production is typically strong to
handle the busy holiday air travel season. Instead, he said,
“The Gulf is just tanking today. They’re getting way more
than they can handle.” Exports are a typical means to
7
US Marketscan
relieve the pressure, and demand has been as strong, with
Peru the latest to tender a cargo. But freight costs have
spiked and stymied any rally in the cargo market. “The
market has definitely peaked for freight,” a shipping source
said. Storage remains a key option as the steep fall — the
largest since a 5.80-cent drop February 19 — created a
contango market that more than makes up for the cost of
storing barrels to sell later at a higher price. But traders
may have a stronger disincentive to put barrels in storage
at the end of the year when the tax bill is tallied.
Jet Kero 54 USGC Prompt Pipeline assessment
rationale: (PGA page 484) US Gulf Coast jet fuel for
Colonial Pipeline was assessed Tuesday at NYMEX
January ULSD futures minus 20.25 cents/gal, based
on five final deals totaling 125,000 barrels at that level
before 3:15 pm EST by a variety of buyers and sellers.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PJABO00
Jet Kero Los Angeles CA Pipeline assessment rationale:
(PGA page 489) Los Angeles jet fuel was assessed
Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 8 cent/
gal, based on a deal heard done before 3:15 pm EST.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PJAAP00
Jet Kero New York Harbor Barge assessment rationale:
(PGA page 492) New York jet fuel barges were assessed
Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures plus 0.75
cent/gal, based on an offer by Delta Air Lines to sell
25,000 Buckeye Pipeline barrels at plus 1 cent/gal, with
Buckeye barrels marked flat to barges.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PJAAW00
Jet Index
(PGA page 115)
Index ¢/gal
PJNAM00 220.98 PJNAM07197.91
North America
Latin America & Caribbean PJLAC00 231.88 PJLAC07199.30
PJGLO00 226.96 PJGLO07197.68
Global
December 9, 2014
Caribbean
Cargoes
Code
Mid Change
Code
MidChange
(PGA page 162)
Cargoes ($/mt)
Naphtha
PAAAB00514.54–514.61 514.575
+14.340
PAAAB10
Jet kerosene
PJAAD00
644.51–644.57
644.540 -9.885
PJAAD10
Gasoil
POAAU00
579.16–579.23
579.195 +22.265
POAAU10
($/barrel)
Fuel oil 2% S
PUAAS00
50.89–50.91
Fuel oil 2.8% S
PUAAV00
45.89–45.91
(¢/gal)
145.35–145.37
145.360 +4.050
192.39–192.41
192.400 -2.950
189.89–189.91
189.900 +7.300
50.900 +0.070
45.900 +0.070
European Products
Mediterranean cargoes
Code
Mid Change
Code
MidChange
(PGA page 1114)
FOB Med (Italy) ($/mt)
CIF Med (Genova/Lavera)
Naphtha*
PAAAI00480.00–480.50 480.250
+5.500
PAAAH00500.75–501.25501.000
+5.500
Prem Unl 10ppm
AAWZA00607.25–607.75 607.500
+4.000
AAWZB00623.25–623.75623.500
+4.000
Jet aviation fuel
AAIDL00639.25–639.75 639.500
+3.750
Gasoil 0.1%
AAVJI00586.75–587.25 587.000
+2.500
AAVJJ00608.25–608.75608.500
+2.500
1%
PUAAK00350.50–351.00 350.750
+0.750
PUAAJ00365.75–366.25366.000
+1.250
3.5%
PUAAZ00332.75–333.25 333.000
+3.250
PUAAY00348.00–348.50348.250
+3.750
*Naphtha FOB Med is basis East Med
Northwest Europe cargoes
(PGA page 1110)
FOB NWE ($/mt)
CIF basis ARA
Naphtha swap
PAAAJ00520.50–521.00520.750
+2.250
Naphtha Phy
PAAAL00516.50–517.00516.750
+5.500
Gasoline 10ppm
AAXFQ00604.75–605.25605.000
+4.500
Jet
PJAAV00655.00–655.50 655.250
+4.000
PJAAU00670.50–671.00670.750
+3.750
Ultra low sulfur diesel 10ppm
AAWZD00602.00–602.50 670.750
+3.500
AAWZC00622.75–623.25623.000
+3.250
Diesel 10ppm NWE
AAVBF00599.00–599.50 599.250
+3.750
AAVBG00619.00–619.50619.250
+3.250
Diesel 10 ppm UK
AAVBH00625.00–625.50625.250
+3.250
Gasoil 0.1%
AAYWR00587.25–587.75 587.500
+3.000
AAYWS00609.50–610.00609.750
+2.500
1%
PUAAM00345.75–346.25 346.000
+1.250
PUAAL00357.00–357.50357.250
+1.250
3.5%
PUABB00321.25–321.75 321.500
+4.250
PUABA00334.50–335.00334.750
+4.250
0.509.7% straight run
PKABA00407.00–408.00 407.500
+7.000
Low sulfur VGO
AAHMX00454.50–455.50 455.000
+7.500
AAHMZ00462.50–463.50463.000
+7.500
High sulfur VGO
AAHNB00445.50–446.50 446.000
+7.000
AAHND00453.50–454.50454.000
+7.000
Northwest Europe barges
(PGA page 1112)
FOB Rotterdam ($/mt)
Naphtha Phy
PAAAM00512.50–513.00
Eurobob Gasoline
AAQZV00587.75–588.25
Unleaded 98
AAKOD00652.75–653.25
Premium Unleaded
PGABM00606.75–607.25
Reformate
AAXPM00
MTBE
PHALA00805.75–806.25
Jet
PJABA00664.75–665.25
Gasoil 0.1%
AAYWT00601.75–602.25
10 ppm
AAJUS00620.00–620.50
1%
PUAAP00347.75–348.25
3.5%
PUABC00340.50–341.00
Fuel Oil 3.5% 500 CST
PUAGN00328.50–329.00
Low sulfur VGO
AAHNF00458.00–459.00
High sulfur VGO
AAHNI00445.50–446.50
R’dam Bunker 380 CST
PUAYW00344.00–345.00
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
512.750
+5.500
588.000
+4.500
653.000
+4.500
607.000
+8.250
628.000
+4.500
806.000
+21.000
665.000
+4.000
602.000
+3.500
620.250
+6.000
348.000
+1.750
340.750
+4.250
328.750
+4.250
458.500
+11.000
446.000
+7.000
344.500
+1.000
8
US Marketscan
USGC Jet bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 485)
■■DEALS: 54 USGC C69, STUS SELLS TO TAG Jan
$-0.2000 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, STUS SELLS TO
TAG Jan $-0.2000 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, EPSLN
SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.2025 for 25kb; 54 USGC
C69, STUS SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.2025 for
25kb; 54 USGC C69, VALERO SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan
$-0.2025 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, EPSLN SELLS TO
NOBLEA Jan $-0.2025 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, STUS
SELLS TO MS Jan $-0.2200 for 25kb.
■■POSITIONS: BIDS: 54 USGC C69, TAG no longer bid;
54 USGC C69, NOBLEA no longer bid; 54 USGC C69,
MS no longer bid.
■■POSITIONS: OFFERS: 54 USGC C69, VALERO offers
Jan $-0.1850 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, STUS offers
Jan $-0.1825 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, MS offers Jan
$-0.1550 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, NOBLEA offers Jan
$-0.1500 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, PHCO no longer
offer; 54 USGC C69, STUS no longer offer.
USGC Jet exclusions: (PGA page 485)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
USWC Jet bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 490)
■■There were no bids, offers, or trades today, December
9.
USWC Jet exclusions: (PGA page 490)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
Platts Podcast
Russian oil exports tumble ahead
of 2015 tax changes
Platts editors discuss the upcoming changes to the Russian
oil export tax scheme and their impact on both crude and
product exports, the spot market and other effects.
http://plts.co/russia-urals-crude-112614
December 9, 2014
European Products
ICE gasoil GWAVE
Code
MidChange
(PGA page 702)
MidDate
Dec PXAAJ00605.50 08Dec14
Jan PXAAK00604.50 08Dec14
Euro denominated assessments at London MOC Close
(PGA page 1116, 1118, 1350 & 1450)
CIF NWE cargoes (€/mt)
Nap Phy
AAQCE00416.03–416.43 416.230
+0.512
Jet
AAQCF00540.07–540.48 540.274-2.091
FOB NWE cargoes
1%
AAQCG00278.49–278.90 278.695-1.635
FOB Rotterdam barge
Prem Unl
AAQCH00488.72–489.13 488.925
+2.057
Reformate
AAXPN00 505.840
-1.153
10 ppm
AAQCI00499.40–499.80 499.597
+0.126
Gasoil 0.1%
AAYWY00484.70–485.10 484.897-1.767
3.5%
AAQCK00274.27–274.67 274.466
+0.844
Fuel Oil 3.5% 500 CST
PUAGO00264.60–265.00 264.801
+0.937
NY harbor cargoes (€ cents/gal)
Unleaded 87
AAPYV00144.27–144.35 144.309-1.414
Unleaded 89
AAPYW00154.02–154.10 154.056-1.189
Unleaded 93
AAPYX00168.63–168.71 168.667-0.865
No. 2
AAPYY00153.34–153.42 153.379-0.914
Futures Settlements
Settlement
Change
Low
High
Volume
Open interest
PNT***
NYMEX Light Sweet crude ($/barrel)
(PGA page 705)
Jan 15
NMCL001
63.82 +0.77
62.25 64.20 330077
251100
Feb 15
NMCL002
63.98 +0.77
62.41 64.35 105562
171133
Mar 15
NMCL003
64.15 +0.77
62.61 64.56 58405 146074
Apr 15
NMCL004
64.34 +0.75
62.89 64.75 28624 46767
Total
NMCL000701564XNCLP0026151
ICE Brent ($/barrel)
(PGA page 704)
Jan 15
ICLL001
66.84 +0.65
65.29 67.04 210525
196587
Feb 15
ICLL002
67.22 +0.58
65.73 67.41 151090
273334
Mar 15
ICLL003
67.88 +0.54
66.41 68.04 81430 211006
Apr 15
ICLL004
68.53 +0.50
67.11 68.70 27185 71690
Total
ICLL000625476XILLP0023438
ICE Brent NX ($/barrel)
(PGA page 704)
Feb 15
ICBN001
67.35
+0.58
67.35
67.35
0
0
Mar 15
ICBN002
68.01
+0.54
68.01
68.01
0
0
Apr 15
ICBN003
68.72
+0.49
68.72
68.72
0
0
May 15
ICBN004
69.37
+0.45
69.37
69.37
0
0
Total
ICBN000 0
ICE WTI ($/barrel)
(PGA page 704)
Jan 15
ICIC001
63.82 +0.77
62.33 64.17 63871 62805
Feb 15
ICIC002
63.98 +0.77
62.52 64.32 37218 44350
Mar 15
ICIC003
64.15 +0.77
62.83 64.52 14920 49414
Apr 15
ICIC004
64.34 +0.75
63.03 64.55 4861 11093
Total
ICIC000157845XIICP0011341
ICE Middle East Sour crude ($/barrel)
(PGA page 704)
Feb 15
ICOQ001
65.15 +0.58
65.15 65.15 0
0
Mar 15
ICOQ002
66.25 +0.58
66.25 66.25 0
0
Apr 15
ICOQ003
66.93 +0.58
66.93 66.93 0
0
May 15
ICOQ004
67.62 +0.58
67.62 67.62 0
0
Total Volume
ICOQ000
0
XIOQP00
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
9
US Marketscan
USAC Jet bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 493)
■■DEALS: No deals
■■POSITIONS: BIDS: No bids
■■POSITIONS: OFFERS: Jet USAC BPL FE, DELTAAL offers
Jan $0.0225 for 25kb; Jet USAC BPL MW, DELTAAL
offers Jan $0.0100 for 25kb; Jet USAC BPL MW, PHCO
offers Jan $0.0300 for 25kb.
USAC Jet exclusions: (PGA page 493)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
US Diesel
Market analysis: (PGA page 499) The Chicago ULSD
differential tumbled 4 cents/gal Tuesday as supply in
the region has been replenished with barrels coming
from the US Gulf Coast and refinery production
returning near normal rates. Platts assessed the
Chicago ULSD differential at NYMEX January ULSD
futures minus 9 cents/gal. This is the lowest Chicago
ULSD has been since it was minus 15.25 cents/
gal on January 24. Traders said supply in the region
has returned following fall turnarounds and barrels
coming from the US Gulf Coast. Midwest stocks for
the week ended November 28 shot up 1.771 million
barrels to 22.892 million barrels while production
catapulted 93,000 b/d to 1.151 million b/d, according
to US Energy Information Administration data released
Wednesday. Group 3 ULSD fell 1.65 cents/gal to minus
11.20 cents/gal, down 1.65 cents/gal. The Gulf Coast
ULSD differential dipped 20 points/gal to minus 17.75
cents/gal, the lowest level ever. Gulf Coast ULSD
typically drops on end-of-year tax selling. However,
when that happens, barrels typically make their way to
Europe. Without the demand from Europe this winter,
the differential has plummeted. In New York Harbor,
the ULSD differential rallied 3 cents/gal to plus 5.50
cents/gal following stronger ultra low sulfur heating oil
demand. ULSHO and ULSD are the same specification
and the only difference is designated use. Therefore
when ULSHO demand kicks up due to seasonality,
December 9, 2014
Futures Settlements
Settlement
Change
Low
High
Volume
Open interest
PNT***
ICE BWAVE ($/barrel)
(PGA page 704)
Jan 15
XIBW00166.89
Feb 15
XIBW00267.40
DME Oman crude ($/barrel)
(PGA page 2710)
Feb 15
XDOA001
63.64 -2.36
1876
Feb 15
DMOQ001
64.88
+0.18
63.52 64.88 2628 5746
Mar 15
DMOQ002
65.68
+0.18
65.01 65.82 124 5
Apr 15
DMOQ003
66.36
+0.18
66.36 66.36 104 5
May 15
DMOQ004
67.05
+0.18
67.05 67.05 300 300
Total Volume
DMOQ000
7256 XDOQP003400
NYMEX NY ULSD ($/gal)
(PGA page 705)
Jan 15
NMHO001
2.0840
+0.0291
2.0365
2.0849
70373 93344
Feb 15
NMHO002
2.0631
+0.0219
2.0215
2.0647
35973 61974
Mar 15
NMHO003
2.0476
+0.0178
2.0105
2.0495
26241 55356
Apr 15
NMHO004
2.0312
+0.0133
1.9975
2.0345
13246 33975
Total
NMHO000170889XNHOP0015051
NYMEX RBOB unleaded gasoline ($/gal)
(PGA page 705)
Jan 15
NMRB001
1.7236
+0.0170
1.6906
1.7325
64279 101376
Feb 15
NMRB002
1.7360
+0.0164
1.7032
1.7430
29920 54369
Mar 15
NMRB003
1.7570
+0.0159
1.7269
1.7630
16835 44641
Apr 15
NMRB004
1.9573
+0.0132
1.9264
1.9628
8907 35601
Total Volume
NMRB000144140XNRBP0011172
NYMEX Natural Gas ($/MMBtu)
(PGA page 705)
Jan 15
NMNG001
3.652 +0.057
3.608 3.709 159077
204666
Feb 15
NMNG002
3.681 +0.058
3.634 3.734 51060 118639
Mar 15
NMNG003
3.640 +0.061
3.588 3.690 62333 148802
Apr 15
NMNG004
3.444 +0.043
3.401 3.470 42871 100398
Total Volume
NMNG000362201XNNGP0014770
ICE gasoil ($/mt)
(PGA page 704)
Dec 14
ICLO001
604.00
+2.50
593.25
605.50
36284 34875
Jan 15
ICLO002
604.00
+2.75
593.00
605.75
76368 111821
Feb 15
ICLO003
616.50
+1.75
606.25
618.00
27319 79049
Mar 15
ICLO004
619.00
+1.75
609.00
620.50
8703 32999
Total Volume
ICLO000175191XILOP003995
ICE low sulfur gasoil ($/mt)
(PGA page 704)
Dec 14
ICLS001
617.00
+3.75
609.75
618.75
876 4168
Jan 15
ICLS002
615.00
+3.00
607.00
616.25
1863 15252
Total Volume
ICLS000
2739 XILSP000
*Volume, open interest and PNT reflect prior trading day. PNT reflect volume for Privately Negotiated Trades or off-exchange. **Oman settlements are Post Close settlements. ***Privately Negotiated Trade values found on PGA page 710.
US MARKETSCAN
Volume 40 / Issue 236 / December 9, 2014
Editorial: Richard Swann, Editorial Director, Americas Oil: +1-713-658-3273, Matt Cook, Senior Managing Editor, Americas Clean Products +1-713-658-3208
Client services information: North America: +1 800-PLATTS8 (+1-800-752-8878); direct: +1-212-904-3070 Europe & Middle East: +44-20-7176-6111
Asian Pacific: +65-6530-6430 Latin America: +54-11-4121-4810, E-mail: [email protected]
Copyright © 2014 McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be photocopied, reproduced, retransmitted, put into a computer system
or otherwise redistributed without prior written authorization from Platts. Platts is a trademark of McGraw Hill Financial. Information has been obtained from sources
believed reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by sources, McGraw Hill Financial or others, McGraw Hill Financial does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any such information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from use of such information. See back of publication invoice for complete terms and conditions.
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
10
US Marketscan
ULSHO follows. At 3:15 pm EST Platts assessed the
NYMEX January ULSD futures contract at $2.0835/gal,
up 2.8 cents/gal.
ULSD USGC Prompt Pipeline assessment rationale:
(PGA page 456) Gulf Coast ULSD was assessed Tuesday
at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 17.75 cents/
gal, based on one trade at that level, with ATMI selling to
Vitol at minus 17.75 cents/gal.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: AATGY00
ULSD FOB Chicago Pipe assessment rationale: (PGA
page 463) Chicago ULSD was assessed Tuesday at
NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 9 cents/gal, based
on market talk.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: AATHA00
ULSD Group 3 Pipeline assessment rationale: (PGA page
463) Group 3’s X-grade ULSD was assessed Tuesday at
NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 11.20 cents/gal,
based on six trades that level and a bid left at minus
11.25 cents/gal from Noble.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: AATHB00
December 9, 2014
Five-Day Rolling Averages*
*Five Days ending December 9
Naphtha
$/mt¢/gal
US Gulf W
531.26**531.62
149.65—149.75
US Gulf FOB LSR Parcel
531.93 132.65
US Gulf FOB cargo
530.94 **531.04 151.65 —151.75
Carib Cargo
514.69—514.76
141.79**141.81
Jet Kerosene
US Gulf Water
US Gulf Pipe
Carib Cargo
NY Cargo
LA Pipeline
Group 3
Chicago
$/MT
¢/gal
658.55**658.88
198.36—198.46
652.74**653.07
196.61—196.71
673.18—673.24
208.41**208.43
699.73**700.06
212.04—212.14
644.82**645.14
202.14—202.24
700.31**700.65
210.94—211.04
763.06**763.39229.84—229.94
Low Sulfur Resid Fuel Oil
$/barrel
NY Cargo .3% HP
74.72—74.74
NY Cargo .3% LP
76.30—76.32
NY Cargo .7% Max
60.43—60.45
NY Cargo 1% Max 56.93—56.95
US Gulf 1%
58.97—58.99
$/mt
500.65**500.78
511.24**511.37
392.78**392.91
370.03**370.16
372.70**372.83
Hi Sulfur Resid Fuel Oil
NY Cargo 2.2%
NY Cargo 3.0%
US Gulf 3%
Carib 2.0%
Carib 2.8%
$/barrel
56.02—56.04
55.87—55.89
54.12—54.14
52.55—52.57
47.55—47.57
$/mt
358.54**358.67
357.58**357.71
346.38**346.51
336.31**336.44
304.31**304.44
Crude Oil, FOB Source
West Texas Int
NYMEX Crude
$/barrel
65.29—65.31
65.99
Crude Oil, FOB Source
$/barrel
Mars64.09—64.11
WTI Posting Plus
3.21 —3.23
Gasoil/Heating Oil
L.A. LS Diesel
S.F. LS Diesel
NY Cargo
NY Barge
US Gulf Water
US Gulf Pipe
Group 3
Carib Cargo
NYMEX NO. 2
$/barrel
84.02**84.06
84.04**84.08
¢/gal
200.04—200.14
200.09—200.19
$/mt 606.02**606.34
609.17**609.49
577.46**577.77
541.12**541.43
553.35**554.40
580.50—580.56
665.80 ¢/gal
192.39—192.49
193.39—193.49
187.49—187.59
175.69—175.79
179.66—180.00
186.66**186.68
211.36
Gasoline, US Market Unleaded
Premium
NY Cargo
183.60—183.70
213.85—213.95
NY Barge
182.61—182.71
212.86—212.96
US Gulf Water
163.05—163.15
183.70—183.80
US Gulf Pipe
161.11—161.21
181.76—181.86
Group 3
197.66—197.76
LA Pipeline
188.76—188.86
SF Pipeline
162.01—162.11
182.01—182.11
Chicago
163.36—163.46212.36—212.46
NYMEX Unl
177.87 Conversions either side of asterisks
ULSD New York Harbor Barge assessment rationale:
(PGA page 477) New York Harbor barge ULSD was
assessed Tuesday flat at NYMEX January ULSD futures
plus 5.50 cents/gal, based on market talk.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: AATGX00
USGC Diesel bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 457)
■■DEALS: 62 USGC C69, ATMI SELLS TO VIT Jan
$-0.1775 for 25kb.
■■POSITIONS: BIDS: 62 USGC C69, APEXINC bids Jan
$-0.1800 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, MS bids Jan
$-0.1815 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, NOBLEA bids
Jan $-0.1825 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, MS bids
Jan $-0.1825for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, GLT bids Jan
Platts US Renewable Volume Obligation – Calculated Values
(PBF page 302)
¢/gal
%/gal
Advanced
Change Biodiesel Ethanol BiofuelCellulosic
2013 RVO (Jan 1, 2014 – Jan 31, 2015)
RVOY013
5.3056 +0.1048
0.9100 8.0200 0.3000 0.0060
2014 RVO (Jan 1, 2014 – Jan 31, 2016)
RVOY014
5.7369 +0.1071
1.1300 8.1200 0.4860 0.0040
RVOs are Renewable Volume Obligation values. RVO is the aggregate cost of the Renewable Identification Number percentages per gallon of transportation fuel for biodiesel, ethanol, advanced biofuel, and cellulosic ethanol as mandated by US Environmental Protection Agency in Renewable Fuel Standard Program (RFS2). Platts calculates
these RVO values factoring the value of biodiesel, ethanol, advanced biofuel and cellulosic biofuel RIN credits as assessed by Platts for the respective RVO years; RINs are
assessed as cents/RIN.
Platts will make these RVO calculations available in US Marketscan for only a limited period of time. Platts reserves the right to remove the RVO calculations from US
Marketscan at any time without notice. However, you may access the RVO calculations by acquiring a license to Platts Biofuelscan or Platts Biofuels Alert. For any related
questions, please contact [email protected]
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
11
US Marketscan
$-0.1835 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, KOCH bids Jan
$-0.1840 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, HETCO bids Jan
$-0.1850 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, BPP bids Jan
$-0.1875 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, TAG bids Jan
$-0.1875 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, GEWAR bids Jan
$-0.1875 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, MS bids Jan
$-0.1875 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, TAG bids Jan
$-0.1900 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, ASTR bids Jan
$-0.2000 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, VIT no longer bids.
■■POSITIONS: OFFERS: 62 USGC C69, PHCO offers Jan
$-0.1750 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, TAG offers Jan
$-0.1750 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, BPP offers Jan
$-0.1725 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, ATMI offers Jan
$-0.1725 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, TAG offers Jan
$-0.1700 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, BPP offers Jan
$-0.1700 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, TAG offers Jan
$-0.1675 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, NOBLEA offers
Jan $-0.1650 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, KOCH offers
Jan $-0.1600 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, GLT offers
Jan $-0.1575 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, MS offers
Jan $-0.1550 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, ATMI offers
Jan $-0.1550 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, MS offers
Jan $-0.1475 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, VIT offers Jan
$-0.1400 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, ASTR offers Jan
$-0.1050 for 25kb.
USGC Diesel exclusions: (PGA page 457)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
Group 3 Diesel bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 464)
■■DEALS: X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, KOCH SELLS TO
NOBLEA Jan $-0.1125 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC
10, APEXINC SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.1125 for
10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, KOCH SELLS TO USO
Jan $-0.1100 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, CHSI
SELLS TO USO Jan $-0.1100 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3
DEC 10, VALERO SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.1125 for
10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, TAG SELLS TO NOBLEA
Jan $-0.1125 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10,
VALERO SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.1125 for 10kb; X
Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, KOCH SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan
December 9, 2014
US Wholesale Posted Prices
PADD 1
Albany, NY
Allentown, PA
Atlanta
Baltimore (a)
Binghamton, NY
Boston (a)
Charleston, SC
Charlotte
Fairfax (a)
Greensboro
Miami
New Haven (a)
New York City (a)
Newark, NJ (a)
Norfolk (a)
Orlando
Philadelphia (a)
Pittsburgh
Providence
Portland,ME
Raleigh
Richmond
Savannah
Spartanburg
Tampa
Unleaded
Midgrade
Premium
Kerosene
Diesel No.2
Low Sulfur Diesel
ULSD
180.20-193.55
179.69-186.10
181.15-202.26
188.52-207.28
186.75-199.68
178.37-184.97
190.90-191.00
169.10-177.41
178.05-197.63
178.10-182.39
178.05-202.60
177.25-184.40
176.60-177.25
175.70-182.20
188.10-203.35
178.90-211.57
175.25-193.17
180.10-191.66
179.55-191.85
185.00-185.49
177.75-182.31
184.40-204.84
199.95-205.00
171.60-178.69
175.55-208.05
191.00-206.42
191.72-205.55
193.40-219.40
203.34-222.59
196.75-212.99
189.50-197.50
205.90-206.00
185.63-194.67
191.21-216.30
192.23-199.68
190.30-216.67
188.15-200.15
187.33-189.25
186.65-199.70
201.10-218.20
192.23-227.67
187.25-208.75
192.10-209.20
190.45-203.85
197.27-198.65
195.75-197.31
194.10-217.84
214.95-220.00
184.60-196.52
189.55-221.66
211.00-225.23
217.05-235.61
220.15-252.35
225.62-255.43
212.51-233.34
209.75-220.90
230.90-247.30
205.80-222.34
194.51-245.12
215.15-228.85
215.05-252.90
208.05-224.70
207.79-210.25
206.45-234.04
225.10-253.17
218.90-262.12
209.12-234.15
215.10-241.50
210.10-227.70
207.69-211.60
220.75-226.31
223.50-250.77
244.95-250.00
212.85-236.12
216.35-257.90
248.00-274.95 198.99-200.64 289.80-289.80 269.00-270.50 197.34-207.57 269.25-269.25 265.00-265.00 220.96-228.45
282.20-282.20 271.36-271.36 196.05-201.20 283.14-283.14 203.50-221.50 199.60-199.60 270.00-270.00 216.02-223.15
212.57-220.88
200.10-214.60
205.60-220.00
216.87-226.75
216.62-221.24
211.38-232.45
204.54-213.00
201.85-214.22
206.75-212.60
216.00-220.54
223.74-227.22
210.55-220.28
199.72-215.30
226.60-229.58
213.28-225.20
219.04-232.20
217.45-220.62
222.50-222.50
206.14-207.75
203.15-223.25
221.00-221.00
199.15-212.60
216.98-237.40
171.24-176.70
169.55-180.74
167.15-179.60
175.50-179.00
187.55-195.67
167.35-171.37
171.27-175.00
164.00-180.95
169.85-180.75
165.25-181.27
173.08-186.90
172.95-192.10
162.02-175.53
166.85-179.95
172.00-178.25
168.50-178.57
161.20-176.50
163.00-173.27
163.25-175.86
174.00-176.42
184.98-192.25
182.98-196.40
194.95-198.00
206.35-215.06
179.35-199.82
183.15-188.59
173.50-196.16
181.85-197.60
174.75-197.53
190.58-192.08
192.30-204.10
175.85-190.49
183.68-202.51
186.00-197.25
180.09-196.17
175.95-198.25
172.50-191.41
161.37-195.86
194.00-201.02
195.99-214.76
201.98-233.80
209.65-236.95
233.95-239.68
229.35-244.55
202.35-228.30
186.73-203.94
193.44-222.16
204.85-235.60
191.25-216.50
223.08-229.68
226.20-241.58
200.86-227.26
208.95-230.31
213.50-222.00
196.45-217.70
185.72-206.50
186.33-203.47
166.82-204.08
232.00/242.42
301.80-301.80 307.30-307.30 307.30-307.30 317.80-317.80 315.80-315.80 308.80-308.80 298.80-298.80 314.80-314.80 298.00-299.00 208.71-223.66
210.00-213.18
201.73-228.90
204.70-214.75
219.35-228.90
225.84-233.50
231.15-233.29
203.75-216.05
235.36-247.90
218.25-231.93
220.25-229.00
212.30-246.75
202.57-207.18
202.08-231.40
218.25-225.00
211.22-230.42
199.60-205.05
204.88-210.37
204.75-213.08
210.97-217.34
PADD 2
Aberdeen
Cape Girardeau
Chattanooga
Chicago (a)
Cleveland
Columbus
Duluth
Des Moines
Detroit
Fargo
Green Bay
Indianapolis
Kansas City, KS
Knoxville
Milwaukee
Minneapolis/St.Paul
Oklahoma City
Omaha
Sioux Falls
St.Louis
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
12
US Marketscan
$-0.1125 for 10kb.
■■POSITIONS: BIDS: X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, NOBLEA
bids Jan $-0.1125 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10,
KOCH bids Jan $-0.1200 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3
DEC 10, VIT bids Jan $-0.1275 for 20kb; X Grade GRP
3 DEC 10, USO no longer bids
■■POSITIONS: OFFERS: X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, APEXINC
offers Jan $-0.1075 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10,
KOCH offers Jan $-0.0900 for 10kb;
Group 3 Diesel exclusions: (PGA page 464)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
Chicago Diesel bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 465)
■■There were no bids, offers, or trades today, December 9.
Chicago Diesel exclusions: (PGA page 465)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
USAC Diesel bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 478)
■■There were no bids, offers, or trades today, December 9.
USAC Diesel exclusions: (PGA page 478)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
US Residual Oil
Market analysis: (PGA page 599) US fuel oil prices were
mixed on Tuesday as a modest uptick in crude oil
futures was countered by prevailing weakness in fuel
oil markets. Front-month Brent crude oil futures were
assessed 49 cents/b higher at $66.75/b, marking
the first rise since jumping $1.05/b to $80.29/b on
November 21. Fuel oil swaps saw a comparatively
moderate rise, with the Gulf Coast 3%S fuel oil balancemonth swap rising 15 cents/b to $52.70/b and the
Atlantic Coast 1%S fuel oil balance-month swap climbing
25 cents/b to $55.10/b. Gulf Coast 3%S physical fuel
oil was assessed 12 cents/b higher at $52.55/b based
December 9, 2014
US Wholesale Posted Prices
Unleaded
Midgrade
Premium
Kerosene
Diesel No.2
Low Sulfur Diesel
ULSD
PADD 3
Albuquerque
166.80-178.50 179.50-207.35 191.50-217.35 Amarillo
162.25-163.85 176.75-176.75 195.25-195.25 Baton Rouge
158.60-171.80 167.19-188.80 187.12-210.80 Birmingham
168.15-184.42 183.58-199.92 209.65-229.42 259.75-259.75 Corpus Christi
175.75-176.72 187.75-190.38 210.75-213.84 Dallas/Ft.Worth (a) 161.55-164.84 172.78-181.85 191.33-213.80 Houston (a)
160.00-167.31 167.83-185.31 180.35-214.31 240.10-240.10 Little Rock
169.33-185.11 181.02-203.11 196.46-220.11 New Orleans
161.99-163.47 169.08-186.99 181.51-216.95 San Antonio
162.40-168.50 176.00-181.96 202.40-214.65 222.50-237.00
214.15-232.85
190.95-200.60
197.37-213.55
201.48-202.70
200.00-246.25
192.84-212.86
209.00-212.14
190.75-194.15
209.45-214.68
PADD 4
Billings (b)
Casper (b)
Denver
Salt Lake City
169.29-178.20
153.50-153.50
148.75-178.38
158.90-169.50
198.64-204.93 185.18-185.18 243.79-257.00
154.94-193.38 177.46-208.38 166.82-179.50 178.70-189.50 241.56-244.43
210.62-232.30
217.40-217.50
156.50-160.50
168.00-192.75
170.50-196.00
172.00-198.00
154.00-176.75
157.00-164.75
155.15-159.75
169.50-187.75
167.50-171.50
179.00-204.75
182.50-210.50
197.00-210.50
168.00-199.25
166.00-174.75
167.15-172.25
180.00-196.66
197.00-200.65
199.00-222.75
200.00-210.00
201.50-232.00
197.50-213.25
192.75-301.00
198.50-207.50
226.90-226.90
PADD 5
Anacortes
Las Vegas (e)
Los Angeles(e)
Phoenix
Portland,OR
SanFran-EBay (e)
Seattle/Tacoma
Spokane
178.50-182.50
188.00-216.75
194.50-225.50
214.50-227.00
182.00-224.75
175.00-184.75
179.15-184.75
190.50-208.54
All prices are provided by DTN. Discounts or temporary allowances offered by individual companies are not included in posted prices. Prices are unbranded unless noted.
Prices are conventional gasoline unless noted. All prices in cts/gal. (a)=RFG. (b)=Branded postings (e)=CARB gasoline/No.2 oil.endfragment
Subscriber notes
(PGA page 1500)
In line with the introduction of new sulfur emissions
rules for vessels in the Emissions Control Area around
North America in 2015, Platts is proposing new assessments for an ECA-compliant, 0.1% sulfur bunker fuel,
with effect from Monday, January 5, 2015. From January
1, 2015, ships traveling within 200 miles of shore in
the ECA must limit sulfur emissions from fuel to 0.1%,
down from a current maximum of 1%, according to
International Maritime Organization rules. The regulations do not stipulate use of a specific fuel, which leaves
open the door for multiple means of compliance. Based
on extensive consultation with market participants,
Platts believes there exists the possibility for a new
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
market to develop for an ECA-compliant bunker fuel
that features aspects of residual fuel oils, which have
traditionally been a component of bunker fuel, and less
sulfur-intense distillate fuels. This likely new bunker fuel
has been described by many market participants as a
dirty gasoil. The proposed new assessments for this product would be assessed on an ex-wharf basis in Houston
and New York, and published in dollars per metric ton.
The proposed new assessment would reflect the following specifications:
Kinematic viscosity at 50 degrees C: Max 15 CST
Flash point: Minimum 60 degrees C
(continued on page 14)
13
US Marketscan
on bids, offers and deals across the Platts Market on
Close assessment process. Vitol bought at that level
from Valero in the mid-laycan and bid up to or above
that level in the front-laycan and back-end. Trafigura
subsequently offered down to $52.55/b across all
three laycans before withdrawing its offer toward the
end of the MOC process. Despite the relative weakness
— Tuesday’s increase came a day after the USGC fuel
oil benchmark slipped to its lowest mark since May
27, 2009 — Gulf Coast fuel oil prices continued to
strengthen compared with their equivalent in Singapore,
with the 10-day moving average discount closing to
$5.15/b from $6.47/b on November 26. One trader
said that some companies had held onto stocks of
heavy slurries in the hopes of sending barrels to
Singapore, but the narrowing discount had discouraged
arbitrage and limited the value of these slurries. Atlantic
Coast 1%S fuel oil continued to come under pressure
from Phillips 66 offers during the MOC process and
the low sulfur benchmark was ultimately assessed 14
cents/b lower at $55.25/b. Atlantic Coast 3%S fuel oil
was assessed 4 cents/b lower at $54.35/b based on
indications that the market appeared closer to the Gulf
Coast despite ongoing supply tightness.
FO No6 3.0%S USGC Waterborne assessment rationale:
(PGA page 590) Platts assessed US Gulf Coast 3%S fuel
oil at $52.55/barrel on Tuesday. The assessment was
based on Platts Market on Close assessment process
activity and the underlying USGC 3%S swaps market.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PUAFZ00
FO No.6 1.0% New York Harbor Delivered Cargo
assessment rationale: (PGA page 593) Platts assessed
US Atlantic Coast 1%S fuel oil at $55.25/barrel on
Tuesday. The assessment was based on Platts Market
on Close assessment process activity, movements in
Brent crude oil futures and the underlying USAC 1%S
fuel oil swaps market.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PUAAO00
December 9, 2014
Subscriber notes
(PGA page 1500)
Sulfur: Max 0.1%
Al+Si: Max 60 ppm
Ash: Max 0.1%
Cetane: Minimum 40
In addition to the above specifications, Platts is particularly interested in feedback on whether or not to include
a minimum viscosity; whether or not to specify maximum water content; whether or not to specify a pour
point for the fuel; and any other possible parameters
that should be included. This product is intended for use
in ships and should follow normal market conventions
around what is and is not acceptable in its makeup. The
assessment would reflect fuel loading on an ex-wharf
basis, three to seven days forward from the date of assessment. The minimum stem size would be 200 mt and the
maximum stem size would be 1,000 mt. Platts will continue to publish its current assessments for marine gasoil,
which is also ECA-compliant. Please send feedback by
December 17, 2014, to [email protected] and
[email protected] Please provide a clear indication
if comments are not intended for publication by Platts
for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments
received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.
Platts proposes to push back the cutoff time for providing
bids and offers for publication in the US Atlantic Coast
physical residual fuel oil Market on Close assessment
process to 1:45 pm Central Time, 15 minutes later than
the current cutoff time of 1:30 pm Central Time. Platts
proposes that this change take effect on January 2, 2015.
The proposed change follows a reduction in April 2014 in
the volume size assessed by Platts in the USAC market to
50,000 barrels from the previous 120,000 barrels. The current 1:30 pm CT cutoff for MOC positions was designed
to give market participants more time to react to bids and
offers and calculate the logistics involved in a potential
trade. The move to a smaller volume size has made this
additional time unnecessary, and will align the timings in
the USAC fuel oil market with those of other markets with
similar batch sizes. Please email comments and questions
by December 17, 2014, to [email protected]
with a cc to [email protected] Please provide a clear
indication if comments are not intended for publication
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as
confidential available upon request.
Platts confirms it will amend its publication schedule
for Friday, December 26, 2014 and not publish any oil
assessments from its offices in the US on that day in
observance of the Christmas holiday. Platts had proposed
waiting for feedback until December 3 prior to publishing a decision on this proposal. However, in response to
widespread feedback favoring a decision before the start
of the new trading month, Platts is publishing its decision before the start of December.Platts will maintain its
current publication schedule for Wednesday, December
24, 2014; Wednesday, December 31, 2014 and Friday,
January 2, 2015 on which days its assessment processes
will close early.All assessments and Market-on-Close processes will be basis 1:30 pm Eastern time on those days.
Please submit any comments to [email protected] and
[email protected] For full details of Platts publishing schedule and services affected, refer to http://www.
platts.com/holiday.
Platts is introducing an assessment for Ultra Low Sulfur
Diesel export cargoes loading at US Gulf Coast terminals
on an FOB basis, effective December 1, 2014, following a
period of industry feedback. The Platts FOB USGC Export
ULSD assessment will reflect EN590 quality diesel with a
typical standard clip size of 300,000 barrels and a typical
operational tolerance of plus/minus 10%. The assessment
will reflect cargoes loading seven to 21 days forward
from the date of publication, subject to industry standard terminal and vessel nomination procedures. Export
ULSD should be free of any biofuels. Loading locations
include terminals along the US Gulf Coast from Corpus
Christi, Texas, to Pascagoula, Mississippi, normalized to a
Houston basis. The Platts FOB USGC Export ULSD assessment will not include the value of Renewable Volume
Obligations (RVOs), which reflect the cost of supplying
RINs with fuel when mandated by the US Environmental
Protection Agency as part of the Renewable Fuel Standard
(RFS). RVOs are the amount of renewable fuels to be
blended into transportation fuels for US domestic con(continued on page 15)
14
US Marketscan
FO No.6 0.3% HP New York Harbor Delivered Cargo
assessment rationale: (PGA page 593) Platts assessed
US Atlantic Coast 0.3%S HP fuel oil at $73.40/barrel on
Tuesday. The assessment was based on movements in
the underlying USAC 1%S fuel oil price.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PUAAE00
FO No.6 0.7% New York Harbor Delivered Cargo
assessment rationale: (PGA page 593) Platts assessed
New York 0.7%S fuel oil at $58.75/barrel on Tuesday.
The assessment was based on movements in the
underlying USAC 1%S and 0.3%S HP fuel oil prices.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PUAAH00
FO No.6 2.2% New York Harbor Delivered Cargo
assessment rationale: (PGA page 593) Platts assessed
New York 2.2%S fuel oil at $54.50/barrel on Tuesday.
The assessment was based on movements in the
underlying USAC 1%S and 3%S fuel oil prices.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PUAAU00
[OIL ]
PLATTS.COM NEWS FEATURE
Iraq Oil Crisis
IOCs head back to Kurdistan,
cautious on oil output targets
International oil companies have been resuming operations in Iraqi Kurdistan
weeks after evacuating staff and halting output in the face of a jihadist move
into the semi-autonomous region.
Read more at
http://www.platts.com/news-feature/2014/oil/iraq-oil-crisis/index
December 9, 2014
Subscriber notes
(PGA page 1500)
sumption. The new assessment will be published as
an outright value in both cents/gallon and $/mt. The
value of any cargoes trading as a differential to prompt
pipeline ULSD will be assessed by calculating a forward
value for pipeline diesel to align with the 7-21 day
Export ULSD assessment window. Platts first proposed
the new assessment in a subscriber note June 18, 2014,
and subsequently extended the feedback period on July
11, 2014, and again on September 2, 2014. The feedback
period ended September 15. Please email comments and
questions to [email protected] with a cc to
[email protected] Please provide a clear indication
if comments are not intended for publication by Platts
for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments
received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request.
Platts specifications for vacuum gasoil in the US Gulf
Coast, US Atlantic Coast and US West Coast markets
mistakenly referred to a minimum sulfur content of
2%. This has now been corrected to a maximum sulfur
content of 2%, as follows: Platts assesses the value of
three grades, reflecting (1) a maximum sulfur content
of 0.5%; (2) a maximum sulfur content of 1%; and (3) a
maximum sulfur content of 2%. In all cases, the aniline
point is a minimum 180 degrees Fahrenheit. The aniline
point signifies the temperature at which aniline and oil
are equally mixable, and the relatively higher temperature signifies VGO that has a relatively lower aromatics
content than VGO with an aniline point of minimum
160 degrees F. Platts US VGO assessments reflect material
with a conradson carbon residue of maximum 0.7%.
Platts proposes to discontinue a series of assessments for
clean tanker spot rates in markets where the movement
of clean petroleum products has changed substantially or
no longer occurs. These assessments, which reflect certain
shipping routes and sizes from the Black Sea, Caribbean,
Mediterranean and UK Continent to various destinations,
would be discontinued from April 1, 2015. The proposed
discontinuations reflect the fact that clean petroleum
products flows have changed significantly in the market
at large, and these routes no longer reflect most typical
trading patterns. A full table showing affected assessments
is provided below. Platts requests comments and ques-
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
tions on this proposal by October 31, 2014. Please send
any comments, questions and feedback to Platts editors
at [email protected], with a cc to [email protected]
com. For written comments, please provide a clear indication if the comments are not intended for publication by
Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments
received and will make written comments not marked as
confidential available upon request. Full details on affected assessments can be found using the following link:
http://www.platts.com/subscriber-notes-details/26887316
Following a period of industry feedback that ended July
1, 2014, Platts will discontinue multiple US Atlantic
Coast distillate CIF cargo assessments effective April 1,
2015. Platts opened this consultation on the future of
these assessments on March 14, 2013. Platts it will discontinue the following assessments in the Atlantic Coast:
Boston low sulfur jet kerosene cargo (PJABL00) and ultra
low sulfur jet kerosene cargo (AAVTJ00); New York jet fuel
cargo (PJAAX00), New York low sulfur jet kerosene cargo
(PJABK00) and New York ultra low sulfur jet kerosene
cargo (AAVTH00); New York ULSD cargo (AATGW00)
and Boston ULSD cargo (AATHD00); New York gasoil
No. 2 cargo (POAEH00) and Boston gasoil No. 2 cargo
(POAEA00) assessments. These proposed changes in coverage are in response to evolving market conditions as
the Northeast distillates markets are increasingly export,
rather than import, markets. These assessments can be
found on Platts Global Alert pages 480, 481, 482, 410
as well as US Marketscan and Platts Oilgram Price Report.
Please continue to send any additional comments and
feedback to [email protected] and
[email protected] For written comments, please
provide a clear indication if comments are not intended
for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts will
consider all comments received and will make comments
not marked as confidential available upon request.
Following a period of industry feedback that ended May
31, 2014, Platts confirms it will discontinue assessments
for US Gulf Coast naphtha CIF cargoes effective April 1,
2015. Platts opened this consultation on the future of
the assessments on September 24, 2013. This proposed
(continued on page 16)
15
US Marketscan
FO No.6 3.0% New York Harbor Delivered Cargo
assessment rationale: (PGA page 593) Platts assessed
US Atlantic Coast 3%S fuel oil at $54.35/barrel on
Tuesday. The assessment was based on movements in
Brent crude oil futures and the underlying USAC 3%S
fuel oil swaps market.
The above commentary applies to the following market data
code: PUAAX00
USGC Fuel Oil bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 591)
■■BIDS: Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston FE Mercuria bids
$52.30/b loading December 16-December 18 for
45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston MW Mercuria
bids $52.30/b loading December 19-December 21
for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Mercuria
bids $52.30/b loading December 22-December 24 for
45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston FE Vitol withdraws
bid $52.55/b loading December 16-December 18 for
45kb at 3:06 PM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston FE
Glencore withdraws bid $52.30/b loading December
16-December 18 for 45kb at 3:11 PM EST; Platts
FO 3%S: FOB Houston MW Glencore withdraws bid
$52.30/b loading December 19-December 21 for
45kb at 3:11 PM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston
BE Vitol withdraws bid $52.65/b loading December
22-December 24 for 45kb at 3:06 PM EST; Platts
FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Glencore withdraws bid
$52.30/b loading December 22-December 24 for
45kb at 3:11 PM EST.
■■OFFERS: Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston FE Mercuria
offers $53.65/b loading December 16-December 18
for 45kb; Platts FO 1%S: FOB Houston FE Trafigura
offers $58.15/b loading December 16-December 18
for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston MW Mercuria
offers $53.65/b loading December 19-December
21 for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Vitol
offers $53.25/b loading December 22-December 24
for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Mercuria
offers $53.65/b loading December 22-December
24 for 45kb; Platts FO RMG 380: FOB Houston
BE Glencore offers $53.85/b loading December
22-December 24 for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB
December 9, 2014
Subscriber notes
(PGA page 1500)
discontinuation is due to substantial changes in market
conditions. Significant growth in naphtha production,
a result of liquids-rich gas drilling and light crude oil
domestic production, has shifted the US from a net
importer to a net exporter of light naphtha and natural
gasoline, and these exports have increased substantially as rising US supplies will continue to overwhelm
demand. Platts launched on January 2, 2014, a new
naphtha assessment for cargoes loading at US Gulf Coast
terminals on an FOB basis. These assessments are published on Platts Global Alert pages 26, 34, and 338, Platts
BioFuels Alert page 760, in US Marketscan, North American
Crude and Products Scan, Platts Oilgram Price Report, and in
the Platts assessment database under codes AAKWL00 for
US Gulf Coast heavy naphtha cargo, and PAAAC00 for
US Gulf Coast full range naphtha cargo. Please send all
additional comments to [email protected]
and [email protected] For written comments, please
provide a clear indication if comments are not intended
for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts will
consider all comments received and will make comments
not marked as confidential available upon request.
Platts reminds market participants that Platts oil assessments reflect product meeting the parameters detailed
in its published methodology, which includes a requirement that fuel bid and offered should reflect merchantable quality and terms. Jet fuel cargoes bid and offered in
New York Harbor may be considered non-merchantable
for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to a
lower flashpoint than the regional norm (108 degrees
Fahrenheit) and situations when the material contains
blends that are not normally and customarily associated
with the qualities of the product. For instance, New York
Houston FE Trafigura withdraws offer $52.55/b
loading December 16-December 18 for 45kb at
3:10 AM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston FE
Glencore withdraws offer $53.75/b loading December
16-December 18 for 45kb at 3:10 AM EST; Platts
FO 3%S: FOB Houston MW Trafigura withdraws
offer $52.55/b loading December 19-December
21 for 45kb at 3:10 AM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
Harbor jet fuel cargo assessments typically reflect Jet A
fuel that does not contain antistatic additives, which
meets the Buckeye pipeline quality. Additionally, the
NYH jet fuel assessment reflects a delivered cargo market
where the buyer nominates the terminal and the seller is
responsible for delivering oil on a vessel that will fit likely
terminals and jet ties within the port. Please send any
comments or questions to [email protected]
and [email protected] For written comments, please
provide a clear indication if comments are not intended
for publication by Platt s for public viewing. Platts will
consider all comments received and will make comments
not marked as onfidential available upon request.
Following a period of industry feedback that ended
February 28, Platts confirms it will discontinue assessments for US Gulf Coast Premium C BOB (D-Grade)
gasoline effective January 1, 2015. Platts initially proposed suspending this assessment in a note published
on September 19, 2013. Colonial Pipeline no longer
ships this grade with regularity and, as a result, Platts has
observed substantially diminished market liquidity. These
assessments are published on Platts Global Alert page
330, and in the Platts assessment database under code
AARQV00 for pipeline Premium CBOB, and AAWET00 for
waterborne Pre mium CBOB. The seasonal supplemental
assessment for Premium CBOB appears on PG A page 332
under the symbol AASOC00. Please send any further feedback to [email protected] and [email protected]
platts.com. For written comments, please provide a clear
indication if comments are not intended for publication
by Platts or for public viewing. Platts will consider all
comments received and will make comments not marked
as confidential available to the public upon request.
Houston MW Glencore withdraws offer $53.85/b
loading December 19-December 21 for 45kb at
3:10 AM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE
Trafigura withdraws offer $52.55/b loading December
22-December 24 for 45kb at 3:10 AM EST; Platts
FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Glencore withdraws offer
$53.75/b loading December 22-December 24 for
45kb at 3:10 AM EST.
16
US Marketscan
■■DEALS: Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston MW Vitol buys
from Valero $52.55/b loading December 19-December
21 for 45 kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE
Vitol buys from Valero $52.70/b loading December
22-December 24 for 45 kb.
USGC Fuel Oil exclusions: (PGA page 591)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
USAC Fuel Oil bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 594)
■■OFFERS: Platts USAC FO 1.0%S Dlvd Basis NYH,
Phillips 66 offers December 27-December 31
$55.25/b for 50kb.
USAC Fuel Oil exclusions: (PGA page 594)
■■No market data was excluded from the December 9
assessment process.
Gulf Coast LPG
(PGA page 799)
Gulf Coast NGLs were mostly higher Tuesday as the
broader oil complex saw a lift on a slightly weaker US
dollar. NYMEX January crude settled 77 cents higher at
$63.82/barrel, while ICE January Brent closed 65 cents
higher at $66.84/b. Additionally, there is speculation
that the physical oil market may stabilize in 2015 as
North American shale produces reduce some capital
expenditure due to low oil prices. Current crude prices
around $60/barrel on a WTI basis could gradually trim
US shale oil output by 2 million b/d over the next one
to two years if sustained at the current or lower level,
former International Energy Agency executive director
Nobuo Tanaka said Tuesday in an interview with Platts.
Mont Belvieu non-Targa natural gasoline was assessed
at $1.23/gal, up 50 points. There was no trade during
the Platts Market on Close assessment process and
trading on IntercontinentalExchange was also thin during
the morning. The January barrels moved up 65 points to
$1.244/gal as the December/January spread widened
to 1.4 cents contango due to weaker demand in the
front month. The weaker demand was also reflected as
the relative value of natural gasoline against the NYMEX
January crude futures was slightly weaker compared
to Monday despite a higher flat price. At $1.23/gal,
the natural gasoline price equated to 81% of the Platts
assessment for NYMEX front-month crude futures as of
3:15 pm EST (2015 GMT), compared with 81.52% on
Monday. Propane rallied 2.25 cents to 52.25 cents/gal,
while butane remained unchanged at 73.00 cents/gal.
Ethane moved up 1.25 cents to 17.25 cents/gal.
GULF COAST LPG Deals
■■US NGLs: Dec Non-Targa C5 Deals: No deals
News
(PGA page 100)
US diesel to average $3.07/gal in 2015,
down 31 cents from Nov projection: EIA
The US Energy Information Administration cut its
2015 average US refined product prices sharply in its
December Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday.
In its latest release, EIA cut its 2015 US gasoline
forecast to $2.60/gal, down from $2.94/gal in the
November release. Its diesel forecasts expected an
average of $3.07/gal, down from $3.38/gal. Heating oil
prices are forecast to average just $2.96/gal, down from
$3.25/gal. The 11.8% dip in the December gasoline
forecast was less than was in EIA’s November STEOs,
which showed a near 13% reduction from October’s
report. Diesel and heating oil forecasts, while lower,
also exhibited a slightly smaller decline in the December
report. The EIA attributed the expected drop in US
gasoline prices to the weakened Brent complex. Weaker
crude will likely weigh on heating oil prices as the US
heads into winter. “Lower projected crude prices also
contributed to a reduction in the forecast residential
heating oil price and average household heating oil
expenditures this winter compared to last winter,” EIA
said. “The average household that uses heating oil as
its primary space heating fuel is expected to pay an
average of $3.09/gal this winter, $0.79/gal lower than
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
December 9, 2014
last winter,” it said. “The average household is now
expected to spend $1,722 for heating oil this winter,
$57 lower than in last month’s STEO.”
More pipelines carrying crude to USGC
refineries narrows WTI differentials
Crude output from the Permian Basin still outpaces
takeaway capacity but differentials are narrowing as
pipeline infrastructure comes online to carry oil from
West Texas and eastern New Mexico to refineries on
the US Gulf Coast, Platts data showed Tuesday. Platts
unit Bentek Energy has estimated December Permian
crude production at 1.8 million b/d, with current pipeline
capacity in the region at 1.5 million b/d and local
refinery demand at 400,000 b/d. The railway will play a
negligible role in moving crude out of the Permian Basin,
though there is potential for it to absorb incremental
production if pipelines are unable to run at or near
nameplate capacity. Crude volumes carried by rail were
likely to be sporadic unless arbitrage opportunities
arise for locations not accessible by pipelines from the
Permian Basin, such as the US West Coast. Prior to
the completion of the Bridgetex pipeline in September,
the Permian Basin lacked sufficient local demand and
takeaway capacity, resulting in WTI ex-Midland trading at
a discount of as much as $14.65/b to WTI ex-Cashing,
according to Bentek. Bridgetex operator Magellan
said deliveries on the 300,000 b/d crude line began
commercially in September, but traders said the rate
ranged over 110,000-200,000 b/d initially with full
rates anticipated by the end of the year. “WTI Midland
has strengthened steadily since the Bridgetex pipeline
became operational, causing prices to reach near parity
with WTI in the past two weeks,” Bentek Energy analyst
Nicole Leonard said. As less crude is stranded in the
Permian Basin, the spread between WTI out of Cushing
and WTI ex-Midland narrowed. The discount for WTI
from the smaller oil hub of Midland, Texas, averaged
$10.52/b in the third quarter compared with barrels
out of Cushing, Oklahoma, Platts data shows. So far in
Q4, WTI ex-Midland is trading at an average discount of
17
US Marketscan
$3.55/b to WTI ex-Cushing. West Texas Sour ex-Midland
traded at an average discount of $5.70/b to WTI
ex-Cushing in 2013. Increased pipeline access to US
Gulf Coast refineries has narrowed that differential to
an average of $2.06/b so far in 2014. On Monday, WTI
ex-Midland traded at a discount of only 55 cents/b to
WTI ex-Cushing.
Key US House member unveils
crude export bill
US Representative Joe Barton, a Texas Republican and
former chairman of the House Energy and Commerce
Committee, will introduce a bill Tuesday calling for an
end to US restrictions on crude exports. The bill, which
is not expected to be voted on this year, may launch the
start of a Republican push to end the nearly 40-year-old
restrictions on US crude exports as the party prepares to
take over both the House and Senate next month. Barton’s
bill would require the US to “remove all restrictions on the
export of crude oil, which will provide domestic economic
benefits, enhanced energy security, and flexibility in
foreign diplomacy,” a copy of the bill provided by Barton’s
staff said. The bill arrives ahead of a House Energy
and Commerce subcommittee hearing Thursday on the
impact of crude oil export restrictions and at a time when
many Republican leaders have been reticent to take a
stand on the crude export issue. In April, Representative
Michael McCaul, Republican-Texas, introduced the Crude
Oil Export Act (HR 4349) to end the restrictions on crude
exports, but other Republicans, even ardent supporters
of oil producers, have not backed a change to export
policy. For example, Michigan Representative Fred Upton,
the energy committee’s current chairman, and Kentucky
Representative Ed Whitfield, chairman of the Energy and
Power subcommittee, have remained silent on the issue.
Much of the reluctance is due to the perception that
loosening the current export regime may impact gasoline
prices, according to analysts and lobbyists. Barton’s bill
also calls on the Department of Energy to study and offer
recommendations on the size, composition and purpose of
the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The DOE is in the midst
of such a review, which is looking at the size, location
and composition of the crude in the reserve. In a report
released last month, DOE said limited access to pipeline
capacity, storage and, potentially, to US-flagged vessels may
complicate future crude oil deliveries from the SPR.
Prices can support more Bakken, Eagle
Ford, Niobrara, Permian development
While cautioning of “high uncertainty” in its price
projections due to recent volatility, the US Energy
Information Administration on Tuesday estimated that
Brent crude oil prices will average $68.08/barrel in
2015, $15 lower than it forecast in November and
$33 lower than it projected in October. WTI prices,
meanwhile, are expected to average $62.75/b in 2015,
also a $15 drop from the EIA’s November projection.
“The combination of robust world crude oil supply growth
and weak global demand has contributed to rising global
inventories and falling crude oil prices,” the EIA said in
its December Short-Term Energy Outlook. “EIA expects
global oil inventories to continue to build over the next
year, keeping downward pressure on oil prices.” The
agency, the statistical arm of the US Department of
Energy, predicted that downward price pressures would
be concentrated in the first half of 2015, when global
inventory builds would be strong. Brent, for example, will
average $63/b each month from March through May,
before increasing to an average of $73/b in the fourth
quarter. The EIA said it expects the discount of WTI to
Brent to widen slightly from current levels, averaging
$5/b in 2015. But it noted that volatility had created “a
particularly uncertain forecasting environment” and that
prices could be impacted by potential cuts in production
by Saudi Arabia and others, as well as production
outages caused by unrest in countries highly dependent
on oil revenue for their budgets. “Additionally, the price
and lag time required to cause a reduction in forecast
non-OPEC supply growth, particularly US tight oil, is not
known,” the EIA added. “The degree to which non-OPEC
supply growth is affected by lower oil prices will also
affect market balances and prices.” The EIA forecast
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
December 9, 2014
that US crude oil production would average 8.60 million
b/d in 2014, increasing to 9.32 million b/d in 2015.
But with the agency projecting a WTI price of $58/b in
the second quarter of 2015, it said it expects 2015
drilling activity to decline. “Many companies will redirect
investment away from marginal exploration and research
drilling and into core areas of major tight oil plays,”
the EIA said, adding that oil prices would remain high
enough to support continued drilling in the Bakken, Eagle
Ford, Niobrara and Permian Basin plays. Those shale
formations contribute the majority of US oil production
growth. The EIA also revised downward its projection
of Gulf of Mexico production by 95,000 b/d, as some
projects are ramping up slower than expected. The
agency now expects the US Gulf of Mexico to produce
1.55 million b/d in 2015, up from 1.40 million b/d in
2014. Alaska production will decline to 450,000 b/d in
2015, from 490,000 b/d in 2014. “U.S. oil production
growth is expected to slow next year in response to
lower crude prices, but annual output is forecast to
still increase to the highest level since 1972,” EIA
Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a statement.
Growth in US production will cause the US’ share of
consumption met by net crude imports to fall to 21%
in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1969.
The EIA expects the US to import 6.15 million b/d in
2015, down from 6.95 million b/d in 2014. In 2005,
the import share was 60%, falling to 33% in 2013. US
liquids fuel consumption will average 18.96 million b/d
in 2014, the same as in 2013, before rising slightly to
19.10 million b/d, largely on growth in hydrocarbon gas
liquids and distillate demand.
BP set to announce upstream
adjustments from oil price plunge
BP will this week outline its thinking on the impact
of falling oil prices and US oil spill litigation on its
upstream plans at an investor update. The event for
investors on Wednesday makes BP the first of the
majors to publicly pronounce on the direct impact of this
autumn’s oil price collapse and comes as a falling share
18
US Marketscan
price has heightened speculation that it could be a
takeover target. The majors including BP have previously
stressed that they see plunging oil prices — Brent
crude futures are down by a third since early September
— as a short-term phenomenon that should not overly
impact their long-term strategies. But BP is the subject
of particular uncertainty relating to the 2010 Gulf of
Mexico spill, for which it had already incurred $43 billion
in payments as of late-October. The trial in relation to
the spill has still to decide on penalties under the Clean
Water Act, having issued a ruling of gross negligence,
while the Supreme Court on Monday refused BP’s
request to intervene in a legal battle over business and
economic loss payments, which risk spiralling further
out of control. BP already said this week that falling oil
prices have intensified its efforts to cut staffing — it
employs 84,000 people globally, including 15,000 in the
UK and 20,000 in the US. Despite CEO Bob Dudley’s
occasional grumblings about what the Macondo case
says about the US investment climate, the country
remains central to BP’s fortunes due to the size of its
portfolio and the low cost of production there. Analysts
are looking for positive signals both on potential Gulf of
Mexico developments such as the postponed Mad Dog
2 project, which could benefit from recent weakness
in supply chain prices, and on the company’s low-cost
African portfolio, including discoveries made offshore
Angola with independent Cobalt International Energy.
Efforts to shrink its high-cost UK portfolio are also
likely to be in the spotlight. BP’s share price has fallen
Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial
December 9, 2014
around 7% in the last month, and while it is not the
only company to experience downward pressure on its
shares due to weak oil prices, takeover rumors quickly
resurfaced. Analysts, however, believe that the Macondorelated uncertainty makes a bid from risk-averse Shell
unlikely. Given that BP made $22 billion in profit in the
first nine months of this year and $23 billion in the
whole of 2013, not all commentators see its problems
in the US courts as an existential threat, although
some have described a recent dividend hike as rash.
BP’s comments to the market come after upstream firm
ConocoPhillips slashed its capital expenditure budget
for next year by 20% to $13.5 billion, deferring spending
on North American unconventional plays because of the
low price environment.
19