[OIL ] www.platts.com US MARKETSCAN Volume 40 / Issue 236 / December 9, 2014 Atlantic Coast Code MidChange Code Code Mid Change Code New York Harbor (PGA page 152) Delivered cargo (¢/gal) RVP FOB barge RVP Unleaded 87 AAMHG00 178.65–178.75178.700 +1.110 AAMHGRV 15.0 AAMIT00 177.66–177.76177.710 +1.100 AAMITRV15.0 Unleaded 89 AAMIW00 190.75–190.85190.800 +1.110 AAMIWRV 15.0 AAMHJ00 189.76–189.86189.810 +1.100 AAMHJRV15.0 Unleaded 93 AAMIZ00 208.89–208.99208.940 +1.110 AAMIZRV 15.0 AAMHM00 207.91–208.01207.960 +1.100 AAMHMRV15.0 CBOB AAWBK00 173.29–173.39173.340 +0.750 AAWBKRV 15.0 AAWBL00 172.31–172.41172.360 +0.750 AAWBLRV15.0 Prem CBOB AAWLD00 206.39–206.49206.440 +0.860 AAWLDRV 15.0 AAWLC00 205.41–205.51205.460 +0.850 AAWLCRV15.0 Unleaded RBOB AAVKS00 173.29–173.39173.340 +1.050 AAVKSRV 15.0 AAMGV00 172.31–172.41172.360 +1.200 AAMGVRV15.0 Premium RBOB AAVKT00 206.39–206.49206.440 +0.860 AAVKTRV 15.0 AAMGY00 205.41–205.51205.460 +0.850 AAMGYRV15.0 ULS Kero AAVTH00 236.30–236.40236.350 +1.800 AAVTI00 237.30–237.40237.350 +1.800 Low sulfur jet PJABK00 218.30–218.40218.350 +1.800 PJABJ00 219.30–219.40219.350 +1.800 Jet PJAAX00 208.05–208.15208.100 +1.550 PJAAW00 209.05–209.15209.100 +1.550 ULSD AATGW00 213.80–213.90213.850 +5.800 AATGX00 213.80–213.90213.850 +5.800 No. 2 POAEH00 191.30–191.40191.350 +3.050 POAEG00 192.30–192.40192.350 +3.050 ULS Heating Oil AAXPX00211.350 +6.550 FOB cargo ($/barrel) diff vs 1% strip Fuel oil 1% AAWLG0054.89–54.9154.900 -0.140 AAWLG20-0.120 Fuel oil RMG 380 AAWLF0056.34–56.3656.350 -0.140 AAWLF20 1.330 Platts Futures Assessments 3:15 pm ET* Delivered cargo ($/barrel) diff vs 1% strip 2:30 PM ETPlatts 3:15 PM ET 2:30 PM vs No. 6 .3% HP PUAAE0073.39–73.4173.400 -0.140 AAUGA0018.380 Settlement Futures Assessment3:15 PM Spread No. 6 .3% LP PUAAB0074.89–74.9174.900 -0.140 AAUGB0019.880 No. 6 .7% PUAAH0058.74–58.7658.750 -0.140 AAUGC003.730 No. 6 1% PUAAO0055.24–55.2655.250 -0.140 AAUGD000.230 (PGA page 701) NYMEX Light Sweet Crude ($/barrel) No. 6 2.2% PUAAU0054.49–54.5154.500 -0.040 AAUGE00-0.520 Jan AAWS001 63.82 NYCRM0163.77 AAWD0010.05 No. 6 3.0% PUAAX0054.34–54.3654.350 -0.040 AAUGF00-0.670 No. 6 1% strip AAUGG0055.01–55.0355.020 +0.250 AAWS002 63.98 NYCRM0263.92 AAWD0020.06 Feb Swaps AAWS003 64.15 NYCRM03 64.07 AAWD0030.08 NA No.6 1% BalMo (Dec) AARZS0055.09–55.1155.100 +0.250 AAWS004 64.34 NYCRM04 64.25 AAWD0040.09 Apr No.6 1% M1 (Jan) PUAXD0054.70–54.8054.750 +0.250 No.6 1% M2 (Feb) PUAXF0054.90–55.0054.950 +0.250 NYMEX RBOB (¢/gal) (PGA page 701) No.6 1% Q1 ( Q1 15) PUAXG0054.90–55.0054.950 +0.250 Cargo ex-duty* (¢/gal) duty+RINS** Unl-87 AASAA00 171.26–171.36171.310 +1.000 AASAH007.390 Unl-89 AASAB00 183.34–183.44183.390 +1.000 AASAI007.410 Unl-93 AASAC00 201.46–201.56201.510 +1.000 AASAJ007.430 CBOB AASAD00 165.91–166.01165.960 +0.650 AASAK007.380 Prem CBOB AASAE00 198.96–199.06199.010 +0.750 AASAL007.430 Unl RBOB AASAF00 165.91–166.01165.960 +0.950 AASAM007.380 Prem RBOB AASAG00 198.96–199.06199.010 +0.750 AASAN007.430 120k barrel fuel oil barge rate ($/barrel) NYH-Boston AASTV00 2.300 NYH-Philadelphia AASTX00 2.200 NYH-Baltimore AASTW00 1.950 *These assessments reflect gasoline cargoes sold on a delivered, ex-duty basis New York, excluding import duty, import taxes/fees, and Renewable Identification Number (RINS) credits. **These assessments reflect import duty, import fees, and the value of RINS credits for a gasoline cargo sold into New York Harbor. The RINS value is derived from Platts assessments of 2013 calendar-year RINS. Jan Feb NA AARS001 172.36 NYRBM01171.96 AARD0010.40 AARS002 173.60 NYRBM02173.23 AARD0020.37 AARS003 175.70 NYRBM03 175.31 AARD0030.39 AAHS001208.40 NYHOM01208.35 AAHD0010.05 AAHS002206.31 NYHOM02206.17 AAHD0020.14 AAHS003 204.76 NYHOM03 204.57 AAHD0030.19 NYMEX NY ULSD (¢/gal) Jan Feb NA (PGA page 701) * These assessments reflect prevailing futures value exactly at 3:15 pm ET. However, on the business day preceding the following holidays, these assessments reflect the value of futures at precisely 1:30 pm ET: Christmas Day, New Years Day, Fourth of July, and Thanksgiving Day. US Marketscan Market Commentary Atlantic Coast US Gasoline Market analysis: (PGA page 399) Gulf Coast conventional gasoline differentials rose Tuesday for a sixth straight trading day as bargain hunters flooded the buy side in the afternoon. A cadre of sellers brave enough to test the market favored prompt deals over long-term ones, market sources said. Differentials also rose in the Midwest Group 3 and Chicago gasoline cash markets. “I have to admit I have warmed up to gas,” a US products broker said. Gulf Coast conventional gasoline at 13.5 RVP (M4) was assessed at NYMEX January RBOB futures minus 12.5 cents/gal, up 2.45 cents from Monday and 6.9 cents from December 1. M4’s differential now has increased eight of the last 11 trading days after a bear run that saw it fall 25 of 39 trading days. “I didn’t see much buying most of the day until early afternoon, and I wasn’t expecting it when it happened,” a second US products broker said. “There could be a lack of sellers in the later cycles, January and February, and that is helping move the prompt [values] up. But nothing is extremely clear.” The M4 market found support in Colonial Pipeline’s 70th through 72nd cycles this year and the first and second cycles in 2015. Contango through the second cycle developed at about 6 points/ day, compared with about 1 point/day during the next week. Support at the back end of the pipeline market gave the prompt trade a boost, market sources said. Buyers Tuesday outnumbered sellers by a 3-to-2 ratio in the Platts Market on Close assessment process, with Trafigura leading the buy side with 100,000 barrels of M4 purchased from Phillips 66, Musket and Lukoil. M4’s outright price rose for only the second time in the last 10 trading days, rising 4.55 cents to $1.5991/gal. “It might stay in the $1.50 to $1.60 range on M4 outright, but that is just a guess,” the second US broker said. “Futures coming off so much [before Tuesday] should help the differentials to put in somewhat of a floor, I’d expect. But who knows?” Atlantic Coast cash gasoline differentials saw no significant movement. The New York December 9, 2014 Code Mid ChangeCode Boston (PGA page 152) Cargo (¢/gal) Unleaded RBOB AAVPV00176.04–176.14 176.090 Low sulfur jet PJABL00220.80–220.90 220.850 ULS Kero AAVTJ00238.80–238.90 238.850 No.2 POAEA00196.30–196.40 196.350 ULSD AATHD00215.80–215.90 215.850 +0.800 +1.800 +1.800 +3.050 +5.800 ($/barrel) No. 6 2.2% PUAWN0055.34–55.36 55.350 -0.040 CPL Linden* (PGA page 410) (¢/gal) Cycle Jet kero 54 AAXPV00 209.100 +1.550 AAXPVCY66 AAXPU00 211.350 +6.550 AAXPUCY65 ULS Heating Oil AAXPW00 213.850 +6.050 AAXPWCY65 ULSD *Assessments reflect shipments on the next full pipeline cycle after the prompt cycle. Buckeye Pipeline (PGA page 154) (¢/gal) RVP CBOB AAPSY00172.31–172.41 172.360 +0.750 AAPSYRV15.0 AAPSZ00205.41–205.51 205.460 +0.850 AAPSZRV15.0 CBOB Prem AAMHB00172.31–172.41 172.360 +1.200 AAMHBRV15.0 Unleaded RBOB AAMHZ00205.41–205.51 205.460 +0.850 AAMHZRV15.0 Premium RBOB AAJNL00209.05–209.15 209.100 +1.550 Jet fuel Low sulfur jet/kerosene AAJNN00219.30–219.40 219.350 +1.800 ULSD AATHF00213.80–213.90 213.850 +5.800 No.2 AAJNP00192.30–192.40 192.350 +3.050 Buckeye Pipeline Ratables (PGA page 310) (¢/gal) RVP RBOB AAVSS00171.56–171.66 171.610 +1.100 AAVSSRV15.0 AAVSR00171.56–171.66 171.610 +1.100 AAVSRRV15.0 CBOB Laurel Pipeline (PGA page 154) (¢/gal) RVP RBOB AASSM00172.06–172.16 172.110 +1.200 AASSMRV15.0 AASSN00205.16–205.26 205.210 +0.850 AASSNRV15.0 Premium RBOB AAUAS00172.06–172.16 172.110 +0.750 AAUASRV15.0 CBOB AAUAT00205.16–205.26 205.210 +0.850 AAUATRV15.0 Premium CBOB Harbor barge-delivered regular RBOB differential rose 10 points to be assessed at the NYMEX January RBOB futures contract plus 40 points/gal, with an outright of $1.7236/gal. The Group 3 suboctane cash differential rallied 2 cents to be assessed at NYMEX January RBOB minus 12 cents/gal, putting the outright up 3.1 cents at $1.5996/gal. The suboctane cash differential is up 10.25 cents since December 1. Market sources have cited low gasoline inventories in the Midwest, a weak Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial NYMEX futures contract and recent strength in Gulf Coast gasoline for the strength in suboctane. “Prices are low because crude is low, not because of weak demand in products,” a Midwest source said. The second-cycle Chicago CBOB cash differential jumped 4.75 cents to be assessed at NYMEX January RBOB minus 10 cents/ gal, where it was last heard to trade. The CBOB outright was up 5.9 cents at $1.6196/gal. Market sources have cited the strength in Chicago gasoline spot market to 2 US Marketscan December 9, 2014 Gulf Coast Code MidChange Code Code Mid Change Code Code Houston (PGA page 156) Waterborne (¢/gal) RVP Prompt Pipeline Cycle RVP Unleaded 87 PGACU00161.61–161.71 161.660 +3.550 PGACURV13.5 PGACT00 159.86–159.96159.910 +3.550 PGACTCY69 PGACTRV13.5 Unleaded 89 PGAAZ00168.03–168.13 168.080 +3.270 PGAAZRV13.5 PGAAY00 166.28–166.38166.330 +3.270 PGAAYCY69 PGAAYRV13.5 Unleaded 93 PGAIX00177.66–177.76 177.710 +2.850 PGAIXRV13.5 PGAJB00 175.91–176.01175.960 +2.850 PGAJBCY69 PGAJBRV13.5 CBOB 87 AAWES00157.41–157.51 157.460 +2.850 AAWESRV13.5 AARQU00 155.66–155.76155.710 +2.850 AARQUCY69 AARQURV13.5 CBOB 93 AAWET00177.56–177.66 177.610 +1.750 AAWETRV13.5 AARQV00 175.81–175.91175.860 +1.750 AARQVCY69 AARQVRV13.5 RBOB 83.7 AAMFB00 157.66–157.76157.710 +3.350 AAMFBCY69 AAMFBRV13.5 RBOB 91.4 AAMNG00 175.86–175.96175.910 +0.800 AAMNGCY69 AAMNGRV13.5 Jet 54 PJABM00189.80–189.90 189.850 -2.950 PJABO00 188.05–188.15188.100 -2.950 PJABOCY69 Jet 55 PJABN00193.30–193.40 193.350 -2.950 PJABP00 191.55–191.65191.600 -2.950 PJABPCY69 ULS Kero AAVTK00204.05–204.15 204.100 -2.950 AAVTL00 202.30–202.40202.350 -2.950 AAVTLCY69 Ultra low sulfur diesel AATGZ00192.80–192.90 192.850 +2.600 AATGY00 190.55–190.65190.600 +2.600 AATGYCY69 No. 2 POAEE00187.05–187.15 187.100 +7.300 POAED00 173.30–173.40173.350 +7.300 POAEDCY69 ULS Heating Oil AAXFD00 185.80–185.90185.850 +2.800 AAXFDCY69 ($/barrel)diff vs 3% strip PPAPW00 53.59–53.61 53.600 +0.070 AAUGS00 0.900 Slurry Oil No. 6 1% 6ºAPI min PUAAI0057.24–57.26 57.250 +0.020 AAUGT00 4.550 No. 6 3% PUAFZ00 52.54–52.56 52.550 +0.120 AAUGU00 -0.150 RMG 380 PUBDM00 53.81–53.83 53.820 +0.040 AAUGV00 1.120 No. 6 3% strip AAUGW0052.69–52.71 52.700 +0.150 Swaps No.6 3% BalMo (Dec) AARZT0052.69–52.71 52.700 +0.150 No.6 3% M1 (Jan) PUAXJ0052.50–52.60 52.550 +0.250 No.6 3% M2 (Feb) PUAXL0052.80–52.90 52.850 +0.250 No.6 3% Q1 ( Q1 15) PUAXN0052.80–52.90 52.850 +0.250 NEW FOB Cargo (¢/gal) FOB Cargo ($/mt) Export ULSD AAXRV00 188.923 +0.947 AAXRW00591.141 +2.963 strong buying by Marathon Petroleum, which owns three refineries in the Midwest. A Marathon spokesman was not immediately available for comment. After the MOC process, CBOB was heard to be bid at minus 9 cents/ gal. Second-cycle Chicago RBOB jumped 3.75 cents to be assessed at minus 5 cents/gal. The RBOB outright strengthened 4.9 cents to $1.6696/gal. The Los Angeles CARBOB cash differential fell 2.75 cents to be assessed at NYMEX January RBOB minus 9.75 gal, after 50,000 barrels were heard to trade at that level and rebid. Los Angeles CARBOB against the February futures contract was heard to trade at minus 5 cents/gal. The Portland suboctane cash differential fell 1 cent to be assessed at NYMEX January RBOB minus 19.50 cents/ gal. “It’s oversupplied,” a West Coast source said, “That is why I would think we should see run cuts or exports.” Gasoline Unl 87 Chicago Pipe assessment rationale: (PGA page 388) Platts on Tuesday assessed 15 RVP Chicago unleaded gasoline at NYMEX January RBOB minus 9 cents/gal, 1 cent above CBOB. CBOB was assessed at NYMEX January RBOB minus 10 cents/gal, based on market indications at that level. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PGACR00 Gasoline Prem Unl 91 Group 3 Pipeline assessment rationale: (PGA page 388) Platts on Tuesday assessed 15 RVP A-grade premium gasoline at NYMEX January RBOB plus 26.75 cents/gal, based on a premium of 38.75 cents to V-grade suboctane. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PGABD00 Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial Gasoline Unl Sub Octane Group 3 Pipeline: (PGA page 388) Platts on Tuesday assessed 15 RVP V-grade suboctane at NYMEX January RBOB minus 12 cents/gal, based on market indications at that level. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: AAXIX00 Gasoline Unl 87 USGC Prompt Pipeline assessment rationale: (PGA page 384) Platts assessed pipelinedelivered 13.5 RVP conventional gasoline (M4) at NYMEX January RBOB futures minus 12.05 cents/gal on Tuesday. The assessment was based on a Vitol offer to sell 25,000 barrels at NYMEX January RBOB minus 12 cents/gal following one trade at NYMEX January RBOB minus 11.85 cents/gal, which preceded several trades at NYMEX January RBOB minus 12 cents/gal. 3 US Marketscan The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PGACT00 Gulf Coast (continued) Gasoline CBOB 87 USGC Houston Prompt Pipeline assessment rationale: (PGA page 384) Platts assessed pipeline-delivered 13.5 RVP CBOB (A4) at NYMEX January RBOB futures minus 16.25 cents/gal on Tuesday, based on a Morgan Stanley bid for 25,000 barrels at NYMEX January RBOB minus 16.5 cents/gal. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: AARQU00 NYMEX RBOB at Houston MOC Mo01 assessment rationale: (PGA page 377) Platts assessed the NYMEX January RBOB futures contract at $1.7196/gal at 3:15 pm EST (2015 GMT) Tuesday, based on a trade at that level. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: NYRBM01 NYMEX RBOB at Houston MOC Mo02 assessment rationale: (PGA page 377) Platts assessed the NYMEX February RBOB futures contract at $1.7323/gal at 3:15 pm EST (2015 GMT) Tuesday, with the most competitive offer at $1.7324/gal. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: NYRBM02 Gasoline RBOB NY Barge assessment rationale: (PGA page 381) New York Harbor barge-delivered regular RBOB (F5) at 15 RVP for loading December 12-16 was assessed Tuesday at the NYMEX January RBOB futures contract plus 40 points/gal, based on an indication received outside the Platts Market on Close assessment process. Close to the 3:15 pm EST (2015 GMT) cutoff time, F5 for parcels loading December 14 were heard talked at the January NYMEX RBOB futures contract plus 40 points/gal. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: AAMGV00 US Midwest Gasoline bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 389) ■■There were no bids, offers, or trades during the assessment process. December 9, 2014 Code Mid Code Code Houston extended pipeline cycle assessments (PGA page 156) Pipeline Cycle RVP AAELC00159.86–159.96 159.910 AAELCCY69 AAELCRV13.5 Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 1 Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 2 AAELD00159.91–160.01 159.960 AAELDCY70 AAELDRV13.5 Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 3 AAELE00160.26–160.36 160.310 AAELECY71 AAELERV13.5 Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 4 AAELF00160.61–160.71 160.660 AAELFCY72 AAELFRV13.5 Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 5 AAELG00160.98–161.08 161.030 AAELGCY1 AAELGRV13.5 Unleaded 87 Front Cycle 6 AAELH00161.33–161.43 161.380 AAELHCY2 AAELHRV13.5 Premium 93 Front Cycle 1 AAELI00175.91–176.01 175.960 AAELICY69 AAELIRV13.5 Premium 93 Front Cycle 2 AAELJ00175.96–176.06 176.010 AAELJCY70 AAELJRV13.5 Premium 93 Front Cycle 3 AAELK00176.31–176.41 176.360 AAELKCY71 AAELKRV13.5 Premium 93 Front Cycle 4 AAELL00176.66–176.76 176.710 AAELLCY72 AAELLRV13.5 Premium 93 Front Cycle 5 AAELM00177.03–177.13 177.080 AAELMCY1 AAELMRV13.5 Premium 93 Front Cycle 6 AAELN00177.38–177.48 177.430 AAELNCY2 AAELNRV13.5 Jet kerosene Front Cycle 1 AAELQ00188.05–188.15 188.100 AAELQCY69 Jet kerosene Front Cycle 2 AAELR00190.55–190.65 190.600 AAELRCY70 Jet kerosene Front Cycle 3 AAELS00191.80–191.90 191.850 AAELSCY71 Jet kerosene Front Cycle 4 AAELT00193.05–193.15 193.100 AAELTCY72 Jet kerosene Front Cycle 5 AAELU00193.62–193.72 193.670 AAELUCY1 Jet kerosene Front Cycle 6 AAELV00194.12–194.22 194.170 AAELVCY2 Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 1 AAUJV00190.55–190.65 190.600 AAUJVCY69 Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 2 AAUJW00192.05–192.15 192.100 AAUJWCY70 Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 3 AAUJX00193.05–193.15 193.100 AAUJXCY71 Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 4 AAUJY00194.05–194.15 194.100 AAUJYCY72 Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 5 AAUJZ00194.37–194.47 194.420 AAUJZCY1 Ultra LS diesel Front Cycle 6 AAUKD00194.67–194.77 194.720 AAUKDCY2 No. 2 Front Cycle 1 AAELW00173.30–173.40 173.350 AAELWCY69 No. 2 Front Cycle 2 AAELX00174.05–174.15 174.100 AAELXCY70 No. 2 Front Cycle 3 AAELZ00174.55–174.65 174.600 AAELZCY71 No. 2 Front Cycle 4 AAEMA00175.05–175.15 175.100 AAEMACY72 No. 2 Front Cycle 5 AAEMB00174.87–174.97 174.920 AAEMBCY1 No. 2 Front Cycle 6 AAEMC00175.37–175.47 175.420 AAEMCCY2 ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 1 AAXFJ00185.80–185.90 185.850 AAXFJCY69 ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 2 AAXFK00187.30–187.40 187.350 AAXFKCY70 ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 3 AAXFL00188.30–188.40 188.350 AAXFLCY71 ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 4 AAXFM00189.30–189.40 189.350 AAXFMCY72 ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 5 AAXFN00189.37–189.47 189.420 AAXFNCY1 ULS Heating Oil Front Cycle 6 AAXFP00189.87–189.97 189.920 AAXFPCY2 Please note: Front Cycle 1 was formerly described as prompt front; Front Cycle 2 was formerly described as prompt back; Front Cycle 3 was formerly described as next front; Front Cycle 4 was formerly described as next back; Front Cycle 5 was formerly described as after front; Front Cycle 6 was formerly described as after back US Midwest Gasoline exclusions: (PGA page 389) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. USGC Gasoline bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 385) ■■TRADES: C69: M4: 25K: Noble buys Vit offer -12; M4: 25K: Noble buys MS offer -12; M4: 25K: Musket sells Trafi -12; M4: 25K: Noble buys Luk -11.85; M4: 25K: P66 sells Trafi -12; M4: 25K: P66 sells Trafi -12; M4: 25K: Noble buys Vit -12; M4: 25K: Trafi buys Luk Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial -11.85; V4: 25K: Apex buys P66 offer 4. ■■BIDS: C69: A4: MS bid -16.5, Noble bid -16.75, Luk bid -18.25, Sun bid -19.75; M4: Nville bid -13.75, Noble bid -14, MS bid -14, Luk bid -14; F5: MS bid -16.75, Sun bid -19.5. ■■OFFERS: C69: A4: Vit offer -16; M4: Vit offer -12, Luk offer -11.85, Vit offer -11.75, Nville offer -11.65, CGI offer -11.5. 4 US Marketscan USGC Gasoline exclusions: (PGA page 385) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. USAC Gasoline bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 382) ■■No bids/offers/trades were seen during the December 9 assessment. USAC Gasoline exclusions: (PGA page 382) ■■No data was excluded from the December 9 assessment. US Heating Oil Market analysis: (PGA page 497) US Gulf Coast heating oil moved slightly lower Tuesday, as Colonial Pipeline cycle 69 moved to become the prompt scheduling cycle. Platts on Tuesday assessed Gulf Coast heating oil at the NYMEX January heating oil futures contract minus 35 cents/gal for cycle 69. On Monday, Cycle 69 was assessed at minus 34.75 cents/gal, while cycle 68 was assessed at minus 39.50 cents/gal. The Gulf Coast waterborne premium was unchanged at 13.75 cents/ gal. In New York Harbor, heating oil was slightly weaker, at minus 16.25 cents/gal, based on market talk with bid at minus 16.50 cents/gal against offers at minus 16 cents/gal. Ultra Low Sulfur heating oil was stronger, at plus 3 cents/gal, based on trades reported on Colonial Pipeline cycle 65 for delivery into Linden, New Jersey. Gasoil No.2 USGC Prompt Pipeline assessment rationale: (PGA page 453) US Gulf Coast heating oil for Colonial Pipeline was assessed Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 35 cents/gal, based on a trade at that level. Phillips 66 sold to Trafigura at minus 34.75 cents/gal, and subsequently bought from Glencore at minus 35 cents/gal. December 9, 2014 Gulf Coast (continued) Code Mid Code Code Atlanta (PGA page 156) Prompt Pipeline (¢/gal) Cycle RVP Atl CBOB 87 AAWRV00155.66–155.76 155.710 +2.850 AAWRVCY69 AAWRVRV13.5 AAWRW00175.81–175.91 175.860 +1.750 AAWRWCY69 AAWRWRV13.5 Atl CBOB 93 Feedstocks and Blendstocks (PGF page 760) FOB Cargo (¢/gal)FOB Cargo ($/mt) Naphtha AAXJP00151.61–151.71 151.660 +4.050 AAXJU00530.79–530.89 530.840 +14.180 Cargo (¢/gal) Naphtha PAAAC00149.61–149.71 149.660 +4.050 Heavy Naphtha AAKWL00152.36–152.46 152.410 +3.550 vs Mont Belvieu FOB Parcel 10-30 days (¢/gal) non-Targa natural gasoline (¢/gal) AAXQK00 126.000 -1.500 AAXQN00 3.000 -2.000 Light Straight Run Naphtha FOB Parcel 10-30 days ($/mt) Light Straight Run Naphtha AAXQM00 505.260 -6.020 Barge 7-14 days (¢/gal) Naphtha AALPG00150.61–150.71 150.660 +4.050 Heavy Naphtha AALPI00153.36–153.46 153.410 +3.550 Barge 5-15 days (¢/gal) MTBE PHAKX00237.00–237.10 237.050 +5.900 vs Mont Belvieu Barge 5-15 days ($/mt) non-Targa natural gasoline (¢/gal) AAYEU00464.90–465.00 464.950 -5.500 AAYEW003.750 Paraffinic Naphtha FOB pipeline (¢/gal) Alkylate AAXBA00 197.99 +3.690 AAXBB00 135.24 +3.690 Raffinate AAXBC00 223.74 +3.690 Reformate vs waterborne 87 (¢/gal) vs pipeline 87 (¢/gal) AAFIE0036.00 AAXBD0037.750 AAJMU00-26.75 AAXBE00-25.000 AAJMV0061.75 AAXBF0063.500 Gas Liquids (PGA page 780) Non-LST Mt Belvieu (¢/gal) Ethane/propane PMUDA0516.20–16.30 16.250 +1.250 Ethane purity PMUDB0517.20–17.30 17.250 +1.250 Propane PMAAY0052.20–52.30 52.250 +2.250 Normal butane PMAAI0072.95–73.05 73.000 0.000 Isobutane PMAAB0073.20–73.30 73.250 +0.500 Natural gasoline Targa PMABW05122.20–122.30 122.250 +0.500 Natural gasoline non-Targa PMABY05122.95–123.05 123.000 +0.500 Natural gasoline non-Targa #2 AAWUG00124.35–124.45 124.400 +0.650 LST Mt Belvieu Conway, Kansas Mid Change Ethane/Propane PMAAO0016.20–16.30 16.250 +1.250 Propane PMABQ0052.45–52.55 52.500 +2.500 PMAAT0051.10–51.20 51.150 +1.150 Normal butane PMABR0068.95–69.05 69.000 0.000 PMAAD0079.45–79.55 79.500 +1.250 Isobutane AAIVD0073.20–73.30 73.250 +0.500 PMAAA0082.20–82.30 82.250 -0.750 Natural gasoline AAIVF00124.20–124.30 124.250 +0.750 PMAAQ00124.85–124.95 124.900 +0.900 The above commentary applies to the following market data code: POAED00 Waterborne FOB Houston ($/mt)Waterborne FOB Houston (¢/gal) Propane AAXIM00303.99–304.01 304.000 +25.890 AAXIN0058.34–58.36 58.350 +4.970 Propane vs. Mt Belvieu AAXIO0028.65–28.67 28.660+14.330 AAXIP005.45–5.55 5.500 +2.750 ULS Heating Oil USGC Prompt Pipeline assessment rationale: (PGA page 453) US Gulf Coast ultra low sulfur VLGC Freight Rates ($/mt)VLGC Freight Rates (¢/gal) Houston to NWE AAXIQ0070.00 AAXIR0013.44 AAXIS00220.00 AAXIT0042.23 Houston to Japan Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial 5 US Marketscan heating oil for Colonial Pipeline was assessed Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 22.50 cents/gal, based on market indications. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: AAXFD00 Gasoil No.2 New York Harbor Barge assessment rationale: (PGA page 443) New York heating oil barges were assessed Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 16 cents/gal, based on market indications. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: POAEG00 NYMEX NY ULSD at Houston MOC Mo01 assessment rationale: (PGA page 447) Platts assessed the NYMEX January ULSD futures contract at $2.0835/gal at 3:15 pm EST (2015 GMT) Tuesday, based on 12 trades at that level. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: NYHOM01 NYMEX NY ULSD at Houston MOC Mo02 assessment rationale: (PGA page 447) Platts assessed the NYMEX February ULSD futures contract at $2.0617/gal at 3:15 pm EST (2015 GMT) Tuesday, with the most competitive bid at $2.0616/gal The above commentary applies to the following market data code: NYHOM02 USGC Gasoil bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 454) ■■Trades: Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, PHCO SELLS TO BPP bids -$0.3475 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, PHCO BUYS FROM GLT offers -$0.3500 for 25. ■■Bids: Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, VIT bids -$0.3750 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, KOCH bids -$0.3800 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, NOBLEA bids -$0.3825 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, GLT bids -$0.3900 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C70, VIT bids -$0.3475 for 25. December 9, 2014 Midwest (¢/gal) Code Pipeline MidChange Code RVP Chicago Unleaded 87 Unleaded 89 Premium 91 CBOB PBOB RBOB Jet ULSD ULS No.1 PGACR00162.91–163.01 PGAAX00182.51–182.61 PPASQ00211.91–212.01 AAREL00161.91–162.01 AAUEU00216.91–217.01 PPARH00166.91–167.01 PJAAF00228.55–228.65 AATHA00199.30–199.40 PJACD00244.30–244.40 162.960 182.560 211.960 161.960 216.960 166.960 228.600 199.350 244.350 +5.850 +5.850 +5.850 +5.850 +4.850 +4.850 +2.800 -1.200 -1.200 PGACRRV15.0 PGAAXRV15.0 PPASQRV15.0 AARELRV15.0 AAUEURV15.0 PPARHRV15.0 Group 3 Sub-octane Premium 91 Jet ULSD ULS No.1 AAXIX00159.91–160.01 PGABD00198.66–198.76 PJAAI00212.30–212.40 AATHB00197.10–197.20 PJACB00252.10–252.20 159.960 198.710 212.350 197.150 252.150 +3.100 +3.100 +3.550 +1.150 +1.150 AAXIXRV15.0 PGABDRV15.0 (PGA page 160) (PGA page 160) West Coast Code Los Angeles AAUHA00 Unleaded 84 PGABG00 Unleaded 88.5 AAKYJ00 CARBOB AAKYL00 CARBOB Prem PJAAP00 Jet ULS (EPA) Diesel POAET00 CARB Diesel POAAK00 Pipeline (¢/gal) 161.16–161.26 181.16–181.26 162.16–162.26 170.16–170.26 200.30–200.40 198.55–198.65 199.55–199.65 AANVX00 CARBOB vs NYMEX RBOB -9.80–-9.70 Mid CodeRVP (PGA page 158) 161.210 181.210 162.210 170.210 200.350 198.600 199.600 vs NYMEX Heating Oil AANVY00 -8.05–-7.95 Jet Fuel ULS (EPA) Diesel AANVZ00 -9.80–-9.70 CARB Diesel AANWA00 -8.80–-8.70 Swaps AAKYR00 -4.05–-3.95 CARBOB paper 1st month CARBOB paper 2nd month AAKYS00 12.95–13.05 PUAWR00 180 CST 380 CST PUAWX00 Change Waterborne ($/mt) 409.95–410.05 357.45–357.55 -1.650 -1.650 -1.650 -1.650 +2.800 +4.300 +4.300 -9.750 -2.750 -8.000 -9.750 -8.750 0.000 +1.500 +1.500 -4.000 13.000 -2.000 -1.350 410.000 357.500 +0.500 +0.500 San Francisco AAUHARV13.5 PGABGRV13.5 AAKYJRV12.50 AAKYLRV12.50 (PGA page 158) PGADG00 Unleaded 84 PGABO00 Unleaded 88.5 AAKYN00 CARBOB AAKYP00 CARBOB Prem PJABC00 Jet ULS (EPA) Diesel POAEY00 CARB Diesel POAAL00 Pipeline (¢/gal) 153.91–154.01 173.91–174.01 154.91–155.01 162.91–163.01 200.30–200.40 198.30–198.40 199.30–199.40 Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial 153.960 173.960 154.960 162.960 200.350 198.350 199.350 6 -1.900 -1.900 -1.900 -1.900 +2.800 +2.800 +2.800 PGADGRV14.0 PGABORV14.0 AAKYNRV14.00 AAKYPRV14.00 US Marketscan ■■Offers: Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, KOCH offers -$0.3325 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, NOBLEA offers -$0.3175 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, BPP offers -$0.3100 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, PHCO offers -$0.3050 for 25; Platts Distillates 77 USGC C69, VIT offers -$0.2800 for 25. ■■Platts Distillates 77 USGC C70, VIT bids -$0.3475 for 25. USGC Gasoil exclusions: (PGA page 454) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. December 9, 2014 West Coast San Francisco Code Mid Change (PGA page 158) PUBDA00 180 CST 380 CST PUBCY00 Waterborne ($/mt) 465.95–466.05 425.95–426.05 466.000 426.000 +0.500 +0.500 Seattle (PGA page 158) Pipeline (¢/gal) AAXJE00151.26–151.36 Unleaded 84 AAXJF00171.26–171.36 Unleaded 90 PJABB00200.30–200.40 Jet ULS (EPA) Diesel AAUEX00199.15–199.25 151.310 171.310 200.350 199.200 +0.100 +0.100 +2.800 +1.300 December 9 assessment process. USAC Gasoil exclusions: (PGA page 444) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. US Jet Fuel Market analysis: (PGA page 498) The jet fuel differential for the Gulf Coast, where half the US product is made, plunged 5.75 cents on a scheduling day with few sales outlets, pulling the outright price to a more than five-year low. Platts assessed benchmark Gulf Coast jet at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 20.25 cents/gal, on a deadline day to schedule barrels for Colonial Pipeline movement. Such scheduling days tend to intensify movements, especially in December with extra selling for year-end tax reasons. The flat price dropped to $1.881/gal, the lowest level since October 9, 2009, when it was $1.8712/gal. Gulf Coast jet fuel has slipped by nearly one-third from the 2014 average of $2.7578/gal, and has fallen more than $1 since August 29 when it was $2.8827/gal. “Airlines must absolutely be loving this,” one jet trader said. “We saw that outright GC price fall below $2 for the first time I can remember on Friday, and it’s just kept dropping this week.” “The whole complex is in the toilet,” a second market source AAXJERV15.0 AAXJFRV15.0 Waterborne ($/mt) PUAWT00479.45–479.55 479.500 -10.000 180 CST 380 CST PUAWZ00414.45–414.55 414.500 -10.000 Portland USAC Gasoil bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 444) ■■No bids, offers or trades were reported in the CodeRVP (PGA page 158) Pipeline(¢/gal) AAXJC00 152.41–152.51 Unleaded 84 AAXJD00 172.41–172.51 Unleaded 90 AAUEY00 200.30–200.40 ULS (EPA) Diesel 152.460 172.460 200.350 +0.100 +0.100 +1.300 PUAWV00 180 CST 380 CST PUAXB00 538.000 503.000 +0.500 +0.500 Waterborne ($/mt) 537.95–538.05 502.95–503.05 Phoenix AAXJCRV15.0 AAXJDRV15.0 (PGA page 158) AADDP00 AZRBOB 84 PPXDJ00 AZRBOB 88.5 Pipeline (¢/gal) 163.91–164.01 171.91–172.01 163.960 171.960 +1.100 +1.100 West Coast Waterborne AADDPRV8.00 PPXDJRV8.00 (PGA page 158) PGADI00 Unleaded 87 Jet PJABI00 Waterborne (¢/gal) 160.66–160.76 199.30–199.40 ($/barrel) PUAGD00 59.29–59.31 Fuel oil 0.5% S Fuel oil 1.0% S PUAAQ00 58.79–58.81 Fuel oil 2.0% S AABGP00 56.29–56.31 said. “It’s just supply is exceeding demand, at least in the Gulf.” New York barges slipped 1.25 cents to plus 0.75 cents/gal, but the so-called “up-down” from the Gulf Coast widened to 21 cents, more than four times the cost of shipping along Colonial Pipeline from Houston to New York Harbor. The pipeline, however, has been fully allocated for more than three years, and is especially tight in the winter when demand grows sharply for heating oil and ULSD, other products that share space on the 1.16 million b/d distillates line. The same story holds true for shipping it up Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial 160.710 199.350 -1.650 +2.800 59.300 58.800 56.300 +0.080 +0.080 +0.080 north, with Group 3 out of Oklahoma 75 points higher to plus 4 cents/gal, and Chicago jet unchanged at plus 20.25 cents/gal. Traders said pipelines such as Explorer Pipeline from the Gulf Coast to Chicago, are mostly allocated, making it hard to ship fresh barrels north. The second source noted that the Gulf Coast is lacking good pipeline outlets at a time when production is typically strong to handle the busy holiday air travel season. Instead, he said, “The Gulf is just tanking today. They’re getting way more than they can handle.” Exports are a typical means to 7 US Marketscan relieve the pressure, and demand has been as strong, with Peru the latest to tender a cargo. But freight costs have spiked and stymied any rally in the cargo market. “The market has definitely peaked for freight,” a shipping source said. Storage remains a key option as the steep fall — the largest since a 5.80-cent drop February 19 — created a contango market that more than makes up for the cost of storing barrels to sell later at a higher price. But traders may have a stronger disincentive to put barrels in storage at the end of the year when the tax bill is tallied. Jet Kero 54 USGC Prompt Pipeline assessment rationale: (PGA page 484) US Gulf Coast jet fuel for Colonial Pipeline was assessed Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 20.25 cents/gal, based on five final deals totaling 125,000 barrels at that level before 3:15 pm EST by a variety of buyers and sellers. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PJABO00 Jet Kero Los Angeles CA Pipeline assessment rationale: (PGA page 489) Los Angeles jet fuel was assessed Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 8 cent/ gal, based on a deal heard done before 3:15 pm EST. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PJAAP00 Jet Kero New York Harbor Barge assessment rationale: (PGA page 492) New York jet fuel barges were assessed Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures plus 0.75 cent/gal, based on an offer by Delta Air Lines to sell 25,000 Buckeye Pipeline barrels at plus 1 cent/gal, with Buckeye barrels marked flat to barges. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PJAAW00 Jet Index (PGA page 115) Index ¢/gal PJNAM00 220.98 PJNAM07197.91 North America Latin America & Caribbean PJLAC00 231.88 PJLAC07199.30 PJGLO00 226.96 PJGLO07197.68 Global December 9, 2014 Caribbean Cargoes Code Mid Change Code MidChange (PGA page 162) Cargoes ($/mt) Naphtha PAAAB00514.54–514.61 514.575 +14.340 PAAAB10 Jet kerosene PJAAD00 644.51–644.57 644.540 -9.885 PJAAD10 Gasoil POAAU00 579.16–579.23 579.195 +22.265 POAAU10 ($/barrel) Fuel oil 2% S PUAAS00 50.89–50.91 Fuel oil 2.8% S PUAAV00 45.89–45.91 (¢/gal) 145.35–145.37 145.360 +4.050 192.39–192.41 192.400 -2.950 189.89–189.91 189.900 +7.300 50.900 +0.070 45.900 +0.070 European Products Mediterranean cargoes Code Mid Change Code MidChange (PGA page 1114) FOB Med (Italy) ($/mt) CIF Med (Genova/Lavera) Naphtha* PAAAI00480.00–480.50 480.250 +5.500 PAAAH00500.75–501.25501.000 +5.500 Prem Unl 10ppm AAWZA00607.25–607.75 607.500 +4.000 AAWZB00623.25–623.75623.500 +4.000 Jet aviation fuel AAIDL00639.25–639.75 639.500 +3.750 Gasoil 0.1% AAVJI00586.75–587.25 587.000 +2.500 AAVJJ00608.25–608.75608.500 +2.500 1% PUAAK00350.50–351.00 350.750 +0.750 PUAAJ00365.75–366.25366.000 +1.250 3.5% PUAAZ00332.75–333.25 333.000 +3.250 PUAAY00348.00–348.50348.250 +3.750 *Naphtha FOB Med is basis East Med Northwest Europe cargoes (PGA page 1110) FOB NWE ($/mt) CIF basis ARA Naphtha swap PAAAJ00520.50–521.00520.750 +2.250 Naphtha Phy PAAAL00516.50–517.00516.750 +5.500 Gasoline 10ppm AAXFQ00604.75–605.25605.000 +4.500 Jet PJAAV00655.00–655.50 655.250 +4.000 PJAAU00670.50–671.00670.750 +3.750 Ultra low sulfur diesel 10ppm AAWZD00602.00–602.50 670.750 +3.500 AAWZC00622.75–623.25623.000 +3.250 Diesel 10ppm NWE AAVBF00599.00–599.50 599.250 +3.750 AAVBG00619.00–619.50619.250 +3.250 Diesel 10 ppm UK AAVBH00625.00–625.50625.250 +3.250 Gasoil 0.1% AAYWR00587.25–587.75 587.500 +3.000 AAYWS00609.50–610.00609.750 +2.500 1% PUAAM00345.75–346.25 346.000 +1.250 PUAAL00357.00–357.50357.250 +1.250 3.5% PUABB00321.25–321.75 321.500 +4.250 PUABA00334.50–335.00334.750 +4.250 0.509.7% straight run PKABA00407.00–408.00 407.500 +7.000 Low sulfur VGO AAHMX00454.50–455.50 455.000 +7.500 AAHMZ00462.50–463.50463.000 +7.500 High sulfur VGO AAHNB00445.50–446.50 446.000 +7.000 AAHND00453.50–454.50454.000 +7.000 Northwest Europe barges (PGA page 1112) FOB Rotterdam ($/mt) Naphtha Phy PAAAM00512.50–513.00 Eurobob Gasoline AAQZV00587.75–588.25 Unleaded 98 AAKOD00652.75–653.25 Premium Unleaded PGABM00606.75–607.25 Reformate AAXPM00 MTBE PHALA00805.75–806.25 Jet PJABA00664.75–665.25 Gasoil 0.1% AAYWT00601.75–602.25 10 ppm AAJUS00620.00–620.50 1% PUAAP00347.75–348.25 3.5% PUABC00340.50–341.00 Fuel Oil 3.5% 500 CST PUAGN00328.50–329.00 Low sulfur VGO AAHNF00458.00–459.00 High sulfur VGO AAHNI00445.50–446.50 R’dam Bunker 380 CST PUAYW00344.00–345.00 Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial 512.750 +5.500 588.000 +4.500 653.000 +4.500 607.000 +8.250 628.000 +4.500 806.000 +21.000 665.000 +4.000 602.000 +3.500 620.250 +6.000 348.000 +1.750 340.750 +4.250 328.750 +4.250 458.500 +11.000 446.000 +7.000 344.500 +1.000 8 US Marketscan USGC Jet bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 485) ■■DEALS: 54 USGC C69, STUS SELLS TO TAG Jan $-0.2000 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, STUS SELLS TO TAG Jan $-0.2000 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, EPSLN SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.2025 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, STUS SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.2025 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, VALERO SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.2025 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, EPSLN SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.2025 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, STUS SELLS TO MS Jan $-0.2200 for 25kb. ■■POSITIONS: BIDS: 54 USGC C69, TAG no longer bid; 54 USGC C69, NOBLEA no longer bid; 54 USGC C69, MS no longer bid. ■■POSITIONS: OFFERS: 54 USGC C69, VALERO offers Jan $-0.1850 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, STUS offers Jan $-0.1825 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, MS offers Jan $-0.1550 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, NOBLEA offers Jan $-0.1500 for 25kb; 54 USGC C69, PHCO no longer offer; 54 USGC C69, STUS no longer offer. USGC Jet exclusions: (PGA page 485) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. USWC Jet bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 490) ■■There were no bids, offers, or trades today, December 9. USWC Jet exclusions: (PGA page 490) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. Platts Podcast Russian oil exports tumble ahead of 2015 tax changes Platts editors discuss the upcoming changes to the Russian oil export tax scheme and their impact on both crude and product exports, the spot market and other effects. http://plts.co/russia-urals-crude-112614 December 9, 2014 European Products ICE gasoil GWAVE Code MidChange (PGA page 702) MidDate Dec PXAAJ00605.50 08Dec14 Jan PXAAK00604.50 08Dec14 Euro denominated assessments at London MOC Close (PGA page 1116, 1118, 1350 & 1450) CIF NWE cargoes (€/mt) Nap Phy AAQCE00416.03–416.43 416.230 +0.512 Jet AAQCF00540.07–540.48 540.274-2.091 FOB NWE cargoes 1% AAQCG00278.49–278.90 278.695-1.635 FOB Rotterdam barge Prem Unl AAQCH00488.72–489.13 488.925 +2.057 Reformate AAXPN00 505.840 -1.153 10 ppm AAQCI00499.40–499.80 499.597 +0.126 Gasoil 0.1% AAYWY00484.70–485.10 484.897-1.767 3.5% AAQCK00274.27–274.67 274.466 +0.844 Fuel Oil 3.5% 500 CST PUAGO00264.60–265.00 264.801 +0.937 NY harbor cargoes (€ cents/gal) Unleaded 87 AAPYV00144.27–144.35 144.309-1.414 Unleaded 89 AAPYW00154.02–154.10 154.056-1.189 Unleaded 93 AAPYX00168.63–168.71 168.667-0.865 No. 2 AAPYY00153.34–153.42 153.379-0.914 Futures Settlements Settlement Change Low High Volume Open interest PNT*** NYMEX Light Sweet crude ($/barrel) (PGA page 705) Jan 15 NMCL001 63.82 +0.77 62.25 64.20 330077 251100 Feb 15 NMCL002 63.98 +0.77 62.41 64.35 105562 171133 Mar 15 NMCL003 64.15 +0.77 62.61 64.56 58405 146074 Apr 15 NMCL004 64.34 +0.75 62.89 64.75 28624 46767 Total NMCL000701564XNCLP0026151 ICE Brent ($/barrel) (PGA page 704) Jan 15 ICLL001 66.84 +0.65 65.29 67.04 210525 196587 Feb 15 ICLL002 67.22 +0.58 65.73 67.41 151090 273334 Mar 15 ICLL003 67.88 +0.54 66.41 68.04 81430 211006 Apr 15 ICLL004 68.53 +0.50 67.11 68.70 27185 71690 Total ICLL000625476XILLP0023438 ICE Brent NX ($/barrel) (PGA page 704) Feb 15 ICBN001 67.35 +0.58 67.35 67.35 0 0 Mar 15 ICBN002 68.01 +0.54 68.01 68.01 0 0 Apr 15 ICBN003 68.72 +0.49 68.72 68.72 0 0 May 15 ICBN004 69.37 +0.45 69.37 69.37 0 0 Total ICBN000 0 ICE WTI ($/barrel) (PGA page 704) Jan 15 ICIC001 63.82 +0.77 62.33 64.17 63871 62805 Feb 15 ICIC002 63.98 +0.77 62.52 64.32 37218 44350 Mar 15 ICIC003 64.15 +0.77 62.83 64.52 14920 49414 Apr 15 ICIC004 64.34 +0.75 63.03 64.55 4861 11093 Total ICIC000157845XIICP0011341 ICE Middle East Sour crude ($/barrel) (PGA page 704) Feb 15 ICOQ001 65.15 +0.58 65.15 65.15 0 0 Mar 15 ICOQ002 66.25 +0.58 66.25 66.25 0 0 Apr 15 ICOQ003 66.93 +0.58 66.93 66.93 0 0 May 15 ICOQ004 67.62 +0.58 67.62 67.62 0 0 Total Volume ICOQ000 0 XIOQP00 Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial 9 US Marketscan USAC Jet bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 493) ■■DEALS: No deals ■■POSITIONS: BIDS: No bids ■■POSITIONS: OFFERS: Jet USAC BPL FE, DELTAAL offers Jan $0.0225 for 25kb; Jet USAC BPL MW, DELTAAL offers Jan $0.0100 for 25kb; Jet USAC BPL MW, PHCO offers Jan $0.0300 for 25kb. USAC Jet exclusions: (PGA page 493) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. US Diesel Market analysis: (PGA page 499) The Chicago ULSD differential tumbled 4 cents/gal Tuesday as supply in the region has been replenished with barrels coming from the US Gulf Coast and refinery production returning near normal rates. Platts assessed the Chicago ULSD differential at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 9 cents/gal. This is the lowest Chicago ULSD has been since it was minus 15.25 cents/ gal on January 24. Traders said supply in the region has returned following fall turnarounds and barrels coming from the US Gulf Coast. Midwest stocks for the week ended November 28 shot up 1.771 million barrels to 22.892 million barrels while production catapulted 93,000 b/d to 1.151 million b/d, according to US Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday. Group 3 ULSD fell 1.65 cents/gal to minus 11.20 cents/gal, down 1.65 cents/gal. The Gulf Coast ULSD differential dipped 20 points/gal to minus 17.75 cents/gal, the lowest level ever. Gulf Coast ULSD typically drops on end-of-year tax selling. However, when that happens, barrels typically make their way to Europe. Without the demand from Europe this winter, the differential has plummeted. In New York Harbor, the ULSD differential rallied 3 cents/gal to plus 5.50 cents/gal following stronger ultra low sulfur heating oil demand. ULSHO and ULSD are the same specification and the only difference is designated use. Therefore when ULSHO demand kicks up due to seasonality, December 9, 2014 Futures Settlements Settlement Change Low High Volume Open interest PNT*** ICE BWAVE ($/barrel) (PGA page 704) Jan 15 XIBW00166.89 Feb 15 XIBW00267.40 DME Oman crude ($/barrel) (PGA page 2710) Feb 15 XDOA001 63.64 -2.36 1876 Feb 15 DMOQ001 64.88 +0.18 63.52 64.88 2628 5746 Mar 15 DMOQ002 65.68 +0.18 65.01 65.82 124 5 Apr 15 DMOQ003 66.36 +0.18 66.36 66.36 104 5 May 15 DMOQ004 67.05 +0.18 67.05 67.05 300 300 Total Volume DMOQ000 7256 XDOQP003400 NYMEX NY ULSD ($/gal) (PGA page 705) Jan 15 NMHO001 2.0840 +0.0291 2.0365 2.0849 70373 93344 Feb 15 NMHO002 2.0631 +0.0219 2.0215 2.0647 35973 61974 Mar 15 NMHO003 2.0476 +0.0178 2.0105 2.0495 26241 55356 Apr 15 NMHO004 2.0312 +0.0133 1.9975 2.0345 13246 33975 Total NMHO000170889XNHOP0015051 NYMEX RBOB unleaded gasoline ($/gal) (PGA page 705) Jan 15 NMRB001 1.7236 +0.0170 1.6906 1.7325 64279 101376 Feb 15 NMRB002 1.7360 +0.0164 1.7032 1.7430 29920 54369 Mar 15 NMRB003 1.7570 +0.0159 1.7269 1.7630 16835 44641 Apr 15 NMRB004 1.9573 +0.0132 1.9264 1.9628 8907 35601 Total Volume NMRB000144140XNRBP0011172 NYMEX Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) (PGA page 705) Jan 15 NMNG001 3.652 +0.057 3.608 3.709 159077 204666 Feb 15 NMNG002 3.681 +0.058 3.634 3.734 51060 118639 Mar 15 NMNG003 3.640 +0.061 3.588 3.690 62333 148802 Apr 15 NMNG004 3.444 +0.043 3.401 3.470 42871 100398 Total Volume NMNG000362201XNNGP0014770 ICE gasoil ($/mt) (PGA page 704) Dec 14 ICLO001 604.00 +2.50 593.25 605.50 36284 34875 Jan 15 ICLO002 604.00 +2.75 593.00 605.75 76368 111821 Feb 15 ICLO003 616.50 +1.75 606.25 618.00 27319 79049 Mar 15 ICLO004 619.00 +1.75 609.00 620.50 8703 32999 Total Volume ICLO000175191XILOP003995 ICE low sulfur gasoil ($/mt) (PGA page 704) Dec 14 ICLS001 617.00 +3.75 609.75 618.75 876 4168 Jan 15 ICLS002 615.00 +3.00 607.00 616.25 1863 15252 Total Volume ICLS000 2739 XILSP000 *Volume, open interest and PNT reflect prior trading day. PNT reflect volume for Privately Negotiated Trades or off-exchange. **Oman settlements are Post Close settlements. ***Privately Negotiated Trade values found on PGA page 710. US MARKETSCAN Volume 40 / Issue 236 / December 9, 2014 Editorial: Richard Swann, Editorial Director, Americas Oil: +1-713-658-3273, Matt Cook, Senior Managing Editor, Americas Clean Products +1-713-658-3208 Client services information: North America: +1 800-PLATTS8 (+1-800-752-8878); direct: +1-212-904-3070 Europe & Middle East: +44-20-7176-6111 Asian Pacific: +65-6530-6430 Latin America: +54-11-4121-4810, E-mail: [email protected] Copyright © 2014 McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be photocopied, reproduced, retransmitted, put into a computer system or otherwise redistributed without prior written authorization from Platts. Platts is a trademark of McGraw Hill Financial. Information has been obtained from sources believed reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by sources, McGraw Hill Financial or others, McGraw Hill Financial does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any such information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from use of such information. See back of publication invoice for complete terms and conditions. Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial 10 US Marketscan ULSHO follows. At 3:15 pm EST Platts assessed the NYMEX January ULSD futures contract at $2.0835/gal, up 2.8 cents/gal. ULSD USGC Prompt Pipeline assessment rationale: (PGA page 456) Gulf Coast ULSD was assessed Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 17.75 cents/ gal, based on one trade at that level, with ATMI selling to Vitol at minus 17.75 cents/gal. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: AATGY00 ULSD FOB Chicago Pipe assessment rationale: (PGA page 463) Chicago ULSD was assessed Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 9 cents/gal, based on market talk. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: AATHA00 ULSD Group 3 Pipeline assessment rationale: (PGA page 463) Group 3’s X-grade ULSD was assessed Tuesday at NYMEX January ULSD futures minus 11.20 cents/gal, based on six trades that level and a bid left at minus 11.25 cents/gal from Noble. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: AATHB00 December 9, 2014 Five-Day Rolling Averages* *Five Days ending December 9 Naphtha $/mt¢/gal US Gulf W 531.26**531.62 149.65—149.75 US Gulf FOB LSR Parcel 531.93 132.65 US Gulf FOB cargo 530.94 **531.04 151.65 —151.75 Carib Cargo 514.69—514.76 141.79**141.81 Jet Kerosene US Gulf Water US Gulf Pipe Carib Cargo NY Cargo LA Pipeline Group 3 Chicago $/MT ¢/gal 658.55**658.88 198.36—198.46 652.74**653.07 196.61—196.71 673.18—673.24 208.41**208.43 699.73**700.06 212.04—212.14 644.82**645.14 202.14—202.24 700.31**700.65 210.94—211.04 763.06**763.39229.84—229.94 Low Sulfur Resid Fuel Oil $/barrel NY Cargo .3% HP 74.72—74.74 NY Cargo .3% LP 76.30—76.32 NY Cargo .7% Max 60.43—60.45 NY Cargo 1% Max 56.93—56.95 US Gulf 1% 58.97—58.99 $/mt 500.65**500.78 511.24**511.37 392.78**392.91 370.03**370.16 372.70**372.83 Hi Sulfur Resid Fuel Oil NY Cargo 2.2% NY Cargo 3.0% US Gulf 3% Carib 2.0% Carib 2.8% $/barrel 56.02—56.04 55.87—55.89 54.12—54.14 52.55—52.57 47.55—47.57 $/mt 358.54**358.67 357.58**357.71 346.38**346.51 336.31**336.44 304.31**304.44 Crude Oil, FOB Source West Texas Int NYMEX Crude $/barrel 65.29—65.31 65.99 Crude Oil, FOB Source $/barrel Mars64.09—64.11 WTI Posting Plus 3.21 —3.23 Gasoil/Heating Oil L.A. LS Diesel S.F. LS Diesel NY Cargo NY Barge US Gulf Water US Gulf Pipe Group 3 Carib Cargo NYMEX NO. 2 $/barrel 84.02**84.06 84.04**84.08 ¢/gal 200.04—200.14 200.09—200.19 $/mt 606.02**606.34 609.17**609.49 577.46**577.77 541.12**541.43 553.35**554.40 580.50—580.56 665.80 ¢/gal 192.39—192.49 193.39—193.49 187.49—187.59 175.69—175.79 179.66—180.00 186.66**186.68 211.36 Gasoline, US Market Unleaded Premium NY Cargo 183.60—183.70 213.85—213.95 NY Barge 182.61—182.71 212.86—212.96 US Gulf Water 163.05—163.15 183.70—183.80 US Gulf Pipe 161.11—161.21 181.76—181.86 Group 3 197.66—197.76 LA Pipeline 188.76—188.86 SF Pipeline 162.01—162.11 182.01—182.11 Chicago 163.36—163.46212.36—212.46 NYMEX Unl 177.87 Conversions either side of asterisks ULSD New York Harbor Barge assessment rationale: (PGA page 477) New York Harbor barge ULSD was assessed Tuesday flat at NYMEX January ULSD futures plus 5.50 cents/gal, based on market talk. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: AATGX00 USGC Diesel bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 457) ■■DEALS: 62 USGC C69, ATMI SELLS TO VIT Jan $-0.1775 for 25kb. ■■POSITIONS: BIDS: 62 USGC C69, APEXINC bids Jan $-0.1800 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, MS bids Jan $-0.1815 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, NOBLEA bids Jan $-0.1825 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, MS bids Jan $-0.1825for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, GLT bids Jan Platts US Renewable Volume Obligation – Calculated Values (PBF page 302) ¢/gal %/gal Advanced Change Biodiesel Ethanol BiofuelCellulosic 2013 RVO (Jan 1, 2014 – Jan 31, 2015) RVOY013 5.3056 +0.1048 0.9100 8.0200 0.3000 0.0060 2014 RVO (Jan 1, 2014 – Jan 31, 2016) RVOY014 5.7369 +0.1071 1.1300 8.1200 0.4860 0.0040 RVOs are Renewable Volume Obligation values. RVO is the aggregate cost of the Renewable Identification Number percentages per gallon of transportation fuel for biodiesel, ethanol, advanced biofuel, and cellulosic ethanol as mandated by US Environmental Protection Agency in Renewable Fuel Standard Program (RFS2). Platts calculates these RVO values factoring the value of biodiesel, ethanol, advanced biofuel and cellulosic biofuel RIN credits as assessed by Platts for the respective RVO years; RINs are assessed as cents/RIN. Platts will make these RVO calculations available in US Marketscan for only a limited period of time. Platts reserves the right to remove the RVO calculations from US Marketscan at any time without notice. However, you may access the RVO calculations by acquiring a license to Platts Biofuelscan or Platts Biofuels Alert. For any related questions, please contact [email protected] Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial 11 US Marketscan $-0.1835 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, KOCH bids Jan $-0.1840 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, HETCO bids Jan $-0.1850 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, BPP bids Jan $-0.1875 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, TAG bids Jan $-0.1875 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, GEWAR bids Jan $-0.1875 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, MS bids Jan $-0.1875 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, TAG bids Jan $-0.1900 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, ASTR bids Jan $-0.2000 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, VIT no longer bids. ■■POSITIONS: OFFERS: 62 USGC C69, PHCO offers Jan $-0.1750 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, TAG offers Jan $-0.1750 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, BPP offers Jan $-0.1725 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, ATMI offers Jan $-0.1725 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, TAG offers Jan $-0.1700 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, BPP offers Jan $-0.1700 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, TAG offers Jan $-0.1675 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, NOBLEA offers Jan $-0.1650 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, KOCH offers Jan $-0.1600 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, GLT offers Jan $-0.1575 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, MS offers Jan $-0.1550 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, ATMI offers Jan $-0.1550 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, MS offers Jan $-0.1475 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, VIT offers Jan $-0.1400 for 25kb; 62 USGC C69, ASTR offers Jan $-0.1050 for 25kb. USGC Diesel exclusions: (PGA page 457) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. Group 3 Diesel bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 464) ■■DEALS: X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, KOCH SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.1125 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, APEXINC SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.1125 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, KOCH SELLS TO USO Jan $-0.1100 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, CHSI SELLS TO USO Jan $-0.1100 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, VALERO SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.1125 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, TAG SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.1125 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, VALERO SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan $-0.1125 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, KOCH SELLS TO NOBLEA Jan December 9, 2014 US Wholesale Posted Prices PADD 1 Albany, NY Allentown, PA Atlanta Baltimore (a) Binghamton, NY Boston (a) Charleston, SC Charlotte Fairfax (a) Greensboro Miami New Haven (a) New York City (a) Newark, NJ (a) Norfolk (a) Orlando Philadelphia (a) Pittsburgh Providence Portland,ME Raleigh Richmond Savannah Spartanburg Tampa Unleaded Midgrade Premium Kerosene Diesel No.2 Low Sulfur Diesel ULSD 180.20-193.55 179.69-186.10 181.15-202.26 188.52-207.28 186.75-199.68 178.37-184.97 190.90-191.00 169.10-177.41 178.05-197.63 178.10-182.39 178.05-202.60 177.25-184.40 176.60-177.25 175.70-182.20 188.10-203.35 178.90-211.57 175.25-193.17 180.10-191.66 179.55-191.85 185.00-185.49 177.75-182.31 184.40-204.84 199.95-205.00 171.60-178.69 175.55-208.05 191.00-206.42 191.72-205.55 193.40-219.40 203.34-222.59 196.75-212.99 189.50-197.50 205.90-206.00 185.63-194.67 191.21-216.30 192.23-199.68 190.30-216.67 188.15-200.15 187.33-189.25 186.65-199.70 201.10-218.20 192.23-227.67 187.25-208.75 192.10-209.20 190.45-203.85 197.27-198.65 195.75-197.31 194.10-217.84 214.95-220.00 184.60-196.52 189.55-221.66 211.00-225.23 217.05-235.61 220.15-252.35 225.62-255.43 212.51-233.34 209.75-220.90 230.90-247.30 205.80-222.34 194.51-245.12 215.15-228.85 215.05-252.90 208.05-224.70 207.79-210.25 206.45-234.04 225.10-253.17 218.90-262.12 209.12-234.15 215.10-241.50 210.10-227.70 207.69-211.60 220.75-226.31 223.50-250.77 244.95-250.00 212.85-236.12 216.35-257.90 248.00-274.95 198.99-200.64 289.80-289.80 269.00-270.50 197.34-207.57 269.25-269.25 265.00-265.00 220.96-228.45 282.20-282.20 271.36-271.36 196.05-201.20 283.14-283.14 203.50-221.50 199.60-199.60 270.00-270.00 216.02-223.15 212.57-220.88 200.10-214.60 205.60-220.00 216.87-226.75 216.62-221.24 211.38-232.45 204.54-213.00 201.85-214.22 206.75-212.60 216.00-220.54 223.74-227.22 210.55-220.28 199.72-215.30 226.60-229.58 213.28-225.20 219.04-232.20 217.45-220.62 222.50-222.50 206.14-207.75 203.15-223.25 221.00-221.00 199.15-212.60 216.98-237.40 171.24-176.70 169.55-180.74 167.15-179.60 175.50-179.00 187.55-195.67 167.35-171.37 171.27-175.00 164.00-180.95 169.85-180.75 165.25-181.27 173.08-186.90 172.95-192.10 162.02-175.53 166.85-179.95 172.00-178.25 168.50-178.57 161.20-176.50 163.00-173.27 163.25-175.86 174.00-176.42 184.98-192.25 182.98-196.40 194.95-198.00 206.35-215.06 179.35-199.82 183.15-188.59 173.50-196.16 181.85-197.60 174.75-197.53 190.58-192.08 192.30-204.10 175.85-190.49 183.68-202.51 186.00-197.25 180.09-196.17 175.95-198.25 172.50-191.41 161.37-195.86 194.00-201.02 195.99-214.76 201.98-233.80 209.65-236.95 233.95-239.68 229.35-244.55 202.35-228.30 186.73-203.94 193.44-222.16 204.85-235.60 191.25-216.50 223.08-229.68 226.20-241.58 200.86-227.26 208.95-230.31 213.50-222.00 196.45-217.70 185.72-206.50 186.33-203.47 166.82-204.08 232.00/242.42 301.80-301.80 307.30-307.30 307.30-307.30 317.80-317.80 315.80-315.80 308.80-308.80 298.80-298.80 314.80-314.80 298.00-299.00 208.71-223.66 210.00-213.18 201.73-228.90 204.70-214.75 219.35-228.90 225.84-233.50 231.15-233.29 203.75-216.05 235.36-247.90 218.25-231.93 220.25-229.00 212.30-246.75 202.57-207.18 202.08-231.40 218.25-225.00 211.22-230.42 199.60-205.05 204.88-210.37 204.75-213.08 210.97-217.34 PADD 2 Aberdeen Cape Girardeau Chattanooga Chicago (a) Cleveland Columbus Duluth Des Moines Detroit Fargo Green Bay Indianapolis Kansas City, KS Knoxville Milwaukee Minneapolis/St.Paul Oklahoma City Omaha Sioux Falls St.Louis Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial 12 US Marketscan $-0.1125 for 10kb. ■■POSITIONS: BIDS: X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, NOBLEA bids Jan $-0.1125 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, KOCH bids Jan $-0.1200 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, VIT bids Jan $-0.1275 for 20kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, USO no longer bids ■■POSITIONS: OFFERS: X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, APEXINC offers Jan $-0.1075 for 10kb; X Grade GRP 3 DEC 10, KOCH offers Jan $-0.0900 for 10kb; Group 3 Diesel exclusions: (PGA page 464) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. Chicago Diesel bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 465) ■■There were no bids, offers, or trades today, December 9. Chicago Diesel exclusions: (PGA page 465) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. USAC Diesel bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 478) ■■There were no bids, offers, or trades today, December 9. USAC Diesel exclusions: (PGA page 478) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. US Residual Oil Market analysis: (PGA page 599) US fuel oil prices were mixed on Tuesday as a modest uptick in crude oil futures was countered by prevailing weakness in fuel oil markets. Front-month Brent crude oil futures were assessed 49 cents/b higher at $66.75/b, marking the first rise since jumping $1.05/b to $80.29/b on November 21. Fuel oil swaps saw a comparatively moderate rise, with the Gulf Coast 3%S fuel oil balancemonth swap rising 15 cents/b to $52.70/b and the Atlantic Coast 1%S fuel oil balance-month swap climbing 25 cents/b to $55.10/b. Gulf Coast 3%S physical fuel oil was assessed 12 cents/b higher at $52.55/b based December 9, 2014 US Wholesale Posted Prices Unleaded Midgrade Premium Kerosene Diesel No.2 Low Sulfur Diesel ULSD PADD 3 Albuquerque 166.80-178.50 179.50-207.35 191.50-217.35 Amarillo 162.25-163.85 176.75-176.75 195.25-195.25 Baton Rouge 158.60-171.80 167.19-188.80 187.12-210.80 Birmingham 168.15-184.42 183.58-199.92 209.65-229.42 259.75-259.75 Corpus Christi 175.75-176.72 187.75-190.38 210.75-213.84 Dallas/Ft.Worth (a) 161.55-164.84 172.78-181.85 191.33-213.80 Houston (a) 160.00-167.31 167.83-185.31 180.35-214.31 240.10-240.10 Little Rock 169.33-185.11 181.02-203.11 196.46-220.11 New Orleans 161.99-163.47 169.08-186.99 181.51-216.95 San Antonio 162.40-168.50 176.00-181.96 202.40-214.65 222.50-237.00 214.15-232.85 190.95-200.60 197.37-213.55 201.48-202.70 200.00-246.25 192.84-212.86 209.00-212.14 190.75-194.15 209.45-214.68 PADD 4 Billings (b) Casper (b) Denver Salt Lake City 169.29-178.20 153.50-153.50 148.75-178.38 158.90-169.50 198.64-204.93 185.18-185.18 243.79-257.00 154.94-193.38 177.46-208.38 166.82-179.50 178.70-189.50 241.56-244.43 210.62-232.30 217.40-217.50 156.50-160.50 168.00-192.75 170.50-196.00 172.00-198.00 154.00-176.75 157.00-164.75 155.15-159.75 169.50-187.75 167.50-171.50 179.00-204.75 182.50-210.50 197.00-210.50 168.00-199.25 166.00-174.75 167.15-172.25 180.00-196.66 197.00-200.65 199.00-222.75 200.00-210.00 201.50-232.00 197.50-213.25 192.75-301.00 198.50-207.50 226.90-226.90 PADD 5 Anacortes Las Vegas (e) Los Angeles(e) Phoenix Portland,OR SanFran-EBay (e) Seattle/Tacoma Spokane 178.50-182.50 188.00-216.75 194.50-225.50 214.50-227.00 182.00-224.75 175.00-184.75 179.15-184.75 190.50-208.54 All prices are provided by DTN. Discounts or temporary allowances offered by individual companies are not included in posted prices. Prices are unbranded unless noted. Prices are conventional gasoline unless noted. All prices in cts/gal. (a)=RFG. (b)=Branded postings (e)=CARB gasoline/No.2 oil.endfragment Subscriber notes (PGA page 1500) In line with the introduction of new sulfur emissions rules for vessels in the Emissions Control Area around North America in 2015, Platts is proposing new assessments for an ECA-compliant, 0.1% sulfur bunker fuel, with effect from Monday, January 5, 2015. From January 1, 2015, ships traveling within 200 miles of shore in the ECA must limit sulfur emissions from fuel to 0.1%, down from a current maximum of 1%, according to International Maritime Organization rules. The regulations do not stipulate use of a specific fuel, which leaves open the door for multiple means of compliance. Based on extensive consultation with market participants, Platts believes there exists the possibility for a new Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial market to develop for an ECA-compliant bunker fuel that features aspects of residual fuel oils, which have traditionally been a component of bunker fuel, and less sulfur-intense distillate fuels. This likely new bunker fuel has been described by many market participants as a dirty gasoil. The proposed new assessments for this product would be assessed on an ex-wharf basis in Houston and New York, and published in dollars per metric ton. The proposed new assessment would reflect the following specifications: Kinematic viscosity at 50 degrees C: Max 15 CST Flash point: Minimum 60 degrees C (continued on page 14) 13 US Marketscan on bids, offers and deals across the Platts Market on Close assessment process. Vitol bought at that level from Valero in the mid-laycan and bid up to or above that level in the front-laycan and back-end. Trafigura subsequently offered down to $52.55/b across all three laycans before withdrawing its offer toward the end of the MOC process. Despite the relative weakness — Tuesday’s increase came a day after the USGC fuel oil benchmark slipped to its lowest mark since May 27, 2009 — Gulf Coast fuel oil prices continued to strengthen compared with their equivalent in Singapore, with the 10-day moving average discount closing to $5.15/b from $6.47/b on November 26. One trader said that some companies had held onto stocks of heavy slurries in the hopes of sending barrels to Singapore, but the narrowing discount had discouraged arbitrage and limited the value of these slurries. Atlantic Coast 1%S fuel oil continued to come under pressure from Phillips 66 offers during the MOC process and the low sulfur benchmark was ultimately assessed 14 cents/b lower at $55.25/b. Atlantic Coast 3%S fuel oil was assessed 4 cents/b lower at $54.35/b based on indications that the market appeared closer to the Gulf Coast despite ongoing supply tightness. FO No6 3.0%S USGC Waterborne assessment rationale: (PGA page 590) Platts assessed US Gulf Coast 3%S fuel oil at $52.55/barrel on Tuesday. The assessment was based on Platts Market on Close assessment process activity and the underlying USGC 3%S swaps market. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PUAFZ00 FO No.6 1.0% New York Harbor Delivered Cargo assessment rationale: (PGA page 593) Platts assessed US Atlantic Coast 1%S fuel oil at $55.25/barrel on Tuesday. The assessment was based on Platts Market on Close assessment process activity, movements in Brent crude oil futures and the underlying USAC 1%S fuel oil swaps market. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PUAAO00 December 9, 2014 Subscriber notes (PGA page 1500) Sulfur: Max 0.1% Al+Si: Max 60 ppm Ash: Max 0.1% Cetane: Minimum 40 In addition to the above specifications, Platts is particularly interested in feedback on whether or not to include a minimum viscosity; whether or not to specify maximum water content; whether or not to specify a pour point for the fuel; and any other possible parameters that should be included. This product is intended for use in ships and should follow normal market conventions around what is and is not acceptable in its makeup. The assessment would reflect fuel loading on an ex-wharf basis, three to seven days forward from the date of assessment. The minimum stem size would be 200 mt and the maximum stem size would be 1,000 mt. Platts will continue to publish its current assessments for marine gasoil, which is also ECA-compliant. Please send feedback by December 17, 2014, to [email protected] and [email protected]. Please provide a clear indication if comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request. Platts proposes to push back the cutoff time for providing bids and offers for publication in the US Atlantic Coast physical residual fuel oil Market on Close assessment process to 1:45 pm Central Time, 15 minutes later than the current cutoff time of 1:30 pm Central Time. Platts proposes that this change take effect on January 2, 2015. The proposed change follows a reduction in April 2014 in the volume size assessed by Platts in the USAC market to 50,000 barrels from the previous 120,000 barrels. The current 1:30 pm CT cutoff for MOC positions was designed to give market participants more time to react to bids and offers and calculate the logistics involved in a potential trade. The move to a smaller volume size has made this additional time unnecessary, and will align the timings in the USAC fuel oil market with those of other markets with similar batch sizes. Please email comments and questions by December 17, 2014, to [email protected] with a cc to [email protected]. Please provide a clear indication if comments are not intended for publication Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request. Platts confirms it will amend its publication schedule for Friday, December 26, 2014 and not publish any oil assessments from its offices in the US on that day in observance of the Christmas holiday. Platts had proposed waiting for feedback until December 3 prior to publishing a decision on this proposal. However, in response to widespread feedback favoring a decision before the start of the new trading month, Platts is publishing its decision before the start of December.Platts will maintain its current publication schedule for Wednesday, December 24, 2014; Wednesday, December 31, 2014 and Friday, January 2, 2015 on which days its assessment processes will close early.All assessments and Market-on-Close processes will be basis 1:30 pm Eastern time on those days. Please submit any comments to [email protected] and [email protected]. For full details of Platts publishing schedule and services affected, refer to http://www. platts.com/holiday. Platts is introducing an assessment for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel export cargoes loading at US Gulf Coast terminals on an FOB basis, effective December 1, 2014, following a period of industry feedback. The Platts FOB USGC Export ULSD assessment will reflect EN590 quality diesel with a typical standard clip size of 300,000 barrels and a typical operational tolerance of plus/minus 10%. The assessment will reflect cargoes loading seven to 21 days forward from the date of publication, subject to industry standard terminal and vessel nomination procedures. Export ULSD should be free of any biofuels. Loading locations include terminals along the US Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi, Texas, to Pascagoula, Mississippi, normalized to a Houston basis. The Platts FOB USGC Export ULSD assessment will not include the value of Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs), which reflect the cost of supplying RINs with fuel when mandated by the US Environmental Protection Agency as part of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). RVOs are the amount of renewable fuels to be blended into transportation fuels for US domestic con(continued on page 15) 14 US Marketscan FO No.6 0.3% HP New York Harbor Delivered Cargo assessment rationale: (PGA page 593) Platts assessed US Atlantic Coast 0.3%S HP fuel oil at $73.40/barrel on Tuesday. The assessment was based on movements in the underlying USAC 1%S fuel oil price. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PUAAE00 FO No.6 0.7% New York Harbor Delivered Cargo assessment rationale: (PGA page 593) Platts assessed New York 0.7%S fuel oil at $58.75/barrel on Tuesday. The assessment was based on movements in the underlying USAC 1%S and 0.3%S HP fuel oil prices. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PUAAH00 FO No.6 2.2% New York Harbor Delivered Cargo assessment rationale: (PGA page 593) Platts assessed New York 2.2%S fuel oil at $54.50/barrel on Tuesday. The assessment was based on movements in the underlying USAC 1%S and 3%S fuel oil prices. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PUAAU00 [OIL ] PLATTS.COM NEWS FEATURE Iraq Oil Crisis IOCs head back to Kurdistan, cautious on oil output targets International oil companies have been resuming operations in Iraqi Kurdistan weeks after evacuating staff and halting output in the face of a jihadist move into the semi-autonomous region. Read more at http://www.platts.com/news-feature/2014/oil/iraq-oil-crisis/index December 9, 2014 Subscriber notes (PGA page 1500) sumption. The new assessment will be published as an outright value in both cents/gallon and $/mt. The value of any cargoes trading as a differential to prompt pipeline ULSD will be assessed by calculating a forward value for pipeline diesel to align with the 7-21 day Export ULSD assessment window. Platts first proposed the new assessment in a subscriber note June 18, 2014, and subsequently extended the feedback period on July 11, 2014, and again on September 2, 2014. The feedback period ended September 15. Please email comments and questions to [email protected] with a cc to [email protected]. Please provide a clear indication if comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request. Platts specifications for vacuum gasoil in the US Gulf Coast, US Atlantic Coast and US West Coast markets mistakenly referred to a minimum sulfur content of 2%. This has now been corrected to a maximum sulfur content of 2%, as follows: Platts assesses the value of three grades, reflecting (1) a maximum sulfur content of 0.5%; (2) a maximum sulfur content of 1%; and (3) a maximum sulfur content of 2%. In all cases, the aniline point is a minimum 180 degrees Fahrenheit. The aniline point signifies the temperature at which aniline and oil are equally mixable, and the relatively higher temperature signifies VGO that has a relatively lower aromatics content than VGO with an aniline point of minimum 160 degrees F. Platts US VGO assessments reflect material with a conradson carbon residue of maximum 0.7%. Platts proposes to discontinue a series of assessments for clean tanker spot rates in markets where the movement of clean petroleum products has changed substantially or no longer occurs. These assessments, which reflect certain shipping routes and sizes from the Black Sea, Caribbean, Mediterranean and UK Continent to various destinations, would be discontinued from April 1, 2015. The proposed discontinuations reflect the fact that clean petroleum products flows have changed significantly in the market at large, and these routes no longer reflect most typical trading patterns. A full table showing affected assessments is provided below. Platts requests comments and ques- Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial tions on this proposal by October 31, 2014. Please send any comments, questions and feedback to Platts editors at [email protected], with a cc to pricegroup@platts. com. For written comments, please provide a clear indication if the comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make written comments not marked as confidential available upon request. Full details on affected assessments can be found using the following link: http://www.platts.com/subscriber-notes-details/26887316 Following a period of industry feedback that ended July 1, 2014, Platts will discontinue multiple US Atlantic Coast distillate CIF cargo assessments effective April 1, 2015. Platts opened this consultation on the future of these assessments on March 14, 2013. Platts it will discontinue the following assessments in the Atlantic Coast: Boston low sulfur jet kerosene cargo (PJABL00) and ultra low sulfur jet kerosene cargo (AAVTJ00); New York jet fuel cargo (PJAAX00), New York low sulfur jet kerosene cargo (PJABK00) and New York ultra low sulfur jet kerosene cargo (AAVTH00); New York ULSD cargo (AATGW00) and Boston ULSD cargo (AATHD00); New York gasoil No. 2 cargo (POAEH00) and Boston gasoil No. 2 cargo (POAEA00) assessments. These proposed changes in coverage are in response to evolving market conditions as the Northeast distillates markets are increasingly export, rather than import, markets. These assessments can be found on Platts Global Alert pages 480, 481, 482, 410 as well as US Marketscan and Platts Oilgram Price Report. Please continue to send any additional comments and feedback to [email protected] and [email protected]. For written comments, please provide a clear indication if comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request. Following a period of industry feedback that ended May 31, 2014, Platts confirms it will discontinue assessments for US Gulf Coast naphtha CIF cargoes effective April 1, 2015. Platts opened this consultation on the future of the assessments on September 24, 2013. This proposed (continued on page 16) 15 US Marketscan FO No.6 3.0% New York Harbor Delivered Cargo assessment rationale: (PGA page 593) Platts assessed US Atlantic Coast 3%S fuel oil at $54.35/barrel on Tuesday. The assessment was based on movements in Brent crude oil futures and the underlying USAC 3%S fuel oil swaps market. The above commentary applies to the following market data code: PUAAX00 USGC Fuel Oil bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 591) ■■BIDS: Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston FE Mercuria bids $52.30/b loading December 16-December 18 for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston MW Mercuria bids $52.30/b loading December 19-December 21 for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Mercuria bids $52.30/b loading December 22-December 24 for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston FE Vitol withdraws bid $52.55/b loading December 16-December 18 for 45kb at 3:06 PM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston FE Glencore withdraws bid $52.30/b loading December 16-December 18 for 45kb at 3:11 PM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston MW Glencore withdraws bid $52.30/b loading December 19-December 21 for 45kb at 3:11 PM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Vitol withdraws bid $52.65/b loading December 22-December 24 for 45kb at 3:06 PM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Glencore withdraws bid $52.30/b loading December 22-December 24 for 45kb at 3:11 PM EST. ■■OFFERS: Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston FE Mercuria offers $53.65/b loading December 16-December 18 for 45kb; Platts FO 1%S: FOB Houston FE Trafigura offers $58.15/b loading December 16-December 18 for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston MW Mercuria offers $53.65/b loading December 19-December 21 for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Vitol offers $53.25/b loading December 22-December 24 for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Mercuria offers $53.65/b loading December 22-December 24 for 45kb; Platts FO RMG 380: FOB Houston BE Glencore offers $53.85/b loading December 22-December 24 for 45kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB December 9, 2014 Subscriber notes (PGA page 1500) discontinuation is due to substantial changes in market conditions. Significant growth in naphtha production, a result of liquids-rich gas drilling and light crude oil domestic production, has shifted the US from a net importer to a net exporter of light naphtha and natural gasoline, and these exports have increased substantially as rising US supplies will continue to overwhelm demand. Platts launched on January 2, 2014, a new naphtha assessment for cargoes loading at US Gulf Coast terminals on an FOB basis. These assessments are published on Platts Global Alert pages 26, 34, and 338, Platts BioFuels Alert page 760, in US Marketscan, North American Crude and Products Scan, Platts Oilgram Price Report, and in the Platts assessment database under codes AAKWL00 for US Gulf Coast heavy naphtha cargo, and PAAAC00 for US Gulf Coast full range naphtha cargo. Please send all additional comments to [email protected] and [email protected]. For written comments, please provide a clear indication if comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available upon request. Platts reminds market participants that Platts oil assessments reflect product meeting the parameters detailed in its published methodology, which includes a requirement that fuel bid and offered should reflect merchantable quality and terms. Jet fuel cargoes bid and offered in New York Harbor may be considered non-merchantable for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to a lower flashpoint than the regional norm (108 degrees Fahrenheit) and situations when the material contains blends that are not normally and customarily associated with the qualities of the product. For instance, New York Houston FE Trafigura withdraws offer $52.55/b loading December 16-December 18 for 45kb at 3:10 AM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston FE Glencore withdraws offer $53.75/b loading December 16-December 18 for 45kb at 3:10 AM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston MW Trafigura withdraws offer $52.55/b loading December 19-December 21 for 45kb at 3:10 AM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial Harbor jet fuel cargo assessments typically reflect Jet A fuel that does not contain antistatic additives, which meets the Buckeye pipeline quality. Additionally, the NYH jet fuel assessment reflects a delivered cargo market where the buyer nominates the terminal and the seller is responsible for delivering oil on a vessel that will fit likely terminals and jet ties within the port. Please send any comments or questions to [email protected] and [email protected]. For written comments, please provide a clear indication if comments are not intended for publication by Platt s for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as onfidential available upon request. Following a period of industry feedback that ended February 28, Platts confirms it will discontinue assessments for US Gulf Coast Premium C BOB (D-Grade) gasoline effective January 1, 2015. Platts initially proposed suspending this assessment in a note published on September 19, 2013. Colonial Pipeline no longer ships this grade with regularity and, as a result, Platts has observed substantially diminished market liquidity. These assessments are published on Platts Global Alert page 330, and in the Platts assessment database under code AARQV00 for pipeline Premium CBOB, and AAWET00 for waterborne Pre mium CBOB. The seasonal supplemental assessment for Premium CBOB appears on PG A page 332 under the symbol AASOC00. Please send any further feedback to [email protected] and pricegroup@ platts.com. For written comments, please provide a clear indication if comments are not intended for publication by Platts or for public viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential available to the public upon request. Houston MW Glencore withdraws offer $53.85/b loading December 19-December 21 for 45kb at 3:10 AM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Trafigura withdraws offer $52.55/b loading December 22-December 24 for 45kb at 3:10 AM EST; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Glencore withdraws offer $53.75/b loading December 22-December 24 for 45kb at 3:10 AM EST. 16 US Marketscan ■■DEALS: Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston MW Vitol buys from Valero $52.55/b loading December 19-December 21 for 45 kb; Platts FO 3%S: FOB Houston BE Vitol buys from Valero $52.70/b loading December 22-December 24 for 45 kb. USGC Fuel Oil exclusions: (PGA page 591) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. USAC Fuel Oil bids/offers/trades: (PGA page 594) ■■OFFERS: Platts USAC FO 1.0%S Dlvd Basis NYH, Phillips 66 offers December 27-December 31 $55.25/b for 50kb. USAC Fuel Oil exclusions: (PGA page 594) ■■No market data was excluded from the December 9 assessment process. Gulf Coast LPG (PGA page 799) Gulf Coast NGLs were mostly higher Tuesday as the broader oil complex saw a lift on a slightly weaker US dollar. NYMEX January crude settled 77 cents higher at $63.82/barrel, while ICE January Brent closed 65 cents higher at $66.84/b. Additionally, there is speculation that the physical oil market may stabilize in 2015 as North American shale produces reduce some capital expenditure due to low oil prices. Current crude prices around $60/barrel on a WTI basis could gradually trim US shale oil output by 2 million b/d over the next one to two years if sustained at the current or lower level, former International Energy Agency executive director Nobuo Tanaka said Tuesday in an interview with Platts. Mont Belvieu non-Targa natural gasoline was assessed at $1.23/gal, up 50 points. There was no trade during the Platts Market on Close assessment process and trading on IntercontinentalExchange was also thin during the morning. The January barrels moved up 65 points to $1.244/gal as the December/January spread widened to 1.4 cents contango due to weaker demand in the front month. The weaker demand was also reflected as the relative value of natural gasoline against the NYMEX January crude futures was slightly weaker compared to Monday despite a higher flat price. At $1.23/gal, the natural gasoline price equated to 81% of the Platts assessment for NYMEX front-month crude futures as of 3:15 pm EST (2015 GMT), compared with 81.52% on Monday. Propane rallied 2.25 cents to 52.25 cents/gal, while butane remained unchanged at 73.00 cents/gal. Ethane moved up 1.25 cents to 17.25 cents/gal. GULF COAST LPG Deals ■■US NGLs: Dec Non-Targa C5 Deals: No deals News (PGA page 100) US diesel to average $3.07/gal in 2015, down 31 cents from Nov projection: EIA The US Energy Information Administration cut its 2015 average US refined product prices sharply in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday. In its latest release, EIA cut its 2015 US gasoline forecast to $2.60/gal, down from $2.94/gal in the November release. Its diesel forecasts expected an average of $3.07/gal, down from $3.38/gal. Heating oil prices are forecast to average just $2.96/gal, down from $3.25/gal. The 11.8% dip in the December gasoline forecast was less than was in EIA’s November STEOs, which showed a near 13% reduction from October’s report. Diesel and heating oil forecasts, while lower, also exhibited a slightly smaller decline in the December report. The EIA attributed the expected drop in US gasoline prices to the weakened Brent complex. Weaker crude will likely weigh on heating oil prices as the US heads into winter. “Lower projected crude prices also contributed to a reduction in the forecast residential heating oil price and average household heating oil expenditures this winter compared to last winter,” EIA said. “The average household that uses heating oil as its primary space heating fuel is expected to pay an average of $3.09/gal this winter, $0.79/gal lower than Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial December 9, 2014 last winter,” it said. “The average household is now expected to spend $1,722 for heating oil this winter, $57 lower than in last month’s STEO.” More pipelines carrying crude to USGC refineries narrows WTI differentials Crude output from the Permian Basin still outpaces takeaway capacity but differentials are narrowing as pipeline infrastructure comes online to carry oil from West Texas and eastern New Mexico to refineries on the US Gulf Coast, Platts data showed Tuesday. Platts unit Bentek Energy has estimated December Permian crude production at 1.8 million b/d, with current pipeline capacity in the region at 1.5 million b/d and local refinery demand at 400,000 b/d. The railway will play a negligible role in moving crude out of the Permian Basin, though there is potential for it to absorb incremental production if pipelines are unable to run at or near nameplate capacity. Crude volumes carried by rail were likely to be sporadic unless arbitrage opportunities arise for locations not accessible by pipelines from the Permian Basin, such as the US West Coast. Prior to the completion of the Bridgetex pipeline in September, the Permian Basin lacked sufficient local demand and takeaway capacity, resulting in WTI ex-Midland trading at a discount of as much as $14.65/b to WTI ex-Cashing, according to Bentek. Bridgetex operator Magellan said deliveries on the 300,000 b/d crude line began commercially in September, but traders said the rate ranged over 110,000-200,000 b/d initially with full rates anticipated by the end of the year. “WTI Midland has strengthened steadily since the Bridgetex pipeline became operational, causing prices to reach near parity with WTI in the past two weeks,” Bentek Energy analyst Nicole Leonard said. As less crude is stranded in the Permian Basin, the spread between WTI out of Cushing and WTI ex-Midland narrowed. The discount for WTI from the smaller oil hub of Midland, Texas, averaged $10.52/b in the third quarter compared with barrels out of Cushing, Oklahoma, Platts data shows. So far in Q4, WTI ex-Midland is trading at an average discount of 17 US Marketscan $3.55/b to WTI ex-Cushing. West Texas Sour ex-Midland traded at an average discount of $5.70/b to WTI ex-Cushing in 2013. Increased pipeline access to US Gulf Coast refineries has narrowed that differential to an average of $2.06/b so far in 2014. On Monday, WTI ex-Midland traded at a discount of only 55 cents/b to WTI ex-Cushing. Key US House member unveils crude export bill US Representative Joe Barton, a Texas Republican and former chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, will introduce a bill Tuesday calling for an end to US restrictions on crude exports. The bill, which is not expected to be voted on this year, may launch the start of a Republican push to end the nearly 40-year-old restrictions on US crude exports as the party prepares to take over both the House and Senate next month. Barton’s bill would require the US to “remove all restrictions on the export of crude oil, which will provide domestic economic benefits, enhanced energy security, and flexibility in foreign diplomacy,” a copy of the bill provided by Barton’s staff said. The bill arrives ahead of a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing Thursday on the impact of crude oil export restrictions and at a time when many Republican leaders have been reticent to take a stand on the crude export issue. In April, Representative Michael McCaul, Republican-Texas, introduced the Crude Oil Export Act (HR 4349) to end the restrictions on crude exports, but other Republicans, even ardent supporters of oil producers, have not backed a change to export policy. For example, Michigan Representative Fred Upton, the energy committee’s current chairman, and Kentucky Representative Ed Whitfield, chairman of the Energy and Power subcommittee, have remained silent on the issue. Much of the reluctance is due to the perception that loosening the current export regime may impact gasoline prices, according to analysts and lobbyists. Barton’s bill also calls on the Department of Energy to study and offer recommendations on the size, composition and purpose of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The DOE is in the midst of such a review, which is looking at the size, location and composition of the crude in the reserve. In a report released last month, DOE said limited access to pipeline capacity, storage and, potentially, to US-flagged vessels may complicate future crude oil deliveries from the SPR. Prices can support more Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Permian development While cautioning of “high uncertainty” in its price projections due to recent volatility, the US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday estimated that Brent crude oil prices will average $68.08/barrel in 2015, $15 lower than it forecast in November and $33 lower than it projected in October. WTI prices, meanwhile, are expected to average $62.75/b in 2015, also a $15 drop from the EIA’s November projection. “The combination of robust world crude oil supply growth and weak global demand has contributed to rising global inventories and falling crude oil prices,” the EIA said in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook. “EIA expects global oil inventories to continue to build over the next year, keeping downward pressure on oil prices.” The agency, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, predicted that downward price pressures would be concentrated in the first half of 2015, when global inventory builds would be strong. Brent, for example, will average $63/b each month from March through May, before increasing to an average of $73/b in the fourth quarter. The EIA said it expects the discount of WTI to Brent to widen slightly from current levels, averaging $5/b in 2015. But it noted that volatility had created “a particularly uncertain forecasting environment” and that prices could be impacted by potential cuts in production by Saudi Arabia and others, as well as production outages caused by unrest in countries highly dependent on oil revenue for their budgets. “Additionally, the price and lag time required to cause a reduction in forecast non-OPEC supply growth, particularly US tight oil, is not known,” the EIA added. “The degree to which non-OPEC supply growth is affected by lower oil prices will also affect market balances and prices.” The EIA forecast Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial December 9, 2014 that US crude oil production would average 8.60 million b/d in 2014, increasing to 9.32 million b/d in 2015. But with the agency projecting a WTI price of $58/b in the second quarter of 2015, it said it expects 2015 drilling activity to decline. “Many companies will redirect investment away from marginal exploration and research drilling and into core areas of major tight oil plays,” the EIA said, adding that oil prices would remain high enough to support continued drilling in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara and Permian Basin plays. Those shale formations contribute the majority of US oil production growth. The EIA also revised downward its projection of Gulf of Mexico production by 95,000 b/d, as some projects are ramping up slower than expected. The agency now expects the US Gulf of Mexico to produce 1.55 million b/d in 2015, up from 1.40 million b/d in 2014. Alaska production will decline to 450,000 b/d in 2015, from 490,000 b/d in 2014. “U.S. oil production growth is expected to slow next year in response to lower crude prices, but annual output is forecast to still increase to the highest level since 1972,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a statement. Growth in US production will cause the US’ share of consumption met by net crude imports to fall to 21% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1969. The EIA expects the US to import 6.15 million b/d in 2015, down from 6.95 million b/d in 2014. In 2005, the import share was 60%, falling to 33% in 2013. US liquids fuel consumption will average 18.96 million b/d in 2014, the same as in 2013, before rising slightly to 19.10 million b/d, largely on growth in hydrocarbon gas liquids and distillate demand. BP set to announce upstream adjustments from oil price plunge BP will this week outline its thinking on the impact of falling oil prices and US oil spill litigation on its upstream plans at an investor update. The event for investors on Wednesday makes BP the first of the majors to publicly pronounce on the direct impact of this autumn’s oil price collapse and comes as a falling share 18 US Marketscan price has heightened speculation that it could be a takeover target. The majors including BP have previously stressed that they see plunging oil prices — Brent crude futures are down by a third since early September — as a short-term phenomenon that should not overly impact their long-term strategies. But BP is the subject of particular uncertainty relating to the 2010 Gulf of Mexico spill, for which it had already incurred $43 billion in payments as of late-October. The trial in relation to the spill has still to decide on penalties under the Clean Water Act, having issued a ruling of gross negligence, while the Supreme Court on Monday refused BP’s request to intervene in a legal battle over business and economic loss payments, which risk spiralling further out of control. BP already said this week that falling oil prices have intensified its efforts to cut staffing — it employs 84,000 people globally, including 15,000 in the UK and 20,000 in the US. Despite CEO Bob Dudley’s occasional grumblings about what the Macondo case says about the US investment climate, the country remains central to BP’s fortunes due to the size of its portfolio and the low cost of production there. Analysts are looking for positive signals both on potential Gulf of Mexico developments such as the postponed Mad Dog 2 project, which could benefit from recent weakness in supply chain prices, and on the company’s low-cost African portfolio, including discoveries made offshore Angola with independent Cobalt International Energy. Efforts to shrink its high-cost UK portfolio are also likely to be in the spotlight. BP’s share price has fallen Copyright © 2014, McGraw Hill Financial December 9, 2014 around 7% in the last month, and while it is not the only company to experience downward pressure on its shares due to weak oil prices, takeover rumors quickly resurfaced. Analysts, however, believe that the Macondorelated uncertainty makes a bid from risk-averse Shell unlikely. Given that BP made $22 billion in profit in the first nine months of this year and $23 billion in the whole of 2013, not all commentators see its problems in the US courts as an existential threat, although some have described a recent dividend hike as rash. BP’s comments to the market come after upstream firm ConocoPhillips slashed its capital expenditure budget for next year by 20% to $13.5 billion, deferring spending on North American unconventional plays because of the low price environment. 19
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