1. Ingeniería

Currencies Daily Report
Monday, February 02, 2015
Content
Overview
US Dollar
Euro
GBP
JPY
Economic Indicators
Overview:
Research Team
Angel Broking Ltd.
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Currencies Daily Report
Monday, February 02, 2015
Highlights
US Advance GDP fell to 2.6 percent in the quarter ended Dec’14.
China’s HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7-mark in January.
Euro zone’s CPI Flash Estimate declined by 0.6 percent in Jan’15.
Asian markets are trading lower today as weak Chinese manufacturing
data released over the weekend raised concerns about growth in the
world's second-largest economy.
China’s HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7-mark in January from
49.8-mark in December.
Market Highlights (% change)
as on January 30, 2015
Prev.
day
WoW
MoM
YoY
8808.9
-1.6
-0.3
6.4
39.5
SENSEX
29183.0
-1.7
-0.3
6.1
59.6
DJIA
17165.0
-1.4
-2.9
-3.7
9.3
S&P
1995.0
-1.3
-2.8
-4.1
11.2
FTSE
20503.4
-0.4
17.4
13.0
5.4
KOSPI
1951.0
0.1
1.6
1.3
0.1
Last
NIFTY
US Dollar Index
BOVESPA
58497.8
0.2
19.9
21.9
25.5
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded lower by 0.1 percent last week as weak
business spending and a wider trade deficit pushed GDP lower in the last
quarter of 2014. Also, speculation the victorious Syriza party in Greek
elections will pursue its anti-austerity agenda without forcing an exit
from the currency bloc coupled with mixed economic data from the
nation acted as negative factors.
NIKKEI
14506.3
0.2
-0.1
-14.1
66.3
44.53
0.2
-3.8
-16.4
-54.3
1278.50
1.9
-1.1
7.8
1.3
16.76
-7.3
-8.3
6.5
-12.3
5494.00
1.2
-0.5
-12.6
-23.1
104.7
0.1
0.1
1.1
2.9
However, sharp losses were cushioned against the other major
currencies on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve signaled that interest
rates could start to rise around mid-year. The currency touched a weekly
low of 93.96 and closed at 95.00 on Friday.
Nymex Crude $/bbl
Comex Gold $/oz
Comex Silver $/oz
LME Copper (3
month) -$/tonne
G-Sec -10 yr
@7.8% - Yield
Source: Reuters
US Advance GDP fell to 2.6 percent in the quarter ended December from
5 percent in the prior quarter. Chicago PMI rose to 59.4-mark in January
from 58.3 levels in December.
US Dollar (% change)
Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.9 percent last week owing to monthend dollar demand by importers. Also, dollar inflows from foreign
institutional investors (FIIs) were being absorbed by state-owned banks.
In addition, investors booked profits ahead of the expiry of January
derivative contracts.
as on January 30, 2015
Last
Prev.
day
WoW
MoM
YoY
Dollar Index
95.00
0.0
-0.1
4.8
19.6
US $ / INR (Spot)
62.01
-0.4
-0.9
1.6
0.9
US $ / INR Jan’15
Futures (NSE)
US $ / INR Jan’15
Futures (MCX-SX)
62.19
0.02
1.2
-2.44
-1.22
62.20
0.00
1.2
-2.44
-1.18
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – USD/INR
However, sharp losses were cushioned owing to fresh dollar selling by
exporters tracking heavy foreign capital inflows amid strong equity
market. The currency touched an weekly low of 62.02 and closed at
62.01 on Friday.
For the month of January 2015, FII inflows in equities totaled at
th
Rs.1825.90 crores ($296.89 million) as on 30 January 2015. Year to date
basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.1825.90 crores ($296.89 million) as
th
on 30 January 2015.
Outlook
From the intra-day perspective, Indian Rupee will trade sideways today
owing to consistent FII inflows as the Coal India OFS got approximately
USD 1 billion of bids from these accounts will be supportive. While on
the other hand, weakness in Asian markets along with steady dollar will
be negative for the currency.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
US Dollar/INR Jan’15
(NSE/MCX-SX)
valid for February 2, 2015
Trend
Support
Resistance
Up
62.1/62
62.4/62.5
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Currencies Daily Report
Monday, February 02, 2015
Euro (% change)
Euro/INR
The Euro gained 0.7 percent last week as investors are hopeful that the
left-wing Syriza party leader, Alexis Tsipras, is willing to negotiate, easing
concern that a confrontation with its international creditors could lead
Greece to leave the Euro. Also, Germany's Federal Statistics Office said
the number of unemployed people declined for the fourth consecutive
month in January and unemployment rate hit a record-low 6.5% in
January, down from 6.6% in December, in line with expectations.
However, strength in the DX after the Federal Reserve’s policy-making
committee signaled it would keep interest rates near zero at least until
June exerted pressure. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.1422 and
closed at 1.1286 on Friday.
as on January 30, 2015
Last
Prev. day
WoW
MoM
YoY
Euro /$ (Spot)
1.1286
-0.3
0.7
-6.7
-17.4
Euro / INR
(Spot)
Euro / INR
Jan’15 Futures
(NSE)
Euro / INR
Jan’15 Futures
(MCX-SX)
69.99
-0.1
-1.7
8.2
22.2
70.5
0.27
2.3
-8.97
-17.62
70.5
0.23
2.2
-8.98
-17.60
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – Euro
Euro zone’s CPI Flash Estimate fell by 0.6 percent in January as against a
decline of 0.2 percent in December. French Consumer Spending jumped
by 1.5 percent in December as compared to a rise of 0.2 percent in
November. German Retail Sales rose by 0.2 percent in December as
against a rise of 0.9 percent in November.
Outlook
The Euro will trade lower today owing to uncertainty regarding Greece
exit from the Euro Zone. Also, estimates of mixed economic data from
the Euro Zone will act as a negative factor.
Technical Outlook
valid for February 2, 2015
Trend
Support
Resistance
Sideways
70.5/70.3
70.8/70.9
Euro/INR Jan’15
(NSE/MCX-SX)
GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound gained 0.5 percent last week as Bank of England
policy maker Kristin Forbes said an improving global economy may
trigger interest-rate increases sooner than investors expect.
Source: Telequote
GBP (% change)
as on January 30, 2015
Last
Prev. day
WoW
MoM
YoY
1.5066
0.01
0.5
-3.3
-9.1
GBP / INR Jan’15
Futures
(NSE)
93.77
-0.24
1.94
-5.20
-9.48
GBP / INR Jan’15
Futures
(MCX-SX)
93.77
-0.31
1.92
-5.24
-9.51
$ / GBP (Spot)
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – Sterling Pound
However, expectations that the Bank of England is likely to keep rates
lower until well into 2016 and the Fed could become the first major
central bank to lift interest rates later this year. Also, mixed economic
data from the nation acted as a negative factor. The currency touched a
weekly low of 1.5222 and closed at 1.5066 on Friday.
Outlook
The Sterling Pound will trade on a sideways note today as gradual rate
hike indication will exert pressure. While on the other hand, estimates
of favourable manufacturing data will restrict shrp downside.
Technical Outlook
GBP/INR Dec’14
(NSE/MCX-SX)
valid for February 2, 2015
Trend
Support
Resistance
Sideways
93.6/93.4
93.9/94.1
Source: Telequote
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Currencies Daily Report
Monday, February 02, 2015
JPY/INR
JPY (% change)
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in the last week after
Japan’s economy minister said neither the government nor the central
bank has committed to a strict schedule for achieving 2 percent inflation.
Also, rising risk aversion in the markets after the Federal Reserve was
surprisingly bullish on the US economy while reiterating its pledge to
take a patient approach to raising rates supported gains. The Yen
touched a weekly low of 118.81 and closed at 117.44 on Friday.
as on January 30, 2015
JPY / $ (Spot)
Last
Prev
day
WoW
MoM
YoY
117.44
-0.69
-0.3
-1.9
14.1
52.87
0.18
1.65
-0.82
-13.93
52.87
0.18
1.69
-0.86
-13.96
JPY 100 / INR Jan’15
Futures (NSE)
JPY 100 / INR Jan’15
Futures (MCX-SX)
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – JPY
Outlook
The Japanese Yen will trade higher today as worries about the health of
the Chinese economy triggered risk off sentiment. Also, weak GDP data
from the US will spur safe haven demand, thereby supporting the
currency.
Technical Outlook
valid for February 2, 2015
Trend
Support
Resistance
Source: Telequote
JPY/INR Jan’15
(NSE/MCX-SX)
Sideways
52.7/52.6
53/53.1
Economic Indicators to be released on February 2, 2015
Indicator
Country
Time (IST)
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Impact
HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
China
7:15am
49.7
49.8
49.8
High
Spanish Unemployment Change
Euro
1:30pm
-
-32.4
-64.4
High
Spanish Manufacturing PMI
Euro
1:45pm
-
54.2
53.8
Medium
Italian Manufacturing PMI
Euro
2:15pm
-
49.3
48.4
Medium
Manufacturing PMI
UK
3:00pm
-
52.9
52.5
High
Core PCE Price Index m/m
US
7:00pm
-
0.0%
0.0%
Medium
Personal Spending m/m
US
7:00pm
-
-0.1%
0.6%
Medium
ISM Manufacturing PMI
US
8:30pm
-
54.9
55.5
High
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