Arsenal Energy Inc. Corporate Presentation TSX: AEI OTC: AEYIF January 2015 Forward Looking Information Certain information regarding Arsenal Energy Inc. (the “Company”) contained in this presentation, including statements regarding management’s assessment of future plans and operations, its ability to incur the flow-through qualifying expenditures as expected, the timing of drilling, tie-in and commencement of production of new wells, productive capacity and economics of new wells and alternatives for increasing liquidity, may constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws. The forward‐looking statements are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by the Company, including expectations and assumptions concerning the success of optimization and efficiency improvement projects, the availability of capital, the success of future drilling and development activities, the performance of existing wells, the performance of new wells, prevailing commodity prices, the availability of labour and services, the geological nature of the formations targeted by the Company and the success of completion and recompletion activities. Although the Company believes that the expectations and assumptions on which the forward‐looking statements are based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward‐looking statements because the Company can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward‐looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general (e.g., operational risks in development, exploration and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses, and health, safety and environmental risks), commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations, changes in the regulatory regime applicable to the Company and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures. Certain of these risks are set out in more detail in the Company's Annual Information Form will be filed on SEDAR and can be accessed at www.sedar.com on filing. The forward‐looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date hereof and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward‐ looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws. In this presentation the calculation of barrels of oil equivalent (boe) is calculated at a conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of natural gas for one barrel (Bbl) of oil based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable to the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Boes may be misleading particularly if used in isolation. Corporate Presentation January 2015 2 Company Summary Low Payout, Growth Company ! Low decline base production with 2 growth properties ! Payout ratio approximately 10% of trailing cash flow ! Consistent cash flow and production growth ! Undervalued in current market Legend Desan, BC Gas: 600 Boe/d Provost, Alberta Medium oil: 800 Boe/d Low Decline Base ! Base of ~2,300 Boe/d of low decline production Princess Growth Property – Detrital and Glauconite ! Play has added 1,000 Boe/d of new production ! 17 Detrital and 4 Glauconite exploration and development locations based on 3D seismic ! 4 Detrital wells planned for Q1 2015 Repeatable, Low Risk Growth in North Dakota ! Historic growth engine ! 7 net remaining low risk development locations Exploration Upside ! Additional Detrital/Glauconite at Princess, Alberta ! Midale and Bakken at Rennie Lake, North Dakota ! Deep Basin at Blackstone, Alberta Corporate Presentation January 2015 Oil Gas Exploration Princess, Alberta Medium oil: 1,500 Boe/d Development and Exploration Blackstone, Alberta Liquids rich gas Exploration North Dakota Light Oil: 2,000 Boe/d Stanley and Lindahl - Development Rennie Lake - Exploration 3 Low Decline Properties Historic Value Creation Canadian Properties – Q3 Production Desan - 642 Boe/d, 0% Decline 1400 1200 Reserves (mbbl) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -‐200 Acq Prod Pos Rev YE 13 -‐400 -‐600 Princess West Provost - 449 Boe/d, 13% Decline 700 1400 600 1200 500 1000 Reserves (mbbl) Reserves (mbbl) Princess West - 532 Boe/d, 7% Decline 400 300 200 100 0 -‐100 Acq Prod Pos Rev YE 13 800 600 400 200 0 -‐200 -‐200 -‐400 -‐300 -‐600 Corporate Presentation January 2015 Acq Prod Pos Rev YE 13 4 Production/Cash Flow Growth 2014E Results: ! 4,500 Boe/d (77% Oil and Liquids) ! Funds from operations - $53.0 million 2015 Guidance: ! 2015 Capital Program - $26.8 million 9 Detrital wells planned at Princess ($3.00 per share) ! Capex - $53.5 million 4 (0.60 net) Bakken wells at Lindahl 1 Viking horizontal well at Provost ! Operating netback - $37.00/Boe ! Funds flow netback - $32.25/Boe ! Estimated 2014 exit debt - $64.0 million Production- Boe/d (Oil/Gas) ! ! ! Estimated 2015 exit net debt - $64.0 million Average production - 4,700 Boe/d Funds from operations – $30.4 million Cash Flow $MM (Canada/US) 60.0 $3.00 per share 50.0 $2.38 per share 40.0 $1.85 per share 30.0 20.0 $1.99 per share $1.70 per share $1.37 per share 10.0 - 2010 Corporate Presentation January 2015 _ 2011 2012 Canada _ 2013 2014E 2015B US 5 North Dakota Bakken Oil Price Sensitivity US Bakken (Stanley / Lindahl, mostly non-operated): ! Heart of the North Dakota Bakken play ! ! ! $8.4 million US/Hz well DCE&T Light oil (40°API) Main growth properties from 2012 to 2014 Established play, 7 undrilled development locations Challenged at lower WTI prices ! ! Corporate Presentation January 2015 6 Provost - Viking Oil Price Sensitivity JAN 2015 BOD MEETING 7 Princess Detrital Oil Price Sensitivity Princess Detrital (~100% and Operated): ! ! $1 million per well DCE&T 97% medium gravity (25°API) oil ! ! Robust economics at $50.00 WTI per barrel 5 producing wells ! ! ! 3D seismically defined play 17 locations identified 3 planned for Q1 2015 Corporate Presentation January 2015 8 Princess Glauconite Oil Price Sensitivity Princess Glauconite Channel (~100% and Operated): ! ! $1.8 million/well DCE&T Medium gravity (25°API) oil ! ! Robust economics @ 60.00 WTI per barrel 5 producing wells ! ! 3D seismically defined play 5 locations identified Corporate Presentation January 2015 Princess Glauconite Type Well – Payout SensiHvity 9 Princess, Alberta Detrital and Glauconite 3-‐20 indicated Detrital oil OPERATIONS Current production (Boe/d): 1,700 1-‐29 Detrital tested non commercial gas to be abandoned 8-‐20 indicated Detrital oil 8-‐17 Detrital water injector Netbacks Cdn/Boe Q3 Current pricing $76.21 $47.16 Royalty $15.55 $10.38 OPEX $11.29 $13.50 netback ($/Boe) $49.37 $23.28 Legend 1-‐11 indicated Detrital gas 15-‐16 Detrital tested Low rate oil to be fracked Producing Wells Q4 2014 Locations JAN 2015 BOD MEETING 9-‐9 indicated Glauc oil 10 Lindahl, North Dakota Bakken OPERATIONS Current production (Boe/d) 500 Net mineral acres 743 Average working interest Remaining locations (gross) Remaining locations (net) Field netback Q3 2014 ($/Boe) 7.5% 28 6.25% 6.30% 2 55.00 Production mix: Gas: 15% Oil: 85% Legend Producing wells 11.47% 2014 drilled 2015 budget Evelyn Pad 4 wells 15.2 % WI Corporate Presentation January 2015 11 Growth Properties Three Year Drilling Inventory Gross Locations Net Locations Gross EUR / well (Boe) Development Time Frame Estimate 17 17 199 2015-2017 4 4 145 2015-2017 1,280 acre Stanley (oil) 17 5 515 2015-2017 1,280 acre Lindahl (oil) 28 2 515 2015-2017 66 32 - - Drill Locations: Princess - Mannville Detrital (oil) Glauconite (oil) North Dakota – Bakken / Three Forks Development Drilling Inventory Corporate Presentation January 2015 12 Key Corporate Information Corporate Information Q4 2014 Production (Boe/d) Shares issued and outstanding (basic MM) 17.9 38% Total insider ownership 23% Medium oil 41% Management and Directors (basic) 13% Natural gas 21% Management and Directors (fully diluted) 17% Production split: Light oil 4,750 Valuation Summary (as at Dec 31, 2014) CAPITALIZATION Share price Shares outstanding (basic MM) Market capitalization (MM) Net estimated debt (MM) (1) Enterprise value (MM) Net debt / 2015B funds from operations TRADING METRICS $6.77 Funds from operations (MM) (1) 17.9 CFPS $121.0 P/CF $64.0 EV/ CF $185.0 Current dividend yield 2.1X EV/ Boe/d 2014E 2015B $53.7 $30.4 $3.00 $1.70 2.3X 4.0X 3.4X 6.1X 4.1% 4.1% $38,160 $38,160 ¹ Estimates based on internal forecast Corporate Presentation January 2015 13 Appendix Corporate Presentation January 2015 14 Exploration Upside Blackstone – Deep Basin PLAY OVERVIEW Land: 12,760 Net Acres VOLUMETRIC PARAMETERS CARDIUM Porosity (%): (Cardium and Wilrich rights only) 5m 9 Water saturation (%): 25 Thickness (m): 12 Area (acres): AEI potential 2015 Cardium drill 640 Recovery factor (%): 75 Liquid content (Bbl/MMcf): 50 Original raw gas in place/section (Bcf): 17.6 Rec. reserves/well (2 well/section) Gas (Bcf): Liquids (MBbl): 3.9 227 Fahler Sand VOLUMETRIC PARAMETERS FAHLER Porosity (%): 12 Water saturation (%): 30 Thickness (m): 5 Area (acres): 640 Recovery factor (%): 50 Liquid content (Bbl/MMcf): 39 Original raw gas in place/section (Bcf): Industry Cardium drill 02-19-045-15W5 11.5 Rec. reserves/well (1 well/section) Gas (Bcf): Liquids (MBbl): Corporate Presentation January 2015 6.4 213 Vertical completion 11-13-045-16W5/2 15 Corporate Information Officers Directors Independent Reserve Engineers Deloitte LLP Tony van Winkoop President and CEO Neil MacKay Chairman of the Board J. Paul Lawrence Vice President, Finance and CFO Tony van Winkoop ATB Corporate Financial Services National Bank of Canada William Hews Ron Forth Vice President, Engineering Auditor Harley Kempthorne KPMG LLP Leo Nolte Vice President, Drilling and Completions Bill Powers Legal Counsel Derek Petrie Borden Ladner Gervais LLP McCarthy Tetrault Kent Sawatzky Vice President, Production Gjoa Taylor Vice President, Land Corporate Presentation January 2015 Banks Transfer Agent Alliance Trust Company Analyst Coverage National Bank Financial Acumen Capital Finance Paradigm Capital Inc. Industrial Alliance Securities Inc. 16 Contact Information ARSENAL ENERGY INC. Suite 1900, 639-5th Avenue SW Calgary, AB, Canada T2P 0M9 Main Office Fax 403.262.4854 403.265.6877 [email protected] [email protected] www.arsenalenergy.com STOCK SYMBOL TSX AEI OTC PINK AEYIF Corporate Presentation January 2014 17
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