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“TEN ISLAND CHALLENGE”: INFORMACION GENERAL
The Ten Island Challenge es una oportunidad para
que San Andrés, Providencia y Santa Catalina definan y
hagan realidad su visión de una economía limpia
Nuestra Meta/Misión es la de acelerar las
oportunidades comerciales para la transición de las
economías de las Islas basadas en el petróleo a
modelos sostenibles y crear prototipos para otras
economías aisladas
Resultados esperados:
•  Establecido un mercado de inversiones competitivo para
energías renovables en los países participantes
•  Definido un prototipo para modelos a gran escala de
energías renovables
8
ENFOQUE INTEGRADO
Evaluacion
Panorama
• Develop a comprehensive fact
base on conventional and
renewable supply options
including their current costs,
cost trajectories, feasibility,
and risks.
• Understand current utility
business model, threats,
opportunities, and barriers to
change.
Analisis
Technico
• Consider a spectrum of energy
supply and demand reduction
options that will lead to the
best outcome for San Andrés &
Providencia by integrating
understanding of current grid
capabilities and best
dispatching strategies.
• Identify three to four options
that span the spectrum from
current operations to high
penetrations of renewable
energy and energy efficiency
to understand the financial and
technical implications of each
scenario.
Estrategia & Plan de
Negocios
• Design an Energy Transition
Strategy whose key
components will include the
technical, financial, and
business model solutions for
the transition.
• Facilitate regulatory alignment
and stakeholder engagement
to inform the strategic plan as
it is developed and refined.
HOJA DE RUTA DE LA OPORTUNIDAD
COMPARACIÓN DE COSTOS
Costo nivelado de la Electricidad en ($/kWh)
$0,50
Costos comparativos de energías en San Andrés, Providencia y Santa
Catalina
Alto
$0,25
Costo de
Generación
Medio
Bajo
$0.08
$0.10
Costo de eficiencia
energética
Costo de
D&C*
$0,00
Diesel
LNG
Wind
-$0,25
-$0,50
* Costo de Sub Transmisión, Distribución y Comercialización de Energía
Solar
Ahorros netos como
resultado de medidas de
eficiencia energética
Efficiency
OPORTUNIDAD para Ahorrar USD$3 Billones
Costos de energía a futuro (Transporte y Energía): USD 6.2 billones entre 2015 a 2030
Renovables Providencia y
Modernización de Alumbrado
Público
125,00
Planta RSU
Transformación Hospitales
Otros
Miles de barriles por año
100,00
Residencial
Modernización
de la Red
Modernización
Alumbrado Público
San Andrés
Programa de
eficiencia Residencial
Programa de
eficiencia Comercial
75,00
Solar
50,00
Comercial
Eólico
25,00
0,00
Current Energy Use
Planned Projects
Remaining Energy
Use
Increase Building
Efficiency
Deploy Renewables Remaining Oil Use
Hoja de Ruta para alcanzar un escenario de 80% de reducción de consumo de combustible Fósil
3
IN
IN
TA
ROC
RBON
CA
MOUN
KY
STIT UTE
W
AR
ROO
M
FURTHER, FASTER, TOGETHER
GRACIAS
Los detailes:
Justin Locke, [email protected]
7
FIRST REITERATION
1
Set goals. Gather stakeholders to set goals for what they hope to
achieve for an energy transition and confirm their role in and
commitment to the process.
2
Understand energy system. Gather and identify information
related to current energy system, baseline scenario.
3
Determine demand-side resource potential. Conduct and
gather information related to future demand-side impacts on
the current energy system and load forecast.
4
Assess feasibility of renewables. Complete a feasibility
study to assess the renewable energy (e.g., wind and solar)
development potential on the island. The study considers such
factors as quality of the renewable resource, terrain features/
complexity, compatibility with existing and future land uses,
proximity to electrical infrastructure, environmental and
community acceptance factors, constructability logistics, and
others.
8
FIRST REITERATION
5
6
7
Develop and run least cost scenarios. Using data and metrics
gathered previously, utilize a system software (HOMER Energy) to
analyze potential scenarios and those that beat forecasted diesel
generation costs. Scenarios can be up to the 100,000 depending on
the resource potential and limitations.
Complete detailed steady state, dynamic, and transient
studies on the distribution and transmission grids. Model
the entire distribution grid, then conduct a base case steady
state analysis to determine the amount of distributed
generation potential on the existing feeders/circuits. Modeled
distribution generation is then aggregated to the transmission
system, which is then further modeled under dynamic and
transient conditions to evaluate impacts on the stability of the
system for select least-cost RE penetrations and loads.
Align knowledge and provide feedback into least cost scenarios.
Convene a key stakeholder dialogue to provide feedback and
reiteration into the least cost scenarios analyzed.
9
SECOND REITERATION
8
9
10
Refine least-cost scenarios with existing grid conditions. With
feedback from the key stakeholders and understanding of current grid
conditions, rerun leas-cost scenarios in the software to determine
which scenarios still work under those conditions.
Evaluate power production and operational implications
of the least-cost scenarios. We will complete power
simulations of the proposed least-cost scenarios to evaluate
the impacts of the RE scenarios on the diesel generation
dispatch and operation, fuel costs, overall power costs, and
reliability. Results from this analysis may alter the ultimate list
of scenarios that can reliably be considered after studying the
distribution, transmission and power simulations of the
system. financial feasibility of least cost scenarios. Building on
Determine
to the step previously, evaluate under different business and ownership
models the most financial feasible scenarios from different stakeholder
views.
10
THIRD REITERATION
11
12
Select a least-cost scenario as the Energy Transition Pathway. With
key stakeholders, utilize the criteria and goals set forth in the beginning
to evaluate which least-cost scenarios offer the best energy transition
pathway.
Adapt grid code for the Pathway. Develop standards,
operational guidelines and codes related to pathway to ensure
compliance.
13
Identify additional regulations that enable the Pathway.
Ensure that other regulatory mechanisms are in place to
support and enable the pathway moving forward.
14
Create strategy and investment plan. Develop a development and
investment plan that ensures action and strategy towards how to move
the Energy Transition Pathway forward. 15
Seek plan approval. Seek approval from key stakeholders
and public processes to ensure that plan is equitable and
reliable.