1. Art and Diseño

Commodities Daily Report
nd
Monday| 02 February, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Content
Chana
Sugar
Oilseeds
Edible Oils
Spices
Cotton
Prepared by
Anuj Gupta – A.V.P - Research
[email protected]
(011) 49165954
Ritesh Kumar Sahu – Analyst
[email protected]
(022) 2921 2000 (Ext 6165)
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and
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Commodities Daily Report
nd
Monday| 02 February, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Chana
NCDEX Chana Feb. futures traded on positive note on Friday and closed
1.60% higher due to good support on the lower levels by the market
participants. There is an expectation of new crop arrivals in less than a
month’s time. Overall sentiments look mixed for Chana amid expected
lower output and duty-free export allowed till Mar 2015.
As per the Govt data, Chana has been sown over 83.93 lakh hectares
which is less 15.5 % as on Jan 30, 2015 as compared to last year’s 99.27
lakh hac.
The Weather so far has been conducive to the growth of Chana crop in
the growing states.
Outlook
Market Highlights
As on Jan 30, 2015
% change
Unit
`/qtl
`/qtl
Chana Spot - NCDEX
Chana- NCDEX Feb Fut
Last
3516
3562
Prev day
2.04
1.16
WoW
4.39
2.74
MoM
-4.29
0.34
YoY
21.17
16.71
Source: Reuters
Spread Matrix
Spot
20-Feb-15
20-Apr-15
20-May-15
Closing
3516.05
3503
3562
3603
As on Jan 30, 2015
20-Apr-15
20-May-15
45.95
86.95
59
100
0
41
0
20-Feb-15
-13.05
0
-
Technical Chart - Chana
NCDEX Feb contract
Market Highlights
As on Jan 30, 2015
Chana futures are expected to trade mixed in the coming days due to low
supplies in spot market and new crop to hit the local mandi in less than a
month’s time.
Technical Levels
Contract
Chana NCDEX Feb Futures
Valid for Feb 02, 2015
Unit
`/qtl
Support
Resistance
3430-3465
3530-3560
Sugar
Sugar Mar. futures closed positive on Friday largely due to export subsidy
announced by the Govt. But upward revision of production of sugar data
by ISMA capped the further rise in prices.
Food ministry had provided a subsidy of Rs 3,371 per tonne for exports of
raw sugar until September 1.4 million tonnes of sugar. The Cabinet
Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved a proposal to allow
states to fix the retail price of sugar sold through the Public Distribution
System (PDS).
Sugar production has reached 10.3 million tonnes till Jan 15 for the 201415 season, as against 8.65 million tonnes in the year-ago, a rise of 19%.
Till Jan 15, 494 sugar mills were operating in the country as against 486
sugar mills in a year ago.
As per the revised forecast, Sugar mills are expected to produce around
26 million tonnes in 2014-15 season ending September. Maharashtra
production is projected to rise to 9.5 million tonnes from 7.7 million
tonnes in the previous year. ISMA projected the annual domestic
demand of sugar at 24.8 million tonnes.
Source: Telequote
Unit
Sugar SpotNCDEX
Sugar M- NCDEX
Mar Fut
Sugar No 5- LiffeMar Fut
Sugar No 11-ICE
Mar Fut
Last
Prev. day
WoW
MoM
% Change
YoY
`/qtl
2975
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.19
`/qtl
2723
0.29
1.00
-0.58
3.38
$/tonne
383.4
-0.31
-6.01
-1.99
-6.33
$/tonne
328.67
-0.40
-7.04
1.86
-1.33
Source: Reuters
Sugar Spread Matrix
Spot
20-Mar-15
20-May-15
20-Jul-15
Closing
2975
2723
2818
2889
Technical Chart – Sugar M
20-Mar-15
-252
0
-
20-May-15
-157
95
0
-
As on Jan 30, 2015
20-Jul-15
-86
166
71
0
NCDEX March contract
Global Sugar Updates
In 2014-15, Rabobank has forecasted a decline of 1.8 million tonnes of
global sugar supplies in 2014/15. In Australia, drier weather is likely to
result in lower sugar production in the year ahead due to the prospect of
an El Nino weather event. China's sugar production predicted to decline
12% against the backdrop of a 4% rise in demand.
According to ABARE, Dec quarterly forecast, Australian raw sugar exports
would rise 6 % in 2014–15 to 3.3 mt, up 7%, with higher volumes more
than offsetting the impact of lower prices.
Source: Telequote
According to International Sugar Organization, the world stock has
reached 76.6 mn tonnes as of the end of 2015-16, equivalent to 42.8% of
world annual consumption.
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Commodities Daily Report
nd
Monday| 02 February, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Outlook
Sugar futures may trade on a mixed note on export subsidy announced
by the government but the ample supplies may pressurize the prices.
Technical Outlook
Contract
Sugar NCDEX Mar Futures
Market Highlights
As on Jan 30, 2015
Unit
Soybean Spot- NCDEX
`/qtl
Last
3391
Soybean- NCDEX Feb Fut
`/qtl
3434
2.08
1.81
-0.61
-9.18
Soybean-CBOT Feb Fut
USc/Bsh
968
-0.72
-1.55
-5.45
-23.26
RM Seed Spot- NCDEX
`/qtl
3661
-0.17
-9.33
-15.85
5.05
RM Seed- NCDEX Apr Fut
`/qtl
3378
0.87
-2.48
-4.14
-0.12
Valid for Feb 02, 2015
Unit
`/qtl
Support
2708-2722
Resistance
2745-2755
Soybean
NCDEX Soybean Feb futures closed on positive note on Friday and
closed 2% higher on good buying support by the oil mills on lower
prices and decline in supplies from producing belts.
Soymeal exports fell by 59 per cent to 1.94 lakh tonnes (lt) in
December 2014 against 4.70 lakh tonnes in the same month a year
ago. The export of soybean meal during December 2013 was 4.71 lt.
Global update
Global Soybean production is projected at a record 314.4 million
tonnes in 2014/15 up 1.6 million on gains for Brazil and the United
States. The Brazil soybean crop projection is raised 1.5 million tons to a
record 95.5 million. Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected
at a record 532.4 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from last month.
% Change
Prev
day
WoW
0.89
0.95
MoM
-0.85
YoY
-15.01
Source: Reuters
Soybean Spread Matrix
Spot
20-Feb-15
20-Apr-15
20-May-15
Closing
3391
3405
3434
3458
20-Feb-15
14
0
-
20-Apr-15
43
29
0
-
Mustard Seed Spread Matrix
Spot
Closing
3661
20-Apr-15
-316.45
20-May-15
-245.45
As on Jan 30, 2015
20-May-15
67
53
24
0
As on Jan 30, 2015
19-Jun-15
-231.45
20-Apr-15
3345
0
71
85
20-May-15
3416
-
0
14
Outlook
19-Jun-15
3430
-
-
0
Soybean futures may trade on a mixed note on increased import duty
on edible oil and poor buying support on higher prices.
Technical Chart –Soybean
NCDEX Feb contract
Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures traded on a positive note last week and closed
0.87% higher on low good demand and expectation of lesser than
expected crop arrivals in coming months.
The acreage in the country so far is down by about 3.2% at about 63.8
lakh hectares (lh). The acreage in Rajasthan has dropped by 12.6% at
26.4 lh. Traders expect rapeseed output to drop to 7.0 million tonnes
in the 2014-15 crop year (July-June) from 7.4 million last year. There
are reports of the decline in sowing in Rajasthan.
Source: Telequote
Global updates
Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 71.94 million tons,
up 1.2 million mainly on increased production for Canada (15.6 million
tons).
Technical Chart –Mustard Seed
NCDEX Apr contract
Reports of Bug infestation in Europe may lead to 15% drop in output of
rapeseed, the region’s primary source of vegetable oil used to make
food ingredients and biodiesel. Output of rapeseed may fall to a threeyear low of 20.5 million metric tons in 2015, down from a record 24
million last year.
Outlook
Mustard seed may trade on a mixed note. Lower levels buying interest
and expectation of lower production may support the price.
Technical Levels
Valid for Feb 02, 2015
Contract
Unit
Support
Resistance
Soybean NCDEX Feb Futures
RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures
`/qtl
`/qtl
3340-3375
3280-3310
3430-3460
3365-3395
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Commodities Daily Report
nd
Monday| 02 February, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil Feb futures traded on positive note on Friday and closed
1.70 % higher on good domestic demand at lower prices and news
on higher weekly soybean export data for China.
In the month of Dec 14, there is an increase of 81 per cent import of
Crude soybean oil to 97,027 tonnes as compared to last year’s
53,500 tonnes.
It is mainly due to high prices of soybean and lesser realization for
oil and soybean meal in export market, resulted in lower crushing
and availability of domestic oil coupled with anticipated increase in
import duty by the GOI.
According to latest report of US Department of Agriculture (USDA),
the domestic consumption of soybean oil in India is likely to be at
around 3.45 million tons against 3.30 million tons last year.
Recently, the customs duty on crude oil has been increased to 7.5
per cent from 2.5 per cent earlier, while the duty on refined edible
oil has been raised to 15 per cent from 10 per cent, as per the
notification issued by the Central Board of Excise and Customs.
Market Highlights
As on Jan 30, 2015
% Change
Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX
Ref Soy oil- NCDEX
Feb
Soybean Oil- CBOTMar Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia –
Feb
CPO- MCX –
Feb
Unit
`/10 kg
Last
637.10
Prev day
-0.06
WoW
-2.96
MoM
-3.47
YoY
-8.01
`/10 kg
583.40
1.70
-2.77
-8.67
-13.01
USc/lb
30.00
1.56
-6.16
-6.16
-19.07
MYR/Tn
2154
0.33
-5.19
-5.98
-15.56
`/10 kg
434.90
2.86
-2.16
-5.54
-18.27
Source: Reuters
Refined Soy Oil SpreadMatrix
Closing
20-Feb-15
20-Apr-15
As on Jan 30, 2015
19-Jun-15
Spot
637.1
-17
-53.7
-82
20-Feb-15
620.1
0
-36.7
-65
20-Apr-15
583.4
-
0
-28.3
19-Jun-15
555.1
-
-
0
Crude Palm Oil
MCX CPO Jan. futures traded on positive note on Friday and closed
2.86 % higher taking clue from international markets. There is good
demand of CPO at lower prices.
In the month of Dec 2014, alone India imported 778,815 tonnes of
Crude palm oil which is about 9% and 12% increase m-o-m and y-o-y
respectively.
CPO Spread Matrix
As on Jan 30, 2015
30-Mar-15
Closing
30-Jan-15
27-Feb-15
30-Jan-15
424.1
0
-1.3
2
27-Feb-15
422.8
-
0
3.3
30-Mar-15
426.1
-
-
0
Technical Chart –Ref Soy Oil
NCDEX Feb contract
Palm oils make up 75% of the country's total vegetable oil imports in
Dec 14 as per the SEA data released. India meets 60% of its annual
vegetable oil demand of 17-18 million tonnes via imports.
Crude palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia supply about 85
per cent of the world's palm oil.
According to Trade Ministry, Indonesia the crude palm oil export tax
for February is kept at zero, unchanged from January. The overseas
shipment of Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivative
products last year grew 2.5 percent to 21.76 million tons. The
government's policy of cutting the export tax for the commodity to
zero in the final quarter of last year helped increase exports.
Thailand plans to import around 50,000 tonnes of crude palm oil
from February due to a domestic shortage caused by drought
according to the trade sources.
Technical Chart –Crude Palm Oil
MCX Feb contract
Outlook
Soy Oil futures and CPO prices may trade on a mixed note. Prices
may follow the international trend; however appreciation in USDINR
may pressurize the prices.
Technical Outlook
Valid for Feb 02, 2015
Contract
Unit
Support
Resistance
Soy Oil NCDEX Feb Futures
CPO MCX Feb Futures
`/qtl
`/qtl
610-614
429-432
622-626
438-442
Source: Telequote
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Commodities Daily Report
nd
Monday| 02 February, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Market Highlights
Jeera
Jeera Feb. futures traded on negative note last week and closed 1.08%
down yesterday on subdued demand and expectation of new season
crop arrivals next month. The fundamentals on Jeera is still positive
due to less production estimate amid less sowing area in the Gujarat,
the main Jeera producing state.
Jeera Spot- NCDEX
Jeera- NCDEX Feb Fut
Turmeric Spot- NCDEX
Turmeric- NCDEX Apr Fut
As on Jan 30, 2015
Unit
`/qtl
`/qtl
`/qtl
`/qtl
Last
15370
14720
7550
8028
% Change
WoW
MoM
-5.66
1.21
-9.42
-8.00
-5.16
-1.81
-5.60
-10.70
Prev
day
-0.42
-1.08
-1.38
-2.97
Production and Exports
YoY
22.35
20.46
18.94
9.37
Source: Reuters
According to Gujarat government data released on 19th Jan 15, Jeera
recorded 2.64 lakh hac, 42% less sowing compared to last year’s 4.54
lakh hac. The supplies of Jeera expected to rise in the next month due
to arrival of new season crop.
Export orders are diverted to India due to Geo-political tensions in
Syria and Turkey. .Jeera (cumin) exports have been 87,500 tonnes in
the first six months (Apr-Sep) of 2014-15, a rise of 25% from the
corresponding period of the previous (Source: Spices Board)
Outlook
Jeera futures are expected to trade on mixed note as there is reduced
demand from retailers and stockists amid adequate stock positions as
the harvesting has started in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Jeera Spread Matrix
Spot
20-Feb-15
20-Mar-15
20-Apr-15
20-Feb-15
-905
0
-
20-Mar-15
-650
255
0
-
As on Jan 30, 2015
20-Apr-15
-420
485
230
0
Closing
20-Apr-15
20-May-15
As on Jan 30, 2015
20-Jun-15
7550
8028
8102
8310
478
0
-
552
74
0
-
Closing
15370
14465
14720
14950
Turmeric Spread Matrix
Spot
20-Apr-15
20-May-15
20-Jun-15
Technical Chart – Jeera
760
282
208
0
NCDEX Feb contract
Turmeric
Turmeric Apr. futures traded on negative note on Friday and closed
2.97% down due to subdued demand from retailers and traders at
high prices. The new crop has now hit the markets in Maharashtra,
Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
There are concerns over crop loss due to cyclone ‘Hudhud’ that hit
Andhra Pradesh in Oct 2014. Demand for the commodity has been
increasing rapidly from North India and from the medicinal and
cosmetic industry.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Sowing of Turmeric in AP for the 2014-15 season is reported at 0.13
lakh ha, as against 0.1 lakh ha last year. The area in Telangana stood at
0.446 lakh ha against 0.431 lakh ha last year.
Technical Chart – Turmeric
NCDEX Apr contract
Exports in turmeric have increased by 10% to 43,000 tonnes during
Apr-Sep 2014 as compared to last year. The export target for the
2014-15 is 80,000 tonnes according to Spice Board.
Outlook
Turmeric futures may trade on a mixed to negative note on increased
supply, less spot demand and profit booking on higher levels may
restrict the gains.
Technical Outlook
Valid for Feb 02, 2015
Jeera NCDEX Feb Futures
Unit
`/qtl
Support
14190-14320
Resistance
14570-14710
Turmeric NCDEX Apr Futures
`/qtl
7760-7870
8100-8210
Source: Telequote
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Commodities Daily Report
nd
Monday| 02 February, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
Cotton complex traded on negative note on Friday. MCX Cotton Dec
Futures closed 1.91% down and NCDEX Kapas April’15 closed 1.95%
down. Domestic spot markets were stable as millers were buying as per
the requirements. The arrival pace in India has picked up as procurement
by the government agencies has increased in Maharashtra, Andhra
Pradesh and Gujarat.
The state-run Cotton Corp of India (CCI) started to sell cotton through
electronic auctions into a weak market as it struggles to store purchases
of around 50 lakh bales procured in the current crop season.
Cotton prices in China India and Pakistan have fallen by 25 to 30 per cent
and on the international market the commodity has lost nearly 75 per
cent from last year. According to Chinese Government survey, the cotton
production in China is down 2.2% and fell by 6.16 mt as cotton area
shrank nearly 3%.
Market Highlights
NCDEX Kapas Apr ‘15
MCX Cotton Feb 15
ICE Cotton Mar ‘15
Cot look A Index
As on Jan 30, 2015
Unit
`20 kgs
`/Bale
USc/Lbs
Last
731
14360
59.36
% Change
Prev. day WoW
-1.95
-0.27
-1.91
1.41
-0.35
2.77
67.3
0.00
1.97
MoM YoY
-8.34 -26.50
-8.13 -29.81
-1.51 -31.00
-3.93
-27.05
Source: Reuters
Cotton Spread Matrix
30-Jan-15
27-Feb-15
30-Mar-15
Closing
30-Jan-15
14360
14630
14850
0
-
Technical Chart - Kapas
As on Jan 30, 2015
27-Feb-15
30-Mar-15
270
0
-
490
220
0
NCDEX April 2015 contract
Domestic Production and Consumption
According to Cotton Association of India (CAI), cotton output in the
country would stand around 402 lakh bales in season 2014-15, slightly
lower than the production of the previous season when it was 407.25
lakh bales. The arrival of cotton till Jan 11 is at 168.31 lakh bales
according to CCI data which is almost 3 per cent higher compared to last
year.
The Indian Cotton Federation has estimated cotton crop for 2014-15
season (October-September) at 406 lakh bales with Gujarat top the list
with 120 lakh bales, followed by Maharashtra at 90 lakh, Telangana (45
lakh), Karnataka (33 lakh) and Seemandhra (30 lakh).
Technical Chart - Cotton
MCX Feb contract
Two successive years of the bumper harvest have contributed to the fall
in the domestic prices below MSP. Cotton procurement by the CCI has
touched 4.82 million bales highest in last six years. India’s cotton exports
have also dropped by 40 per cent year on year with prices declining up to
30 per cent for the same time period as demand from China has slowed
down in 2014-15.
Global Cotton Updates (WASDE Report)
Latest report has pegged global output up from its previous month's
estimates to 119.17 Million 480-pound Bales. World ending stocks are
now projected at 108.6 million bales. Global consumption is reduced
nearly 4 lakh bales compared to last month. China’s consumption is
lowered as mills’ response to falling domestic cotton prices continues to
be sluggish and yarn imports to date remain high.
Source: Telequote
US production rose to 161,000 bales whereas domestic mill use and
exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are now at 4.7 million.
Outlook
Cotton futures may trade on a mixed note as CCI has started to sell
procured cotton in the domestic market. Selling on higher levels may be
negative for the prices.
Technical Outlook
Contract
Valid for Feb 02, 2015
Unit
Support
Resistance
Kapas NCDEX April ’15 Fut
`/20 kgs
717-724
742-753
Cotton MCX Feb Futures
`/bale
14360-14510
14780-15920
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