1. Art and Diseño

Commodities & Currencies
Weekly Tracker
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Contents
Returns
• Non Agri Commodities
• Currencies
• Agri Commodities
Non-Agri Commodities
• Gold
• Silver
• Copper
• Crude Oil
Currencies – DX, Euro, INR
Agri Commodities
• Chana
• Turmeric
• Jeera
• Soybean
• Refine Soy Oil & CPO
• Cotton
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Global Equities Performance (%)
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.0
(0.3)
(1.0)
(0.3)
(0.8)
(1.2)
(1.4)
(2.0)
(3.0)
(2.8)
(2.9)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Currencies Weekly Performance (%)
2.0
1.7
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.0
(0.1)
(0.5)
(1.0)
(0.3)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance (%)
6.5
6.0
2.0
(2.0)
(6.0)
(10.0)
5.8
1.5
1.3
1.2
(0.5)
(0.9)
(5.6)
(9.9)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Agri-Commodity Weekly Performance (%)
8
6.6
6
4
2
2.6
2.1
1.4
1.2
0.6
0
(2)
(0.9)
(4)
(6)
(8)
Source: Reuters, Angel Commodity Research
(1.5)
(1.7)
(2.3)
(2.8)
(3.6)
(4.4)
(6.0)
(6.8)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Gold
Weekly Price Performance
•
Spot gold prices traded volatile last week with prices touching an high of
$1298.76 and low of $1251.86 ranging almost around $50 band
•
The Federal Reserve in its meeting last week said it will remain "patient" with
regard to any interest rate increase decisions.
•
After its first policy-setting meeting of the year, the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) said the U.S. economy is on track despite turmoil in other
markets around the world.
•
The statement no longer contains the closely watched "considerable time"
phrase in connection to interest rates.
•
The Fed said the U.S. economy was expanding "at a solid pace" but reiterated
it would be patient in deciding when to increase benchmark borrowing costs.
•
The prospect of higher U.S. rates could encourage investors to pull back from
the metal, a non-interest-bearing asset.
•
In the international markets, spot gold prices declined by 0.88 percent last
week and closed at $1282.8/oz
•
On the MCX, gold prices rose marginally by 0.11 percent last week and closed
at Rs.27895/10 gms.
SPDR Gold Holdings
•
Last week, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust rose by 14.93 tonnes to 758.37
tonnes.
•
Spot Gold Vs Dollar Index
90.0
1,650
85.0
1,550
1,450
80.0
1,350
75.0
1,250
1,150
70.0
Spot Gold -$/oz
US Dollar Index
MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance
35,000
1,900
34,000
1,800
33,000
1,700
32,000
31,000
1,600
30,000
1,500
29,000
1,400
28,000
1,300
27,000
26,000
1,200
25,000
1,100
On a year-to-date basis, holdings have declined by 39.85 tonnes, or around 5
percent.
MCX- Near Month Gold Futures - Rs/10 gms
Comex Gold Futures - $/oz
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Gold
CFTC holdings:
•
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the week to January 27th showed that investors
have raised their net longs positions in gold by 21961 contracts to 167693 contracts, up by 15.1 percent week on week.
India overtook China as the world’s biggest gold consumer in 2014
•
India overtook China as the world's biggest gold consumer in 2014 as global physical demand fell, an industry report showed last week,
forecasting that prices that have declined for the last two years would bottom out this year.
•
Chinese gold demand slid by more than a third last year to a four-year low of 866 tonnes, while the country's scrap gold supply rose 21
percent to an unprecedented 182 tonnes, the report by GFMS analysts at Thomson Reuters showed.
Outlook
•
Investment demand seems to have gained grounds in the recent weeks with an addition of gold holdings in the SPDR gold trust.
•
Uncertainty in Greece with regards to its new government and the austerity policies required for Greece to be a part of the Euro-zone will
bring in the avenues of safe haven demand and support prices.
•
The FOMC meeting last week said that the economic optimism in the US is growing, although it maintains a patient stance on rise in the
interest rates is a key development that markets will have to closely watch for.
•
Money managers have raised their long side bets on the commodity in the recent week acting as a positive factor for prices.
•
Spot gold prices in the international markets can trade in the range of $1270-1300/oz.
•
In the Indian markets, we expect gold prices to trade in the range of Rs.27500-28300 mark/10gms.
Weekly Technical Levels – Trend sideways
•
Spot Gold : Support $1270/$1248 Resistance $1307/$1320. (CMP: $1279.20)
•
MCX Gold :Support Rs.27500/27000 Resistance Rs.28300/28600 (CMP: Rs.27915)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Silver
Weekly Price Performance
•
Last week, spot silver prices in the international markets trade lower for most of
trading sessions
•
Profit booking at higher levels, decline in gold prices and declining speculative
activity exerted downside pressure
•
Weakness in the Indian rupee cushioned downfall in the Indian markets
•
Spot silver prices in the international markets declined by 5.64 percent and closed
at $17.22/oz.
•
On the MCX, silver prices declined by 4.65 percent and closed at Rs.38105/kg.
45.0
Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index
40.0
90.0
35.0
85.0
30.0
80.0
25.0
75.0
20.0
15.0
CFTC Holdings
•
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders
report in the week to January 27th reported that net longs rose by 6540 contracts
to 40164 contracts, up by 19.45% week on week.
Outlook
•
Negative momentum in gold prices will exert downside pressure on silver.
•
On the contrary, money managers have been raising net long positions for five
continuous weeks in a row which will act as a positive factor for prices.
•
Weakness in copper prices will be a drag to silver prices.
•
International silver prices might head lower towards $16.8/oz.
•
In the Indian markets, silver prices is expected to trade lower taking cues from
weak international markets and possibly correct lower towards Rs.36500 mark.
Weekly Technical Levels –Trend Sideways to Down
•
Spot Silver: Support $16.80/$16.40 Resistance $17.6/$18.00 (CMP: $17.10)
•
Sell MCX Silver March between 38800 – 38900, SL- 39800, Target – 37200 /
36800(CMP: Rs.37881)
95.0
70.0
Spot Silver -$/oz
US Dollar Index
MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance
58,500
34
32
30
53,500
28
26
48,500
24
22
43,500
20
18
38,500
16
33,500
14
MCX- Near Month Silver Futures - Rs/ kg
Comex Silver Futures - $/oz
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Copper
Weekly Price Performance
•
LME Copper prices declined by 0.5 percent last week and hovered near five-and-a-halfyear lows on concerns over slowing growth and weak demand in top consumer China
as well as rising metal inventories. Data showed China's factory profits grew at their
weakest rate in two years in 2014 as economic growth slipped to a 24-year low,
underscoring the challenges the country faces.
•
Further, News that top metals consumer China plans to cut its economic growth target
to the lowest in 11 years at around 7 percent in 2015 also hurt sentiment. Also, the
Federal Reserve signaled it would keep short-term interest rates near zero at least until
midyear, while providing a relatively upbeat assessment of current US growth and
labour market conditions.
•
MCX copper prices rose by 0.4 percent last week and closed at Rs.342.9/kg owing to
Rupee depreciation.
LME and MCX Copper Price Performance
525
8,300
505
485
7,800
465
445
7,300
425
405
6,800
385
6,300
365
LME Copper Future ($/tonne)
MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)
LME Copper v/s LME Inventory
CFTC Holdings
•
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week to January 27 have raised their
net short position by 4971 contracts to 12976 contracts.
Outlook
•
We expect LME Copper prices to trade sideways after factory growth in China shrank
for the first time in more than two years, thereby strengthening calls for more
aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus to boost the economy.
•
However, estimates of weak employment data from the US will restrict sharp upside.
•
In the Indian markets, Copper prices will trade on a sideways note in line with trend in
the international markets.
Technically we recommend – Trend Sideways
•
LME Copper: Support $5420/$5380 Resistance $5590/$5740. (CMP: $5516)
•
Buy MCX Copper Feb between 336 – 337, SL – 331, Target – 347 / 350(CMP: Rs.343.85)
700,000
8,300
600,000
7,800
500,000
400,000
7,300
300,000
6,800
200,000
100,000
6,300
Copper LME Inventory (tonnes)
LME Copper Future ($/tonne)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Crude Oil
Weekly Price Performance
•
Oil markets traded higher last week, after preliminary U.S. data showed weekly jobless
claims at a near 15-year low, indicating further strength in the world's largest economy
•
•
•
•
•
In the mid week, prices declined after the government reported record-high
inventories in the United States that raised anxieties about the global oil glut that had
pressured the market since last summer.
Oil prices roared back from six-year lows last Friday, rocketing more than 8 percent as
a record weekly decline in U.S. oil drilling fueled a frenzy of short-covering.
In a rally that may spur speculation that a seven-month price collapse has ended,
global benchmark Brent crude shot up to more than $53 per barrel, its highest in more
than three weeks in its biggest one-day gain since 2009.
WTI oil prices in the international markets rose by 5.81 percent and closed at
$48.24/bbl.
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
7,700
120.0
6,700
100.0
5,700
4,700
80.0
3,700
60.0
2,700
1,700
40.0
MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl)
NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)
On the MCX, crude prices rose by 0.63 percent and closed at Rs.2855/bbl.
Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)
400
Oil Inventories
395
•
390
•
The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, said after the market's
close that U.S. oil stockpiles surged by nearly 13 million barrels last week. That would
add to the previous week's build of over 10 million barrels, the biggest in 14 years,
which had already brought inventories to the highest level on record for this time of
year
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said domestic crude oil stocks rose by
almost 9 million barrels last week to reach nearly 407 million, their highest since the
government began keeping records in 1982. The EIA report citing positives like a near 3
million barrel drop in gasoline stocks and almost 4 million barrel decline in diesel and
heating oil inventories.
397.5
397.6
384
385
391.3
388.6
385.4
383.2
377.5
380
375.9
375.21
370.54
375
369.1
370
363.76
365
360
355
350
395.7
392
394.1
361.3
370
363.8
364.2
355.6
351.2
374
368.3
366.3
358.4
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
CFTC Holdings
•
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report in the week to January 27th reported that net longs in
crude oil have increased by 3042 contracts to 228968 contracts, up by 1.35% week on week.
US driller reduce their spending on exploration
•
•
ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Corp slashed exploration spending plans for this year, as the third- and fourth-largest U.S. oil
companies attempt to cope with a steep slide in crude prices.
The cuts follow similar steps by rival Hess Corp ,while Royal Dutch Shell , Europe's largest oil company, said last week that it would reduce
its spending the next three years by $15 billion.
Outlook
•
Money managers have increased their net long positions last week, although major fundamentals remain bearish for the commodity.
•
US drillers reducing their spending on exploration of crude indicates that crude output might slowdown in the coming months.
•
Also, refineries in the US remain shut on account of union strikes in turn positive for WTI crude prices.
•
The monetary easing by the ECB might be a push factor for incremental demand for crude in the coming months.
•
Since, oil prices are reduced by half, markets are trying to bargain hunt this commodity.
•
Since cost of oil production in the US stands at $65, the operations would be unsustainable at current levels ($45), hence prices will have
to rise in the near term.
•
In the international markets, crude prices are expected to trade higher towards $49 mark.
•
On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade higher and possibly headed towards Rs.2950mark.
Weekly Technical Levels – Sideways to Up
•
Nymex Crude: Support $46.40/44.50 Resistance $49.00/50.30 (CMP: $47.20)
•
MCX Crude: Buy MCX Crude oil Feb between 2780 – 2790, SL – 2700, Target – 2930 / 2950 (CMP: Rs.2935)
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Rupee
Weekly Price Performance
•
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.9 percent last week owing to month-end dollar
demand by importers. Also, dollar inflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were
being absorbed by state-owned banks. In addition, investors booked profits ahead of the
expiry of January derivative contracts.
•
However, sharp losses were cushioned owing to fresh dollar selling by exporters tracking
heavy foreign capital inflows amid strong equity market. The currency touched an
weekly low of 62.02 and closed at 62.01 on Friday.
Foreign Inflows
•
For the month of January 2015, FII inflows in equities totaled at Rs.1825.90 crores
($296.89 million) as on 30th January 2015.
•
Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.1825.90 crores ($296.89 million) as on
30th January 2015.
India’s HSBC manufacturing PMI declines; new orders growth still on track
•
India’s manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 in January from December's 54.5 levels.
•
Despite falling in January, latest data signaled sustained growth of India's
manufacturing economy at the start of 2015, with output and new orders rising
simultaneously for the fifteenth consecutive month.
Outlook
•
We expect Indian Rupee to trade on a sideways note during the week as domestic
markets will shift their focus on RBI monetary policy statement scheduled on Feb 3.
•
Also, robust foreign capital inflows into equity market will support the currency.
Weekly Technical Levels
•
USDINR: Support 61.80/61.50 Resistance 62.50/63.00. (CMP: 61.86)
•
Buy MCXSX/NSE USDINR Feb between 61.80 – 61.90, SL – 61.50, Target – 62.50/62.60.
$/INR - Spot
69.0
67.0
65.0
63.0
61.0
59.0
57.0
55.0
53.0
Economic Data to be released during the
week
HSBC Markit Services PMI – 3rd Feb’15
Time : 10:30pm
Prior: 51.1
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Dollar Index
Weekly Price Performance
•
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded lower by 0.1 percent last week as weak business
spending and a wider trade deficit pushed GDP lower in the last quarter of 2014.
•
Also, speculation the victorious Syriza party in Greek elections will pursue its antiausterity agenda without forcing an exit from the currency bloc coupled with mixed
economic data from the nation acted as negative factors.
•
However, sharp losses were cushioned against the other major currencies on Thursday,
after the Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates could start to rise around mid-year.
The currency touched a weekly low of 93.96 and closed at 95.00 on Friday.
US economic data
•
US Advance GDP fell to 2.6 percent in the quarter ended December from 5 percent in
the prior quarter. Chicago PMI rose to 59.4-mark in Jan’15 from 58.3 levels in Dec’14.
•
U.S. consumer confidence improved to an eight-year high of 102.9 this month from a
reading of 93.1 in December. New home sales climbed to 481,000 units in Dec’14 from
438,000 units in Nov’14. Core durable goods orders declined by 0.8% in December.
•
US Unemployment Claims fell to 265,000 in the last week from 308,000 in the prior
week. Pending Home Sales plunged by 3.7 percent in December as against a gain of 0.6
percent in November.
Outlook
•
We expect the dollar index to trade on a sideways note as risk in risk aversion in the
markets owing to Grexit concerns will be supportive.
•
While on the other hand, estimates of weak manufacturing and employment data from
the US will drag the currency lower.
Weekly Technical Levels
•
Dollar Index (DX) : Support 93.80/92.80 Resistance 95.60/96.50. (CMP: 94.75)
US Dollar Index
93.0
91.0
89.0
87.0
85.0
83.0
81.0
79.0
Economic data to be released during the
week:
ISM Manufacturing PMI – 2nd Feb’15
Time: 8:30 pm
Previous : 55.5, Forecast : 54.9
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change– 4th
Feb’15
Time: 6:45pm
Previous : 241K, Forecast : 221K
Non-Farm Employment Change – 6th Feb’15
Time: 7:00pm
Previous : 252K, Forecast : 231K
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Euro
Weekly Price Performance
•
The Euro gained 0.7 percent last week as investors are hopeful that the leftwing Syriza party leader, Alexis Tsipras, is willing to negotiate, easing concern
that a confrontation with its international creditors could lead Greece to leave
the Euro.
•
Also, Germany's Federal Statistics Office said the number of unemployed
people declined for the fourth consecutive month in January and
unemployment rate hit a record-low 6.5% in January, down from 6.6% in
December, in line with expectations.
•
However, strength in the DX after the Federal Reserve’s policy-making
committee signaled it would keep interest rates near zero at least until June
exerted pressure. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.1422 and closed at
1.1286 on Friday.
Economic data from the Euro Zone
•
Euro zone’s CPI Flash Estimate fell by 0.6 percent in January as against a decline
of 0.2 percent in December.
•
French Consumer Spending jumped by 1.5 percent in December as compared to
a rise of 0.2 percent in November.
•
German Retail Sales rose by 0.2 percent in December as against a rise of 0.9
percent in November.
Outlook
•
The Euro will trade on a negative note over the week as uncertainty regarding
Greece exit coupled with estimates of mixed economic data from the region
will exert pressure on the currency.
Weekly Technical Levels
•
EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.1120/1.0950 Resistance 1.1450/1.1600. (CMP:
1.13)
Euro/$ - Spot
1.4
1.36
1.32
1.28
1.24
1.2
Economic Data to be released during the week:
Spanish Unemployment Change – 2nd Feb’15
Time: 1:30pm
Previous: -64.4K, forecast: -32.4K
Retail Sales m/m– 4th Feb’15
Time: 3:30pm
Previous: 0.6 percent, forecast: -0.1 percent
German Factory Orders m/m – 5th Feb’15
Time: 12:30pm
Previous: -2.4 percent, forecast: 1.4 percent
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Chana
Weekly Price Performance
•
During last week, Chana Feb. futures traded on negative note, down 4.42 per cent due
to sluggish demand on expectation of new crop arrivals in less than a month’s time.
The prices have made a high of 3481 levels and low of 3262 levels and close on 3286.
Overall sentiments are mixed for Chana due good demand, lower sowing and expected
lower output in 2014-15.
Fundamentals
•
According to latest estimates as on Jan 22, 2014, coverage under Rabi pulses has
reached 133.55 lakh hectares (lh), 11% lower as compared to previous year. Chana has
been sown over 81.97 lh, 17% lower against 98.68 lh sown during the same period
previous year.
•
Alarmed by the adverse impact of slow progress in sowing of chana during the current
rabi season, the government has decided not to impose a proposed 10% import duty
on 'chana' (gram) till March 2015.
•
The CCEA has set Chana MSP for 2014-15 season at Rs. 3175/qtl. from Rs. 3100 last
year.
•
Canada chickpeas/chana production for 2014 is estimated at 123 thousand tonnes
which is 27.39% lower than previous year while 7.66% lower than previous estimates
released in September 2014.
Outlook
•
Chana futures are expected to trade on a mixed note due to restricted supply, cheap
imports and lower acreage during the current rabi season. The market may have
corrections during the next week due to profit bookings.
Weekly Strategy
•
Sell NCDEX Chana Feb between 3300 – 3320, SL – 3400, Target- 3220 / 3210 (cmp –
3270)
NCDEX Chana Feb.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Turmeric
Weekly Price Performance
•
Turmeric Apr. futures traded on a negative note down by 9.25%. Market witnessed
four successive days drop last week due to subdued demand from retailers and traders
at high prices. The new crop has now hit the markets in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh
and Karnataka. During the week the prices have made high of Rs 9240 per quintal and
low of Rs 8164 per quintal.
Fundamentals
•
As per the market sources, the total production of turmeric in the current year is
expected to be around 35-37 lakh bags against 52 lakh bags of the last year. The new
crop has now hitting the markets in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka
•
Exports between Apr-Sep 2014 stood at 43,000 tn, up 9% compared to 39,200 tn. in
Apr-Sep2013. (Source: Spices Board).
•
Sowing of Turmeric in AP for the 2014-15 season is reported at 0.13 lakh ha, as against
0.1 lakh. The area in Telangana stood at 0.446 lakh ha against 0.431 lakh ha last year.
•
In the last week (17th - 23rd Jan, 2015), more than 2000 tonnes arrivals were recorded
across the country. Highest arrivals are recorded in Karnataka (622 tonnes) followed
Maharashtra (503 tonnes) and West Bengal (472 tonnes). (Source: Agmarknet)
Outlook
•
Turmeric futures may trade on a mixed note. Good arrivals and subdued demand from
retailers and traders at high prices may drag the prices.
Weekly Strategy
•
Sell NCDEX Turmeric Apr between 8100 – 8150, SL – 8300, Target – 7700 / 7650 (CMP
– 7960)
NCDEX Turmeric Apr.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Tuesday | January 27, 2015
Jeera
Weekly Price Performance
•
Last week Jeera Feb. futures were volatile and closed on a negative note down by 3.8%
as market participants has off loaded their positions for profit booking. The weekly
prices moved up to the high of Rs 17290 per Qtl and touch low of Rs 15325 per qtl.
Fundamentals
•
According to Gujarat government data releases on 19th Jan 15, Jeera recorded 2.67
lakh hac which is 41.3% less sowing compared to last year’s 4.55 lakh hac. Sowing of
the spice has almost over both in Gujarat and Rajasthan reported lower acreage.
•
Last year production of jeera in India was 55 lakh bags (around 3 lakh tons). Around 35
lakh bags stocks from this year crop has come to the market so far.
•
Exports of Jeera between Apr-Sep 2014 stood at 87500 tn, up 24% as against 70,243 tn
against same time last year. (Source: Spices Board).
•
Geo-political tensions in Syria, one of the largest exporters of the spice has led to good
demand for Indian Jeera from the overseas markets.
Outlook
•
Jeera futures are expected to trade on a positive note but profit book on higher levels
are also expected. Lower acreage, high export demand and steady domestic demand
may pushed up prices.
Weekly Strategy
•
Sell NCDEX Jeera Feb between 15200 –15250, SL – 15500, Target –14600/14500. (CMP
– 14900)
NCDEX Jeera Feb.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Tuesday | January 27, 2015
Soybean & Refine Soy Oil
Weekly price performance
•
Soybean Feb futures last week traded in a very narrow range Rs 3320 - 3490/ quintal
and closed on negative by 1.54% due on ample supply of soybean in the spot market
and lower demand for soy oil and soy meal in the international market. Ref soy oil also
closed down by 8.77% last week.
NCDEX Soybean Feb.
Fundamentals
•
In 2014/15, Soybean sowing in country reported a decline of 12 lakh hac to 112 lakh
and production estimated to decline by 3.5% to 9.17 mt compared to 9.5 mt last year.
•
As per Solvent Extractors’ Association data, total import of vegetable oils jumped 26%
in Nov 2014. which stood at 1.2 mt compared to 944,309 tonnes last year.
•
December 2014 soymeal exports decline by almost 59% to 1.94 mt as compare to 4.7
mt exported during same month last year.
Global Update
•
Global Soybean production is projected at a record 312.8 mt in Dec 2014/15 up 9.6%
compared to 2013/14 estimates. China is projected to import more than 2.7 billion
bushels (2700 million or 73.48 Million tonnes) in 2014/15.
•
Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from
last month and 23.5 million above year-earlier levels.
Outlook
•
Soybean and Ref soy oil futures may trade on a mixed note. Expectation of higher
global oil seed production and lower world demand may pressurize the prices.
Weekly Strategy
•
Sell NCDEX Soybean Feb between 3350 – 3380, SL – 3480, Target – 3200 / 3150 (CMP –
3315)
•
Sell NCDEX Ref Soya Oil Feb between 620 – 625, SL – 640, Target – 595/ 590 (CMP –
613)
NCDEX Ref Soy Oil Feb.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Tuesday | January 27, 2015
Cotton
Weekly Price Performance
•
As Expected in the last week prices were closed on a negative note on increasing
arrivals of cotton in physical market and lower export demand. NCDEX Kapas and
MCX Cotton Futures settled 5.6% lower and 6.1% lower respectively w-o-w.
Fundamentals
•
Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) has estimated production at 400 lakh bales, while,
Cotton Association of India (CAI) and Indian Cotton Federation has projected over
400 lakh bales for 2014-15 marketing season.
•
Domestic consumption is estimated at 306 lakh bales during the current fiscal.
•
State-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has procured 50 lakh bales of cotton so
far this year at the MSP from key growing states.
Global Cotton Updates
•
World production is estimated to 26.1 million tons, down 1%, due to reductions in
China and the Southern Hemisphere.
•
A world production surplus of 1.7 million tons is still anticipated, despite expected
growth in cotton consumption. World ending stocks in 2014/15 estimated to 21.3
million tons, up 9% from 2013/14.
•
According to Chinese Government survey, the cotton production is down 2.2% and
fell by 6.16 mt as cotton area shrank nearly 3%.
Outlook
•
Cotton futures may trade on a mixed note to negative. Lower levels buying interest
may supports the prices, however international weak trend may pressurize the
prices.
Weekly Levels
•
MCX Cotton Jan Trend Down, S1- 13800 , S2- 13400, R1– 14300, R2- 14700. (cmp –
14070)
•
NCDEX Kapas April Trend Down. S1- 710, S2 – 695, R1 – 750, R2 – 765 (cmp – 723)
NCDEX Kapas Apr’15.
MCX Cotton Jan.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Chana
Weekly Price Performance
•
During last week, Chana Feb. futures traded on positive note and closed 6.6 per cent
higher due to good support at lower levels by the market participants. The prices have
made a high of 3503 levels and low of 3286 levels and close on 3503. Overall
sentiments are mixed for Chana due good demand, lower sowing and expected lower
output in 2014-15.
Fundamentals
•
According to latest estimates as on Jan 30, 2014, coverage under Rabi pulses has
reached 138.68 lakh hectares (lh), 10% lower as compared to previous year. Chana has
been sown over 83.93 lh, 15.5% lower against 99.27 lh sown during the same period
previous year.
•
The area reported by the respective state agriculture department, under chana decline
by 17%, 28% and 32% respectively in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat till last
week of Jan 2015.
•
According to Dept of Commerce, 154.72 thousand tonnes of Chick pea is imported in
India during April-October 2014.
•
The imports of pulses were reported around 191322.263 tonne for the reported period
(Jan.19-25,2015) mainly from Australia, Canada, USA, Myanmar, Russia, Uzbekistan,
Afghanistan, China and Ethiopia.(Source-IBIS)
Outlook
•
Chana futures are expected to trade on a mixed note due to restricted supply, cheap
imports and lower acreage during the current rabi season. The market may have
corrections during the next week due to profit bookings.
Weekly Strategy
•
NCDEX Chana Feb, Support – 3450 / 3300, Resistance – 3650 / 3750 (cmp – 3500)
NCDEX Chana Feb.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Turmeric
Weekly Price Performance
•
Turmeric Apr. futures traded on a negative note down by 1.50%. Market witnessed a
steep drop last week to Rs 7716 per quintal due to new crop arrivals, subdued to
demand from retailers and traders at high prices. The new crop has now hit the
markets in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. During the week the prices
have made high of Rs 8470 per quintal.
Fundamentals
•
As per the market sources, the total production of turmeric in the current year is
expected to be around 35-37 lakh bags against 52 lakh bags of the last year. The new
crop has now hitting the markets in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka
•
For the new season crop, turmeric traders have received enquiries from upcountry for
quality turmeric.
•
Turmeric crop reported damaged in Nizamabad and Erode, the major growing regions.
(Source: Agriwatch)
•
In the last week (23rd - 30th Jan, 2015), more than 1700 tonnes arrivals were recorded
across the country. Highest arrivals are recorded in Karnataka (614 tonnes) followed
West Bengal (388 tonnes) and Tamil Nadu (250 tonnes). (Source: Agmarknet)
Outlook
•
Turmeric futures may trade on a mixed note. Good arrivals and subdued demand from
retailers and traders at high prices may drag the prices.
Weekly Strategy
•
Sell NCDEX Turmeric Apr between 8100 – 8150, SL – 8300, Target – 7700 / 7650 (CMP
– 8020)
NCDEX Turmeric Apr.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Jeera
Weekly Price Performance
•
Last week Jeera Feb. futures were volatile and closed on a negative note down by 6.0%
as market participants has off loaded their positions on expectation of the new crop to
hit the market next. The weekly prices opened at Rs 15900 per quintal moved up to the
high of Rs 16090 per Qtl and touch low of Rs 14365 per qtl.
Fundamentals
•
According to Gujarat government data releases on 19th Jan 15, Jeera recorded 2.67
lakh hac which is 41.3% less sowing compared to last year’s 4.55 lakh hac. Sowing of
the spice has almost over both in Gujarat and Rajasthan reported lower acreage.
•
Last year production of jeera in India was 55 lakh bags (around 3 lakh tons). Around 35
lakh bags stocks from this year crop has come to the market so far.
•
Exports of Jeera between Apr-Sep 2014 stood at 87500 tn, up 24% as against 70,243 tn
against same time last year. (Source: Spices Board).
•
Geo-political tensions in Syria, one of the largest exporters of the spice has led to good
demand for Indian Jeera from the overseas markets.
Outlook
•
Jeera futures are expected to trade on a mixed note as demand may be weak on
expectation of prices to fall more. Export enquiries at lower level and higher supply
during the next month may pressured jeera price. Lower acreage, high export demand
and steady domestic demand may pushed up prices.
Weekly Strategy
•
Buy NCDEX Jeera Feb between 14400 – 14450, SL – 14100, Target –15000/15200.
(CMP – 14650)
NCDEX Jeera Feb.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Soybean & Refine Soy Oil
Weekly price performance
•
Soybean Feb futures last week traded on positive note and closed 2.2% higher on good
demand from the stockists and oil millers on lower prices and fall in supplies in the
spot market. Ref soy oil also closed higher by 0.6% last week.
NCDEX Soybean Feb.
Fundamentals
•
As per Solvent Extractors’ Association data, total import of vegetable oils jumped 26%
in Nov 2014. which stood at 1.2 mt compared to 944,309 tonnes last year.
•
December 2014 soymeal exports decline by almost 59% to 1.94 mt as compare to 4.7
mt exported during same month last year.
•
In 2014/15, Soybean sowing in country reported a decline of 12 lakh hac to 112 lakh
and production estimated to decline by 3.5% to 9.17 mt compared to 9.5 mt last year.
Global Update
•
Global Soybean production is projected at a record 312.8 mt in Dec 2014/15 up 9.6%
compared to 2013/14 estimates. China is projected to import more than 2.7 billion
bushels (2700 million or 73.48 Million tonnes) in 2014/15.
•
Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from
last month and 23.5 million above year-earlier levels.
Outlook
•
Soybean and Ref soy oil futures may trade on a mixed note. Expectation of higher
global oil seed production and lower world demand may pressurize the prices but good
domestic demand may keep prices at higher levels.
Weekly Strategy
•
Buy NCDEX Soybean Feb between 3350 – 3380, SL – 3280, Target – 3500 / 3550 (CMP –
3415)
•
Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil Feb between 615 – 620, SL – 600, Target – 650/ 655 (CMP –
625)
NCDEX Ref Soy Oil Feb.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | February 2, 2015
Cotton
Weekly Price Performance
•
In the last week, prices were closed on a positive note as there is good demand for
quality cotton at lower prices. NCDEX Kapas and MCX Cotton Futures settled 2.6%
higher and 1.4% higher respectively w-o-w. India's Cotton exports in December2014 has grew to US$ 816.81 M, a increase of 19.15% compared to November
2014 according to infodriveindia.
Fundamentals
•
Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) has estimated production at 400 lakh bales, while,
Cotton Association of India (CAI) and Indian Cotton Federation has projected over
400 lakh bales for 2014-15 marketing season. Domestic consumption is estimated
at 306 lakh bales during the current fiscal. State-run Cotton Corporation of India
(CCI) has procured 50 lakh bales of cotton so far this year at the MSP from key
growing states.
Global Cotton Updates
•
World production is estimated to 26.1 million tons, down 1%, due to reductions in
China and the Southern Hemisphere. A world production surplus of 1.7 million tons
is still anticipated, despite expected growth in cotton consumption. World ending
stocks in 2014/15 estimated to 21.3 million tons, up 9% from 2013/14. According
to Chinese Government survey, the cotton production is down 2.2% and fell by 6.16
mt as cotton area shrank nearly 3%.
Outlook
•
Cotton futures may trade on a mixed note. Lower levels buying interest may
supports the prices, however international weak trend may pressurize the prices.
Weekly Levels
•
MCX Cotton Feb Trend Down, S1- 14200 , S2- 13700, R1– 15000, R2- 15400. (cmp –
14640)
•
NCDEX Kapas April Trend Sideways, S1- 710, S2 – 695, R1 – 750, R2 – 765 (cmp –
734)
NCDEX Kapas Apr’15.
MCX Cotton Feb.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | January 27, 2015
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