1. Art and Diseño

Commodities Daily Report
th
Wednesday| 28 January, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Content
Chana
Sugar
Oilseeds
Edible Oils
Spices
Cotton
Prepared by
Anuj Gupta – A.V.P - Research
[email protected]
(011) 49165954
Ritesh Kumar Sahu – Analyst
[email protected]
(022) 2921 2000 (Ext 6165)
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and
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Commodities Daily Report
th
Wednesday| 28 January, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Chana
NCDEX Chana Feb. futures traded on positive note on yesterday and
closed 1.07% higher due to good support on the lower levels by the
market participants. There is an expectation of new crop arrivals in less
than a month’s time. Overall sentiments look mixed for Chana amid
expected lower output and duty-free export allowed till Mar 2015.
As per the Govt data, Chana has been sown over 81.98 lakh hectares
which is less 16.5 % As on Jan 27, 2015 as compared to last year’s 98.16
lakh hac.
The Weather so far has been conducive to the growth of Chana crop in
the growing states. Considering favorable weather conditions in the
coming days and thereby a normal yield, we expect Chana production to
hover around 84-86 lakh tonnes in 2014-15.
(Source –
KJCommoditynews.com)
Market Highlights
As on Jan 27, 2015
% change
Unit
`/qtl
`/qtl
Chana Spot - NCDEX
Chana- NCDEX Feb Fut
Last
3380
3480
Prev day
0.70
1.07
WoW
-0.86
2.05
MoM
-2.72
-1.28
YoY
14.10
8.99
Source: Reuters
Spread Matrix
Closing
3380.2
3307
3480
3520
Spot
20-Feb-15
20-Apr-15
20-May-15
As on Jan 27, 2015
20-Apr-15
20-May-15
99.8
139.8
173
213
0
40
0
20-Feb-15
-73.2
0
-
Technical Chart - Chana
NCDEX Feb contract
Market Highlights
As on Jan 27, 2015
Outlook
Chana futures are expected to trade mixed in the coming days due to low
supplies in spot market and new crop to hit the local mandi in less than a
month’s time.
Technical Levels
Contract
Chana NCDEX Feb Futures
Valid for Jan 28, 2015
Unit
`/qtl
Support
Resistance
3240-3270
3335-3370
Source: Telequote
Sugar
Sugar Mar. futures traded on a positive note largely due to fresh
positions created by the market participants amid good support at the
lower prices and expectation of export subsidy to be announced by the
Govt. on raw sugar.
Sugar production has reached 10.3 million tonnes till Jan 15 for the 201415 season, as against 8.65 million tonnes in the year-ago, a rise of 19%.
Till Jan 15, 494 sugar mills were operating in the country as against 486
sugar mills in a year ago.
The sugar output is predicted at 25.5mn tonnes in 2014-15 higher than
the consumption of 23mn tons. As per ISMA the surplus sugar of around
20 lakh tons may observe in 2014-15 season.
At present, sugar mills are selling sugar at Rs 2,450-2,500 per quintal in
Maharashtra and at Rs 2,600-2,650 per quintal in Uttar Pradesh. Sugar
recovery was also higher at 9.25 per cent till December 2014, as against
8.75 per cent in the same period last year.
Unit
Sugar SpotNCDEX
Sugar M- NCDEX
Mar Fut
Sugar No 5- LiffeMar Fut
Sugar No 11-ICE
Mar Fut
Last
Prev. day
WoW
MoM
% Change
YoY
`/qtl
2975
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.13
`/qtl
2754
2.34
0.47
1.74
3.22
$/tonne
394
0.15
-0.83
-
-2.11
$/tonne
336.89
-0.07
-
3.13
2.43
Source: Reuters
Sugar Spread Matrix
Spot
20-Mar-15
20-May-15
20-Jul-15
Closing
2975
2754
2825
2886
Technical Chart – Sugar M
20-Mar-15
-221
0
-
20-May-15
-150
71
0
-
As on Jan 27, 2015
20-Jul-15
-89
132
61
0
NCDEX March contract
Global Sugar Updates
In 2014-15, Rabobank has forecasted a decline of 1.8 million tonnes of
global sugar supplies in 2014/15. In Australia, drier weather is likely to
result in lower sugar production in the year ahead due to the prospect of
an El Nino weather event. China's sugar production predicted to decline
12% against the backdrop of a 4% rise in demand.
According to ABARE, Dec quarterly forecast, Australian raw sugar exports
would rise 6 % in 2014–15 to 3.3 mt, up 7%, with higher volumes more
than offsetting the impact of lower prices.
Source: Telequote
According to International Sugar Organization, the world stock has
reached 76.6 mn tonnes as of the end of 2015-16, equivalent to 42.8% of
world annual consumption.
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Commodities Daily Report
th
Wednesday| 28 January, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Outlook
Sugar futures may trade on a mixed note to positive note, expectation
of export subsidy and positive international movement may support
the prices however crushing starting in producing areas and ample
supplies may pressurize the prices.
Technical Outlook
Contract
Sugar NCDEX Mar Futures
Valid for Jan 28, 2015
Unit
`/qtl
Support
2720-2735
Resistance
2775-2795
Soybean
Market Highlights
As on Jan 27, 2015
Unit
% Change
Prev
day
WoW
-0.69
-3.60
Soybean Spot- NCDEX
`/qtl
Last
3295
Soybean- NCDEX Feb Fut
`/qtl
3383
0.74
USc/Bsh
981
0.18
RM Seed Spot- NCDEX
`/qtl
3977
RM Seed- NCDEX Apr Fut
`/qtl
3428
Soybean-CBOT Feb Fut
MoM
-3.15
YoY
-17.85
-2.23
-2.56
-11.39
-
-6.90
-22.80
-1.14
-1.60
-8.00
12.08
0.50
-1.18
-2.53
0.38
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Soybean Feb futures traded on positive note yesterday and
closed 0.74% higher, after three consecutive day fall last week on good
buying support by the oil mills on lower prices and decline in supplies
from producing belts.
In India, Soymeal exports fell by 59 per cent to 1.94 lakh tonnes (lt) in
December 2014 against 4.70 lakh tonnes in the same month a year
ago. The export of soybean meal during December 2013 was 4.71 lt.
Global update
Global Soybean production is projected at a record 314.4 million
tonnes in 2014/15 up 1.6 million on gains for Brazil and the United
States. The Brazil soybean crop projection is raised 1.5 million tons to a
record 95.5 million. Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected
at a record 532.4 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from last month.
Soybean Spread Matrix
Spot
20-Feb-15
20-Apr-15
20-May-15
Closing
3295
3356
3383
3406
20-Feb-15
61
0
-
20-Apr-15
88
27
0
-
Mustard Seed Spread Matrix
Spot
Closing
3977
20-Apr-15
-588.95
20-May-15
-546.95
As on Jan 27, 2015
20-May-15
111
50
23
0
As on Jan 27, 2015
19-Jun-15
-505.95
20-Apr-15
3388
0
42
83
20-May-15
3430
-
0
41
19-Jun-15
3471
-
-
0
Technical Chart –Soybean
NCDEX Feb contract
Outlook
Soybean futures may trade on a mixed note on increased import duty
on edible oil and poor buying support on higher prices.
Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures traded on a positive note yesterday and closed
0.50% higher on good demand and expectation of lower than expected
crop arrivals in coming months.
The acreage in the country so far is down by about 3.2% at about 63.8
lakh hectares (lh). The acreage in Rajasthan has dropped by 12.6% at
26.4 lh. Traders expect rapeseed output to drop to 7.0 million tonnes
in the 2014-15 crop year (July-June) from 7.4 million last year. There
are reports of the decline in sowing in Rajasthan.
Source: Telequote
Technical Chart –Mustard Seed
NCDEX Apr contract
Global updates
Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 71.94 million tons,
up 1.2 million mainly on increased production for Canada (15.6 million
tons).
Reports of Bug infestation in Europe may lead to 15% drop in output of
rapeseed, the region’s primary source of vegetable oil used to make
food ingredients and biodiesel. Output of rapeseed may fall to a threeyear low of 20.5 million metric tons in 2015, down from a record 24
million last year.
Outlook
Mustard seed may trade on a mixed note. Lower levels buying interest
and expectation of lower production may support the price.
Technical Levels
Valid for Jan 28, 2015
Contract
Unit
Support
Resistance
Soybean NCDEX Feb Futures
RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures
`/qtl
`/qtl
3290-3325
3330-3355
3390-3430
3410-3440
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Commodities Daily Report
th
Wednesday| 28 January, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil Feb futures traded on positive note and closed 0.33%
higher yesterday due to fresh positions created by the speculators
on lower prices, after recorded continuous fall last week on low
demand taking cue from the international edible oil market.
In the month of Dec 14, there is an increase of 81 per cent import of
Crude soybean oil to 97,027 tonnes as compared to last year’s
53,500 tonnes. It is mainly due to high prices of soybean and lesser
realization for oil and soybean meal in export market, resulted in
lower crushing and availability of domestic oil coupled with
anticipated increase in import duty by the GOI.
According to latest report of US Department of Agriculture (USDA),
the domestic consumption of soybean oil in India is likely to be at
around 3.45 million tons against 3.30 million tons last year.
Recently, the customs duty on crude oil has been increased to 7.5
per cent from 2.5 per cent earlier, while the duty on refined edible
oil has been raised to 15 per cent from 10 per cent, as per the
notification issued by the Central Board of Excise and Customs.
Market Highlights
As on Jan 27, 2015
% Change
Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX
Ref Soy oil- NCDEX
Feb
Soybean Oil- CBOTMar Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia –
Feb
CPO- MCX –
Jan
Unit
`/10 kg
Last
639.55
Prev day
-0.51
WoW
-5.39
MoM
0.05
YoY
-8.41
`/10 kg
593.05
0.33
-8.36
-6.55
-12.04
USc/lb
31.17
-1.36
-
-3.97
-15.89
MYR/Tn
-
-
-
-
-
`/10 kg
427.00
-1.75
-6.56
-3.57
-20.05
Source: Reuters
Refined Soy Oil SpreadMatrix
Closing
20-Feb-15
20-Apr-15
As on Jan 27, 2015
19-Jun-15
Spot
639.55
-16.4
-46.5
-73.5
20-Feb-15
623.15
0
-30.1
-57.1
20-Apr-15
593.05
-
0
-27
19-Jun-15
566.05
-
-
0
Crude Palm Oil
MCX CPO Jan. futures traded on negative note yesterday, and closed
1.75 % down taking clue from the international CPO market. CPO
Mar’15 contract ended lower on BMD due to dismal global
economic outlook as the crude oil and most commodity prices are
trading on the weaker side.
In the month of Dec 2014, alone India imported 778,815 tonnes of
Crude palm oil which is about 9% and 12% increase m-o-m and y-o-y
respectively.
CPO Spread Matrix
As on Jan 27, 2015
30-Mar-15
Closing
30-Jan-15
27-Feb-15
30-Jan-15
427
0
7.7
12.8
27-Feb-15
434.7
-
0
5.1
30-Mar-15
439.8
-
-
0
Technical Chart –Ref Soy Oil
NCDEX Feb contract
Palm oils make up 75% of the country's total vegetable oil imports in
Dec 14 as per the SEA data released. India meets 60% of its annual
vegetable oil demand of 17-18 million tonnes via imports.
Crude palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia supply about 85
per cent of the world's palm oil.
Wet weather in Malaysia could a main factor for lower January
output than expected, following flood warnings from Malaysia's
weather bureau for parts of its top growing regions of Sabah and
Sarawak. Palm oil is still supportive on the weather front and
currency factor but the prices might slump down on the weak global
commodity market especially crude oil prices.
Technical Chart –Crude Palm Oil
MCX Jan contract
Thailand plans to import around 50,000 tonnes of crude palm oil
from February due to a domestic shortage caused by drought
according to the trade sources.
Outlook
Soy Oil futures and CPO prices may trade on a mixed note. Prices
may follow the international trend; however appreciation in USDINR
may pressurize the prices.
Technical Outlook
Valid for Jan 28, 2015
Source: Telequote
Contract
Unit
Support
Resistance
Soy Oil NCDEX Feb Futures
CPO MCX Jan Futures
`/qtl
`/qtl
616-620
426-431
628-632
438-442
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Commodities Daily Report
th
Wednesday| 28 January, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Market Highlights
Jeera
Jeera Feb. futures traded on negative note for fifth successive session
and closed 3.54% down yesterday as market participants has off
loaded their positions for profit booking. The fundamentals on Jeera is
still positive due to less production estimate amid less sowing area in
the Gujarat, the main Jeera producing state.
Jeera Spot- NCDEX
Jeera- NCDEX Feb Fut
Turmeric Spot- NCDEX
Turmeric- NCDEX Apr Fut
As on Jan 27, 2015
Unit
`/qtl
`/qtl
`/qtl
`/qtl
Last
15960
15675
7786
8164
% Change
WoW
MoM
0.24
14.20
-3.18
6.06
-2.86
5.48
-9.25
-4.96
Prev
day
-2.04
-3.54
-2.21
-4.00
Production and Exports
YoY
25.86
23.77
27.90
14.79
Source: Reuters
According to Gujarat government data released on 19th Jan 15, Jeera
recorded 2.64 lakh hac, 42% less sowing compared to last year’s 4.54
lakh hac. The supplies of Jeera expected to rise in the next month due
to arrival of new season crop.
Export orders are diverted to India due to Geo-political tensions in
Syria and Turkey. .Jeera (cumin) exports have been 87,500 tonnes in
the first six months (Apr-Sep) of 2014-15, a rise of 25% from the
corresponding period of the previous (Source: Spices Board)
Outlook
Jeera futures are expected to trade on mixed note as there is reduced
demand from retailers and stockists amid adequate stock positions as
the harvesting has started in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Jeera Spread Matrix
Spot
20-Feb-15
20-Mar-15
20-Apr-15
20-Feb-15
-871.1
0
-
20-Mar-15
-596.1
275
0
-
As on Jan 27, 2015
20-Apr-15
-331.1
540
265
0
Closing
20-Apr-15
20-May-15
As on Jan 27, 2015
20-Jun-15
7615.8
8082
8140
8172
466.2
0
-
524.2
58
0
-
Closing
15646.1
14775
15050
15315
Turmeric Spread Matrix
Spot
20-Apr-15
20-May-15
20-Jun-15
Technical Chart – Jeera
556.2
90
32
0
NCDEX Feb contract
Turmeric
Turmeric Apr. futures traded on negative note yesterday and closed
4.00% down. It is fifth successive drop this week due to subdued
demand from retailers and traders at high prices. The new crop has
now hit the markets in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
There are concerns over production crop loss due to cyclone ‘Hudhud’
that hit Andhra Pradesh in Oct 2014. Demand for the commodity has
been increasing rapidly from North India and from the medicinal and
cosmetic industry.
Spot turmeric prices increased in Erode markets last week due to
arrival of good quality turmeric. Traders, especially exporters,
procured good number of turmeric due to arrival of good quality
produce. Many buyers were keen on buying quality hybrid turmeric
and also local root variety turmeric.
Technical Chart – Turmeric
NCDEX Apr contract
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Sowing of Turmeric in AP for the 2014-15 season is reported at 0.13
lakh ha, as against 0.1 lakh ha last year. The area in Telangana stood at
0.446 lakh ha against 0.431 lakh ha last year.
Exports in turmeric have increased by 10% to 43,000 tonnes during
Apr-Sep 2014 as compared to last year. The export target for the
2014-15 is 80,000 tonnes according to Spice Board.
Outlook
Turmeric futures may trade on a mixed note on improved spot
demand however profit booking on higher levels may restrict the
sharp gains.
Technical Outlook
Source: Telequote
Valid for Jan 28, 2015
Jeera NCDEX Feb Futures
Unit
`/qtl
Support
14520-14650
Resistance
14900-15050
Turmeric NCDEX Apr Futures
`/qtl
7850-7970
8200-8300
www.angelcommodities.com
Commodities Daily Report
th
Wednesday| 28 January, 2015
`
Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
Cotton complex traded on a positive note yesterday. MCX Cotton Dec
Futures closed 2.07% higher and NCDEX Kapas April’15 closed 0.97%
higher. Domestic spot markets were stable as millers were buying as per
the requirements. The arrival pace in India has picked up as procurement
by the government agencies has increased in Maharashtra, Andhra
Pradesh and Gujarat.
The state-run Cotton Corp of India (CCI) started to sell cotton through
electronic auctions into a weak market as it struggles to store purchases
of around 50 lakh bales procured in the current crop season.
Cotton prices in China India and Pakistan have fallen by 25 to 30 per cent
and on the international market the commodity has lost nearly 75 per
cent from last year. According to Chinese Government survey, the cotton
production in China is down 2.2% and fell by 6.16 mt as cotton area
shrank nearly 3%.
Market Highlights
NCDEX Kapas Apr ‘15
MCX Cotton Jan 15
ICE Cotton Mar ‘15
Cot look A Index
As on Jan 27, 2015
Unit
`20 kgs
`/Bale
USc/Lbs
Last
728
14280
58.78
% Change
Prev. day WoW
0.97
-3.06
2.07
-2.33
2.58
-
65.3
-1.06
-2.90
MoM YoY
-11.33 -27.20
-9.62 -30.65
-4.62 -30.23
-
-30.35
Source: Reuters
Cotton Spread Matrix
30-Jan-15
27-Feb-15
30-Mar-15
Closing
30-Jan-15
14280
14500
14720
0
-
As on Jan 27, 2015
27-Feb-15
30-Mar-15
220
0
-
440
220
0
Technical Chart - Kapas
NCDEX April 2015 contract
Technical Chart - Cotton
MCX Jan contract
Domestic Production and Consumption
According to Cotton Association of India (CAI), cotton output in the
country would stand around 402 lakh bales in season 2014-15, slightly
lower than the production of the previous season when it was 407.25
lakh bales. The arrival of cotton till Jan 11 is at 168.31 lakh bales
according to CCI data which is almost 3 per cent higher compared to last
year.
The Indian Cotton Federation has estimated cotton crop for 2014-15
season (October-September) at 406 lakh bales with Gujarat top the list
with 120 lakh bales, followed by Maharashtra at 90 lakh, Telangana (45
lakh), Karnataka (33 lakh) and Seemandhra (30 lakh).
Two successive years of the bumper harvest have contributed to the fall
in the domestic prices below MSP. Cotton procurement by the CCI has
touched 4.82 million bales highest in last six years. India’s cotton exports
have also dropped by 40 per cent year on year with prices declining up to
30 per cent for the same time period as demand from China has slowed
down in 2014-15.
Global Cotton Updates (WASDE Report)
Latest report has pegged global output up from its previous month's
estimates to 119.17 Million 480-pound Bales. World ending stocks are
now projected at 108.6 million bales. Global consumption is reduced
nearly 4 lakh bales compared to last month. China’s consumption is
lowered as mills’ response to falling domestic cotton prices continues to
be sluggish and yarn imports to date remain high.
Source: Telequote
US production rose to 161,000 bales whereas domestic mill use and
exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are now at 4.7 million.
Outlook
Cotton futures may trade on a mixed note. Selling on higher levels may
be negative for the prices.
Technical Outlook
Contract
Valid for Jan 28, 2015
Unit
Support
Resistance
Kapas NCDEX April ’15 Fut
`/20 kgs
708-717
735-744
Cotton MCX Jan Futures
`/bale
14180-14320
14600-14750
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