1. No category

27 de febrero de 2015
www.monex.com.mx
Cartera Modelo
@monexanalisis
Resumen
Elaborado por: Dirección de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil

Por Emisora
Emisora
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Serie
IPyC
IRT
Cartera s / Com.
Cartera c / Com.
44,190
55,576
NAFTRAC
ALFA
ALSEA
ANGELD
BIMBO
CEMEX
FUNO
GENTERA
GFNORTE
ICA
KOF
PINFRA
TERRA
44.19
32.39
45.85
28.60
42.22
15.15
41.93
28.66
81.19
13.51
129.08
179.01
32.19
A
*
10
A
CPO
11
*
O
*
L
*
13
Variación (%)
Desde
En el año
inicio
Última
Revisión
Precio
0.89
1.47
0.81
0.73
0.89
3.15
4.68
-0.31
-0.33
-2.96
-1.82
0.69
-2.31
0.51
2.47
0.75
12m
9.29
13.44
15.65
9.95
2.42
2.52
2.19
1.89
13.56
7.05
16.79
14.87
-2.24
11.25
5.98
7.36
0.09
-1.23
0.83
3.84
-3.92
1.44
8.10
-1.67
12.46
2.84
3.73
0.73
-2.47
-3.34
-0.01
-24.99
1.93
0.91
4.28
1.25
12.08
23.05
-9.97
0.02
27.55
-3.52
-37.02
0.22
3.02
23.19
Beta
PO 2015
Rend.
Esp. (%)
46,800
Repr. IPyC
%
Sugerencia
Anterior
Comp. Cartera (%) s/Naftrac
Nueva
Anterior
Nueva
51.07
6.39
2.69
2.97
6.50
5.66
3.93
6.05
1.20
3.75
2.86
6.96
11.68
9.83
5.42
5.59
11.88
10.35
7.18
11.07
2.19
6.86
5.23
12.73
13.05
5.49
6.06
13.28
11.57
8.02
12.36
2.45
7.67
5.84
14.22
5.9
0.90
13.0
1.40
0.94
1.00
1.20
0.41
0.85
1.05
1.13
0.90
0.73
0.20
Composición Cartera (%) con Naftrac
Stop
39.00
50.00
44.82
19.00
53.04
31.50
97.08
25.03
175.00
210.48
35.99
20.41
9.05
6.16
25.41
26.50
9.91
19.57
85.29
35.57
17.58
11.79
59.5
45.29
6.39
5.38
2.97
3.06
6.50
5.66
3.93
6.05
1.20
3.75
2.86
6.96
4.56
39.0
0.84
1.82
14.3
6.80
16.1
0.95
26.0
7.41
0.27 77.5 - 84
2.35
125.0
1.49
-
Nota: La periodicidad de la revisión del portafolio es semanal, con posibilidad de revisión en caso extraordinario.
Aumentar 5.8 %
Disminuir 2.7 %
Vender 3.1 %
54.71
Cartera vs. IPyC desde la última revisión
48.96
100.00
100.00
Cartera vs. IPyC desde Inicio.
1.60%
IPyC
Cartera c/ Com.
25.0%
Cartera s/ Com.
1.40%
20.0%
1.20%
15.0%
1.00%
10.0%
Variación
Variación
0.80%
0.60%
Rendimiento cartera
0.40%
0.0%
0.20%
-5.0%
0.00%
-10.0%
25-jul-12
25-ago-12
25-sep-12
25-oct-12
25-nov-12
25-dic-12
25-ene-13
25-feb-13
25-mar-13
25-abr-13
25-may-13
25-jun-13
25-jul-13
25-ago-13
25-sep-13
25-oct-13
25-nov-13
25-dic-13
25-ene-14
25-feb-14
25-mar-14
25-abr-14
25-may-14
25-jun-14
25-jul-14
25-ago-14
25-sep-14
25-oct-14
25-nov-14
25-dic-14
25-ene-15
25-feb-15
27/2/15
26/2/15
25/2/15
Rendimiento IPyC
5.0%
Movimiento desde la última revisión
8
0.62
3
0.12
-2
-0.38
-7
-0.88
-1.38
-12
-1.88
-17
-2.38
-22
Var. Ult. Rev
Contr. A la Cartera
-2.88
Contribución al IPyC
LAB
FUNO
ELEKTRA
MEXCHEM
ICA
GENTERA
GSANBOR
KIMBER
WALMEX
BIMBO
CEMEX
AMX
GMEXICO
LALA
IENOVA
KOF
GAP
GFNORTE
GFINBUR
NAFTRAC
ASUR
SANMEX
TLEVISA
GFREGIO
AC
GFAMSA
PINFRA
COMERCI
ALFA
ALPEK
OMA
LIVEPOL
ALSEA
FEMSA
GRUMA
PE&OLES
MFRISCO
ICH
OHLMEX
SIMEC
BOLSA
-3.38
CHDRAUI
-27
Movimiento en el año
15
Fuente: Monex con información de SiBolsa y Economática
10
5
1
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
Mercado Accionario
Revisión
Actual
44,190
IPyC
Cartera Actual
Nueva Propuesta
Emisora
IPyC
NAFTRAC
AC
AEROMEX
ALFA
ALPEK
ALSEA
AMX
ANGELD
ARA
ASUR
AUTLAN
AXTEL
AZTECA
BACHOCO
BIMBO
BOLSA
CEMEX
CHDRAUI
COMERCI
CREAL
CULTIBA
DIABLOI
ELEKTRA
FEMSA
FIBRAMQ
FUNO
GAP
GCARSO
GENTERA
GFAMSA
GFINBUR
GFINTER
GFNORTE
GFREGIO
GMEXICO
GRUMA
GSANBOR
HCITY
HERDEZ
ICA
ICH
IDEAL
IENOVA
KIMBER
KOF
LAB
LALA
LIVEPOL
MEGA
MEXCHEM
MFRISCO
OHLMEX
OMA
PAPPEL
PE&OLES
PINFRA
POCHTEC
QC
SANMEX
SARE
SIMEC
SORIANA
SPORT
TERRA
TLEVISA
VESTA
VOLAR
WALMEX
Serie
Sector
ISHRS
*
*
A
A
*
L
10
*
B
B
CPO
CPO
B
A
A
CPO
B
UBC
*
B
10
*
UBD
12
11
B
A1
*
A
O
O
O
O
B
B
B-1
*
*
*
B
B-1
*
A
L
B
B
C-1
CPO
*
A-1
*
B
*
*
*
B
CPO
B
B
B
B
S
13
CPO
*
A
*
3
21
7
15
17
20
27
22
1
13
20
12
2
2
25
4
5
5
25
3
27
6
3
26
26
1
7
25
6
25
25
25
25
13
2
6
26
2
8
19
8
28
6
3
6
2
6
12
15
13
8
1
14
13
8
15
25
25
22
19
5
16
26
12
9
21
5
Precio
a 27 feb-15
44,190
44.19
94.78
25.19
32.39
17.98
45.85
16.00
28.60
7.07
205.03
14.47
4.41
6.37
63.68
42.22
26.97
15.15
48.96
47.96
36.20
20.76
15.65
498.72
142.73
25.72
41.93
101.35
67.48
28.66
12.22
41.98
101.18
81.19
79.40
45.22
183.13
23.32
24.09
37.41
13.51
68.15
37.39
78.36
30.45
129.08
16.32
29.82
168.90
54.82
43.58
19.90
30.86
70.95
25.53
317.72
179.01
13.38
30.26
32.98
0.36
44.78
35.26
25.57
32.19
101.61
28.71
15.00
36.59
2015E
46,800
FV / Ebitda
Rend. %
2014E Actual Prom 5a Dscto.
5.9
10.76 9.43
14.1
13.1
13.0
PO Cons. Rend. %
2015
2015E
46,800
5.9%
46.80
5.9
96.79
2.1
25.24
0.2
39.00
20.4
22.00
22.4
50.00
9.1
18.50
15.6
6.14
-13.2
181.00
-11.7
14.50
0.2
3.71
-15.8
9.01
41.5
68.58
7.7
44.82
6.2
30.03
11.4
19.00
25.4
46.48
-5.1
50.31
4.9
41.03
13.3
22.35
7.7
478.00
-4.2
136.50
-4.4
31.45
22.3
53.04
26.5
95.15
-6.1
71.03
5.3
31.50
9.9
17.64
44.4
39.97
-4.8
110.82
9.5
97.08
19.6
88.21
11.1
47.00
3.9
170.69
-6.8
25.02
7.3
29.83
23.8
41.26
10.3
25.03
85.3
62.00
-9.0
42.00
12.3
86.19
10.0
33.68
10.6
175.00
35.6
34.57
111.8
34.14
14.5
174.53
3.3
72.08
31.5
59.00
35.4
27.00
35.7
29.47
-4.5
64.50
-9.1
28.00
9.7
315.00
-0.9
210.48
17.6
21.75
62.6
37.04
22.4
38.03
15.3
0.23
-37.7
50.00
11.7
40.52
14.9
29.25
14.4
35.99
11.8
97.10
-4.4
33.11
15.3
15.05
0.3
36.00
-1.6
Suma
Fuente: Monex con información de SIBolsa y Economática
Beta
Repr.
1.00
0.90
0.90
100.0
56.6
59.5
FV/Ebitda*
Beta
aa
Actual Prom 5 a Dscto.% bbb
8.34
8.35
-0.1%
1.00
12.69 13.33
-4.8
0.55
8.29
0.30
10.68 9.03
18.4
1.40
9.69
1.01
18.78 12.96
44.9
0.94
6.91
6.17
11.9
0.96
14.86 10.36
43.5
0.70
17.11 12.19
40.4
0.85
8.92
0.43
4.69
1.15
6.47
7.40
-12.6
0.80
4.77
5.75
-17.1
0.37
16.53 13.19
25.3
1.00
18.15 15.52
16.9
0.86
11.84 11.07
7.0
1.20
11.02 10.78
2.2
0.77
11.91 12.71
-6.3
0.83
11.59
0.67
27.23 17.10
59.2
0.94
24.54
0.63
18.03 14.46
24.7
1.04
16.83
0.69
31.88
0.41
15.44 11.74
31.5
0.68
16.50 14.95
10.4
0.94
15.12
0.85
17.89 14.12
26.7
0.88
15.47
1.00
14.11
0.55
14.79
1.05
15.84
0.81
8.03
7.76
3.4
1.14
12.79 9.00
42.1
0.84
10.37
0.32
19.48
0.38
15.80 11.51
37.3
0.46
11.74 13.07
-10.2
1.13
9.87 11.97
-17.6
1.01
28.94 24.64
17.4
0.01
23.51 25.97
-9.5
0.85
13.88 12.80
8.5
0.75
11.69 11.51
1.5
0.90
9.12 14.39
-36.6
1.02
12.67 12.31
3.0
0.57
18.39 15.18
21.1
0.78
9.79
8.48
15.4
0.35
10.91 11.10
-1.7
1.25
21.11
0.88
6.13
0.93
18.00 12.32
46.1
0.70
5.55
5.83
-4.9
0.74
11.99 10.83
10.7
0.92
20.34 13.81
47.3
0.73
7.80 16.01
-51.3
0.30
21.57
0.15
15.97
1.15
-4.59
0.53
8.74
1.07
8.61 10.52
-18.1
0.68
11.03
0.30
17.46
0.20
13.95 10.24
36.1
0.98
26.72
0.45
25.90
0.36
0.87
Peso IPC
1.12
4.56
0.28
0.84
16.63
1.56
1.82
0.38
6.80
0.77
1.63
11.28
0.97
0.71
0.95
2.56
7.41
0.29
7.08
1.45
0.27
0.38
0.66
1.62
2.35
0.47
0.67
1.16
1.51
0.88
1.15
1.49
2.20
9.08
7.03
No. de
Emisoras
34
12
12
c
%
45.30
6.39
5.36
2.97
3.06
6.50
5.66
3.93
6.05
1.20
3.75
2.86
6.96
-
100
Cartera Actual
% c / Naft. Sub-Sobre Ponder.
0.51
8.45
0.13
5.74
7.54
2.97
0.71
3.88
0.17
9.59
0.35
0.74
5.11
5.66
0.44
0.32
4.36
1.16
9.41
0.13
3.21
0.66
1.32
0.17
0.30
0.73
4.82
0.21
0.31
0.52
0.68
0.40
0.52
3.54
1.00
6.96
4.12
3.18
100
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.61
3.89
0.15
4.90
9.10
2.97
0.85
2.06
0.21
2.78
0.42
0.89
6.17
5.66
0.53
0.39
3.41
1.40
2.00
0.16
3.87
0.79
1.05
0.21
0.36
0.88
2.47
0.26
0.37
0.63
0.82
0.48
0.63
2.04
1.21
6.96
4.97
3.84
%
51.0
6.4
2.7
3.0
6.5
5.7
3.9
6.1
1.2
3.8
2.9
7.0
-
Nueva Propuesta
% c / Naft. Sub-Sobre Ponder.
0.57
8.72
0.14
3.12
8.49
2.97
0.80
0.93
0.19
9.97
0.40
0.83
5.76
5.66
0.50
0.36
4.41
1.31
9.84
0.15
3.61
0.74
1.34
0.19
0.34
0.82
4.95
0.24
0.34
0.59
0.77
0.45
0.59
3.62
1.12
6.96
4.64
3.59
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.55
4.15
0.14
2.28
8.14
2.97
0.76
0.89
0.19
3.17
0.38
0.80
5.52
5.66
0.48
0.35
3.46
1.25
2.43
0.14
3.47
0.71
1.07
0.18
0.32
0.79
2.60
0.23
0.33
0.57
0.74
0.43
0.57
2.13
1.08
6.96
4.45
3.44
100
100
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
2
Mercado Accionario
Justificación de Movimientos
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario
3
Mercado Accionario
Directorio
Dirección de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil
Carlos A. González Tabares
Director de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil
T. 5231-4521
[email protected]
Eduardo Ávila Vargas
Subdirector de Análisis Económico
T. 5231-0489
[email protected]
Daniela Ruíz Zárate
Analista Económico
T. 5231-0489
[email protected]
Fernando E. Bolaños S.
Analista Bursátil / Industrial, Minero y Petroquímico
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 0720
[email protected]
J. Roberto Solano Pérez
Analista Bursátil / Construcción, Vivienda y Fibras
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451
[email protected]
Verónica Uribe Boyzo
Analista Bursátil / Alimentos y Bebidas
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4782
[email protected]
Giselle N. Mojica Plascencia
Analista Bursátil
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451
[email protected]
Laura Villanueva Ramírez
Analista Bursátil
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4768
[email protected]
Stephany Ramírez Rojas
Analista Deuda Corporativa
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4262
[email protected]
J. Francisco Caudillo Lira
Analista Técnico Sr.
T. 5231-0016
[email protected]
Astianax Cuanalo Dorantes
Analista Sr. de Sistemas de Información
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4790
[email protected]
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Mercado Accionario
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