Download Report

Rayglen Market Comments – January 28th, 2015
Red Lentils are still trading at strong numbers, we have seen another cent increase in prices this
week. #2’s are trading in the $0.34-0.35 FOB range, although we have had offers trigger at $0.36. X3’s
are up as well, now trading in the rage of $0.30-0.32 FOB and #3’s at $0.29. Extra Small Red Lentils #2
bids sit at $0.34-$0.36 as well. We are starting to see interest on Large Green Lentils No. 1 and X2’s, it
seems like the sky is the limit so show us offers! No. 2’s continue to trade at $0.31-0.32 FOB, X3’s at
$0.24-0.25 and #3’s at $0.21-0.23 in the yard. Small Green Lentils #2 moved up this week and are now
trading at $0.28-0.30. Both greens and reds still have movement into delivery points before we run into
spring break up. Growers who are planting Reds this year and are wanting to lock in some profit, this
would be the time to do it. New crop bids at $0.24 with an Act of God is a good starting point for next
crop year. If you are looking for that $0.25 bid on new crop it has pretty much disappeared, we have
seen a few offers trade in the right area at this level but not much else. Early reports are saying that
there is a potential of 4 Million acres of lentils to be seeded this year so that being said, if we get
average yields or higher we could see bids being the high. Take advantage of these prices lock in some
profit, guarantee some cash flow off the combine and free up some bin space. On the green lentil side of
things we have seen Large Green Lentil new crop prices at $0.26 on a #1 and $0.24 on #2’s with an Act
of God. We have not seen any bids on new crop Small Green Lentils but if you looking to lock some in,
give us an offer and we will see what we can do. If you are having trouble finding Red or Green Lentil
seed for next spring give the office a call as we will help you get the seed that you need. Lentil seed is
trading fast and quantities are starting to get low. If you are interested in these marketing opportunities
contact any of the merchants at the office.
The chickpea market is focusing on what the Indian Rabi crop does, since the gap between last year and
this year’s seeding progress has widened. We are seeing some steady movement in green chickpeas
around that 12 cents/lbs mark. As far as other pricing goes, there has been the odd opportunity to get
some moving for 25 cents on a large type Kabuli. Markets are likely to trade sideways at least for the
short term. Rains in growing areas in India have kept the trends weak, however lower sowing reports
and expectations of some more demand are likely to support the prices in coming weeks. There are also
some reports from Australia that indicate a 30% decrease in chickpea production in 2014/15 vs that in
2013/14. The trade seems to be optimistic about Canadian export potential and 2015 might be the kick
start for Canadian chickpea exports.
Flax prices are holding strong this week. The low Canadian dollar has helped these prices stay firm, for
now… We are still seeing $14.00-$14.50 picked up on old crop, while new crop is in the $12.00-$12.25
range FOB farm with an Act of God. Flax bids in Western Canada have been moving steadily higher in
order to fill the European and Chinese demand. The Seaway is closed now, so bids will likely stay
sideways, but have yet to decline because there is enough Chinese demand to keep the flax moving.
Some early reports suggest that 2015 acres could be up and well beyond a forecast of 5%. If that is the
case, the 2015/16 flax market could be heavy and weigh on prices. Signing up some new crop will
guarantee a price and movement. We do have some flax seed available, so call us for details.
The yellow pea demand has stayed firm the past week and has resulted in higher values coming to the
table. Buyers are strongly looking for yellow peas lately at $8.50/bu picked up on farm but movement
has been pushed out until March/May at this time. Many growers were hoping that they would see
$8.00/bu come around this year and we have blown past that with current bids. Yes we have exported
allot of yellow peas and our stocks will likely being much tighter at the end of the year compared to
previous years, but growers should move some yellow peas into this rally and take advantage of the
market we are currently in. Green peas have not seen any change in value nor demand this past
week. Buyers are still holding around $9.00/bu delivered plant with not allot of excitement on the
buying side. Growers looking to move green peas and are interested at $9.00/bu FOB farm should get
their targets in and see what happens. New crop contracts have been slow to come out this
year. Currently yellow peas are being indicated around $7.00/bu mark but trade has been very light at
this time. There has been little talk on new crop green peas, but likely to come out as soon as we get
more guidance on new crop yellow peas.
U.S milling wheat has seen a small slide downwards this morning. U.S wheat is still showing overprice in
the globe market. Reports that Ukraine has decided to put a cap on its exports of their milling wheat
between January and June 2015 might open up U.S milling wheat exporting. There is still a few buyers
looking for high protein wheat #2 loaded rail car, if this interests you please call in with a location for a
firm bid. Feed wheat market took a drop this week but there are still a few buyers that are looking both
low and high vomi wheat. Overall, it seems that feed lots are getting full and buying is starting to slow
down.
Malt barley is still holding strong on 2 row varieties although 6 row varieties have fallen off a bit today.
We are now seeing bids FOB farm on 6 row at $5.75 while 2 row continues to trade at $6.25/bu.
Movement is still pushed out to April, May, June, but buying continues to be steady. If you’re on the
fence about contracting, keep in mind these prices and movement times could change without notice,
as we have seen in the 6 row this week. We are also starting to hear that new crop malt barley could be
coming out soon, it’s been long awaited by many so if you’re interested call in with your targets. Feed
barley markets are starting to slow down again but we still buyers showing $3.40 to $3.55/bu FOB farm
for further out movement.
Mustard has stayed in a tight trading range over the past week. New crop contracting is happening on all
types of mustards and buyers are working heavily bringing in last year’s contracts. New crop yellow
mustard is now available 33 to 35 cents FOB depending on movement and has been trading steadily.
Oriental has traded at 28 cents and a brown mustard IP program is now available for very limited acres.
A new crop brown mustard bid has been difficult to get so far. Spot brown continues to struggle as
mustard from Russia/Ukraine was dumped into markets at fairly cheap prices during the Ruble crisis,
and buyers are reluctant to buy right now. Spot price continues to trade sideways with yellow
remaining in the low thirties at about 33 cents, brown is down at 24-25 cents today and oriental is
sitting at 29 to 30 cents. For those of you planting mustard this year, call the office if you have interest in
certified mustard seed that can be delivered to your yard at very good prices. We have both treated and
un-treated options.
Oat bids are staying relatively firm with maybe a hint of strength. Most spot bids are around $2.65-2.75
FOB in the north and eastern side of Saskatchewan while bids in the south are looking at $3.00 FOB
farm. New crop indications are likely in the 2.60 range FOB farm on the eastern side of Sask. Maybe
slightly better depending on the time frame you wish to move the oats in the fall. If you are looking to
either get into a newer variety of oats or looking to freshen up your seed we have a line on a good
yielding up and coming oat variety that has shown promising yield and disease capabilities. Give us a
shout for more details.
Canary markets have posted another sideways week. Not a lot of fresh news to report on. The odd
target for 25 cents FOB farm has been hitting. If you would like to get your name on some movement
and 24 cents just isn’t quite doing it for you, give us a shout to put up a target. New crop indications are
floating around 25 cents as well. Looks like it is going to be pretty flat for the next while on the canary
seed front.
Canola has taken quite a hit the last couple days mainly in part to speculators liquidating their long
positions, as well as spillover from soy market declines. Today March futures ended a hair below
$450/MT and May around $445/MT. Basis levels are ranging from $20-$25/MT and of course we have to
work in freight as well. When it’s all said and done FOB farm bids around the Saskatoon area sit at about
$9.15/bu. It looks like some of the strength the low Canadian dollar brought has fallen off for now, but if
you’re interested in a higher price try throwing in a target! Call your Rayglen broker for more area
specific bids.