1. Art and Diseño

Australian sheep
Industry projections 2015
Australian sheep industry projections 2015
Authors: Ben Thomas and Rebecca Matthews
For more information call MLA on 02 9463 9372
Published by Meat & Livestock Australia Ltd February 2015
©
Meat & Livestock Australia Ltd, 2015
ISSN 1329-2994
While endeavouring to ensure that the information contained in this publication
is correct, MLA makes no representation as to, and accepts no liability for, the
accuracy of such information including, but not limited to, the forecasts.
i
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
Contents
Introduction ................................................................ 1
European Union ........................................................ 21
Key assumptions ........................................................ 2
Japan ........................................................................ 22
Situation and outlook 2015–2019 ................................. 3
Other ........................................................................ 23
Australian sheep flock ................................................. 4
Lamb slaughter ........................................................... 5
Malaysia ............................................................................. 23
Papua New Guinea ............................................................ 23
Singapore ........................................................................... 23
Sheep slaughter .......................................................... 6
Live exports .............................................................. 24
Lamb and mutton production and carcase weights ... 7
Competitor summary – New Zealand ....................... 25
Lamb farm income ..................................................... 8
Statistical appendices ............................................... 26
2015 demand outlook ................................................. 9
Appendix 1 – Mutton 20x10 ............................................ 27-28
Appendix 2 – Lamb 20x10 ............................................. 29-30
Lamb exports ........................................................... 10
Mutton exports .......................................................... 11
Sources and acknowledgements ............................. 31
Acronyms ................................................................. 32
Australian market .................................................. 12-13
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) ................... 14-15
United States ............................................................ 16
China .................................................................... 17-18
Hong Kong ............................................................... 19
Taiwan ...................................................................... 20
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
ii
Contents
List of Figures
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
Figure 11
Figure 12
Figure 13
Figure 14
Figure 15
Figure 16
Figure 17
Figure 18
Figure 19
Figure 20
Figure 21
Figure 22
Figure 23
Figure 24
Figure 25
Figure 26
Figure 27
Figure 28
Figure 29
iii
Australian rainfall 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2014 ......................... 2
Australian rainfall outlook – February to April 2015 ................................... 2
A$ against US$ ............................................................................................... 2
Australian sheep flock ................................................................................... 4
Ewe flock size intentions .............................................................................. 4
Australian lamb slaughter ............................................................................. 5
Monthly Australian lamb slaughter .............................................................. 5
Quarterly lamb slaughter and saleyard price ............................................ 5
Australian sheep slaughter ........................................................................... 6
Australian monthly sheep slaughter ........................................................... 6
Quarterly sheep slaughter and saleyard prices ........................................ 6
Lamb production and carcase weight ....................................................... 7
Mutton production and carcase weight .................................................... 7
Quarterly lamb production ........................................................................... 7
Australian slaughter lamb farm income ..................................................... 8
National sheep and lamb saleyard prices and average farm
sale receipts .................................................................................................... 8
Australian lamb exports ................................................................................ 9
Mutton exports and domestic utilisation ................................................... 9
Domestic lamb utilisation ............................................................................ 12
Australian retail meat prices ....................................................................... 12
Australian retail fresh meat shares ............................................................ 13
Australian annual sheepmeat expenditure ............................................. 13
Lamb exports to the Middle East .............................................................. 14
Lamb exports to the Middle East by cut - 2014 ..................................... 14
Mutton exports to the Middle East ........................................................... 15
Mutton exports to the Middle East - by market ..................................... 15
Lamb exports to the US ............................................................................. 16
Lamb exports to the US by cut - 2014 ..................................................... 16
Mutton exports to the US ........................................................................... 16
Figure 30
Figure 31
Figure 32
Figure 33
Figure 34
Figure 35
Figure 36
Figure 37
Figure 38
Figure 39
Figure 40
Figure 41
Figure 42
Figure 43
Figure 44
Figure 45
Figure 46
Figure 47
Lamb exports to China ............................................................................... 17
Lamb exports to China by cut - 2014 ...................................................... 17
Mutton exports to China ............................................................................ 18
Mutton exports to China by cut - 2014 .................................................... 18
Lamb exports to Greater China ................................................................ 19
Mutton exports to Greater China ............................................................. 19
Sheepmeat exports to EU ......................................................................... 21
Lamb exports to EU by cut - 2014 ............................................................ 21
NZ sheepmeat exports to the EU ............................................................. 21
Australian lamb exports to Japan ............................................................ 22
Australian mutton exports to Japan ........................................................ 22
Hokkaido foreign tourists and nationality ................................................ 22
Lamb exports to other markets ............................................................... 23
Mutton exports to other markets ............................................................ 23
Australian live sheep exports .................................................................... 24
NZ monthly lamb slaughter ....................................................................... 25
NZ lamb exports ......................................................................................... 25
Sheepmeat export volume Aus v NZ ...................................................... 25
List of Tables
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5
Situation and outlook for the Australian sheepmeat industry ................... 3
Australian exports of lamb ............................................................................ 10
Australian exports of mutton ......................................................................... 11
Australian live sheep exports ....................................................................... 24
Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major
regions by the 10 main cuts ................................................................... 27-28
Table 6 Australian lamb exports to top 20 destinations and major
regions by the 10 main cuts ................................................................... 29-30
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
Introduction
The Australian sheep industry is set to continue moving through a transitional phase
over the coming years, from a Merino focused industry to one even more concentrated
on producing prime lambs.
Real lamb prices over the past decade have encouraged the
Demand from the US, Middle East and China is likely to
transition, which, although volatile, have been slowly
remain particularly strong, while the smaller markets of
trending higher. Given the very strong demand for Australian
Japan, South East Asia and the EU will continue as
lamb, especially in growing international markets, prices are
important markets to the Australian industry.
likely to remain strong throughout 2015, and over the
remainder of the projection period.
Mutton slaughter, production and exports are anticipated to
decline this year, with reasons very similar to those for lamb.
Lamb slaughter has been making stepped increases for the
In contrast to lamb however, the recovery and increase in
past 15 years, with 20 million lambs likely to become the
production is not forecast to be as aggressive, largely due to
new low, as the prime lamb transition continues, and as our
intentions for flock rebuilding.
breeding ewes become more efficient. This has been
exemplified by the recent improvements in national average
marking rates.
Live sheep exports are set to build on the momentum from
2013 and 2014, with another year-on-year increase
expected in 2015, largely assisted by demand from the
A significant drop in production is expected in 2015 – albeit
Middle East. This trend is likely to continue for the remainder
when compared to a record year – yet this is likely to test
of the projection period (to 2019), assuming uninterupted
market willingness to maintain higher prices. Looking further
market access.
forward to 2018, lamb production will increase again, driven
by higher slaughter, coupled with slightly heavier carcases.
Overall, the outlook for the Australian sheep and lamb
industry is very positive for 2015, especially considering that
Lamb exports are anticipated to contract year-on-year,
production is forecast to decline, while demand is set to
underpinned by the tighter production, although with
remain as strong.
increased lamb supplies forecast towards the end of the
projection period, exports will recover rather quickly. While
supplies will be lower in the short-term, the forecast weaker
A$ will assist trade.
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MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
1
Key assumptions
As part of MLA’s annual sheep and lamb industry projections, a series of “key assumptions” need to be outlined.


After persistent hot and dry conditions during 2014 –

Overall, economic conditions are expected to improve
officially Australia’s third-warmest year on record – a
in 2015 as the global recovery continues. However,
slow phase-out of drought is expected to occur
weaker than expected global activity during 2014 has
throughout 2015. While the pace of the seasonal
seen the IMF’s global growth projection for 2015
improvements will vary, overall, ‘average’ conditions
lowered to 3.8%. The strongest rebound is expected in
have been assumed for the majority of Australia’s sheep
the US and South East Asia, while growth in the EU and
and lamb producing regions.
Japan will be moderate. China will continue on its
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month rainfall
outlook indicates that conditions for February – April will
Figure 2 Australian rainfall outlook
February to April 2015
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall
Legend
55-60% chance
50-55% chance
45-50% chance
40-45% chance
35-40% chance
Below 35% chance
upward trajectory, albeit at a slower rate as it moves
towards a more sustainable growth path.
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
be moderate for much of the eastern states, while
conditions in WA are likely to be drier than average. This
comes after widespread summer rainfall activity across
much of the eastern states, providing producers with
some short-term relief leading into autumn.

The A$ to average lower against the US dollar in 2015,
trading between 80-82US¢. Despite averaging 90US¢ in
2014 (down 7% year-on-year), the Reserve Bank of
Australia indicated that the A$ remains above
Figure 1 Australian rainfall
1 January 2014 - 31 December 2014
Legend
Highest on record
Very much above average
Above average
Average
Below average
Very much below average
Lowest on record
1.2
A$/US$
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
estimations of its fundamental value and “further
0.5
exchange rate depreciation was likely to be needed to
achieve balanced growth in the economy”, with some
Figure 3 A$ against US$
0.4
0
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
1
2
3
Source: Infoscan, CME
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15f 16f 17f
f = forecast
chance of easing monetary policy in coming months.
2014 – officially Australia’s third-warmest year on record
2
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
Situation and outlook 2015–2019
Table 1
Situation and outlook for the Australian sheepmeat industry
% change
on 2014 f
2017 f
2018 f
2019 f
% change
on 2014 f
71,508
72,799
73,241
73,850
3.1%
0.7%
1.8%
0.6%
0.8%
-14.0%
3.5%
7,332
21,220
7,900
22,217
8,500
22,800
-13.9%
1.8%
23.4
21.9
0.4%
0.5%
23.5
22.0
23.6
22.1
23.6
22.2
-2.9%
1.5%
-29.7%
-11.9%
146
449
-13.6%
4.0%
172
467
186
490
205
506
-14.6%
3.3%
2,421
5.3%
2,600
7.4%
2,800
2,900
3,000
30.4%
186
136
-27.0%
111
-18.2%
137
152
169
-9.0%
206
236
164
-30.8%
140
-14.5%
165
178
198
-16.2%
214
237
202
-14.7%
214
5.9%
227
238
250
5.5%
0.0%
251
5.9%
266
279
293
3.9%
6
14.7%
8
8
8
120.8%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 f
Sheep & lamb numbers ('000 head)
at June 30
73,099
74,700
74,000
71,630
71,000
percentage change
-5.8%
2.2%
-0.9%
-3.2%
-0.9%
Slaughterings ('000 head)
sheep
lamb
4,933
17,793
6,063
20,009
9,614
21,886
9,877
22,400
7,237
19,800
-26.7%
-11.6%
6,224
20,500
Avg carcase weight (kg)
sheep
lamb
23.2
22.1
23.1
22.2
22.5
21.5
24.3
21.9
23.3
21.8
-4.1%
-0.3%
Production ('000 tonnes carcase weight)
mutton
lamb
114
393
140
443
217
470
240
490
169
432
Sheep exports ('000 head)
2458
2,279
1,973
2,300
Exports ('000 tonnes)*
mutton
shipped weight
82
107
172
carcase weight
108
134
shipped weight
160
189
lamb
carcase weight
193
222
250
282
237
6
11
4
5
36.7%
2016 f
% change
on 2015 f
Domestic utilisation ('000 tonnes carcase weight)
mutton
kg/capita
lamb
kg/capita
Source: ABS, DA, MLA forecasts
6
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
34.7%
0.2
12.9%
0.3
0.3
0.3
103.5%
200
222
220
208
194
-6.8%
198
2.1%
201
211
213
2.3%
8.9
9.7
9.5
8.9
7.9
-11%
8.0
0.8%
8.0
7.8
7.7
-13.4%
f = forecast (in italics)
* excl. canned/miscellaneous
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
3
Australian sheep flock

ByJune 2015, the Australian sheep flock is forecast to

decline 0.9% on year-ago levels, to 71 million head.

MLA and AWI wool and sheepmeat survey in October
2014 clearly demonstrate that, despite the challenging
The total flock has been contracting over the past
seasonal conditions, the intent across all states is to
couple of years, primarily attributed to consistently high
maintain flocks in 2015. The October survey highlights
lamb and sheep slaughter throughout 2013 and 2014 –
a transition away from Merino to Merino joining, towards
when large parts of the key sheep producing regions
joining Merino ewes to other breed rams – particularly in
were challenged by drought.

Producer flock intention information collected in the
NSW, Victoria and WA.
Producer feedback and survey results suggest that
there has been a greater intent to turn lambs off earlier
across the eastern states, particularly during the second
half of 2014, as seasonal conditions have been against
holding lambs on. Despite the season, marking rates
over winter and spring across the eastern states were
encouraging. In WA, the late spring rain kicked the

Through to 2019, the Australian sheep flock is expected
to slowly increase, to almost 74 million head. The
gradual flock expansion is based on the assumption of
“average” seasonal conditions across key sheep
producing regions, with the drought anticipated to
phase out during 2015.
market along, following a very dry winter, which was
reflected in the increase in marking rates.

In fact, results from the MLA and AWI wool and
sheepmeat survey illustrate that since 2010-11 the
national Merino and non-Merino marking rates have
Figure 4 Australian sheep flock
200
Figure 5 Ewe flock size intentions
increase
million head
maintain
decrease
100%
80%
150
been consistently higher than throughout the previous
decade. This is likely attributed to a combination of
genetic advances, improved management of breeding
60%
100
40%
50
ewes and lambs, and better seasonal conditions in
some areas.
20%
0
91
93
95
97
98
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15f
17f
19f
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
4
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
0%
Oct-12
31 March until 1999, 30 June from 2000
f = forecast
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Source: MLA and AWI wool and sheepmeat surveys
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Lamb slaughter

Lamb slaughter in 2015 is forecast to decline 12% year-
With the assumption of a phasing out of drought in 2015
Figure 6 Australian lamb slaughter
on-year, to 19.8 million head, after what were two
and the intention of producers to maintain their breeding
consecutive years of record lamb slaughter. In 2013,
ewe flock size going forward (MLA/AWI wool and
Australia killed a record number of lambs, almost 21.9
sheepmeat survey), lamb slaughter is expected to
20
million head, and 2014 is estimated (final figures
decline, as producers hold onto more lambs to replace
15
released in February) to have surpassed the previous
culled ewes. Furthermore, as a result of the breeding
record, at 22.4 million head. High slaughter was the
ewe flock falling over the past twelve months, fewer
result of three consecutive years of flock expansion,
lambs are expected to come through the system in
5
followed by two years of ‘below average’ rainfall in the
2015.
0
key lamb producing regions.



Merino ewes to non-Merino sires, is likely to see annual
at elevated levels, with January through to March
lamb slaughter reach a new platform of 20 million head
throughput above year-ago levels. ‘Above average’
over the coming years.
saw lamb slaughter fall below 2013 levels – albeit still
historically high. However, ‘below average’ rainfall was
recorded across all south-eastern Australia in the
second half of 2014, as El Niño-like conditions set in,
and, subsequently, July through to October slaughter

million head
10
96
However, an increasing intent from producers to join
In 2014, monthly lamb slaughter commenced the year
autumn rainfall across SA, Victoria and southern NSW
25
01
02
04
06
08
10
12
14e
16f
18f
e = estimate, f = forecast
Figure 7 Monthly Australian lamb slaughter
2200
The reduced breeding ewe flock is expected to impact
lamb slaughter through to 2016, while thereafter, with
98
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
'000 head
2012
2013
2014
2000
the assumption of average seasonal conditions, lamb
1800
slaughter is expected to recover and reach 22.8 million
1600
head by 2019.
1400
1200
was above 2013 levels.
1000
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Source: ABS
Figure 8 Quarterly lamb slaughter and saleyard price
7
million head
lamb slaughter
A¢/kg cwt
700
average trade lamb price
6
600
5
500
4
400
3
300
2
200
1
100
0
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts, MLA’s NLRS
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
f = forecast
5
Sheep slaughter

Over the long-term, sheep slaughter has been trending

downwards in line with the declining flock, and falling to
2014 encouraged producers to offload sheep, with
a base of 4.9 million head in 2010 when the flock
mutton averaging 311¢/kg cwt, 4% above the five-year
bottomed out at 68 million head. However, sheep
average and 55% above 2013 levels.
slaughter increased in 2013 and again in 2014, following
two years of ‘below average’ rainfall across most wool

Rain across the eastern states in December and
beginning of January has brought some relief, especially
and lamb producing regions. In 2014 sheep slaughter is
in NSW, but has also been a hindrance in spoiling what
expected to reach 9.9 million head, up 3% year-on-year
dry feed there was on the ground. With many producers
and the highest annual kill since 2008.

Meanwhile, high saleyard prices received throughout
intending to increase their breeding ewe flock and the
Hot and dry conditions persisted across much of the
assumption of average seasonal conditions going
country over the spring of 2013 and summer of 2013-
forward, sheep slaughter is expected to contract 27%
14, and deteriorating feed conditions pressured
year-on-year, to 7.2 million head in 2015.
producers to cull older sheep. Some respite came with
good rain in southern regions in the autumn of 2014 and
sheep slaughter eased year-on-year. However, dry
conditions returned in the second half of 2014, as El
Niño-like conditions set in, and sheep slaughter picked

Sheep slaughter is forecast to contract for a second
year to 6.2 million head in 2016, before rising to 8.5
million head by 2019 – but this is still 14% below 2014
levels, echoing the long-term impact through the
system of high slaughter in 2013 and 2014.
up again, averaging higher year-on-year in September,
October and November.
Figure 9 Australian sheep slaughter
20
Figure 11 Quarterly sheep slaughter and saleyard
prices
Figure 10 Australian monthly sheep slaughter
million head
1200
'000 head
2012
2013
2014
5
sheep slaughter
1000
15
A¢/kg cwt
million head
500
average sheep price
4
400
3
300
400
2
200
200
1
100
800
10
600
5
0
0
96
98
01
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
6
02
04
06
08
10
12
14e
16f
18f
e = estimate, f = forecast
0
0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
Source: ABS
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
S
O
N
D
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts, MLA’s NLRS
f = forecast
Lamb and mutton production and carcase weights

In 2015, Australian lamb production is forecast to
decline 12% year-on-year, to 431,600 tonnes cwt. The
reduction in production is underpinned by a


The average national sheep carcase weight is projected
to be 4.1% lower than year-ago levels, at 23.3kg/head
Figure 13 Mutton production and carcase weight
500
'000 tonnes cwt
production
cwt. Looking out to 2019, the national average carcase
considerable contraction in lamb numbers and turnoff
weight is expected to increase slightly each year,
expected this year, following on from two back-to-back
stabilising at 23.6kg/head cwt from 2018 onwards.
kg/head
29
carcase weight
400
27
25
300
23
years of very high lamb slaughter.
200
Seasonal conditions throughout 2014, particularly in the
100
21
19
17
latter half of the year, were very challenging across the
0
majority of sheep producing regions in the eastern
15
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15f 17f 19f
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
states, with deteriorating feed and water stocks
f = forecast
pressuring producers to turn lambs off earlier. Following
a very dry winter in 2014 in WA, lamb carcase weights
reportedly averaged slightly lower towards the end of
the year, although supplies remained solid. Survey
Figure 12 Lamb production and carcase weight
600
'000 tonnes cwt
production
Figure 14 Quarterly lamb production
kg/head
500
results suggest that, over the summer months of 201415, the number of lambs expected to be sold was 7%
higher than the same period the previous year.

25
20
23
10
400
21
300
-10
-20
Looking forward from 2015, lamb production is
17
0
15
-30
91
93
95
97
99
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15f 17f 19f
f = forecast
f
15
20
ec 5f
D
1
20
p
Se 15f
20
n
f
Ju 15
20
ar 5
M
1
20
ec 4
D
1
20
p
Se 14
20
n
Ju 1 4
20
ar 3
M
1
20
ec 3
D
1
20
p
Se 13
20
n
Ju 1 3
20
ar 2
M
1
20
ec 2
D
1
20
p
Se 12
20
n
Ju 1 2
20
ar
the average national lamb carcase weight is forecast to
100
M
to 506,000 tonnes cwt in 2019. In line with production,
0
19
200
expected to steadily increase over the next few years,
% year-on-year change
carcase weight
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
f = forecast
rise gradually from 21.8kg/head cwt in 2015 to 22.2kg/
head cwt in 2019.

Similar to lamb, Australian mutton production is
expected to contract sharply during 2015, after a surge
in drought-driven sheep slaughter in 2014. Production is
forecast to fall 29.7%, or 71,200 tonnes cwt, year-on-
Lamb production is expected to steadily increase over
the next few years
year, to 168,600 tonnes cwt.
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
7
Lamb farm income


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource

On the back of improved prices, resulting from south-

The largest average cash cost in 2013-14 was again
Economics and Sciences (ABARES) produce an annual
eastern Australia having a very wet autumn, lamb sale
fertiliser, increasing slightly, to $54,000, followed by the
report, commissioned by MLA, to assess the financial
receipts in 2013-14 increased 6% year-on-year, to
cost of repairs and maintenance ($39,000), interest
performance of typical slaughter lamb producing farms
$85,000, while sheep sale receipts increased 14% to
payments ($39,000), sprays ($37,000) and fuel, oil and
across Australia. The full report can be found at:
$30,000. National saleyard trade lamb prices in 2013-14
lubricants ($36,000). The one major cost rise was
http://www.mla.com.au/files/d50a6df3-8798-4100-
increased 23% year-on-year, averaging 483¢/kg cwt,
fodder, increasing 20%, to $10,000, as a result
84ce-a39300acd8cd/Financial-performance-of-
and heavy lamb prices increased 26%, averaging 502¢/
increased fodder purchases in northern NSW.
slaughter-lamb-producing-farms-2011-12-to-2013-
kg cwt. Sheep prices followed a similar trend,
14.pdf.
increasing 38% year-on-year, to average 267¢/kg cwt
for the year.
After easing in 2012-13, average slaughter in 2013-14


After ‘below average’ rainfall during the second half of
2014, and high sheep and lamb turn-off, supplies are
expected to remain tight going forward. In addition,
Average farm crop receipts were estimated to have
strong international demand is expected to continue,
a figure close to the record high levels of 2001-02 and
increased 11% to $339,000, supported by increased
supporting prices and farm cash incomes in the
2010-11, in real terms. The improvement in farm cash
winter crop production in South Australia, WA and
medium-term.
income was driven by increased lamb, sheep and crop
southern NSW. While wool prices improved slightly,
sale receipts. Wool and beef cattle receipts remained
reduced quantities saw wool sale receipts remain close
similar to year-ago levels and cash costs remained
to the previous financial year, at $77,000. Average beef
mostly unchanged.
cattle receipts were unchanged on $42,000, with
lamb farm cash incomes increased 24% to $193,000 –
increased sale volumes offsetting lower prices.
2013-14 Average Slaughter
Lamb Farm Cash Incomes
 WA – up 78% to $366,000 per farm
 SA – up 33% to $244,000 per farm
 NSW – up 8% to $144,000 per farm
 Tasmania – down 3% to $131,000 per farm
8
250
$'000 (2013-14 dollars)
200
Figure 16 National sheep and lamb saleyard prices
and average farm sale receipts
700
farm cash income
farm business profit
600
150
100
50
$'000 (2013-14 dollars)
A¢/kg cwt (2013-14 dollars)
Trade lamb price (LHS)
Sheep price (LHS)
Lamb sale receipts (RHS)
Sheep sale receipts (RHS)
140
120
500
100
400
80
300
60
200
40
100
20
0
-50
-100
99
-150
93-94
0
0
95-96
Source: ABARES
97-98
99-00
01-02
03-04
05-06
07-08
financial year
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
9-10
11-12
13-14e
e = estimate
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
g
n
i
d
n
e
r
a
e
y
l
a
i
c
n
a
n
i
f
 Victoria – up 5% to $138,000 per farm
Figure 15 Australian slaughter lamb farm income
Source: MLA's NLRS, ABARES
10
11
12
13
14
2015 demand outlook

In response to a forecast decline in lamb slaughter and

By 2019, Australian lamb exports are anticipated to lift
production in 2015, Australian lamb exports are
back to 250,000 tonnes swt, underpinned by a gradually
expected to decline 15% year-on-year, to 202,000
increasing proportion of lamb production exported.
tonnes swt – albeit, coming from what was a record

export year.
The domestic market is likely to remain stretched by the
strength of global demand, driven by the increasing
middle class in developing markets, improved market
access to China in particular, and the projected
Figure 17 Australian lamb exports
300
weakening A$.
'000 tonnes swt

250
Domestic utilisation is anticipated to decline from
accounting for over 50% of production for the years
200
prior to 2012, to 43% in 2019. This has been a long
150
term-trend, whereby the growth in production has been
100
absorbed by the international markets, rather than a
50
marked increase in domestic consumption.
0
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15f
17f
19f
f = forecast
Source: DA, MLA forecasts

Similarly, Australian mutton exports in 2015 are
anticipated to contract significantly, largely the result of
a substantial reduction in sheep slaughter, following
what were two very high years. Exports are expected to
Figure 18 Mutton exports and domestic utilisation
400
decline 27% year-on-year, to 136,000 tonnes swt –
'000 tonnes cwt
export
albeit, coming off what was the highest volume in 20
domestic utilisation
350
years.
300

250
200
Mutton exports are likely to continue to account for over
95% of production for the coming five years, with
150
169,000 tonnes swt forecast for 2019.
100
50
0
95
97
99
01
Source: DA, ABS, MLA forecasts
03
05
07
09
11
13e
15f
17f
e = estimate, f = forecast
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
9
Lamb exports
Table 2
Australian exports of lamb ('000 tonnes shipped weight)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
% change
46.5
39.5
39.4
42.1
45.6
53.5
17%
US
38.3
34.1
34.3
36.7
39.2
46.2
18%
- Canada
5.1
3.7
3.9
4.7
5.6
6.2
11%
- Mexico
3.1
1.8
1.2
0.8
0.8
1.0
26%
Middle East
35.9
36.7
34.9
51.8
59.8
64.2
7%
Greater China
25.7
25.8
29.6
34.6
48.9
53.0
8%
- China
13.9
15.7
21.2
29.5
39.5
38.8
-2%
- Hong Kong
10.4
8.1
6.2
3.5
7.5
10.6
41%
- Taiwan
1.4
2.0
2.1
1.6
1.8
3.6
94%
South East Asia
6.2
7.6
8.9
8.7
9.7
11.5
18%
Japan
8.3
7.7
7.4
7.7
7.7
10.1
32%
South Korea
1.2
2.1
2.7
3.0
3.2
4.8
52%
EU
13.7
12.0
13.0
12.1
11.7
14.0
20%
Other Europe
2.2
2.1
2.2
1.9
1.6
2.1
31%
Pacific
11.2
9.5
10.9
14.0
13.3
10.7
-19%
South Africa
2.9
3.0
3.2
2.0
1.8
1.4
-22%
Other Africa/Mauritius
6.6
4.0
3.4
5.7
4.4
4.8
10%
Other
4.6
5.6
4.5
5.0
6.0
6.7
11%
Total
165.0
155.5
160.0
188.6
213.7
236.9
11%
To:
North America
Source: DA
Pacific = PNG, New Zealand & Pacific Islands
Other Europe = Eastern Europe and Western Europe other than EU
South East Asia = Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand
10
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
Mutton exports
Table 3
Australian exports of mutton ('000 tonnes shipped weight)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
% change
Middle East
51.9
42.9
39.5
46.7
40.9
52.8
29%
Greater China
17.2
11.7
9.2
22.1
71.2
60.5
-15%
- China
8.5
6.7
5.1
16.4
57.9
50.1
-14%
- Hong Kong
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.9
6.6
2.4
-64%
- Taiwan
7.7
4.2
3.6
4.9
6.6
8.1
22%
14.6
12.6
9.0
11.7
19.0
25.7
35%
Japan
5.6
3.8
4.5
3.2
3.8
5.1
35%
South Korea
0.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.3
29%
17.9
11.7
6.1
8.1
12.2
17.9
47%
10.8
8.7
4.5
7.5
8.7
13.3
52%
- Mexico
4.2
1.0
0.2
0.4
2.9
3.7
28%
- Other North America
3.0
2.0
1.3
1.3
0.6
1.0
71%
EU
5.4
4.9
3.5
3.7
5.0
4.7
-5%
Other Europe
5.5
4.5
3.2
4.5
4.7
3.8
-20%
Pacific
5.5
1.6
2.0
1.0
2.5
3.3
34%
South Africa
4.4
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.2
0.9
-27%
Other Africa/Mauritius
4.2
2.2
1.6
1.6
4.8
2.2
-54%
Other
1.0
0.6
0.7
1.9
2.6
7.7
195%
Total
134.0
99.1
82.2
106.7
172.0
186.0
8%
To:
South East Asia
North America
- US
Source: DA
Pacific = PNG, New Zealand & Pacific Islands
Other North America = Canada and the Caribbean
Other Europe = CIS, Eastern Europe and Western Europe other than EU
South East Asia = Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
11
Australian market
Strengths
Trend
Weaknesses
Figure 20 Australian retail meat prices*

Overall, economic conditions are expected to improve

The A$ has depreciated 7% in 2014, averaging 90US¢,
1800
in 2015 as the global recovery continues. However,
providing, among other factors, a huge boost to beef
1600
weaker-than-expected global activity during 2014 has
exports. The exchange rate is assumed to remain at its
1400
seen the IMF’s global growth projection for 2015
current level throughout 2015, trading between 80US¢
1200
lowered to 3.8%. Australia is expected to average
and 82US¢.
1000
annual GDP increases of 3% between 2015 and 2019,
up from an average growth rate of 2.7% between 2010

and 2014 (International Monetary Fund – IMF).

consumer price index (CPI) only rising 3% in the June
quarter 2014 year-on-year and 2.3% on the September

volatile to the economic environment with concerns
600
The lower consumer confidence is largely attributed to
households, industry and government adjusting to the
quarter 2014 (latest available).

800
current spending decisions than in the past.
Inflation in Australia remained relatively low, with the
declining mining investment, the weaker Australian
Over the calendar year-to-November, total fresh lamb
dollar and tight fiscal policy. These factors are inevitably
retail value remained steady (up 0.8%) compared to the
impacting confidence, spending and investment by
same period in 2013, while volume declined 1.5%
consumers and business.
(Nielsen – HomeScan). Lamb accounted for 12% of

total meat purchased for the same period.
Fresh meat remained a driver for retailer choice in 2014,
however, dropped from first position in 2013 to the third
position of the top ten drivers (Advantage Shopper
Tracker).

Figure 19 Domestic lamb utilisation
300
According to Foodservice Industry Foresight (FIF) less
people are dining out (59% in June 2014 vs. 57% in
'000 tonnes cwt
November 2014) and in some instances foodservice
operators are serving smaller meat portion sizes to keep
250
menu prices in check.
200
150
100
50
0
91
93
95
97
99
Source: ABS, ABARES, MLA forecasts
12
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15f
beef
Australian consumer confidence remains lower and
about the economy having a greater influence on
17f
f = forecast
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
A¢/kg retail weight
lamb
chicken
pork
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Source: ABS
* = subject to revision
Australian market
Trend
Opportunities

The Australian population grew 1.6% during the year
ended 30 June 2014, to 23.5 million people (Australian
Bureau Statistics). The growth has two main
components: natural increase and net overseas
migration, however, with population projections for
Australia indicating the ageing population will continue.

The composition of the Australian population is
changing, therefore re-shaping Australia’s food
preferences. Our palates have changed from a
predominantly Anglo taste profile to incorporating more
Mediterranean flavours. In recent times this changed
again to include more Asian and Arab/Persian flavours
(where lamb is traditionally consumed).

Figure 21 Australian retail fresh meat shares
Purchase value
Foodservice Industry Foresight (FIF) measures how
operators believe their business will perform in the next
Figure 22 Australian annual sheepmeat expenditure
MAT 29/11/2014
Purchase volume
Chicken
26.8%
hotels/motels.
Mutton
80
Beef
36.5%
Beef
36.9%
data available), the highest confidence were amongst
accounts for 70% of total meat volume) followed by
$/capita
Lamb
Chicken
33.3%
six months. According to the August 2014 results (latest
quick service restaurant chains (where chicken
100
60
40
Lamb
13.2%
Veal
0.9%
other
1.6%
Turkey
1.0%
Seafood
9.1%
Pork
10.8%
Lamb
11.7%
other
1.8%
Source: Nielsen Homescan data
Pork
10.1%
Veal
0.6%
Turkey
1.1%
Seafood
4.5%
20
0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: ABS, MLA estimates
Note: year ending 30 June
Threats

Retail lamb prices averaged $13.06/kg during the first
three quarters of 2014, up 4% on the previous year, the
result of the higher lamb prices registered throughout
the year and the strong overseas demand, especially
from the US and China.
The Bottom Line
Lamb consumed in the Australian market is expected to fall 6.8% year-on-year in 2015, to
194,000 tonnes cwt, following the fall registered in 2014. Despite lamb’s niche position in the
Australian market, the major challenges in 2015 are the expected decline on supply and continued
strong demand from exports markets – forecast to take 55.5% of total production.
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
13
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
Strengths
Weaknesses
General
General



70
the region, with relationships built over many years, and
especially with issues relating to chilled lamb shelf-life,
40
a reputation as a reliable and safe supplier.
which are working on being resolved. TBTs in the
30
Middle East are estimated to cost Australia $480 million
Wide range of destinations for Australian lamb, mutton
per year (across all red meat).
and wealthier Gulf countries.

and potential changes to customs procedures.
protein in a cultural sense.
Lamb
Lamb


Traders can be very sensitive to price movements,
other
3.3%
rack
3.1%
forequarter
4.4%
Mutton

Source: DA
Over the past few years, there has generally been a
declining supply of mutton (with 2014 a significant
exception), and increasing demand from other markets,
especially China, which is making it more difficult to
secure longer-term contracts.
Pellentesque
auctor
tellus,
highly
knowledgeable
aboutsuscipit
the product.
sit amet
pulvinar massa semper ut. Donec bibendum
tellus vel ullamcorper lobortis. Ut quis
augue pulvinar, blandit tellus.
14
carcase
70.1%
sources of lamb or mutton.
styles similar to those seen in Australian supermarkets,
strong supply chains in place and a consumer that is
Figure 24 Lamb exports to the Middle East by cut - 2014
Sharp spikes in price will cause them to look for other
to whole carcases for the wet market trade; from retail
eget ante. Pellentesque auctor
suscipit tellus, sit amet pulvinar massa
Mutton
semper ut. Donec bibendum tellus vel
lobortis. Utis quis
 Theullamcorper
Middle East (collectively)
one ofaugue
the twopulvinar,
major
markets
for
Australian
mutton
–
along
with
China
– with
blandit tellus.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: DA
particularly at the cheaper end of the product range.
the whole carcase, from racks for high-end foodservice,
viverra
workers.
10
0
There is potential for regional safety and stability issues
specific to the region, including certification for Halal
relatively high, and sheepmeat is a preferred source of
Turpis justo,
consequat
sedforviverra
quis,
to cheaper
cuts and
offal products
expatriate
20
to appear at short notice, and there are access issues
Populations and income growth across the region is
The lamb cuts exported to the Middle East come from
'000 tonnes swt
60
50
and live sheep exports, but concentrated in more stable

Figure 23 Lamb exports to the Middle East
There are still many technical barriers to trade (TBTs),
Australia has a long history of supplying sheepmeat into
Trend
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
leg
11.3%
shoulder
7.9%
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
Opportunities
Threats
Figure 25 Mutton exports to the Middle East
60
Lamb
General


In well-established markets, particularly Gulf countries

40
like the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain and Qatar, there is still
become an issue in some countries, reducing the
30
strong growth in the high-end sector that exporters
reserves of sovereign funds and confidence in-country.
20
Dubai is expected to build over 100 new hotels by the
end of the decade, and is hosting the World Expo 2020.

10
Lamb

0
The main threat to ongoing high exports of lamb to the
Qatar will be hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup. There
Middle East is the expected drop in Australia’s supply.
will also be an increase in demand for protein for the
The flip side to this is that the unit price of lamb should
large numbers of construction workers expected for
remain high, particularly in supply chains involved in
these projects.
high-end foodservice and retail.
Forecast lower supplies of lamb mean that exporters
Mutton
may have to diversify their product offerings to high-

value consumers. This has the potential to widen the
product base when supplies increase again in future.
'000 tonnes swt
50
The extended run of low oil prices has the potential to
could look to exploit.
Trend
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: DA
Figure 26 Mutton exports to the Middle East - by market
20
'000 tonnes swt
2013
2014
15
Live sheep imported to the Middle East from east Africa
and India tend to compete with Australian mutton in
10
5
some sectors and are generally cheaper. This is likely to
Mutton
develop further as Australia’s mutton supply falls this

year.
The large construction boom that is expected over the
0
i
ud a
Sa abi
r
A
E
UA
O
m
an
w
Ku
t
ai
t
yp
Eg
Q
ar
at
an
rd
Jo
el
ra
Is
n
Ira
Source: DA
next few years will increase the size of the labour force,
which is a large consumer of Australian (and other)
mutton.
The Bottom Line
Exports of both lamb and mutton to the Middle East are expected to fall, in line with lower
Australian lamb and sheep slaughter. While there are sectors of the Middle East that are more
resistant to the impact of a likely increase in sheepmeat prices, some sectors, particularly lower
cost buyers, will look to find alternate sources of lamb, mutton and live sheep or other meats if
Australian sheepmeat prices rise too much.
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
15
United States
Trend
Strengths



50
there is a large proportion of chilled lamb that is shipped
consume much lamb, but are ‘adventurous eaters’ or
40
to the US, and cuts tend to be higher value, including
‘foodies’, who want to try new flavours. Lamb often fits
legs, racks, shortloins, shanks, and shoulders.
well into this, either as a standalone, or with foreign
20
A large proportion of the lamb that is exported is sold at
10
foundation for the lamb trade to the US to remain strong
foodservice, with simple-to-cook cuts generally sold at
0
in the future.
retail. With improvements in consumer knowledge of the

meals.
Figure 28 Lamb exports to the US by cut - 2014
lamb.
leg
32.1%
Threats
Weaknesses

pork, and poultry.
increase in 2014.
Generally reliant on small sections of the country –
however; these sections have tended to be the better
performing regions, economically, which assists with

US consumers do not buy lamb or have never tried it.
shank
8.7%
shortloin
10.1%
is a need for lobbying and relationship management to
ensure smooth passage of the lamb and mutton trade.
consumption on this relatively expensive protein.
Growing the market can be difficult, as around a third of
Source: DA
carcase
4.5%
shoulder
10.9%
rack
11.6%
The US sheep industry has seen Australia and New
Zealand as a threat to their viability in the past, so there
other
0.6%
manufacturing
2.1%
in a drop in lamb exports to the US, after a large
Lamb tends to be much more expensive than the main
assorted primals
19.4%
The large drop in Australian lamb and mutton
production that is forecast for 2014 is expected to result
competitive meats consumed in the US, including beef,

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: DA
product, other cuts have potential to grow as home
There are peak consumption periods for lamb in spring
coincide with periods of high turn-off for Australian

'000 tonnes swt
30
cuisines.
The long-term relationships built between Australian
(especially around Easter) and Christmas, which tend to

Figure 27 Lamb exports to the US
There are some sections of the community that do not
Large volume, high value market for Australian lamb –
exporters and US importers and end-users lay a good

Opportunities
Figure 29 Mutton exports to the US
25
The Bottom Line
'000 tonnes swt
20
15
The US is expected to remain one of
Australia’s largest export markets by volume
(depending on strength of China), and the
largest by value in 2015, although volumes
will drop as a result of lower Australian lamb
production.
16
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
10
5
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: DA
China
Trend
Strengths

Huge population, with 1.36 billion people.

China’s most popular sheepmeat cuisine, hot pot, uses
Opportunities

breast and flap. The capability of the Australian industry
to supply lamb and mutton breast and flap in large



bring diversity to Chinese foodservice, including
distribution channel for Australian mutton, increasingly
Muslim-based and high-value Western-style cuisines.
busy consumer lifestyles create an opportunity for
Australian mutton to move into value-added and
While the Chinese sheep flock is forecast to increase
convenient forms over the medium-term.
will continue to add value to the Australian sheep
number combined) in response to prices, the
industry. In 2014, 58% of Australian lamb breast and
dominance of small operations in this industry will
expected to see a rise in demand for New Year
flap and 79% of Australian mutton breast and flap was
reportedly see limited gains in productivity over the
celebrations. The coming few months will reveal how
delivered to China.
short-to medium-term
well the market is stocked, given the peak consumption
Concerns over food safety violation to pork and poultry

The most common Chinese sheep breeds do not deliver
in recent years will continue to assist demand for
high meat yield. Many species, such as the Xinjiang fat-
sheepmeat.
tail, deposit a large amount of fat in the body in order to
meet nutritional demands during harsh winters and cold
China consistently ranked the single largest market of
Widespread preference for sheepmeat, traditionally in

2015 is the Chinese “year of the sheep”, which is
season is during winter and spring.
Figure 30 Lamb exports to China
50
springs. Australian lamb is appealing to Chinese
40
consumers.
30
While much of 2015 will continue to see the import tariff
20
the medium to long-term benefits of the ChAFTA is
expected to bring Australia to a level-playing field with
Weaknesses
Sheepmeat consumption is the lowest compared with

'000 tonnes swt
on Australian lamb and mutton remain at the 2014 level,
the northern regions.
New Zealand lamb.

The Chinese do not differentiate between mutton and
lamb, and reportedly have no preference for taste or
major protein sources, at 2.88kg per capita, per annum.

While retail markets in China continued to be the main
moderately (to 290 million head – GIRA sheep and goat
past four years.


quantities to the expanding Chinese foodservice sector
Australian mutton, both volume and value terms for the

The expanding Chinese middle class and migration will
10
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: DA
Figure 31 Lamb exports to China by cut - 2014
flavour between the two. Usage of mutton breast and
Australian mutton demand is heavily influenced by the
flap at foodservice is similar to that of lamb breast and
availability of Chinese mutton supply, which in 2014 was
flap, for the popular hot pot.
high, resulting in competition against imported product.

other
5%
breast & flap
61%
neck
7%
Also as a result of the undifferentiated perception
towards lamb and mutton, China procures relatively
manufacturing
18%
higher value mutton cuts before opting for lamb. For
example, mutton rack exports to China have increased
significantly, which has been assisted by the growing
Source: DA
shoulder
9%
Western-style foodservice demand.
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
17
China
Trend
Threats

Local lamb and mutton prices are relatively competitive
compared with imported product.

50
is strong, mostly associated with freshness (MLA Global
40
Figure 33 Mutton exports to China by cut - 2014
'000 tonnes swt
breast & flap
37%
other
8%
30
New Zealand remained a major competitor to Australia
20
in China in 2014, and is likely to remain as competitive
10
in 2015, particularly with their tariff advantages.

60
Local consumer perceptions towards domestic product
Consumer Research).

Figure 32 Mutton exports to China
shoulder
5%
manufacturing
3%
leg
8%
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
The ongoing competition from China’s domestic
Source: DA
Source: DA
carcase
38%
production.
The Bottom Line
Despite the ongoing strong demand, Australian lamb exports to China are expected to decline
slightly in volume. Despite this, the value of lamb exports is expected to offset the fall in volume.
Australian mutton exports to China will feel the impact from reduced Australian production in
2015, which combined with competition from local sheepmeat production, is likely to see a yearon-year reduction in exports.
The strong market fundamentals, do however, place China in good stead for sustained
Australian sheepmeat demand.
18
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
Hong Kong
Trend
Strengths

Geographically and culturally close to China, combined
Threats

Hong Kong imports sheepmeat from 16 countries,
with being one of the better business operating
ranging from large specialised suppliers such as
environments in Asia, means that in sheepmeat
Australia and New Zealand, to smaller suppliers in
consumption in Hong Kong foodservice and modern
Europe, South America and the US. During January to
grocery set to continue leading the premium food dining
November 2014, while Australian lamb exporters
trends in the region.
increased focus on the US market, the UK emerged as
the third largest supplier of sheepmeat to Hong Kong,
Weaknesses

Recent street protests have had a short-term impact on
the Hong Kong economy, with growth expected to
register 2.7% for 2015, potentially impacting high-end
with 12% market share. While UK sheepmeat will
continue to be supplied to the main EU markets, the
weaker Euro, strong demand from Hong Kong and an
expected slight increase in sheepmeat production in the
UK will continue to facilitate competition against
Australian product over the short-term.
dining.
Opportunities
Figure 35 Mutton exports to Greater China
80
'000 tonnes swt
China

The longer-term will continue to see the Hong Kong
foodservice sector benefit from tourism, with increasing
visitors arriving in Hong Kong and spending on food
Hong Kong
Taiwan
60
40
and luxury goods.
20
Figure 34 Lamb exports to Greater China
60
'000 tonnes swt
China
Hong Kong
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: DA
Taiwan
50
40
The Bottom Line
30
20
Sheepmeat exports to Hong Kong are expected to decline in 2015, amid expectations on
reduced supply from Australia.
10
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: DA
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
19
Taiwan
Trend
Strengths

Possessing similar cultural beliefs to China about eating


Retailers continue to announce expansion plans,
Threats

New Zealand is the major competitor for Australian
red meat, sheepmeat is a highly valued protein, and
providing opportunities for Australian value added
sheepmeat in Taiwan. While New Zealand was focused
often used in foodservice in traditional Taiwanese hot
sheepmeat products to further penetrate the retail level.
on the US and Chinese market in 2014, Australia
pots.

Opportunities

Taiwan registered the highest growth in foreign tourist
Relatively high consumer incomes (GDP per capita US$
arrivals in the world in the first half of 2014 (27%), with
21,618) in Taiwan will continue to encourage consumers
the tourism market playing a critical role in the
towards high-end fine dining.
foodservice sector.
Dynamic tourism sector that promotes consumption of

sheepmeat at foodservice.
became the main imported sheepmeat supplier.
However, market share will continue to fluctuate over
the short-term, with Taiwan sheepmeat imports
continuing to face competition from major markets in
the US, China and the Middle East.
The majority of lamb exports to Taiwan have been
trimmings. The opportunity to expand the cut profile to
meet Taiwanese foodservice requirements should add
Weaknesses

value to the overall sheepmeat industry.

While there is an aging population, there is an
Similar to beef, Taiwan sheepmeat consumption is
opportunity for products to cater for that market
dependent on imports, which have not increased
segment, with small-sized packed and prepared meals.
significantly over the past five years.

Competition from traditionally consumed proteins such
as pork and poultry.

The aging Taiwanese population will have an implication
on how sheepmeat will be eaten in the medium-term.
The Bottom Line
Sheepmeat exports to Taiwan are expected to decline in 2015, amid expectation on reduced
supply from Australia.
20
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
European Union
Trend
Strengths


Sheepmeat exports to the EU increased 12% in 2014,
Opportunities

relatively tight throughout 2015. For the year ending
14,043 tonnes swt. In contrast, mutton exports were
September 2015, NZ lamb slaughter is forecast to fall
subdued, with shipments down 5% year-on-year, at
3.3% on the previous year, to 19.5 million head – largely
4,716 tonnes swt. The United Kingdom remained the
due to a greater number of hoggets retained. Lamb
major destination, followed by France.
slaughter is also forecast to decrease 2.6% for the
2014-15 season, to 357,100 tonnes cwt (Beef + Lamb
New Zealand).
calendar year allocated quota (19,186 tonnes cwe) before
year end in 2014, with exports at 30 November at 19,130


with GDP growth forecast at 2.7% in 2015.
Figure 37 Lamb exports to EU by cut - 2014
boneless loin
1.5%
chump
6.6%
manufacturing
4.2%
rack
0.3%
EU sheepmeat production is expected to remain stable.
The A$ weakened significantly against both the Euro
Interestingly, live and meat exports are increasing,
and British pound throughout 2014, assisting the price
especially to Libya for live animals and Hong Kong for
competitiveness of Australian product.
meat (EU Commission).
Australian sheepmeat exports to the EU are limited by a
mutton
The UK economy, Australia’s largest lamb and mutton
market in the region is expected to continue growing,
Weaknesses
lamb
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
production and strong demand from other markets for

24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: DA
cwe, or 99.7% of the quota. Reduced New Zealand
NZ product, assisted Australian shipments in 2014.

'000 tonnes swt
Encouragingly, NZ production is anticipated to remain
to 18,759 tonnes swt, with lamb shipments up 20%, at
Interestingly, sheepmeat exports to the EU filled the
Figure 36 Sheepmeat exports to EU
leg
60.9%
shank
24.6%
Threats

Despite the decline in NZ lamb production expected for
19,176 tonne carcase weight equivalent (cwe) Tariff Rate
2015, NZ has a distinct advantage within the EU market,
Quota (TRQ). In-quota shipments do not incur any duty,
dominating the Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) allocation, with
while out of quota shipments incur a 12.8% and 902-
228,254 tonnes cwe (80% of the total).
Figure 38 - NZ sheepmeat exports to the EU
200
3,118€/tonne duty (depending on the product).The
sheepmeat TRQ includes lamb, mutton and goatmeat.
other
2.0%
Source: DA
'000 tonnes swt
UK
France
Germany
Belgium
Netherlands
others
150
100
The Bottom Line
50
Australian lamb and mutton exports to the EU are expected to remain steady in 2015, with its
allocated quota forecast to be filled. The tight Australian supply forecast for 2015, combined with
the quota, are likely to constrain further growth.
0
10
20
11
20
Source: Statistics New Zealand/GTA
12
20
*
14
20
13
20
*Jan to Oct period
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
21
Japan
Trend
Strengths


Small but steady market with established users

Tight supplies from New Zealand (Australia’s major
(Genghis Khan sheepmeat barbecue restaurants), with
competitor in the market). Anecdotally, more end users
high proportion of chilled lamb shipments.
have become familiar and loyal to Australian lamb, after
switching from the NZ product.
Besides increased supplies from Australia, the
Figure 39 Australian lamb exports to Japan
14
A$/kg
'000 tonnes swt
Chilled (LHS)
Frozen (LHS)
average value (RHS)
12
10
8
10
8
6
The Japanese government has a strong commitment to
6
4
tourism in Hokkaido (major sheepmeat consumption
promote tourism, as the market moves towards the
4
region in Japan) assisted strong growth in sheepmeat
2020 Tokyo Olympics. International tourists –
2
exports to Japan during 2014.
particularly from China and South East Asia – are major
0
improving economy and recovery of international

Opportunities

customers of Genghis Khan restaurants in Hokkaido,
Average export values ($/kg) also improved year-on-
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: DA, GTA
10
11
12
13
14
2014 value = Jan to Nov average
along with locals and Japanese tourists.
year, proving the market’s ability to keep up with
increasing world red meat prices.
2

Slow but gradual penetration of lamb menus to mid-tohigh class restaurants, and a diversification of lamb
recipes.
Weaknesses
Figure 40 Australian mutton exports to Japan
12
'000 tonnes swt
Chilled (LHS)
A$/kg
Frozen (LHS)
average value (RHS)
8
10
6

Fragile economy – the ‘Abenomics’ has brought a
Threats
weakening currency and rising inflation, while there has
been no steady increases in household income.

Aging and declining population – by 2024, almost one in
three people will be over 65 years old, with total

Sheepmeat is not considered as a major protein in
Japan, and its consumption volume is still limited at
around 200 grams per person (in comparison with 6kg
of beef, and 12kg of pork and chicken).
4
weakening of the Japanese Yen could limited Japanese
2
ability to procure.
0
4
2
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: DA, GTA
The Bottom Line
Australian lamb export volumes to Japan
during 2015 are likely to ease from 2014,
largely impacted by reduced supplies from
Australia.
The market’s ability to cope with stronger
prices will continue to be tested in 2015, on the
back of ongoing strong buying from the US, the
Middle East and China.
22
6
Anticipated tight Australian supplies, and further
population declining 4% from 2014, to 121 million.

8
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
10
11
12
13
14
2014 value = Jan to Nov average
Figure 41 Hokkaido foreign tourists and nationality
1600
'000 people
China
Korea
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Australia
2014 estimate
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
00
01
02
03
04
Source: Hokkaido Government, MLA.
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14*
2014* = estimate based on Q1 number and growth %
Other
Malaysia
Papua New Guinea
Singapore



In 2014, 7,389 tonnes swt of lamb was shipped to

Singapore received 2,124 tonnes swt of lamb in 2014,
Malaysia, up 18% year-on-year and 53% above the
9,033 tonnes swt, back 28% on 2013 and 17% below
up 47% year-on-year and 30% above the five-year
five-year average. The majority of product was frozen
the five-year average. More than two thirds of product
average. Leg shipments (688 tonnes swt) were the
shoulder (5,137 tonnes swt), followed by frozen carcase
was frozen breast and flap (6,315 tonnes swt), while
largest export segment, followed by whole carcases
(978 tonnes swt) and frozen leg (483 tonnes swt).
frozen shoulder (1,094 tonnes swt) and neck (920
(307 tonnes swt).
tonnes swt) were also valuable exports.
Mutton shipments to Malaysia were 15,939 tonnes swt


Mutton shipments also increased to 9,052 tonnes swt
Primarily frozen breast and flap, and partially offsetting
for the year, up 22% year-on-year and 45% above the
more than double the five-year average. Over half the
the reduced volume of lamb was 3,135 tonnes swt of
five-year average. Frozen carcase shipments (4,170
total shipments were made up of frozen carcase orders
mutton was exported in 2014, up 28% year-on-year and
tonnes swt) made up the bulk of exports, with frozen leg
(8,421 tonnes swt), while frozen manufacturing (3,116
36% above the five-year average.
(2,882 tonnes swt) and manufacturing (1,354 tonnes
over the twelve-month period, up 43% year-on-year and
tonnes swt) and frozen shoulder (2,711 tonnes swt) also
accounted for significant portions.

Lamb shipments in 2014 to Papua New Guinea came to

swt) also making up significant amounts.
As Papua New Guinea enters into a phase of economic
growth, following the development of the country’s

While the population of about 5.5 million is expected to
With GDP growth forecast to outstrip the increase in
natural resources, Business Monitor International has
grow at an average rate of 2%, between 2014 and 2020,
population – GDP (US$) is forecast to grow from $329
forecast GDP (US$) to more than double from $16
GDP (US$) is forecast to grow at 8% (Business Monitor
billion in 2014, to $557 billion by 2020, and the
billion in 2014 to $38 billion by 2020. While stability is
International), putting upward pressure on incomes and
population is forecast to grow from 30 million in 2014 to
not guaranteed in the country of almost 7.5 million
supporting demand for Australian lamb and mutton
almost 33 million by 2020 (Business Monitor
people, the impacts of economic growth will support
exports.
International) – rising incomes and an expanding middle
demand for Australian lamb and mutton exports.
class are expected to keep demand for Australian lamb
and mutton exports strong.
Figure 42 Mutton exports to other markets
30
Figure 43 Lamb exports to other markets
'000 tonnes swt
Papua New Guinea
Malaysia
Singapore
25
25
'000 tonnes swt
Papua New Guinea
Malaysia
Singapore
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: DA
The Bottom Line
Although expected to grow in GDP and
population over the medium-term, demand from
Australia’s smaller markets will be constrained
by tight Australian supplies and the stretch for
rising incomes to meet increasing international
meat prices.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: DA
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
23
Live exports
Summary
Markets


During 2014, WA dominated the live sheep trade, accounting for 83% of the total live
sheep exports, which was steady year-on-year, while SA, second largest in volume,
accounted for 13%.

Of the WA ports, Fremantle was the most active, averaging 156,164 head per month, up
20,000 head on the previous year.

Kuwait was the largest market for 2014, accounting for just over 706,000 head in the
eleven months to November – and likely to remain the primary market again in 2015.

Qatar was also a busy market in 2014, with approximately 474,000 head shipped, down
slightly from the previous year, although still a valuable customer.

Jordan imported 274,000 Australian sheep in 2014, also down slightly from year-ago
levels, yet remaining an important market for exporters.

Interestingly, to the three largest markets, shipments declined from the corresponding
time frame in the previous year. However, this was offset by a large increase to a number
of other markets, including Bahrain, Israel, Egypt, Oman and the UAE.

Going forward, strong demand is anticipated from not only the larger markets, but also
the growing countries and recently re-opened markets, adding important value to the
Australian sheep industry.
Australian live sheep exports during 2014 are estimated to have increased 17% from the
previous year, to 2.3 million head. A further increase is expected for 2015, to 2.4 million
head.

Shipments are anticipated to continue edging higher, largely in response to growing
international demand, particularly from the Middle East, where there is strong sheepmeat
demand, especially during religious festivals.

Assuming uninterrupted trade, live sheep exports are forecast to increase to 3 million
head by 2019 – up significantly from the 2014 volume, yet still well below the numbers
from one decade-ago.
Table 4
Australian live sheep exports (head)
2013
2014e
% change
2009
2010
2011
2012
Kuwait
948,271
1,076,455
956,725
706,644
876,004
800,000
-9%
Qatar
352,695
321,415
395,728
531,894
560,762
570,000
2%
Bahrain
747,827
535,731
354,450
249,741
0
280,000
-
Turkey
0
215,038
352,352
245,147
120
0
-
Jordan
470,511
265,986
217,067
327,960
287,792
320,000
11%
Israel
23,400
42,000
56,600
64,007
54,164
95,125
76%
Oman
289,223
69,073
41,025
19,892
58,476
61,646
5%
UAE
130,312
78,748
37,385
33,211
99,795
140,000
40%
Saudi Arabia
576,147
262,500
24,000
69,000
0
0
Other
29,223
101,625
23,145
31,120
36,260
33,229
-8%
Total
3,567,609
2,968,571
2,458,477 2,278,616
1,973,373
2,300,000
17%
To:
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
24
-
e = estimate based on 11 months data
Figure 44 Australian live sheep exports
8
million sheep and lambs
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
97 98 99 00 01
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13 14e 15f 16f 17f 18f
e = estimate, f = forecast
Competitor summary – New Zealand


The New Zealand (NZ) sheep flock, at June 2014, had

For the year ending September 2015, lamb slaughter is
declined 3.2% year-on-year, to 29.8 million head. Sheep
forecast to fall 3.3% on the previous year, to 19.5 million
numbers in the North Island were back 2.4%, at 14.6
head – largely due to a greater number of hoggets
million head, the result of two consecutive seasons
retained. The decline in slaughter, however, is not
affected by drought, while the South Island flock
expected to be offset by an increase in the average
decreased 3.9%, to 15.2 million head, primarily due to
carcase weight, with lamb production forecast to
land use change for dairy conversions.
decrease 2.6% for the 2014-15 season, to 357,100
tonnes cwt.
The NZ lamb crop in spring 2014 was estimated to be

stable on the previous year, at 25.6 million head,
Following high mutton slaughter levels throughout 2013-
reflective of good seasonal conditions which were
14 due to dry conditions and dairy expansion, slaughter
somewhat offset by a decline in the breeding ewe flock
is forecast to tighten 21% in 2014-15, to 3.3 million
due to dairy expansion. From scanning results earlier in
head.
the season, the national lambing percentage was
expected to lift 1.5% in 2014-15 – although seasonal
conditions during the spring lambing period would be a
key determinant in the final lamb crop.

NZ lamb exports are forecast 2.6% lower in 2014-15,
compared to the previous year, at 297,000 tonnes swt.
Despite the smaller volume, the average FOB value of
total lamb shipments is expected to rise 6.2% year-onyear, reflecting strengthening market prices and a
depreciating NZ dollar.
Source: Beef and Lamb New Zealand
Figure 45 NZ monthly lamb slaughter
1400
Figure 47 Sheepmeat export volume Aus v NZ
Figure 46 NZ lamb exports
'000 head
140
2012
2013
2014
'000 tonnes swt
2013
120
1200
2014
60
600
40
400
0
200
EU
0
J
F
Source: Statistics NZ
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
New Zealand
450
20
400
Australia
500
80
800
'000 tonnes cwe
550
100
1000
600
U
S
e
dl
id
M
Source: Beef + Lamb New Zealand
st
Ea
C
na
hi
C
a
ad
an
O
er
th
350
300
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Source: FAO-OECD
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
25
Statistical appendices
26
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
Appendix 1 – Mutton 20x10
Table 5
Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – continued on next page
Total (All Cuts)
Carcase
Leg
Manufacturing
2014 tonnage
Net change
%
change
2014
tonnage
Net change
% change
2014
tonnage
World Total
18 5 , 9 9 2
13 , 9 4 7
8%
83,060
1, 0 5 9
1%
33,203
4,766
17 %
17 , 3 6 1
2,431
16 %
23,892
3 , 115
15 %
CHINA
50,064
- 7,825
- 14 %
19 , 2 5 8
- 7,768
- 29%
4,239
- 2 , 15 2
- 34%
1, 3 7 0
- 596
- 30%
18 , 7 5 9
2,483
15 %
SAUDI ARABIA
18 , 5 3 8
5,777
45%
7,483
2,605
53%
5,072
2,352
86%
2 , 8 13
4 11
17 %
- 11
- 10 0 %
MALAYSIA
15 , 9 3 9
4,804
43%
8,421
2,964
54%
1, 2 7 0
480
6 1%
3 , 116
50
2%
4
3
428%
USA
13 , 2 7 3
4,526
52%
8,756
3,568
69%
2,565
840
49%
75
55
288%
0
0
DUBAI
12 , 3 5 6
2,466
25%
6,860
1, 10 0
19 %
3,901
1, 13 6
4 1%
19 6
74
60%
7
-5
- 4 1%
9,052
1, 6 5 1
22%
4,409
531
14 %
2,950
648
28%
1, 3 5 4
425
46%
0
-1
- 64%
TAIWAN
8 , 10 3
1, 4 5 3
22%
1, 5 7 1
- 570
- 27%
81
- 25
- 23%
3,537
1, 3 9 2
65%
1, 4 0 3
522
59%
OMAN
6,772
1, 3 14
24%
5,424
1, 10 1
25%
1, 2 9 5
208
19 %
KUWAIT
5,751
775
16 %
3,974
793
25%
953
245
35%
368
- 16 9
- 3 1%
0
JAPAN
5 , 116
1, 3 2 9
35%
18 1
80
80%
1, 6 5 9
495
43%
1, 6 3 0
203
14 %
0
UNITED KINGDOM
4,271
41
1%
3,786
291
8%
49
- 264
- 84%
0
Destination
SINGAPORE
0
Net change % change
2014
tonnage
Breast & flap
Net change % change
2014
tonnage
0
Net change % change
0
MEXICO
3 , 7 14
8 19
28%
1, 3 4 5
477
55%
5
5
EGYPT
3,623
1, 2 0 1
50%
1, 6 18
832
10 6 %
785
263
50%
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
3,253
- 563
- 15 %
751
- 240
- 24%
1, 5 4 8
10
1%
95
- 97
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
3 , 13 5
677
28%
5
- 10
- 69%
9
- 46
- 83%
12 5
38
MOROCCO
2,860
91
3%
2,835
66
2%
25
25
QATAR
2,720
758
39%
1, 8 6 9
561
43%
620
10 3
20%
20
5
29%
HONG KONG
2,368
- 4,273
- 64%
1, 6 2 9
- 3 , 3 19
- 67%
14 8
- 3 15
- 68%
13
- 17
- 56%
297
- 5 14
- 63%
1, 7 11
651
6 1%
0
- 118
- 10 0 %
333
18 3
12 2 %
750
333
80%
17
- 24
- 59%
MAURITIUS
0
0
0
10 2
-5
- 4%
- 50%
2
- 10
- 83%
43%
2,567
555
28%
0
0
0
1, 6 8 5
- 1, 5 4 9
- 48%
1, 5 6 0
- 1, 4 2 8
- 48%
8
2
30%
21
21
-9
- 10 0 %
Middle East
52,831
11, 9 2 0
29%
2 9 , 6 17
7 , 119
32%
12 , 8 6 1
3,987
45%
3,472
396
13 %
2 15
22
11%
SE Asia
25,679
6 , 7 10
35%
13 , 2 2 3
3,667
38%
4,332
1, 112
35%
4,559
5 16
13 %
4
3
14 1%
VIETNAM
Source: Department of Agriculture
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
27
Appendix 1 – Mutton 20x10
Table 5
Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – from previous page
Shoulder
Destination
2014
tonnage
Bone-in loin
Backstrap
% change
2014
tonnage
Net
change
% change
2014
tonnage
Net
% change
change
2014
tonnage
784
13
2%
3,097
75
2%
2 , 117
229
- 40
- 15 %
2
Net
change
Shank
Rack
% change
2014
tonnage
Net
change
% change
2014
Net
tonnage change
%
change
265
14 %
2,824
431
18 %
3,096
793
34%
- 205
- 99%
766
48
7%
1, 6 3 4
1, 13 8
230%
World Total
12 , 5 9 6
760
6%
CHINA
2,352
- 1, 0 3 9
- 3 1%
0
SAUDI ARABIA
2,025
535
36%
-5
- 10 0 %
842
- 79
- 9%
9
5
13 2 %
92
21
29%
84
17
26%
MALAYSIA
2 , 7 11
1, 2 6 3
87%
- 29
- 60%
49
- 11
- 19 %
10 0
4
5%
19 2
115
14 7 %
18
- 32
- 64%
USA
1, 5 3 6
114
8%
0
-6
- 10 0 %
4
4
5
2
64%
291
- 29
- 9%
30
7
28%
DUBAI
10 4
-5
- 5%
86
57
19 7 %
75
50
19 9 %
19
- 39
- 68%
262
65
33%
608
- 18
- 3%
SINGAPORE
36
29
395%
0
48
2
5%
16 5
24
17 %
18
6
52%
20
4
24%
0
- 10 0 %
- 79
692
321
86%
3
-7
- 67%
2 14
15 1
236%
389
- 284
- 42%
19
12
16 6 %
0
2
-4
- 68%
1
-4
- 8 1%
29
9
49%
KUWAIT
14
- 12 1
- 90%
JAPAN
77
-7
- 8%
TAIWAN
OMAN
1
335
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
741
- 18 6
17 %
- 20%
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
12 7
27
26%
0
EGYPT
MOROCCO
0
QATAR
0
524
-2
- 10 0 %
10
-5
- 34%
-1
- 10 0 %
99
80
423%
115
- 91
- 44%
-4
- 8 1%
16
11
2 7 1%
1, 4 3 3
539
60%
89
17
24%
9
1
12 %
-3
- 10 0 %
5
- 34
- 87%
- 44
- 10 0 %
56
12 %
0
7
0
-6
- 45%
0
0
483
56
13 %
68
- 65
- 49%
86
16
23%
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
16
85
8008%
-3
0
0
19
52%
-1
118
71
- 24%
0
0
57
16
16
- 10 0 %
1
- 15 6
15 0 %
493
208
13
- 10 0 %
2
15
15
16
-3
- 17 %
1
- 13
- 96%
0
29
11
64%
- 10 0 %
0
-1
- 75%
73%
0
0
- 72%
-8
- 38%
5
- 17
- 78%
7 10 %
52
- 94
- 64%
0
- 21
- 99%
1
1
Middle East
2 , 18 2
16 1
8%
752
245
48%
1, 4 7 3
- 12 1
- 8%
84
- 20
- 19 %
556
14 9
37%
881
- 60
- 6%
SE Asia
2,765
1, 3 0 6
90%
20
- 29
- 60%
12 0
2
1%
266
29
12 %
226
13 7
15 3 %
58
- 27
- 32%
VIETNAM
- 56%
- 28
2
- 10 0 %
0
- 63
0
0
16
0
2
MAURITIUS
50
0
-1
HONG KONG
3
- 10 0 %
0
2,295
MEXICO
20
0
UNITED KINGDOM
28
Net
change
Forequarter
0
0
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
Appendix 2 – Lamb 20x10
Table 6
Australian lamb exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – continued on next page
Total (All Cuts)
Breast & flap
2014 tonnage
Net change
%
change
2014
tonnage
Net change
236,908
23,194
11%
42,290
USA
4 6 , 19 4
7 , 0 14
18 %
15
CHINA
38,842
- 693
- 2%
DUBAI
15 , 0 9 7
1, 8 7 6
JORDAN
14 , 4 0 8
BAHRAIN
11, 9 7 3
HONG KONG
10 , 6 0 1
3,062
4 1%
UNITED KINGDOM
10 , 5 6 1
1, 4 3 7
16 %
JAPAN
10 , 12 7
2,430
32%
QATAR
10 , 0 7 8
4,059
67%
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
9,033
- 3,448
MALAYSIA
7,389
CANADA
6 , 19 1
Destination
World Total
Leg
Shoulder
% change
2014
tonnage
3,134
8%
38,587
8,407
28%
34,774
4,233
14%
18,056
2,568
17%
11
266%
14,818
2,545
2 1%
5,046
1, 0 0 8
25%
976
291
42%
23,659
3,327
16 %
57
- 439
- 89%
3,323
- 3,378
- 50%
7,009
1, 12 4
19 %
14 %
3
1
40%
2,861
465
19 %
1,792
28
2%
24
22
972%
1, 6 6 7
13 %
0
0
1,236.0
590
9 1%
1,732
239
16 %
23
- 229
- 9 1%
- 1, 3 7 8
- 10 %
0
9
5
12 1%
0
- 25
- 10 0 %
- 15
- 10 0 %
5,489
Net change % change
2014
tonnage
Manufacturing
Net change % change
2014
tonnage
Net change % change
1, 7 9 9
49%
383
19 6
10 5 %
256
- 60
- 19 %
2,716
1, 3 8 9
10 5 %
-1
- 10 0 %
6,295
1, 8 8 3
43%
23
8
52%
527
- 1, 13 8
- 68%
8
-2
- 16 %
678
13 7
25%
5,915
2 , 18 7
59%
2,413
- 37
- 2%
367
92
34%
94
1
1%
17
1
5%
- 28%
6,315
- 2,576
- 29%
284
- 83
- 23%
1,094
- 21
- 2%
187
- 16 4
- 47%
1, 13 3
18 %
17
- 10
- 37%
541
-7
- 1%
5,139
1, 111
28%
68
- 42
- 38%
628
11%
0
0
2,724
484
22%
635
17 1
37%
142
7
5%
0
SAUDI ARABIA
5 , 12 6
1, 3 4 3
36%
-1
- 10 0 %
2,094
747
55%
768
375
95%
41
- 45
- 53%
SOUTH KOREA
4,837
1, 6 6 2
52%
1,123
532
90%
125
44
54%
2,162
697
48%
689
17 9
35%
TAIWAN
3,553
1, 7 19
94%
324
18 7
13 7 %
57
54
15 5 5 %
312
35
13 %
2,387
1, 2 7 8
115 %
KUWAIT
3,203
- 947
- 23%
0
32
- 21
- 40%
- 82
- 10 0 %
176
- 15 4
- 47%
ABU DHABI
2,382
- 12 0
- 5%
0
132
- 31
- 19 %
86
- 33
- 28%
0
1,764
657
59%
1
1
688
234
52%
253
62
33%
429
203
89%
192
62
48%
0
47
47
20
6
FRANCE
2 , 14 8
751
54%
SINGAPORE
2 , 12 4
674
47%
SWITZERLAND
2 , 10 3
507
32%
Middle East
64,249
4,472
7%
62
26
75%
7,260
2 , 15 6
42%
280
- 421
- 60%
5,064
601
0%
SE Asia
11, 4 5 8
1, 7 2 5
18 %
228
16 2
249%
1,703
44
3%
158
- 47
- 23%
5,712
1, 2 6 2
0%
183
16 9
117 5 %
0
4 1%
0
Source: Department of Agriculture
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
29
Appendix 2 – Lamb 20x10
Table 6
Australian lamb exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – from previous page
Carcase
Forequarter
2014
tonnage
Net
change
% change
2014
tonnage
Net
change
% change
2014
tonnage
59,486
-1,098
-2%
11,500
1,837
19%
3,584
1,237
11,048
954
9%
5,366
1, 3 5 2
34%
0
0
CHINA
634
- 1, 9 5 6
- 76%
219
14 4
19 2 %
484
409
DUBAI
8,649
944
12 %
999
259
35%
108
2,308
Destination
World Total
USA
Shortloin
Net
% change
change
% change
2014
tonnage
Net
change
% change
6,834
1,236
22%
10,710
991
10%
6,195
217
4%
4,653
9 12
24%
4,036
- 73
- 2%
0
0
18 4 6 %
546%
15
10
18 3 %
174
-9
- 5%
2,860
81
3%
51
90%
72
4
6%
400
62
18 %
1
-4
- 76%
760
49%
3
2
14 3 %
89
15
2 1%
48
38
396%
1
1
18 4 %
53%
8,912
267
3%
41
- 32
- 44%
BAHRAIN
- 1, 3 4 3
- 10 %
6
0
- 8%
110
- 735
- 87%
395
- 11
- 3%
2
2
0
- 88
- 10 0 %
JAPAN
168
31
23%
747
115
18 %
QATAR
9,292
3,905
73%
218
35
18
18
4302%
17
5
988
264
36%
164
- 30
- 16 %
37
- 36
- 49%
783
60
8%
SAUDI ARABIA
1,073
38
4%
430
10 0
30%
99
53
SOUTH KOREA
3
0
1%
194
74
6 1%
44
28
TAIWAN
38
- 26
- 4 1%
41
2
5%
0
0
KUWAIT
2,853
- 638
- 18 %
39
- 77
- 66%
58
36
16 1%
ABU DHABI
2,154
- 34
- 2%
7
-9
- 57%
- 12
- 10 0 %
UNITED KINGDOM
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MALAYSIA
CANADA
FRANCE
SINGAPORE
0
0
307
19
0
SWITZERLAND
Middle East
SE Asia
6%
Neck
Net
change
11,957
0
0
Shank
2014
tonnage
JORDAN
HONG KONG
30
Rack
0
0
- 7%
0
30
10
52%
65
7
13 %
63
62
10 6 0 0 %
2,890
522
22%
45
2
6%
31
-3
- 8%
2014
Net
tonnage change
%
change
0
1,055
402
62%
0
23
-4
- 16 %
19 %
17
9
112 %
0
0
14 0 4 %
9
1
9%
46%
26
7
38%
29
- 28
- 49%
72
28
- 13
- 10 0 %
65
35
115 %
265
1,348
94
8%
451
115 %
0
-5
- 96%
158
62
64%
18 4 %
8
6
3 16 %
210
12 0
13 2 %
22
4
22%
8
8
15 5 7 0 %
307
19 5
17 6 %
2
- 30
- 93%
0
-1
- 73%
4
-5
- 54%
40
-4
- 9%
-2
- 10 0 %
0
0
220
53
32%
338
9
3%
14
14
0
4
4
2308%
0
63%
920
- 524
- 36%
- 2 13
- 45%
49
12
33%
- 12 3
- 2 1%
0
0
3
2
93%
333
49
17 %
8 1%
163
9
6%
0
- 10 0 %
80
52
18 5 %
0
0
210
94
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
985%
0
45,030
600
1%
2,003
290
17 %
2,803
876
45%
87
9
12 %
734
15 5
27%
134
61
83%
1,567
358
30%
871
4
0%
5
- 16
- 76%
315
116
58%
566
- 19 2
- 25%
68
- 14
- 17 %
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
Sources and acknowledgements
This document was produced and compiled by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA),
with the help of industry participants in the annual cattle projections workshop.
Baseline forecasts were also provided by the Centre for International Economics’
Global Meat Industries (GMI) model.
The sources listed below are also duly acknowledged for the provision of
statistical, analytical and forecast information used in this document.
Advantage Shopper Tracker
China Customs Bureau
Millward Brown
Agriculture and Livestock Industry
Corporation (ALIC), Japan
Department of Agriculture (DA), Australia
Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
(MAFF), Japan
EU Comission
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and
Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)
Eurostat
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) – United
Nations
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
Copyright of ABS data resides with the Commonwealth
of Australia. Used with permission
Food Industry Foresight (FIF)
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
Frost and Sullivan
Roy Morgan
Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX)
Global Trade Atlas (Australia)
Statistics NZ
Australian Wool Innovation (AWI)
Hong Kong Customs and Statistics Department
Steiner Consulting Group, USA
Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee
(AWPFC)
IMA Asia
The Economic Service – Beef + Lamb New Zealand
Infoscan NZ
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
United States Department of Commerce
Business Monitor International (BMI)
Japan's Nissei Research Institute
Weeks Consulting Services
Centre for International Economics (CIE)
Japan Foodservice Association
World Bank
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Japan Chain Stores Association
Beef + Lamb New Zealand
(formerly Meat & Wool New Zealand)
Ministry of Finance, Japan
Nielsen Homescan
NZ Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
31
Acronyms
AANZFT
A –
AANZFTA
ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA
GT
A
TA
–
Global Trade Atlas
ABARES
–
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics
and Sciences
IMF
–
International Monetary Fund
JAEP
A
JAEPA
–
Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement
ABS
–
Australian Bureau of Statistics
JFY
–
Japanese fiscal year (April to March)
ASEAN
–
Association of South East Asian Nations
lwt
–
Liveweight
AWPFC
–
Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee
MENA
–
Middle East North Africa
BMI
–
Business Monitor International
MLA
–
Meat & Livestock Australia
ChAFT
A
ChAFTA
–
China-Australia Free Trade Agreement
NLRS
–
National Livestock Reporting Service (Meat & Livestock Australia)
CIE
–
Centre for International Economics
NZ
–
New Zealand
PNG
–
Papua New Guinea
CIF
–
Cost insurance and freight (export price at destination)
CIS
–
Commonwealth of Independent States
CME
C ME
–
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
cwt
–
Carcase weight
DA
–
Department of Agriculture, Australia
D FFA
AT
–
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
EMI
–
Eastern Market Indicator (wool price)
EP
A
PA
–
Economic Partnership Agreement
ESCAS
–
Exporter Supply Chain Assurance System
EU
–
European Union
FA S
–
Free alongside ship (export price before departure)
FA O
–
Food and Agriculture Organisation (United Nations)
FOB
–
Free on board ship (export price loaded on ship before departure)
FT
A
TA
–
Free Trade Agreement
32
RBA
–
Reserve Bank of Australia
SEA
–
South East Asia
swt
–
Shipped weight
TPP
–
Trans Pacific Partnership
TRQ
–
Tariff Rate Quota
UAE
–
United Arab Emirates
UK
–
United Kingdom
US
–
United States
USDA
–
United States Department of Agriculture
WTO
–
World Trade Organization
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
Notes
MLA’s Market information & Industry insights – Australian sheep industry projections 2015
33
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North Sydney NSW 2060
Phone: 02 9463 9333
Fax: 02 9463 9393
Free call: 1800 023 100 (Australia only)
Email: [email protected]
www.mla.com.au