1. Ingeniería

US
Summary Indicators
Gross Domestic Product
4.0
Industrial Production
Four-quarter percentage change
115
3.5
110
3.0
105
Q4
2.5
2.5
95
1.5
90
1.0
85
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
80
Unemployment Rate
11
Dec
106.5
100
2.0
0.5
Index, 1997=100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Price Index
Percent
5
10
12-Month Percentage Change
4
9
3
8
2
7
1
6
5
Dec
0.8
Dec
5.6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Output Indicators
GDP Growth
8
Industrial Production
Annualized Percentage Change
10
8.4 8.6
6
4.6
4.6
4.5
8
5.0
6.7
3.9
4
3.5
2.9
2.7 2.5
2
Annualized Percentage Change
1.7
2.7
2.5
2.2
6
2.6
1.6
0.8
3.9
4
0.1
0
5.7
5.3
5.0
1.8
5.0
4.0
3.8
2.5
-2
-4
2
-1.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
GDP Growth
4.0
12
10
3.0
8
Q4
2.5
2.5
4
1.5
2
1.0
0
2011
1.3
2011
1.5
2012
2.4
1.9
2013
2014
2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
6
2.0
2010
2010
2.5
4.2
Industrial Production
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
3.5
0.5
1.5
-2.1
3.9
-2
Dec
4.8
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Contribution to Change in GDP (1)
Investment and Inventories
Personal Consumption Expenditures
5
Percentage points
5
4
2.5
2.5
1.4
1.2
1
0.6
2
1.8
1.2 1.4
1.3 1.3
0.9
0.9
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-3
Percentage points
5
4
4
3
3
2
0
0.6
0.3
0.2
-0.5
-0.8
-1.1
2010
2011
2012
-1.1
2013
2014
2015
Percentage points
0.0
-0.2 -0.1 -0.0
-0.3
-1
-1.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.0 0.0
-0.1
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
-0.9
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.6
-0.8
-0.4
-0.7
-1.2
-1.7
-1.8
2010
0.6
0
-0.1
-0.5
-0.8
-0.9
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
-0.2
-3
1.1
0.8
0.3
-2
1.2 1.2
1.1 1.0
1.0 0.9
2
1.1
1
-1
2.1
1.9
1.8
Government Consumption and Investment
Net Exports of Goods and Services
5
2.5
1
0.8
0
2010
2.9
2.9
2.2
1.9
1.8
1.5
3
2.9
2.8
2.2
-3
4.2
4
3
2
Percentage points
-1.6
-2
2015
-3
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: All of the above are seasonally adjusted data at annual rates in real dollars.
Source: Haver Analytics
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Contribution to Change in GDP (2)
Fixed Investment
4
Inventories
Percentage points
4
3
Percentage points
3
2.8
2.3
2
1.8
1.1
1
0
1.1
1.5
1.4 1.2
1.0
0.6 0.5
0.7
1.0 1.0
2
0.1
-0.2
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0.6
0.1
0
-2
-1.0
-1.2
-1.8
-2.1
2010
-0.0
-0.3
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Exports
Percentage points
-0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6
-1
-0.2
-1.6
-4
Imports
4
0.3
0
-0.1
2010
0.8
0.7
0.3
-1
-4
1.4
1.0
0.4
0.0
-0.0
1.5
1.1
1
0.4
1.9
1.7
1.2
-0.1 -0.2
-0.3
-0.8
-0.7
1.4 1.5
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.8 0.7
0.6
0.6 0.6
0.2
0
-0.4
0.6
0.3 0.2
0.4
-0.1
-1
-1.4
-1.6
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.0
Percentage points
-1.3
-1.4
-2
-1.8
-2.2
-3
-4
-3
-2.9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: All of the above are seasonally adjusted data at annual rates in real dollars.
Source: Haver Analytics
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Growth Indicators
130
Leading Indicators Composite Index
Institute for Supply Management
2004=100
PMI and NMI Composite Indexes
Dec
121.1
120
60
56
110
54
105
52
100
50
95
48
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
46
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level, Chained 2005 Dollars
8
2011
2012
2013
2014
4
Dec
3.7
1
-4
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Dec
2.8
2
0
2010
2015
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
3
4
-8
2010
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Real Personal Disposable Income
12
Non-Manu. (Jan: 56.7)
58
115
90
Manu. (Jan: 53.5)
62
125
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver; Leading Indicators Composite Index Source: The Conference Board
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
ISM Diffusion Index
62
General Conditions for Manufacturing
Current Production/Activity
Diffusion Index
Diffusion Index
60
70
58
66
56
62
Jan
53.5
54
52
Non-manu. (Jan: 61.5)
58
54
50
50
48
46
Manu. (Jan: 56.5)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
46
2010
2011
New Orders
Employment
Diffusion Index
Diffusion Index
Manu. (Jan: 52.9)
70
Non-manu. (Jan: 59.5)
2012
2013
Manu. (Jan: 54.1)
68
2014
2015
Non-manu. (Jan: 51.6)
64
66
60
62
56
58
52
54
48
50
46
44
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
40
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Manufacturers’ Shipments
280
Durable Goods
Nondefense Capital Goods
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
95
Total (Dec: 79.2)
Excl. Aircraft (Dec: 70.0)
260
Dec
247.4
240
85
75
220
200
65
180
55
160
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
45
Motor Vehicles and Parts
60
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Computer and Electronic Products
Billions of dollars
32
Billions of dollars
55
Dec
49.4
50
45
30
Dec
28.7
28
40
26
35
30
24
25
20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
22
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Seasonally adjusted
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Price and Cost Indicators
Consumer Prices
Personal Consumption Expenditure
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Overall CPI (Dec: 0.8)
5
Core CPI (Dec: 1.6)
Overall PCE (Dec: 0.7)
3.5
Core PCE (Dec: 1.3)
3.0
4
2.5
3
2.0
2
1.5
1
0
8
1.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Compensation per Hour and Unit Labor Cost
Producer Prices, Except Food and Energy
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Compensation (Q4: 1.9)
Unit Labor Cost (Q4: 1.9)
10
PPI, Fin. Goods (Dec: 1.8)
2015
PPI, Int. Goods (Dec: 0.3)
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-4
-2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Unit Labor Cost and Compensation are from the Nonfarm Business Sector.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Consumer Price Index
Total (100%)
5
Total excluding Food and Energy (77%)
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Dec
0.8
1
0
-1
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-2
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Dec
2.4
0
Dec
-0.8
-1
-2
2010
Services excluding Energy (54%)
Commodities excluding Food and Energy (23%)
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
0
Dec
1.6
1
0
-2
Percent Change over Year-Ago Level
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-1
-2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Numbers in parentheses represent share of Total CPI.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Producer Price Index
Finished Goods
Intermediate Goods
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Percent Change over Year-Ago Level
Total (Dec: -0.5)
16
Core (Dec: 1.8)
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
16
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total (Dec: -2.2)
16
2015
-4
2010
2011
Core (Dec: 0.3)
2012
2013
Finished Capital Goods
Finished Consumer Goods
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Total (Dec: -1.0)
16
2014
2015
Core (Dec: 2.3)
12
12
8
8
4
Dec
1.1
0
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4
0
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: For all of the above, core excludes food and energy.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
U.S. Import Prices for Manufactured Goods by Region
16
World Economies
Canada and Latin America
Percent change over year-ago level
Percent change over year-ago level
Industrialized (Dec: -1.1)
Developing (Dec: -1.8)
16
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
16
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-8
Canada (Dec: -2.3)
2010
2011
Latin America (Dec: -2.3)
2012
2013
European Union 15
Japan and China*
Percent change over year-ago level
Percent change over year-ago level
Japan (Dec: -1.4)
16
12
2014
2015
China* (Dec: -0.1)
12
8
8
4
4
Dec
0.4
0
-4
-8
0
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-8
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: China import price data is available from December 2003 going forward and includes nonmanufactured goods, as well.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
U.S. Import Prices by End-Use
Industrial Supplies, excl. Petroleum
Capital Goods
Percent change over year-ago level
6
Excl. computers (Dec: -0.2)
Computers (Dec: -1.3)
20
Percent change over year-ago level
15
4
2
10
0
5
-2
Dec
-0.7
0
-4
-5
-6
-8
5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-10
2010
2011
2012
Automotive Vehicles, Parts and Engines
Consumer Goods
Percent change over year-ago level
Percent change over year-ago level
4
6
3
4
2013
Durable (Dec: -1.2)
2014
2015
Non-durable (Dec: 2.1)
2
2
1
0
Dec
-0.8
-1
-2
-3
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
-2
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Computers include peripherals and semiconductors.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Employment
Unemployment, Whole Economy
Unemployment Rate
11
Percent
40
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
30
10
20
9
10
8
0
7
-10
6
5
Dec
5.6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-20
-30
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Hours Worked: Private Non-Farm Payrolls
Non-Farm Payroll Employment
6
Dec
-16.3
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
8
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
6
4
Dec
2.1
2
Dec
3.6
4
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-6
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Corporate Profits
13.5
Corporate Profits
Corporate Profits: Payments Abroad
Percent of Nominal GDP
Percent of Nominal GDP
1.7
13.0
1.6
12.5
Q3
12.3
12.0
Q3
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
11.5
1.2
11.0
10.5
1.1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.0
Percent of Nominal GDP
4.4
10.5
2012
2013
2014
2015
Percent of Nominal GDP
4.3
Q3
10.0
10.0
4.2
9.5
4.1
9.0
4.0
8.5
3.9
8.0
3.8
7.5
2011
Corporate Profits: Receipts from Abroad
Corporate Profits: Domestic Industries
11.0
2010
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3.7
Q3
3.9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Corporate profits include inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Total profits equal domestic industries plus receipts from abroad minus payments abroad.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Trade Indicators
Current Account Balance
Goods and Services
SA, Bil.$
-300
Imports (Dec: 241.4)
285
Exports (Dec: 194.9)
265
-330
-360
225
205
185
165
145
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-450
-480
-510
-540
-570
-600
Trade Balance
-30
-349
-390
-420
245
125
SAAR, Bil.$
-432
-449
-436
-458
-474
-474
-482
-449
-476
-496
2010
2011
2012
3
2
-38
1
1.1
2015
1.1
0.8
-0.2
Dec
-46.6
-46
-50
2013
2014
2015
-0.2 -0.1
-0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-1
-2
2012
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.0
0
2011
2014
SAAR, percent
0.3
-42
2010
2013
Net Export Contribution to Real GDP
SA, Bil.$
-34
-54
-394
-401
-408
-405
-423-422-425
-408
-3
-0.8
-0.9
-1.0
-1.7
-1.8
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver, Bureau of Economic Analysis/U.S. Census.
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Financial Flows In and Out of United States (1)
Total
Foreign Direct Investment
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q3: -367)
1200
Net Inflow (Q3: 358)
900
Net Outflow (Q3: -102)
200
Net Inflow (Q3: 67)
100
600
300
0
0
-100
-300
-200
-600
-900
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-300
2011
Portfolio
Banking and Other
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q3: -153)
600
Net Inflow (Q3: 251)
400
200
200
0
0
-200
-200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-400
2012
2013
Net Outflow (Q3: -111)
600
400
-400
2010
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
Net Inflow (Q3: 40)
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: U.S. official outflows are in Other. Excludes financial derivatives. Not Seasonally Adjusted.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Financial Flows In and Out of United States (2)
Portfolio: Equity Securities
Banking
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q1: 83)
200
Net Inflow (Q1: 74)
150
Net Outflow (Q1: 17)
600
Net Inflow (Q1: 96)
400
100
50
200
0
0
-50
-200
-100
-150
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2009
2010
Portfolio: Debt Securities
Other
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q1: 28)
400
Net Inflow (Q1: 127)
2011
2012
Net Outflow (Q1: -42)
150
2013
2014
2015
Net Inflow (Q1: 45)
120
90
60
30
0
-30
300
200
100
0
-100
-400
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-60
-90
-120
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: U.S. official outflows are in Other.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Financial Flows In and Out of United States By Region
525
450
375
300
225
150
75
0
-75
-150
-225
-300
Europe
Canada
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q1: 63)
Net Inflow (Q1: 110)
Net Outflow (Q1: 21)
70
Net Inflow (Q1: 8)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-10
2009
2010
Asia, Africa, and Australia
Latin America
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q1: 194)
300
Net Inflow (Q1: 16)
2011
2012
Net Outflow (Q1: 11)
200
2013
2014
2015
Net Inflow (Q1: 35)
250
100
200
150
0
100
-100
50
0
-200
-50
-100
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-300
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Data are from Financial Account and do not include flows affecting domestic reserves.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
ALL FOREIGN COUNTRIES
Net Purchase of Long-Term US Securities
Treasury Bonds and Notes
Agency Bonds
Nov: $-4.833 Billion
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
-25
-25
-50
-50
-75
-75
-100
2012
2013
2014
2015
-100
Corporate Bonds
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
-25
-25
-50
-50
-75
-75
2012
2013
2013
2014
2015
2014
2015
Nov: $5.771 Billion
100
75
-100
2012
Corporate Stocks
Nov: $24.983 Billion
100
Nov: $33.290 Billion
100
2014
2015
-100
2012
2013
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
NET PURCHASE OF LONG-TERM US SECURITIES
By Region
Asia
Europe
Nov: $20.918 Billion
90
60
60
30
30
0
0
-30
-30
-60
-60
-90
-90
-120
2012
2013
2014
2015
-120
Latin America
60
30
30
0
0
-30
-30
-60
-60
-90
-90
2012
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
Nov: $-9.175 Billion
90
60
-120
2012
Caribbean
Nov: $1.441 Billion
90
Nov: $46.653 Billion
90
2014
2015
-120
2012
2013
NOTE: Categories not covered include: ’Other Countries’, Int’l and Reg. Organizations, and Africa.
Source: US Treasury Department
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Net Borrowing by Nonfinancial Corporations
Total
1000
Loans and Mortgages
Billions of Dollars, SAAR
400
Billions of Dollars, SAAR
800
585
600
400
362
295300 284
184
200
317
561
61 70
404
382378
353
324
38
33
-12
-141
-211
-400
-330
-435-446
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-600
Billions of Dollars, SAAR
600
120
90
72
70
63
30
26
30 29
29
20
300
19
0
100
-35
359
352
2014
2015
373
324
287
267
184
178
225
200
205
215217
175
151
146
-20
-35
-60
2013
446
401
200
-7.9
-30
2012
Billions of Dollars, SAAR
400
55
50
44
2011
500
92
50
2010
Bonds
Commercial Paper
53
-59
0
-90
-120
63
-8.9
168
86
163
-22
-600
60
105
11
0
302
202
155
142
-117
-400
150
222
200
-200
0
-200
625
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Equity issues are not included.
Source: Board of Governors, Haver
February 5, 2015
UNITED STATES
Gross Saving and Investment as a Percent of Nominal GDP
26
Private Saving (Q3: 20.0)
Private Domestic Investment (Q4: 16.7)
22
Saving (Q3: 18.2)
Domestic Investment (Q4: 20.1)
24
20
22
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
10
9
2010
2011
2012
Government Saving (Q3: -1.8)
2013
2014
2015
Government Investment (Q4: 3.4)
6
12
1
2010
2011
2012
Saving Gap (Q3: -1.7)
2013
2014
2015
Net Foreign Investment (Q3: -2.5)
0
3
-1
0
-2
-3
-6
-3
-9
-4
-12
-15
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: The saving gap (S-I) and Net Foreign Investment differ by a statistical discrepancy. NFI plus some small adjustment factors equals the Current Account.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Summary Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross Domestic Product
8
Four-quarter percentage change
112
Index, 2000=100
108
6
104
4
100
2
96
92
0
Q3
-1.2
-2
-4
88
84
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
80
Unemployment Rate
6.0
Dec
98.9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Price Index
Percent
5
12-Month Percentage Change
4
5.5
3
5.0
Dec
2.4
2
4.5
1
4.0
0
Dec
3.4
3.5
3.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-1
-2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Output Indicators
GDP Growth
16
12
8
4
Industrial Production
Annualized Percentage Change
50
40
11
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.8
20
4.6
4.5
12
10
0.5
-2.3
-4
-2.4
-1.7 -2.0
-0.9
-1.5
4.0 5.3
0
-1.9
-6.7
-7.1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-30
GDP Growth
40
6
30
4
20
2
10
0
0
Q3
-1.2
-2
2011
-14 -15
2010
2011
-7.0
-8.3
-13
2012
-7.5
-14
2013
2014
2015
Industrial Production
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
2010
2.1
-1.7
-20
2015
6.5 7.0 7.6
3.9 3.2
-10
-8
-4
18
3.0
0
8
32
30
1.6
-12
Annualized Percentage Change
2012
2013
2014
2015
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Dec
-1.1
-10
-20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Contribution to Change in GDP (1)
Private Consumption Expenditures
12
Investment and Inventories
Percentage points
12
8
Percentage points
8
5.2
4
3.6
3.2
2.4
1.6
2.0
0.0
-4
-4.0
0.8
1.6 1.2
-1.2
-1.6
-3.2
-12
-12
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-16
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Government Consumption Expenditures
Net Exports of Goods and Services
Percentage points
12
8
Percentage points
8
4.0
3.6
2.0
4
1.6
0.0 0.4
0.4
-0.4
-1.2
-1.6 -2.0
1.2
0.4
0.4
-0.4
-2.8
-4
-1.6
0
-0.8
-2.4
-8
-12
-12
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8
-0.4
0.4 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
-0.4
0.4 0.4
-0.4
-4
-4.4
-8
-16
-0.8
-2.0
0.4 0.4
-8
-16
0
2.4
2.0 2.0
0.4
-1.2
-12
4
2.8
2.0
0
-8
12
3.2
2.4
0.8
-0.8
-1.2
-4
0.8
0.4
0.0
0
4
3.2
1.2 1.2 1.6
2014
2015
-16
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Contributions to GDP growth may include errors due to rounding.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Contribution to Change in GDP (2)
Inventories
Fixed Investment
8
Percentage points
8
6
6
4
4
Percentage points
4.8
2.0
2
0
3.2
3.2
1.2
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.0
2.4
1.6
2
1.2
2.0
0.4
-0.4
-1.2
-2
-0.8
-0.4
1.6
0.8
0.0
0.0
0
-0.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
-0.8
-2
-1.6
-0.4
-0.8
-0.8
-1.2
-1.2
-2.0
-2.4
-4
-6
-4
-4.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-6
Imports
8
-2.4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Exports
Percentage points
8
6
Percentage points
6
5.6
4.4
4
4
4.0
3.6
2.8
2
-1.2
-0.4
2.4
1.6
-1.2 -1.2 -1.2
-2.0
-0.4
-0.8
-1.6
0.0
-0.4
-1.2
-0.4
-2
-2.0
-2.4
-2.8
-4
-0.4
-2.4
-0.4
-2.0
-4
-4.8
-4.8
-6
1.6
0.0
0
-0.8
1.6
0.8
0.4
0.0
0
-2
2
1.2
-0.8
2015
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Contributions to GDP growth may include errors due to rounding.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Growth Indicators
Tankan Survey
20
Manufacturing Producers’ Shipments
Headline - Large Manufacturers
30
15
Q4
12.0
10
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level (SA)
20
5
10
0
0
Dec
-1.0
-5
-10
-10
-15
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-20
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Retail Sales
Core Machinery Orders
25
2010
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level (SA)
15
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level (SA)
20
10
15
10
5
5
-5
Nov
-9.2
-10
-15
Dec
0.3
0
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-5
-10
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Tankan Survey Results
Business Conditions: Large, Manufacturing
Business Conditions: Large, Non-Manufacturing
Net Percentage ’Favorable’ responses
Net Percentage ’Favorable’ responses
Actual (Q4: 12.0)
20
Forecast (Q1: 9.0)
15
Actual (Q4: 16.0)
30
Forecast (Q1: 15.0)
20
10
5
10
0
0
-5
-10
-10
-15
-20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-20
Corporate Finance: Financial Position, Large
22
Diffusion Index of ’Easy’ minus ’Tight’
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Diffusion index of ’Accomodative’ minus ’Severe’
Q4
25.0
25
Q4
19.0
18
2011
Lending Attitude: Large Financial Enterprises
30
20
2010
20
16
15
14
10
12
5
10
8
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Consumer Price Index
5
Total
Core
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
4
4
Dec
2.4
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-2
Goods
8
ex. Food and Energy (Dec: 2.1)
3
3
-2
ex. Fresh Foods (Dec: 2.5)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Services
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
2.5
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
2.0
6
Dec
1.8
1.5
4
Dec
3.1
2
1.0
0.5
0.0
0
-0.5
-2
-4
-1.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-1.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Producer Price Index
Intermediate Goods
Total
6
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
6
4
4
Dec
1.9
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-4
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
6
4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
4
2
Dec
1.0
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
Dec
-0.6
Consumer Goods
Capital Goods
6
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-4
Dec
-1.6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Employment and Wages
Unemployment, Job Seekers
Unemployment Rate
6.0
Percent
20
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
15
5.5
10
5.0
5
4.5
0
-5
4.0
Dec
-7.0
-10
Dec
3.4
3.5
3.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-15
-20
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Average Hourly Wage (NSA)
Total Labor Force
1.5
2010
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level (NSA)
30
1.0
Dollars
28
0.5
Dec
0.3
0.0
-0.5
26
24
-1.0
22
-1.5
-2.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20
Sep
21.2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Trade Indicators
375
300
225
150
75
0
-75
-150
-225
-300
Trade and Current Account Balances
Merchandise Imports
In Billions of Dollars, SAAR
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
TB (Dec: -71.6)
CAB (Nov: 94.4)
Volumes (Dec: -0.1)
50
Values (Dec: 1.9)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-20
2010
2011
2012
2013
Merchandise Trade
Merchandise Exports
In Billions of Dollars, SA
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Imports (Dec: 61.1)
95
Exports (Dec: 55.1)
Volumes (Dec: 6.0)
80
2014
2015
Values (Dec: 12.8)
60
85
40
75
20
65
0
55
45
-20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-40
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Financial Flows In and Out of Japan (1)
Total
Foreign Direct Investment
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q3: -45)
200
Net Inflow (Q3: 19)
150
10
100
0
50
-10
0
-20
-50
-30
-100
-40
-150
-50
-200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Net Outflow (Q3: -21)
20
-60
2010
2011
2012
Portfolio
Banking and Other
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q3: -80)
200
Net Inflow (Q3: 51)
150
Net Inflow (Q3: 2)
2013
Net Outflow (Q3: 58)
300
2014
2015
Net Inflow (Q3: -34)
200
100
100
50
0
0
-50
-100
-100
-200
-150
-200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-300
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Data are from Financial Account and do not include flows affecting domestic reserves.
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Financial Flows In and Out of Japan (2)
Portfolio: Equity Securities
Banking
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Sep: -13)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
2010
2011
2012
Net Inflow (Sep: 7)
2013
2014
2015
Net Outflow (Sep: -20)
150
120
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
-90
-120
2010
2011
Portfolio: Debt Securities
Other
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Sep: -18)
90
Net Inflow (Sep: -12)
150
30
100
2013
Net Outflow (Sep: 33)
200
60
2012
Net Inflow (Sep: -8)
2014
2015
Net Inflow (Sep: 20)
50
0
0
-30
-50
-60
-100
-90
-150
-120
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Data are from Financial Account and do not include flows affecting domestic reserves.
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Financial Indicators
Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates
Money Growth
3-Month CD Rate, 10-year Government Bond Rate
Percent change over year-ago levels
Short (Feb 4: 0.21)
1.8
Long (Feb 4: 0.37)
1.5
M2 + CD (Dec: 3.6)
80
Base (Jan: 37.4)
60
1.2
0.9
40
0.6
20
0.3
0
0.0
-0.3
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-20
Monetary Policy
0.12
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Stock Market Index
Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate
1600
0.10
Tokyo Stock Exchange Topix
Feb 4
1417.0
1400
0.08
Feb 2
0.07
0.06
1200
1000
0.04
800
0.02
0.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
600
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
JAPAN
Exchange Rates
135
Yen per Dollar
160
Yen per Euro
150
125
Jan 30
117.4
115
140
Jan 30
132.6
130
105
120
95
110
85
100
75
65
90
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
80
Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
140
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Real Effective Exchange Rate
Narrow Index, 2000=100
110
130
Narrow Index, 2000=100
100
120
90
110
80
100
90
Feb 4
82.3
80
Jan
63.7
60
70
60
70
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
50
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Summary Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross Domestic Product
4
Four-quarter percentage change
106
3
104
2
102
Q3
0.8
1
98
-1
96
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
94
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Price Index
Harmonized Unemployment Rate
13.0
Nov
101.2
100
0
-2
Index, 2000=100
Percent
5
12.5
12-Month Percentage Change
4
12.0
3
Dec
11.4
11.5
2
11.0
1
10.5
0
10.0
-1
9.5
9.0
Jan
-0.6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Output Indicators
GDP Growth
5
4
Industrial Production
Annualized Quarterly Percentage Change
6
4
3.6
Annualized Quarterly Percentage Change
3.7
2.6
3
2
1.5
0.7
2
1.3
0
0.7
-1.1
-0.4
2012
-1.5
2014
2015
-10
GDP Growth
4
16
12
2
8
Q3
0.8
1
0
-1
-4
2012
-7.7
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
Monthly Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
4
0
2011
-5.3
Industrial Production
Quarterly Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
3
-2
-1.5
-2.6 -2.7
-8
2013
0.1
-0.8
-6
-1.1
-1.8
2011
-2
0.6
-4
-0.4
-2
-3
1.3
0.3
0.1 0.0
-1
1.0
0.9
0.1
0
1
2.3
1.1
2015
-8
Nov
-0.3
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Contribution to Annualized GDP Growth Rate
Private Consumption Expenditures
6
Investment and Inventories
Percentage points
6
4
Percentage points
4
3.2
2
2
0.8
0.4
-2
-4
-1.2
-0.4
-1.2
2011
-0.4
-0.4
-1.2
2012
2013
2014
2015
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.8 -0.8
-1.6
-2.0
-4
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Government Consumption Expenditures
Percentage points
6
4
Percentage points
4
2
1.6 1.6
2.0
2.0
2
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.4
0.4 0.4
0
0.0
2011
2012
0.4
0.0
0.4 0.4
-0.4
-1.6
-2
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0
-0.4
-4
-0.4
-1.2
-1.6
-2
Net Exports of Goods and Services
6
0.0
0
-0.4
-1.2
0.8
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.0
0
1.6
1.2
2013
-2
2014
2015
-4
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Contributions to growth may include errors due to rounding.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
Euro Area
Contribution to Change in GDP (2)
Inventories
Fixed Investment
6
Percentage points
6
4
2
Percentage points
4
2
1.6
2.0
1.2
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0
0.0
0
-0.4 -0.4 -0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4 -0.4
-0.8
-0.8 -0.8 -0.8
-2
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-4
Imports
6
-0.4 -0.4
-0.4
-0.8
-1.2
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Exports
Percentage points
6
4
Percentage points
4
3.2
2.0
2
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.4 2.4
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.2 1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.0
0
0.8
0.4
-0.4 -0.4
-0.8
-2
-2.0
-2.8
-2.0
-2.8
2011
2.8
2
0.8
0.4
-4
0.4
-1.6
-2
-2.0
-4
0.0
0.0
0.4
2012
2013
-1.6
-2
-2.4
2014
2015
-4
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Contributions to growth may include errors due to rounding.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Growth Indicators
Business Climate Index
Consumer Confidence
0
Percentage Balance
2.0
Standard Deviation Points
1.5
-5
Jan
-8.5
-10
1.0
0.5
-15
Jan
0.2
0.0
-20
-0.5
-25
-1.0
-30
-35
115
-1.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-2.0
2011
2012
Economic Sentiment Index
Business Confidence
Long-Term Average = 100
Percentage Balance
2013
Industry (Jan: -5.0)
30
110
2014
2015
Services (Jan: 4.8)
20
105
Jan
101.2
100
10
95
0
90
-10
85
-20
80
2010
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-30
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Industrial Confidence Indicators
Total
15
Order Books
Percentage Balance
20
10
10
5
0
0
-10
Jan
-5.0
-5
-30
-15
-40
-20
-50
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-60
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Production Expectations
Stocks of Finished Products
16
Jan
-14.8
-20
-10
-25
Percentage Balance
Percentage Balance
30
12
Percentage Balance
20
8
Jan
6.9
10
Jan
6.8
4
0
0
-10
-4
-8
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Retail Sales and Turnover
Retail Trade excl. Autos
101
Car Registrations
Volume, 2010=100
950
Thousands of Units
900
100
Dec
99.2
99
850
800
Dec
775.6
98
750
97
700
96
95
115
650
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
600
2010
2011
2012
Manufacturing Turnover: Domestic
Manufacturing Turnover: Foreign
2005=100
2010=100
135
Intra-Euro Area (Oct: 110.8)
2013
2014
2015
Extra-Euro Area (Oct: 125.2)
110
125
105
Oct
102.1
100
105
95
90
115
95
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
85
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Above charts are seasonally adjusted
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Price and Cost Indicators
Consumer Prices
Producer Prices
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Percent Change over Year-Ago Level
Overall CPI (Jan: -0.6)
5
Core CPI (Jan: 0.6)
10
6
3
4
2
2
1
0
0
-2
-1
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-6
Unit Labor Cost (Q3: 1.1)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Import Prices - Manufactured Products
Unit Labor Costs and Compensation
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
4
PPI (Cons.Goods) (Dec: -0.4)
8
4
-2
PPI (Dec: -2.3)
Compensation (Q3: 1.3)
15
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
10
3
2
5
1
Oct
3.2
0
0
-5
-1
-2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-10
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Core CPI excludes Energy, Food, Alcohol and Tobacco. Unit Labor Costs and Compensation are Per Employee.
Source: Haver, National Sources
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
4
Total HICP
Total excluding Energy and Unprocessed Food
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
Jan
0.5
0
-1
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Jan
-0.6
2015
-1
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
Dec
-0.0
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Services
Goods excluding Energy, Food, Alcohol and Tobacco
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
0
2010
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Dec
1.2
0
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Producer Price Index
Intermediate Goods
Total
10
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Dec
-2.3
-2
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Goods
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
Dec
0.8
0
-2
-4
Dec
-0.9
-2
Capital Goods
10
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
2
Dec
-0.4
0
-2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Employment and Wages
Harmonized Unemployment Rate
13.0
Harmonized Unemployment, Whole Economy
Percent
25
12.5
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
20
12.0
15
Dec
11.4
11.5
10
11.0
5
10.5
0
10.0
9.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-10
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Index of Total Labor Cost
Employment in the Whole Economy
1.5
Dec
-3.7
-5
9.5
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
4.0
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
3.5
1.0
Q3
0.6
0.5
3.0
2.5
0.0
2.0
-0.5
1.5
-1.0
1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Q3
1.3
0.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver, National Sources
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Trade Indicators
Trade and Current Account Balances
Total Exports
In Billions of Dollars, SAAR
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
TB (Nov: 298.7)
600
CAB (Nov: 270.9)
Volumes (Oct: 2.5)
40
Values (Nov: -3.7)
500
30
400
300
20
200
10
100
0
0
-100
-200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-10
2011
2012
2013
Total Imports and Exports
Total Imports
In Billions of Dollars, SA
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Exports (Nov: 206.2)
240
Imports (Nov: 181.3)
30
200
20
180
10
160
0
140
-10
120
-20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Volumes (Oct: 1.0)
40
220
100
2010
-30
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
Values (Nov: -6.4)
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
Gross Operating Surplus and Mixed Income
As a percent of nominal GDP
0.42
Euro Area
0.42
Germany
0.41
0.41
0.40
Q2
0.40
0.40
Q2
0.39
0.39
0.39
0.37
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
France
0.38
0.49
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Italy
0.36
0.48
0.35
0.33
0.47
Q2
0.34
0.34
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q2
0.47
2015
0.46
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
November 24, 2014
EURO AREA
Financial Flows In and Out of Euro Area (1)
Total
Foreign Direct Investment
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q3: -222)
600
Net Inflow (Q3: 152)
Net Outflow (Q3: -74)
400
Net Inflow (Q3: 38)
300
400
200
200
100
0
0
-100
-200
-200
-400
-600
375
300
225
150
75
0
-75
-150
-225
-300
-375
-300
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-400
2010
2011
2012
Portfolio
Banking and Other
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q3: -150)
Net Inflow (Q3: 51)
2013
Net Outflow (Q3: 2)
600
2014
2015
Net Inflow (Q3: 64)
400
200
0
-200
-400
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-600
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Data are from Financial Account and do not include flows affecting domestic reserves.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Financial Flows In and Out of Euro Area (2)
Portfolio: Equity Securities
Banking (MFIs excluding Eurosystem)
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q3: -36)
300
Net Inflow (Q3: 87)
200
100
100
0
0
-100
-100
-200
-200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-300
2010
2011
Portfolio: Debt Securities
Other
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
Net Outflow (Q3: -114)
400
Net Inflow (Q3: -36)
150
200
100
2012
Net Inflow (Q3: 63)
2013
Net Outflow (Q3: 17)
200
300
2014
2015
Net Inflow (Q3: 1)
50
100
0
0
-50
-100
-100
-200
-150
-300
Net Outflow (Q3: -15)
200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Data are from Financial Account and do not include flows affecting domestic reserves.
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Financial Indicators
5
3-month Euro Market Rate, 10-year German Bond Yield
Money and Credit Growth
Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates
Percent Change Over Year-Ago Level
Long (Feb 4: 0.34)
Short (Feb 4: 0.06)
M3 (Dec: 3.4)
6
4
Loans (Dec: -0.5)
4
3
2
2
0
1
-2
0
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-4
Monetary Policy
2.1
2011
2012
2013
2014
400
Euro-Stoxx, Overall
Feb 4
372.1
370
340
310
280
250
220
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.3
Jan
0.05
0.0
2010
2011
2015
Stock Market Index
ECB Refinancing Rate
1.8
-0.3
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
190
160
130
100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Loans are to euro area residents excluding MFIs and general government.
Source: National Sources, Haver
February 5, 2015
EURO AREA
Exchange Rates
Euro-Dollar Exchange Rates
Dollars per Euro (Feb 5: 1.14)
Euros per Dollar (Feb 5: 0.88)
160
Yen per Euro
150
1.5
140
1.3
130
Feb 5
133.6
120
1.1
110
0.9
100
0.7
0.5
90
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
80
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Real Effective Exchange Rate
Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
150
2010
Narrow Index, 2000=100
128
Narrow Index, 2000=100
124
140
120
130
116
120
112
Feb 4
114.4
110
100
108
Jan
105.9
104
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
FRANCE
Summary Indicators
Gross Domestic Product
4
Industrial Production
Four-quarter percentage change
106
Index, 2000=100
104
3
102
2
100
1
Q3
0.4
0
-1
98
Nov
97.1
96
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
94
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Price Index
Harmonized Unemployment Rate
Percent
3.5
Dec
10.3
10.3
10.0
12-Month Percentage Change
3.0
2.5
2.0
9.7
1.5
1.0
9.4
0.5
9.1
8.8
Dec
0.1
0.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-0.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
GERMANY
Summary Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross Domestic Product
8
Four-quarter percentage change
116
Index, 2000=100
112
6
Nov
107.8
108
4
104
100
2
Q3
1.2
0
-2
96
92
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
88
Harmonized Unemployment Rate
8.0
3.5
3.0
7.0
2.5
6.5
2.0
6.0
1.5
5.5
1.0
5.0
Dec
4.8
4.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Price Index
Percent
7.5
4.0
2010
2014
2015
12-Month Percentage Change
0.5
Dec
0.1
0.0
-0.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
ITALY
Summary Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross Domestic Product
4
Four-quarter percentage change
110
Index, 2000=100
3
105
2
1
100
0
Q3
-0.5
-1
-2
95
Nov
90.2
90
-3
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
85
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Price Index
Harmonized Unemployment Rate
16
2010
Percent
5
12-Month Percentage Change
4
14
Dec
12.9
12
3
2
10
1
8
6
Dec
-0.1
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
February 5, 2015
UK
Summary Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross Domestic Product
5
Four-quarter percentage change
104
4
102
Q2
3.2
3
100
2
98
1
96
0
94
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
92
Harmonized Unemployment Rate
9.0
Index, 2000=100
Sep
98.9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Price Index
Percent
6.5
8.5
12-Month Percentage Change
5.5
8.0
4.5
7.5
3.5
7.0
6.5
2.5
Aug
5.9
6.0
5.5
5.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1.5
2015
0.5
Sep
1.2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Haver
November 24, 2014
CANADA
Summary Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross Domestic Product
5
Four-quarter percentage change
16
Percent change over year-ago level
12
4
8
3
Q3
2.6
4
Nov
2.3
2
0
1
0
-4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-8
Unemployment Rate
9.1
5
4
8.1
3
7.6
2
7.1
1
Dec
6.7
6.6
2010
2011
2012
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Price Index
Percent
8.6
6.1
2010
2013
2014
2015
12-Month Percentage Change
Dec
1.6
0
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
MEXICO
Summary Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross Domestic Product
10
Four-quarter percentage change
112
8
Index, 1993=100
108
Nov
106.7
6
104
4
Q3
2.1
2
96
0
-2
100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
92
Urban Unemployment Rate
6.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Consumer Price Index
Percent
5.5
6.0
12-Month Percentage Change
5.0
5.5
4.5
5.0
Dec
4.1
4.0
4.5
3.5
4.0
Dec
3.8
3.5
3.0
2015
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3.0
2.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
U.S. DOLLAR AGAINST FOREIGN CURRENCIES
Monthly Average Values
135
Yen per Dollar
Euros per Dollar (Feb 2: 0.88)
Dollars per Euro (Feb 2: 1.13)
125
Feb 2
117.7
115
1.5
1.3
105
95
1.1
85
0.9
75
0.7
65
0.72
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.5
Pound per Dollar
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Canadian Dollar per Dollar
0.70
1.3
0.68
Feb 4
0.66
0.66
Feb 4
1.25
1.2
0.64
1.1
0.62
0.60
1.0
0.58
0.56
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015
EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES
Index, 2000=100
U.S. dollar (real)
U.S. dollar (nominal)
95
Major Currencies Index - 7 Currencies
100
90
Feb 4
87.4
85
Major Currencies Index - 16 Currencies
Jan
94.5
95
90
80
85
75
80
70
75
65
60
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
70
Euro area euro (nominal)
132
140
130
124
120
120
110
116
Dec 31
113.5
112
104
70
2012
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
Major Currencies Index - 26 Currencies
90
80
2011
2012
100
108
2010
2011
Japanese yen (nominal)
ECB Narrow Index - 12 Currencies
128
100
2010
60
Jan 29
82.9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Board of Governors, National Sources
February 5, 2015
INTERNATIONAL LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES
Monthly Average Values, Percent
5
United States
5
4
4
3
3
Feb 4
1.81
2
1
5
2
1
0
-1
Feb 4
0.37
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Japan
-1
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
Feb 4
0.37
0
-1
Euro Area
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Canada
Feb 4
1.28
0
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Yields on government bonds with maturities of ten years or longer.
Source: National Sources, Board of Governors
February 5, 2015
INTERNATIONAL SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES
Monthly Average Values, Percent
2.5
United States
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
Jan
0.03
0.0
-0.5
2.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Japan
-0.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
Jan
-0.06
-0.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan
0.06
0.0
2.5
0.0
Euro Area
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Canada
Jan
1.12
0.0
-0.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: 3-month Treasury Bill Rate; EU - 3-month euribor; JP - 3-month Yen rate; CA - 3-month finance paper rate.
Source: National Sources, Board of Governers.
February 5, 2015
STOCK MARKET INDICES
Monthly Average
2400
United States: SP500
400
2200
Feb 4
2042
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
1600
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
EU: Euro-Stoxx, Overall
370
340
Feb 3
348
310
280
250
220
190
160
130
100
Japan: Topix
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Canada: TSE 300
16500
Feb 4
1417
1400
15500
Feb 4
15007
14500
1200
13500
1000
12500
800
600
11500
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
10500
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOTE: Dots represent last reported daily close.
Source: National Sources
February 5, 2015