A Study on Agri-Business Opportunities Related to Gas/Oil Activities in Lindi and Mtwara Commissioned by Undertaken by Block EC. Urafiki Flats. Ubungo P.O. Box 33836 Dar es Salaam Cell; +255 786 171 000/752 171 000 December 5th, 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 3 1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Study Objectives ..................................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Limitations Faced .................................................................................................................... 6 1.4 Report Layout.......................................................................................................................... 7 2.0 LINDI MTWARA PROFILE ............................................................................................................. 8 2.1 Mtwara Regional Profile ......................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Lindi Region ........................................................................................................................... 11 2.3 Food Security in Lindi and Mtwara ....................................................................................... 14 3.0 THE GAS INDUSTRY ................................................................................................................... 15 3.1 Global Overview .................................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Gas Industry in Tanzania ....................................................................................................... 17 3.3 The Need for Inclusive Gas/Oil Industry ............................................................................... 18 4.0 INVESTMENTS IN MTWARA AND LINDI .................................................................................... 23 4.1 Projects Registered by Tanzania Investment Center ............................................................ 23 4.2 Investment in Agriculture ..................................................................................................... 24 4.3 Non-Agriculture Investments ................................................................................................ 29 4.4 The World Bank Support ....................................................................................................... 35 4.5 Promotion of Investments in Lindi and Mtwara ................................................................... 36 5.0 FOODSTUFFS DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN LINDI AND MTWARA ................................................. 39 5.1 Demand by Local Consumers ................................................................................................ 39 5.2 The Chinese Consumer Segment .......................................................................................... 41 5.3 Gas Drilling Companies ......................................................................................................... 43 5.4 Demand of Foodstuffs by Hotels and Restaurants ............................................................... 49 5.5 Specialized Fresh Vegetable Suppliers .................................................................................. 52 5.6 Grain Millers in Lindi and Mtwara ........................................................................................ 54 5.7 WABISOCO and Vegetable and Fruits Kiosk Operators ........................................................ 55 6.0 LIKELY IMPACT OF GAS INDUSTRY ON FOREST RESOURCES ..................................................... 57 6.1 Stock of Forest Resources ..................................................................................................... 57 7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................... 62 7.1 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 62 7.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................................ 65 references ............................................................................................................................................. 72 Annex i: oil and gas exploration blocks and respective companies ...................................................... 73 ANNEX II : OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION COMPANIES OPERATING IN TANZANIA ................................. 74 Annex III Projected Population, number of households by income category ...................................... 76 ANNEX IV : WEEKLY FOOD PURCHASES BY LOCAL CONSUMERS IN MTWARA ..................................... 77 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 : Mtwara Region Administrative Units and Population in 2012.............................................. 8 Table 2.2: List of cashew processors in Mtwara and Lindi ................................................................... 10 Table 2.3: Government Relief Food Supply to Mtwara in Mt ............................................................... 10 Table 2.4: Lindi Region: Administrative Units ....................................................................................... 11 Table 2.5: Lindi Population Size by District in 2012. ............................................................................. 11 i Table 2.6: Number of enterprises in SIDO online database by category .............................................. 12 Table 2.7: Agricultural Production in Lindi in 2012/13 in Mt................................................................ 13 Table 2.8 : Potential Ares for Irrigation in Lindi .................................................................................... 13 Table 3.1: Long-term gas price trend in USD per MBtu(1997 – 2014).................................................. 16 Table 3.2: Four Key Strategies that Companies can Use to Expand Economic Opportunity ............... 19 Table 4.1: Projects for Lindi and Mtwara Registered by TIC (2007 - 2014) .......................................... 23 Table 4.2: Large scale crop and livestock establishments in Lindi and Mtwara (2007) ........................ 24 Table 4.3: Summary Forecast of Mtwara Port Cargo Traffic ................................................................ 30 Table 4.4: Current and future employment status of Mtwara Port ..................................................... 30 Table 5.1: Projected number of households by income category - Mtwara and Lindi Municipals ..... 40 Table 5.2: Projected market size for foodstuffs for Mtwara Municipal in TZS million ......................... 40 Table 5.3: Projected market size for foodstuffs for Lindi Municipal in TZS million. ............................. 41 Table 5.4: Consumer basket and value in TZS for of Chinese Segment ................................................ 42 Table 5.5: Projected employment around LNG Investment ................................................................. 43 Table 5.6: Estimated demand for fresh vegetable and fruits by expatriates market ........................... 48 Table 5.7: Weekly supplies of foodstuffs to VETA Hotel....................................................................... 50 Table 5.8: Sample price difference between Mtwara and Dar es Salaam ............................................ 51 Table 5.9: Major sources of food supply for Edino Investment ............................................................ 52 Table 5.10: Supplies handled by Epam per week (in Kgs)..................................................................... 52 Table 5.12: Retail Price of a Kilogram of maize flour in Mtwara Municipal in 2013 ............................ 54 Table 5.11: Foodstuffs supplied by Travis ............................................................................................. 53 Table 5.13: Quantity of Paddy Processed per week by millers in Lindi (In Metric Tonnes) ................. 55 Table 5.14: Retail price trend for rice and maize in Lindi Municipal in 2013 ....................................... 55 Table 6.1: TFS Royalty Rates on Timber ................................................................................................ 57 Table 6.2: Revenue sources for Masasi Rural District. .......................................................................... 59 Table 6.3: Estimated demand for hardwood in Lindi and Mtwara Municipals .................................... 60 Table 7.1 : Gross Profitability Estimate for Mari culture ...................................................................... 67 Table 7.2: Profitability of a 4Mt/day Starch Plant ................................................................................ 70 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 4.1: Satellte Mapof Mahurunga Valley (Shaded) ....................................................................... 25 Figure 4.3: Vegetable production calendar at Kitere: The Case of Tomatoes ...................................... 27 Figure 4.2 : Kitere Lake: Photo and Satellite Map................................................................................. 27 Figure 4.4: Port expansion phases: short, medium and long term plans ............................................. 30 Figure 4.5: Planned Mtwara City Clusters ............................................................................................. 32 Figure 5.1: Chinese Consumer Basket by Value .................................................................................... 41 Figure 5.2: Employment pattern in gas industry .................................................................................. 44 Figure 5.3: Trend in GDP per capita for Lindi, Mtwara and National ................................................... 44 Figure 5.4: Projected employment effect in the short, medium and long-term periods ..................... 45 Figure 5.5: Profitability of vegetable business at Mtwara, Lindi and Masasi in September 2014........ 56 ii ABBREVIATIONS AMAGRO Association of Mango Growers ARI Agriculture Research Institute BDG Business Development Gateway Bln Billion BRELA Business Registrations and Licensing Agency BTu British Thermo Unit CSR Corporate social responsibilities DADPs District Agriculture Development Plans DC District Commissioner DESEMP District Economic and Social Empowerment Programme DFM District Forest Manager EAC East African Community EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GCLA Government Chemist Laboratory Agency HR Human Resources ICT Information and Communication Technology IFC International Finance Corporation IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IOCS International Oil Companies LCP Local Content Policy LIMAS Lindi and Mtwara Agribusiness Support LNG Liquefied Natural Gas MACEMP Marine & Coastal Environmental Management Project Mln Milllion Mt Metric tonne MUVI Muunganisho Ujasiriamali Vijijini NBS National Bureau of Statistics NDC National Development Corporation NFRA National Food Reserve Agency RAS Regional Administrative Secretary SADC Southern African Development Community 1 SAUT St. Augustine’s University of Tanzania SIDO Small Industries Development Organization TAKNET Tanzania (Development) Knowledge Network TANESCO Tanzania Electricity Supply Company TC Town Council TCCIA Tanzania Chamber of Commerce, Industry & Agriculture TCF Trillion cubic feet TCP Trade and Competitiveness Practices TCIMRL Tanzania China International Mineral Resources Limited TFS Tanzania Forest Services company TIC Tanzania Investment Centre TIRDO Tanzania Industrial Research and Development Organization TPA Tanzania Ports Authority TPDC Tanzania Petroleum Development Company TSCP Tanzania Sustainable Cities Programme UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization VECO Vredeseilanden Country Office WABISOCO Chama Cha Wafanyabiashara Soko Kuu Mtwara WB World Bank 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Lindi and Mtwara Agri-business Support (LIMAS) is a 5-Year Programme (2011 – 2015) that supports economic development in Lindi and Mtwara Regions in line with the National Strategy for Economic Growth and Reduction of Poverty (NSGRP) or popularly known as MKUKUTA. It is funded through the support of the Government of Finland and the Government of Tanzania. One of the strategic support that LIMAS offers is to link farmers to profitable and sustainable markets and value addition. There has emerged opportunities in the Regions involving exploration and investment in natural gas, in this light LIMAS has commissioned a study to assess the market opportunities that have been triggered by activities related to gas exploration, extraction, processing, transportation and utilization. This assessment involved collection of information from as many sources as accessible including literature review, internet search especially on evolving industry trends, consultations had been made with national, regional and district officials, traders, market operators, regulatory bodies and companies that provide catering services, hotels, restaurants, etc. The analyses looked at both qualitative and quantitative data. It has attempted to project the market for food in monetary terms. The recommendations have been arrived at based on evidences in the field and elsewhere. Tanzania’s economy has the potential to become a natural gas driven economy from 2020 onwards, at the time of the study already some 46 trillion cubic feet had been confirmed by leading International Oil Companies. Still many potential oil/gas blocks have not been conceded for exploration. The national strategy for gas utilization require that first the gas is used to produce electricity to meet power demand for the country, at the same time there will be investments in renewable energy sources including hydro and wind to relieve the gas so as to develop petrochemical industries. Finally surplus gas will be compressed into liquid natural gas for export. For Lindi and Mtwara, the gas industry activities have stimulated economic activities particularly in Mtwara. The impact is noticeable, they include the construction of a USD 500mln cement plant by Dangote, the construction of a gas pipeline to Dar es Salaam, construction of gas processing plants at Madimba and Msimbati, modernization of Mtwara port, the rekindled interest in Mtwara Corridor, influx of all important banks, etc. These are signs of a growing economy, however, there is a yawning gap between the gas economy and local economy, it is important therefore to synchronize and integrate the local economy into the modern gas economy. LIMAS and other programmes are working to integrate the local economy into the gas economy by supporting enterprises that desires to tap into the market that has resulted from the gas activities. The market opportunity offered by the gas economy to the local economy includes:• Local consumer market segment that is estimated to be worth around TZS 20 Bln at present and is to increase to about TZS 24bln in 2025 as population and income rises. • The Chinese community who currently spend about TZS 1.8 bln • Workers in drilling rigs whose current market size estimated at TZS 2.5bln per annum • During the construction of the LNG plant demand form food may reach TZS 36.5 bln per annum. The construction may take four years, if everything goes well the LNG plant should be launched around 2022 – 23. 3 The middle and high income local consumers, the workers in rigs and the Chinese spend more money on food from livestock, poultry, cattle and fish and less on staples and vegetables. Apart from opportunities by Lindi and Mtwara urban markets, the regions can produce and market some commodities outside the country competitively. On overall, identified opportunities in Lindi and Mtwara are:• Beef/red meat through cattle fattening and construction of modern abattoir in Lindi Mtwara to be able to meet international standards. • Integrated poultry project that will harness economies of scale to be able to compete with Dar es Salaam. As roads improve transport costs become less significant in deciding the final prices, so has been the transport of eggs and chicken meat. • Horticulture – Lindi and Mtwara have many basins potential for irrigation, Unlike in other parts of the country there is lack of commercial investors in irrigated agriculture and horticulture in particular • Production and value addition is another potential investment in Lindi and Mtwara not only for the population in the region but to feed other parts of the country as well as exports. Potential fruits are pineapple and mangoes, they could be used to produce pulp. • Fishing is an industry that is neglected in Tanzania’s Indian Ocean when demand for fish is rising. The emerging gas population offers a lucrative market for fish, apart from sea fishing it is possible to undertake mariculture along the sea. • Cassava – has raised interested of many development programmes including the Agriculture Research Institute (ARIs). • Installing facilities to processing of pulses and sesame i.e. cleaning, hulling and splitting (for pulses offer good investment opportunities. _______ 4 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Lindi and Mtwara Agribusiness Support ‘LIMAS’ is a bilateral development project funded jointly by the Governments of Tanzania and Finland, it aims at poverty alleviation, gender equity, sustainable use of natural resources, adaptation and resilience to climate change and reduction of inequalities as central cross cutting objectives. While its primary target districts are Newala (Mtwara) and Liwale (Lindi) LIMAS also supports neighbouring Districts. LIMAS interventions are general to support the poor and private sector to achieve the following: • Improve profitability of farming activities through functional market linkage • Increase volume of out puts through improved yield • Improve farmers return on investments by adding value and increasing forest productivity from timber and other forest products 1.2 Study Objectives The objectives of this market study are the following:• To identify, quantify and analyze the current and future potential effective demand from the oil/gas sector and related investment projects in Mtwara and Lindi regions for agricultural primary produce (crops and livestock) and processed foodstuff (crops and livestock). The specific agricultural commodities to be studied will depend on the food demand from the oil/gas sector and its spin off investments. • To establish the most promising investment opportunities in terms of commodity chains with scenarios of local supply forecasts for the two Regions and comparison with demand scenarios. • To assess how likely it is that the major current and planned investments in the two regions will impact on food and forest products demand is to take off and develop in full. • To document current and planned major investments in the agribusiness sector itself by local (Governments, private, smallholders) or outside investors (check national development programmes – RAS, Ministry, etc.) and the oil/gas players themselves, i.e. in relation to their Corporate Social Responsibility obligations laid down by government and document investment progress and challenges met. • To elaborate on the current and planned efforts by the Regional authorities and business umbrella organisations in Mtwara and Lindi to attract and support major agribusiness investments whether from within the region, up country or even from abroad and recommend how to enhance these efforts. • To profile agribusiness opportunities that would be attractive for local and other investors. Pre-field Work: The entry activity to this assignment had been identification of key functions/actors, secondly gathering and analyses of information and thirdly synthesis into conclusions and recommendations. The Consultant relied primarily from the list provided by LIMAS of key actors and 5 stakeholders, a limited number of respondents were identified through referral/snowball effect. The entire list of interviewees by October 25th 2014 is provided in Annex III. Though limited, literature review and internet search helped the collection of information on the status and trend of the gas industry in Tanzania and globally, key interest in literature review had been to reinforce knowledge about the context, explore documented inclusive business models in extractive industries and confirm some assumptions on long term prospects of the sector. The list of documents revised is provided in Annex I Field Work Approach: It was planned that consultations start in Dar es Salaam with high profile respondents that included the Ministries of Energy and that of Agriculture, Tanzania Petroleum Development Company (TPDC), National Development Corporation (NDC) and Dar es Salaam based gas/oil companies. Up to October 10th, 2014 when the team left for Mtwara and Lindi, it had made consultations with the following organizations:NDC on investments being promoted in Lindi and Mtwara TIRDO on technology and quality assurance on food (product testing) Government Chemist Laboratory Agency (GCLA) on overall food safety in the country and procedure for accessing food testing services. Many Dar es Salaam respondents had required a one week appointment, the team postponed the meetings in Dar es Salaam to be continued from October 27th, 2014 so as to work in Lindi and Mtwara first. The activities in the two regions proceeded as follows:October 13 – 19: Mtwara October 20 – 21: Lindi October 22 – 23: Masasi October 24 – 28: Mtwara October 27 – November 7th: Dar es Salaam. Demand Side Information: This looked at population profiles, growth trends in the regional urban areas. The study looked at; Population/Market Segments – based on consumer preferences and purchasing pattern. To get this information a limited consumer survey was done to help validate/update information found in the literature especially the Business Plan for WABISOCO. Supply Side Information: Data collection on the supply side included; Production of staple food including long-term trends; Production of fresh vegetables (horticultural products); programmes/projects supporting agriculture production in the Regions; Market operations catering various market segment. The list of people interviewed in provided in Annex IV. - Data Collection Tools: The mainly used data/information collection tool was a set of guiding questions, however, for a sample of households a form was designed to assist the collection of quantitative information on the type of food consumed, quantities, frequencies, etc. 1.3 Limitations Faced The assignment faced few but important limitations as outlined below:i. Access to International Oil Companies (IOCS) to collect information on investments and other elements has been difficult as none accepted our request for interview. StatOil field Coordinator 6 ii. iii. iv. v. 1.4 has however travelled outside the country. We assume the information gathered from TPDC and MEM are able to provide a reasonably reliable picture. The Regional Bureau of Statistics were expected to provide information on population growth rates, the only rates available are for regional growths, the Managers indicated that detailed analysis that could have provided growth rates at District level are yet to be done. The Regional NBS offices was supposed to provide information on list of medium and large scale farmers and industries but such information has not been compiled, actually they have just finished listing. The Regional Offices however confirmed that apart from cashew there are limited industrial activities in the two regions. Mtwara and Lindi Regional Offices have not updated their regional profiles hence availability of up to date data has been a challenge. Since the study covered very diverse sources of information, there had been a trade-off between details and breadth. Report Layout This report has 8 Chapters, Chapter 1 as may have been noted hitherto is an introduction. Chapter 2 looks at the profiles of Lindi and Mtwara to provide the context of the study area. Chapter 3 covers the context of the Gas industry globally and in Tanzania. Chapter 4 reviews various investments planned for Lindi and Mtwara. The assessment of demand for foodstuffs in the study regions is provided in Chapter 5 while Chapter 6 reviews briefly the likely impact of gas economy on demand for hardwood timber. Lastly Chapter 7 summarizes findings and provides recommendations. 7 2.0 LINDI AND MTWARA PROFILES 2.1 Mtwara Regional Profile 2.1.1 Geography Mtwara Region lies between longitudes 38 and 40 East of Greenwich and between 10 and 11 latitudes South of the Equator. River Ruvuma forms the Southern Border with Mozambique, on the West side is Tunduru District (Ruvuma Region) and Lindi on the North. It has an area of 16,720km2 of which 85% is suitable for agriculture, human settlements and livestock keeping. Soils are of coastal sedimentary in nature that is well drained, sandy with low moisture holding capacity. This type of soils stretches about 120kms towards Makonde Plateau in Newala. Better soils are found in the North of Masasi town. There are four Agro-ecological zones described below : Zone I: Covers South half of Mtwara DC and South East of Newala. Annual rainfall exceeding 1000mm with relatively longer wet period (6 months); this low altitude area has less fertile soils. Zone II: North half of Mtwara DC, it receives between 600 and 1000mm of rainfall from November to April. Soils have low fertility and medium moisture holding capacity. Zone III: whole of Masasi, North and West part of Newala. Rainfall in this zone ranges from 600 to 1000mm; between December and April. Soils are low in fertility. Zone IV: South East of Mtwara Rural: the zone has longer growing period November to May and experiences rainfall above 600mm. Soils are alluvial with high fertility rates. 2.1.2 Administration and Population Trends Mtwara is divided into the Districts of Mtwara Municipal, Mtwara DC, Masasi, Nanyumbu, Nachingwea, Tandanhimba and Newala. The 7 districts are subdivided into 27 divisions, at the time of 2012 Population Census there were 149 Wards and 694 villages. In 2002 the Region had a population of 1,124,481. The projection then suggested that by 2012 there will be 1,374,767 people, the Census count revealed a population of 1,270,854 a variation of 8%. The mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2012 was 1.2% down from 1.7% between 1988 and 2002. Table 2.1 : Mtwara Region Administrative Units and Population in 2012 District Divisions Wards Villages Population (2012) 2 15 6 108,299 Mtwara Newala 6 5 28 28 157 155 228,003 205,493 Tandahimba 3 30 157 227,514 Masasi DC 5 22 130 260,854 Masasi TC 2 12 0 89,835 Mtwara Mikindani - Nanyumbu 4 14 89 150,857 Total 27 149 694 1,270,854 Source: Mtwara Regional Profile 8 Projection using the established growth rate of 1.2% per annum lends to a population of 1,431,861 by 2022 (10 years after the 2012 Census), and 1,466,432 in 2014 (10 years from now). One source indicated that the population of Mtwara Municipal is growing at 4.1%. Data from past years showed that more people have been leaving Mtwara than those getting in which has reduced the regional population growth since the Regions have comparable birth rates. The young population and the educated emigrate to larger towns especially Dar es Salaam. There is a strong feeling that “immigration” from other regions of Tanzania and to some extent from other countries into Mtwara will contribute to population growth that is larger than 1.2%. Some factors that will contribute include:• Industrialization of Mtwara that require skilled labour will pull labour from other regions as currently the general perception is that there are few people with requisite skills in Lindi and Mtwara. One youth who operates a bodaboda when asked why he doesn’t seek and work in the fields that require skills he reckoned that “Construction companies and individuals who build houses here bring fundis and sometime even casual labourers from other regions, they don’t like us.” • Limited employment and business opportunities in other regions will encourage youths and businesses to look into new areas with promising future. • Ease of access in and out of Mtwara and Lindi due to improvement of road networks and in future the rail line between Mtwara and Malawi border. 2.1.3 Industries Data on industrial base in Mtwara and Lindi is very scanty. A data base of businesses with Mtwara Municipal Trade Officer (MTO) shows that there are 9 milling machineries, 4 bakeries, 1 salt processing. NBS is currently conducting a survey to count the industries. The 2009 Industrial Production Survey identified 9 establishments that employed 10 or more people, these were Manufacture of beverage (ISIC 110) – 2 firms, Other textiles, garments and apparels (ISIC 139) - 1, Printing services -2 units, manufacture of furniture (ISIC 310) – 1 firm. The firms employed 317 people. Lately the Region is witnessing the high growth in industrial capacity as cement factories are under construction. The cashew crop accounts significant Regional GDP and it has been cited to offer competitive return on labour compared with some urban – based unskilled manual works causing shortage labour in urban areas. In the 1970s with the support of World Bank the country built several factories to add value to cashew. Unfortunately many closed business towards the end of 1980s and early 1990s. In 2000s there have been interests to invest in cashew processing by both the Government and Private Sector. According to Cashew nut Board of Tanzania Mtwara has installed processing capacity in excess 68,000Mt per annum. However, processors whose combined capacity is 28,900Mt (about 40%) have been reported as operating, the remaining 60% capacity is nonoperating. The list of processors in Mtwara is provided in Table 2.2. 9 Table 2.2: List of cashew processors in Mtwara and Lindi Processor Location BUCO Masasi 10,000 Does not operate Newala I 10,000 Operating Mtwara 10,000 Operating Micronix Likombe-Mtwara 10,000 Does not operate Micronix Newala II 10,000 Does not operate River Valley Tandahimba 10,000 Does not operate OLAM Sanol Factory Mikindani 2,000 Operating CC 2005 LTD Mtwara MCC 2,000 Operating Masasi Farmers Group Masasi 2,000 Operating MAFC ARI Naliendele 300 Operating Kitama Farmers Group Kitama 300 Under trial operation OLAM Annar Factory Newala Perfect Kernels Masasi Agrofocus OLAM 1 Capacity Status 2,000 Operating 300 Operating Total 68,900 Source: Tanzania cashew Nut Board A market study by NIRAS (2012) showed that domestic demand for roasted cashew is very limited, one expert estimated the demand to be around 200Mt per annum citing high consumer price as a limiting factor. Hence the installed throughput capacity in Mtwara of 68,900Mt using a raw to kernel conversion ratio of 5:1 the capacity would be translated to 13,780Mt of kernel making export a necessary target market. 2.1.4 Agriculture Regional statistics show that during 2013/14 season, the region produced 718,000mt of staple foods that principally comprised of cassava (70% of sample food by volume), maize, sorghum and paddy from 462,156hectares cultivated in the region. According to adopted food security indicator the region requires 460,644Mt of foods, of which 332,184Mt are main source of calories and 128,460Mt of legumes that are main source of protein. Table 2.3: Government Relief Food Supply to Mtwara in Mt District 2008/2009 2009/2010 2011/2012 Masasi Mtwara Nanyumbu 491.30 TOTAL 491.3 Source: NFRA, 2013 3,140.60 737.00 1,010.00 4,887.6 353.20 353.2 1 At the time of the study it was not clear whether OLAM has closed his largest factory in Mtwara or not, informal sources confirmed the closure while the Cashew Board and some Government officials reported to have been not aware. Again informally it has been reported that Export Trading Group (ETG) has opened up a processing plant in Mtwara that will provide employment to about 300 people. 10 Traditionally Mtwara and Lindi are not self-sufficient in terms of food supply and have at times received relief food from the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA). The region has been identified to have many potential areas for irrigation especially along major rivers including Ruvuma River Valleys including Mahurunga and Kitere Plains. Mtwara DC is supporting irrigation projects at 8 sites covering 2,872 hectares under the Agriculture Sector Development Programme/Participatory District Irrigation Plans Development Plans (ASDP/PIDP). Masasi has a potential of 12,000 hectares that could be irrigated but only 4,460 is under use. Apart from Ruvuma River other potential irrigation areas are valleys of Mwiti, Mbwinji, Mkungu, Ndanda and Mkululu rivers. Despite the potential, there is lack of serious private sector investors in irrigated agriculture something that call for a review of the investment promotion strategy. 2.2 Lindi Region 2.2.1 Geography and Administration The Regions of Lindi, Mtwara and Ruvuma make Southern Zone of Tanzania, Lindi lies between 70 55” and 100 South of the Equator, between longitudes 360 51 and 400 East. The region has 4 agroecological zones: Coastal Low Land: Rises from 0 to about 120m above sea level, it has sandy loamy, and clay soils with sedimentary rock. Staple food crops in this zone are cassava, sorghum, and sweet potatoes and coconut, cashew nut, simsim and pulses are for cash. Medium costal Lowland: Elevates at 120 – 750m above sea level, soils are sand loamy. Food crops in this area are sorghum, maize, and paddy while cash crops are coconut, cashew nut, simsim, pulses and fruits. Table 2.5: Lindi Region: Administrative Units Central Plain: is between 750 and 850m Area Divisions Wards Villages above sea level. Soils are of basement Kilwa 13,347 6 21 96 rocks and fertile silt. Staple food crops are Lindi DC 7,538 10 30 134 Ruangwa 2,580 3 21 89 maize, sorghum, and cassava, cash crops Nachingwea 7,070 5 32 126 are cashew nut, groundnuts and fruit. Liwale 36,170 3 20 76 Upland: Is at altitude 850 – 915m above Lindi MC 945 1 14 20 sea level, it has fertile loamy soil and Total 67,650 28 138 541 sedimentary rocks. The same crops Source: Investment Opportunities Existing in Lindi cultivated in central plain are found upland. Table 2.4: Lindi Population Size by District in 2012. Administratively, Lindi is divided into 6 Districts, 28 Divisions, 142 Wards and 541 villages 2. Refer Table 2.5 for more information. According to the 2012 Population and Housing Census, in 2002 the Region had a population of 787,624 people; they increased to 864,652 by 2012 growing at an annual rate of 0.9%. Population Kilwa 190,744 Household Size 4.4 No. of Households 43,351 Lindi DC 194,143 3.7 52,471 Nachingwea Liwale 178,464 91,380 3.7 4.3 48,234 21,251 Ruangwa 131,080 3.5 37,451 Lindi MC Total 78,841 864,652 3.5 23 22,526 225,284 Source: 2012 Population and Housing Census 2 Lindi RAS Office. January 2014. Investment Opportunities Existing in Lindi Region. 11 The population growth rate for the region has declined from a mean annual rate of 1.4% between 1988 and 2002 to 0.9% between 2002 and 2012 leading to a population of 864,652 people. One important observation about the population growth in Lindi is that using the 2002 results the population was projected to reach 960,236 in 2012, the Census results of 864,652 people makes a variation of about -10%. While the Census Report does not explain the reason for variations it may have been due to unanticipated emigration to other towns especially Dar es Salaam or a drop in fertility rate. Common people in the street also allege that the negative message from some sections of the society that called its members to boycott the counting may also contributed to the reported low growth and deviation. 2.2.2 Manufacturing Industries Lindi is grossly starved of manufacturing industries, according to a 2009 Annual Survey of Industrial Production for establishments employing 10 and above people, the Region had 1 Sawmill (ISIC 161), 1 Manufacturer of Other Chemical Products (ISIC 202) and 1 Furniture Manufacturer. Interview with various stakeholders confirmed the lack of industrial activities in the Region. There had been investments in some commodities that failed to reach the marketing stage, they include:• Cassava processing – it is not clear if it operated but closed due to, according to the source, unreliable and expensive power supply. • Cement factory whose construction stopped for different reasons, some mention lack of funds, others lack of electricity to power the plant and others state weak technical capacity of the constructing company while TPDC says the construction is on schedule. • Sesame oil press at SIDO Industrial Estate has been shifted to Coast Region to diversify oilseeds base to include sunflower instead just sesame which is common in Lindi and Mtwara but faces stiff competition from export market for raw sesame. The 2011 Regional Profile mentions metal works, wood works, grain milling, sawmill, garages, tailoring marts, poultry as the main industrial activities in the Region 3. The SIDO online database 4 of SMEs confirms the limited number of agri-businesses in the two regions, opportunities listed are fishing, forest products, gypsum; Agricultural Products principally cashewnuts, sisal, sesame, oranges, coconuts, soya, beans, maize, cassava, paddy, groundnuts, sorghum. There is manufacturing of woodwork items including manufacturing of rope and twine, leather products, and cashew nut processing. Other areas include sea salt extraction, weaving coconut coir items and processing of cassava products. Mtwara on its part lists salt extraction, processing Table 2.6: Number of enterprises in SIDO online database by category Activity Lindi Mtwara Blacksmiths 18 0 Engineering 7 0 (fabrication/metalbased workshops, etc) Textile 7 4 Food processing 7 2 Handicraft 6 4 Total 45 10 Source: www.sido.go.tz/reports/ 33 At the time of writing this report, the Consultant had not confirmed information that there is a cement factory at Kilwa. 4 http://www.sido.go.tz/Reports/WEB_RPT004.aspx?Region=Lindi 12 and packaging, processing of cassava into various end products, cashew nut processing, sunflower oil expelling and groundnut oil. The database above is relatively old, the Regional Offices have submitted an updated list of SMEs to SIDO HQs for official publication. 2.2.3 Agriculture The major food crops grown in the region are cassava, maize, beans, paddy and sorghum. Table 2.7 below shows the composition agricultural crops produced in Lindi. The trend of production shows that there has been a rise and fall in the production; the 2006/07 was the best year in the production of major food crops as shown in the table below. Furthermore, the table shows that most of the Lindi agricultural households produce more cassava followed by maize and paddy as major food crops. The Region outlines crops that are suitable for production in the region. Table 2.7: Agricultural Production in Lindi in 2012/13 in Mt. Kilwa Lindi (R ) Lindi (M) Liwale Nachingwea Ruanngwa Total FOOD CROPS Cassava 19,560 19,966 29,524 1,048 30,141 31,204 131,442 Sorghum 2,894 8,729 3,754 2,865 22,529 9,372 50,143 Maize 11,105 18,210 2,613 3,710 42,527 27,212 105,377 Paddy 1,774 7,263 382 304 6,032 9,573 25,328 447 0 0 175 6,030 0 6,652 35,780 54,168 36,273 8,102 107,259 77,361 318,942 2,295 13,088 5,929 12,031 6,331 39,674 Sweet Potato Sub-Total Pigeon Peas Cow peas 1,925 10,574 7,412 874 8,563 6,000 35,348 Total 4,220 23,662 13,341 874 20,594 12,331 75,021 Cashew 10,491 1,579 0 0 0 16,404 28,474 Sesame 10,378 2,979 1951 0 8,120 14,344 37,772 109 537 1220 0 3,206 - 5452 2,625 - CASH CROPS Groundnuts Coconut 5072 2373 0 0 16 0 0 46 4,076 4137.75 Onions 8 0 48 40 15,425 15,521 Tomatoes 6 0 166 40 20,156 20,368 5544 214 11,452 70,405 121,795 Sunflower Total 26,460 7,720 Source: RAS – Lindi Lindi is estimated to have more than 24,000 ha that are potential for irrigation, of these only 3,661 ha or 15% is under irrigation as Table 2.8 suggests. 10450 Table 2.8 : Potential Ares for Irrigation in Lindi District/ Council Kilwa Lindi Ruangwa Nachingwea Liwale Lindi (M) Total Potential Area (Ha.) 4,332 10,000 7,160.1 200 1880 866 24,438.1 Irrigated area (Ha) 80 1416 1200 50 100 815 3,661 Percent 1.85 14.16 16.76 25.00 5.32 94.11 14.98 Source: RAS – Lindi 13 2.3 Food Security in Lindi and Mtwara Major source of calories (staple) food for Lindi and Mtwara are cassava, sorghum, maize and rice. The established index for food security in Tanzania is a per capita daily intake of 650grams of carbohydrates and 65grams of protein/legumes per day. Lindi is more prone to food insecurity partly because a large part of the Region receives less rainfall that is also erratic (few number of precipitation days in a month). Data from NFRA indicate that Liwale had received relief food continuously between 2007/08 and 2011/12, albeit small, the relief food shows persistent food insecurity. The food deficit in the region has been confirmed by millers who indicated that significant amount of cereals come from other regions. Food deficit can be further evidenced with higher food prices than most parts of the country and indeed higher than the national average price for most part of the year. Lately there has been improvement in supply of food within the Region, the report from NFRA 5 shows that for 2012/13 Lindi had a self-sufficiency ratio in staple food supply of 129% while Mtwara had 139%. The figures from NFRA however, reveal that some 61 districts had signs of food shortages in 16 regions including Lindi and Mtwara. In Lindi almost all the districts had pockets of vulnerable areas, arranged by decreasing degree of vulnerability the Districts are Kilwa, Lindi Urban, Lindi Rural, Liwale, Nachingwea and Ruangwa. Mtwara fares better first it has more surplus at 39% and fewer Districts with vulnerable pockets as it is only Masasi and Mtwara Rural that had signs of food shortage for 2013/14. The phenomenon that a region has surplus but experiences food shortages signals the limitations of market forces in ensuring access to food. Reasons for limitations include inadequate capacity to stock the produce, poor infrastructure connectivity between surplus and deficit areas as well as bias against certain types of foodstuffs in this case against cassava. 5 AGSTATS for Food Security. VOLUME 1: The 2012/13: Preliminary Food Crop Production Forecast for 2013/14 Food Security. 14 3.0 THE GAS INDUSTRY 3.1 Global Overview It is projected that the global demand for liquid hydrocarbons will continue to grow annually by 1.2% on average 6 and will reach 105mb/d by 2025. Much of this growth is attributed to transportation sector which rely on liquid hydrocarbons for over 90% of its needs. Globally there is expansion of transport infrastructure and more ambitious plans and projects are found in almost all developing countries as it has been concluded that efficient transportation system is a pre-cursor to accelerated economic growths. Correspondingly, economic growths witnessed in most parts of the World and particularly in the populous Asia and to some extent Latin American and recently Africa have led to increased demand for transport operating equipments (motor vehicles, railway, airplanes, etc.) In the past, gas had been treated as a by-product of oil production process and less as a primary product, however, in recent decades there has been increase in interest, demand, exploitation and use of natural gas as production costs hence price of close substitute (liquid hydrocarbons) increased. It has been found out that natural gas has a number of advantages over other fossil fuels that includes:• Due to higher carbon emission, the burning of coal and oil has been singled out as the major source of green house gases that deplete the ozone layer and cause global warming, the fuels do have higher levels of dangerous elements of sulphur and nitrogen. • There is growing demand for electricity generation in fast industrializing countries of China, India and other Far East countries. Africa is also growing and electric power supply has always lagged the demand. • There is growth in population coupled with high urbanization rate, projections are that by 2050 about 50% of the World’s population will live in urban areas hence putting pressure on household needs for energy, gas is among the best options accessible. • There are efforts to use gas to fuel public transport vehicles in different parts of the World, it is yet insignificant but a promising technology. • Nuclear energy, an important alternative to gas in power generation is on the drawing board again in many European countries, there is a debate about its safety following a series of accidents including the Three Mile Island in US in 1979, Chernobyl in Russia in 1986 and Fukushima Daiichi Japan in 2011. LUKOIL publication views the future of gas industry positively and points out that Until 2025 global gas consumption will continue to grow at an annual rate of 2.2%. Therefore gas consumption will have the highest rate of growth among other types of fossil fuels. 6 LUKOIL, Global Trends in Oil and Gas Markets to 2025 15 The report adds that “by 2020 China will become one of the world’s largest consumers and importers of gas”. Share of Natural Gas in Indian Energy basket is projected to increase from 11% to 20% by 2025. In response to this opportunity, US is investing heavily in Shale Gas and is becoming an important exporter. Australia is also poised to become among the world’s largest supplier of LNG in the global markets. Table 3.1: Long-term gas price trend in USD per MBtu(1997 – 2014) Source: USA Energy Information Administration In its well-researched study, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Initiative (MIT Rei) noted that between 1965 and 2009 the market share of gas in the energy portfolio has increased from 15% to 24%, but considering the growth in energy sector the absolute increase over the period has been fourfold. Projecting the future, the report adds that Gas price is quoted as USD per Million British Thermal Units (BTU) energy equivalent. However, some reports uses USD per Million Cubic Feet (MCF). Unlike other fossil fuels, natural gas plays a major role in most sectors of the modern economy — power generation, industrial, commercial, and residential. It is clean and flexible. The role of natural gas in the world is likely to continue to expand under almost all circumstances, as a result of its availability, its utility, and its comparatively low cost. MIT Study on the Future of Natural Gas. Executive Summary Page 2. The current unprecedented fall in prices of petrol from US105 in June 2014 to less than USD 60 in January 2015 implies the investors have to figure out their business models to accommodate such changes. The gas price is usually influenced by five factors; usage predictions, demand forecasts, current inventory levels, speculation and the weather. Some OPEC officials recently stated that the ongoing fall is beyond fundamentals leaving behind some critical questions, how far will the downward trend continue, where will the price settle and how long movements take. Summing the ongoing debate as how what caused the price fall Business Insider points out that “No one is sure exactly why the price slid so rapidly, but it's now down to around $60 per barrel and doesn't show any signs of recovering” 7. 7 Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/opec-now-believes-in-letting-the-market-take-care-of-oilprices-2014-12#ixzz3PJzvEDoI 16 Many though are of the opinion that price fall in petrol in the World market is not permanent as it is not backed by fundamentals. Tanzania’s strategy that gas should first power the country, then migrate into export will help cushion the impact of global price shocks, after the domestic has been well served, the gas is planned to feed petro-chemical industries and other energy-intensive economic activities. Finally excess gas will be exported most likely to Asia. This may coincide with the timing of the envisaged LNG plant that may come on stream around 2022 – 2023 ceteris paribus. In their presentation 8 Gulf Research Centre mentions the following as potential manufacturing activities that can directly use cheaper raw materials from natural gas; i.e. ammonium fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, adhesives, paints, fleece, automotive, recyclable plastic bottles, silicones. Cheap energy source generated from gas can support industries related to: iron/steel, glass, ceramics, bricks and blocks, cement, food and beverages, metal working, rubber and plastic products, paper, textile and nonferrous metal. 3.2 Gas Industry in Tanzania Knowledge about gas reserves in the Tanzania - Mozambique Channel dates back to 1950s when preliminary data showed presence of significant amount of gas and oil reserves. In 1970s more seismic surveys were conducted resulting into discovery of commercial volume at Songosongo in l974. The discovery was confirmed by TPDC in 1975-79, later exploration discovered gas fields at Mnazi Bay in 1982. As global economic development especially in China and India put pressure on demand for energy, it rekindled interests of various international gas/oil companies to drill gas wells in areas with higher possibilities in Mandawa Basin and Kimbiji/Ruvu areas. TPDC acquired more 2D high resolution seismic data from deepwater areas offshore Tanzania that allowed it to license blocks to Petrobras, Ophir, Statoil, BG and Dominion by 2012. According to TPDC by 2012, significant gas discoveries had been made at 4 blocks. By 2012 some 35 explorations and development wells had been drilled and seismic coverage of 52,000 km both offshore and onshore were made. Discoveries made by 2013 amounted to 46.6 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of which 8 TCF was onshore and the remaining 38.6TCF was offshore. See List of Gas/Oil Companies operating in Tanzania in Annex I). On- and off- shore of the two regions of Lindi and Mtwara abound with gas reserves (and perhaps oil) that have attracted investments and other developments in the regions especially infrastructure and heavy industries like the cement. On shore and offshore oil and gas exploration and production activities are bound to increase as a number of blocks are yet to be licensed, exploratory drilling is being undertaken and in some areas production of gas is under design. The gas (at present) has a strong pulling effect to other energy intensive business activities including power generation, cement production, petro-chemicals, etc. Activities being implemented in the gas sector during 2013/14 include 9:- 8 9 In Dar es Salaam on July 13 – 14, 2010 Ministry of Energy and Minerals 17 • • • Installation of the gas pipelines from Madimba in Mtwara and Songosongo in Mtwara to Dar es Salaam and had reached an advanced stage. A gas purification plant is being constructed at Madimba in Mtwara, it involves construction of staff houses and a foundation for the plant. Another purification plant will be constructed at Somanga in Lindi. The plants are being constructed by a Chinese firm and were planned to be completed by December 2014 at a cost of USD 1.2 billion 10. The Ministry has commissioned studies on local uses of natural gas including for households, transport, industrial, institutions and power generation in adjoining towns of Kilwa, Mtwara, Lindi and Kisarawe. The most important investment, however, will be the construction of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant planned to be constructed at Mitwelo in Lindi. To make LNG, natural gas has to be condensed at below -1620c which results into a reduction in volume by 1/600 (i.e. to 0.167%) of its original size. LNG is economical to store and transport over longer distances usually by huge specialized tankers. This is a joint undertaking involving TPDC, BG, ExxonMobil, Ophir and Pavilion Energy. This is a technically complex and huge investment hence it has a long-term outlook. Partners are still working on technical options including linking the different gas wells undersea and business models. Optimistically it can take 10 years for the plant to complete and pessimistically 15 years. The LNG plant once completed will have a number of embedded industrial and services around it. In anticipation of on-coming investments in Lindi, an investor from Middle East 11 commissioned construction of a cement factory. However, the construction has been stalled, it is not clear why, some attribute the stoppage to underfunding, others say due to lack of synchronization between the construction and power supply in Lindi is the cause, that, if the plant was to be completed while there is no electricity to power the plant to be operational, hence it will tie up capital while waiting for sufficient power supply. However, TPDC official said the construction is according to plan. At the time of undertaking this study, Lindi faced serious power outages (perhaps the worst in the country at the time) 12, TANESCO has planned a 132KV line from Mtwara to solve the problem and it is anticipated that the construction will be completed by December 2015. 3.3 The Need for Inclusive Gas/Oil Industry 3.3.1 Literature Review Literature indicate that without proper social inclusion policies, strategies and regulatory frameworks and strong corporate social responsibilities (CSR), extractive industry can have limited impact to the local economy and indeed the communities in which the extraction takes place. Geographical isolation, political exclusion and market failures are some factors that alienate/constrain the poor to participate and benefit from such endowments. 10 Ministry of Energy and Minerals. 2014/15 Budget Speech. M/S MEIS 12 Two weeks later there was a public protest against TANESCO on electricity woes in Lindi. 11 18 Table 3.2: Four Key Strategies that Companies can Use to Expand Economic Opportunity Objective Strategic Approach Creating inclusive business Involving the poor as employees, entrepreneurs, suppliers, models distributors, retailers, customers, and sources of innovation in financially viable ways. Developing human capital Improving the health, education, experience, and skills of employees, business partners, and members of the community. Building institutional Strengthening the industry associations, market intermediaries, capacity universities, governments, civil society organizations, and grassroots groups who must all be able to play their roles effectively within the system Helping to optimize the Shaping the regulatory and policy frameworks and business norms that “Rules of the Game” help determine how well the economic opportunity system works and the extent to which it is inclusive to the poor. Source: Wise, Holly and Sokol Shtylla (2007) 13 An online discussion forum, the Tanzania (Development) Knowledge Network (TAKNET) acknowledges issues around which some countries have managed to develop their gas industry under the principle of equitable distribution of gains. The forum, and this was also supported by some World Bank officials identified Norway, Ghana and Trinidad and Tobago as some model countries. 3.3.2 Tanzania Natural Gas Policy The extraction of gas in Tanzania is not new, Artumas has been extracting gas from Songosongo Island since 2006, the gas has been piped to Dar es Salaam where is used to produce electricity at Ubungo Power Station to feed the national grid, some piped to industries and institutions. The gas from Mnazi Bay is transported to Mtwara to power a 12MW plant 14. The prominence in social, economic and political scene of gas in recent years has been triggered by influx of International Oil Companies (IOCs) and the Government commitment to build a large pipe to transport gas to Dar es Salaam which has been politicized. To guide the industry, the Ministry has developed a policy on gas, “The Natural Gas Policy of Tanzania of 2013”, the Policy looks at eleven broad issues outlined hereunder:i. Optimizing investment for natural gas infrastructure (for processing, liquefaction, transportation, storage and distribution} to serve the domestic, regional and international markets. ii. Efficient an effective supply of natural gas for local markets and maximizing gains from export of LNG to international markets. LNG is the single largest investment planned in the gas economy. It is estimated at USD 10 Billion. 13 Wise, Holly and Sokol Shytlla. 2007. The Role of the Extractive Sector in Expanding Economic Opportunity. Harvard University. 1414 The capacity utilization is around 67% due to limited demand in the Lindi –Mtwara corridor. 19 iii. Managing revenue arising from natural gas with a view to benefit the present and future generations of Tanzanians. There are discussions on the design of sovereign wealth fund for Tanzania going on drawing lessons from various countries in the World. iv. Instituting appropriate pricing mechanism to sustain the supply and demand of natural gas v. Ensuring there is security of infrastructure of natural gas in the domestic market as the product is highly flammable. vi. Mainstreaming natural gas resource utilization in other strategic socio-economic sectors vii. Empowering Tanzanians to benefit from natural gas industry through enhanced local content agreements. viii. Emphasizing the need for players in the industry to have robust corporate social responsibilities policies and programmes ix. Ensuring that the natural gas is exploited and used rather sustainably through promotion of rational use. A Gas Utilization Master Plan is being developed to guide rational use of gas. x. Enhancing regional and international cooperation in order to seize opportunities that are brought about by these associations, they include strategically, EAC and SADC. xi. Improving public awareness on matters pertaining to the natural gas industry, one area to be addressed is over-expectations first on likely benefits, timing of results and investment requirements. The Ministry through its Communication Section develops and disseminates various awareness raising materials including printed matter, radio and TV programmes. Other instruments for managing the natural gas industry are:• The Local Content Policy currently being drafted and planned to be completed in 2015, it is providing guidance on how the industries should link to the local economy and sets performance benchmarks, • The Gas Strategy that was planned to be completed within 2014 but may take place in 2015, • A Gas Utilization Master Plan for Tanzania which is planned to be completed in 2015, it will set out priorities in the short, medium and long-terms. 3.3.3 Local Content Policy: Inclusion of the Local Economy The need to map is to ensure that the country and communities in the gas/oil production area are given due consideration in the design of investments, a Local Content Policy of Tanzania for Oil and Gas Industry is underway 15. The Tanzania Natural Gas Policy of 2003 states that “Natural gas resource found in Tanzania belongs to Tanzanians; and must be managed in a way that benefits the entire Tanzanian Society” 16. It provides premise for the Local Content Policy that emphasizes on activities that target to develop the Tanzanian workforce through employment and training and investment in supplier development through developing and procuring supplies and services locally. Among broad aims of the Local 15 16 The Draft is available online and is still a work in progress, stakeholders have been invited to comment. Cited in Local Content Policy of Tanzania for Oil and Gas Industry 2014 (Draft). 20 Content Policy (LCP) is “setting a mechanism that will enable Tanzanians and their businesses to tap into opportunities to manage, supply goods, services and labour. The Policy has been developed based on policies elsewhere globally that set minimum local content benchmarks in the supply arrangements. The objective of this Policy move is to enhance value addition and job creation through use of local firms to provide goods and services. Policy statements related to this objective are to ensure:i. A compulsory Local Content requirement in every Invitation to Bid; ii. That contractors and lead subcontractors manage risks of local businesses to allow their participation; and iii. Transparency, value for money and competitiveness in every procurement process undertaken by contractors and sub-contractors. 3.3.4 The Gas Utilization Master Plan The framework for gas utilization is set in the Policy document that want to ensure that before the country decide to export, it has to be sure that domestic demand for gas are met. To operationalise this vision, the country is preparing a Gas Utilization Master Plan. The first Draft was completed in 2012, it was later reviewed in 2013, and the Master Plan is under updating by a Consultant and will likely be completed by early 2015. The Master Plan has to adhere to Policy priorities as outlined below. Figure 3.1: Main stages in First and foremost the country will build the capacity to use exploitation of Natural Gas the gas to generate electricity that will increase the national installed power generation capacity from the current 1.4-1.5 GW to 10GW by 2025. The capacity utilized now is about 1.0GW. In the medium term the strategy will be to develop renewable energy sources including hydro power plants, coal and wind energy sources 17. The replaced natural gas will offer a feedstock to an array of industrial products. The use of gas in factories and institutions is expanding especially in Dar es Salaam, already some 37 factories have been connected to natural gas supply lines. Also 4 large hotels, 70 households, 40 vehicles have been fitted to use natural gas, there are also some prisons and army barracks that are connected to the natural gas. Use of gas in vehicles could cut costs by about 30%, however this requires that there in place an appropriate tax regime especially during investment in infrastructure, There was a programme to expand conversions of petrol motor vehicles to gas targeting to have reached 8,000 vehicles by 2015. The Programme was stalled for lack of funds to expand the gas outlets network, 17 Stage Activity 1 > Arial mapping 2 > Gravity mapping 3 > Seismic mapping 4 > 2D Mapping 5 > 3D Mapping 6 > Analysis/decision making 7 > Drilling/Rigging 8 > Appraisal 9 > Declaration 10 > Business Plan 11 > Negotiation 12 > Contracts 13 > Investment In very long-term, Tanzania is bracing to go nuclear due to the fact that the fuel (uranium) is available in Tanzania. 21 the Ubungo Natural Gas Plant is the only functioning refilling point at present. In the long run (10 – 15 years) it is expected that there will be increased national capacity to produce gas, leveled power demand from natural gas and excess volume of gas ascertained, the excess gas has to be exported in form of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). This long-term but important endeavour is still at a pre-feasibility study level under the partnership of TPDC, ExxonMobil, BG, Ophir and Statoil. The cost of an LNG plant is very high at a rough estimate of USD 10billion 18. The current plan is to link the gas blocks 1, 3 and 4 owned by BG, Exxon Mobil and Pavillion and Block 2 owned by StatOil to the potential on shore point where LNG plant will be constructed. 18 TPDC is of the opinion that the cost of LNG plant will be known after a business plan is completed but may be in the same range. 22 4.0 INVESTMENTS IN MTWARA AND LINDI 4.1 Projects Registered by Tanzania Investment Center Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) is mandated to promote and support investment inflow into Tanzania, it operates as a one-stop shop for investors supporting them with issues related to company registration (BRELA), work permits for foreigners, immigration procedures, Tanzania Revenue Authority on advice related to tax compliance and a desk that addresses issues related to land. Unfortunately the role of TIC beyond formalization paperwork is limited, they can’t tell the status of the projects they have registered as to whether the investment has been done and the numbers of employment and investment stated in the business plans have been realised or not. Between 2007 and October 2014 some 85 projects destined for Lindi and Mtwara have been registered with planned total investment valued at USD 2.128 billion and an estimated employment potential of 27,792 jobs. Mtwara accounted for 67% of the number of projects, 55% of the potential employees and 75% of the investment value, see Table 4.1 below for more information. Table 4.1: Projects for Lindi and Mtwara Registered by TIC (2007 - 2014) Sector Mtwara Lindi Total Potential Value of No. of Potential Value of No. of Potential Value of Employment Investment Projects Employment Investment Projects Employment Investment in USD in USD in mill USD 15 9,959 1,485.61 9 653 95.76 24 10,612 1,581 1 367.01 1 367 18 791 40.68 13 646 20.37 31 1,437 61 7 3,172 19.87 4 10,990 38.31 11 14,162 58 7 963 31.57 7 963 32 No. of Projects Manufacturing Energy Tourism Agriculture Commercial Building Transportation Services Telecoms Natural Resources Broadcasting Total 4 2 1 180 208 60 12.43 6.27 5 3 57 70 15403 1.56 1602.99 1 100 3.21 4 2 1 1 28 12389 524.66 3 85 180 208 60 100 12 6 5 3 70 27,792 2 2,128 It can be noted that the manufacturing received 74% of the total planned investment energy came second with 17% of the investment. If all the investment of 11 projects valued at USD 58million was to go into agriculture it would have supported employment of 14,162 (51%). Therefore agriculture has a big multiple effects in terms of employment creation. Some projects approved by TIC are under development including Dangote Cement which is worth about a quarter of the planned investments value in Mtwara. Some projects appear to be consequent upon development of the gas industry and therefore will take more time to take off. A sectors that may perhaps grow as planned and signs on the ground are strong include real estate/commercial buildings, broadcasting, and perhaps tourism. Given the capacity and risks, manufacturing sector will take longer to develop. On overall the picture portrayed by TIC data above 23 is very optimistic but does not reflect things on the ground as most of the listed and approved projects have not been implemented yet. 4.2 Investment in Agriculture 4.2.1 The 2007/08 Agriculture Census The 2007 Agriculture Census Report indicated that the two regions had very few large scale farms compared to other regions. Then, Lindi had 17 establishments of which 9 were for crops only, 5 mixed between crops and livestock and 3 were for livestock only. Mtwara had 28 crops only establishments, 3 livestock only and 7 mixed. Table 4.2: Large scale crop and livestock establishments in Lindi and Mtwara (2007) Crops Only No. of hectares Livestock Only Livestock and crops Total No. of holdings No. of hectares No. of holdings No. of hectares No. of holdings No. of hectares No. of holdings 723 1 4,893 3 10,486 6 2,500 1 7,221 4 100 2 Lindi Government 4,870 2 Parastatals 4,721 3 Private 110 2 Others 408 2 1,300 2 80 1 1,788 5 10,109 9 2,023 3 7,473 5 19,595 17 - - 6,175 1 1,072 1 7,247 Parastatals 493 5 484 3 977 8 Private 155 3 5,332 1 - - 5,487 4 Others 912 20 4 1 315 3 1,231 24 1,560 28 11,511 3 1,871 7 14,942 38 11,669 37 13,534 6 9,344 12 34,537 55 Total Lindi Mtwara Government Total Mtwara Grand Total Large scale farms that had exotic beef and dairy cattle were also very limited, in Lindi there were only 40 beef cattle and 100 dairy cattle then, while Mtwara had 104 and 676 respectively. The numbers may as well be skewed towards farms owned by missionaries. The situation may have not changed much since throughout the field interview respondents failed to mention/recall large scale farmers. 4.2.2 Potential and Implemented Investments in Agriculture 4.2.2.1 Sugar Production Investment Initial study on sugar production at Likawage basin and the sugar factory to be built has started. Investors in Sugar production are Billing Limited, TCD Three Ltd and Sugar Crushing Co. The factory capacity will be around 3,000 – 5,000 Mt per month. It will generate 12 megawatts of electricity from residues after crushing the canes, 10 megawatts will be fed into to National Grid while 2 megawatts will be used by the factory. The project will integrate outgrowers. Anticipated employment is 500 people. 24 4.2.2.2 NDC Sesame Project NDC has planned to promote a large Sesame Project in Kilwa District at Mandawa about 374kms from Dar es Salaam where there are 2,000 ha and at Hoteli Tatu some 364kms from Dar es Salaam where there are 5,000 ha. Another larger cluster is Likawage with 20,000ha (about 380 kms from Dar es Salaam). Chinese investors have shown interest in investing in this Integrated Large Scale Sesame and Production Plant Edible Oil Project. It will involve outgrowers. NDC will contribute land and the private sector will bring in financial capital, equipment, technology and the management of the project. Project costs estimates will be established upon finalization of the feasibility study of the project. About 20,000 hectares have been earmarked available for the Project with some 2,000 hectares already compensated for. NDC is finalizing processing of land ownership for the project, the feasibility study is underway. NDC is putting land in the Project, it is inviting the Private Sector to bring in the necessary finance under the PPP arrangement. 4.2.2.3 Paddy Farm: Young Marcus Limited Young Marcus Limited is one of the reported local investors who made serious attempt to invest in food production in Mtwara. The investor (Mr. Msigwa) came to Mtwara as an extension of his business which is based in Mbarali where he has 1,500 acres. He is also present in Songea where he has a farm of 500 acres. His Figure 4.1: Satellte Mapof Mahurunga Valley (Shaded) presence in Mtwara was supported by the DC who linked him to Mahurunga valley with a potential of 1000 acres. During 2012/13 season he developed 300 acres that included construction of canal 14 kms to draw water from Ruvuma River to areas that are being used by small holder farmers. Unfortunately the land he acquired proved to be two acidic which led to poor performance of the crop. Luckily smallholder farmers cultivated areas that had Source: Google map better soils, they had better yield. The Investor has not given up investing in Mtwara, he is still in consultation with the District Authority which has promised him some 100 acres in another area with suitable soils. The soil at Mahurunga valley can be improved by liming but the cost is usually very high particularly if there is no source nearby. 4.2.2.4 Vegetables: Fresh Graduate Youths In their studies, students at the St. Augustine’s University of Tanzania (SAUT) observed that in Mtwara green vegetables had high prices something that posed an opportunity for smallholder horticultural farmers. One student tested production of tomatoes in Mtwara Municipal where he 25 planted 1,500 seedlings. They did very well and he collected 46 boxes/crates. At the time of harvesting the price was TZS 25,000 per crate. After the success four youths joined to establish a group, in the next season they harvested 70 crates sold at TZS 60,000 per crate that earned them a reasonable profit. In 2013 they registered and received support from the Region Commissioner after submission of a business plan for a TZS 2mln grant to cover farming equipment and water pump. The garden was located at Lwelu area Jangwani ward. In order to grow systematically, they were advised to initially focus on Eggplant that is harvested in May – June and was to the company providing catering services to Schlumberger. The eggplant earned them TZS 4.5mln. The major challenge they faced had been theft because the crop is cultivated away from residences, in one case they established that the fruit had been stolen. As an ambition, in July 2014 they opted to go to Kitere where they have acquired 8 acres. At the time of study they had cleared 5 acres, shortage of labour has hampered progress. Water for irrigation will come from a borehole. 4.2.2.5 Other Smallholder Investors A trader 19 of vegetables and fruits at Coco Beach area in Mtwara Municipal has done business with several people who invested in agriculture but most of the have stopped to deliver or left agriculture altogether. The list and type of products produced are:• • A farmer at Linobe (30Kms ) used to produce pineapple around 2008 and 2009. A farmer at Msijute area he used to produce oranges, pineapples and tangarines, and has dairy cattle. • A farmer at Msijute area where he produced oranges, tangarines, banana and pineapple. • A farm at Lwelu/Mikindani (about 15kms) he produced pineapples Three other farmers whose locations were not known produced pineapples and mangoes. One among the entrepreneurs is more ambitious, he is looking into possibility of processing the fruits into juice. 4.2.3 Vegetable Production at Kitere Kitere Basin (and lake) is some 56 kms from Mtwara Town connected by a tarmac road up to Mpapura (29 kms from Mtwara Town) then a detour to the left on an earth road for 27 kms. The basin include the valleys of Mpembedi River that drains into The Kitere Lake sits at an elevation the Lake and River Mambi that has one of its tributaries of 130meters above sea level, originating from Lake Kitere it drains into the Indian Ocean. latitude -10.3666670 South of the The (micro) lake is shared among six villages namely; Equator and longitude 39.7833330 Chemchem, Lilido, Nakida, Chekereni, Mambi and Mkenya. East of Greenwich. 19 Mr. Abdallah M. Kilete a.k.a Kibanko 26 Kitere ward has a population of 10,524 organized in 2,024 households according to 2012 Population Census. Major economic activities at Kitere are; horticulture, fishing and livestock. In agriculture the basin is famous for paddy which Figure 4.2 : Kitere Lake: Photo and Satellite Map is estimated to account for 80% of basin land cultivated and sesame. Some 511 hectares have been allocated for paddy production in the basin, in 2013 the number of hectares cultivated was 420 hectares (82%). One important advantage that Kitere has is prolonged soil moisture content in paddy fields that allow production of horticultural crops after paddy has been harvested in late April and May. Most of the vegetables come from the paddy fields and Source: Google Earth (November 10, 14:00Hrs) less around the Lake. Since the basin is formed by land depression and has a wider catchment area, it swells during rainy season by up to more than a metre from January up to May. After the rain has subsided water level decline leaving behind rich and moist black cotton soil that is suitable for vegetable production. The Case of Tomatoes: Due to high moisture content in the soil at Kitere, tomato production can be done throughout the year. However, the main season starts with nurseries in the last week of March, transplanting is done in fourth week of April when rainfall ends so that there is enough moisture in the soilMtwara for the Town entire crop cycle. The common season calendar is shown in Figure 4.3 below. Kitere Figure 4.3: Vegetable production calendar at Kitere: The Case of Tomatoes Mar Nursery Transplanting On farm management Harvesting Apr May Jun XX XX XX XX Jul Aug Sep XX XX XX Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb XX Vegetables are produced most from July through October, to illustrate the supply pattern, farm gate price of tomato is quite low in those months at TZS 5,000 to 10,000 per tenga 20 in August – September, price increase to more than TZS 30,000 (about 2 – 5 times) from November onwards. The tomato planted after September does not do well because humid and warmer temperature 20 Tomato is measured in plastic buckets, 2 buckets fill 1 tenga. 27 encourages pests and diseases as well as shedding of flowers. The April – September cycle finds the air a bit drier and cooler. Kitere supplies significant amount of vegetables to Mtwara market(s), it costs TZS 3,000 to transport a crate of tomato (about 28Kgs) which is equivalent to TZS 107 per Kg. Some farmers have attempted to take tomatoes to Dar es Salaam when prices at Kitere are at the lowest ebb in September. It costs TZS 4,000 to transport a crate to Dar es Salaam which is about TZS 142 per Kg. Development NGOs involved in supporting horticulture at Kitere, include:• • • • LIMAS has started support to a group of farmers and has introduced drip irrigation 21 but it’s on very early stage. Africare’s “Kijana Jikwamue” Project has also started support to a group of 50 farmers under the funding of BG. Its focus is both production and market development through establishment and support to associations. Agha Khan Foundation under its Coastal Rural Support Programme has been providing support for the development of sesame and paddy in the area. TASAF also supported investment in irrigation infrastructure under community initiated and managed projects. However, the irrigation project requires improvement in management. In summary Kitere has a significant potential to become a key cluster for vegetable production in Mtwara because of: i.) Availability of water throughout the year which is critical for horticulture production, ii.) Proximity to Mtwara (56kms of which 29 is along a tarmac road), iii.) Interest of several development NGOs to develop horticulture with an objective of substituting products from other regions, iv.) Availability of a strong private sector that has interest in horticulture development including input (seeds, fertilizers and agro-chemical suppliers). The challenges likely to face the development of horticulture at Kitere include: i. ii. iii. iv. v. Very low yield hence high cost per unit making products from Dar es Salaam and elsewhere cheaper. The supply pattern of products is highly seasonal against which LIMAS had introduced green houses. Limited knowledge on market dynamics and related skills by farmers especially on the Mtwara market Farmers are yet to be organized into strong and cohesive associations that can attract suppliers of inputs, financial services and other support at economies of scale. Lack of a strategy for sustainable utilization of the banks of the lake to minimize negative environmental impact of increased agriculture. Two issues may become serious, first is application (indeed over application) of agro-chemicals that may find way into the Lake affecting fish and other marine organisms. Secondly is an increased soil deposit into the Lake which according to some fishermen, is happening at a faster pace. The local government has initiated a tree planting campaign around Lake Kitere, however, cows destroyed the trees as they trek to drink water in the Lake. 21 The Consultant did not manage to make consultations with LIMAS farmers because of limited time in the field. 28 vi. Lack of mechanism to enforce by-laws related to protection of illegal fishing for example using banned (small aperture) nets is reminiscent of a bigger constraint of beneficiaries being able to manage the Lake responsibly with increased agriculture activities around. It may be useful for the development organizations that are interested to support development at Kitere to strategically have a platform where they can interact and assist in development of a Master Plan for Sustainable Agriculture around Lake Kitere. While development organizations meet to chart the strategy, farmers need to be organized Lake-wide and not just in pockets that the projects operate. 4.3 Non-Agriculture Investments 4.3.1 Mtwara Sea Port Overview of Mtwara Port: Prior to 2005 TPA owned an area of 70ha, in 2005 it acquired additional 2,623ha for future development of Mtwara Port. This deep water port was built between 1948 and 1954 with the thrust to haul groundnuts from Nachingwea. A railway line was constructed to connect the Port with Nachingwea (Lindi Region). With the failure of the groundnut scheme, the railway line was abandoned. At present the quay has a total length of 385m. A sheltered anchorage exists in the inner bay (basin) with goods holding ground at depths of approximately 20 metres. The basin can accommodate six vessels of 175 metres. The present port facilities and infrastructure in Mtwara as well as future expansion plans are: • Cargo handling equipment include 3 mobile cranes of 25-60 actors, 12 trailers, 7 folk lifts, 1 front loader of 42 tons, 2 reach stackers with a capacity of 45 tons, 2 empty container handlers. Marine crafts available at the port are 1 mooring boat, 1 tug and 3 security boats. The port does not have a container terminal because the volume of present does not justify such investment. • There are two storage sheds with a total storage capacity of about 12,000 tons. • Mtwara port can handle 400,000 metric tons of imports and exports per annum. The port is mainly designed to handle conventional cargo. However, the port of Mtwara can handle up to 750,000 MT with the same number of berths if additional equipment is put in place for handling containerized traffic. The average annual cargo throughput at Mtwara port for the past five years is 136,500 MT which is only 34% of its capacity of 400,000 MT. Future expansion programme: Further, to assess the feasibility of this project, TPA has prepared a Feasibility Study on the Development of Port and Economic Zone at Mtwara which identifies the cargo forecast, designing the Project facilities and services to be provided and preparation of preliminary designs. The amount of cargo handled at Mtwara port has significantly increased during the last two years as a result of increased economic activities. The increase in cargo has mainly been contributed by the Oil and Gas exploration companies conducting exploration activities along the coast of Mtwara. During a period of eleven years, Mtwara port has handled cargo ranging from 132,511 tons in 2001/02 to 234,183 tons in 2011/12 as seen in the Mbamba Bay Port: The TPA has realised the importance of Lake Nyasa’s Mbambabay Port in Ruvuma Region economic and social aspect and they have hired a consultancy teams to conduct Feasibility Study and Detailed Design. The assignment in progress and the consultant is at field. 29 There is a plan to expand the port to cater for the expected increase in traffic following the development of Mtwara Corridor and gas and oil activities in the Indian Ocean. The Feasibility Study for the development of port and economic zone has a 19 years (2012-2030) time horizon and has envisaged new cargoes that have been confirmed with stakeholders. According to the Study, the traffic forecast is estimated to reach 28 million tons by 2030 as shown in Table 4.3 below. Mbamba Bay Port: The TPA has realised the importance of Lake Nyasa’s Mbambabay Port in Ruvuma Region economic and social aspect and they have hired a consultancy teams to conduct Feasibility Study and Detailed Design. The assignment in progress and the consultant is at field. The summary of port expansion plan shows that by 2013 infrastructures and 4 berths were expected to be completed. The infrastructures are in progress. Phase two (Medium term) was planned to prepare the EPZ at Ng’wale and Msemo area ready for investments like cement, fertilizer and biogas companies as well as bulk LPG service centre. The long-term development of the port is mainly tied to Mtwara development Corridor. Table 4.3: Summary Forecast of Mtwara Port Cargo Traffic Containers (TEUs) 2015 2020 2025 2030 Cashew nut exports 9,938 10,972 12,114 13,375 Imported general cargo 10,000 14,026 19,672 27,500 Total Containers (TEUs) 19,938 24,998 31,786 40,875 240 240 240 240 Cement export 1,250 1,250 2,500 5,000 Methanol export 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 800 Coal 6,000 11,000 Iron Ore 6,000 11,000 Offshore supply base ('000 tons) New bulk cargoes('000) Urea export Nickel Total 3,050 45 45 3,095 16,345 28,800 Source: URS (TPA) Analysis Figure 4.4: Port expansion phases: short, medium and long term plans Short-Term (2011 - 2013) Medium – Term (2014 - 2018) Long – Term (2019 - 2028) • Improvement of available • Development of Ng'wale and • Development of Ng'wale infrastructures Msemo area (EPZ investors) and Msemo area (EPZ phase One investors) phase Two • Expansion of service cargo o Cement Industry container –Cashew nuts • Development of the Port o Fertilizer Industry for development of Mtwara • Construction of four additional o Biogas development corridor berths at Mtwara port • To be the official center for oil • Build Oil/LPG service centre and gas exploration. The development above is expected to see employment increase from about 440 at present to 2,870 by 2020 as Table 4.4 suggests. Table 4.4: Current and future employment status of Mtwara Port Current Mtwara Port 180 Oil/Gas companies 200 Other companies 60 Indirect employment Total 440 Source: TPA Investment Section Projected 2020 320 400 150 2,000 2,870 30 4.3.2 Dangote Cement Factory The Dangote Cement Factory has contracted SINOMA, a Chinese construction firm to build the factory located at Hiari Village close to Mikindani Area about 20 Kms from Mtwara Township. The factory is said to be the largest in Eastern Africa to produce 6,000 tons a day. Most of the raw materials are available around the factory estimated to be mined in 100 years. Other materials are gypsum from Kilwa and red soil from nearby Villages. Chemicals which are used to produce cement will be imported. During the construction, cement for construction is sourced from Kilwa Cement Factory, Tanga Cement, Mbeya Cement, Tanzania Portland Cement Company (Dar es Salam). The HRM reported that the supply of cement to Dangote is inadequate in such a way that Dangote is importing Cement from China for construction. The quantity of daily consumption of cement was not revealed, but it was insisted that the consumption of cement in the construction is insufficient. Employment: The factory construction work has employed 1,200 Tanzanians and 1,000 Chinese in the construction work. These are paid wages from TZS 12,500 to 18,000 per day. The Tanzania workers are sourced from the 9 surrounding villages under an organized manner that a job seeker should register him/herself to the Village chairperson. Once the factory needs to recruit new workers, the request is send to the Village Chairperson, and the registered names are released to the HRM for employment. With the exception of Tanzanian experts from other regions, they are required to apply directly to the HRM. Tanzanians from other districts also should report to the chairperson of nearby village and be registered. These includes engineers, white collar, technicians, security officers, suppliers, drivers, earth movers, stone crashers, machine operators and other service providers. Permanent salaries will begin from TZS 500,000 per month while casual labourers may receive 12,500 per day. The management has arranged with the CRDB Bank to provide mobile Bank services at the area once a week. The factory will have more impact through support services including: - There will be transport within and outside the factory who will be ferrying cement and raw materials from various sources - Garage services and workshops for fabrication of parts/spare - Restaurants, bars, - Schools, dispensaries etc. According to the Manager, the type of people currently working at the site and those who will be employed will just “eat foods staffs available at Mtwara market”. They don’t foresee segments that will need ethnic – specific foodstuffs. Linkage to local economy: Dangote Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) people are negotiating with 9 surrounding villages on priority projects that will be supported by Dangote. People in rural areas can benefit directly from the factory if they can supply to Dangote bio-waste materials that will cut down the cost of energy. Unfortunately there are few crops that can yield economical volumes of wastes. 4.3.3 Mtwara City Master Plan: Green City Tomorrow and Beyond Mtwara Municipal is readying itself to host these developments through a city master plan called “Mtwara Green City: Beyond Tomorrow”, the Master Plan has incorporated all possible investment potential into account and clustered them into the following areas:31 • • • • • • • • • Petrochemical Industries (gas/oil processing, fertilizers, etc.) Building Materials Production (cement, etc.) Community Business Enterprise clusters Beach Tourism Clusters Residential Clusters Financial Services clusters Mtwara Development Impact Region Linked Logistic Park Petro-chemical industries have been earmarked near Madimba Gas processing plant, Mnazi Bay Natural Gas deposit and the expected new berths at Msangamkuu. Connected to the Petrochemical and building materials clusters will be a Linked Logistics cluster which will extend to connect with Mtwara Corridor infrastructure. Building materials cluster has been proposed at Mayanga. Figure 4.5: Planned Mtwara City Clusters The Community Business Enterprise Cluster will cover areas of Mbawala, Naliendele and Mayanga. This cluster is near current and planned extension of residential cluster. Beach Tourism cluster will exploit the rich Sunday beaches around Naumbu, Msangamkuu and Mikindani areas and offer convenient access to the airport. 32 The residential cluster which is the largest in terms of area coverage targets to be expanded in Mbawala, Nanguruwe, Mjimwema and Naliendele areas. The residential cluster will be aligned to community Business Enterprise cluster and social services sub clusters including University, colleges, health services, parks. The Financial Services Cluster is located in Mtwara Municipal Council Central Business District (BCD). To enhance flow of traffic the City Master plan envisages a 40m wide ring road that connects all the clusters traversing Kisiwa, Hiari up to Mkunwa and from Moma to Nambeleketela. See Figure 4.5. 4.3.4 Mtwara Corridor Master Plan The Mtwara Development Corridor (MDC) is a spatial development initiative (SDI) covering Southern Tanzania, Northern Mozambique, Northern and central Malawi, and Eastern and Northern Zambia. SDI plan a transportation corridor to ease access to Mtwara port. It involves upgrading of existing infrastructure and future development and rehabilitation of roads and bridges, sea and lake ports, telecommunications, air transport facilities and ferry services being the objective of the project. Improvement and expansion of Mtwara and Mbamba Bay ports, the Port Master Plan was completed in April 2009. • The Tanzania Ports Authority is currently mobilizing funding for the implementation of the port master plan. • 2,742 hectares of additional land had been acquired in 2008 for expansion of economic processing zones. • AfDB has expressed interest to finance feasibility study and land use plans for two ports, Currently Mtwara port is being used by oil and gas exploration companies as a supply base, it is modernized and expanded to accommodate the anticipated increased traffic from oil and gas operations. Several investors are leasing land from the government for development of industrial use. • Fertilizer plants which use gas as raw material; • Cement producers who get raw materials within Mtwara Corridor; • Agro-processing industries; and • Energy companies to feed in the national grid. 4.3.5 NDC Gas Projects The National Development Corporation (NDC) was established in 1962 as Tanganyika Development Corporations (TDC) by an Act of Parliament to mobilize finance for large investments. The NDC main objective is to stimulate industrialization in partnership with private sector. In the gas sector, NDC is actively involved in designing business models and as a result, they have written three proposals for gas utilization that include:• Methanol industry for plastic production, • Fertilizers production, and • Conversion of Gas to liquid as a petrol. 33 4.3.6 Road Infrastructure in Mtwara and Lindi Mtwara – Mbamba bay road: Feasibility study for the 824 km Mtwara – Mbamba bay road was completed in 2004. • Road has secured funding except from the Mbinga to Mbamba-bay Road Section 66 KM Funding Source are as follows: • Masasi – Mangata (56km) government of Japan • Mangaka to Tunduru (137KM)-JBIC/Govt. of Tanzania • Mangaka – unity bridge 70km Govt. of Tanzania • Tunduru – Namtumbo 200 km JBIC/AfDB (Under construction) • Namtumbo –Songea 67km MCT – completed. • Peramiho – Mbinga 78 km MCT – completed. Heavy Capacity Ferry : (HCF) will provide transport services between Mbamba-bay on Tanzania side and Nkhata Bay on Malawi across Lake Nyasa. The MoU between Tanzania and Malawi was signed far back in 2003. A feasibility study for Tanzania – Malawi interconnector has not been done due to lack of funds and the MoU for the whole Mtwara Corridor Programme is yet to be ratified by all countries. Tanzania – Mozambique Unity Bridges: Unity Bridge 1 is at Negumano near the border between Cabo Delgado and Niassa provinces in Mozambique with Mtambaswala on the Tanzania’s side. Construction of 720 m long bridge was financed by Govt. of Tanzania and Mozambique and completed at total cost of USD24.6million. This was completed in May 2010. Unity Bridge 2 –at Mitomoni and was completed in 2008 at total cost of TZS 1 billion, under MDG there is a plan to construct a railway line from Mtwara to Mbamba bay with spurs to Liganga and Mchuchuma. The major cargo for the railway will be iron ore and coal from Liganga and Mchuchuma In this development corridor, industrial development and a promotion of the private projects investment in mineral resource development (iron ore, coal, and natural gas and non-ferrous metals such as nickel, uranium and lime stone) are planned. The rail targets to also transport goods from Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and part of South Eastern DRC. 4.3.7 Liganga Iron Ore and Mchuchuma Coal The hinterland of Mtwara near Lake Nyasa have reserves of 364 million Mt of coal at Mchuchuma and 219 million Mt of iron ore at Liganga whose extraction is planned for 2017. The iron ore will also yield high value Titanium and Vanadium minerals. While most of the coal to be mined at Mchuchuma will be for export, some amount will be used to generate 600MW at the mining site. The exportation will require robust transport system between the mining site and the port. Liganga is estimated to have over 1.2 billion tons of iron ore of Vanado-Titanium Magnetite. The project is being developed by Tanzania China International Mineral Resources Ltd (TCIMRL) as an integrated project with Mchuchuma Coal and mobilization work for conducting detailed study is in progress. TCIMRL will invest USD 1.7 billion at Liganga to establish iron ore mine and Iron and steel Complex to produce 1.0mln Mt /year of iron and steel products, vanadium pentoxide and titanium 34 dioxide following successfully bankable feasibility study including upgrading of access road. The ore mine is expected to start operation by 2015 and production of iron and steel products by 2016. The sponge iron plant will be established in Ludewa district utilizing iron ore from Maganga Matitu (part of Liganga) and coal from Katewaka to produce sponge iron. Maganga Matitu Resources Development Limited (MMRDL) is implementing the project and the shareholders are NDC and MM Steel Resources Public Limited Company (MMSR PLC). Project due diligence and bankable document are being finalized. The project capacity will be 330,000 Mt per annum (tpa) of Sponge Iron Plant with a 45 MW Captive Power Plant. At 250,000 tpa of steel billet will be produced from sponge iron per year. 4.4 The World Bank Support The World Bank (WB) is part of the development taking place in the gas sector in Tanzania, coincidentally Mtwara Municipal is among the Seven cities under the Tanzania Sustainable Cities Programme (TSCP) to which the World Bank group has committed USD 213 million and the Danish Government has committed USD $6. The TSCP involves planning cities’ infrastructure to accommodate the expected growths of urban population. Apart from funding the road project in Mtwara Municipal, the World Bank Group is working on two strands:i.) The International Finance Corporation (IFC) which is the advisory and private sector support arm on the WB financing arm is assessing economic avenues that can benefit from the planned expansion in infrastructure spurred by gas industry. Thus far the opportunities identified include cashew, oilseeds (sesame) and horticulture. ii.) The World Bank Group under its section of Trade and Competitiveness Practices (TCP) is looking into how the interventions related to trade competitiveness can be extended to benefit the gas and related sectors. TSCP focuses on improving business environment and therefore works on implementation of standards and certification, licensing and registration of businesses, taxation and other policies and laws that constrain investments. It is also looking at factor markets including labour laws, land laws, laws governing capital, iii.) Under the Growth Pole programme, the WB is developing an integrated infrastructure programme including road, rail, electricity, water, storage facilities, etc. The objective is to propose optimal utilization of the infrastructure to be developed. iv.) Local content project was designed to look into how the local economy can be linked to the gas industry, it has identified the major opportunity in provision of catering services when the construction of LNG plant takes offs something likely to be implemented around 2017 or 2018. With estimated 15,000 workers at peak, they will require 45,000 meals per day. Related to this likely growth therefore will be a demand for professional catering services in the LNG construction area. The current opinion of WB is that local capacity may not be present to meet the international standards needed, it may be necessary for foreign companies to lead the catering services, local enterprises can be subcontracted in areas that are not critical. The WB envisages setting up an Enterprise Development Centre focusing on catering services, key subjects to be covered are around business management. 35 4.5 Promotion of Investments in Lindi and Mtwara 4.5.1 By the Local Government The respective Government authorities in Lindi and Mtwara have at different levels been promoting investments in Lindi and Mtwara. In Lindi for example, they have travelled and invited investors from different countries including Kenya and China. Lindi apparently is more active than Mtwara in terms of publicity, it has for There is a plan involving RAS example:office and TIC to establish a public-owned Mtwara - A Regional brief on potential investment areas that was Investment Company which will prepared when the staff made a trip to China. own shares in private - Lindi Municipal has digitized its profile for easy access to investment projects. people interested to grasp at the opportunities. - The region has prioritized education as a key development agenda for the Region. At the time of the study there was no specific regional strategy document for linking the local economy to the gas economy. Given the sensitivity of the matter in the Regions of Lindi and Mtwara most politicians discuss issues related to gas cautiously. 4.5.2 TCCIA Mtwara Mtwara TCCIA has been active in supporting not only existing enterprises but also new businesses. The services currently being provided by the Chamber include; a.) Information services to the business community and ICT training to entrepreneurs. b.) Facilitation in the registration of businesses by receiving, reviewing and dispatching documents related to business registration from enterprises to BRELA in Dar es Salaam. The type of services currently offered to new registrants is limited to formatting of documents and facilitation of courier services. Name search service is charged TZS 10,000, BRELA takes 6,000/= the remaining 4,000 is kept by the Chamber. Facilitation of Company registration costs between TZS 50,000 ad 100,000/= depending on the declared capital. At the time of the study 16 businesses and applied for business registration, 38 for name search service. There has been efforts to establish database of businesses existing in Mtwara, it has not been implemented because some members are not yet convinced about the benefits of such database/information and has a list of IOCs operating in Mtwara. The Chamber has attempted to reach out to large oil/gas companies (these are BG, Statoil and Schlumberger) to sensitize them to join TCCIA as well as positioning TCCIA as an effective private sector representative. While the large International Oil Companies (IOCs) are not active members i.e. not participating in quarterly meetings and paying annual fees, TCCIA interfaces with their representatives in Regional Business Councils (RBCs). Dangote usually sends a representative to TCCIA meetings. The Chamber however, is optimistic that Mtwara will emerge a significant player in the national economy and points out that one important signal have been the rapid growth of financial sector in the region. Banks present in Mtwara include NBC, NMB, CRDB, Postal Bank, Diamond Trust, Eco bank, CBA, BOA Bank and Bank of Zanzibar. The BOT building is under construction. As the banks have more capacity to forecast the future there influx is perhaps the most 36 reliable indicator of what Mtwara is likely to be in near and long-term future. However, TCCIA acknowledges lack of enterprises in agriculture in Mtwara and very limited livestock projects including the dairy project at Ndanda in Masasi being implemented by the Mission and beef cattle at Msimbati Ranch owned by the National ranch Corporation. 4.5.3 TCCIA Lindi Lindi TCCIA like its counterpart in Mtwara has received several capacity building support under different programmes including those funded by; Finnish Government under DESEMP and now LIMAS, by Sida and the Foundation for Civil Society. The Chamber has designed its 2014 – 2019 Strategic Plan 22 whose broad objectives are; a.) To increase membership base in the region from the current 350 (140 being in the Municipal); b.) Looking for funds to offer subsidized training to members its members and business community on business management following success of similar trainings. In the past trainers were outsourced from SIDO Regional Office; and c.) Strengthen services to link members with financial institutions (FIs) including banks of NMB and CRDB and with Ilulu SACCOS that has more than 500 shareholders and a capital of TZS 500mln 23. The Business Development Gateway (BDG) Programme that was funded by the World Bank and managed by Tanzania Private Sector Foundation involved Chambers. BDG was a business plan competition, it however brought together entrepreneurs in the region who formed a loose grouping, a (BDG Clubs) which at its peak had around 50 members. Under the same programme a subgroup of about 30 members was established for TCCIA members who accessed financial services from NMB BDG partner bank, the NMB Club. The NMB Club helped the bank to reduce the risk of lending as the Club exerted peer pressure on members to comply. Apparently the BDG Club was disbanded following misunderstanding by business people who had thought membership to the club was a ticket for cheap loans from the Bank. The success rate for the BDG prospective grantees in Lindi was relatively limited, only 5 projects qualified for financial linkage service including brick making, dairy cattle and agricultural activities. UNIDO helped the Chamber to setup a Business Information Centre (essentially an Internet café) and a computer class targeting IT illiterate business community. Some business people turned up for training during the first few weeks of promotion. Later however, participation of the business people in computer classes and the Internet Café waned, at present the facilities are widely used by students and civil servants. SIDA supported the Chambers between 2004 and 2006, under this support Lindi TCCIA opted to start a project to provide hall and conference facilities project as a way to help the office raise revenue to run the office. The Chamber leased a hall from National Housing Corporation in 2006, gave it a facelift and was used for conference (and social events). The hall was returned in 2011 due to increased rent by NHC and competition from more than 4 other competitors who had modern halls. The limited scope of raising funds to meet rent, salary of information officer, and other office running costs. The Chamber received funds from Foundation for Civil Society to review ASDP/DADP 22 The strategy document was not available in the office hence information provided is from personal interview. 23 This information has not been validated by SACCOS management. 37 financing in the region, out of the fees the Chamber purchased a motor bike. UNIDO provided support of 10 computers, a motorbike, a projector and a photocopy. The Executive Council meets every 3 months whose members are Regional TCCIA leaders and District Chair and Vice chairs of the sector committees (normally 11 members). The Annual General Meeting (AGM) is the supreme body, it reviews memberships, budget, work plan, appeal for membership expelled, etc. It is quite expensive to bring 11 members per District to the meeting, the last, 2013 AGM got support from various members/local companies. There can be an Extra-ordinary meeting after 2 thirds of the members put their signature on the motion to hold the meeting. Prominent businesses that are members of TCCIA Lindi are Imran who runs a Petrol Station and producer of Ndanda Water, Double M Hotel, Kadogoo Hotel, Lindi Beach Hotel, Nchinga Guest House and Malaika. Bhavik Construction Limited, Malaika Building Construction as well as Himo chain of restaurants. In Agriculture supported companies who purchased cashew and sesame METL, Olam, Abas, etc. The TCCIA offered an alternative source of information on cashew prices in the World market, the Chamber contributed to inform the policy makers on price. In 2010 TCCIA worked closely with SIDO to organize and coordinate the SIDO Zonal SME. The Chamber plays a critical role in coordinating the Nanenane Agriculture Fair. Efforts to attract the IOCs into the Chamber unfortunately have not been successful as these large companies are headquartered in Dar es Salaam, while Kilwa Energy and StatOil have moved offices to Mtwara. However, a point of caution is that IOCs may feel they don’t belong to the Chamber of Commerce (Trade), Industry (Manufacturing) and Agriculture but instead to Tanzania Chamber of Mining. The companies the Chamber had tried to reach are Kilwa Energy and StatOil whose main operations have moved to Mtwara. On overall, the Chambers still requires support, LIMAS has assisted TCCIA Newala and Liwale to establish District Business Forums to advocate and lobby for better business environment in their constituencies. However, the forums have not continued for lack of resources to mobilize, coordinate and implement agreed agenda regularly. 38 5.0 FOODSTUFFS DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN LINDI AND MTWARA 5.1 Demand by Local Consumers Assessment of local consumers is based on a limited survey done by the consultant in Mtwara that involved 28 people. It is supported by data from NBS on income stratification. Demand for Chinese was established through interviews with HRM of the company building Dangote Cement Factory. For oil/gas exploring companies, the assessment was done through interviews with companies offering catering services to workers most of whom work off shore. The projection of labour requirements for this segment had been difficult where possible data from secondary sources have been used. Low Income: The main expenditure item is fish that costs about 2,500 per week; it is followed by staple carbohydrates that cost TZS 1,500 per week per household. On average a household spends TZS 8075 on beef per week and TZS 592 on other breakfast in snacks like beans, fried cassava, chapatis, vitumbuas, etc. Fresh vegetables preferred by low income consumers are: mchicha (amaranthus), Okra and green pepper and the average expenditure on fresh vegetables are TZS 315 per week as compared to TZS 531 and 2,322 with middle and high income consumers respectively. Local Middle Income Consumers: The expenditure per week as expected is higher by a factor of 3.3 to that of low income. Significant amount of budget is on bread, beef, fish and staple carbohydrates. Expenditures on fresh vegetables as noted above is TZS 1,225 per week excluding tomato and onions where they spend about 4,000 per week i.e. between 1.5 and 2kgs) and onions that costs 1,480 per week per household. High Income Consumers: these spend about 5 times the are on beef (TZS 13,839), Chicken (TZS 9,626) and Fish (TZS9,000). The expenditure of fresh vegetables averages at TZS 2,322. Unlike the middle and low income, high income consumers have a wider menu, they consume the following items that miss on the menu of other classes; peas, nuts, cornflakes, cheese, fruits, lettuces, cauliflower, broccoli as well as Irish potatoes. The high income spends more on fresh vegetables most likely because of their awareness on the benefits of fresh vegetables. Note that the data above excludes tomatoes that costs TZS 1,225 and onions TZS 500 per week respectively. low income on food, major expenditures The findings confirm that traditionally the population of Mtwara Urban does not prefer green vegetables, the low income bracket that is the majority has recorded the lowest expenditure on vegetable per household. Low income households don’t consume cornflakes, cheese, fruits, lettuces, cauliflower and broccoli. 5.1.1 Projected Number of Consumers The Lindi and Mtwara Municipal are projected to have experienced a growth rate of 4.1% per annum recently, it is projected that the growth rate will strengthen to 4.5% in 2016 as construction activities pick up. The growth will continue and reach 5% in 2020 before falling to 4.5% in 2023 due to 39 decrease in exploration Table 5.1: Projected number of households by income category activities. It has to be noted that - Mtwara and Lindi Municipals Mtwara and Lindi have the Mtwara lowest household sizes in 2012 2015 2020 2025 Tanzania. The situation may Low Income 75% 19,950 22,549 28,262 35,557 continue for about 5 to 10 years Middle Income 20% 5,700 6,443 8,075 10,159 as most immigrants will be High Income 5% 2,850 3,221 4,037 5,080 workers with small families and Total 28,500 32,213 40,374 50,796 or people whose families are Lindi stationed outside Mtwara and Low Income 78% 14,916 16,537 19,641 25,068 Lindi. The average household Middle Income 18% 4,688 5,197 6,173 7,878 size for Mtwara is 3.8 people and High Income 4% 1,705 1,890 2,245 2,865 that of Lindi is 3.7 against the Total 21,308 23,625 28,059 35,811 national average of 4.8 people. Source: Estimate from field survey Error! Reference source not found. and Error! Reference source not found. summarize the possible number of households in 2015, 2020 and 2025. Estimated Market Size for Local Consumers. The market size for foodstuffs in the two towns is based on the population projection in Table 5.2 above and the established household expenditure for the local consumers’ market segment. Using the NBS data on wage income distribution and interview with HR Officer at the Tanzania Port Authority (TPA) in Mtwara l data on wage income distribution the Consultant has assumed the following income distribution pattern among households, for Mtwara low income (less than TZS 600,000 per month) make 75%, middle income whose income is between TZS 600,000 and 1.5mlillion are 20% and high income with income above 1.5 million are 5% which include business people. For Lindi the low income is 78%, middle income 18% and high income 4%. Deriving from the average household expenditure of TZS 9,000 per week on main food for low income households, TZS 30,000 for middle income households and TZS 50,000 for high income. Table 5.2: Projected market size for foodstuffs for Mtwara Municipal in TZS million 2012 2015 2020 2025 Low Income 180 203 254 320 Middle Income 171 193 242 305 High Income 142 161 202 254 493 557 698 879 Mtwara Municipal local consumer Total weekly 2,137 2,415 3,027 3,808 market size in 2013 would have been Monthly expenditure 25,638 28,979 36,320 45,696 worth TZS 490 million per week, TZS Annual expenditure Source: Consumer survey and Consultant’s estimate 2.13 billion per month and 25.6 billion per annum. The projection will be TZS 28.9bil in 2015, TZS 36.3 bil in 2020 and TZS 45.7bil. in 2025 as Table 5.2 shows. Lindi Municipal is smaller than Mtwara and is estimated to reach 23,625 households in 2015. The estimated market size will be TZS 20.7 bln in 2015, TZS 24.6 and TZS 31.4 bln in 2020 and 2025 respectively. 40 It is further reiterated that if the consumer basket composition remains the same then about 76% of the food expenditure will to bread, beef, fish and chicken and only 15% to fresh vegetables. Table 5.3: Projected market size for foodstuffs for Lindi Municipal in TZS million. 2012 2015 2020 2025 134 149 177 226 141 156 185 236 85 94 112 143 360 399 474 605 1,560 1,730 2,055 2,623 Low Income Middle Income High Income Total weekly Monthly expenditure Annual expenditure 18,726 20,762 24,658 31,471 Source: Consumer Survey and Consultant’s Estimate There certainly will be a change in the structure of consumption because as income increases consumers prefer more of the livestock and fish products over cereals and grains, even within the fresh vegetables the types of vegetables consumed expands in favour high value fresh products such as broccoli, cauliflower, etc. 5.2 The Chinese Consumer Segment 5.2.1 The Consumer Basket Foodstuff are sourced at Mtwara market by them and brought to their Chinese canteen. The supply market is not well organized as such, they buy randomly, and take whatever is in the market. Only one supplier was mentioned, to be one of the suppliers of vegetables, Travis Figure 5.1: Chinese Consumer Basket by Value Food &Vegetables General Supply. Chinese eat fresh green vegetables, fresh fruits, canned fruits, rice, pork, beef, fish, bread, chicken, tomato, onions and potatoes. The team is divided into 5 groups of 200 people each. The items that took more money in the basket are bread at 20% of the total weekly budget followed closely by chicken at an average consumption of 750 chickens per week by the Chinese community at Dangote. Eggs make 15% and beef 13%. In total bread, chicken, eggs and beef take 66% of the expenditure. The green vegetables that have been the focus of many organizations accounts for hardly 6% of the total expenditure. In nominal terms it is TZS 2.1mln out of TZS 35mln sales. See Table 5.4 below for more information. At one time the Chinese bought pigs for pork, they depleted the stock rather faster and did not find more. 41 5.2.2 Consumption Volumes and Value The Chinese community eat in a group and rarely will they eat individually outside the work place. Hence purchase of products is done collectively. According to the data collected the team of about 1,000 Chinese spend more than TZS 35mln on food per week which is about TZS 5,000 per capita per day for 3 meals (breakfast, Table 5.4: Consumer basket and value in TZS for of Chinese Segment lunch and supper). The TZS Product Quantity Unit Frequenc Unit Total 5,000 per capita is quite y per Price Value reasonable and may week exclude other stuffs not Bread 500 Pcs 7 2,000 7,000,000 Chicken 250 Pcs 3 9,000 6,750,000 captured in the interview. 200 crates 3 9,000 5,400,000 Like with local consumer Eggs Beef/meat 250 Kgs 2 9,000 4,500,000 market, fresh vegetables Fish 250 Kgs 2 7,000 3,500,000 don’t make significant Rice 250 Kgs 7 1,500 2,625,000 percent of expenditure, it Green 10 crates 3 70,000 2,100,000 is the bread, chicken, egg, Vegetables 1,000 Pcs 2 500 1,000,000 beef and fish that take Fruits Tomatoes 5 crates 7 20,000 700,000 76% of the food budget. 50 Kgs 6 2,000 600,000 Fresh vegetables and fruits Onions Cabbage 60 Pcs 3 3,000 540,000 make15% of the budget. Potatoes 120 Kgs 3 1,200 432,000 For more information Cucumber/carr 15 crates 7 3,500 367,500 refer to Table 5.4. By ots/eggplant & comparison it is estimated others 5 Kgs 4 3,500 70,000 in …… above that the food Green Pepper 35,584,500 market for local TOTAL Source: Field survey consumers may be worth TZS 557 million for a population of 122,417 (projection for 2015) that imply a TZS 4,550 per capita per week or TZS 650 per day. The 1,000 Chinese are hardly 0.082% of the population but consume about 10% of the food marketed value. It happens sometimes that the foodstuff required cannot be found in the town, therefore they have to look at other alternatives to make sure that the workers get something to eat. Most of the meat, pork, chicken and eggs are sourced from Dar es Salaam. The most problematic supply is the scarcity of eggs; they are not found when they are needed. Vegetables are abundant in the surrounding areas during the rainy season, while in the dry season, the stuff is supplied from Dar Es Salaam. In conclusion, it can be seen that Chinese market segment is significant at more than TZS 35mln per week in purchases which translates to about TZS 35,000/capita/week, TZS 4,300/day and TZS 1.5billion per annum. The conclusion above is that:i. Chinese consumers though small in number, contribute significantly to the demand for food market in Mtwara. ii. However, the major expenditure items are non-crop products, they are the bread livestock products (especially poultry and beef). iii. Chinese consumers are less strict when it comes to quality and hygiene, they offer a practical market segment that is useful in the transition phase towards high standards consumers (companies in oil/gas exploration). Instead they are quite price sensitive. 42 iv. Since the current population of Chinese is largely involved with construction activities at Dangote, it is rather transient, their number may decline towards the end of 2015 as the plant is commissioned. The Chinese consumers are less selective when it comes to quality, they buy what is available at the Market. They will negotiate the price but less on quality. 5.3 Gas Drilling Companies Another important target food market segment is that of workers involved in gas exploration and later exploitation, processing and eventually other spin off factories. The important feature of this market is that it changes its size depending on each individual company’s activities. The employment model in gas industry has 4 phases, discovery and appraisal, project design, project development and production:Discovery and appraisal: This phase employs very few specialized workers and this where the gas industry in Tanzania is at present (2014). The companies are doing a lot of analysis of data, drilling test wells and in some cases designing. Project design: This may take more than 3 years and for most companies in Tanzania this phase will be somewhere between 2017 and 2018. This phase follows after confirmation of the volume and other geological details. The design includes infrastructure needed for transportation of the gas to the point of application. Development phase: In the design and development phase there exponential growth in the experts from IOCs and small but steady growth of local employee. This phase may take 4 years that is around 2020 to 2021 for many companies now in the field. At this time there is growth in spin off investments and employment. Here actual construction of pipelines, gas processing plants and other facilities are carried out. One such development activity is expected in 2015 at Msimbati and Madimba. Production: The number of foreign workers reaches its peak at this phase and they start to demobilize and over a period of 2 years in production employment structure stabilizes somehow. Most employees are found in spinoffs, there are more expatriates in the industry than local employees. Figure 5.2 is the graphical presentation of the pattern. Table 5.5: Projected employment around LNG Investment 2015 2017 2018 2022 10,000 LNG Construction workers LNG operators 500 expatriates LNG local operators 200 Sub-total 600 11,200 Spillovers 500 7,000 Total 1,100 18,200 Source: WB, Statoil Model, authors estimate 2023 onwards 200 1,000 500 2,200 20,000 22,200 43 Figure 5.2: Employment pattern in gas industry It is important therefore to understand that the impact of gas industry in employment creation is not near yet and that most work will come from spin off businesses. It is for this reason the Government plans to make sure that gas is replaced in generation of power with renewable energy so that it can be used in spin off businesses. Since the industry is in discovery and appraisal phase, employment of foreign workers is limited somehow. To understand the market size interviews was made with companies that supply foods to the workers involved in drilling especially off-shore. Despite the limited scope of this study, there may be strong indications that the economies of Lindi and Mtwara have already picked up, data from NBS on GDP per capita are suggesting an upward trend. Mtwara have since 2011 seen a higher growth in GDP than the national average growth hence the gap had narrowed between 2010 and 2012 when Mtwara just crossed the national average. Figure 5.3: Trend in GDP per capita for Lindi, Mtwara and National Whle the figures on average GDP per Source: NBS capita do not always imply equitable distribution of income and therefore should be treated with caution, discussions with traders confirm increase in money circulation, diversified consumer basket and ultimatley higher cost of living compared to other towns including Dar es Salaam. Project cumulative employment indicates that if all goes well, the Lindi and Mtwara gas industry may support employment of more than 45,000 people as indicated in Figure 5.4 below. 44 Figure 5.4: Projected employment effect in the short, medium and long-term periods Source: Various and Author’s estimates 5.3.1 Catering Companies Service Companies Serving workers in Gas industry 5.3.1.1 Supplier No.1 The supplier has provided services to Schlumberger, BG and Statoil for more than 3 years notes that the number of people involved in exploration activities is not stable, it fluctuates heavily depending on what is going on at the time. At the time of this survey it was serving between 50-80 people. It expects that in 2015 when operations in Lindi (Madimba) start there will be more than 200 workers. The company further notes that it is increasingly buying goods produced in Mtwara and Lindi particularly during peak supply season when prices are reasonable, this season lasts 3-4 months from April to June. This is because most vegetables don’t prefer heavy rains, as rainfall recedes it leaves behind enough moisture to grow vegetables to maturity. From July onwards production has to be supplemented by irrigation that is quite limited. Thereafter Lindi and Mtwara have limited amount of green/fresh vegetables and if available, they are expensive and many caterers opt to get vegetables from Dar es Salaam and Arusha. The caterer through its client has been supporting projects notably in Mtwara to build the capacity of local farmers to produce products that are currently imported from other regions. Some 3 groups are among many being funded by Gas/Oil companies. i. One group essentially run as a family business at Manguwela village, it produces Chinese cabbage, Indian beans, Mchicha, spinach, sweet/green pepper, etc. The group is still too small and has been asked to target the local market. The group that started in May 2014 is also testing production of other vegetables including beetroots, broccoli, cauliflower, leeks, lettuce etc. It is looking for loan to expand production in case demand will increase. The project is in its early stage to be assessed and provide fact evidence. 45 ii. Another group is at Kilimweka some 75kms towards the border with Mozambique. The group is piloting production of watermelon, cauliflower, red and white cabbages, broccoli, beetroots, green and yellow pepper, etc. This group started in June 2014 and has 5 farmers who are active, again the project is in its early stage and members produce vegetables in an area of 1 acre. iii. The third group is at Kitere which has about ¼ acre it also targets to produce the same type of vegetables that farmers at Manguwela and Kiliwiko plan. At present most suppliers are from Dar es Salaam, they include not only fruits and vegetables but also eggs, tomatoes, fruits etc. The demand for some main products per week are; Tomato 40kgs; Green pepper 5-15kgs and Red cabbage 3-4kgs. To avoid the risk of poor performance the caterer has been given a six month contract that will be assessed and subject for renewal/extension. 5.3.1.2 Supplier No. 2 This company has extended its service from mining areas in the Lake Zone where it used to provide catering services to Tulawaka and North Mara gold mines and therefore has good experience in sourcing and supplying to foreigner workers. It provided services to BG and Ophir who during their operations had about 200 people at a time. It has three sources of foodstuffs, it has contracted a local (Mtwara – based) supplier for only dry items that include bottled water, sugar, soap and the like. In Dar es Salaam they have a supplier of frozen products that include fish, chicken, etc. Fresh vegetables on the hand has been contracted to a supplier based in Arusha using a refrigerated truck. A demo plot was established at Naliendele where the company provided initial capital, seeds for cucumber, sweet melon. Unfortunately the group left the horticulture business to continue with traditional cashew collection. Products that are imported by the company include milk imported from South Africa, pork from Brazil or Germany, and beef from Botswana. For drinking water, they tested locally produced Ndanda and other brands but approved Kilimanjaro brand. Food Quality: This market segment is quite sensitive to food quality, they have in place an elaborate quality assurance system. Most companies have doctors who are responsible for food safety. They make frequent test before use through sampling. They keep samples of food taken over a period of time. Stage 1: the companies assign persons to visit and assess farming practices with the aim to establish if pesticides being applied are those permitted and are used in right amount and frequency. Stage 2: samples are taken before the food is cooked/prepared for testing by specialized food specialists who tests the food against many health hazards. Thus far there has no serious incidence of food staffs failing the tests. For beef the company purchases beef from suppliers who have clean bill of health from officials. Refrigerated trucks are used in transport to maintain the freshness. Challenges of Local Supply: The company notes that integration of local agri-business in Lindi and Mtwara is a challenge because the population in these areas does not realize the long-term potential of commercial horticulture unlike their counterparts in the Northern and Lake Zone. Catering companies have contracts awarded on efficiency, quality and cost-effectiveness there is limited 46 room for the companies to invest in training and supporting farmers in a big way. The seasonality challenge that characterizes most of the commodities in the country is another challenge for producers in Lindi and Mtwara. Economies of scale on procurement (ability to buy many things at single source) is another important factor, while in Dar es Salaam and Arusha they can supply a range of products at once, it is difficult to do that in Mtwara and Lindi. 5.3.1.3 Supplier No. 3 This company is based in Mtwara and has been in the business of hostel and catering for more than 3 years. In total there are more than 50 items that are needed to prepare meals, since the target workforce comes from different ethnic background hence tastes. The company has space for the accommodation of 120 people and notes that the accommodation and food supply service are seasonal making is sometime tricky to get into contract with farmers to produce specific products. SBS gets few vegetables from the local market in few months, the main supplier for fresh produce is based in Arusha. Poultry products are purchased from local suppliers at a rate of 500kg/month for chicken, beef come from Kenya since the quality of local beef is poor and there is lack of meat cutting facilities in Mtwara. Fish mainly of Sato type comes from Mtwara. Pork is imported altogether for fear of diseases, so is lamb. Dairy products like creams, yoghurt and cheese are imported. Challenges and some recommendations: From its experience, the company notes that to overcome the problem of seasonality in South Africa they introduced green houses, as it is the local suppliers are incapable of addressing the seasonality issue. The issue of soil quality may have not been discussed because it is too technical, it appears soils salinity has some influence on the quality and taste of foodstuffs, the proprietor has noted that there is a difference in taste for a similar product produced in temperate areas and the one produced on the coastal areas 24. In order for smallholder farmers to link to catering companies concerted efforts and resources are needed from the public to develop the farmers. A programme like LIMAS needs to understand that development of the smallholder farmers is a process that requires taking some risk and is resource intensive. 5.3.1.4 Supplier No. 4 The company hosted and provided meals to Halliburton Company that was involved in gas exploration, it accommodated between 18-20 people at its compound and since May 2015 the workers have moved to Msimbati and Msangani that, at the time of interview, had 120 and 25 people respectively. At the time of operation the company used to purchase products that are available in Mtwara particularly fruits particularly mangoes, oranges and pineapples during December through January. For fresh vegetables they relied solely on Dar es Salaam because a number of vegetables could not be found in required quantity and time, the type of products that grossly missed in the market included zucchini, broccoli, lettuce, beetroots, butternuts, green beans, cauliflower, carrots, etc. For products that are available in Mtwara they are relatively expensive compared to Dar es Salaam even if one could factor in transport cost. To illustrate the price difference, a frozen 900gms chicken that 24 While the subject of soil quality is critical to determine what crops will do well in Lindi and Mtwara, it is beyond the scope of this report. 47 sold TZS 5,000 in Dar es Salaam was quoted at TZS 7,000 in Mtwara. There had been no meat expert and meat cutting facility, no one makes beef fillets in Mtwara. One retired citizen had planned to start a meat cutting unit but he never installed them possibly for lack of strong market signal. A butcher at Magomeni area acknowledged that even health officials are not serious in enforcing hygiene regulations and elucidated that no foreigner would dare to buy meat in Mtwara if he had seen the abattoir. Suppliers in Dar es Salaam were selected after assessing the product quality, hygiene, availability of cooling facilities, knowledge and practicing on sorting and grading, and packaging. One weakness of local suppliers had been mixing of incompatible products when packaging and or transporting. Poultry products in Mtwara are expensive compared to many parts of the country. Chicken is sold per head not per kg and there are no serious broilers, eggs retail at TZS 7,000 to 9,000 as against TZS 5,000 to 6,000 in Dar es Salaam. As for milk the company used to use powder milk (Cowbell), cheese, butter, etc were from Dar es Salaam. A 10Mt refrigerated plies between Mtwara and Dar es Salaam to purchase foodstuffs after every two weeks. The total cost of running such a truck return trip is estimated at TZS 900,000 to 1,000,000. If it carries a 8,000kgs the cost per Kg of cargo is TZS 113/kg and for TZS 1mln it is TZS 125 per Kg this way the bulk and weighty cargo cancel each other in terms of cost per unit making purchasing in Dar es Salaam competitive. Coral finds the seasonality of supplies for local production, lack of business skills among farmers and traders are a serious challenge in linking farmers to emerging niche markets. In the meantime more attention should be paid to Chinese who are less demanding on food quality. 5.3.2 Projected Demand by Expatriates in Gas Industry Non-Chinese expatriates have a more sophisticated menu in terms of the type of foods they require, to use the example of one companies that caters for workers in rigs (currently making 120 meals per day, 840 meals per week), the company uses more than 50 items weighing about 410kgs. See list in the Tile below. The ten bulkiest items in the list that perhaps should be among the priority products Table 5.6: Estimated demand for fresh vegetable and fruits by expatriates market For 120 meals per week Per one meal Per day for 2 meals /person Per month for 2 meals/person Per annum for 2 meals/person 1,000 workers = 60,000meals/month 2000 workers = 120,000meals/month 5000workers= 300,000meals/month Potatoes Carrots Pineapple Cabbage White Onion red Water melon Tomatoes Cauli flower Kg Banana ripe Jamaica Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg 100 30 30 25 20 15 15 14 0.12 0.04 0.24 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 2.86 0.86 0.86 0.71 0.57 0.43 34.29 10.29 10.29 8.57 6.86 5.14 7,143 2,143 2,143 1,786 1,429 1,071 4,286 3,571 2,857 10,714 8,929 7,143 4,286 35,714 4,286 10,714 Source: Sample Catering Company 12 0.01 Lettuce yellow Total Kg 12 273 0.01 0.325 0.03 0.650 0.34 7.800 0.03 0.03 0.43 0.40 0.34 5.14 4.80 4.11 4.11 2,143 1,071 2,143 1,000 2,000 857 1,714 857 1,714 5,357 5,357 5,000 4,286 4,286 93.6 19,500 39,000 7,500 48 for local production in order to save on transport are by declining weight; Potatoes, Carrots, Pineapple, Cabbage White, Onion red, Banana ripe Jamaica, Water melon, Tomatoes, Cauliflower and Lettuce yellow. It is true that with an exception of Irish potatoes, there have been initiatives to promote production of carrots, while cabbage, water melon, tomatoes and lettuce. The demand for the above products will grow significantly when the construction of the LNG plant start around 2018. It can be noted that a camp of 5,000 workers will require about 36Mt of Irish potatoes per month, 10mt of carrots and pineapple. Other important vegetables are cabbage white at about 8Mt, Onion red and banana ripe Jamaica at around 7Mt per month. Note that WB estimates that during the height of construction work in year 2 through 4 of construction of the LNG plant, meals per month will range from 900,000 to 1,350,000, these two figures are multiples of 2 and 3 from the estimate above. 5.4 Items on the menu of gas expatriates Potatoes, Carrots, Pineapple, Cabbage White, Onion red, Banana ripe Jamaica, Water melon, Tomatoes, Cauliflower, Lettuce yellow, Broccoli, Onion white, Sweet melon, Baby marrow (zucchini), Butternut, Cabbage Chunese, Cucumber, Leeks, Pumpkin, Aubergine (Egg Plant), Avocado, Cabbage Red, Celery, Grapes red, Grapes white, Lemon, Lettuce Chinese, Pawpaw, Raspberries, Red pepper, Strawberries, Turnips, Green pepper, Mangoes, Yellow pepper, Asparagus, Onion Spring, Basil, Chili green, Chili red, Coriander, Mint, Orange (imported) and Parsley. Demand of Foodstuffs by Hotels and Restaurants Another segment that may cater for both local and foreign consumers is the hotels and restaurants, it has however to be understood that Mtwara is more active in terms of upper market hotels compared to Lindi. In Lindi the largest hotel is Lindi Beach Resort with 16 rooms. Apart from this survey, the report has enriched its findings with a study commissioned by LIMAS to support WABISOCO to establish a supply chain destined for upper market hotels and companies operating in the gas industry. 5.4.1.1 Hotels and Restaurants in Mtwara VETA Hotel Mtwara receives about 30 customers daily who take meals there. It is estimated that 85% of their customers are participants of seminars, workshops, short course trainings and Government officials. Foodstuffs consumed at the hotel are: assorted green vegetables (mainly mchicha, spinach, Chinese cabbage, cow peas leaves, eggplant, yam, carrots, tomatoes, onions, green pepper, garlic, ginger, etc.), fruits, dry foods like rice, maize flour, beans, assorted spices, meat (Beef, fillets), and fresh milk. Also sea products (fish filets, whole fish), chickens. 49 Supply of Foodstuffs: The supply of foodstuffs used at VETA Hotel has been contracted to local food supply companies. The main supplier of vegetables is Mchepa Vegetable Farm. It has been reported that the supplier has organized small farmer groups in the villages who supply him with the vegetables around March through June. Supplies from Mtwara are suppressed from July onwards as lit is too dry, this time most of vegetables are brought from Dare Salaam. Ginger and other spices are bought at Mtwara general market. Carrots Table 5.7: Weekly supplies of foodstuffs to VETA Hotel and cabbages are purchased from Dar es Type of Vegetable Quantity Price in Value Salaam throughout. The supply of dry (in Kgs) TZS (in TZS) goods (maize flour, rice, beans) has been Mchicha 30 1,000 30,000 contracted to another company, Edno Spinach 30 1,000 30,000 Investment Ltd. The Company supplies Cowpeas 20 1,000 20,000 rice, maize flour and beans weekly worth Peas 30 5,000 150,000 TZS 90,000 as shown below. Green pepper 15 4,000 60,000 Livestock Products: The supply of beef, beef fillets, fish whole and fish fillets, chicken and milk are also supplied weekly by Edno Investment Ltd. The supplier buys some foodstuff locally from supermarkets in town including from Alfa Super Market at Shangani area, Muhoma Supermarkets in Ligula area and Mtwara Super market at Mtwara Town centre. Fresh milk is supplied locally during the wet season and from Dar es Salaam during the dry season. Table 5.7 shows the type quantity and prices of food stuffs supplied to the Hotel. It is important to note from the table that, just as the consumer survey has confirmed that livestock products make the bulk of products and in the case of this hotel out of TZS 3.6mln spent on foodstuffs TZS 3.1 (88%) goes to livestock products. Fresh vegetables account for TZS 350,000 or about 10%. Carrots Sub-total Type of Dry Food Rice Maize Flour Beans Sub-total Livestock Products 15 4,000 Quantity (in Kgs) Price in TZS 20 50 50 2,000 1,500 1,800 Quantity (in Kgs) Price in TZS 60,000 350,000 Value (in TZS) 30,000 30,000 30,000 90,000 Value (in TZS) Beef 50 9,000 450,000 Beef Fillets 10 15,000 150,000 Fish whole (pcs) 200 3,000 600,000 Fish fillets 20 10,000 200,000 Chicken- Broiler (pcs) 100 11,000 1,100,000 Chicken- Local (pcs) 50 13,000 650,000 Milk Fresh(small packets) (carton) 1 4,500 Loose fresh milk (lts) 20 1,800 4,500 36,000 Sub-total 3,190,500 Total Budget for Main Foods 3,630,500 Source: Field Survey Quality Issues: The Chief Cook is responsible for investigating and sorting out the products by visual inspection. The Hotel accepts some packed food products from supermarkets with TBS stamp or an International standard label and valid expiry date only. There are no institutions/organizations that certify/test food quality in Mtwara that are used in hotels. Normally at tendering stage the supplier must present documents necessary for running foodstuff business including Business License, TFDA certification of foodstuff and approved tender documents. The Management of the Hotel believes that the food products sold are in good condition and safe as far as the suppliers have TFDA certificates. 50 Procurement Arrangements: Tenders are advertised in the mass media, applicants are provided with special forms, tenderers are informed of the procedures. The Hotel Management is mandated to select the suitable suppliers. Re-ordering is done 2- 3 days before the stock is finished. The procurement officer makes sure that here is a buffer stock for 3 to 4 days for emergency. The supplier arranges for transport and incurs the all the costs up to the hotels kitchen/store. Challenges Facing the Hotel in Food Catering Services: The main challenge facing the limited range of foodstuffs in the market and availability. Another challenge is price fluctuation which occurs seasonally at the local market. The hotel has to align its prices with the market prices. Sea products are in high demand in the hotel market 25, but Table 5.8: Sample price difference between Mtwara supply is low and not consistent, quite often it and Dar es Salaam has to order from Dar es Salaam. Unreliability Item Mtwara Dar es Difference of deliveries forces the Hotel to carry more Salaam stocks which adds cost. Beef fillet 17,000 8,000 113% (TZS/Kg) 5.4.1.2 Msemo Hotel Mtwara Chicken (TZS/Kg) Tomato (TZS/Kg) Carrots, green pepper (TZS/Kg) 8,500 2,500 3,500 5,000 1,200 1,500 70% 108% 133% Target Market segment: Msemo Hotel is frequented by foreigners, the Whites, Indians and Chinese, they are estimated to make 65% of the customers. The remaining 35% are Source: Field Survey Tanzanian families who came with their friends, children and relatives to spend weekends at the hotel. The major consumer group is the Chinese, they usually visit the Hotel in groups hence make a larger share of the market in terms of revenue. At the time of the survey, the number of customers had dwindled following the May 2013 civil riots over Government plan to pipe the gas to Dar es Salaam. The riots paralyzed social services and hotel industry in Mtwara. Since then, the Hotel lost about 60% of her customers. Type and sources of supplies: Most of the beef, chicken, eggs and milk are supplied from Dar es Salaam, they come by air and are charged TZS 1,000 per Kg, and almost 80% of the supplies are brought by air. Arrangement is done in Dar es Salaam by long experienced Indian business people who source special type of meat/beef and arrange for transport to Mtwara. The owners of the butchers and poultry in Dar es Salaam are registered and certified by TFDA. Food supplies from Dar are kept under freezing temperature in special cool boxes. The Manager notes that for most items it is cheaper and reliable to place orders from Dar e Salaam than to rely on Mtwara. Weekly supplies depend on the type of visitors/clients received. Weight and packages also are negotiable with a supplier according to the weekly needs of the Hotel. In case of emergency, beef and fillet are supplied by Alpha Export Ltd and Jafari Suppliers Ltd. in Mtwara. Chicken are supplied by Kuku Poa Company in Dar e Salaam. Seafood is sourced fresh within Mtwara though most of it is not available in Mtwara, its purchased from Kisutu Market in Dar es Salaam. Few of the vegetables are supplied by Garden Kevin in Mtwara. Rice maize flour, wheat flour and beans are supplied by local suppliers. 25 Note the conclusions and recommendations 51 5.5 Specialized Fresh Vegetable Suppliers In major towns there are convenience kiosks that do vegetable and fruit vending, their key value addition in the supply chain may include logistics that is making products are closer to Table 5.9: Major sources of food supply for Edino consumers, sorting and grading, because Investment these outlets have limited regular customers Item Source Quantity in they have to assure them of quality and Mt per consistency in order to retain them. Below is annum an account of some few interviewed in Rice Kyela 2 Mtwara and Lindi Rice Mtwara 10 5.5.1 Edino Investment Rice Ifakara Beans Mtwara & Songea Maize flour Mtwara Cooking oil - Dar es Salaam Sunola Tomato Iringa and Kitere Meat Ikwiriri famers Milk Own cows Source: Field Survey 50 5 50 10 cartons Edino Investment was established in 1997 with the aim of supplying foodstuff to various schools, hotels and other government 8 institutions in Mtwara and Kagera Regions. 3 The proprietor owns two hotels in town called 5,460lts Victory and Lemon Tree Hotel. The company supplies foodstuffs to many organizations in Mtwara including Naliendele Agricultural Research Institute and Sabodo Secondary schools, VETA College, VETA Hotel, ATS, COTC and Victoria Hotel. Sources of foodstuffs: Edino supply beans, maize flour, rice, sugar, sunflower cooking oil, onions, tomatoes, meat and milk. Rice is bought from Ifakara mainly; however 10tones is bought Table 5.10: Supplies handled by Epam per week (in locally from Mtwara during the month of June Kgs) to August. High quality rice for hotels is SODEXO MDO RSS brought from Kyela. Beans are brought from Tomatoes 50 50 30 Songea. Tomatoes are bought from Kitere dam Cabbages 200 200 100 from October to December while other months Carrots 50 50 20 she buys from Iringa. Green Pepper 50 50 20 1,000 1,000 600 Meat: Cows from Ikwiriri livestock keepers and Potatoes 50 50 30 slaughtered in Mtwara Butchers. She was Onions 150 150 100 selling 1,276kgs monthly during past years, but Rice 50 50 30 now 2014, she sells only 250kgs. She stopped Beans 30 30 20 supplying to Government institutions because Banana ripe 30 30 20 they don’t pay in time and till today, about TZS. Water melon Total 1,660 1,660 970 300 million not paid by Prison Authority since Grand Total 4,290 2009. Milk come from own source, she has 12 cows which gives 105 liters per week and Source: Field survey selling at TZS 2,500per litre. 52 5.5.1.1 Epam Store and Investment Epam supplies fresh fruits and vegetables to companies and individuals based on contract or orders. The main source of their products is Dar es Salaam markets (80%) in low season and Mtwara market (20%). It supplies products to the companies offering catering services to Oil/Gas industries (SODEXO, MDO and RSS from Mozambique). Supply on weekly basis are close to 4mt which is quite significant. All fresh vegetables are delivered in crates Tomato are sourced direct from their farmer from Nabwada Basin. 5.5.1.2 Vegetable Kiosk Operator (Town Centre) A lady who operates a makeshifts Kiosk down town procures all her requirements from Dar es Salaam, in Dar es Salaam she has a relative who usually consolidates the cargo and logistics. The major source market for FFVs is Temeke Stereo. The cargo is consolidated into special “viroba” has allow air through and “tengas” products that goes into a tenga are watermelon, orange, ripe banana, and cucumber. Robas are used to pack plantain, carrots, peas (green) and passion fruits. The consolidation of the cargo and transport to the bus stand at Temeke Sudan is done by push cart youths. The cost of loading at Temeke Sudan plus transport from the market is TZS 20,000 for while consignment. Transport is by bus, a tenga costs TZS 12,000 to 15,000/= and TZS 5,000 for a loba. A create of tomato is charged TZS 4000 – 5000/=. cess at Temeke is TZS 1,000. On average the different between wholesale purchase and selling of vegetables form Dar Salaam in Mtwara is 62%. The weekly turnover is: • 4 lobas containing peas, carrot, beans, cucumber, etc • 6-7 bunches of plantain • 2-3 cartons of apples. The main customers are Africans of middle income followed by whites at 20%. Chinese and Indians do rarely visit the Kiosk. Whites main items are fruits especially apples, water melon and mangoes. Competition is not an issue to the kiosk operator; she estimates that there may be around 6 of them downtown. She does to promote her business not she has approached the large food supplying companies. She notes that caterers in the local market do come to buy peas, plantain and carrots but not as frequent. Table 5.11: Foodstuffs supplied by Travis 5.5.1.3 Travis Food & Vegetable General Supply The company supplies mainly vegetables to SINOMA, the Chinese contractors of Dangote Cement Factory. Vegetables are sourced from Mpapura and Msijute Villages in Mtwara Rural District. Cabbages, Cucumber, Onions, broccoli, celery, green pepper and carrots are supplied under weekly bases. In one bag, Product Cabbage/Pc Qtty per Frequency day per week Roba 5 3 Unit Price 75,000 Value (TZS) 1,125,000 Chicken 200pcs 3 8,500 5,100,000 Broccoli, celery, green pepper, carrots, egg plant & others Cucumber, Onions, Eggs 5 bags 3 30,500 457,500 2 in small bags 50 crates 3 35,000 210,000 3 7,000 1,050,000 Source: Field Survey 53 25 pcs of cabbage is packed @ 3.6 kgs. Eggs, meat/beef and chicken are sourced from Matuli Chick Farm Fresh in Dar es Salaam, the main supplier of chicken to Travis. Epam supplies fresh fruits and vegetables to companies and individuals based on contract or orders. The main source of their products is Dar es Salaam markets (80%) in low season and Mtwara market (20%). It supplies products to the companies offering catering services to Oil/Gas industries (SODEXO, MDO and RSS from Mozambique). Supply on weekly basis are close to 4mt which is quite significant. All fresh vegetables are delivered in crates Tomato are sourced direct from their farmer from Nabwada Basin. 5.6 Grain Millers in Lindi and Mtwara 5.6.1 Millers in Mtwara Mtwara Municipal uses maize from within the region May and August, in other months major sources of maize and sometime packed flour are surplus regions of Ruvuma and Tanga. There had been time when Mtwara received maize from as far as Uganda and sometime from Northern Mozambique. As roads improves over time, the contribution of transport cost to the final cost is decreases because better roads attracts competition and truck operating costs is low. On average transport from most sources adds between TZS 120 and 130 per kg. Price trend: During the average production year the price of maize flower in April through June is around TZS 750/kg, it increases to TZS 920-1,000 between January and March. Thereafter produce from within Mtwara dominate the market and prices start to decline as Table 3.2 indicates below for 2013. Table 5.12: Retail Price of a Kilogram of maize flour in Mtwara Municipal in 2013 Month>> Price (TZS/kg) April 740 May June July August Sept. Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb. 750 750 750 800 800 840 850 880 920 1 000 March 1 000 Prices were abnormally high in 2012 when the price of maize recoded a price of TZS 90,000 per 100kgs bag against an average of TZS 50,000-80,000. The inflow of grain from other regions into Mtwara town is estimated by the miller at around 350mt/week for rice and 300mt for maize, maize is traded at Mikindani and Msijute. Institutions purchase rice and Cassava flour is not favoured by maize flour through traders who have been awarded urban consumers in Mtwara as a tenders. Major ones in Mtwara include are Tanzania result it is not part of the products Education Institute, Prison, and some Boarding Secondary being marketed by millers. Schools. It has been difficult for millers to get tenders to supply foodstuffs directly to institutional consumers because lack of transparency and some employees having interests in the business. The Whites are known not to buy maize and rice from millers. Chinese buyers prefer rice over other grains but they are not very regular buyers, they bargain very hard and have many options. It is estimated that there may be 6 large millers in Mtwara Town and many other smaller units. The miller has no large farmer within Mtwara DC who supplies large amount of maize and/or rice/paddy. He attributes lack of large scale farmers to some natural factors and most likely soils and or rainfall 54 amount and pattern. The miller is of the opinion that salty soils are the cause of poor agriculture performance. Better soils are found in Masasi, Newala, Tunduru, Liwale and Nachingwea. Refer to . Rice from within Mtwara comes into the market earlier than other parts of the country in April and is available till around June. Tandahimba District is the main producer of paddy along Ruvuma River. During May - June period some Mtwara rice is shipped to Dar es Salaam because the price then is very attractive in Dar es Salaam that offers a window of opportunity for LIndi/Mtwara farmers. Grain millers have little knowledge on maize flour quality issues especially on moisture measurements, hygiene, food safety, packaging and the whole issues of Afflatoxins in maize and its flour. Another miller noted that she has never been able to sell maize or rice to companies that supply food to gas workers, the Chinese prefer rice over maize but they have never purchased any rice at her mill. 5.6.2 Millers in Lindi In Lindi 3 millers were surveyed, grains available for milling are paddy, maize and to a small extent Sorghum. Quantity for each crop depends on the Table 5.13: Quantity of Paddy Processed per week performance of rainfall. Processors indicate that by millers in Lindi (In Metric Tonnes) paddy is the major crop milled, for miller No. 1 Peak season Low season paddy accounts for 70% of the operating time, Grain Miller maize 27% and sorghum about 3%. The two (6 Months) (6 Months) other millers process only paddy. Paddy comes Khaif 50 25 from different sources including from other VARA 30 10 regions notably Ruvuma and Coast Region 70 35 (Ikwiriri). Sources within Lindi are Lindi Rural Tumaini One (Milola, Kinyope, Rutamba, and Kiwalala. Maize Source: Field Survey comes mainly from Ruangwa, Nachingwea, Masasi, Tunduru and Songea. The machines are very busy during June – November period. The three millers are estimated to process 5,700mt per annum. Table 5.14: Retail price trend for rice and maize in Lindi Municipal in 2013 Jan 70 Feb 70 Mar 70 Apr 70 May 80 Jun 45 Jul 45 Aug 50 Sep 60 Oct 60 Nov 60 Dec 60 Paddy/Bag (TZS'000) Rice/Kg 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,450 900 900 1,000 1,100 1,250 1,300 1,300 Maize/kg 600 500 500 450 450 450 450 500 500 500 500 600 Maize Flour/Kg 1,000 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 1,000 There is good amount of maize flour that come from other parts of the country via Dar es Salaam, hence the milling capacity of 5,700mt by the 3 larger millers is just part of the supply into the town. 5.7 WABISOCO and Vegetable and Fruits Kiosk Operators 5.7.1 WABISOCO Mtwara market is the main food market that supply all food varieties throughout the year from different sources, within the region and outside the region. Talking to WABISOCO leader he said, 55 supply trend of food items at the market has changed compared to the past 5 year, the dependency of food from outside Mtwara and Lindi has decreased, it is estimated that about 5 years back, the Municipal markets depended on other regions at 65% for fruits, 55% for green vegetables and about 80% for cereals. About 50% of the products are delivered at the market direct from farm by farmers most of whom are in peri-urban and from Kitere, the remaining 50% passes through traders/middlemen. For products produced within Mtwara, the products are transported in trucks of 2 to 5 tons from farm to the market daily. Usually market operators will bargain hard with farmers and get relatively cheaper price compared to middlemen. The variation is selling prices between farmers and middlemen is due to limited knowledge by farmers on market dynamics that many times involve timing. Procurement arrangement is not formal though Figure 5.5: Profitability of vegetable business at Mtwara, they have communication with Lindi and Masasi in September 2014 product suppliers. Currently the main source point of product is Kitere that is about 60Km from Mtwara Town. Analysis of profitability of vegetable business shows that the traders make an average margin of 45%, the margins are 25% to 28% for tomatoes and highest for green pepper (at 74%) and carrots (59%) and cabbages (58%). The supply of green vegetables in Mtwara, Lindi and Masasi confirms the information provided by farmers and traders, using tomato as an indicator prices are high in January through April when they start to fall reaching the lowest around July, from September they start which price pattern shows that NB: Brokerage fee is 10% of the selling price in Mtwara market. WABISOCO had been working with LIMAS to introduce an improved market facility that will be dedicated FFVs. Under the agreement with LIMAS, WABISOCO was to acquire land and build the structure and LIMAS was to provide equipment for storage, promotion and technical assistance. However, WABISOCO has failed to acquire the land needed and is afraid that since recently the Municipal Council has dropped WABISOCO as the agent for levy collection at the general market, the cooperative is afraid that even the new market will be ceded to the Municipal in terms of levy collection. Failure of the cooperative to collect the levy will limit their capacity to pay back the investment and it seems WABISOCO had expected that LIMAS will build the structure. 56 6.0 LIKELY IMPACT OF GAS INDUSTRY ON FOREST RESOURCES 6.1 Stock of Forest Resources Lindi and Mtwara are traditional suppliers of hardwood timber to major markets, in the past it had been plagued by serious illegal logging that threatened the ecosystem in that part of country. The TRAFFIC report has revealed the scale of destruction of forest resources and the entrenched networks that facilitates the illegal trade. In response, donors and particularly Finland has been supporting initiatives to protect natural forests by promoting the participatory approaches to management of forest resources. The creation of Tanzania Forest Services company (TFS) was a key milestone in instituting better governance of the forests in the country. Lindi is privileged to be the headquarters of the Southern Zone of TFS. It has been promoting CBFM in its Forest Reserve in Tunduru and Songea (for Ruvuma), in Mtwara District the Forest of Naliendele, Ziwani, Makonde Escarpment, Mbangala Forest in Masasi and Nanyumbu that has about 28,490 hkt. along Ruvuma River Prior to TFS forests were under LGAs that proved to be too weak and lead to destruction of large stretches of forests. It should be borne in mind that hard wood rejuvenates in more than 40 years. To protect over harvesting and illegal logging, the government increased the loyalty paid commensurate to timber market prizes. It also established minimum sizes of logs to be harvested of 30cm diameter. The royalty rates are as show in Table 6.1. These rates have discouraged many timber traders and when trees are relatively at increasable locations the cost of delivering timber in towns becomes less profitable. Table 6.1: TFS Royalty Rates on Timber Timber Class IA IB II III IV Source: TFS - Lindi TZS per M3 230,400 204,800 153,600 115,200 76,800 Some timber dealers interviewed at Mtwara said they had stopped dealing with hardwood timber because it is capital intensive and does have far less margins. Another reason had been the slow pace at which the timber is sold. There has been improvements in law enforcement along timber routes. On average the forest gate price is between TZS 400,000 and TZS 500,000 per M3. Two timber traders interviewed in Mtwara stated that construction activities going on at Dangote have not triggered demand for hard wood but instead there is more demand for softwood. Construction activities are partly responsible for the depletion of the land (plantation0 forest. Much of the softwood timber found in Lindi and Mtwara come from Iringa Sao Hill Forest. Chinese and other construction companies prefer to travel to Dar es Salaam to buy the timber because there they are assured of quality and ability to negotiated prices. Major buyers and users for hard wood are contractors involved in construction of government funded buildings such as schools, dispensaries, etc which have to adhere to certain “old” standards. However there is a growing trend even in some government buildings where there is substitution of timber with other materials. 57 One leading contractor in Mtwara who indicated to have just finished staff houses for the government, narrates that demand for hard wood had declined significantly. For a typical 120m2 (built up area) house requires about 4.88m3 that cost between TZS 2.5 to 3.0 million worth of softwood. The TFS Southern Zone and Masasi Rural District Council Tanzania Forest Service’s with its Southern Zone Headquarters at Masasi Township was established in 2010 and started operations in 2013. The Zone covers the Regions of Ruvuma, Mtwara and Lindi. There are two forest management systems in Tanzania, those under the management of Central Government and those under Local Government. At District level, the TFS’s District Forest Manager (DFM) reports to TFS Zonal Office Directly while the District Forest Officer (DFO)is under District Executive Director and answerable to the Land and Natural Resources division in the District. TFS’s DFM major duties include:• • • Inspection of forest products which are to be harvested Inspection of timber which is already harvested and issuance of timber selling permits Enforcement of forestry laws which involve inspecting illegal forestry products, (timber, logs, charcoal, etc.) and where they have been obtained illegally, DFM has the duty to seize, impose and collect fines as well issuing permits for sale of seized products.. • Processing of licenses. According to TFS, most timber is sold for use in Dar es Salaam and Nairobi and to small extent Mtwara and Lindi. A buyer has to pay TZS 361,000 for Certificate of registration which is valid for one year, of the amount TZS. 261,000 goes to the Central Government, while the remaining TZS. 100,000 go to the Local Government. Royalty Fee for Class “A” timber includes Teak and Mpingo the royalty is TZS 230, 400 per cubic meter, 5% from this amount is charged as a Cess and is sent to the District Council. First Class “B” timber includes Mkongo, Mninga and Mpande rated at TZS 204,800 per cubic meter, cess is 5% of this amount. Second Class, with the most demanded timber Mbalamwezi, Msaula, Mfudo, Msisim, and Mzambarau. From this type of timber, a buyer should pay TZS.156,600 per cubic meter. Third Class is mainly the Msufi pori that is lighter and used in place of soft wood from plantation forests. These are charged TZS 115,200 per cubic meter. The cost of Processing of timber: The first “A” class timber is charged at TZS. 16,000 at farm gate price , while first “B” class timber is charged at Tzs.13,000. Transit Pass: Is based on truck size, TZS 6,500 for a truck of less than 7 mt while trucks above 7Mt are charged 13,000. In Masasi Town Council there are three main forest in the Municipality of Masasi: Chikoweti general land forest is owned by the surrounding Communities including Chikoweti, Namatutwe, Namajani, Nanyindwa, and Mkwapa villages in Namajani, Namatutwe and Lukuledi wards, within Lisekese Division. The forest has been harvested by saw millers and pit sawyers; species preferred are Afzelia quanzensis, Milletia stulhmanii, Dalbergia melanoxylon and. Mkangaula. Lichehe general land forest is bordered by Utimbe, Luatala, Lichehe Nangomwa, Maparawe and Sindano villages in Sindano, Mchauru and Lipumburu wards, within Chiungutwa and Mchauru 58 divisions. The forest has been harvested by saw millers and pit sawyers. Species preferred are Afzelia quanzensis, Dalbelgia melanoxylon and Milletia stulhmanii. Msikisi general land forest is surrounded by Namalembo, Miwale, Nangaramo and Msikisi villages in Namajani, Mkangaula, Nangomba and Namatutwe wards within Lisekese division. The forest has been harvested by saw millers and pit Table 6.2: Revenue sources for Masasi Rural District. sawyers. Species preferred are Afzelia Products Quantity Unit Value in TZS quanzensis, Milletia stulhmanii and 3 Timber ( Per M ) 691.12 M3 118,240,253 Dalbergia melanoxylon. Mkangaula Timber (Per Piece) 3,500 Pcs 24,000,000 Reforestation Efforts: About 10ha have Furniture 1,877 Pcs 12,355,700 been set for establishment of nurseries Baskets/Fibers/ 6,892 Kgs 4,899,250 of indigenous and exotic trees. About Winnower (Ungo) 62 Kgs 62,000 26,750 seedlings of pine have been Carvings 1,195 Kgs 119,500 planted and is to be distributed to Bee Honey 174 921,000 communities including schools. The Transit Pass 21 112,500 trees may attain harvestable size after Application Fee 18 3,408,000 20 years. For Registration The opening of the Mkapa Bridge over Registration Fees 15 11,900,000 3 the River Rufiji in 2003 was a pre-dawn Compounding 6 M 29,000 of the increasing economic activities in Fees Lindi and Mtwara. The recent Total 176,047,203 discoveries of natural gas in Lindi and Mtwara the growing interest on the two regions which then have created an uprising of investment and business opportunities. This in turn has initiated (albeit slow) an inflow of human population to the two regions and specifically the urban areas (i.e. Lindi and Mtwara towns and some district headquarters). The Country’s National Census 2012 place the population in Mtwara region at 1,270,854 and Lindi region at 864,652. As the population grows so are some of the main requirements for their settlement, the main needs of the human population on forestry products. The needs can be categorized as others; • Construction of residential houses, • Construction of commercial buildings, and • Furniture both for commercial and residential housings, • Commercial logging supply timber for construction and furniture industries. In the past the high demand of timber as building materials put considerable pressure on natural forests, especially those near urban areas and villages. However, in recent years, some developments in the technology areas and the fast depletion of natural hard wood had either provided or necessitated people to seek other options on construction and furniture materials. - The illegal logging activities have caused an unprecedented fast depletion of natural forestry trees. This in turn has caused a reduced availability of hard wood hence raising prices to prohibitive levels. - The technological inventions have also developed substitute materials for construction and furniture. - There has also been an introduction of plantation forestry where soft wood is made available for both construction and furniture. 59 Therefore the prohibitive prices of hard wood, the availability of alternate materials for construction and furniture and the introduction of soft wood reduce demand of hard woods obtained from natural forestry. The real need for hard wood has shifted to export business to other regions specifically Dar es Salaam and even abroad where there is still demand for hard woods. For the sake of this study, of major interest are the urban areas as the economic activities bring more impact and create urban migration from rural areas, therefore direct and immediate impact will be observed and felt quicker in urban and peri-urban areas. To estimate the volume of timber consumption by all the three groups mentioned above may not be easy, it is however possible to try to estimate the volume demanded by households specifically in construction and furniture. The hardwood extracted from the EAM is mainly turned into furniture. The total annual benefits of hardwood extraction from the EAM that accrue to the final beneficiaries can therefore be approximated by assessing the annual timber consumption per household and the value of that timber, taking into account that the latter varies across species. To estimate annual household demand for hardwood, we assumed that timber use is a function of location (urban/rural), income stratum, and furniture ownership per household. Household census data was available for furniture ownership (NBS 2009) and was combined with assumptions about furniture items for which these statistics were unavailable. Statistics on income strata across regions was available from NBS (2011). We assumed that richer households have more purchasing power and therefore own more furniture and bigger houses. Carpenters stated that most of their customers were middle and high income households, justifying this assumption. Carpenters produce household furniture, including tables, chairs, doors, doorframes and beds, and provided information about the timber volume of these items. Per household estimates vary between 0.0367 and 0.0515m3 per year for rural and Dar es Salaam residents respectively, assuming a lifetime of 25 years, comparable with published estimates in Wells and Wall (2005). Table 6.3: Estimated demand for hardwood in Lindi and Mtwara Municipals 2012 Mtwara Municipal Low Income 75% Middle Income 20% High Income 5% Total Increase in # of Households Demand/m3 0.0515 Lindi Low Income 78% Middle Income 18% High Income 4% Total Increase in # of Households Demand/m3 0.0515 Source: Consultants computations 19,950 5,700 2,850 28,500 14,916 4,688 1,705 21,308 2015 2020 2025 22,549 6,443 3,221 32,213 3,713 191 28,262 8,075 4,037 40,374 8,161 420 35,557 10,159 5,080 50,796 10,422 537 16,537 5,197 1,890 23,625 2,317 119 19,641 6,173 2,245 28,059 4,434 228 25,068 7,878 2,865 35,811 7,752 399 Total Over 10 years 22,296 1,148 14,503 747 60 Based on projected population growths in Lindi and Mtwara and using the 0.0515m3 consumption rate per household, it is noted that between 2012 and 2015 about 3,713 buildings were required to maintain the index for the number of people per households of 3.8 for Mtwara. Between 2015 and 2020 Mtwara requires additional 8,161 units and between 2020 and 2025 it shall require more than 10,000 units. Assuming the consumption above is maintained, demand for hardwood timber for furniture will be around 200m3 between 2012 and 2015, 420m3 between 2015 and 2020 and 531m3 between 2020 and 2025. Lindi demand will be around 119m3 between 2012 and 2015, 228m3 between 2015 and 2020 and for 2020 to 2025 it will be 399m3. One practical strategy to reduce pressure on natural forests is to popularize light weight furniture among the populace. On the other hand, TFS efforts on tree replanting requires serious attention, it is important to step resources and promotional campaign to regenerate these preferred indigenous species in and outside the forest reserves. 61 7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1 Conclusions 7.1.1 The Gas Industry has the potential to catapult the economy of Lindi and Mtwara Tanzania is poised for a quantum leap towards a gas-dependent economy, the confirmed discoveries of about 46TCF is quite significant and exploration has just started with many blocks yet to be appraised. It is estimated that exploration will continue for about 20 years to come. Construction of LNG plant is key to the growth of the sector as it will allow exportation of the gas principally towards Asia. The highest impact to the economy may be felt during the LNG plant construction where it is estimated that between 10,000 and 16,000 will be engaged and part of the approximately 10bil USD in investment will pay for local goods and services. Industry experts mention one important success factors for the gas industry to flourish, political and social stability. Another avenue for local participation is the contracting of rural communities along the gas pipeline to provide security services. TPDC is working with the communities to install systems and protocols for securing the pipe which is expected to be completed the first half of 2015 26. 7.1.2 Employment and Income Impact Market opportunities for agricultural products in Lindi and Mtwara hinge on population growth particularly in urban areas and the population that has higher disposable income. Signs of strengthening of the economies of Lindi and Mtwara are evident from around 2010 when the GDP per capital started growing at a higher pace than the national rate, by 2012 Mtwara GDP per capita had just crossed the national average while that of Lindi was lagging behind but narrowing the gap. The increase in the number of salaried workers projected around 25,000 directly and indirectly related to gas offers great opportunity for agro-businesses. 7.1.3 Policies and Legal Frameworks are in place The country has promulgated policies related to gas based on world-wide good practices, Trinidad and Tobago was selected as a model country, and the World Bank suggests Ghana to be among the best African countries in terms of policies towards oil and gas. A rapid review of the contracts related to gas industry shows that most of the conditions obtained in Tanzania are comparable to conditions in Kenya (Oil), Uganda (Oil) and Mozambique (Gas). There is every indication that investors are at least in agreement with regard to the policy and legal frameworks. 7.1.4 Lindi and Mtwara Profiles show that the regions have to work harder Agriculture: Lindi and Mtwara have for quite a long time been perceived as the forgotten part of Tanzania, however, a review of statistics shows that Mtwara lies in the middle of most indicators 26 By December 2014 the construction of the pipeline was 90% complete. 62 including food security and average GDP per capita. The major cash crops are limited though to cashew and sesame. Cashew marketing is highly politicized, lack of proper management systems and committed farmers particularly at primary cooperative societies levels have plagued the widely supported warehouse receipt system. Cashew has continued to be the crop of choice for cash earning to many smallholder farmers. Lindi and Mtwara are famous for sesame production, the two crops are virtually destined for export and therefore very susceptible to global market turbulences. There is very limited processing capacity in the country as well as Lindi and Mtwara. The warehouse receipt system while it has helped farmers to improve prices, it has squeezed margins for processors. Major food crops are cassava, sorghum, rice and maize. In the last (2013/2014) season the regions had positive food self sufficiency ratios. There had been initiatives to commercialize cassava processing in Lindi and Mtwara to extend its usefulness beyond household subsistence source of food. None of the efforts have attracted serious private investment. 7.1.5 Skilled Labour Supply may become a constraint for Lindi and Mtwara The 2012 Census showed that Mtwara and Lindi were among the regions with the lowest population growths which impacted on the overall population increase. Limited opportunities for youths in Lindi and Mtwara and proximity to Dar es Salaam have lead to significant emigration of youths. The Municipals of Mtwara and Lindi are bound to increase and expand due to opportunities brought about by gas and its spillover firms and therefore the middle and higher income groups may raise faster than low income increasing spending power on food. This likely to reverse the current negative net population migration. One of the main weaknesses of Mtwara and Lindi has been shortage of manpower because of lack of opportunities for educated population. To brace for participation in the gas economy Mtwara VETA has been mandated to offer courses that will enhance employability of the local population when investments increase. The response from within Mtwara is noted to be still low and more effort is needed to attract youths. The two regions have prioritized education in their development agenda. Mtwara City Master Plan: The City of Mtwara is under design to meet minimum standards for a greener city, this will lower investment costs for potential investors. The plan is scheduled to be completed first half of 2015. The main constraint to the expansion has been compensation for crops that is relatively high. 7.1.6 Demand for Food in Mtwara and Lindi Municipals is Higher than its hinterland can supply Market Segments: The major market segments for agricultural produce are: a.) local consumers, these form the largest and durable market base. This segment has a narrow band of products, does not care much about quality and is mainly price sensitive. b.) The Chinese consumers these are currently around 1,000 but offer an important bridging market between high end, quality conscious segment and the local consumers. The Chinese are less strict on quality but hard on bargaining price. Their menu is longer than local consumer but less than that of non-Chinese expatriates. c.) The third segment is made up of non-Chinese expatriates (largely of Caucasian origin). This segment is 63 relatively small and irregular at present, it will become more important as gas processing plants are commissioned and most important when the LNG plant is being constructed and operated. The LNG plant will offer a unique opportunity in agri-business as demand for food will increase significantly to meet the requirement of more than 10,000 people at the site. To be able to tap into this market some work will need to be done in areas of organization of production, supply chain and especially the cold chain, hygiene and application of proper agro-chemicals and business management in general. Horticultural Products: Growth in the market for horticultural products is driven by people from outside Mtwara, most long term residents have shown that consumption of “exotic” horticultural products is relatively new in the Lindi urban towns. It is therefore true that growth of population for these major towns will equally drive the market for fresh produce and consequently production. There is strong evidence that farmers in Lindi/Mtwara are responding to market signals, although at a slower pace as noted that Kitere basin has become the hub of horticulture for the emerging market. Irregular pattern in the number of expatriates that form the basis for “high value” vegetables that are exclusively for foreigners in gas industry dampens the market signals for these products. It should be borne in mind that Arusha and Dar es Salaam offers better services because the products are not produced exclusively for expatriates but expatriates find the products at the markets, this arrangement reduces the risk of both sides. Drawing from the above, LIMAS and other Projects targeting expatriates market should view this market as an extension of the existing local population market. The impact of gas to the economy of Tanzania is a gradual one and will take years to be felt since the investment required for exploration, investment in drilling, extraction and processing is quite a long and iterative one and takes many years. 7.1.7 Sources of Foodstuffs Outside Lindi and Mtwara regions will continue to play significant role. A range of products from Mtwara and Lindi shall continue to displace other sources but at an organic pace because market signals are not yet strong and or the conditions especially rainfall and temperature does not favour the type of crops. This will be the case for temperate fruits and vegetables unless advanced technologies are used for example green houses. In this case investors operating in other parts of the country can be encouraged to invest in Lindi and Mtwara because they have the technology. It is very likely that the situation shall be the same for cattle. 7.1.8 There will be minimum impact on Forest Resources from development Despite that it was not core to the study, this assessment has shown that there is a downward trend in the use of hardwood in construction because it has become too expensive after restrictions and imposition of higher tariffs as compared to cheaper non-wood materials that are also becoming trendy. The main use of hardwood in the local market will be on furniture. At the estimated growth rates there will be 27,000 new residential buildings in Lindi and Mtwara Municipals that will use about 2,000m3 up to 2025. The biggest challenge on forestry resources is illegal logging for selling to 64 Dares Salaam and outside the country. Efforts by TFS and organizations like LIMAS should be supported to reverse the rapid deforestation. 7.2 Recommendations 7.2.1 Fresh Vegetables for Growing Lindi and Mtwara Market It has been established that Lindi and Mtwara are increasingly producing vegetables to feed the local market in and around April through July. There is gross shortage post – July because of drought in major vegetable growing areas and between December and April because there is too much rainfall that affects production in two ways: i) Most plants’ diseases flourish during wet season, it is usually very expensive to prevent and treat crops unless the anticipated prices appreciate high enough to cover for incremental cost. ii) Most rural roads become impassable, increased transport costs renders the business not profitable. One reason that Kitere has managed to develop its horticulture (albeit at the stage it is), is accessibility by road throughout the year and transport costs to Mtwara is the same throughout the year. To improve availability of locally produced vegetables with a vision of upgrading the supply chains in terms of quality, delivery consistency and competitive prices to meet the upper market requirements, it will be worthwhile to start with commodities that they currently produce for local market. The produce that are widely available, albeit seasonally are tomatoes, eggplants, green pepper, African eggplant, cucumber, mchicha (amaranthus), Chinese cabbage, okra, Swiss chard, red pepper, carrots, watermelons, etc. Currently, due to low demand in major towns, fruits and vegetables have not attracted commercial investments say in irrigation despite existence of potential irrigable areas that can produce vegetables throughout the year. Market operators and long serving civil servant confess that most vegetables found in the market today are alien to local population and have been on increase following the growth of urban population that include people from other regions. One youth who hails from Mikindani and earn leaving as a motor bike (bodaboda) operator emphatically noted that It is difficult to tell me to cultivate products that we have never eaten nor is its market well known. I once tested chewing carrots, I found nothing interesting in it. I never eat carrots, so are other strange vegetables. On the other hand, the Lindi Regional Government has received request for more than 4,000ha of land to develop horticulture from Kenyan investors. The investors invited an entourage from Lindi to Kenya where they have technology-driven horticulture sector for export markets. The fact that Kenyan investors have mature export markets, systems and knowledge base and business models, this minimizes the risk and increase chances for success. However, land laws makes it difficult to access such vast land since much of the seemingly unused land is under the custody of village Government and an investor has to negotiate with each village separately. For LIMAS to develop the supply chains it has to work more from the end markets and organizing and coordinating interventions. At the end markets, LIMAS should support traders who sell better quality products referred to as fresh vegetable kiosk operators as well as WABISOCO. Assist these outlets with: - Skills on fresh produce stock management - Visibility to companies that provide catering services 65 - Education on costing, pricing, quality controls etc. Link the traders with Lindi and Mtwara based suppliers, here it has to be noted that, this is a gradual process with associated costs, learning by doing and mistakes so as to build trust. Also the major binding force is usually promise of a better than market price. Unless final buyers consumer are willing to pay more than the market and the trader shares the additional income with farmers, contract supply is difficult to sustain. LIMAS should invest in knowledge management and sharing system that will help to build trust. Further it has to be remembered that Dar es Salaam offers the most challenging competition for products that are widely consumed. Support to farmers should include understanding how the competition is in the fruits and vegetables market. 7.2.2 Fish Industry 7.2.2.1 Sea Fish Despite that Lindi and Mtwara have an extensive sea shore, there is limited capacity to undertake commercial deep sea fishing for lack of technology, i.e. the type of vessels needed to fish in high seas. Consequently the contribution of fish to the local economy and nutrition is decreasing, to make ends meet fishermen often resort to fishing using illegal means especially explosives that destroy coral reeves. In 2009 MACEMP Programme supported some 9 villages with fishing gear and more powerful vessels with 5mt cargo capacity to tap into the growing fish market at Kilwa. Six boats are operating and 2 groups have added more boats from their earnings operations 27. It may be of interest to confirm the findings that fishing groups have managed to run their businesses profitably so as to scale up the kind of support in consideration of the likely growth in demand for fish in the two regions. On the demand side, there is growing preference for fish protein over red meat and this is reflected in the price of fish which is relatively high at around TZS 5,000 per Kg within Mtwara and Lindi Municipals. Fish consumed by upper market consumers is imported frozen fish and sometime is from Lake Victoria. When the LNG plant is under construction there will be more demand for fish which offers a good market opportunity for locally sourced fish. It is recommended that LIMAS prepare an investment opportunity dossier for fishing businesses to be marketed for medium scale investors that target the growing market in Lindi and Mtwara. 7.2.2.2 Mari culture At national level, much of the country relies on fish from Lake Victoria (Tilapia and Nile Perch) and imports of farmed fish from China, based on International Trade Centre Trade Database importation of various fish products was close to 6,000MT in 2013. Lindi in particular introduced mariculture in 2008 during MACEMP Programme. An assessment of water tides, water quality, fingerlings collection and fish holding capacity was done. Tilapia of Chanus chanus type or Mwatiko in Kiswahili has been found to flourish well under controlled ponds. The fish is observed to grow to about 600 – 700grammes in 6 months 28 and a Kilo sells in town at TZS 6,000/=. The recommended number of fish 27 More information is needed to confirm on the groups ability to scale up operation as this may be a strong proof of business viability 28 This figure needs to be confirmed as experience from other fresh water ponds disputes it as being exaggerated. 66 per m3 is 5 – 6, assuming a mortality rate of 20% the population is around 4 – 5 fish per m3, a typical pond will be 400 m3 hence a potential of 1,600 to 2,000 pieces. This will bring revenue of between TZS 8 million assuming low price, low population and low weight gain and 11 million on best scenario. The cost of production can hardly exceed TZS 3million. The Municipal Fisheries office has identified the area stretching from Mbanja to Mkwaya (that includes Nundi and Mingoyo) to be suitable for mariculture. The soils in these areas have high water retention capacity and are currently under salt extraction. Already some investors in are turning into mariculture, the leading investor has converted 13 ponds into fish ponds and there are indications that he is looking for possible Chinese partners to scale up mariculture. This business faces two main constraints, one is limited access to suitable areas as the land is owned by the Ministry of Energy and Minerals, secondly are presence of predator fish in Kiswahili called Mambo, it is difficult to separate at the time of collecting the fingerlings in the ocean. Given the knowledge that NIRAS (the LIMAS implementing company) has in marine and estuarine of Lindi and Mtwara gained during the implementation of MACEMP, mariculture can be a quick win project with promising impact on employment, income and nutrition for the population of Lindi and Mtwara. Table 7.1 : Gross Profitability Estimate for Mari culture Fish density/Fingerlings/cub. metre Mortality rate in % Loss due to predators in % Net fish available for harvesting/cubic metre Average weight in Kgs after 6 - 8 months Average pond size in sq. meters (20m X 20 m) Number of harvestable fish Average price (wholesale) per Kg Kgs harvested Revenue at wholesale Cost of maintaining the pond Possible surplus before tax Margin 20% 20% Worse Scenario 5 1 1 3 0.6 Average Scenario 6 1.2 1.2 3.6 0.7 1,200 5,000 720 3,600,000 2,000,000 1,600,000 44% 1,440 5,000 1,008 5,040,000 2,000,000 3,040,000 60% 400 7.2.3 Livestock Production It has been noted that livestock products (beef, pork, chicken beef, eggs and fish) take significant (more than 70%) value of the consumers budget as against about 15% for green vegetables. Cattle: However, the area surrounding Mtwara has limited space for beef and or dairy cattle ranches. More survey needs to be done to establish performance of cattle in the area. Since much of Mtwara and Lindi have uni-modal rainfall pattern investment in cattle will require large amount of initial capital. It is feasible and less demanding to invest in fattening lots where cattle from other parts of the country may be fattened until they reach the recommended age and quality. LIMAS has funded a feasibility/business plan for an up-country investor to add value through fattening of cattle bought from other parts of the country. 67 Poultry: There is space for Mtwara to have a burgeoning poultry industry, the major constrain however is the diseconomies of scale because it lacks local sources of raw materials animal feed production. The raw materials are bulky and so far there are no established sources that promise economic advantages. Dar es Salaam may continue to be the source of cheaper poultry products because of easy access to grains, reliable water supply, and market options. Development of large scale poultry industry may require a feasibility study for an integrated value chain, integrating production of main raw materials. One option being explored in a study by LIMAS is utilization of soya in place of sardines as source of protein and sunflower seed cake from local oil millers to reduce the cost of raw materials. 7.2.4 Tropical fruits production 7.2.4.1 Fruits Production Lindi and Mtwara can produce a number of tropical fruits designated for the domestic industrial processing, upper market and export, the fruits include mangoes, pineapples, lemons, passions, guava, banana, lemon, tangarines, etc. The Regions can start with pineapple and mangoes as an extension of a programme currently initiated by IFAD funded programme MUVI, (www.muvi.com) that covered those crops in the districts of Mkuranga, Bagamayo in Coast Region that have similar geo-climatic conditions with as much of Lindi and Mtwara. The presence of Association of Mango Growers (AMAGRO) with some experience and networks in the development of the commodity can be a good catalyst to the development of such sectors. AMAGRO has indicated existence of good domestic and export markets for fresh mangoes provided quality is assured. Mohamed Enterprise and Azam who process fruits en masse travel all the way to Mtwara to collect mangoes during flush period. It has been indicated that if the two companies were not there, more than 90% of mangoes are wasted 29. For traditional fruits, the buyers pay TZS 20 – 30 per fruit, while on the other hand, improved varieties in Mkuranga and Rufiji fetch a minimum of TZS 300 at farm gate. Naliendele Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) has already worked with AMAGRO to setup 10 nurseries for mangoes. 7.2.4.2 Fruits Processing As noted above the regional has potential to produce mangoes and pineapples that that can be processed into pulp for export or juice making in the domestic market, according to a Danish organic agriculture expert many parts of the country can develop mango and pineapple orchards for production of organic pulp. Uganda exports significant amount organic mango pulp to EU market 30. Internet search show that mango pulp extraction is a profitable business, the analysis based in India for 2Mt per hour, operating at 16hrs/day, 160 days per annum gives an Internal rate of return of 51%. One potential local investor has a plan to invest in fruit processing plant in Mtwara. He has identified some 26 acres some 20 Kms along Mtwara – Lindi highway, he plans to travel to China to seek information on technology in 2015. 29 Interview at Mpapura Village residents According to discussions that the author had with National Organic Agriculture Movement of Uganda (NOGAMU) 30 68 7.2.4.3 Dried Fruits Some literature indicate that there had been projects/programmes promoting solar dried fruits in Tanzania including; Matunda Mama Tanzania Ltd in Karagwe (Kagera), KNFC in Kilimanjaro, Solar Tunda at Sokoine University under the support of DANIDA, etc. While Tanzania may have a better comparative advantage over Uganda due to higher insolation hours in Tanzania, on average Uganda exported 56.8Mt per annum between 2009 and 2013 worth an annual average of USD 258,000 (a peak was reached in 2011 when USD 593,000 was earned from 144Mt of exports. 7.2.5 Cassava Flour to blend with Wheat for bakeries and Starch Production for Export A large percentage of Tanzania population depend on cassava as the main source of calories, the crop is very common in the Coastal Zone due to its versatility including tolerance to drought conditions, low cost of inputs, potential high yield per unit of land compared to other commodities and storability of dried peeled cassava, many organizations concerned with food security have been promoting Cassava production in Tanzania and recently, value addition. Programmes and funders of cassava initiatives include:• CAVA had worked to link small processor groups with Assam and other large bakeries but low grit volumes compared to minimum requirements, lack of grits in the rain season due to poor sun drying, difficulties in pooling produce from several groups and little business understanding within the groups made the initiative less successful. Cassava flour/grits are used by the bakeries as a substitute for wheat flour, max 10%. In times with high wheat prices the bakeries are asking for cassava and vice versa. • FAO that was active in Mtwara, Lindi and Pwani/Coast Region for two years, 2010 – 2012. • VECO in Pwani/Coast region between 2008 and 2013. • Plan Tanzania in Pwani/Coast, Mwanza and Morogoro is ongoing from 2011 up to 2015. • IFAD under Muunganisho Ujasiriamali Vijijini (MUVI) in Mwanza, Ruvuma and Pwani/Coast between 2010 and 2014, • Concern World Wide in Mtwara, Kigoma and Iringa from 2010 to 2013. An expert at Naliendele Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) contends that looking at the population growth, Tanzania needs to prioritize cassava as a very strategic crop for food security. The crop has a potential to produce up to 20Mt – 25Mt per hectare (about 8 – 10Mt/acre) of fresh cassava. Assuming a weight conversion ratio of 100:30 for wet to dry the yields above translate to 2.4 – 3.6Mt of dry cassava flour per hectare. In West Africa cassava is an important staple food crop, recently Nigeria is devising a law that will require main bakeries to blend imported wheat flour with at least 10 percent of cassava flour. It is worth to mention some developments related to cassava:• Cassava flour has started to regain popularity even in urban areas and particularly in restaurants that serve traditional menu, one development officer working with MUVI in Pwani/Coast confirmed availability of a good market for cassava flour provided the quality is guaranteed. A kilogram of cassava flour retails at TZS 800 at farm gate and retails at TZS 1,500 in supermarkets. Low quality flour at Tandale sells at TZS 700 – 800. 69 • • Scalability of processing technology helps the processing (grating or chipping) to take place even in rural areas as cassava is fresh cassava is Table 7.2: Profitability of a 4Mt/day Starch bulky making transport to distant processing Plant point less attractive. Percent The Government is working in partnership Net estimated annual profits with development partners to support private Profits per invested capital 14.8 millers to improve the value of flour through Profits per operating cost 19.2 fortification with Vitamin A and other Profits per working capital 76.8 important elements such as zinc, folic acid, Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep /x5032e/ iron, etc. Promotion of cassava flour in the x5032E05.htm domestic market can help improve nutritional status, Food fortification is coordinated by Hellen Keller International. Sample analysis at FAO website shows that a cassava starch processing plant that produces 4mt/day will require 31,300Mt of fresh cassava that can be produced in 3,100acres at a yield of 10Mt per acre. Export potential is another opportunity, consultations at the Port of Mtwara show that the region had in the early to mid 1990s exported dry cassava to India, Japan and Iran, the study failed to conclude why the business stopped but the source of information suggests that it was changes in global market. The expansion of Mtwara port will lower sea freight, it can be shipped as a returncargo to ships that will be delivering cargo for the population in gas and spillover industries. The only challenges that need to be addressed are mainly getting the technologies for drying and storing the crop before shipment and getting commercial volumes. 7.2.6 Value Addition to Sesame for Export Market Lindi and Mtwara are famous for production of sesame in Tanzania, NDC plans to allocate land for a large sesame farm in Lindi. The market for sesame has been attractive in both domestic and export markets. Centre for Promotion of Imports from Developing Countries (CBI) at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Government of the Netherlands, show that sesame has recently gained high popularity in EU. And between 2002 and 2007 demand in Europe increased by 27%, the increase slowed between 2007 and 2012 EU Imports some sesame from East Africa mainly Sudan and Ethiopia that produce sweet sesame suitable for making halva and tahini. At present the bulk of sesame from Tanzania goes to India, which may be re-exported to European Union (EU). Import into EU market in 2012 was Euro 136 million from 106,225mt. Price for hulled sesame increased to Euro 2,000 – 2,800/mt. However, price appreciated over this period and by 2012 it was almost 3times higher compared to 2002. In response to improving markets West African countries have increased their share in the EU Market. In order to successfully access the European market it may be necessary to review the varieties that command better price and good agriculture practices. Much of the sesame produced in Tanzania is non-white while more profitable European market is for white confectionary varieties. Another important aspect may be the efficiency of supply chain as sesame is difficult to store over a longer period due to pests which can only become worse after hulling. 70 7.2.7 Value Addition to Pulses for Export Market Lindi and Mtwara regions are, and have the potential to increase production of pulses for export markets. Data from RAS shows that in 2013 Lindi produced more than 75,000Mt of pulses. According to a study by LIMAS (2012) 31 about 90% of pulses grown are marketed hence the amount pulses marketed will be around 65,000Mt in the region. At present the pulses are marketed and exported mainly to India in raw form. Mohamed Enterprise Limited has established a plant in Dar es Salaam with a 32Mt per for cleaning, splitting and de-husking pulses. Assuming a 300 working day-year, the plant can just process 9,000Mt. A similar plant in Mtwara/Lindi will hardly absorb 12% of the production reported in the region. The advantages for such a plant in Mtwara are many fold:• • Sources of raw materials will be within the corridor. Presence of programmes like Agha Khan, LIMAS and Africare that can participate in supporting initial technical support at farm level. • Reliable energy supply from both electricity and where necessary natural gas. • Land/plot for industrial activities are readily available. The technology for value addition (daal production) is readily available. ______ 31 Structured Trade And Consultancy Limited/LIMAS. 2012. Assessment Of Domestic Value Chains For Pulses 71 REFERENCES Giacomo Luciani. Gulf Research Centre 2010 (In Integrating upstream and downstream of oil and gas. Gulf Research Centre Foundation. Geneva Kilcher Consultancy Limited. July 2012. Feasibility study for a pilot rural commodity assembly market in Mtwara and Lindi regions. Lindi RAS,2014. Investment Opportunities Existing in Lindi Region LUKOIL, Global Trends in Oil and Gas Markets to 2025 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 2011. The Future of Natural Gas. Ministry of Energy and Minerals. 2014. Local Content Policy of Tanzania for Oil and Gas Industry 2014 Budget Speech. Ministry of Energy and Minerals. 2014/15 Budget Speech. MRA- Management Associates. 2013. Draft Business Plan for the Establishment of a Green Grocery Store in Mtwara Structured Trade And Consultancy Limited/LIMAS. 2012. Assessment Of Domestic Value Chains For Pulses USAID/Chemonics International Inc. Staple Foods Value Chain Analysis Country Report TANZANIA6/1/2010 Wise, Holly and Sokol Shytlla. 2007. The Role of the Extractive Sector in Expanding Economic Opportunity. Harvard University. 72 ANNEX I: OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION BLOCKS AND RESPECTIVE COMPANIES 73 ANNEX II : OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION COMPANIES OPERATING IN TANZANIA OPERATOR CONTACT PERSON AREA/BLOCK Pan Energy David K. Roberts: Oyster Plaza Building, 5th Floor Ohio Street, P. O. Box 80139 . 99999Dar es Salaam Tel. + 255 (0) 22 2138 737, Fax: + 255 (0) 22 2138 938 Email: [email protected] Songo Songo Development Mr. Christopher Ford The Managing Director 4th Floor, Plot No. 179/180 Msasani Bay, Msasani Village Block "B" Kinondoni District. P.O.Box 6342, Dar es Salaam Tel: +255222124181, Fax: +255222124186 Christophe Maitre Country Manager Maurel et Prom (T) Ltd. 1124 Chole Road, Msasani peninsular, Dar es Salaam Tel: +255 22 260 214, +255 782 444 352 Email: [email protected] Thierry Murcia: Country Manager Kenyatta Drive Plot 5.15, Oysterbay P.O. Box 179, Dar es Salaam Tel. +255 784 600674, Fax: +255 22 266 7284 Email: [email protected] Mr Imtaz Kassam Petrodel Resources Ltd C/o MM Industries, ITV Road, P.O. Box 3030. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Email: [email protected] Jeremy Martin Country Manager East Africa Exploration (Kenya Ltd) P.O.Box 38925-00623. Nairobi, Kenya Mob: +254 (0) 72 9943249 Email: [email protected] Mr. Derek Hudson President and Asset General Manager � BG East Africa BG International, Tanzania Branch Plot 369, 1st Floor Kilwa House . Toure Drive, Oysterbay P. O. Box 105833. Dar es salaam E-mail:[email protected] Mr. Bjorn Albert Holbaek Rasmussen Country Manager Statoil Tanzania As 79 Haile Sellasie Rd . Oysterbay, P.O.Box 713. Dar es Salaam, Tel: +255 767 303677 Email: [email protected] Songo Songo Gas Pipeline Manoel Murilo Silva Managing Director Petrobras Tanzania Ltd Plot 1403/1A Msasani Peninsula P.O. Box 31391 Dar Es Salaam - Tanzania Tel: +255 22 2165604. Mob: +255 (0)786188732 Email: [email protected] DeepSea Block-6 DeepSea Block-8 African Songas Limited Maurel & Prom Ndovu/Aminex Petrodel Afren Tanzania BG International Statoil Mobile /Exxon Petrobras Gas Mnazi Bay Gas Development Bigwa - Mafia Channel Nyuni - East Songo Songo Ruvuma Latham - Kimbiji Tanga DeepSea Block - 1 DeepSea Block - 3 Deep Sea Block - 4 Deep Sea Block-2 74 Dominion Ophir East Africa Ventures Limited Beach Petroleum Dodsal Heritage Rukwa (TZ) Ltd Swala Energy Motherland Homes Open Acreage Doug Rycroft General Manager Dominion Oil & Gas Limited, Hamza Aziz Road, Plot 1676, P.O. Box 23184, Dar es Salaam. Fax : +255 22 260 2532 Email : [email protected] Doug Rycroft Ophir East Africa Ventures Limited Hamza Aziz Road, Plot 1676, P.O.Box 23184. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Tel +255 22 221 5526 Email: [email protected] Marcus Mng'ong'o Beach Petroleum (Tanzania) Ltd First Floor. Norconsult Building. Plot No. 34A, Winding Avenue/Zambia Road. Oysterbay P.O. Box 33353. Dar es salaam Tel/Fax: +255222667770 Website: beachpetroleum.com.au DeepSea Block-7 Samir Kilachand Dodsal Hydrocarbons & Power Ltd, 9th Floor, Extelecoms House, Samora Avenue, P.O. Box 12049, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania +97143431515 Email: [email protected] James Baban VP and Managing Director Heritage Rukwa Tanzania Limited 4th Floor Amverton Towers. 1127 Chole Rd. Masaki P.O.BOX 38022. Dar es salaam. Tanzania Tell: +255-22-266 8850. Fax: +255-22-266 8313 Country Director Swala Oil and Gas (Tanzania) Limited Hillbrook Cottage, Kwale Road. Oysterbay P.O.Box 8258. Dar-es-Salaam Tanzania The Managing Director Motherland Industries Ltd B-214 Morya House. Plot No. B-66/67, New Link Road Andheri (West). Mumbai 400053. INDIA E mail: [email protected] [email protected] Ruvu Managing Director Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation Plot No. 2390/12 &2392/12 Azikiwe/ Jamhuri Street P.O.Box 2774. Da-es-Salaam. Tanzania Tel:+255-22-2200103/4 Email: [email protected] Kisangire - Lukurilo Pande East L. Tanganyika South Lake Rukwa Basin Kyela Basin Kilosa-Kilombero Basin Pangani Basin Malagarasi Basin Mandawa Selous West Songo Songo 75 ANNEX III PROJECTED POPULATION, NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME CATEGORY Population Projection for Lindi and Mtwara Municipalities Percent Growth Mtwara Lindi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4.1% 4.10% 4.20% 4.20% 4.50% 4.50% 4.60% 4.70% 4.80% 5.00% 5.00% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 108,299 112,739 117,474 122,408 127,917 33,673 139,822 146,393 153,420 161,091 169,146 176,757 184,712 193,024 78,841 81,600 84,456 87,412 90,472 93,638 96,916 100,308 103,819 109,009 114,460 120,183 126,192 132,502 Estimated number of Households by income category in Mtwara Municipal 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Low Income 70% 75,809 78,917 Middle Income High Income 20% 21,660 22,548 23,495 85,686 24,482 25,583 93,571 26,735 97,875 27,964 102,475 29,279 107,394 30,684 112,764 32,218 118,402 33,829 123,730 35,351 129,298 36,942 135,116 38,605 10% 10,830 11,274 11,747 12,241 12,792 1,367 13,982 14,639 15,342 16,109 16,915 17,676 18,471 19,302 108,299 112,739 117,474 122,408 127,917 133,673 139,822 146,393 153,420 161,091 169,146 176,757 184,712 193,024 Total 82,232 89,542 Estimated number of Households by income category in Lindi Municipal 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Low Income 70% 55,189 57,120 59,120 61,189 63,330 65,547 67,841 70,215 72,673 76,307 80,122 84,128 88,334 92,751 Middle Income High Income 22% 17,345 17,952 18,580 19,231 19,904 20,600 21,321 22,068 22,840 23,982 25,181 26,440 27,762 29,150 8% 6,307 6,528 6,757 6,993 7,238 7,491 7,753 8,025 8,305 8,721 9,157 9,615 10,095 10,600 78,841 81,600 84,456 87,412 90,472 93,638 96,916 100,308 103,819 109,009 114,460 120,183 126,192 132,502 Total 76 ANNEX IV : PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT RESULTANT OF THE INVESTMENT IN GAS INDUSTRY Investment in mill USD Employment Dangote Cement Jiang Billing Limited, TCD Three Ltd and Sugar Crushing TPA NDC TCIMRL Madimba Gas Processing Songosongo Gas Processing Fertilizer plant Ammonia plant Electric Power Plant Methanol plant LNG Schlumberger Workshop Sugar plant University (SAUTI) Total Cement Sugar Port expansion Sesame Iron and Coal Gas Gas Urea Ammonia 400MW 5000Mt/day LNG Spares Sugar Education Cumulative 1,700 Short Term Direct Medium Term Indirect Direct 600 3,000 100 300 60 60 200 200 1,700 1,600 1,700 Indirect Indirect 2,000 60 1,700 60 60 400 400 300 1,000 200 200 1,600 1,500 1,500 3,000 50 1,200 500 13,050 500 870 60 1,700 60 60 400 400 1,700 400 1,000 100 500 833 8,583 32,400 40,983 200 1,120 50 3,750 1,120 4,870 19,350 100 Direct 500 400 10000 100 500 300 14,480 10,000 Long term 2,000 2,000 300 1,000 200 200 1,600 1,500 500 1,500 20000 200 1,200 500 32,700 77 ANNEX IV: WEEKLY FOOD PURCHASES BY LOCAL CONSUMERS IN MTWARA IN TZS/WEEK Low Income Households Breakfast Quantity per Week Costs per Week Bread Lunch Quantity per Week Costs per Week Dinner Quantity per Week Costs per Week 500Gms pieces 19 Buns/bagia/half cake, etc Pcs 40 Chapatis Pcs 68 15,600 15,600 Vitumbuas Pcs 66 7,200 7,200 Cassava Kgs 27 4,500 4,500 Potatoes (Sweet) Kgs Potatoes (Round/Irish) kgs Banana (green) Kgs Pumpkin Kgs Rice Kiporo Kgs Litres 3.5 7,000 Kgs of flour 6 1,500 Pcs Kgs Chicken soup Kgs Vegetable(green) soup Kgs Vegetable soup Kgs Oats/flakes Kgs Maize/rice/sorghum uji Juice Litres Yorghut Litres 15 1 4,500 Beef soup 19,200 5,600 3 Boiled/fried eggs Fresh milk 19,200 Total per week 1,500 5,600 1,500 3,000 4,500 4,800 11,800 1,500 Beans Kgs 2.5 3,500 2.25 Njugu Kgs 0 Pegion peas Kgs 0 3,500 78 Breakfast Quantity per Week Costs per Week Lunch Quantity per Week Costs per Week Dinner Quantity per Week Costs per Week Total per week Ugali Pcs 12.5 19,500 14 19,500 Fish Kgs 25.5 35,100 6 35,100 Beef Kgs 3,500 3 5 5,000 0.5 4.5 5,400 17.5 Chicken Pcs Dagaa Kgs Rice Pcs Orange/tangarine Pcs 0 Banana, ripe Pcs 12 Mango Pcs Water melon Pcs Cucumber Pcs Passion Pcs Avocado Pcs Pawpaw Pcs 6 Stafeli Pcs 0 Lemon Pcs 0 Apples Pcs 0 Lime Pcs 0 Pears Pcs 0 Peas, hard/soft Pcs 0 Pineapples Pcs 0 Plum, yellow Pcs 0 7,000 1 3.5 4,900 1,200 Plum, red 4,000 5,000 10,500 20,800 5,200 0 Tambi Chips yai 3,500 0.5 Kgs 1,200 0 1,200 3 Grapes Strawbery Pcs Cheese 79 Breakfast Quantity per Week Costs per Week Lunch Quantity per Week Costs per Week Dinner Quantity per Week Costs per Week Total per week Vegetable - tomato Soseji Mchicha (Amaranthus) 28 17,800 6 17,800 Cabbage, white Cabbage, red Cabbage, Chinese Capsicum green Lettuce Carrots 3 1,500 1,500 Peas, green fresh Peas, green frozen Chilli, green & yellow Cauliflower Brocoli Pcs Egg Plant Pcs 6 3,000 Ginger Pcs 1 100 100 Garlic Kgs 3 900 900 3,000 Okra Onion, red, peeled 35.5 4,000 4,000 28 9,800 0 9,800 5 6,600 4 6,600 Spinach, all type Swiss Chard Tangarines Tomato, m-m African eggplant (n/chungu) Bamia 9 4,100 5 4,100 Matembele 18 8,300 6 8,300 Green Peper 4.5 3 3,300 Sprin Onion 3,300 0 80 Breakfast Quantity per Week Costs per Week Lunch Quantity per Week Costs per Week Kisamvu 2 Dinner Quantity per Week Costs per Week Total per week 1,000 1,000 Majani ya Kunde Gees Butter Cereal Conflex Vitabix Grand Total 230,600 Middle Income Households Unit Bread Breakfast Costs per Week Quantity per Week Lunch Costs per Week Quantity per Week Dinner Costs per Week Total per week 22 32,400 32,400 Buns/bagia/half cake, etc Pcs 154 15,400 15,400 Chapatis Pcs 67 16,750 16,750 Vitumbuas Pcs 21 2,100 2,100 Cassava 500Gmspcs Quantity per Week Bundle Kgs 11 5,400 5,400 Potatoes (Sweet) Kgs - - - Potatoes (Round/Irish) kgs - - - - 22 20,000 20,000 Banana (green) Kgs - - - - - - - Pumpkin Kgs - - - - - - - Rice Kiporo Kgs 13 19,200 - - - - 19,200 Boiled/fried eggs Pcs 47 22,100 - - - - 22,100 Beef soup Kgs - - - - - - - Chicken soup Kgs - - - - - - - Vegetable(green) soup Kgs - - - - - - - 81 Vegetable soup Kgs - - - - - - - Oats/flakes Kgs - - - - - - - Litres 7 10,500 - - - - 10,500 Fresh milk Maize/rice/sorghum uji Kgs of flour - - - - - - - Juice Litres - - - - 16 8,000 8,000 Yorghut Litres - - - - - - - Kgs - - 5 9,000 2 2,000 11,000 Beans Njugu - - - - - - - Pegion peas Kgs - - - - - - - Ugali Pcs - - 19 16,900 5 6,000 22,900 Fish Kgs - - 46 54,000 - - 54,000 Beef - - 4 30,000 - - 30,000 Chicken - - 1 14,000 - - 14,000 - - - - - - - Dagaa Kgs Rice - - 5 6,000 29 29,550 35,550 Orange/tangarine Pcs - - - - 63 - - Banana, ripe Pcs - - - - 3 1,200 1,200 Mango Pcs - - - - - - - Water melon Pcs - - - - - - - Cucumber Pcs - - - - - - - Passion Pcs - - - - - - - Avocado Pcs - - - - - - - Pawpaw Pcs - - - - - - - Stafeli Pcs - - - - - - - Lemon Pcs - - - - - - - Apples Pcs - - - - - - - Lime Pcs - - - - - - - Pears Pcs - - - - - - - Peas, hard/soft Pcs - - - - - - - Pineapples Pcs - - - - - - - 82 Plum, yellow Pcs - - - - - - - Plum, red Pcs - - - - - - - Tambi - - - - - - - Chips yai - - - - - - - Grapes - - - - - - - Strawbery - - - - - - - Cheese - - - - - - - Vegetable - tomato - - - - - - - Soseji - - - - - - - Mchicha (Amaranthus) - - 29 5,600 - - 5,600 Cabbage, white - - 2 4,000 - - 4,000 Cabbage, red - - - - - - - Cabbage, Chinese - - 9 900 - - 900 Capsicum green - - - - - - - Lettuce - - - - - - - Carrots - - - - - - - Peas, green fresh - - - - - - - Peas, green frozen - - - - - - - Chilli, green & yellow - - - - - - - Cauliflower - - - - - - - Brocoli - - - - - - - Egg Plant - - 6 1,200 - - 1,200 Ginger - - - - - - - Garlic - - - - - - - Okra - - - - - - - Onion, red, peeled 7 2,000 16 3,900 - 1,500 7,400 Spinach, all type - - 9 6,900 - - 6,900 Swiss Chard - - - - - - - Tangarines - - - - - - - Tomato, m-m 7 3,500 28 14,000 - 4,000 21,500 83 African eggplant (n/chungu) - - - - - - - Bamia - - 6 3,600 - - 3,600 Matembele - - 20 9,500 - - 9,500 Green Peper - - 14 2,800 - - 2,800 Sprin Onion - - - - - - - Kisamvu - - 4 1,000 - - 1,000 Majani ya Kunde - - 2 2,000 - - 2,000 Gees - - - - - - - Butteo - - - - - - - Cereal - - - - - - - Conflex - - - - - - - Vitabix - - - - - - - Grand Total 386,900 High Income Breakfast Quantity per Costs per Week Week Lunch Quantity per Costs per Week Week Quantity per Week Dinner Costs per Week Total Bread 2 500Gms pieces 43 48,250 - - - - 48,250 Buns/bagia/half cake, etc Pcs 52 14,300 - - - - 14,300 Chapatis Pcs 60 - - - - 12,600 Vitumbuas Pcs 200 2,000 - - - - 2,000 Cassava Bundle Kgs 50 13,200 - - - - 13,200 Potatoes (Sweet) fungu Kgs 50 13,600 - - - - 13,600 Potatoes (Round/Irish) kgs - - - 1 2 Banana (green) Kgs - - - - - Pumpkin Kgs - - - 1 1 12,600 2,800 2,801 - - 300 301 84 Breakfast Quantity per Costs per Week Week Rice Kiporo Kgs - Boiled/fried eggs Pcs 23 Beef soup Kgs - - Chicken soup Kgs - Vegetable(green) soup Kgs Vegetable soup Oats/flakes - Lunch Quantity per Costs per Week Week Quantity per Week Dinner Costs per Week - 7 7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Kgs - - - - - - - Kgs - - - - - - - Fresh milk Litres 24 26,000 - - - - Maize/rice/sorghum uji Kgs of flour 16 5,875 - - - Juice 10 Litres - - - 20 28 Yorghut Litres - - - - - Beans 1/4 Kgs 2 2,800 - Njugu 1 Kgs 2 3,600 - - - - 3,600 Pegion peas Fungu 2 2,600 - - - - 2,600 Ugali 2 kgs - - - 11 8 17,600 17,611 Fish 2kg - - - 14 17 137,000 137,014 Beef Pcs 3 - 9 12 100,700 110,709 Chicken 1kg - - - 5 7 77,000 77,005 Dagaa pcs - - - 3 2 7,000 7,003 Rice 1.5 Kgs - - - - - - - Orange/tangarine Pcs - - - - - - - Banana, ripe Pcs - - - - - - - Mango Pcs - - - - - - - Water melon Pcs - - - - - - - Cucumber Pcs - - - - - - - Passion Pcs - - - - - - - Avocado Pcs - - - - - - - 2,500 10,000 12 9,100 Total 42,700 19,750 9,107 2,500 26,000 5,875 42,720 22,550 85 Breakfast Quantity per Costs per Week Week Lunch Quantity per Costs per Week Week Quantity per Week Dinner Costs per Week Total Pawpaw Pcs - - - - - - - Stafeli Pcs - - - - - - - Lemon Pcs - - - - - - - Apples Pcs - - - - - - - Lime Pcs - - - - - - - Pears Pcs - - - - - - - Peas, hard/soft Pcs - - - - - - - Pineapples Pcs - - - - - - - Plum, yellow Pcs - - - - - - - Plum, red Pcs - - - - - - - Tambi 1 pkt 9 - - - - Chips yai 6pcs - - - - - - - Grapes - - - - - - - Strawbery - - - - - - - Cheese 4 5,000 - - - - 5,000 Vegetable - tomato 14 28,000 - - - - 28,000 Soseji - - - - - Mchicha (Amaranthus) - - - 10 19 20,000 20,010 Cabbage, white - - - 17 17 39,500 39,517 Cabbage, red - - - - - - - Cabbage, Chinese - - - - - - - Capsicum green - - - - - - - Lettuce - - - 1 5 37,500 37,501 Carrots - - - 14 20 84,000 84,014 Peas, green fresh - - - 3 9 63,000 63,003 Peas, green frozen - - - - - Chilli, green & yellow - - - 8 8 9,500 - 7,100 9,500 - 7,108 86 Breakfast Quantity per Costs per Week Week Lunch Quantity per Costs per Week Week Dinner Costs per Week Total 5 11,000 11,005 Quantity per Week Cauliflower - - - 5 Brocoli - - - 4 4 10,000 10,004 Egg Plant - - - 7 13 11,000 11,007 Ginger - - - 5 10 19,500 19,505 Garlic - - - 5 6 20,750 20,755 Okra - - - 5 7 17,000 17,005 Onion, red, peeled - - - 21 21 18,300 18,321 Spinach, all type - - - 16 14,012 10,000 10,016 Swiss Chard - - - - - Tangarines - - - 1 5 30,000 30,001 Tomato, m-m - - - 19 19 27,500 27,519 African eggplant (n/chungu) - - - 3 3 4,000 4,003 Bamia - - - 2 4 6,000 6,002 Matembele - - - 3 7 7,000 7,003 Green Peper - - - 7 7 5,250 5,257 Sprin Onion - - - 9 15 17,750 17,759 Kisamvu - - - - - - - Majani ya Kunde - - - - - - - Gees - - - - - - - Butteo - - - - - - - Cereal - - - - - - - - - Conflex 12,000 12,000 - - - - 12,000 Vitabix 12,000 12,000 - - - - 12,000 ____ Grand Total 1,104,161 87
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