1. Healthcare

Market situation
Cereals
AGRI C 4
Committee for the Common Organisation
of Agricultural Markets
29 January 2015
copyright_purestock_thinkstockphotos_72969376_low
Exchange Rates
2
Euro – Dollar exchange rate
1.40
01/07/2014
1.3688
1.35
1.30
1.25
- 17.40%
1.20
1.15
Spot, ECB reference
1.10
01/01/2014
1.1306
01/04/2014
01/07/2014
01/10/2014
01/01/2015
3
Euro and Dollar – Russian Rouble exchange rate
95
16/12/2014
85.71
Source: Thomson Reuters
85
76.96
75
67.61
65
55
RUB/EUR
45
39.76
35
RUB/USD
30.23
25
01/01/2013
01/04/2013
01/07/2013
01/10/2013
01/01/2014
01/04/2014
01/07/2014
01/10/2014
01/01/2015
4
Euro and Dollar - Ukraine Hryvnia exchange rate
21
16/12/2014
19.54
Source: Thomson Reuters
19
17.77
17
UAH/EUR
15.90
15
13
11
10.67
UAH/USD
9
8.04
7
01/01/2013
01/04/2013
01/07/2013
01/10/2013
01/01/2014
01/04/2014
01/07/2014
01/10/2014
01/01/2015
5
Crude oil price ($/barrel)
160
27/01/2015: 50
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE ($ PER BARREL), 1 MONTH FORWARD (FOB): BRENT BLEND (NORTH SEA) - UK
6
Baltic Dry Index
12000
Baltic Dry Index
27/01/2015: 688
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
7
Cereals Forecasts
8
World cereals: IGC
900
Source: IGC January report
2000
World Ending Stocks
of which 8 major exporters
World Production
World Consumption
1973 (1965)
700
Mio t
1851
1802
1818
1850
1800
1785
500
400
373
1769
1800
1793
1750
1750
404
402
366
362
300
432 (429)
1700
335
1650
200
100
1950
1900
1933
1856
1731
2050
2000
800
600
2002 (1990)
Mio t
1000
1600
159
172
140
125
96
118
148 (147)
0
1550
1500
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013(est.) 2014(fcst.)
9
World wheat: IGC
500
Source: IGC January report
730
717 (717)
World Ending Stocks
of which 8 major exporters
World Production
World Consumption
713
710
698
708 (712)
685
679
677
690
695
670
657
300
Mio t
695
645
652
653
199
193
650
655
200
192
172
187
196 (193)
Mio t
400
630
169
610
100
69
77
74
68
48
52
2012
2013(est.)
63 (59)
0
590
570
2008
2009
2010
2011
2014(fcst.)
10
IGC: Wheat production forecast
All wheat
Source: IGC January report
180.0
2011
2012
2013(est.)
2014(fcst.)
155
160.0
140.0
Mio t
120.0
100.0
80.0
60
60.0
55
40.0
29
24
23
20.0
13
13
0.0
EU
Russia
USA
Canada
Ukraine
Australia
Kazakhstan
Argentina
11
World wheat: USDA
500
730
715
710
697
682
686
697
300
713 (713)
680
690
704
670
Mio t
655
641
650
652
203
199
650
658
199
174
167
186
196 (195)
Mio t
400
200
723 (722)
Source: USDA January report
World Ending Stocks
of which 8 major exporters
World Production
World Consumption
630
610
100
78
60
75
70
51
56
67 (66)
0
590
570
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 est.
2014 proj.
12
USDA: Wheat production forecast
All wheat
Source: USDA January report
180
2010
156
160
2011
2012
2013 est.
2014 proj.
140
Mio t
120
100
80
59
60
55
40
29
25
24
20
13
12
0
EU
Russia
USA
Canada
Ukraine
Australia
Kazakhstan
Argentina
13
World maize: IGC
350
300
Source: IGC January report
World Ending Stocks
of which US
World Production
World Consumption
991
992 (982)
1000
973 (963)
Mio t
800
784
150
877
865
843
821
200
863
150
947
830
900
194 (195)
820
800
175
148
131
131
Mio t
250
876
700
132
100
600
50
43
49 (52)
43
29
25
21
2010
2011
2012
0
2008
2009
31
500
2013(est.)
2014(fcst.)
14
IGC: maize production forecast
Maize
Source: IGC January report
400
361
2011
2012
2013(est.)
2014(fcst.)
350
300
Mio t
250
200
150
100
80
75
50
33
29
0
USA
Brazil
EU
Argentine
Ukraine
15
World maize: USDA
1050
World Ending Stocks
of which US
World Production
World Consumption
988
Source: USDA January report
300
883
823
799
200
1000
950
900
850
864
832
800
819
189 (192)
782
149
971 (972)
868
850
Mio t
953
887
988 (992)
172
144
128
133
Mio t
400
750
138
700
100
650
43
48 (51)
43
29
25
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
21
2012
600
31
550
2013 est.
2014 proj.
16
USDA: maize production forecast
Maize
Source: USDA January report
400
361
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 est.
2014 proj.
350
300
Mio t
250
200
150
100
75
74
50
27
22
0
USA
Brazil
EU
Ukraine
Argentine
17
World barley: IGC
80
Source: IGC January report
155
World Ending Stocks
World Production
EU ending stocks
World Consumption
150
150
145
70
146
139 (138)
145
60
136
135
133
Mio t
140
141
137 (137)
50
134
40
30
34
130
129
40
122
27
20
120
26
26
27 (27)
22
18
10
160
Mio t
90
13
110
10
8
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
5
6
8 (8)
2012
2013(est.)
2014(fcst.)
100
18
World durum wheat: IGC
10
Source: IGC January report
3 Major exporters Stocks
World Production
Canada
World Consumption
42
9
40
41
38
38
7
38
37
6
35
Mio t
38
38
5
37
4.9
36
37
36 (36)
36
35
34
4
Mio t
8
39
3.6
3
3.1
2.7
2
2.9
32
1.7 (1.3)
30
2.5
2.1
1.9
33 (32)
1.6
1
1.5
1.8
1.2
1 (0.7)
0
28
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013(est.)
2014(fcst.)
19
Cereals Prices
20
Market News (29-01-2015)
 - USA: 14/15 exports at 19.4 Mt wheat (-23% y/y),
30.3 Mt maize (+2%) and 44.3 Mt soybeans (+5%)
 - EGYPT: max. humidity level could be set again at
13.5% for imported wheat : yet to be confirmed
 - Pakistan: wheat exp subsidy for 1.2 Mt (45-55 $/t)
 - UKR: 14/15 exp. targets agreed
 12.8 Mt wheat, 4.1 Mt barley and 20.8 Mt maize
 - RUS: export tax on wheat (1/02-30/06 2015)
 Exp. tax = 15% of customs price plus 7.5 € but min. 35 €
 Exp. Target = 18.5 Mt (roughly 1 Mt left)
21
World cereal prices ($/t)
480
430
380
330
280
Wheat - Black Sea Milling
$ 253
Wheat - US SRW Gulf
$ 240
230
180
Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen
$ 226
Maize - US 3YC Gulf
$ 181
Maize - FR Bordeaux
$ 170
130
22
World cereal prices ($/t)
300
280
260
Wheat - Black Sea Milling
$ 253
240
220
200
180
160
Wheat - US SRW Gulf
$ 240
Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen
$ 226
Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed
$ 204
Maize - US 3YC Gulf
$ 181
Maize - FR Bordeaux
$ 170
23
World wheat export prices (fob, US$ per tonne)
500
450
quotation in € or $ / tonne
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
Wheat - Canada CWRS St Lawrence - $ 282
Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 240
Wheat - Argentina Trigo Up River - $ 250
Wheat - Black Sea Feed - $ 225 (20/1/2015)
Wheat - US HRW Gulf - $ 248
Wheat - Australia ASW Eastern States - $ 255
Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 253
24
US vs. EU wheat export prices
450
quotation in € or $ / tonne
400
350
300
250
US SRW Gulf - $ 240
US SRW Gulf - € 211
200
FR Cl.1 Rouen - € 198
UK Feed East Coast - € 179
150
100
25
US CME SRW wheat futures
350
120
340
JUL 2015 (R)
250
300
MAR 2016 (R)
280
200
260
220
100
200
50
180
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
0
07/12
160
01/13
07/13
01/14
07/14
01/15
100
210
80
205
204
$/t
240
150
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)
320
MAR 2015 (R)
$/t
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)
Daily volume
300
215
Last 14 days
60
200
40
195
194
20
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
0
14/01/15
18/01/15
22/01/15
191
190
26/01/15
26
US KCBT HRW wheat futures
30
340
MAR 2015 (R)
JUL 2015 (R)
60
320
MAR 2016 (R)
300
280
260
20
240
220
230
Last 14 days
25
225
20
220
219
15
215
10
210
5
206
205
202
Kansas (KCBT) HRW Futures
0
07/13
200
01/14
07/14
01/15
$/t
40
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)
360
Daily Volume
$/t
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)
80
0
14/01/15
200
18/01/15
22/01/15
26/01/15
27
EU Milling Wheat Futures
260
Daily Volume
MAR 2015 (R)
SEP 2015 (R)
MAR 2016 (R)
200
Last 14 days
240
80
220
200
40
180
20
160
40
35
197
30
25
€/t
60
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)
100
45
€/t
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)
120
194
20
193
15
192
191
10
191
5
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF Paris) milling w heat futures
0
05/12
140
11/12
05/13
11/13
05/14
11/14
0
14/01/15
188
20/01/15
26/01/15
28
CME maize futures
250
225
480
320
175
160
150
Chicago (CME) Maize futures
0
11/12
125
05/13
11/13
05/14
11/14
170
Last 14 days
450
165
165
400
350
300
160
$/t
200
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tonnes)
640
500
275
Daily volume
MAR 2015 (R)
JUL 2015 (R)
MAR 2016 (R)
$/t
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tonnes)
800
250
156
155
200
150
150
150
100
50
Chicago (CME) Maize futures
0
14/01/15
18/01/15
22/01/15
145
26/01/15
29
EU maize futures
260
240
220
6
4
180
160
2
140
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures
120
06/13
09/13
12/13
03/14
06/14
09/14
12/14
4
176
175
170
3
165
165
€/t
200
0
03/13
180
Last 14 days
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)
8
5
280
Daily Volume
MAR 2015 (R)
AUG 2015 (R)
MAR 2016 (R)
€/t
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)
10
2
160
1
155
155
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures
0
14/01/15
20/01/15
26/01/15
150
30
Cereals Trade
31
Selected cereals trade for the past 5 weeks
Country
Crop
Quantity
(in tonnes)
Price (in
$/t)
Egypt
wheat
300,000
258-263 fob
Egypt
wheat
180,000
249-250 fob
Egypt
wheat
240,000
241-243 fob
France
Feb
Algeria
wheat
900,000
277-280 c&f
EU (possibly)
Mar/Apr
Algeria
wheat
350,000
256 c&f
FR and GER
May
-
Origin(s)
Delivery
date
- FRA: 240,000
- RUS: 60,000
Jan
-
France
Feb
32
EU wheat and flour export commitments 2014/15
WHEAT AND FLOUR - EXPORTS COMMITMENTS
1 200
800
30
25
Weekly volume
(current MY)
20
2014/15- 17.4 mio t.
Trimmed average
5MY
600
15
400
10
200
5
0
0
Total for MY - mio tonnes
Weekly volume - ' 000 tonnes
1 000
2013/2014
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Week
33
EU wheat import commitments 2014/15
WHEAT - IMPORT COMMITMENTS
350
4
300
250
3
200
2014/15 -1.9 mio t.
2
150
2013/2014
100
Total for MY - mio tonnes
Weekly volume - ' 000 tonnes
Trimmed avg 5MY
Weekly volume
(current MY)
1
50
0
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Week
34
EU barley export commitments 2014/15
BARLEY - EXPORTS COMMITMENTS
350
300
7
Weekly volume
(current MY)
6
2013/2014
250
200
5
4
150
3
Trimmed average
5MY
100
2
50
1
0
0
Total for MY - mio tonnes
Weekly volume - ' 000 tonnes
2014/15 - 5.1 mio t.
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Week
35
EU Maize import commitments 2014/15
MAIZE - IMPORT COMMITMENTS
1 000
16
2013/2014
900
700
Weekly volume
(current MY)
12
10
600
500
8
2014/15 - 5.2 mio t.
400
Trimmed avg 5MY
300
6
Total for MY - mio tonnes
Weekly volume - ' 000 tonnes
800
14
4
200
2
100
0
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Week
36
EU Commitments 2014/2015 (31 weeks)
● Imports: 9 mio t (9.3 mio t last year; 10.5 mio t two years ago)
 1.9 mio t soft wheat
 1.7 mio t durum wheat
 5.2 mio t maize
 58 000 t barley
● Exports: 24.9 mio t (25.5 mio t last year; 16.5 mio t two years ago)
 17.4 mio t soft wheat
 5.1 mio t barley
 531 000 t durum wheat
 1.7 mio t maize
● So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 15.9 mio t,
against 16.2 mio t last year and 6 mio t two years ago.
37
Thank you for your attention!
Balance sheet updates & market presentation
available:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balancesheets/index_en.htm
copyright_borojoint_thinkstockphotos_135155824_low