1. Healthcare

February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Agriculture
Christine Healy, CPA, CA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7902
Ag Growth International
AFN.TO
88.2
$768 FS
VIC
AGT Food and Ingredients
AGT.TO
67.9
$634 SP
ANDE-Q, BG-N, ADM-N
Archer-Daniels-Midland
ADM.N
98.8 US$31596 SO
ANDE-Q, BG-N, AGT
Bunge Limited
BG.N
97.2 US$13446 SP
ADM-N, ANDE-Q, AGT
Cervus Equipment
CVL.TO
68.0
$302 SP
FTT, TIH, WJX, RME
Maple Leaf Foods Inc.
MFI.TO
64.6
$3016 SP
TSN-N, HSH-N
Rocky Mountain
RME.TO
77.5
$167 SP
CVL, FTT, TIH, WJX
Rogers Sugar Inc.
RSI.TO
75.3
$511 SP
N/A
SunOpta Inc.
STKL.O
85.3
US$775 SP
HAIN-O, WFM-O, BDBD-O
The Andersons, Inc.
ANDE.O
91.8 US$1363 SP
ADM-N, BG-N, AGT
Autos & Components
Mark Neville, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 350-7756
Exco Technologies Limited
XTC.TO
77.3
$628 SO
Linamar Corporation
LNR.TO
70.5
$4935 SO
Magna International Inc.
MGA.N
100.0 US$21166 FS
Michael Doumet, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 350-7778
Exco Technologies Limited
XTC.TO
77.3
$628 SO
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
53% U.S., 21% Canada, 26% International
Corn production, weather, farmer income, steel prices
64% Pulse & Speciality Crops, 15% Pasta, Semolina & Bulgur, 3% Rice, 18% Other
Weather, commodity prices, transportation costs
Agricultural Services 39%; Corn 15%; Oilseeds 46%; Other 0%
Corn processing volumes; Modest growth in oilseeds; Ethanol margins
Agribusiness 74%; Food & Ingredients 18%; Sugar & Bioenergy 7%; Fertilizer 1%
Agribusiness volumes; Sugar & Bioenergy Plant Utilization; Weather
68% Agriculture, 32% Commercial & Industrial
Crop production, non-res. construction and GDP growth in AB and SK; acquisitions
65% Meat Products, 1% Agribusiness, 34% Bakery Products
Consumer demand for pork and bakery products, commodity prices, FX
94% Agriculture, 6% Construction
Crop produ. in W. Canada, GDP growth & non-res. cons. in AB, commodity prices
By Facility: Montreal (67%), Vancouver (18%), Taber (15%)
Natural gas prices, imports and anti-dumping duties, weather, raw sugar prices
45% Global Sourcing and Supply, 11% Value Added Ingredients, 32% Consumer, 12% Opta
Natural/organic food consumption trends
Grain 65%; Ethanol 15%; Plant Nutrient 13%; Turf 3%; Rail 2%; Retail 2%
Rail business recovery; Acquisition integration in Grain & Fertilizer; Ethanol margins
MGA-N, LNR, MRE
MGA-N, BWA-N, AXL-N
JCI-N, LEA-N, DAN-N, MRE
40% Casting and Extrusion Technology, 60% Automotive Solutions
Powertrain/Driveline (84%); Industrial (16%)
North America (51%); Europe (42%); Rest of World (7%)
Large mould new pgms, seat cover programs, weaker C$, and lower comm. prices
Vehicle production volumes; new business launches; construction activity
Vehicle production volumes; margin expansion (Europe and ROW)
MGA-N, LNR, MRE
40% Casting and Extrusion Technology, 60% Automotive Solutions
Large mould new pgms, seat cover programs, weaker C$, and lower comm. prices
Banks
Sumit Malhotra, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-2874
Bank of Montreal
BMO.TO
100.0
$49922 SP
BNS, CM, NA, RY, TD
Bank of Nova Scotia
BNS.TO
100.0
$78602 SO
BMO, CM, NA, RY, TD
Canadian Imperial Bank
CM.TO
100.0
$36875 SO
BMO, BNS, NA, RY, TD
Canadian Western Bank
CWB.TO
100.0
$2308 SP
LB, SMALL CAP COMPANIES
Laurentian Bank of Canada
LB.TO
100.0
$1410 SP
CWB, SMALL CAP COMPANIES
National Bank of Canada
NA.TO
100.0
$15467 SP
BMO, BNS, CM, RY, TD
Royal Bank of Canada
RY.TO
100.0
$108730 SO
BMO, BNS, CM, NA, TD
TD Bank Financial Group
TD.TO
100.0
$98983 SO
BMO, BNS, CM, NA, RY
Claudia Benavente A., (Scotia Corredora de Bolsa Chile SA) +562 2692 6568
Banco de Chile
CHI.SN
17.0
CLP 6807614 SO
BSAC-N, BCI-SN, BCA-N
Banco de Crédito
BCI.SN
32.7
CLP 3028321 SP
BCH-N, BSAC-N, BCA-N
Banco Santander-Chile
STG.SN
32.8
CLP 6045351 SP
BCH-N, BCI-SN, BCA-N
CorpBanca
COB.SN
46.7
CLP 2521033 SO
BCI-SN, BCH-N, BSAC-N
Grupo Financiero Banorte,
GFNORTEO.MX
88.1MXN 219155 SP
SANMEX B-MX, GFINBUR O-MX
Grupo Financiero Inbursa,
GFINBURO.MX31.3MXN 266681 SU
GFNORTE O-MX, SANMEX B-MX
Grupo Financiero
SANMEXB.MX 25.0MXN 235013 SO
GFNORTE O-MX, GFINBUR O-MX
Cash Earnings: 56% Retail, 20% Wealth Management, 24% Investment Banking
Cash Earnings: 33% Cdn Banking, 25% Int’l Banking, 23% Wholesale, 19% Wealth
Cash Earnings: 67% Retail, 23% Investment Banking, 11% Wealth Management
Revenues: 83% core NII, 10% other fee income, 7% market sensitive
Cash Earnings: 59% Personal & Commercial, 34% B2B Trust, 6% Wholesale
Cash Earnings: 47% Retail, 16% Wealth Management, 37% Investment Banking
Cash Earnings: 53% Cdn P&C, 21% Wholesale, 20% Wealth & Insurance, 6% Int’l
Cash Earnings: 50% Cdn Retail, 24% U.S. Retail, 17% Wlth Mgmt, 9% Wholesale
Consumer, Interest Rates, Capital Markets
Consumer, Interest Rates, Capital Markets
Consumer, Interest Rates, Capital Markets
Consumer, Interest Rates, Western Canadian Economy
Consumer, Interest Rates, Quebec Economy
Consumer, Interest Rates, Capital Markets
Consumer, Interest Rates, Capital Markets
Consumer, Interest Rates, Capital Markets
Loan Mix: Commercial 62.6%; Consumer 14.7%; Mortgage 22.7%
Loan Mix: Commercial 68.6%; Consumer 12.3%; Mortgage 19.1%
Loan Mix: Commercial 53.5%; Consumer 17.0%; Residential Mortgage 29.5%
Loan Mix: Commercial 76.5%; Consumer 6.2%; Mortgage 17.3%
Loan Mix: Commercial 70%, Consumer 12%, Residential Mortgages 18%
Loan Mix: Commercial 91%, Consumer 8%, Residential Mortgages 1%
Loan Mix: Commercial 61%, Consumer 18%, Residential Mortgages 21%
Consumer, interest rates
SMEs, interest rates
Consumer, interest rates
Interest rates, capital markets
Consumer, SMEs, Interest rates
Interest rates, Exchange rates, Capital markets
Retail business, Interest rates
Brokers
Sumit Malhotra, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-2874
Canaccord Genuity Group
CF.TO
70.0
$626 SO
GMP Capital Inc.
GMP.TO
68.8
$385 SP
71% Capital Markets, 30% Wealth Management
55% Investment Banking, 24% Commissions, 21% Investment Management & Other
Underwriting, M&A, trading activity, investment performance, commodity prices
Underwriting, M&A, trading activity, investment performance, commodity prices
GMP, EVR-N, JMP-N, RJF-N
CF, EVR-N, JMP-N, RJF-N
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
2
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Cable
Jeff Fan, CPA, CA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7780
Cogeco Cable Inc.
CCA.TO
67.8
$3501 SP
Quebecor Inc.
QBRb.TO
68.9
$4035 FS
Rogers Communications
RCIb.TO
71.1
$23265 SP
Shaw Communications Inc.
SJRb.TO
87.6
$13938 SO
RCI.B, SJR.B, CMCSA-Q, TWC-N
CCA, RCI.B, SJR.B
CCA, SJR.B, T
CCA, RCI.B, CMCSA-Q, TWC-N
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
65% Canadian Cable, 20% U.S. Cable, 15% Enterprise
EBITDA: 68% Cable, 23% Newspaper, 6% Broadcast, 3% Other
56% Wireless, 33% Cable & Telecom, 13% Media, -2% Eliminations
29% Cable, 22% Internet, 18% Media, 15% DTH, 14% Telephony, 2% Satellite Svcs.
Basic cable, VoIP + Internet penetration, ARPU growth
Basic cable, VoIP + Internet penetration, ARPU growth
Subscriber and ARPU growth in wireless, Basic cable, Internet, and VoIP
Basic cable, Internet, VoIP, and DTH subscriber and ARPU growth
Construction
Paul Figueroa Mantero, MSc, MBA (Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa SA) +511-211-5918
Graña y Montero
GRAM.N
76.9 US$1385 SO
ICA-N, BESALCO-SN, SALFACORP-SN
Eng. & Construction 63%; Tech. Services 19%; Infrastructure 13%; Real Estate 5%
Construction Materials
Francisco Suarez, (Scotiabank Inverlat) +52 (55) 9179 5209
Cementos Argos
CEMARGOS.CN
3COP
0.2 12931380 SP
CX-N; CLH-CN
Cementos Pacasmayo
CPAC.N
48.4
US$989 SO
UNACEMC1-LM; CLH-CN
Cemex LatAm Holdings
CLH.CN
26.6
COP 8674175 SO
CPAC-N; UNACEMC1-PE
CEMEX SAB de
CX.N
95.0 US$12415 SO
HOLN-CH, LG-FR, HEI-DE
Paul Figueroa Mantero, MSc, MBA (Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa SA) +511-211-5918
Cementos Pacasmayo
CPAC.N
48.4
US$989 SO
UNACEMC1-LM; CLH-CN
Public and private investment in Peru
Sales: U.S. 31%, Colombia 46%, Caribbean 23%; Heavy-Side/Light-Side 55%/45%
All sales in northern Peru. Cement sales account for ~85% of total sales
Volumes: ready-mix concrete/aggregates 34%, cement 66%; Colombia 60% of sales
Cement 47%, ready-mix concrete/aggregates 53%; ~60% of sales in developed mkts.
Operating gearing from U.S. operations, acquisitions at reasonable prices
Material unit cost reduction beginning in Q2/15. Cement volume for 2014 limited to 4%
High utilization ratios, sound pricing, use of alternative fuels
Strong operating gearing, recovery of U.S. & European markets; liability management
All sales in northern Peru. Cement sales account for ~85% of total sales
Material unit cost reduction beginning in Q2/15. Cement volume for 2014 limited to 4%
94% Electricity; 5% Natural Gas; 1% Solar
83% Consumer; 16% AFH; 1% Other
Customer Adds, Attrition, Wholesale Energy Prices
GDP & Population Growth; Pulp Prices
Convenience Stores
Patricia A. Baker, MBA, PhD (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 287-4535
Alimentation Couche-Tard
ATDb.TO
70.7
$26976 SO
CASY, CST-N, PTRY, SUSS
20% Merchandise & Services, 70% Motor Fuel, 10% Other
Same-store sales, new store openings, fuel margins
Diversified Financials
Phil Hardie, P.Eng., MBA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7430
AGF Management Limited
AGFb.TO
75.0
$675 SP
CIX, IGM
Aston Hill Financial Inc.
AHF.TO
61.5
$55 SP
FSZ, GCG.A, GS, SII
CI Financial Corp.
CIX.TO
100.0
$9416 SP
AGF.B, IGM, DW
DH Corporation
DH.TO
100.0
$3341 SP
FIS-N, FISV-OQ, JKHY-OQ, DLX-N
Element Financial
EFN.TO
98.1
$3723 SO
CAP-N, GMT-N, CIT-N, CSE-N
Equitable Group Inc.
EQB.TO
76.6
$888 SP
HCG, FN.UN
Fiera Capital Corporation
FSZ.TO
32.3
$876 SO
AGF.B CIX, GCG.A
First National Financial
FN.TO
19.7
$1335 SP
ETC, HCG, FC.UN, MKP
Genworth MI Canada Inc.
MIC.TO
42.5
$2926 SP
N.A.
Gluskin Sheff
GS.TO
79.1
$920 SP
SII, IGM
Guardian Capital Group
GCGa.TO
65.3
$534 SP
AGF.B, CIX, FSZ
Home Capital Group Inc.
HCG.TO
89.5
$3053 SP
ETC, FN.UN
IGM Financial Inc.
IGM.TO
40.0
$11565 SO
AGF.B, CIX
Intact Financial
IFC.TO
100.0
$11431 SO
ALL, MCY, PGR, STFC
Morneau Shepell Inc.
MSI.TO
89.8
$828 SP
GLH-U, ENF-U, GZM-U
Onex Corporation
OCX.TO
81.4
$7874 SP
NYSE: BX, KKR
Power Corporation
POW.TO
75.6
$14622 SO
PWF, GWO, IGM, SLF, MFC
Power Financial
PWF.TO
33.9
$25359 SP
POW, GWO, IGM, SLF, MFC
Sprott Inc.
SII.TO
50.2
$696 SP
GS, IGM
TMX Group Ltd.
X.TO
26.0
$2505 SP
ASX-AU, SGX-SP, DB1-DB
Assets: 54% Mutual Funds, 45% Institutional/PIM, 1% Others
Assets: 48% Financial Portfolio Mgmt.; 50% Financial Portfolio Advisory; 2% AUA
Assets: 78% Mutual Funds/ Institutional, 22% Administered/Other Assets
26% Payment Solutions, 26% Lending Processing, 48% Banking Technology
Comm & Vendor (31%), Aviation (20%), Fleet (28%), Rail (22%). Based on 2014E orig.
Mortgage receivable mix: Single-family (41%), Commercial (9%), Other (50%)
Assets: 54% Institutional, 33% Mutual Fund, 13% Private Client
Mortgage origination; Servicing & administration and investments
75% Mortgage Insurance Underwriting, 25% Investment Income
Assets: 90% Private Client, 10% Institutional
Assets: 92% Institutional, 8% Private Client
Loan mix: Residential (71%), Securitized (20%), Commercial (6%), Other (2%)
Assets: 50% Investors Group, 48% Mackenzie, 2% Investment Planning Council
70% Personal (65% auto, 35% property), 30% Commercial.
34% Admin. Solutions, 33% EAP, 22% Consulting, 11% Absence Mgmt Solutions
Electronics Mfg 28%, Healthcare 11%, Building Products 19%, Other 42%
NAV: 92% PWF, 13% Other Investments & Assets, -5% L-T Debt and Preferred Shares
NAV: 77% GWO, 24% IGM, 7% Pargesa, -1% Other, -7% Debt and Preferred Shares
Assets: 21% Mutual fund, 17% Private Client, 62% Institutional and Other
42% Trading & Clearing, 28% Listing Fees, 27% Market Data, Other 3%
AUM, gross sales, redemptions
AUM, AUA, gross sales, redemptions
AUM, AUA, gross sales, redemptions
Cheque demand, mortgage origination activity, mortgage re-financing activity
Origination volumes, net interest margins, credit
Mortgage loan growth; Interest rates; Loan credit performance
AUM, gross sales, redemptions
Mortgage loan origination; Interest rates
Economic conditions, housing market, unemployment rates
AUM, net sales, investment performance, performance fees
BMO share prices, AUM, gross sales, redemptions
Mortgage and consumer loan growth; Interest rates; Loan credit performance
AUM, gross sales, redemptions
Premium rates, business retention, interest rates, equity markets, legislative reforms
Outsourcing adoption; Corporate focus on employee health
Economic conditions, performance of operating companies, health of capital markets.
PWF, GWO, IGM
GWO, IGM, Pargesa
AUM, net sales, investment performance, performance fees
Trading Volumes, IPO/secondary financing activity, equity market performance
Consumer Products
George Doumet, (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 350-7788
Crius Energy Trust
KWH_u.TO
26.6
$191 SP
KP Tissue Inc.
KPT.TO
16.7
$943 SO
JE-T
KMB-US, PG-US, CLX-US
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
3
February 5, 2015
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
ASG (100%)
Industrial (37%); Institutional (26%); Retail and Commercial (37%)
Label (65%); Container (9%); Avery (26%)
Food Services (85%); Retail (15%)
Aviation (30%); Manufacturing (70%)
Intelligence (11%); Buildings (~50%); Infrastructure (~35%)
Crossties (41%); Utility Poles (42%); Industrial (6%); Residential (12%)
Institutional (45%); Commercial (19%); Industrial (36%)
Home-to-School (87%); Extracurricular Transport (6%); Charter (5%); Oil/Gas (1%)
Flexible (51%); Rigid Container (47%); Packaging Machines (2%)
Canada (31%); Northern Europe (28%); U.K. (17%); U.S. (10%); ROW (14%)
Industrial Production, Business Capex, Business Sentiment
Non-residential construction
GDP
Disposable income growth; food inflation
Acquisition growth
Infrastructure (social and transportation) investment; residential construction
Maintenance of existing infrastructure; GDP growth
Non-residential construction; oil sands capex
Student enrolment; outsourcing of school transportation services
Packaging growth; consumer sentiment
Spending on public infrastructure; private sector investment
Diversified Industries
Benoit Laprade, CPA, CA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 287-3627
Brookfield Infrastructure
BIP.N
70.0 US$9546 SP
MIC-N
Canexus Corporation
CUS.TO
100.0
$512 SO
CHE.UN, OLN-N, PPG-N
Chemtrade Logistics
CHE_u.TO 100.0
$1385 SP
CUS, DOW-N, PPG-N, CE-N
Parkland Fuel Corporation
PKI.TO
97.7
$2005 SP
NYSE: GLP, APU; TSX: SPB
Superior Plus Corp.
SPB.TO
100.0
$1586 SP
CHE.UN, CUS
46% Utilities, 46% Transportation, 8% Energy
42% NA Sodium Chlorate, 37% NA Chlor-Alkali, 18% Brazil, 4% NATO
71% SPPC, 23% International, 6% Pulp Chemicals
Gross Margin: 75% Fuel, 25% Other Refined Products
2013 EBITDA: 48% Energy Serv., 40% Specialty Chems., 12% Construction Products
Global GDP; regulatory regimes; U.S. housing
Sodium chlorate & chlor-alkali prices; USD/CAD exchange rate; NATO ramp-up
NA industrial production; pulp and paper demand; chemical manufacturing
Fuel margins, crack spreads, general economic conditions, fossil fuel substitutes
Commodity prices; USD/CAD exchange; interest rates
Drug Retail
Patricia A. Baker, MBA, PhD (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 287-4535
Jean Coutu Group (PJC)
PJCa.TO
43.5
$4708 SP
WBA-N, CVS-N, RAD-N
Walgreens Boots Alliance
WBA.N
92.1 US$71063 SO
CVS-N, RAD-N, PJC.A
Retail sales: 64% Pharmacy, 36% Front-end
CVS-N, RAD-N, PJC.A
Retail same-store sales growth, government pharmaceutical regulation
Same-store sales growth, Government health care policy
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Diversified Industrials
Mark Neville, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 350-7756
ATS Automation Tooling
ATA.TO
100.0
$1285 FS
Bird Construction Inc.
BDT.TO
99.8
$497 SP
CCL Industries Inc.
CCLb.TO
92.8
$4524 SO
Colabor Group Inc.
GCL.TO
81.2
$91 SO
Exchange Income
EIF.TO
91.2
$486 SO
IBI Group Inc.
IBG.TO
56.7
$36 SP
Stella-Jones Inc.
SJ.TO
61.3
$2630 SP
Stuart Olson Inc.
SOX.TO
87.0
$165 SP
Student Transportation
STB.TO
100.0
$595 SP
Winpak Ltd.
WPK.TO
47.3
$2437 SO
WSP Global Inc.
WSP.TO
64.6
$3222 SO
ROK-N; KU2-DE
ARE; CUQ; GVA-N
LABL-Q; ATR-N; AVY-N; WPK
SYY-N; CORE-Q; SPTN-Q; PBH
NONE
WSP; STN; ACM-N
KOP-N; FSTR-Q; TRN-N; VMI-N
ARE; BDT; GVA-N
FGP-L; NEX-L
BMS-N; SEE-N; CCL.B
ACM-N; IBG; STN
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
4
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Energy Infrastructure
Matthew Akman, MBA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7798
Algonquin Power
AQN.TO
75.1
$2609 SO
FTS, EMA, BEP.UN, INE
AltaGas Ltd.
ALA.TO
97.6
$6257 SP
KEY, IPL.UN, VSN
ATCO Ltd.
ACOx.TO
67.2
$5651 SP
CU
Brookfield Renewable
BEP_u.TO
37.5
$10612 SO
INE
Canadian Utilities
CU.TO
46.9
$10904 SO
ACO.X, TA
Capital Power Corporation
CPX.TO
81.8
$2638 SO
TA
Capstone Infrastructure
CSE.TO
96.4
$327 SP
AQN
Emera Incorporated
EMA.TO
99.9
$6011 SP
FTS, AQN
Enbridge Inc.
ENB.TO
99.7
$53574 SO
TRP
Enbridge Income Fund
ENF.TO
79.3
$3014 SO
VSN
Fortis Inc.
FTS.TO
99.5
$11239 SO
EMA
Gibson Energy Inc.
GEI.TO
99.2
$3104 SP
PPL, IPL.UN
Innergex Renewable Energy
INE.TO
88.6
$1204 SP
BEP.UN, NPI
Inter Pipeline Ltd.
IPL.TO
98.0
$10983 SP
PPL, VSN, KEY, GEI
Keyera Corp.
KEY.TO
98.8
$6545 SO
ALA, IPL.UN, PPL, VSN
Northland Power Inc.
NPI.TO
62.0
$2555 SO
ATP, AQN
Pattern Energy Group Inc.
PEGI.O
63.6 US$1807 R
R
Pembina Pipeline
PPL.TO
99.5
$13232 SO
ENF, IPL.UN, KEY, GEI
Spectra Energy Corp
SE.N
99.8 US$24297 SP
TRP, ENB
TransAlta Corporation
TA.TO
99.5
$3076 SO
CPX
TransAlta Renewables Inc.
RNW.TO
29.6
$1461 SO
PEGI-Q, INE, NPI, BEP.UN
TransCanada Corporation
TRP.TO
99.9
$41602 SP
ENB, SE-N
Veresen Inc.
VSN.TO
99.9
$4591 SP
ENF, IPL.UN, ALA
Ezequiel Fernández López, CFA (Scotia Corredora de Bolsa Chile SA) +56 9 9991 9152
AES Gener
ASG.SN
29.0
CLP 2769585 SO
ECL, ENDESA, COLBUN
Aguas Andinas
AGUAa.SN
45.0
CLP 2240276 SP
ESSBIO-SN, ESVAL-SN
Colbun
COL.SN
51.0
CLP 3111618 SU
ENDESA, AESGENER, ECL
COPASA
CSMG3.SA
51.3 BRL 1932 SO
SBSP3-SA, AGUAS-A-SN
E.CL
ECL.SN
47.0
CLP 1040698 SP
AESGENER, ENDESA, COLBUN
Endesa Chile
END.SN
60.0
CLP 7567677 SP
ECL, COLBUN, AESGENER
ENERSIS
ENE.SN
39.0
CLP 9768480 SP
ENDESA-SN
IEnova
IENOVA*.MX 18.9 MXN 83621 SP
CGAS5-BZ, ENB
SABESP
SBSP3.SA
49.7 BRL 9603 SP
CSMG3-SA, AGUAS-A-SN
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
’15E EBITDA: 45% Renewable, 5% Thermal, 50% Regulated Utility
’15E EBITDA: 35% G&P and Extraction, 31% Power, 34% Regulated Utilities
15E Earnings: 65% Regulated, 15% Energy, 5% ATCO Australia, 15% Structures/Other
’15E EBITDA: 80% Hydro, 20% Wind
’15E Earnings: 75% Regulated Utilities, 20% Energy, 5% ATCO Australia
’15 EBITDA: 80% Thermal Power, 20% Renewable Power
’15E EBITDA: 35% Regulated Utility, 10% Thermal/Biomass, 55% Renewable Power
Earnings: 90% Regulated, 5% Renewable Power, 5% Other
’15E Earnings: 60% Liquids, 10% Regulated Gas, Gas Pipelines 10%, Other 20%
’15E EBITDA: 15% Gas Pipeline, 40% Liquids, 35% Renewable Power
’15E Earnings: 90% Regulated Electric and Gas, 10% Renewable Power & Other
’14E EBITDA: 30% Oil Midstream, 70% Other Segments
’15E EBITDA: 70% Hydro, 20% Wind, 10% Solar
’15E EBITDA: 80% Liquids Transportation, 15% NGL Midstream, 5% Liquids Storage
’15E EBITDA: 80% Midstream/Other, 20% Marketing
’15E EBITDA: 70% Thermal Power, 30% Renewable Power
R
’15E EBITDA: 60% Midstream/Marketing, 40% Liquids Transportation
’15E EBITDA: 50% SEP, 20% Gas Distribution, 30% Western Canada & Field Services
’15E EBITDA: 65% Thermal Power, 20% Wind, 10% Hydro, 5% Marketing & Other
2015E as % of EBITDA: 90% Wind, 10% Hydro
’15E EBIT: 75% Gas & Oil Pipelines, 25% Power
’15E Free Cash Flow: 50% Pipelines, 40% Midstream, 10% Power
Wind Resource; Hydrology; Regulated ROE; Acquisitions; Growth Projects
Alberta power prices; NGL margins; Gas volumes; Regulated ROE
Regulated ROE; Infrastructure construction; Electricity prices in Alberta
Hydrology; Wind Resource; FX
Regulated ROE; Infrastructure construction; Electricity prices in Alberta
Electricity Prices in Alberta & US Northeast; Growth Projects; Environmental Legislation
Project Development; Wind resource; Hydrology; Regulated ROE’s; Acquisitions
Interest rates; Regulatory ROE; Rate cases; Growth projects
Interest rates; Regulatory environment; Commodity price differentials & volumes
Interest rates; Regulatory; Alliance recontracting; Renewable resource
Interest rates; Rate base growth; Regulated ROE; Acquisitions
Commodity price differentials; Drilling and oil field activity; Financing
Hydrology; Wind Resource; Growth Projects; Government Support for Renewables
Commodity prices; Frac spreads; Throughput volumes; FX
Natural gas & NGL prices; Gas plant throughput; FX
Projects Entering Service; Interest Rates; Project Financing, FX
R
Commodity prices; Throughput volumes; Pipeline tariffs; Interest rates
Interest rates; Regulatory approvals and ROEs; Commodity prices; Growth projects
Electricity Prices in Alberta, PacNW; Interest Rates; Re-contracting
Executing Drop-Downs;Financing;Interest Rates & Credit Spreads; Wind/Hydro Resource
Regulatory approvals; Interest rates; Power prices; Growth projects
NGL margins; Recontracting; Ethane volumes; FX
100% Generator
Water concession (90% of revs), consulting (10% of revs)
Power Generation
100% Water
Power Generator
Power generator (75% of ownership-adjusted EBITDA), electricity distributor (25%)
Power Generation and Distribution
Gas (downstream) ~90%, Power Generation ~10%
100% Water
Capacity Expansion Plans, EBITDA per MW
Water consumption per client, inflation
Capacity expansion, gross profit per MW
Regulation, hydrology, capex plans
Capacity expansion, gross profit per MW
Capacity expansion, gross profit per MW
Regulation, Hydrology, Capacity Expansion
CFE auctions, IRRs
Regulation, hydrology, capex plans
Food Products
George Doumet, (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 350-7788
Clearwater Seafoods Inc.
CLR.TO
32.6
$723 SP
TUF-TH; 1332-JP
Revenues: North America (34%), Europe (34%), Asia (31%) and other (1%)
High Liner Foods
HLF.TO
47.5
$745 SO
PBH; MFI; PF-N
47% U.S. Foodservice; 26% U.S. Retail; 15% Canada Retail; 12% Canada Food Service
Patricia A. Baker, MBA, PhD (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 287-4535
George Weston Limited
WN.TO
36.8
$12808 SO
FLO-N, HSH-N, LNCE-Q
95% Food Distribution, 5% Food Processing
Saputo Inc.
SAP.TO
65.3
$13872 SO
DF-N, KRFT-Q, WWAV-N
40% Canada, 50% United States, 10% International
Rodrigo Echagaray, MBA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-4405
Coca-Cola FEMSA, SAB
KOF.N
20.0 US$17166 SO
AC*.MX, AKO-B (NYSE)
Bottling: Water (5%), Bulk Water (10%), Still (5%), Sparkling (80%)
FEMSA, SAB de
FMX.N
53.7 US$31308 SO
N.A.
Bottling (51%), Convenience stores (26%), and Brewing (23%)
Paul Figueroa Mantero, MSc, MBA (Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa SA) +511-211-5918
Alicorp
ALI.LM
54.9 PEN 6127 SO
MX:BIMBOA,ALSEA;CB:NUTRESA;BZ:PCAR4,MDIA3
Consumer Goods 62%, Industrial Products 30%, Animal Nutrition 8%
Total Allowable Catch set by government; pricing on species harvested; foreign exchange
Volume growth; pricing pass-through; acquisitions
Food Processing: volume growth, product mix and ingredient cost inflation
Volume growth, product mix, cheese-milk spread
Volume of sales (million unit cases)
Volume of sales (Million Unit Cases), Sales per m2, SSS Growth
Economic Growth,Increasing Wages,Low Unemployment,Broad Portfolio,M&A Activity
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
5
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
Food Retail
Rodrigo Echagaray, MBA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-4405
Controladora Comercial
COMEUBC.MX37.0 MXN 50195 SP
SORIANAB.MX, WALMEXV.MX
Grupo Comercial Chedraui,
CHDRAUIB.MX16.7 MXN 40263 SU
SORIANAB.MX, WALMEXV.MX
Organización Soriana,
SORIANAB.MX14.0 MXN 64044 SU
WALMEXV.MX, COMERCIUBC.MX
Wal-Mart de México
WALMEXV.MX30.9MXN 520946 SO
SORIANAB.MX, COMERCIUBC.MX
Patricia A. Baker, MBA, PhD (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 287-4535
Empire Company Limited
EMPa.TO
58.4
$8458 SO
L, MRU
Loblaw Companies Limited
L.TO
53.4
$25517 SP
EMP.A, MRU
Metro Inc.
MRU.TO
99.6
$8578 SO
L, EMP.A
The Kroger
KR.N
98.7 US$34773 SO
SWY-N, L, MRU, EMP.A
Retail 97%, restaurants 2%, real estate 1%.
100% retail
100% retail
Retail 100%
Same-store sales growth
Same-store sales growth
Same-store sales growth
Same-store sales growth
99% Food Retailing, 1% Investments & Other Operations
98% Retail, 2% Financial Services
92% Food, 8% Pharmacy
94% Food Retail, 5% Convenience, 0.5% Jewelry, 0.5% Other
Same-store sales growth, food price inflation
Same-store sales growth, food price inflation
Same-store sales growth, food price inflation
Identical-store (ID) sales growth, food price inflation
Global Fertilizers
Ben Isaacson, MBA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-5310
Agrium Inc.
AGU.N
99.8 US$15322 SO
CF-N, IPI-N, MOS-N, YAR-OL
CF Industries Holdings,
CF.N
99.5 US$14950 SO
AGU, MOS-N, POT, YAR-OL
Intrepid Potash, Inc.
IPI.N
73.6 US$1046 SP
AGU, SDF-GR, MOS-N, POT
K+S
SDFGn.DE
90.1 EUR 5407 SP
AGU, IPI-N, MOS-N, POT, SQM-N
Potash Corporation
POT.N
99.4 US$30940 SP
AGU, IPI-N, SDF-GR, MOS-N
Sociedad Quimica y Minera
SQM.N
0.0 US$6446 SP
AGU, POT, IPI-N, MOS-N
The Mosaic Company
MOS.N
93.4 US$18716 SO
AGU, IPI-N, SDF-GR, POT
Yara International
YAR.OL
63.4NOK 107322 SP
AGU, CF-N, SDF-GR, POT
Gross Profit: 55% Retail; 45% Wholesale;
Gross Profit: 100% Nitrogen;
100% Potash (85% MOP; 15% Langbeinite)
EBITDA: 52% Potash; 44% Salt; 4% Complementary Services
Gross Profit: 57% Potash; 29% Nitrogen; 14% Phosphate
GM: 21% SPN; 23% Potash; 36% Iodine; 13% Lithium; 7% Industrial Chem & Others
Gross Profit: 45% Phosphate; 55% Potash
EBITDA: 32% Downstream; 60% Upstream; 8% Industrial
Global fertilizer supply/demand, farmer economics, crop prices, biofuels mandates
Global nitrogen supply/demand, U.S. farmer economics, crop prices, global biofuels
U.S. potash supply/demand, U.S. farmer economics, U.S. crop prices, U.S. ethanol
Potash supply/demand, farmer economics, U.S. and European winters, biodiesel
Global fertilizer supply/demand, farmer economics, crop prices, biofuels mandates
Global fertilizer, lithium, iodine supply/demand, Chilean pension fund reform
Global fertilizer supply/demand, farmer economics, crop prices, biofuels mandates
Global nitrogen supply/demand, nitrogen cost position, European biodiesel mandates
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
6
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Gold & Precious Minerals
Tanya Jakusconek, MSc, Applied (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-4083
Acacia Mining
ABGL.L
36.1
1186 SP
AEM; ELD; GOLD-Q; IMG; YRI
Gold
Agnico Eagle Mines
AEM.N
100.0 US$7167 SO
ABG-L; ELD; GOLD-Q; IMG; YRI
Gold; Copper; Silver; Zinc
AngloGold Ashanti Limited
AU.N
100.0 US$5272 SP
ABX; GFI-N; G; K; NEM-N
Gold; Silver
Barrick Gold Corporation
ABX.N
100.0 US$15211 SP
GFI-N; G; K; NEM-N
Gold; Copper; Silver
Compañía de Minas
BVN.N
65.0 US$2804 SP
AEM; ELD; IMG; K; GOLD-Q; YRI
Gold; Silver; Copper; Zinc; Lead
Dominion Diamond
DDC.N
99.0 US$1413 SO
TIF-N; MC-FR
Diamond mining
Eldorado Gold Corporation
EGO.N
99.0 US$3803 SO
ABG-L; AEM; IMG; GOLD-Q; YRI
Gold; Silver
Franco-Nevada Corporation
FNV.N
96.0 US$8441 SP
RGLD
Gold; Silver; Platinum; Palladium; Copper; Oil and Gas
Gold Fields Limited
GFI.N
94.8 US$4483 SP
ABX; G; K; NEM-N
Gold
Goldcorp Inc.
GG.N
99.0 US$20373 SO
ABX; GFI-N; K; NEM-N
Gold; Zinc; Silver; Copper; Lead
IAMGOLD Corporation
IAG.N
99.0
US$998 SP
ABG-L; AEM; ELD; GOLD-Q; YRI
Gold
Kinross Gold Corporation
KGC.N
100.0 US$3922 SP
ABX; GFI-N; G; NEM-N
Gold; Silver
Newmont Mining
NEM.N
100.0 US$12658 SP
ABX; G; GFI-N; K
Gold; Silver; Copper
Randgold Resources
GOLD.O
99.0 US$7850 SP
ABG-L; AEM; ELD; YRI
Gold
Royal Gold Inc.
RGLD.O
95.0 US$4683 SP
FNV
Gold; Silver; Copper; Zinc; Nickel; Lead
Yamana Gold Inc.
AUY.N
100.0 US$3929 SO
ABG-L; AEM; ELD; IMG; GOLD-Q
Gold; Copper; Silver
Trevor Turnbull, MBA, MSc (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7427
Alamos Gold Inc.
AGI.N
100.0
US$739 SP
AUQ-T, SMF-T, ANV-T
Gold
Allied Nevada Gold Corp.
ANV.A
100.0
US$146 SU
AGI, AUQ, SMF
Gold, Silver
AuRico Gold Inc.
AUQ.N
100.0
US$968 SO
SMF-T, AGI-T
Gold, Silver
Bear Creek Mining
BCM.V
100.0
$142 SP
OK-V
Silver, Lead, and Zinc
Centerra Gold Inc.
CG.TO
98.9
$1236 SO
EGO-A
Gold
Detour Gold Corporation
DGC.TO
100.0
$1994 R
R
R
Gabriel Resources Ltd.
GBU.TO
99.5
$282 SP
EOM-T
Gold, Silver
Golden Star Resources
GSS.A
100.0
US$87 SU
JAG-T
Gold
Guyana Goldfields Inc.
GUY.TO
99.6
$510 SO
TXG-T, R-T, SSRI-Q
Gold
Hecla Mining Company
HL.N
100.0 US$1247 SP
PAAS-Q, FSM-N
Silver, Zinc, Lead, Gold
Lydian International
LYD.TO
100.0
$85 R
R
R
MAG Silver Corp.
MVG.A
100.0
US$520 SO
BCM-V, TXG, GUY
Silver, Gold, Lead, Zinc
New Gold Inc.
NGD.A
100.0 US$1996 SP
EGO-A
Gold, Copper
Osisko Gold Royalties
OR.TO
100.0
$1396 R
R
R
Silver Wheaton Corp.
SLW.N
100.0 US$8504 SO
PAAS-Q
Silver
Torex Gold Resources Inc.
TXG.TO
96.0
$1150 SO
AKG-T, GUY-T, R-T
Gold
Ovais Habib, (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7141
Alacer Gold Corp.
ASR.TO
79.5
$888 SP
AUQ, CG, GSC, NGD, SMF
100% Gold
Argonaut Gold Inc.
AR.TO
98.0
$373 SO
AGI, ANV, ASR, P, RIO, TMM
100% Gold
B2Gold Corp.
BTO.TO
94.1
$2270 FS
AGI,AUQ,DGC,DPM,NGD,OSK,P,SMF
100% Gold
Belo Sun Mining Corp.
BSX.TO
98.1
$70 SP
GBU,GUY,LYD,ORE,TXG
100% Gold
First Majestic Silver
AG.N
96.2
US$773 SP
N:CDE,FSM,HL; Q:PAAS,SSRI
88% Silver, 5% Lead, 4% Gold, 2% Zinc
Premier Gold Mines
PG.TO
96.6
$396 SO
CNL,PLG,PRB,PVG,RMX,SBB
100% Gold
Pretium Resources Inc.
PVG.TO
72.3
$1227 SP
KGI, LSG, RMX, SEA
100% Gold
Primero Mining Corp.
P.TO
32.4
$948 R
R
R
Rio Alto Mining Ltd.
RIO.TO
94.0
$1261 SP
AGI,ANV,AR,AUQ,P,SMF,TGZ,TMM 100% Gold (based on 2015E revenue)
SEMAFO Inc.
SMF.TO
99.7
$1255 SO
AGI,AUQ,BTO,DPM,CG,DGC,NGD,P100% Gold
Teranga Gold Corporation
TGZ.TO
99.4
$233 SP
AGI,AUQ,BTO,DPM,CG,DGC,P,SMF100% Gold
Timmins Gold Corp.
TMM.TO
96.3
$251 SP
AGI, ANV, AR, ASR, P, RIO
100% Gold
True Gold Mining Inc.
TGM.V
62.5
$84 SP
AKG,BSX,GUY,LYD,ORE,TXG
100% Gold
Performance Drivers
Commodity prices; foreign exchange risk; operational risk; geopolitical risk
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates; economic outlook
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Commodity prices; energy prices; foreign exchange rates
Gold price, margins, production growth and exploration.
Gold Price, Reserve and Resource Increases
Gold and Silver Prices, Production Milestones, Reserve and Resource Increases
Silver Prices, Reserve and Resource Increases
Gold & energy prices; exchange rates relative to USD
R
Receipt of Permit from Romania, Gold Prices
Gold Price, Electricity Prices in Ghana, Gold Recovery Rates
Gold price, completion of financing
Silver Prices, Reserve and Resource Increases
R
Advancement of Juanicipio and resource update; Cinco de Mayo surface rights
Production ramp-up, Development of the Afton project, Gold and copper prices
R
Silver Price, Attributable Production Increases, Attributable Resource Increases
Completion of FS, Gold Prices
Gold price, EUR/USD exchange rate
Gold price and CAD/USD exchange rate
Gold price and CAD/USD exchange rate
Gold price, USD:CAD exchange rate
Silver price, lead price, gold price, zinc price, USD:MXN exchange rate
Resource updates and Preliminary Economic Assessment
Drill results, Resource update, Feasibility Study
R
Gold price, Copper price
Gold price
Gold price; EUR/USD exchange rate
Gold price
Gold price, USD:CAD exchange rate
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
7
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Mike Hocking, MSc, P.Geo. (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-5228
Altius Minerals
ALS.TO
100.0
$448 SP
RGLD-Q, FNV, SLW
Continental Gold Limited
CNL.TO
82.0
$267 SP
SUE, TXG, PVG, GBU
Newstrike Capital Inc.
NES.V
100.0
$109 SO
AKG, GBU, GUY, LYD, PG, RR
NGEx Resources Inc.
NGQ.TO
69.8
$186 SO
LCC, AZC, NCU
Pilot Gold Inc.
PLG.TO
66.9
$116 SP
AKG, GBU, GUY, LYD, PG, RR
Probe Mines Limited
PRB.V
84.1
$459 T
CNL, PVG, PG
Reservoir Minerals Inc.
RMC.V
92.4
$190 SO
N/A
Rubicon Minerals
RMX.TO
99.0
$542 SP
CNL, PVG, PG
Craig Johnston, CPA, CA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 860-1659
Coeur Mining, Inc.
CDE.N
100.0
US$748 R
R
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.
FSM.N
100.0
US$641 SP
HL-N, SSRI-Q
Lucara Diamond Corp.
LUC.TO
82.2
$754 SO
DDC; MPV; SWY
Mountain Province
MPV.TO
81.7
$680 SO
DDC; LUC; SWY
Pan American Silver Corp.
PAAS.O
100.0 US$1809 SP
SLW-N, HL-N, SSRI-Q
Silver Standard Resources
SSRI.O
100.0
US$496 SP
CDE-N, HL-N
Stornoway Diamond
SWY.TO
71.3
$417 SO
MPV, DDC, LUC
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
Thermal Coal (58%); Potash (18%); Nickel/Copper (14%); Met. Coal (10%)
Gold and silver
100% gold, silver exploration
100% Copper-Gold Exploration
100% gold, copper, silver exploration
100% Gold
Copper and gold
100% Gold
Commodity prices
Pre-feasibility study, updated mineral resource estimate, final permits, production
Drill results, mineral resource estimates, metallurgical test work results
Drill results, Resource updates, Preliminary Economic Study
Drill results, mineral resource estimates, updated preliminary economic assessment
Exploration results, updated mineral resource estimate, land consolidation
Exploration results, mineral resource estimate, pre-feasibility study, financing
Construction progress, initial production
R
Silver, Gold, Zinc, Lead
Diamonds
Diamonds
Silver, Gold, Zinc, Lead, Copper
Silver, Zinc, Lead, Gold
Diamonds
R
Silver, Gold, Lead and Zinc Prices; Reserve Increases; Political Stability
Diamond prices, special stone recovery and quality, operational performance
Diamond prices, permitting timeline, construction progress, financing
Silver Prices, Reserve and Resource Increases
Silver Prices, Production Milestones, Reserve and Resource Increases
Diamonds prices, construction progress, exploration success
Hardware & Equipment
Daniel Chan, MBA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7552
BlackBerry
BB.TO
100.0
$6617 SP
Celestica Inc.
CLS.TO
63.9
$2566 SP
DragonWave Inc.
DWI.TO
68.8
$78 SU
Evertz Technologies
ET.TO
34.9
$1333 SP
Flextronics International
FLEX.O
99.7 US$6802 SP
Jabil Circuit, Inc.
JBL.N
90.5 US$4150 SO
QUALCOMM Incorporated
QCOM.O
100.0 US$114564 SP
Sandvine Corporation
SVC.TO
100.0
$518 SO
Sierra Wireless Inc.
SW.TO
100.0
$1478 SP
AAPL-N, NOK-N, SW
FLEX-Q, SANM-Q, JBL-N
CRNT-Q; AVNW-Q; SVC; SW
HRS-US; EVSB-BR; BDC-US
CLS-N, SANM-Q, JBL-N
FLEX-Q, SANM-Q, CLS-N
BRCM, NVDA, INTC, Mediatek
ALLT, CSCO, PKT, JNPR
NVTL, OPTI-BR, GTO, CAMP, DGII
Devices 56%, Service 40%, Software 4%, Other 1%
Stor./Oth. 14.3%, Servers 10.9%, Cons. 6.3%, Comm. 42.2%, Ind,/Aero/Defense 26.3%
28.5% North America, 56.6% EMEA, 14.9% Other
United States/Canada 53.5%, International 46.5%
41.3% Networking, 14.9% Industrial, 12.9% High Reliability, 30.9% High Velocity
44.2% DMS, 30.6% Enterprise and Infrastructure, 25.2% High Velocity Systems
Chipset Sales (QCT) 68.2%, IP Licensing (QTL) 30%, Other 1.2%
Cable 17.4%, DSL 19.4%, Wireless/Mobile/FTTx 31.2%, Services 31.9%
Enterprise Solutions 13.5%, OEM Solutions 86.5%
Subscriber growth, device sales, global mobile data services adoption
Enterprise and telecom equipment spending, increased vendor/OEM outsourcing
Growth in mobile broadband traffic, deployment of LTE.
HDTV and IPTV service rollout
Enterprise and telecom equipment spending, increased vendor/OEM outsourcing
Enterprise and telecom equipment spending, increased OEM outsourcing
Growth of wireless device markets, market share gains in wireless devices.
DPI deploy. by serv. provider, growth in Internet traff., 3G/4G network deploy., P2P, IPTV.
3G/4G mobile network deployments, growth in mobile data services, M2M adoption.
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
George Doumet, (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 350-7788
Great Canadian Gaming
GC.TO
60.7
$1385 SO
MTY Food Group Inc.
MTY.TO
70.4
$701 SO
Whistler Blackcomb
WB.TO
65.8
$727 SO
BYD-N, ASCA-Q, CNTY-Q
PZA-T; PLKI-N; SONC-N
MTN-N
Revenue breakdown: Gaming (66%), Racetrack (3%), Hospitality & Other (31%)
73% Franchising; 11% Corporate Stores; 10% Processing; 6% Distribution
62% regional ; 38% destination visits
Growth in amounts wagered; Capacity additions
Same-store sales growth; net store openings; acquisitions
GDP, personal disposable income, skier participation rates
68% Agriculture, 32% Commercial & Industrial
50% Canada, 37% South America, 13% UK & Ireland
48% United States, 29% Canada, 14% Europe, 9% Other
94% Agriculture, 6% Construction
52% Construction, 27% Mining, 21% Other
53% Equipment, 21% Power Systems, 26% Industrial Components
Crop production, non-res. construction and GDP growth in AB and SK; acquisitions
GDP growth; oil sands/mining actvity & capex; Chile copper prod.; non-res. cons.
(2014E) After-sale services 39%; CAT M&E 31%; Rental & Used 10%; Allied M&E 7%
Peruvian Gross Investment; Peruvian Mining Investment; Metal Prices
Industrial Products
Christine Healy, CPA, CA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7902
Cervus Equipment
CVL.TO
68.0
$302 SP
FTT, TIH, WJX, RME
Finning International
FTT.TO
98.7
$3929 SO
TIH, WJX, RME, CVL
Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers
RBA.N
95.5 US$2815 SO
PCLN-Q, CPRT-Q, BID-N
Rocky Mountain
RME.TO
77.5
$167 SP
CVL, FTT, TIH, WJX
Toromont Industries Ltd.
TIH.TO
95.5
$2156 SP
FTT, WJX, CVL, RME
Wajax Corporation
WJX.TO
95.7
$441 SP
FTT, TIH, RME, CVL
Paul Figueroa Mantero, MSc, MBA (Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa SA) +511-211-5918
Ferreycorp
FERREYC1.LM
100.0 PEN 1501 SO
FTT;TIH;WJX;SQP;CVL;RME
Crop produ. in W. Canada, GDP growth & non-res. cons. in AB, commodity prices
GDP growth in ON, MB, Nfld; non-res. construction, commodity prices, mining capex
Oil sands/mining capex, non-res. constructoin, GDP growth, commodity prices
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
8
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Insurance
Sumit Malhotra, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-2874
Great-West Lifeco Inc.
GWO.TO
29.0
$33047 SO
IAG, LNC-N, MFC, SLF
Industrial Alliance
IAG.TO
100.0
$3892 SP
GWO, LNC-N, MFC, SLF
Manulife Financial
MFC.TO
100.0
$39815 SO
GNW-N, MET-N, PRU-N, SLF
Sun Life Financial Inc.
SLF.TO
100.0
$25029 SP
LNC-N, MET-N, MFC, PRU-N
Phil Hardie, P.Eng., MBA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7430
Genworth MI Canada Inc.
MIC.TO
42.5
$2926 SP
N.A.
Intact Financial
IFC.TO
100.0
$11431 SO
ALL, MCY, PGR, STFC
Media
Paul Steep, MBA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-4310
Cineplex Inc.
CGX.TO
100.0
$2915
Corus Entertainment Inc.
CJRb.TO
87.5
$1917
DHX Media Ltd.
DHXb.TO
57.4
$1082
Postmedia Network Canada
PNCb.TO
99.0
$84
Thomson Reuters
TRI.TO
45.5
$39821
Torstar Corporation
TSb.TO
43.6
$583
Transcontinental Inc.
TCLa.TO
86.1
$1250
Andres Coello, (Scotiabank Inverlat) +52 (55) 5123 2852
Grupo Televisa,
TV.N
72.0 US$19481
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
Net Income: 54% Canada; 33% Europe; 13% United States
Net Income: 56% Ind. Ins.; 28% Ind. Wealth Mgmt.; 10% Grp. Ins.; 6% Grp. Pensions
Net Income: 45% United States; 28% Asia; 27% Canada
Net Income: 48% Canada; 28% MFS; 17% United States; 7% Asia
Interest rates, credit and equity markets, USD/CAD exchange rate
Interest rates, credit and equity markets
Interest rates, credit and equity markets, USD/CAD exchange rate
Interest rates, credit and equity markets, USD/CAD exchange rate
75% Mortgage Insurance Underwriting, 25% Investment Income
70% Personal (65% auto, 35% property), 30% Commercial.
Economic conditions, housing market, unemployment rates
Premium rates, business retention, interest rates, equity markets, legislative reforms
SO
SP
SP
R
SP
SP
SP
RGC-N, CKEC-Q, NCMI-Q
ACM.A,TVA.B,CGS
DWA-O, ETO-L, CJR.B-T, DIS-N
R
ADVS, FDS, IDC, REL-LN
QBR.B, CGS, TCL.A,GVC
QBR.B, TS.B, CGS
57% Box Office, 30% Concessions, 13% Other
21% Radio ad, 25% Specialty TV ad, 44% Subscriber fees, amd 10% Merchandising
In F2013, 39.0% production, 36.3% merchandising & licensing, and 24.6% distribution
R
2013 Rev.: 54% Financial & Risk, 27% Legal, 10% Tax & Accounting, 8% IP & Science
37% Metroland Media, 33% Star Media, 30% Book Publishing
29% Printing Products, 46% Marketing Products, 25% Media (Papers, Magazines, dgl.)
Box office blockbusters, attendance, digital advertising
Ad industry growth/cycle, specialty/pay TV and radio growth, TV ratings
New content production to expand library, growth in digital distribution.
R
Integration synergies, integration cost performance, adjusted EBITDA margin
Ad spending growth/cycle, bestseller titles, USD/CAD exchange rate, online ad growth
Ad spending growth/cycle, large print contract wins
SU
TVAZ.CPO (MX),MEGA.CPO (MX)
46% Content, 24% Cable & Wireline, 22% Satellite Pay-TV (sky), 8% Other
Ad industry spending growth/cycle, shift to subscription media services, TV ratings
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
9
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Metals & Mining
Mark Turner, MBA, P.Eng. (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7484
Alderon Iron Ore Corp.
ADV.TO
40.5
$44 SP
LIF.UN, NML, LIM, CHM
Capstone Mining Corp.
CS.TO
76.8
$539 SO
LUN, HBM, CUM, TKO, III, NSU
Champion Iron Ltd.
CIA.TO
94.4
$25 SU
LIF.UN, NML, LIM, ADV
Copper Mountain Mining
CUM.TO
96.1
$133 SO
CS, ML, TKO, NSU
Labrador Iron Mines
LIM.TO
72.9
$4 -LIF.UN, NML, ADV, CHM
Labrador Iron Ore Royalty
LIF.TO
100.0
$1151 SO
LIM, NML, ADV, CHM
Mercator Minerals Ltd.
ML.TO
85.4
$9 -CS, TKO, CUM, TCM
Nevada Copper Corp.
NCU.TO
42.7
$116 SO
CUM, TKO
Nevsun Resources Ltd.
NSU.TO
94.0
$966 SP
TKO, CUM, CS, HBM
New Millennium Iron
NML.TO
73.9
$30 SP
LIF.UN, LIM, ADV, CHM
Royal Nickel Corporation
RNX.TO
85.5
$35 SO
HNC, MNB
Taseko Mines Limited
TKO.TO
98.0
$231 SP
CS, CUM, ML, NSU, LUN
Trevali Mining
TV.TO
100.0
$295 SP
NSU, MILPOC1-LM, HBM, LUN
Vale
VALE.P
59.2 US$38908 SO
BHP.AU, RIO.AU, FMG.AU, AAL.LN
Orest Wowkodaw, CPA, CA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-4526
First Quantum Minerals
FM.TO
98.3
$7657 SP
FCX, SCCO, TCK.B
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
FCX.N
98.4 US$20349 SO
FM, TCKB, SCCO
Grupo México, SAB de
GMEXICOB.MX40.0MXN 347211 SP
FCX-N, ANTO-L, FM, IMN, VED-L
HudBay Minerals Inc.
HBM.TO
99.9
$1766 FS
CS, III, LUN, TKO, TCM
Imperial Metals
III.TO
58.5
$670 SP
CS, HBM, LUN, NSU, TKO
Lundin Mining Corporation
LUN.TO
87.3
$3021 FS
CS, HBM, TKO, TCM
Mirabela Nickel Limited
MNB.TO
88.4
$13 -CUM, ML, NSU, RIO, TKO
Sherritt International
S.TO
100.0
$653 SO
CS, HBM, LUN
Southern Copper
SCCO.N
17.5 US$24785 SO
FM, FCX-N, ANTO-L
Teck Resources Limited
TCKb.TO
98.0
$10694 SO
FM
Thompson Creek Metals
TCM.TO
20.3
$404 SU
CS, HBM, LUN, TKO
Alfonso Salazar, MSc (Scotiabank Inverlat) +52 (55) 5123 2869
CAP
CAP.SN
40.0CLP 407082 SU
ASR.SJ, MIN.AU,FXPO.LN, KIO.SJ
Compañía Minera Milpo
MILPOC1.LM 50.1 PEN 2288 SO
VOLCABC1-LM, LUN, HBM
Grupo México, SAB de
GMEXICOB.MX40.0MXN 347211 SP
FCX-N, ANTO-L, FM, IMN, VED-L
Southern Copper
SCCO.N
17.5 US$24785 SO
FM, FCX-N, ANTO-L
Ternium
TX.N
24.4 US$3445 SO
USIM5 BZ, GGBR4 BZ, SIMEC-B
Usinas Siderúrgicas
USIM5.SA
37.2 BRL 3569 SP
TX-N, GGBR4-SA, SIMECB-MX
Vale
VALE.P
59.2 US$38908 SO
BHP.AU, RIO.AU, FMG.AU, AAL.LN
Ben Isaacson, MBA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-5310
Cameco Corporation
CCO.TO
99.9
$7506 SO
AREVA-FR, EFR, PDN, URE
Denison Mines Corp.
DML.TO
87.7
$571 SO
PDN, URZ, UEX, URRE-Q
Paladin Energy Ltd.
PDN.TO
96.9
$432 SP
AREVA-FR, CCO, EFR, URE
Uranium Participation
U.TO
100.0
$643 SP
DML, PDN, EFR
Paul Figueroa Mantero, MSc, MBA (Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa SA) +511-211-5918
Compañía Minera Milpo
MILPOC1.LM 50.1 PEN 2288 SO
VOLCABC1-LM, LUN, HBM
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
Iron ore (100%)
Copper 91%, zinc 3%, silver 3%, moly 2%, other metals 1% (based on 2015E)
Iron ore (100%)
Copper 85%, gold 12%, and silver 3% (based on 2015E)
Iron ore (100%)
IOC Royalties and Commissions; IOC Equity Interest
Copper 56%, molybdenum 43% silver 1% (2014E)
Copper 93%, gold 5%, silver 2% (based on life-of-mine estimates)
Copper 92%, gold 3%, silver 5% (based on 2015E)
Iron ore (100%)
Nickel 100% (based on life-of-mine estimate)
Copper 94%, molybdenum 5%, silver 1% (based on 2015E)
Zinc 59%, lead 23%, silver 18% (based on 2015E)
Ferrous Minerals (74%), Base metals (16%), Coal (2%), Fertilizers (6%) & Other (2%)
Iron ore price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Copper price; other by-product metal prices, USD/CAD, and USD/MXN rates
Iron ore price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Copper price; gold and silver (by-products) prices; and USD/CAD exchange rate
Iron ore price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Iron ore price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Molybdenum price, copper price, and silver (by-product) price
Copper price, and to a lesser extent gold and silver (by-product) prices
Copper price, gold price, silver price
Iron ore price, USD/CAD exchange rate.
Nickel price
Copper price, molybdenm (by-product) price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Zinc price, CAD/USD
Iron ore and base metals (nickel, copper) prices, foreign exchange rates
Copper, Nickel, and Gold
Copper, oil & gas, gold, molybdenum
Metals (Copper, Molybdenum, Silver, and Other) and Transportation
Copper, Zinc, Gold
Copper, Gold, Silver, Molybdenum
Copper, Zinc, Cobalt, Nickel
Nickel, Copper, Platinum, Cobalt
Nickel, Cobalt, Oil, Natural Gas, Electricity
Copper, Molybdenum, Silver, Zinc, and Gold
Coal, Copper, Zinc
Copper, gold, molybdenum
Commodity prices, currency exchange rates, development and operational execution
Copper price and cash cost, oil price and production cost, gold price
Copper, molybdenum, and silver prices and MXN/USD and PEN/USD exchange rates
Commodity prices, exchange rates, development and operational execution
Commodity prices, exchange rates, development and operating execution
Commodity prices, exchange rates, operating execution
Commodity prices, exchange rates, operational execution
Nickel price, cobalt price, oil price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices, currency exchange rates, development and operational execution
Commodity prices, exchange rates, development and operating execution
Commodity prices, exchange rates, operational execution
Iron Ore (56%), Steel (26%), and Processed Steel (18%)
Zinc, Copper, Lead, Silver
Metals (Copper, Molybdenum, Silver, and Other) and Transportation
Copper, Molybdenum, Silver, Zinc, and Gold
Steel 99% and Iron ore 1%
Steelmaking 71%, steel processing 16%, capital goods 6%, and mining 7% (2013)
Ferrous Minerals (74%), Base metals (16%), Coal (2%), Fertilizers (6%) & Other (2%)
Iron ore prices, steel prices, foreign exchange rate (CLP/USD)
Increasing capacity at Cerro Lindo and capacity to develop greenfield projects.
Copper, molybdenum, and silver prices and MXN/USD and PEN/USD exchange rates
Commodity prices, currency exchange rates, development and operational execution
Iron ore prices, steel prices, energy prices, coal and coke prices.
Steel prices, energy prices, iron-ore prices, coal and coke prices
Iron ore and base metals (nickel, copper) prices, foreign exchange rates
EBITDA: 83% Uranium; 13% Fuel Services; 4% NUKEM.
Valuation: 95% Exploration Assets; 5% Other
100% Uranium
Fund Holdings: 100% Uranium
Uranium supply/demand; uranium prices; CAD/USD
Uranium outlook; exploration and development progress; CAD/USD exchange rate
Uranium supply/demand; uranium prices; F/X rates; geopolitical risk.
Uranium prices (U3O8 and UF6); CAD/USD exchange rate
Zinc, Copper, Lead, Silver
Increasing capacity at Cerro Lindo and capacity to develop greenfield projects.
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
10
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Multiline Retail
Rodrigo Echagaray, MBA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-4405
Cencosud,
CEN.SN
35.0
CLP 4498393 SP
FALAB-SN (SEE)
Ripley Corp
RIP.SN
34.5CLP 575008 SP
CEN-SN, FALAB-SN, HITES-SN
SACI Falabella
FAL.SN
14.0
CLP 10266262 SO
CEN-SE
Patricia A. Baker, MBA, PhD (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 287-4535
Canadian Tire Corporation
CTCa.TO
90.6
$9210 SP
N/A
Dollarama Inc.
DOL.TO
92.4
$7940 SO
DG-N, DLTR-Q, FDO-N, FRED-Q
Hudson’s Bay Company
HBC.TO
76.3
$4369 SO
M-N, JWN-N, TGT-N, SHLD-Q
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
EBITDA 70% retail, 15% real estate, and 15% retail finance
Retail sales 76%, Financial services sales 24%
Revenues 2013: 84% retail, 12% financial services, 4% real estate.
SSS growth rates, store openings
Same-store-sales, sales floor space growth
SSS growth rates, new store deployments, loan portfolio growth.
50% CTR (incl. PartSource), 18% Petroleum, 14% FGL, 9% Mark’s, 9% CTFS
49% General Merchandise, 37% Consumables, 14% Seasonal
33% Hudsons Bay, 43% Saks, 20% Lord & Taylor, 4% Home Outfitters
Same-store sales by banner, fuel volume growth
Same-store sales growth, new store openings
Same-store sales growth by banner, consumer spending
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
11
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Oil & Gas - E&P
Patrick Bryden, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (403) 213-7750
ARC Resources Ltd.
ARX.TO
100.0
$7505 SO
Argent Energy Trust
AET_u.TO
99.0
$40 SU
Baytex Energy Corporation
BTE.TO
100.0
$3853 SO
Bonavista Energy
BNP.TO
87.0
$1551 SP
Bonterra Energy Corp.
BNE.TO
100.0
$1350 SP
Cardinal Energy Ltd.
CJ.TO
100.0
$799 SO
Crescent Point Energy
CPG.TO
100.0
$14285 SO
Eagle Energy Trust
EGL_u.TO
95.7
$68 SP
Enerplus Corporation
ERF.TO
100.0
$2894 SP
Freehold Royalties Ltd.
FRU.TO
100.0
$1477 SP
Northern Blizzard
NBZ.TO
32.6
$800 SP
Parallel Energy Trust
PLT_u.TO
99.2
$38 SU
Pengrowth Energy
PGF.TO
100.0
$2172 SO
Penn West Exploration
PWT.TO
100.0
$1376 SU
Perpetual Energy Inc.
PMT.TO
100.0
$192 SU
Peyto Exploration
PEY.TO
100.0
$5186 SO
Vermilion Energy Inc.
VET.TO
100.0
$6131 SO
Zargon Oil &
ZAR.TO
100.0
$122 SP
William S. Lee, P.Eng. (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (403) 213-7331
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
AAV.TO
94.1
$986 SO
BlackPearl Resources Inc.
PXX.TO
89.0
$370 SU
Legacy Oil + Gas Inc.
LEG.TO
95.8
$437 SP
LGX Oil + Gas Inc.
OIL.V
82.5
$12 SP
Lightstream Resources
LTS.TO
93.6
$305 SU
Long Run Exploration Ltd.
LRE.TO
84.1
$255 SP
NuVista Energy Ltd.
NVA.TO
67.7
$1181 SO
Paramount Resources Ltd.
POU.TO
60.8
$3740 SO
Raging River Exploration
RRX.TO
73.0
$1679 SO
Seven Generations Energy
VII.TO
61.2
$5465 SO
Spyglass Resources Corp.
SGL.TO
98.5
$49 SU
TORC Oil & Gas Ltd.
TOG.TO
68.0
$1122 SO
Trilogy Energy Corp.
TET.TO
30.7
$960 SP
Twin Butte Energy Ltd.
TBE.TO
86.5
$324 SP
Whitecap Resources Inc.
WCP.TO
87.7
$3432 SO
Cameron Bean, (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (403) 218-6786
Arcan Resources Ltd.
ARN.V
62.0
$5 SU
Bellatrix Exploration
BXE.TO
91.1
$570 SP
Birchcliff Energy Ltd.
BIR.TO
69.7
$1275 SO
Cequence Energy Ltd.
CQE.TO
67.1
$224 SP
Crew Energy Inc.
CR.TO
80.3
$778 SP
Delphi Energy Corp.
DEE.TO
75.6
$226 SP
Kelt Exploration Ltd.
KEL.TO
69.8
$875 SO
Painted Pony Petroleum
PPY.TO
64.0
$764 SO
Pinecrest Energy Inc.
PRY.V
60.2
$3 SU
RMP Energy Inc.
RMP.TO
89.3
$659 SO
Spartan Energy Corp.
SPE.V
69.2
$858 SO
Surge Energy Inc.
SGY.TO
97.0
$713 SP
Jason Bouvier, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (403) 213-7345
Tourmaline Oil Corp.
TOU.TO
79.5
$8421 SO
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
ARX, BNP
ARX, TLM
BNE
2014E Production Mix: 40% Gas, 60% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 36% Gas, 64% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 13% Gas, 87% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 64% Gas, 36% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 26% Gas, 74% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 10% Gas, 90% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 9% Gas, 91% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production mix of 100% oil and liquids.
2014E Production Mix: 54% Gas, 46% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 34% Gas, 66% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 6% Gas, 94% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 36% Gas, 64% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 46% Gas, 54% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 35% Gas, 65% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 92% Gas, 18% Oil and Liquids
2015E Production Mix: 90% Gas, 10% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 34% Gas, 66% Oil and Liquids
2014E Production Mix: 36% Gas, 64% Oil and Liquids
Commodity prices, production growth, USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices, drilling program success, access to capital resources
Crude oil price, natural gas price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices; production growth; USD/CAD exchange
Commodity prices, production growth, USD/CAD exchange rate
Crude oil price, natural gas price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Crude oil price, natural gas price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices, Drilling & development success, Access to capital resources
Commodity prices; production growth; USD/CAD exchange
Commodity prices; production growth; USD/CAD exchange
Crude oil price, natural gas price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices, Drilling & development success, Access to capital resources
Commodity prices; production growth; USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices, production growth, USD/CAD exchange rate
Natural gas price, USD/CAD exchange rate
Crude oil and natural gas prices; CAD/USD exchange rate; drilling program success
Commodity prices, FX rates, Production growth, Execution
Crude oil and natural gas prices; CAD/USD exchange rate; drilling program success
BIR, DEE, CQE, KEL, PPY
TBE, RE, BTE, Cavalier
CPG, LTS, RRX
TOG, RRX, RMP, ARN
CPG, LEG, TOG, WCP, BNE
BXE, CR, NVA, SGL, TOG
AAV, BIR, BXE, CR, POU, KEL
NVA, AAV, TET, BIR
ARN, LEG, PRY, SGY, TOG
AAV, BIR, NVA, POU, TET, TOU
TOG, SGY, BXE, WCP, TBE
CR, LEG, OIL-V, PRY, RRX, SGY
RMP, KEL, BIR, AAV
WCP, TOG, ZAR, SGY, SGL
SGY, TOG, RRX, TBE, ZAR, BNE
Production: 100% Natural Gas (100% Canadian)
Production: 100% Heavy Oil (100% Canadian)
Production: 85% Oil, 15% Natural Gas
65% Oil, 35% Natural Gas
Production: 80% Oil, 20% Natural Gas
Production: 50% Natural Gas, 50% Oil and NGLs (100% Canadian)
Production: 70% Natural Gas, 30% Oil (100% Canadian)
Production: 80% Natural Gas, 20% Oil (100% Canadian)
Production: 100% Oil (100% Canadian)
Roughly 50%-55% Condensate and NGLs, 45%-50% Natural Gas
Production: 50% Natural Gas, 50% Oil & Liquids (100% Canadian)
Production: 80% Oil, 20% Natural Gas (100% Canadian)
Production: 60% Natural Gas, 40% Oil and NGLs (100% Canadian)
Production: 90% Oil, 10% Natural Gas (100% Canadian)
Production: 70% Oil, 30% Natural Gas (100% Canadian)
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Heavy oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; exploration program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success.
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices; drilling program success
PRY-V, SOG-V, SPE-V, TVE-V
AAV, BIR, CR, NVA, PEY
AAV, CR, NVA, POU, PPY
AAV, BIR, DEE, NVA, PPY
AAV, BIR, BXE, NVA, POU
AAV, CQE, KEL, NVA, PPY
CQE, DEE, PPY, RMP, RRX
AAV, CQE, DEE, KEL, NVA
ARN-V, SOG-V, SPE-V, TVE-V
DTX, KEL, RRX, SPE, TVE-V
DTX, RMP, RRX, TOG, TVE-V
BNE, LRE, LTS, TOG, WCP
Production: 98% Oil, 2% Natural Gas
Production: 65% Natural Gas, 35% Oil and NGLs
Production: 85% Natural Gas, 15% Oil and NGLs
85% Natural Gas, 15% Oil and NGLs
Production: 50% Natural Gas, 50% Oil and NGLs
Production: 75% Natural Gas, 25% Oil and NGLs
Production: 75% Natural Gas, 25% Oil and NGLs
Production: 85% Natural Gas, 15% Oil and NGLs
Production: 96% Oil, 4% Natural Gas
Production: 65% Oil and NGLs, 35% Natural Gas
Production: 90% Oil and NGLs, 10% Natural Gas
Production: 85% Oil and NGLs, 15% Natural Gas
Oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success.
Oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success
Crude oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success, financial leverage
Oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success
Oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success.
Oil and natural gas prices. Drilling program success.
Oil and natural gas prices. Drilling program success.
Oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success.
AAV, ARX, BIR, PRQ, TET
Production: 85% Natural Gas, 15% Oil
Oil and natural gas prices, Drilling program success
ERF, BNP, PWT
PLT.UN, EGL.UN
BNP, CPG, PWT
ARX, ERF
CPG, ZAR
BTE, CPG, PWT
BTE, PBN, PWT
AET.UN, PLT.UN
ARX, PWT, BNP
BTE, BNP, CPG
AET.UN, EGL.UN
ARX, ERF, PWT
ARX, PGF, ERF
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
12
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Oil & Gas - Integrated and E&P
Jason Bouvier, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (403) 213-7345
Athabasca Oil Corporation
ATH.TO
88.0
$840 SP
Canadian Natural
CNQ.TO
100.0
$42942 SO
Canadian Oil Sands
COS.TO
100.0
$4938 SU
Cenovus Energy Inc.
CVE.TO
100.0
$19260 SO
Connacher Oil and
CLL.TO
89.0
$22 SU
Encana Corporation
ECA.N
100.0 US$10215 SP
Husky Energy Inc.
HSE.TO
30.5
$27660 SP
Imperial Oil Limited
IMO.TO
30.4
$43216 SP
MEG Energy Corp.
MEG.TO
61.0
$4907 SO
Suncor Energy Inc.
SU.TO
100.0
$55898 SO
Talisman Energy Inc.
TLM.N
100.0 US$7912 T
Patrick Bryden, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (403) 213-7750
PrairieSky Royalty Ltd.
PSK.TO
100.0
$4480 SO
Oil & Gas - International E&P
Gavin Wylie, (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (403) 213-7333
Africa Oil Corp.
AOI.V
100.0
$900
Alvopetro Energy Ltd.
alv.v
89.3
$40
Bankers Petroleum Ltd.
BNK.TO
100.0
$830
Calvalley Petroleum Inc.
CVIa.TO
76.4
$68
Canacol Energy Ltd.
CNE.TO
100.0
$427
GeoPark Limited
GPRK.N
45.0
US$233
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.
GTE.TO
100.0
$908
Lundin Petroleum
LUPE.ST
76.0 SEK 36084
Niko Resources Ltd.
NKO.TO
86.2
$23
Oryx Petroleum
OXC.TO
36.6
$525
Pacific Rubiales Energy
PRE.TO
70.8
$1530
Parex Resources Inc.
PXT.TO
85.0
$1071
ShaMaran Petroleum Corp.
SNM.V
86.3
$89
TransGlobe Energy
TGL.TO
78.5
$290
WesternZagros Resources
WZR.V
69.1
$362
SO
SP
SO
SP
SP
SO
SP
SP
SU
SO
SU
SO
SP
SP
SP
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
STP, MEG, CLL
APA-N, DVN-N, ECA
SU, IMO
IMO, HSE, SU
MEG, ATH
DVN-N, CHK-N, EOG-N
IMO
VLO-N, SU, HSE
CLL, CVE, ATH, STP
MRO-N, IMO, HSE, HES-N
CNQ, APC-N
Undeveloped oil sands leases and deep basin light oil
Production: 67% Crude Oil, 33% Natural Gas
Production: 100% Crude Oil
Production 70-30 split between oil & natural gas, with refining operations
Production: 100% Crude
Production: 30% Crude Oil and Liquids, 70% Natural Gas
Production: 70% Crude Oil, 30% Natural Gas
Production: 83% Crude, 17% Natural Gas
100% oil
Production: 99% Crude, 1% Natural Gas
Production: 40% Crude Oil, 60% Natural Gas
Commodity prices, resource development, production growth, USD/CAD FX rate
Commodity prices, production growth, USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices, production growth, USD/CAD exchange
Commodity prices, production growth, USD/CAD exchange rate, heavy oil differential
Commodity prices, exchange rate, crack spreads
Commodity prices, production growth, USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices, production growth, heavy oil differential, USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices, production growth, 3-2-1 crack spreads, USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices, resource development, production growth, USD/CAD FX rate
Commodity prices, production growth, heavy oil differential, USD/CAD exchange rate
Commodity prices, production growth, USD/CAD exchange rate
FRU-T, FNV-T
55% Oil, 45% Gas
Commodity Prices, 3rd Party Drilling Activity, Interest Rates
WZR ,SNM ,TLW,OXC,AOQ-AU
AOI, OXC, WZR, PXT, CNE, GTE
NKO, CVI.A, TGL, PRE
NXY, HOC, TGL, OXC, WZR
PXT, GTE, PRE, GPRK, PZE
CNE, GTE, PXT
PRE, PXT, CNE, GPRK, ECP
TLW.LN, PMO.LN, DNO.OS
TLW.LN, TGL, POE, LUP
WZR ,SNM ,TLW,GENL.LN
PMG, GTE, ALE, PXT, ECP
GTE, PRE, CNE, PTA, GPRK
OXC, WZR, GKP.LN, DNO.OS, AOI
BNK, SDX, CVI, DNO.OS
OXC, SNM, GKP.LN, GENL.LN
Exploration / (Kenya, Ethiopia, Mali)
Exploration (Brazil)
100% crude oil production; Albania
100% Crude Oil Production; Yemen
78% crude oil / 22% gas production: Colombia / Ecuador
Oil/Gas in Colombia, Chile, Brazil, and Argentina
Oil/Gas in Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Argentina
>85% Crude Oil Production: Norway / Malaysia / France / Netherlands
95% Natural Gas Production / 5% Crude Production; India, Bangladesh, Indonesia
Exploration / (Middle East , West Africa)
Crude oil (92%) / natural gas (8%) Production: Colombia / Peru
100% crude oil production (Colombia)
Exploration & Development; Kurdistan
Oil and Gas in Egypt and Yemen
Exploration & Development; Kurdistan
Exploration success, political events in Africa, crude oil prices
Exploration success, political events in Brazil, crude oil prices
Production and reserve growth, Brent crude oil prices
Execution; Production Growth; Exploration; Brent Crude Prices
Exploration success, Crude Price,
Exploration/operation success, commodity prices
Execution on major projects, exploration success and commodity prices
Successful Exploration and Development, Brent crude price.
Execution; Production Growth; Exploration; Commodity Prices
Exploration success, political events in Africa and Middle East, crude oil prices
Execution on its major heavy oil development, crude oil prices, exploration success
Exploration success, crude oil prices
Exploration success, political events in Kurdistan, crude oil prices
Execution on secondary recovery projects, exploration success and commodity prices
Exploration success, political events in Kurdistan, crude oil prices
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
13
February 5, 2015
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
Oilfield Services
Vladislav C. Vlad, MBA, P.Eng. (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (403) 213-7759
Black Diamond Group Ltd.
BDI.TO
100.0
$427 SP
HNL, ACO/X, CLH-N, OIS-N
Calfrac Well Services
CFW.TO
100.0
$873 SP
TCW, HAL-N, SLB-N, BHI-N, FRC
Canadian Energy Services
CEU.TO
100.0
$1426 FS
BRY, SES, CRR-N, NR-N, SLB-N
CanElson Drilling Inc.
CDI.TO
100.0
$343 SP
PD, TDG, SVY, NBR-N, WRG, ESI
Canyon Services Group
FRC.TO
100.0
$564 SP
CFW, TCW, HAL-N, SLB-N, BHI-N
Cathedral Energy Services
CET.TO
100.0
$94 SP
PHX, PD, PSI, ESI, BHI-N, HAL-N
Enerflex Ltd.
EFX.TO
100.0
$1338 SO
EXH-N, GTLS-O, TOT-T, NGS-N
Ensign Energy Services
ESI.TO
100.0
$1601 SU
PD, TDG, SVY, NBR-N, PTEN-N
Horizon North Logistics
HNL.TO
100.0
$240 SP
BDI, ACO/X, CLH-N, OIS-N
Newalta Corporation
NAL.TO
100.0
$810 SO
SES, NES-N, CLH-N, ECOL-Q
PHX Energy Services Corp.
PHX.TO
100.0
$279 SP
CET, PD, PSI, ESI, BHI-N, HAL-N
Precision Drilling Corp.
PD.TO
100.0
$2169 SO
ESI, TDG, SVY, NBR-N, WRG
Savanna Energy Services
SVY.TO
100.0
$244 SU
PD, WRG, ESI, NBR-N, PTEN-N
Secure Energy Services
SES.TO
100.0
$2221 SO
NAL, GEI, CEU, KEY, CRR-N
Total Energy Services
TOT.TO
100.0
$445 SP
ESI, EFX, PD, SVY, BAS-N, CAM-N
Trican Well Service Ltd.
TCW.TO
100.0
$840 SP
CFW, HAL, SLB-N, BHI-N, FRC
Trinidad Drilling Ltd.
TDG.TO
100.0
$656 SO
PD, ESI, SVY, NBR-N, PTEN-N
Western Energy Services
WRG.TO
100.0
$458 SO
PD, TDG, SVY, NBR-N, CDI, ESI
61% Structures, 24% Logistics, 9% Energy Services, 6% International
43% Canada, 40% United States, 10% Russia, 7% Latin America
37% Canada, 63% United States
51% Canada, 49% United States and Mexico
Geographic: 100% Canada
45% Canada, 55% United States
37% Canada/Northern U.S., 36% Southern U.S., 27% International
32% Canada, 42% United States, 26% International
83% Camps & Catering, 17% Matting
29% New Markets, 24% Oilfield, 47% Industrial
39% Canada, 48% United States, 13% International
84% Contract drilling, 16% Completion and production services
72% Contract Drilling, 28% Oilfield Services
97% Canada, 3% United States
16% Contract Drilling, 32% Rentals and Transportation, 52% Gas Compression
48% Canada, 36% United States, 16% Russia
38% Canada, 62% United States and International
91% Canada, 9% United States
Commodity prices, play economics, LNG export, and oil sand development
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Natural gas drilling activity
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, LNG export, and oil sand development
Oil & gas development, industrial production, commodity prices (i.e., oil, gas, lead)
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, Play economics, Technology, Unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, regulation, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Commodity prices, play economics, technology, unconventional resource exposure
Paper & Forest Products
Benoit Laprade, CPA, CA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 287-3627
Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd.
ANS.TO
45.0
$853 T
NBD, LPX-N
Canfor Corporation
CFP.TO
100.0
$3902 SO
CFF, IFP.A, WEF, WFT
Canfor Pulp Products Inc.
CFX.TO
49.6
$1118 SO
TMB, FBR-N, MERC-Q
Cascades Inc.
CAS.TO
68.0
$779 SP
GP-N, KMB-N, SSCC-Q, PKG-N
Domtar Corporation
UFS.N
100.0 US$2569 SO
RFP, IP-N, GLT-N, NP-N, TMB
Empresas CMPC
CAR.SN
40.0
CLP 3878171 SP
FBR-N; SUZB5-SA; CFX
Empresas Copec
COPEC.SN
30.3
CLP 9268998 SO
CMPC-SN; FBR-N; CSAN3-SA
Fibria Celulose
FBR.N
40.3 US$6946 SP
SUZB5-SA, CMPC-SN
Fortress Paper Ltd.
FTP.TO
83.0
$26 SU
TMB, MERC-Q, RYN-N
Interfor Corporation
IFP.TO
94.2
$1529 SO
CFF, CFP, WFT, WEF
Louisiana-Pacific
LPX.N
100.0 US$2396 SO
ANS, NBD
Norbord Inc.
NBD.TO
47.0
$1468 SO
ANS, LPX-N
Resolute Forest Products
RFP.N
100.0 US$1683 SU
TMB, UFS, IP-N, CYT
Tembec Inc.
TMB.TO
100.0
$278 SP
CFX, MERC-Q, FBR-N, UFS
West Fraser Timber
WFT.TO
80.0
$6081 SO
CFF, CFP, IFP.A, WEF
Western Forest Products
WEF.TO
100.0
$1027 SO
CFF, CFP, IFP.A, WFT
Weyerhaeuser Company
WY.N
100.0 US$18799 SP
ADN, PCL-N, PCH-Q, RYN-N
100% OSB
69% Lumber, 31% Pulp & Paper
83% NBSK Pulp, 17% Kraft Paper
33% Boxboard, 17% Containerboard, 12% Specialty Papers, 19% Tissue, 19% Fine
90% Pulp and Paper, 10% Personal Care
EBITDA 2013A: 49% Pulp, 22% Tissue, 17% Paper, 12% Forestry
EBITDA 2013A: Forestry 57%, Fuels 42%, Fishing 1%
100% Pulp
57% Security Paper, 43% Market Pulp
80% Lumber, 13% Logs, 7% Wood Chips
51% OSB, 28% Siding, 13% EWP, 8% South America
100% Panels: 65% North America, 35% Europe
33% Newsprint, 31% Specialty Papers, 24% Market Pulp, 13% Wood Products
28% Specialty Cellulose Pulp, 26% Forest Products, 26% Paper Pulp, 20% Paper
64% Lumber, 13% Panels, 23% Pulp and Paper
69% Lumber, 25% Logs, 6% Other
Pro Forma Asset Mix: 68% Timberlands, 20% Cellulose Fibres, 12% Wood Products
North Central OSB prices and volumes
SPF lumber price; pulp price; USD/CAD exchange rate
NBSK pulp prices; USD/CAD exchange rate; kraft paper prices; wood chip prices
Box prices; containerboard prices; OCC prices; tissue prices; USD/CAD exch. rate
Price of uncoated freesheet, pulp; USD/CAD exchange rate
Global pulp prices and volumes; FX
Commodity prices, exchange rates, global economic conditions
Global pulp prices and demand; FX
Dissolving pulp prices and volumes; FX rates
Hemlock & cedar prices; SPF lumber prices; log prices; USD/CAD exchange rate
North Central OSB prices; U.S. housing starts; FX (USD/CAD)
North Central OSB prices; non-structural panel prices
Price of newsprint, coated & uncoated groundwood, pulp, lumber; USD/CAD FX rate
Market pulp prices, lumber prices, paper prices, USD/CAD exchange rate
Lumber, plywood, MDF prices; pulp and paper prices; USD/CAD exchange rate
Lumber prices and shipments; log prices and shipments; foreign exchange
Commodity prices
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
14
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Real Estate & REITs
Pammi Bir, CPA, CA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7218
Agellan Commercial REIT
ACR_u.TO
84.0
$228 SP
AX.UN, CUF.UN, HR.UN, MRT.UN
Calloway REIT
CWT_u.TO
78.6
$4353 SP
CRR.UN, FCR, REI.UN, CHP.UN
Canadian Real Estate Inv.
REF_u.TO 100.0
$3527 SO
CUF-U, MRT-U, REI-U, HR-U
Chartwell Retirement
CSH_u.TO 100.0
$2240 SO
EXE, LW, ACC
Choice Properties REIT
CHP_u.TO
12.1
$4244 SP
CRR.UN, CWT.UN, REI.UN, FCR
Cominar REIT
CUF_u.TO
95.1
$3269 SP
MRT-U, AX-U, REF-U, HR-U
Crombie REIT
CRR_u.TO
58.5
$1775 SP
CHP.UN, CWT.UN, FCR, REI.UN
Dream Global REIT
DRG_u.TO
96.2
$1026 SP
AP-U, AX-U, CUF-U, D-U, REF-U
Dream Industrial REIT
DIR_u.TO
75.7
$702 SP
GRT.UN, AAR.UN, WIR.U
First Capital Realty Inc.
FCR.TO
50.3
$4349 SP
CRR-U, CHP-U, CWT-U, REI-U
Granite REIT
GRT_u.TO 100.0
$2131 SO
DIR.UN, AAR.UN, WIR.U
Leisureworld Senior Care
LW.TO
100.0
$532 SP
CSH.UN, EXE
Morguard REIT
MRT_u.TO
55.1
$1156 SP
AX-U, CUF-U, REF-U, HR-U
Pure Industrial REIT
AAR_u.TO
98.7
$956 SP
GRT.UN, DIR.UN, WIR.U
RioCan REIT
REI_u.TO
100.0
$9337 SP
CRR.UN, CWT.UN, FCR, CHP.UN
WPT Industrial REIT
WIRu.TO
52.7
US$407 SO
GRT.UN, AAR.UN, DIR.UN
Mario Saric, CPA, CA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7824
Allied Properties REIT
AP_u.TO
100.0
$3029 SO
AX.UN, D.UN, HR.UN
Artis REIT
AX_u.TO
100.0
$2136 SP
AP.UN, D.UN, MRT.UN, HR.UN
Boardwalk REIT
BEI_u.TO
75.1
$2903 SP
CAR.UN, NPR.UN, KMP
Brookfield Asset
BAM.N
83.0 US$32663 SO
MBL-AU; BX-N; FIG-N; KKR-N
Brookfield Canada Office
BOX_u.TO
16.7
$2760 SP
BPO, BXP-N, SLG-N, VNO-N
Brookfield Property
BPY.N
32.3 US$17868 SO
BXP-N, SLG-N, VNO-N, SPG-N
CAP REIT
CAR_u.TO 100.0
$3145 SP
BEI.UN, NPR.UN, KMP, IIP.UN
Dream Office REIT
D_u.TO
99.6
$3010 SP
AP.UN, AX.UN, REF.UN, HR.UN
H&R REIT
HR_u.TO
98.1
$7293 SP
CUF.UN, AP.UN, REF.UN, D.UN
InnVest REIT
INN_u.TO
100.0
$726 SP
HLC-TSE
InterRent Real Estate
IIP_u.TO
100.0
$368 R
R
Killam Properties Inc.
KMP.TO
100.0
$675 SP
BEI.UN, CAR.UN, NPR.UN, IIP.UN
Northern Property REIT
NPR_u.TO 100.0
$793 SP
BEI.UN, CAR.UN, KMP, IIP.UN
NorthWest Healthcare
NWH_u.TO
73.9
$467 SP
AP.UN, AX.UN, D.UN, BOX.UN
Francisco Suarez, (Scotiabank Inverlat) +52 (55) 9179 5209
Fibra
FUNO11.MX 72.3MXN 130190 SO
TERRA 13-MX; FIBRAMQ 12-MX
Macquarie Mexican REIT
FIBRAMQ12.MX
93.9 MXN 20089 SP
TERRA 13-MX; FUNO 11-MX
Terrafina
TERRA13.MX100.0 MXN 19310 SO
FIBRAMQ 12-MX; FIBRAPL 14-MX
Vesta
VESTA*.MX 79.0 MXN 14929 SO
TERRA 13-MX; FUNO 11-MX
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
69% Office, 29% Industrial, and 2% Retail by NOI
100% Retail
Net Operating Income: 51% Retail, 25% Industrial, 24% Office
Net Operating Income: 64% CDN RH, 25% U.S. RH, 11% CDN LTC
86% Retail, 12% Industrial, 2% Office (based on NOI)
Net Operating Income: 52% Office, 25% Retail, 23% Industrial
Net Operating Income: 89% Retail, 7% Mixed-use, 4% Office
Net Rental Income: 56% Office, 35% Mixed Use, 9% Industrial
100% Industrial
100% Retail
98% Industrial, 2% Office by GLA
Net Operating Income: 76% LTC, 19% RH, 5% Homecare
Net Operating Income: 49% Retail, 47% Office, 4% Industrial
100% Industrial
95% Retail, 5% office
97% Industrial, 3% Office by GLA
Accretive acquisitions, occupancy, same-property NOI growth, net rent per sq.ft.
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft.
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft., same-property NOI growth
Occupancy, rental rates, same-property NOI growth
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft.
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft., same-property NOI growth
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft.
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft., same-property NOI growth, acquisitions
Accretive acquisitions, occupancy, same-property NOI growth, net rent per sq.ft.
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft., same-property NOI growth
Accretive acquisitions, occupancy, same-property NOI growth, net rent per sq.ft.
Occupancy, government funding increases, same property NOI growth
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft., same-property NOI growth
Accretive acquisitions, occupancy, same-property NOI growth, net rent per sq.ft.
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft.
Accretive acquisitions, occupancy, same-property NOI growth, net rent per sq.ft.
GLA: 88% Office, 12% Retail
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft.
52% Office, 24% Retail, 24% Industrial
Occupancy, net rent, new supply
Net Operating Income: 100% Multi-family
Occupancy, rent per suite
AUM: Property (60%), Renewable Energy (11%), Infrastructure (17%), Private Equity (12%)
Office rents, electricity prices, capital deployment, AUM growth, GDP growth
Net Operating Income: 100% Office
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft.
Invested Capital: 62% Office; 34% Retail; 2% Industrial; 2% Multi-family & Hotels
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft., capital recycling
Net Operating Income: 96% Multi-family, 4% MHC
Occupancy, rent per suite
Net Operating Income: 90% Office, 10% Industrial
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft.
Net Operating Income: 49% Office, 37% Retail, 14% Industrial
Occupancy, net rent per sq. ft.
Net Operating Income: 100% Lodging
Occupancy, daily rates, RevPAR
R
R
Net Operating Income: 77% Apartment, 23% Manufactured Home Community
Occupancy, average rent
Net Operating Income: 8% Office, 8% Retail, 84% Multi-family
Occupancy, rent per suite
100% Office
Occupancy, net rent per square foot
Retail 57%; Industrial 28%; and Office 16%
Industrial 70%; Retail 30%
Industrial 100%
Industrial 100%
A pipeline of property under development and acquisition of high-quality assets
Diversification by adding assets in the retail and office space and also in new regions
High-quality and attractive yield, top-notch management, and attractive valuation
Good locations and superb track record in property development
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
15
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Software & Services
Paul Steep, MBA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-4310
Absolute Software
ABT.TO
89.3
$397
Catamaran Corporation
CTRX.O
99.5 US$10927
CGI Group Inc.
GIBa.TO
90.0
$15853
Computer Modelling Group
CMG.TO
100.0
$979
Constellation Software
CSU.TO
57.5
$7971
Lumenpulse Inc.
LMP.TO
48.5
$368
MacDonald, Dettwiler
MDA.TO
72.0
$3356
NexJ Systems Inc.
NXJ.TO
62.8
$29
Open Text Corporation
OTEX.O
68.9 US$7250
The Descartes Systems
DSG.TO
63.0
$1447
Thomson Reuters
TRI.TO
45.5
$39821
Andres Coello, (Scotiabank Inverlat) +52 (55) 5123 2852
Totvs
TOTS3.SA
72.4 BRL 5934
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
SO
SP
SO
SO
SP
SP
SO
SP
SO
SO
SP
CRM-N, ULTI-Q, RNOW-Q
CVS-N, ESRX-Q, EME
ACN-Q, ACS-Q, CSC-Q, EDS-Q
HAL-N, SLB-N, EMR-N, CRM-N
TYL-N, MMS-N, SGE-L
ACUITY BRANDS, PHILLIPS
EDS-N, LMT-N, RTN-N, FDF-N
CRM-N, ORCL-Q, MSFT-Q, IBM-N
IBM-N, IWOV-Q, VIGN-Q
TRMB-Q; MANH-Q, SPSC-Q
ADVS, FDS, IDC, REL-LN
85% U.S. sales contracts. 93% Commercial (60% Theft Mgmt , 33% Device Mgmt)
About 65% of revenues recurring; 96% of revenue from U.S.
56% Outsourcing, 44% Systems Integration and Consulting
80% Annuity/Maintenance, 12% Perpetual Licences, 8% Professional Services
8% Licence, 22% Services, 11% Hardware, 59% Maintenance
77% LMP-Owned Products 23% Other Manufacturers
73% Communications, 27% Surveillance and Intelligence
8% Licence, 70% Professional Service, 22% Support
32% Licence, 44% Support, 24% Service
8% Licences, 92% Services
2013 Rev.: 54% Financial & Risk, 27% Legal, 10% Tax & Accounting, 8% IP & Science
Increased focus on data security, leveraging OEM partnerships
U.S. health-care spending on prescription drugs
Capital spending, outsourcing, employment growth, M&A
Growth In EOR, client penetration, R&D expertise, renewed product suite
Capital deployed on acquisition, M&A pipeline, organic growth
New Building Construction and Renovation Projects
Capital spending, new products, employment growth, M&A
Growth of CRM spending, new products and geographic markets
Capital spending, new products, employment growth, M&A
Organic growth (e.g., global trade volume, custom regulations), M&A pipeline
Integration synergies, integration cost performance, adjusted EBITDA margin
SP
LINX3-SA, ORCL-N, SAP-DE
48.7% Mantainance, 29.7% Services, 21.6% Licence Fees
ERP penetration, average ticket, margins
49% Energy, 19% Mining; 32% Infrastructure
Gross Billings: Air Canada 19%, Amex 10%, CIBC 35%, LMG 29%, Other 7%
Drainage Solutions: 36%; Precast Concrete Solutions: 64%
Gross Profit: 32% New Vehicles; 31% Finance; 29% Parts & Srv.; 8% Used Vehicles
85% US: 15% Canada
Year-round: 36%; Seasonal: 36%; Propulsion Systems: 12%; PAC: 16%
45% Juvenile, 32% Home Furnishing (RTA), 23% Recreational/Leisure (Bikes)
Commercial real estate, residential real estate, property services
Wholesale Distributors 60%, Retail 40%
Military: 55%; Commercial 45%
Health care and hospitality segments
100% Water Treatment
76% Kitchen & Furniture Manufacturers, 24% Home Improvement Retailers
90% Do-it-yourselfers (DIY), 10% Contractors
55% Metal Service Centres, 32% Energy Sector, 13% Steel Import/Export
24% Oil & Gas.; 19% Infra; 16%: Power; 16%: M&M; 13% O&M; 8% ICI; Other: 4%
40% Environ., 22% Buildings, 15% Industrial, 12% Trans., 11% Urban Land
25% Automotive Canada, 75% Automotive USA
Vicwest Building Product: 60%; Westeel: 40%
National GDP growth, political conditions, government spending, and commodities
GDP, disposable income, frequent flyer household penetration
Spending on public infrastructure; residential and commercial construction
Acquisitions, unemployment levels, housing starts
North American GDP, vehicles usage, repair claims
Disposable income; unusual seasonal weather; time spent on leisure activities
Global GDP, retail environment, raw material prices (resin, steel & particleboard)
Commercial real estate property values, homeownership rate, renovation spending
Market share penetration, capacity expansion, apparel demand
military spending; commercial aviation industry profitability
Maintaining and securing long-term contracts; extending core services to new markets
Municipal spending; Capital spending by oil and gas and electronics industry
North American GDP growth, renovation spending & home improvement demand
Canadian GDP growth, renovation spending & home improvement demand
North American GDP growth, industrial and energy sector activity, steel prices
Global GDP growth, economic and political conditions, government spending
North American GDP growth, economic conditions, government spending
North American GDP growth, vehicle age struc., auto ownership rates & usage
ICI construction, crop volumes, farm income, oil & gas drilling activity
63% Water Heater and HVAC Equipment Rental, 37% Sub-meter
Revenue breakdown: Gaming (66%), Racetrack (3%), Hospitality & Other (31%)
40% Canada, 35% USA, 25% Rest of the world
Retail 62%; Foodservice 38%
Rent increases, attrition, appliance costs, interest rates, Canadian housing market
Growth in amounts wagered; Capacity additions
Disposable income growth; Consumer preferences
Disposable income growth; Food inflation
85% US: 15% Canada
Health care and hospitality segments
North American GDP, vehicles usage, repair claims
Maintaining and securing long-term contracts; extending core services to new markets
Gross Margin: 75% Fuel, 25% Other Refined Products
Fuel margins, crack spreads, general economic conditions, fossil fuel substitutes
Special Situations
Anthony Zicha, (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 350-7748
Aecon Group Inc.
ARE.TO
70.1
$828 SP
BDT.UN, CUQ, STRL-Q, GVA-N
Aimia
AIM.TO
89.5
$2379 SP
ADS-N
Armtec Infrastructure
ARF.TO
95.9
$6 SP
AMN-N, NWPQ-Q, RMIX-Q
AutoCanada Inc.
ACQ.TO
84.5
$960 SO
ABG-N, AN-N, GPI-N, SAH-N
Boyd Group Income Fund
BYD_u.TO
98.6
$772 SO
AAP-N; AZO-N; LKQ-Q; UNS
BRP Inc.
DOO.TO
29.7
$2586 SO
PII-N;ACAT-Q;HOG-N;BC-N
Dorel Industries Inc.
DIIb.TO
80.5
$1234 SP
NWL-N, KARE-N
FirstService Corporation
FSV.TO
93.7
$2463 SO
CBG-N, JLL-N
Gildan Activewear Inc.
GIL.TO
95.4
$8814 SO
HBI-N
Héroux-Devtek Inc.
HRX.TO
71.3
$382 SO
GR-N; MOG.A-N; TGI-N; RNO-T
K-Bro Linen Inc.
KBL.TO
78.9
$393 SO
ABM-N, CTAS-Q, CPG-L, ECL-N
Ovivo Inc.
OVIa.TO
87.8
$93 SP
ANDR-AV, NLC-N, KAI-N
Richelieu Hardware Ltd.
RCH.TO
92.5
$1164 SO
HUG-N, ARG-N, WSO-N
RONA Inc.
RON.TO
99.4
$1489 SP
CTC.A, HD-N, LOW-N, CWX
Russel Metals Inc.
RUS.TO
99.8
$1520 SP
RS-N, SMT, ZEUS-Q
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.
SNC.TO
99.9
$6645 SO
FLR-N, JEC-N, URS-N, STN
Stantec Inc.
STN.TO
99.1
$3078 SO
BN-N, FCN-N, SNC
Uni-Sélect Inc.
UNS.TO
72.7
$693 SO
AAP-N, AZO-N, GPC-N
Vicwest Inc.
VIC.TO
100.0
$221 T
AFT-T, CAM-T, SMT-T
George Doumet, (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 350-7788
EnerCare Inc.
ECI.TO
62.5
$1349 SP
JE
Great Canadian Gaming
GC.TO
60.7
$1385 SO
BYD-N, ASCA-Q, CNTY-Q
Performance Sports Group
PSG.TO
91.8
$1078 SP
ADS-GY, NKE-US, AMEAS-FH
Premium Brands Holdings
PBH.TO
68.2
$567 SP
JJSF-O, GCL-T, SYY-N
Vincent Perri, CPA, CA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 287-4990
Boyd Group Income Fund
BYD_u.TO
98.6
$772 SO
AAP-N; AZO-N; LKQ-Q; UNS
K-Bro Linen Inc.
KBL.TO
78.9
$393 SO
ABM-N, CTAS-Q, CPG-L, ECL-N
Benoit Laprade, CPA, CA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (514) 287-3627
Parkland Fuel Corporation
PKI.TO
97.7
$2005 SP
NYSE: GLP, APU; TSX: SPB
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
16
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Specialized Finance
Jeffery Coles, MBA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7067
Atrium Mortgage
AI.TO
0.0
$304 SO
Firm Capital Mortgage
FC.TO
100.0
$241 SP
MCAN Mortgage Corporation MKP.TO
78.7
$275 SP
Timbercreek Mortgage
TMC.TO
100.0
$336 SO
Timbercreek Senior
MTG.TO
100.0
$272 SP
Trez Capital Mortgage
TZZ.TO
100.0
$138 SP
Trez Capital Senior
TZS.TO
100.0
$61 SP
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
Mortgage assets: Conv. 1st (83%), Conv. non-1st (13%), Non-conv. (4%), Other (0.6%)
Mortgage assets: Conv. 1st (67%), Conv. non-1st (10%), Non-conv. (5%), Other (18%)
Mortgage assets: Corporate (64%), Securitized (36%)
Mortgage assets: 70% 1st mortgages (incl. jr 1st mortgages); 30% non-1st mortgages
Mortgage assets: 1st mortgages (100%) including junior 1st mortgages
Mtge assets; 1st mtges (43%); junior 1st mtges (22%); 2nd mtges (30%); other (5%)
Mortgage assets: first mortgages (85%); junior first mortgages (15%)
Mortgage interest rates; average outstanding mortgages; provision for credit losses
Mortgage interest rates; average outstanding mortgages; provision for credit losses
Mortgage interest rates; average outstanding mortgages; provision for credit losses
Mortgage rates; average outstanding mortgages; credit quality
Mortgage rates; average outstanding mortgages; credit quality
Mortgage rates; average mortgages outstanding; credit quality
Mortgage rates; average mortgages outstanding; credit quality
Gross Profit: 55% Retail; 45% Wholesale;
EBITDA: 83% Uranium; 13% Fuel Services; 4% NUKEM.
Gross Profit: 100% Nitrogen;
Valuation: 95% Exploration Assets; 5% Other
100% Potash (85% MOP; 15% Langbeinite)
EBITDA: 52% Potash; 44% Salt; 4% Complementary Services
100% Methanol Products
100% Uranium
Gross Profit: 57% Potash; 29% Nitrogen; 14% Phosphate
GM: 21% SPN; 23% Potash; 36% Iodine; 13% Lithium; 7% Industrial Chem & Others
Gross Profit: 45% Phosphate; 55% Potash
Fund Holdings: 100% Uranium
EBITDA: 32% Downstream; 60% Upstream; 8% Industrial
Global fertilizer supply/demand, farmer economics, crop prices, biofuels mandates
Uranium supply/demand; uranium prices; CAD/USD
Global nitrogen supply/demand, U.S. farmer economics, crop prices, global biofuels
Uranium outlook; exploration and development progress; CAD/USD exchange rate
U.S. potash supply/demand, U.S. farmer economics, U.S. crop prices, U.S. ethanol
Potash supply/demand, farmer economics, U.S. and European winters, biodiesel
Natural gas supply security, methanol S/D, energy prices
Uranium supply/demand; uranium prices; F/X rates; geopolitical risk.
Global fertilizer supply/demand, farmer economics, crop prices, biofuels mandates
Global fertilizer, lithium, iodine supply/demand, Chilean pension fund reform
Global fertilizer supply/demand, farmer economics, crop prices, biofuels mandates
Uranium prices (U3O8 and UF6); CAD/USD exchange rate
Global nitrogen supply/demand, nitrogen cost position, European biodiesel mandates
TEF-N, NIHD-N, VIV-N,TSU-N
VZ.N, BCE, T
BA.UN, MBT, RCI.B, T, T-N, VZ-N
TWC.N, CVC.N, CHTR.O, SJR.B
BEST BUY
BCE, T, BA.UN, T-N, VZ-N
CCA, SJR.B, T
BCE, MBT, BA.UN, VZ-N, T-N
CMCSA, CVC.N, CHTR.O, SJR.B
T.N, BCE, T
36% Mexico, 25% Brazil, 9% Colombia & Panama, 7% Argentina, 23% Other
50% Wireless, 47% Wireline, 3% Other
30% Local & LD, 25% Data, 30% Wireless, 10% Video, 5% Other
76% Cable Communications; 24% NBC Universal (proportionate F12E)
98% Retail, 2% Business
44% Local & LD, 35% Data, 17% Wireless, 3% Video, 1% Other
56% Wireless, 33% Cable & Telecom, 13% Media, -2% Eliminations
51% Wireless, 23% Local & LD, 23% Data, 3% Other Tel
87% Residential; 8% Business; 5% Other
69.5% Wireless, 30.5% Wireline, (F14)
Growth in wireless data and postpaid subs, increase in broadband/video penetration
Wireless sub and ARPU growth; U-Verse service penetration; business seg. recovery
Wireless subscriber and ARPU growth, NAL erosion, IPTV penetration
Internet sub and ARPU growth; business segment revenue growth
Wireless phone activations per store, store growth
NAL erosion
Subscriber and ARPU growth in wireless, Basic cable, Internet, and VoIP
Wireless subscriber and ARPU growth, NAL erosion, IPTV penetration
Internet sub and ARPU growth; business segment growth; voice sub migration
Improving wireless smartphone penetration; Wireline mass market revenue growth
Holding companies
TEF-N, NIHD-N, VIV-N,TSU-N
MAXCOMCPO-MX, MEGACPO-MX
AMX, NIHD, TEF, TEO, TNE, TSP
AXTELCPO-MX; MEGACPO-MX
AXTELCPO-MX, MAXCOMCPO-MX
AMX, ENTEL-SN, TNE-N, TSU-N
AMX, ENTEL, TEF, TEO, TSU, VIV
The stake in Entel represents 98.9% of Almendral’s assets.
36% Mexico, 25% Brazil, 9% Colombia & Panama, 7% Argentina, 23% Other
61 % Voice, 26% Internet and Video, 13% Other
91% of revenues coming from main market in Chile, while 9% comes from Peru.
38% Residential, 29% Wholesale, 26% Business, 6% Public Telephony, 1% Other
59% Pay TV, 21% Internet, 12% Telephony, 8% Other.
Wireless: Voice 41%, Data 22%, Other 5%; Wireline: Voice 15%, Data 11%, other 6%
81% mobile services, 16% handset revenues, 3% wireline revenues
Discount to NAV, dividend distributions, and M&A activity.
Growth in wireless data and postpaid subs, increase in broadband/video penetration
Regulation, economy, competition
Wireless broadband growth, migration to postpaid, demand for corporate data.
Competition, regulation, economy
Growth, ARPUs, acquisitions, regulation
Wireless ARPU Performance; Postpaid Growth, Net Adds; Pay-TV Adds; Synergies
Subscriber net additions; growth of data revenues; trends in voice market
FC, TZZ, TMC
AI, TZZ, TMC
AI, FC, HCG, EQB
TZZ, AI, FC
TZS, TMC, TZZ, AI, FC
TMC, AI, FC, TZS, MTG
MTG, TZZ, TMC, AI, FC
Specialty Commodities
Ben Isaacson, MBA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 945-5310
Agrium Inc.
AGU.N
99.8 US$15322 SO
CF-N, IPI-N, MOS-N, YAR-OL
Cameco Corporation
CCO.TO
99.9
$7506 SO
AREVA-FR, EFR, PDN, URE
CF Industries Holdings,
CF.N
99.5 US$14950 SO
AGU, MOS-N, POT, YAR-OL
Denison Mines Corp.
DML.TO
87.7
$571 SO
PDN, URZ, UEX, URRE-Q
Intrepid Potash, Inc.
IPI.N
73.6 US$1046 SP
AGU, SDF-GR, MOS-N, POT
K+S
SDFGn.DE
90.1 EUR 5407 SP
AGU, IPI-N, MOS-N, POT, SQM-N
Methanex Corporation
MEOH.O
99.6 US$4740 SO
CE-N, DOW-N, EMN-N, HUN-N
Paladin Energy Ltd.
PDN.TO
96.9
$432 SP
AREVA-FR, CCO, EFR, URE
Potash Corporation
POT.N
99.4 US$30940 SP
AGU, IPI-N, SDF-GR, MOS-N
Sociedad Quimica y Minera
SQM.N
0.0 US$6446 SP
AGU, POT, IPI-N, MOS-N
The Mosaic Company
MOS.N
93.4 US$18716 SO
AGU, IPI-N, SDF-GR, POT
Uranium Participation
U.TO
100.0
$643 SP
DML, PDN, EFR
Yara International
YAR.OL
63.4NOK 107322 SP
AGU, CF-N, SDF-GR, POT
Telecommunication Services
Jeff Fan, CPA, CA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7780
America Movil
AMX.N
49.2 US$76055 SP
AT&T Inc.
T.N
100.0 US$179159 SP
BCE Inc.
BCE.TO
100.0
$49399 SP
Comcast Corporation
CMCSA.O
100.0 US$149717 SO
Glentel Inc.
GLN.TO
64.8
$556 T
Manitoba Telecom Services
MBT.TO
100.0
$1582 SP
Rogers Communications
RCIb.TO
71.1
$23265 SP
TELUS Corporation
T.TO
100.0
$26726 SP
Time Warner Cable Inc.
TWC.N
100.0 US$41971 SO
Verizon Communications
VZ.N
100.0 US$198954 SO
Andres Coello, (Scotiabank Inverlat) +52 (55) 5123 2852
Almendral
CHQ.SN
22.1CLP 582220 SO
America Movil
AMX.N
49.2 US$76055 SP
Axtel
AXTELCPO.MX39.9 MXN 4385 SU
Entel Chile
ENT.SN
27.8
CLP 1438322 SO
Maxcom Telecomunicaciones MXCMCPO.MX48.0 MXN 1638 SP
Megacable Holdings
MEGACPO.MX34.8 MXN 47348 SP
Telefonica Brasil
VIV.N
26.2 US$31987 SO
TIM Participações
TSU.N
33.3 US$10807 SP
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
17
February 5, 2015
Key Names
Reuters
Code
Float
%
Market SC
Comparables
Cap (M) Rating (TSX unless otherwise noted)
Transportation & Aerospace
Turan Quettawala, MBA, CFA (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada) (416) 863-7065
Air Canada
AC.TO
100.0
$3857 SO
DAL-N, AMR-N, UAL-N, WJA
Bombardier Inc.
BBDb.TO
85.0
$5122 SU
ERJ-N, GD-N, ALSO-PA
CAE Inc.
CAE.TO
100.0
$4313 SO
COL-N, LLL-N, HO-PX
Canadian National Railway
CNR.TO
100.0
$71152 SP
CP, CSX, NSC, UNP
Canadian Pacific Railway
CP.TO
100.0
$39861 SO
CNR, CSX, NSC, UNP
Chorus Aviation Inc.
CHRb.TO
100.0
$635 SP
SKYW-N, MESA-N, XJT-N, RJET-N
Embraer
ERJ.N
100.0 US$6569 SO
BBD.B, GD-N, BA-N
Mullen Group Ltd.
MTL.TO
94.3
$2001 SO
TFI, CSS
TransForce Inc.
TFI.TO
91.5
$2915 SP
CSS, MTL, TMA
WestJet Airlines Ltd.
WJA.TO
100.0
$3981 SO
AC.B, JBLU-Q, LUV-N
Westshore Terminals
WTE.TO
86.0
$2385 SU
N/A
Francisco Suarez, (Scotiabank Inverlat) +52 (55) 9179 5209
Grupo Aeroportuario
OMAB.O
41.0 US$1909 SO
AEOPF.PK, AIA.NZ, VIAAY.PK
Grupo Aeroportuario
PAC.N
48.0 US$3830 SP
AEOPF.PK, AIA.NZ, VIAAY.PK
Grupo Aeroportuario
ASR.N
40.0 US$3938 SU
AEOPF.PK, AIA.NZ, VIAAY.PK
Business Mix
(Based on revenue unless otherwise noted)
Performance Drivers
89% Passenger, 4% Cargo, 7% Other
52% Aerospace, 48% Transportation
53% Military, 47% Civil
22% Bulk, 48% Merchandise, 21% Intermodal, 9% Other
41% Bulk, 35% Merchandise, 22% Intermodal, 2% Other
99% Passenger, 1% Other
53% Commercial, 26% Executive, 19% Defence, 2% Other
62% Oilfield Services, 38% Trucking/Logistics
40% Package and Courier, 22% Specialized Services, 20% LTL, 18% TL
91% Guest, 9% Charter & Other
95% Coal Throughput, 5% Other
Global GDP growth, load factors, RPM yields, WTI
Economic growth/Corporate profits, Air travel demand, public infrastructure spending
Economic Growth. Air travel demand, global defence spending, forex rates
North American GDP growth, freight rates
North American GDP growth, freight rates
North American passenger traffic, number of aircraft, block hours
Economic growth/Corporate profits, Air travel demand, Brazilian military spending
Economic Growth/Corporate Profits, Oil and Natural Gas demand
Economic Growth/Corporate Profits, Retail Sales, Acquisitions
North American GDP growth, passenger traffic, RPM yields, WTI
Export coal demand and economic growth
Aeronautical revenues 81%, Non-aeronautical revenues 19%
Aeronautical revenues 79%, Non-aeronautical revenues 21%
Aeronautical revenues 66%, Non-aeronautical revenues 34%
Passengers
Passengers
Passengers
Glossary
Market Cap in C$ unless otherwise noted.
Stock Exchange Codes: A = American; AB = Saudi Arabia; AU = Australian; AV = Vienna; CO = Copenhagen; HK = Hong Kong; LN = London; N = New York;
NO = Oslo; PC = Pacific; PX = Paris; Q = Nasdaq; T = Toronto.
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
18