1. No category

5/13/2016
Shocked
Ana Fernanda Maiguashca
Banco de la República
Board of Directors
May 2016
This presentation includes personal opinions and does not represent those of
the Board or the Banco de la República
Agenda
CLIMATE SHOCKS
TERMS OF TRADE SHOCK
X
O/M
M
X
REST
CAD
FDI
XR
INFLATION
1
5/13/2016
Agenda
CLIMATE SHOCKS
TERMS OF TRADE SHOCK
X
O/M
M
X
REST
CAD
FDI
XR
(Index 2012=100)
INFLATION
Terms of Trade
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
feb-04
feb-06
Brasil
feb-08
Colombia
feb-10
Chile
feb-12
feb-14
México
Perú
feb-16
Source: datastream, cálculos Banco de la República
2
5/13/2016
Current Account Balance
(USD Mll)
0
-1.000
-2.000
-3.000
-4.000
-5.000
-6.000
dic-15
sep-15
jun-15
dic-14
mar-15
sep-14
jun-14
dic-13
mar-14
sep-13
jun-13
dic-12
mar-13
sep-12
jun-12
dic-11
mar-12
sep-11
jun-11
dic-10
mar-11
sep-10
jun-10
dic-09
mar-10
sep-09
jun-09
mar-09
-7.000
Source: Banco de la República
Nominal Exchange Rates
265
(Index Base 100 = Jan 2012)
245
225
205
185
165
145
125
105
85
14‐abr‐14
14‐jul‐14
Brasil
14‐oct‐14
Chile
14‐ene‐15
14‐abr‐15
México
14‐jul‐15
Colombia
14‐oct‐15
14‐ene‐16
Perú
14‐abr‐16
Rusia
Source: Bloomberg.
3
5/13/2016
Current Account Balance
(% of GDP)
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
-3,0
-4,0
-5,0
-6,0
-7,0
2010
2011
Brazil
2012
Chile
2013
Peru
Mexico
2014
2015
Colombia
Source: Datastream, IMF.
Agenda
CLIMATE SHOCKS
TERMS OF TRADE SHOCK
X
O/M
M
X
REST
CAD
FDI
XR
INFLATION
4
5/13/2016
Exports (USD) Growth
(12 mos aggregate %)
70
160
50
120
30
80
10
40
-10
0
Main goods*
-30
oct-15
feb-16
feb-15
jun-15
oct-14
jun-14
oct-13
feb-14
jun-13
oct-12
feb-13
feb-12
jun-12
oct-11
jun-11
oct-10
feb-11
jun-10
oct-09
feb-10
jun-09
oct-08
Exports to Venezuela and Ecuador excluding main goods (Right
axis)
feb-09
-50
-40
Excluding main goods and Venezuela and Ecuador
-80
* Oil and derived products, coal, ferroniquel, coffee, bananas, flowers
Source: DANE
Estimated Growth of Trade Partners
Source: Banco de la República
5
5/13/2016
Imports (USD) Growth
(12 mos aggregate %)
50
35
20
5
-10
Consumption goods
Intermediate goods
-25
Capital goods
ene-16
sep-15
may-15
ene-15
sep-14
may-14
ene-14
sep-13
may-13
ene-13
sep-12
may-12
ene-12
sep-11
may-11
ene-11
sep-10
may-10
sep-09
ene-10
-40
Source: DANE.
Current account balance
(USD Mll)
0
-5000
-10000
-15000
-20000
-25000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Banco de la República
6
5/13/2016
GDP and Domestic Demand Growth
(YoY %)
12
GDP
10
Domestic demand
8
6
4
3,3
2,6
2
0
dic-15
jun-15
dic-14
jun-14
dic-13
jun-13
dic-12
jun-12
dic-11
jun-11
dic-10
jun-10
dic-09
jun-09
dic-08
jun-08
dic-07
-2
Source: DANE, Banco de la República
BoP Forecasts
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Annual flow (in millions of US dollars)
Current Account (A + B + C + D)
2014
2015
2016
Baseline
-19.593
-18.925
(% of GDP)
-5,2%
6,5%
-6,0%
A.
-4.630
-14.026
-13.135
a. Exports
56.923
38.125
31.735
b. Im ports FOB
61.553
52.151
44.870
-6.682
-3.981
-2.772
-12.638
-5.989
-5.193
4.358
5.071
5.305
‐19.836
‐19.201
‐15.795
-12.426
-7.890
-10.843
16.325
3.899
12.108
4.218
13.343
2.500
Goods (a - b)
B.
Services
C.
Primary Income
D.
Secondary Income
Capital and Financial Account (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5)
1. Net Foreing Direct Investment
Foreing investment in Colombia
Colombian investment abroad
-15.795
2. Portfolio Investment
-11.654
-9.686
-2.811
Public Sector
Private Sector
‐15.378
3.724
‐6.213
‐3.473
‐3.283
472
3. Financial Derivatives
268
1.526
0
4. Other Investment
-461
-3.567
-2.720
5. Reserve Assets
4.437
415
579
-243
-276
0
-24.273
-19.617
-16.374
Net Errors and Omissions
Capital and Financial Account - Reserve Assets
Source: Banco de la República
7
5/13/2016
Banrep2
Foreign investment inflows
(USD Mll)
2.500
2.273
1.999
2.000
1.767
1.710
1.660
1.650
1.575
1.535
1.500
1.328
1.339
1.266
955
1.000
500
Direct investment
-400
dic-15
-490
sep-15
jun-15
mar-15
dic-14
sep-14
jun-14
-364
mar-14
sep-13
jun-13
mar-13
dic-12
sep-12
jun-12
mar-12
dic-13
-305
-500
mar-16
0
Portfolio investment
Source: Banco de la República
15
LAC 5 GDP Growth
(YoY %)
15
10
5
0
-5
Colombia
Brasil
Chile
México
dic-15
jun-15
dic-14
dic-13
jun-14
jun-13
dic-12
jun-12
dic-11
jun-11
dic-10
jun-10
dic-09
jun-09
dic-08
jun-08
dic-07
jun-07
dic-06
jun-06
dic-05
-10
Perú
Fuente: Bloomberg
8
Diapositiva 15
Banrep2 Responsable:
Última Fecha de Actualización:
Banco de la República, 30/07/2008
feb‐16
feb‐15
feb‐14
feb‐13
feb‐12
feb‐11
feb‐10
feb‐09
XR
feb‐08
feb‐07
feb‐06
feb‐05
feb‐04
feb‐03
feb‐02
feb‐01
feb‐00
feb‐99
feb‐98
feb‐97
X
REST
feb‐96
feb‐95
feb‐94
feb‐93
feb‐92
feb‐91
feb‐90
feb‐89
X
O/M
feb‐88
M
feb‐87
feb‐86
feb‐85
feb‐84
feb‐83
feb‐82
feb‐81
feb‐80
feb‐79
TERMS OF TRADE SHOCK
Oceanic El Niño Index
5/13/2016
Agenda
CLIMATE SHOCKS
CAD
FDI
INFLATION
When it rains it pours. And when it doesn´t…
3,0
The El Niño phenomenon in Colombia
2,5
2,0
2,30
1,5
1,0
0,5
Strong
0,0
Moderate
‐0,5
ONI
‐1,0
‐1,5
‐2,0
9
5/13/2016
Inflation
CPI
%
9
8
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
7
7,98%
7,59%
7,45%
6,77%
6,39%
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
mar-11
mar-12
mar-13
Total
mar-14
mar-15
Rango Meta
mar-16
Source: Banco de la República
Inflation
Food Inflation
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
15
12,35%
11,86%
12,26%
10,85%
9,81%
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
mar-11
mar-12
mar-13
mar-14
mar-15
mar-16
Source: Banco de la República
10
5/13/2016
Inflation
%
7,0
6,5
6,0
5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
Core Inflation Indicators
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
6,29%
6,07%
5,73%
5,43%
5,40%
mar-11
mar-12
mar-13
mar-14
mar-15
mar-16
Average of four indicators
Tradables
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Inflation
7,38%
6,97%
7,39%
7,09%
6,92%
Tradables and Non Tradables ex food and
regulated items
8
7
6
5
4
Non Tradables (EXFR)
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
4,83%
4,86%
4,46%
4,21%
4,39%
%
3
2
1
0
-1
mar-11
mar-12
mar-13
Transables
Tradables
mar-14
mar-15
mar-16
No
transables
Non
Tradables
Source: Banco de la República
11
5/13/2016
How core is core?
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
25%
Non Tradables Ex food and reg NOT
AFFECTED
CPI ex food and reg
20%
CPI ex perishables, fuel, reg and
tradables
CPI ex food, reg and tradables
15%
Imported PPI lag 6 mos
10%
5%
4%
4%
0%
3%
-5%
Source: Banco de la República
Mind the GAP
Brecha del Producto
5%
3%
1%
-0.33%
-1%
-1.71% -3%
-5%
-7%
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-9%
12
5/13/2016
Thank you
COP vs Oil prices
USD dollars per barrel
Pesos per USD dollars
160
1500
1700
140
1900
120
2100
100
2300
80
2500
2700
60
2900
40
3100
20
3300
WTI
Brent
TRM (right axis and inverse scale)
oct‐15
abr‐16
abr‐15
oct‐14
oct‐13
abr‐14
oct‐12
abr‐13
abr‐12
oct‐11
abr‐11
oct‐10
oct‐09
abr‐10
oct‐08
abr‐09
abr‐08
oct‐07
abr‐07
oct‐06
oct‐05
abr‐06
3500
abr‐05
0
Monthly average
Source: Banco de la República, Bloomberg
13