1. No category

MEXICO ENERGY OUTLOOK
RAFAEL ALEXANDRI RIONDA
GENERAL DIRECTOR FOR ENERGY PLANNING AND INFORMATION
1
Crude oil production and exports are expected to
increase as a result of the recent Energy Reform
Expected crude oil production
(kbd)
3,500
2,000
Explotation
(without KuMaloob-Zaap,
Cantarell,
Lakach and
ATG)
1,500
1,000
0
2014
3,000
Exploration
(without deep
waters)
2,500
Cantarell
Export from
private parties
3,500
Bids (rounds)
3,000
500
Expected crude oil exports
(kbd)
2014
2,500
Aceite Terciario
del Golfo
Exports
2,000
1,500
1,000
To refineries
in Mexico
500
Ku-MaloobZaap & AyatsilTekel
2014
2015
2016
Source: SENER
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Regarding oil demand, it is expected that transport
sector will remain as the most important
Petroleum products demand by Sector
(kbd)
2028
2013
Oil
51.2
Industry
90.7
Industry Oil
Power 121.2 26.0
37.3
Power
224.0
Transport
1,058.9
Where:
Transport sector
Automotive
Rail
Marine
Air
Power
Public generation
Private electricity generation
Source: SENER
Transport
1,774.8
2013
1,058.9
972.2
12.7
13.8
60.2
224.0
201.2
22.8
2028
1,774.8
1,612.7
25.3
20.8
116.1
37.3
16.7
20.6
Gasoline and diesel demand, imports,
and production keep on growing
Gasoline demand, imports and production
1,254 1,279
(kbd)
1,215
1,170
1,080
1,120
1,018
788
358
776
334
773
336
781
272
809
291
841
328
880
371
910
388
960
444
503
531
517
567
603.5 603.4
564
604
629
650.7 650.1 650.5
549.1
508.9 517.4 513.1 508.9 521.3 515.4 514.9
425.1 442.8 436.7
45
43
44
35
36
39
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Imports
42
43
2019
2020
46
2021
49
2022
49
46
48
2023
2024
2025
Production
Demand
46
48
2026
2027
Source: SENER
2028
Imports
share (%)
414
Even with the additional coking
capacity in the existing refineries,
imports will raise due to demand
increase.
Diesel demand, imports and
production
(kbd)
49
417
425
442
72
462
84
107
159
171
370.2 377.8
483
84
501
106
518
131
535
552
572
588
139
628
98
101
126
608
648
664
116
136
122
139
530.4 531.8 528.1
486.5 485.6
399.4 395.4 387.2 408.4 412.9
432.8
313.4
257.5 253.9
26
38
2013
2014
40
16
18
2015
2016
2017
Imports
17
21
25
24
25
24
17
20
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Production
Demand
16
2026
18
2027
21
2028
Imports
share (%)
Natural gas production and imports
Natural gas production
(mmcfd)
9,000
8,000
7,000
Private
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
In
2028,
Pemex
expected natural gas
production will be 5,231
mmcfd, and private
parties will account
2,516 mmcfd.
Pemex
2,000
1,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Natural gas imports
(mmcfd)
5000
Natural gas imports by
pipeline will increase from
1,756 mmcfd in 2013 to 4,524
mmcfd in 2028 (258%).
LNG imports will decrease
almost 90%.
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Source: SENER
LNG
Pipeline
Natural Gas foreign commerce by
interconnection points
Interconnection points
Total Imports
Imports by pipeline
1. Mexicali, BC.
2. Los Algodones, BC.
3. Nogales, Son.
4. Naco, Son.
2013
2,516.6
1,755.5
21.3
Los Algodones
Mexicali
255.2
Cd. Morelos
Agua Prieta
Nogales
Naco
0.9
Cd. Juarez
More than 50% of natural
gas total imports are
through Tamaulipas.
72.5
ENSENADA
5. Naco, Son.
6. Agua Prieta, Son.
7. Ciudad Juárez, Chih.
8. Ciudad Acuña, Coah.
9. Piedras Negras, Coah.
10. Ciudad Mier, Tamps.
11. Argüelles, Tamps. (Kinder
Morgan)
12. Reynosa, Tamps. (Tetco)
13. Reynosa, Tamps. (Tennessee
Gas, PMX)
14. Reynosa, Tamps. (Tennessee
Gas, RB)3
LNG Imports
16. Altamira, Tamps.
17. Ensenada, BC.
18. Manzanillo, Col.
Total exports
Ciudad Morelos, BC.
Reynosa, Tamps.
44.6
Cd. Acuña
11.4
Piedras Negras
308.8
Ciudad Mier- Monterrey
Argüelles
1.2
19.1
Reynosa-Tetco
ReynosaTennessee
370.5
208.9
24.7
ALTAMIRA
202.0
214.4
761.1
Pemex
356.8
Private
MANZANILLO
34.0
Import points
370.3
12.4
9.3
3.1
Export points
Import and
export points
Source: SENER
New infrastructure: Natural gas pipelines
Ehrenberg
Los
Algodones
San Luis Río
Colorado
Natural gas pipelines network is
projected to almost double fold in
extension. This will increase the
capacity for imports from the United
States.
San Isidro
Sásabe
Samalayuca
Waha
Presidio/Ojinaga
El Encino
Texas
Colombia
Nueces
La Laguna
Durango
Aguascalientes
Brownsville
Escobedo Los
Ramones
V. Reyes
Guadalajara
Naranjos
Tuxpan
Mérida
Cancún
Tula
Cempoala
Current natural gas pipelines
New pipelines considered in
The National Infraestructure
Program
Lázaro
Cárdenas
Jáltipan
Acapulco
Salina
Cruz
Tapachula
Source: Cenagas
Expected natural gas demand, 2028
mmcfd
14,000
12,000
Demand
10,000
Production
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Residential
87
Service
28
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Gas demand by consumption sector
Auto
(mmcfd)
Oil
2,272
Electric
3,323
Industrial
1,240
Service
46
Auto
transport
3
Residential
116
transport
2
2013
6,952
Source: SENER
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2028
11,595
Natural gas demand in
the
electricity
and
industrial sectors will
double.
Oil
2,456
Electric
6,345
Industrial
2,630
Electric sector goals
Clean generation percentage in the total generation
2012
≈14%
2012
≈17%
2018
≈25%
2021
30%
2024
35%
2030
40%
2050
50%
Clean generation includes the following generation technologies:
•
•
•
•
•
Any fossil fuel based plant that has carbon capture and storage technology.
Hydro.
Nuclear.
Any renewable energy source (wind, solar, bioenergy, among others).
Efficient cogeneration (the term applies to cogeneration plants that comply with
the Energy Regulatory Commission definition).
Source: Ley para el Aprovechamiento de Energías Renovables y el Financiamiento de la Transición Energética (LAERFTE) y Dictamen de la
Ley de Transición Energética, publicado en el DOF el 14 de diciembre de 2014.
Electricity sector
Installed generation capacity
2014
65,451 MW
Coal
8.2%
Turbogas Wind
7.3%
3.1%
• Clean energy will account for 38% of the
total capacity in 2029.
• There is a mayor reduction of the
conventional thermal capacity (20% to
3%).
Nuclear
2.1%
Internal
combustion
2.0%
Hydro
19.0%
Fluidizide bed
0.9%
Conventional
thermal
20.1%
2029
110,443 MW
Geothermal
1.2%
Combined cycle
35.6%
Cogeneration
Nuclear
6.8%
5.2%
Bioenergy
0.3%
Solar
0.1%
Coal
3.7%
Turbogas
3.3%
Wind
12.7%
Conventional
thermal
2.9%
Geothermal
2.1%
Fluidizide bed
0.5%
Solar
1.7%
• In 2029 natural gas based technologies
will account for 47%.
Hydro
16.2%
Combustión Interna
1.2%
Bioenergy
0.3%
Combined cycle
43.4%
Source: Prodesen
Total generation by source
2014-2029
500,000
450,000
Biofuels
Solar
Geothermal
Wind
400,000
Hydro
350,000
Uranium
GWh
300,000
250,000
200,000
Natural gas
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Coal
Fuel oil
Diesel
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
The key elements in order to achieve the target of greenhouse gases
reduction are:
• Phase out of generation plants that use fuel oil, replacing them with natural gas plants.
• A rapid increase in the share of renewables.
• Increase the share of nuclear generation.
Source: Prodesen
Electricity sales and GDP
2014-2029
500
Electricity consumption has shown a strong correlation with GDP, this trend is
expected to keep on towards the future.
GWh
Growth rate
(%)
8.0%
7.0%
Electricity gross
consumption
500
500
400
6.0%
300
4.0%
200
2.0%
100
0.0%
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
-2.0%
-4.0%
Gross consumption AAGR= 2.7% Gross consumption AAGR= 3.5%
-6.0%
GDP AAGR (2004-2014)= 2.6%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
Source: Prodesen
2.0%
GDP AAGR (2014-2028)= 4.0%
Gross consumption growth rate
GDP (2008 prices) growth rate
AAGR: Annual Average Growth Rate
MEXICO ENERGY OUTLOOK
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