1. Ingeniería

Canadian Economic Outlook
BMO Capital Markets Economics
January 30, 2015
Q1
PRODUCTION
Real GDP (chain-weighted)
Final Sales
Final Domestic Demand
Consumer Spending
Durables
Non-Durables
Services
Government Spending
Business Investment
Non-Residential Construction
Machinery and Equipment
Residential Construction
Exports
Imports
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015
Q4
Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
2016
Q4
2013
2014
2015
2016
(quarter/quarter % change : a.r.)
1.0
3.6
2.8
2.0
2.0
5.8
3.6
0.7
0.1
3.3
2.8
2.0
1.5
4.4
2.8
2.7
1.6
14.9
12.6
3.0
4.0
-0.5
-0.7
2.5
1.3
3.5
2.1
2.6
-0.7
1.4
0.3
1.0
-1.9
0.8
0.5
1.7
-0.3
0.5
-1.9
1.0
-5.0
1.4
5.2
3.0
-4.2
11.4
12.5
0.0
0.9
19.0
6.9
-4.0
-4.8
9.8
4.0
0.0
1.1
0.9
-0.7
2.7
2.0
2.8
2.7
0.0
-19.3
-20.0
-18.0
1.0
2.7
-2.5
1.8
1.7
0.3
2.5
1.0
2.7
2.7
0.2
-10.7
-11.0
-10.0
1.0
4.4
0.0
2.0
2.2
1.3
2.3
1.5
2.5
2.3
0.7
-1.3
-1.8
-0.5
0.5
5.0
1.9
2.2
2.3
1.6
2.3
2.0
2.3
2.4
1.1
0.4
0.0
1.0
0.0
5.3
3.1
2.3
2.3
1.9
2.2
2.0
2.3
2.2
1.1
3.2
3.0
3.5
0.0
5.1
3.5
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.1
1.5
2.2
2.1
1.5
5.3
5.5
5.0
-0.5
4.6
3.6
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.3
5.7
6.0
5.0
-1.0
4.4
4.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.5
2.0
2.1
1.5
6.2
6.5
5.5
-1.0
4.1
3.9
2.0
1.8
1.5
2.5
3.8
2.3
2.3
0.1
2.6
5.0
-1.7
-0.4
2.0
1.3
2.4
2.8
1.6
2.8
5.7
2.7
2.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-1.1
2.5
5.1
1.5
2.0
1.9
1.1
2.7
4.0
2.0
2.6
0.5
-6.9
-7.7
-5.5
2.7
3.6
0.9
2.2
2.2
1.7
2.2
1.7
2.3
2.2
1.1
2.0
1.9
2.2
-0.2
4.8
3.1
(billions of chained 2007 dollars : a.r.)
13.3
4.8
0.6
6.4
-0.9
-2.0
-1.0
1.3
-29.6
-19.3
-15.6
-21.4
1.8
2.8
0.9
-1.3
7.2
0.2
-14.2
1.6
7.9
0.1
-8.1
1.3
7.1
-0.2
-3.8
0.9
6.7
-0.1
-0.8
0.6
6.4
-0.1
1.3
0.4
6.1
-0.1
2.8
0.2
6.1
0.0
3.2
0.0
6.2
0.0
3.6
0.0
12.4
0.2
-39.6
0.2
6.3
-0.4
-21.5
1.1
7.2
0.1
-6.7
0.8
6.2
-0.1
2.7
0.5
Nominal GDP
(% chng : a.r.)
(billions of dollars : a.r.)
1,950
1,969
1,992
6.7
3.9
4.7
1,972
-3.8
1,980
1.6
2,001
4.4
2,024
4.6
2,048
4.8
2,073
5.0
2,099
5.1
2,126
5.3
1,894
3.4
1,976
4.3
1,994
1.0
2,087
4.6
INFLATION
GDP Price Index
CPI All Items
Excl. Food & Energy
Food Prices
Energy Prices
Services
(quarter/quarter % change : a.r.)
5.5
0.4
1.8
-2.0
2.8
3.7
1.3
0.1
2.4
2.3
2.1
1.2
2.2
5.5
1.5
3.9
11.2
11.2
-5.8
-17.5
1.6
3.6
3.3
0.2
-4.8
-1.9
1.5
2.8
-35.0
0.9
-0.2
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.2
3.0
2.0
2.4
2.3
2.0
2.6
4.4
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.7
4.4
2.1
2.6
1.9
1.6
2.1
5.0
2.3
3.0
2.2
2.0
1.9
5.2
2.0
3.1
2.4
2.4
2.1
3.4
2.2
1.4
0.9
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.9
1.9
1.6
2.3
3.5
2.1
-1.0
0.7
1.8
2.7
-12.6
1.7
2.4
2.1
1.9
2.1
4.2
2.1
CPI All Items
BoC Core
(year/year % change)
1.4
2.2
2.1
1.3
1.7
2.0
1.9
2.2
0.8
2.1
0.3
1.9
0.5
1.9
1.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.0
1.2
1.8
2.0
2.0
FINANCIAL
Overnight Rate
3-Month T-Bill
90-Day BAs
10 Year Bond Yield
(average for the quarter : %)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.87
0.93
0.94
1.26
1.27
1.28
2.47
2.35
2.14
1.00
0.90
1.28
1.95
0.67
0.60
1.00
1.42
0.50
0.41
0.81
1.42
0.50
0.41
0.81
1.58
0.50
0.41
0.81
1.82
0.75
0.67
1.06
1.99
1.00
0.93
1.31
2.13
1.25
1.18
1.55
2.27
1.50
1.44
1.80
2.40
1.00
0.97
1.20
2.26
1.00
0.91
1.27
2.23
0.55
0.46
0.86
1.56
1.15
1.06
1.43
2.20
91
-36
87
-33
58
-37
39
-39
31
-39
8
-40
10
-41
13
-42
15
-43
18
-45
91
-9
88
-31
34
-39
14
-43
FOREIGN TRADE
Current Account Balance
(% of GDP)
Merchandise Balance
Non-Merchandise Balance
(billions of dollars : a.r.)
-45.0
-39.6
-33.6
-2.3
-2.0
-1.7
6.3
9.3
11.6
-51.4
-48.9
-45.2
-52.7
-2.6
-10.2
-42.4
-73.7
-3.7
-33.4
-40.3
-76.2
-3.8
-37.1
-39.1
-67.7
-3.4
-29.1
-38.6
-62.5
-3.1
-24.7
-37.8
-58.0
-2.8
-21.3
-36.7
-54.1
-2.6
-18.3
-35.8
-49.9
-2.4
-14.8
-35.1
-45.9
-2.2
-11.7
-34.2
-56.3
-3.0
-7.2
-49.0
-42.7
-2.2
4.2
-47.0
-70.0
-3.5
-31.1
-38.9
-52.0
-2.5
-16.5
-35.4
Exchange Rate (US¢/C$)
Exchange Rate (C$/US$)
Exchange Rate (¥/C$)
Exchange Rate (C$/Euro)
(average for the quarter)
90.6
91.7
91.8
1.103
1.090
1.089
93.1
93.6
95.5
1.51
1.50
1.44
88.1
1.135
100.8
1.42
81.6
1.226
98.1
1.39
78.9
1.267
96.0
1.45
78.7
1.271
96.8
1.45
79.5
1.257
99.1
1.42
80.5
1.242
101.3
1.40
81.4
1.229
103.4
1.37
82.2
1.217
105.5
1.35
83.0
1.204
107.6
1.33
97.1
1.030
94.7
1.37
90.6
1.105
95.8
1.47
79.7
1.255
97.5
1.43
81.8
1.223
104.5
1.36
INCOMES
Corporate Profits Before Tax
Corporate Profits After Tax
Personal Income
Real Disposable Income
(year/year % change)
11.0
19.4
3.0
9.5
3.3
3.6
1.8
1.5
0.3
-0.1
3.1
1.3
-20.0
-11.4
1.7
0.2
-23.6
-15.5
1.5
0.6
-23.6
-17.0
2.1
1.0
-16.1
-10.7
2.9
1.4
1.7
1.1
4.5
2.5
7.7
4.2
5.1
3.0
9.4
5.2
4.7
2.4
11.0
6.2
4.8
2.3
0.7
7.3
3.7
2.5
10.0
5.0
3.4
1.6
-20.9
-13.7
2.1
0.8
7.4
4.2
4.8
2.6
Savings Rate
(average for the quarter : %)
5.0
3.9
3.9
3.5
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
5.2
4.1
2.3
2.6
OTHER INDICATORS
Unemployment Rate (%)
Housing Starts (000s, a.r.)
Existing Home Sales (y/y % ch)
MLS Home Price Index (y/y % ch)
Motor Vehicle Sales (mlns, a.r.)
(quarter average)
7.0
7.0
176
196
1.9
6.3
5.0
5.1
1.74
1.85
6.7
185
6.2
5.4
1.96
6.7
184
0.5
3.4
1.93
6.7
177
-5.3
1.9
1.89
6.7
178
-4.6
2.1
1.88
6.6
183
-4.2
0.7
1.87
6.5
178
2.8
0.9
1.85
6.5
179
1.5
0.4
1.86
6.4
181
-2.6
-0.6
1.85
6.4
183
-1.5
-0.6
1.84
7.1
188
0.7
2.7
1.77
6.9
189
5.1
5.2
1.89
6.7
180
-3.5
2.0
1.89
6.4
180
0.0
0.0
1.85
(quarter/quarter % change : a.r.)
Employment Growth
0.6
-0.0
0.7
1.6
Industrial Production
5.3
4.7
0.8
1.6
Federal Budget Balance (% of FY GDP)
-0.0
-2.2
0.4
-0.6
0.9
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.4
3.2
1.0
3.8
1.0
3.3
0.9
3.0
1.4
1.8
-0.3
0.6
3.7
-0.1
0.6
0.3
0.3
1.0
2.5
0.4
Inventory Change
Contribution to GDP Growth
Net Exports
Contribution to GDP Growth
Canada/US spread: (bps)
90 day
10 year
82
-30
90
-27
10.4
7.8
3.8
2.0
7.0
199
6.0
5.3
1.99
1,991
-0.1
Note: Outlined areas represent forecast periods
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