1. Healthcare

INSTITUTIONAL SECURITIES
Maruti Suzuki
Steady quarter; margins to improve further
OUTPERFORMER
27 January 2015
Q3FY15 result highlights
BSE Sensex: 29571
•
Maruti Suzuki’s PAT at Rs8bn (estimate of Rs8.9bn) was 10% below
expectations. The variance was on account of lower other income (Rs1.29bn vs
estimate of Rs2bn) due to a lower realization of treasury gains in the quarter.
Operating results though were ahead of expectations.
•
EBITDA adjusted for a one off of Rs700mn (an excise duty demand on sales tax
subsidy) at Rs16.6bn was ~3% above our estimates with higher margins of
13.2% (up 80bps qoq; estimate of 12.9%). EBITDA margins benefitted from
currency movements as well as benign commodity costs.
Sector: Automobiles
Stock data
CMP (Rs)
Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDbn)
3,688
1,114 / 18.1
Target Price (Rs)
Change in TP (%)
Potential from CMP (%)
4,285
+11
+16
Earnings change (%)
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Concall highlights: (a) Despite the excise duty hike, the management maintains its
guidance of a 10% volume growth in FY15 (b) Majority of the currency benefit is
likely to flow through in Q4FY15 (b) High discounts to continue till 2HFY16 (for
the quarter at Rs 21,000) as the current market is still remains sluggish.
Ù
+7.6
+7.4
Bloomberg code
Key positives: Higher than expected margins
Key negatives: Lower than estimated other income
MSIL IN
1-yr high/low (Rs)
Impact on financials: We raise our earnings for FY16/17 by ~8% each to account for
the positive currency movements. We estimate than MSIL will retain half of the
benefit from the Yen depreciation i.e. ~110bps accretion to the EBITDA margins.
3,705/1,540
6-mth avg. daily volumes (m)
0.34
6-mth avg. daily traded value
(Rsm/US$m)
Valuations & view
1,060.4 / 17.26
Shares outstanding (m)
Free float (%)
Promoter holding (%)
Price performance – relative and absolute
Maruti Suzuki India
Maruti Suzuki with its robust product line up and strong competitive position is
well placed to benefit from a potential improvement in the passenger car volumes.
Further, benefits of currency movements (INR/JPY) are will be felt in the coming
quarter. We maintain an Outperformer rating on the stock with a target price of
Rs4285 (i.e 17.5XFY17E EPS).
302.1
43.8
56.2
Key financials (quarterly)
Sensex
320
Revenues
260
EBITDA
200
140
80
Jan-12
Oct-12
Jul-13
Apr-14
Jan-15
3-mth
6-mth
1-yr
Maruti Suzuki India 16.3
BSE Sensex
10.1
47.0
13.2
116.6
39.9
(%)
Q3FY14 Q2FY15
Q3FY15
% ch qoq
% ch yoy
108,938 123,038
125,758
2.2
15.4
% var. from est
0.8
13,548
15,208
15,926
4.7
17.6
(1.2)
OPM (%)
Depreciation
12.4
5,414
12.4
5,989
12.7
6,278
30bps
4.8
18bps
16.0
26bps
4.6
EBIT
8,134
9,220
9,648
4.6
18.6
(0.06)
448
348
300
(13.7)
NA
(9.6)
PBT
8,856
10,807
10,637
(1.6)
20.1
(9.6)
PAT
6,811
8,628
8,022
(7.0)
17.8
(10.3)
Reported PAT
6,811
8,628
8,022
(7.0)
17.8
(10.3)
Interest expense
Deepak Jain
Saksham Kaushal
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2562
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2529
For Private Circulation only.
Important disclosures appear at the back of this report”
SEBI Registration Nos.: INB23 12914 37, INF23 12914 37, INB01 12914 33, INF01 12914 33.
RESULT NOTE
INDIA RESEARCH
Maruti Suzuki – Q3FY15 result
Other Points
•
Q3FY15 demand recovery was led by higher sales promotions, a certain degree of pre-buying due to excise duty
hikes and lower fuel prices. It remains a push rather than a pull market.
•
Marketing expenses for the quarter were higher by Rs800mn on account of new launches. The new launches
were the Ciaz, Swift (new variant) and the Alto K-10 (new variant). The management indicated that the CIAZ has
been well received with monthly volumes of 3,500-4,000 units. The company will be launching the S Cross in this
financial year.
•
For second quarter running, urban markets have registered a double digit growth, with rural markets also
registering a healthy growth. Proportion of first time buyers remains at ~44% (from 37% in FY14). With the gap
between diesel and petrol coming down, diesel vehicles in the mix have down from 54% last year to 46%.
•
Discounts continue to remain at high levels of Rs21,000/car (same as the last quarter) with management
indicating that discounts to persist till 2HFY16 to support demand.
•
MSIL’s current capacity is at 1.55mn units – implying a utilization level of ~85%. The management has indicated
that after working with the production team it would look to sweat existing assets further if required. The new
plant in Gujarat should be operational by mid – FY17. We note that historically MSIL (particularly between FY0507) has been able to operate at higher than rated capacity levels.
•
Inventory levels currently stands at 2-3 weeks as retails sales increased in December to take benefit of the excise
duty cut.
Q3FY15: Volume Analysis
Year to March
Q3FY15
Q3FY14 % change
Q2FY15
% change
323,911
288,151
321,898
0.6
comments
Volumes
Units sold (nos)
12.4
Increase in domestic sales on back of higher
sales promotions, lower excise duty and lower
fuel prices.
Domestic
Exports
Realisation (INR)
295,202
268,185
10.1
287,687
2.6
28,709
19,966
378,596
365,617
43.8
34,211
(16.1)
3.5
372,675
1.6
Favorable product-mix - higher contribution of
Swift, Swift Dzire and Ciaz
Q3FY15: Financial analysis
Year to March
Q3FY15
Q3FY14 % change
Q2FY15
% change
Total revenues
125,758
108,938
15.4
123,038
2.2
88,261
78,014
13.1
87,749
0.6
3,750
2,997
25.1
3,698
1.4
17,821
14,380
23.9
16,383
8.8
Raw material
Staff costs
Other expenses
comments
Benefit from currency movements partially felt
Higher due to one off excise duty demand on
sales tax subsidy of Rs700mn and higher
marketing expenses on account of new
launches
Total expenditure
EBIDTA
109,832
95,391
15.1
107,829
1.9
15,926
13,548
17.6
15,208
4.7
Adj EBITDA at Rs16.6bn, was 3% above
estimate
Other income
Interest
Depreciation
PBT
1,290
1,170
10.3
1,935
(33.4)
300
448
(33.0)
348
(13.7)
6,278
5,414
16.0
5,989
4.8
10,637
8,856
20.1
10,807
(1.6)
Tax
2,615
2,044
27.9
2,179
20.0
Adjusted net profit
8,022
6,811
17.8
8,628
(7.0)
8,022
6,811
17.8
8,628
Extraordinary exp
Net profit
2 |IDFC SECURITIES
-
Increase on account of new products , new dies
(7.0)
27 January 2015
Maruti Suzuki – Q3FY15 result
Q3FY15: Margin analysis
Year to March
Q3FY15
Raw material
70.2
Staff costs
Q3FY14 bps change
71.6
(143.0)
Q2FY15 bps change
71.3
(113.5)
3.0
2.8
23.1
3.0
(2.4)
Other expenses
14.2
13.2
97.1
13.3
85.6
EBIDTA
12.7
12.4
22.8
12.4
30.3
6.4
6.3
12.6
7.0
(63.4)
Tax rate
24.6
Source: Company; IDFC Securities Research
23.1
150.4
20.2
442.3
comments
In-line with estimates
Higher marketing expenses and one-off exice
duty demand
Adjusted net profit
Adjusted EBITDA margin at 13.2%
Upgrade earnings by 8% in FY16/17
We upgrade our earnings by ~8% in FY16/17 largely on account of the weakening of the yen. Our previous
assumptions had been based on an INR/JPY rate of 0.58, as against the current rate of 0.52 (a depreciated of 10%).
Given costs to the extent of 23% of the revenues are denominated in yen, the impact on EBITDA margins would be
~230bps.We assume MSIL will retain at least half of the benefit – leading to a ~110bps improvement in margins for
FY16/17. This leads to an earnings upgrade of ~8%.
We maintain an Outperformer rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs4285 (17.5XFY17E earnings)
Earnings revision table – upgrade earning by ~7%
FY16E
FY17E
Old
New
% Diff
Old
New
% Diff
1,532,777
1,519,384
(0.9)
1,763,575
1,751,096
(0.7)
Net sales
623,096
610,079
(2.1)
725,218
715,425
(1.4)
EBITDA
86,615
91,636
5.8
107,476
113,565
5.7
EBITDA margin (%)
PAT
13.9
52,874
15.0
56,867
110
7.6
14.5
68,889
15.7
73,978
120
7.4
175
188
7.6
228
245
7.4
Volumes (nos)
EPS
Source: IDFC Securities Research
JPY has depreciated sharply
JPY/INR Curncy
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Source: Bloomberg
3 |IDFC SECURITIES
27 January 2015
Maruti Suzuki – Q3FY15 result
Income statement
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
435,880
437,006
500,589
610,079
725,218
22.5
0.3
14.5
21.9
393,399
386,047
436,216
42,481
50,959
64,373
69.0
20.0
8,124
Net interest
Depreciation
Pre-tax profit
EBIT margin (%)
5.5
6.9
8.0
10.4
11.2
518,444
611,653
PAT margin (%)
5.5
6.4
7.4
9.3
10.2
91,636
113,565
RoE (%)
14.3
14.1
16.4
21.3
22.8
26.3
42.4
23.9
RoCE (%)
12.9
13.8
16.0
21.9
23.4
8,229
10,003
12,582
16,915
Gearing (x)
(0.0)
0.1
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
(1,898)
(1,759)
(1,559)
(1,359)
(1,159)
18,612
20,844
24,349
28,033
31,981
30,095
36,585
48,468
74,825
97,340
5,989
8,755
11,390
17,958
23,362
Year to 31 Mar
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Reported EPS (Rs)
79.8
92.1
122.7
188.3
244.9
Adj. EPS (Rs)
79.8
92.1
122.7
188.3
244.9
PE (x)
24,106
27,830
37,078
56,867
73,978
Net profit after
non-recurring items
% change
24,106
27,830
47.4
37,078
15.5
56,867
33.2
53.4
73,978
30.1
Balance sheet
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Paid-up capital
1,510
1,510
1,510
1,510
1,510
Reserves & surplus
184,279 208,270 240,046
289,845
354,987
Total shareholders' equity
185,789 209,780 241,556
291,355
356,497
63,112
71,472
72,265
82,547
96,929
Total debt
13,892
18,239
18,239
18,239
18,239
4,087
5,866
5,866
5,866
5,866
81,091
95,577
Deferred tax liabilities
96,370
106,652
121,034
Total equity & liabilities
266,880 305,357 337,927
398,007
477,531
Net fixed assets
117,414 134,118 144,769
151,735
159,755
70,783 101,179 121,179
161,179
211,179
Investments
Total current assets
78,683
70,060
71,979
85,092
106,597
Working capital
15,571
(1,412)
(286)
2,545
9,668
266,880 305,357 337,927
398,007
477,531
Total assets
Cash flow statement
Year to 31 Mar (Rs m)
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Pre-tax profit
30,095
36,585
48,468
74,825
97,340
Depreciation
18,612
20,844
24,349
28,033
31,981
1,866
6,977
(1,375)
1,987
5,572
(23,362)
Chg in Working capital
Total tax paid
(5,989)
(8,755) (11,390) (17,958)
Ext ord. Items & others
(1,387)
(1,360)
-
-
-
Operating cash Inflow
43,197
54,291
60,052
86,888
111,531
(54,705) (37,548) (35,000) (35,000)
(40,000)
Capital expenditure
Free cash flow (a+b)
46.2
40.0
30.0
19.6
15.1
Price/ Book (x)
6.0
5.3
4.6
3.8
3.1
EV/ Net sales (x)
2.6
2.6
2.2
1.8
1.5
EV/ EBITDA (x)
26.2
22.1
17.5
12.2
9.7
5.5
4.8
4.2
3.5
2.9
FY17E
Total current liabilities
Total liabilities
Valuations
EV/ CE (x)
As on 31 Mar (Rs m)
(11,509)
Chg in investments
Debt raised/(repaid)
Capital raised/(repaid)
Dividend (incl. tax)
16,743
25,052
FY17E
51,888
71,531
(9,309) (30,396) (20,000) (40,000)
(50,000)
1,523
4,347
-
-
65
-
-
-
-
(2,517)
(2,828)
(4,241)
(5,302)
(7,069)
EBITDA Margin trend
EBIDTA Margin (%)
14.0
10.5
7.0
3.5
0.0
Q3FY15
Profit after tax
15.7
18.9
Q2FY15
Current tax
15.0
Q1FY15
Other income
FY16E
12.9
Q4FY14
% change
FY15E
11.7
Q3FY14
EBITDA
FY14
9.7
Q2FY14
Operating expenses
FY13
EBITDA margin (%)
Q1FY14
% growth
Year to 31 Mar
Q4FY13
Net sales
Q3FY13
Year to 31 Mar (Rs m)
Key ratios
Shareholding pattern
P ublic &
Others
6.5%
Fo reign
48.2%
P ro mo ters
34.3%
-
Misc
13,636
2,181
-
-
-
Net chg in cash
(8,111)
(9,953)
811
6,586
14,463
Go vt
Ho lding
0.1%
No npro mo ter
co rpo rate
ho lding
0.4%
Institutio ns
10.5%
As of September 2014
4 |IDFC SECURITIES
27 January 2015
Maruti Suzuki – Q3FY15 result
Disclaimer
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Sr. No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Particulars
Yes / No.
Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for investment
banking transaction by IDFC SEC
Whether Research Analyst, IDFC SEC or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of the
company(ies) covered in the Research report
No.
No
Whether compensation has been received by IDFC SEC or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report
No
IDFC SEC or its affiliates have managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the
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brokerage services or for any other products or services from the the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve months
No
No
Explanation of Ratings:
1. Outperformer
2. Neutral
3. Underperformer
:
:
:
More than 5% to Index
Within 0-5% (upside or downside) to Index
Less than 5% to Index
Copyright in this document vests exclusively with IDFC Securities Ltd.
5 |IDFC SECURITIES
27 January 2015
Maruti Suzuki – Q3FY15 result
Annexure
Associates of IDFC Securities Limited
Sr.
No.
Name of Company
Category
Non Banking Finance Company,
SEBI registered Merchant Banker, SEBI registered
Debenture Trustee
1.
IDFC Ltd.
2.
IDFC Capital (USA) INC.
Subsidiary
3.
IDFC Capital (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
Subsidiary
Fund Manager
4.
IDFC Securities Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Subsidiary
Dealing in Securities
5.
IDFC Fund of Funds Limited
Subsidiary
Sponsor Investments
6 |IDFC SECURITIES
Parent
Nature of business
Broker Dealer registered with FINRA
27 January 2015
Maruti Suzuki – Q3FY15 result
www.idfc.com
Analyst
Sector/Industry/Coverage
E-mail
Anish Damania
Shirish Rane
Co-CEO - IDFC Securities, Head - Institutional Equities; Strategy
Head of Research; Construction, Power
[email protected]
[email protected]
Tel.+91-22-6622 2600
Prakash Joshi
Oil & Gas, Metals, Mining
[email protected]
91-22-662 22564
Nitin Agarwal
Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, Agri-inputs
[email protected]
91-22-662 22568
91-22-6622 2522
91-22-662 22575
Hitesh Shah
IT Services & Telecom
[email protected]
91-22-662 22565
Manish Chowdhary
Financials
[email protected]
91-22-662 22563
Bhoomika Nair
Engineering, Cement, Power Equipment, Logistics
[email protected]
91-22-662 22561
Ashish Shah
Construction, Power
[email protected]
91-22-662 22560
Deepak Jain
Vijayaraghavan G
Automobiles, Auto ancillaries
Midcaps
[email protected]
[email protected]
91-22-662 22562
91-22-662 22690
Rohit Dokania
Media & Entertainment
[email protected]
91-22-662 22567
Abhishek Gupta
Telecom, IT services
[email protected]
91-22-662 22661
Mohit Kumar, CFA
Construction, Power
[email protected]
91-22-662 22573
Param Desai
Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate, Agri-inputs
[email protected]
91-22-662 22579
Sameer Narang
Strategy, Economy
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Probal Sen
Oil & Gas
[email protected]
91-22-662 22569
Saumil Mehta
Metals, Mining
[email protected]
91-22-662 22578
Harit Kapoor
FMCG, Retail, Alcoholic Beverages
[email protected]
91-22-662 22649
Sameer Bhise
Financials
[email protected]
91-22-662 22635
Abhishek Ghosh
Engineering, Cement, Power Equipment, Logistics
[email protected]
91-22-662 22658
Saksham Kaushal
Automobiles, Auto ancillaries
[email protected]
91-22-662 22529
Dharmendra Sahu
Database Analyst
[email protected]
91-22-662 22580
Equity Sales/Dealing
Designation
E-mail
Ashish Kalra
Managing Director, Sales
[email protected]
Tel.+91-22-6622 2500
91-22-6622 2525
Rajesh Makharia
Director, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2528
Palak Shah
SVP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2696
Varun Saboo
VP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2558
Arati Mishra
VP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2597
Hemal Ghia
VP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2533
Tanvi Dixit
AVP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2595
Nirav Bhatt
AVP, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2681
Chandan Asrani
Manager, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2540
Sneha Baxi
Manager, Sales
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2537
Suryakant Bhatt
Director & Head - Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2693
Mukesh Chaturvedi
Director, Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2512
Viren Sompura
SVP, Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2527
Rajashekhar Hiremath
SVP, Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2516
Alok Shyamsukha
VP, Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2523
Suketu Parekh
VP, Sales trading
[email protected]
91-22-6622 2674
IDFC Securities
Naman Chambers, C-32, 7th floor,
G- Block, Bandra-Kurla Complex,
Bandra (East), Mumbai 400 051
INDIA
IDFC Capital (USA) Inc,
Regus Business Centre
600 Third Avenue,
2nd Floor,
New York,10016
Tel: +91 22 6622 2600
Tel: +1 646 571 2303
Our research is also available on Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters
For any assistance in access, please contact [email protected]
7 |IDFC SECURITIES
27 January 2015