1. Healthcare

Macro Research
4. februar 2015
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken
Dagens fokus
 Der kommer PMI for servicesektoren for alle de store økonomier i dag,
men fra flere af landene er der allerede kommet flashestimater, som plejer
at være retvisende. Det enkelte lands servicesektor er generelt mindre afhængig af eksporten og mere afhængig af den indenlandske efterspørgsel, især privatforbruget. Derfor kan dagens tal især give et fingerpeg om
udviklingen i de indenlandske økonomier. Størst fokus er der på USA,
hvor både PMI og ISM-service kommer i dag. Sidstnævnte ventes nogenlunde uændret omkring 56,5, idet et privatforbruget som løftes af lavere
energipriser ventes at have holdt hånden under indekset. Det vil også være i tråd med den stigning vi har set i forbrugertilliden (se figur). Vi holder
naturligvis også øje med udviklingen i beskæftigelsesindekset for at finpudse vores skøn for arbejdsmarkedsrapporten, som kommer fredag. En
anden strømpil for beskæftigelsesfremgangen i arbejdsmarkedsrapporten
er ADP-indikatoren, som ventes at falde lidt tilbage til 220.000 fra
241.000 i december.
 Fra euroområdet kommer detailomsætningen for december. Den er nok
uændret i forhold til november, sådan at detailomsætningsvæksten stiger
fra 1,5% y/y til omkring 2,0% y/y i januar.
 Den nytiltrådte græske finansminister Varoutaki fortsætter i dag sin
charmeoffensiv til de europæiske hovedstæder. Han skal i dag i Berlin
mødes med Tysklands finansminister Schaeuble og ECB’s Draghi. På tilsvarende møder de seneste dage har han trukket i land på sit valgløfte om
at kræve eftergivelse af den græske statsgæld, og det har beroliget investorerne og været medvirkende til aktiekursstigninger og fald i græske
statsrenter.
USA: Privatforbrug understøtter Service-ISM
Kilde: Macrobond
Højdepunkter siden sidst
 Markederne: Der herskede en særdeles god stemning i går på de globale





akiemarkeder, og det er fortsat i Asien her til morgen. Blandt årsagerne
kan nævnes, at olieprisen ser ud til at have nået bunden for denne gang
og mindsket frygt for græske euro-problemer. Det førte samtidig til rentestigninger, især i USA. EUR er styrket over for USD.
Danmark: Nationalbanken solgte DKK og købte valuta for svimlende
106,6 mia. DKK i januar på linje med vores forventning (se figur). Nationalbanken har allerede reageret på den massive valutaindstrømning ved
at sænke renten i flere omgange og ved at stoppe for udstedelse af statsobligationer for at påvirke rentedannelsen i nedadgående retning for obligationer med længere løbetid. Hvis styrkelsespresset på DKK og dermed
interventionerne fortsætter, kommer der højst sandsynligt flere rentenedsættelser, selvom grænsen for, hvor negativ renten kan blive, nærmer sig.
Derfor kan andre utraditionelle tiltag for at overbevise investorerne om, at
det er formålsløst at spekulere i at Danmark opgiver sin binding til euroen,
heller ikke udelukkes.
Kina: PMI for servicesektoren fra Markit faldt til 51,8 i januar fra 53,4 i
december. Servicesektoren i Kina er langsomt ved at få større betydning
efter økonomien i et årti eller to primært har været drevet af fremstillingssektoren. Dagens tal vidner om, at også servicesektoren mærker den
igangværende opbremsning i økonomien.
Japan: Service-PMI faldt marginalt fra 51,7 til 51,3 i januar.
USA: Fabriksordrerne faldt i december med 3,4% m/m, hvilket var et lidt
større fald end ventet. Faldet var på linje med hvad vi så i ordrerne på varige goder i sidste uge.
Euroområdet: Producentpriserne i euroområdet faldt med 1% fra november til december, Det bragte årsvækstraten ned i 2,7% y/y, hvilket var lavere end ventet. Faldet hænger selvfølgelig sammen med de faldende
energipriser, og understreger, at der ikke er noget inflationspres i euroområdet for tiden,.
For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Danmark: Abnorm stor valutaintervention i januar
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 4. februar 2015
Markedskommentarer
Aktier
Renter
Valuta
OMXC20 CAP (+0,62% / indeks 864,95)
endte i positivt territorium efter opmuntrende
meldinger fra Grækenland om, at den græske
regering ikke vil arbejde på en gældsnedbringelse som tidligere, men derimod arbejde på
en ny afdragsordning.
Obligationsrenterne havde pilen opad i går.
Især i USA, men også i Tyskland og Danmark. Hermed blev lidt af mandagens store
danske rentefald således reverseret. Olieprisen er steget nogle dage nu, og det har ført til
spekulationer om at bunden er nået i denne
omgang. Det har lettet bekymringerne for den
lave inflation, og sendt renterne op. Samtidig
har den gode aktiemarkedsstemning sendt
investorerne væk fra obligationer, hvilket har
bidraget til rentestigninger.
EUR styrkedes i går over for USD, bl.a. pga.
mindskede bekymringer for situationen i
Grækenland og generelt øget risikoappetit.
Den græske finansminister har tilsyneladende
opgivet sit valgløfte om at kræve en eftergivelse af den græske statsgæld, og arbejder
nu i stedet for en løsning, hvor afdragsprofilen
blot ændres.
I toppen af indekset endte I toppen af indekset
endte Vestas (+3,69% / kurs 269,90) i takt
med, at priserne på olie er steget med mere
end 10% de seneste døgn og aktien samtidig
fik en del medvind fra annonceringen af en
kinesisk ordre på 48 MW. FLSmidth (+3,47%
/ kurs 288,90) fulgte godt med godt hjulpet af
stigende råvarepriser, som kan føre til en øget
efterspørgsel på mineselskabets udstyr.
I den anden ende af indekset endte Pandora
(-6,94% / kurs 428,00) efter et internationalt
finanshus sænkede kursmålet og anbefalingen.
Den græske 10-årige statsrente faldt endnu
mere, således at spændet til Tyskland klørte
ind. Den nytiltrådte græske finansminister
Varoutaki er på charmeoffensiv til de europæiske hovedstæder, og han har trukket i land
på sit valgløfte om at kræve eftergivelse af
den græske statsgæld. Det har beroliget
investorerne og været medvirkende til aktiekursstigninger og fald i græske statsrenter.
JPY svækkedes lidt over for USD i går og her
til morgen.
Som vi beskrev i går svækkedes AUD i går
morges med omkring 2% efter den australske
centralbank overraskende sænkede renten.
Svækkelsen blev dog mere end reverseret i
gårsdagens handel i takt med stigende oliepris og tiltagende risikoappetit, som jo normalt
er positivt for råvarevalutaer som AUD.
.
Dagens finansielle nøgletal
Aktier
Aktuelt
Valuta
%-Ændring
10-årige renter
Aktuelt
Ændring
Aktuelt
Råvarer
Ændring
Aktuelt
OMXC20CAP
865.0
0.62
USD/JPY
117.7
0.730
USA
1.81
0.14
CRB
227.4
Stoxx600
370.3
0.82
EUR/USD
1.148
0.015
Euroområdet
0.35
0.03
Brent oil (1M fut)
FTSE
6871.8
1.32
USD/DKK
6.483
-0.087
Danmark
0.11
0.04
Gold (spot)
S&P500
2050.0
1.44
CHF/DKK
7.007
-0.073
Nasdaq
4727.7
1.09
GBP/DKK
9.837
-0.030
Hang Seng
24760.3
0.84
SEK/DKK
0.790
0.000
Nikkei
17644.5
1.78
NOK/DKK
0.861
0.002
%-Ændring
3.17
57.8
4.76
1263.7
-0.99
+6 mdr.
+12 mdr.
Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30
Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger
Officielle renter
Aktuelt
+3 mdr.
+6 mdr.
USA
Euroland
UK
Danmark
Sverige
Norge
0.125
0.05
0.50
0.05
0.00
1.25
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.05
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.05
0.75
0.05
0.00
1.00
+12 mdr.
1.00
0.05
1.00
0.05
0.25
1.00
Aktuelt
10-årig statsobligationer
+3 mdr.
+6 mdr. +12 mdr.
1.81
0.35
1.46
0.11
0.63
1.29
2.30
0.70
1.85
0.50
1.00
1.75
2.40
0.90
1.95
0.80
1.30
1.75
2.50
1.00
2.10
1.00
1.60
1.75
Aktuelt
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/DKK
EUR/DKK
SEK/DKK
NOK/DKK
1.148
117.6
6.486
7.444
0.7899
0.8614
Valuta
+3 mdr.
1.16
121.0
6.42
7.45
0.797
0.837
1.14
130.0
6.54
7.45
0.828
0.837
1.09
140.0
6.83
7.45
0.851
0.851
2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 4. februar 2015
Kommende begivenheder
Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber
Dato
03/02/15
04/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
06/02/15
Selskab
Danske Bank
Matas
IC Group
Lundbeck
North Media
Spar Nord
TDC
DSV
Regnskab
Årsregnskab
3. kvartal
2. kvartal
Årsregnskab
Årsregnskab
Årsregnskab
Årsregnskab
Årsregnskab
Økonomisk kalender
Dato
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
02/02/15
03/02/15
03/02/15
03/02/15
03/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
04/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
05/02/15
06/02/15
06/02/15
06/02/15
06/02/15
06/02/15
06/02/15
06/02/15
06/02/15
06/02/15
06/02/15
Tid
02:35
02:45
06:00
08:30
09:00
09:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
14:30
14:30
14:30
14:30
15:45
16:00
16:00
16:00
/2015
11:00
16:00
16:00
16:00
02:35
02:45
08:30
09:50
09:55
10:00
10:00
10:30
11:00
13:00
14:15
15:45
16:00
18:45
08:00
13:00
13:00
13:30
14:30
14:30
14:30
14:30
08:00
09:00
09:00
14:30
14:30
14:30
14:30
14:30
14:30
21:00
Land
Japan
Kina
Japan
Sverige
Norge
Schweiz
EMU
UK
Danmark
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
EMU
USA
Danmark
Danmark
Japan
Kina
Sverige
Frankrig
Tyskland
EMU
EMU
UK
EMU
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
Tyskland
UK
UK
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
Tyskland
Schweiz
Danmark
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
Indikator
Periode
Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI
Jan F
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Jan F
Vehicle Sales YoY
Jan
PMI Manufacturing
Jan
Manufacturing PMI
Jan
PMI Manufacturing
Jan
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Jan F
Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA
Jan
Danish PMI Survey
Jan
Personal Income
Dec
Personal Spending
Dec
PCE Deflator MoM/YoY
Dec
PCE Core MoM/YoY
Dec
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Jan F
Construction Spending MoM
Dec
ISM Manufacturing
Jan
ISM Prices Paid
Jan
U.S. President Obama to Release Fiscal 2016 Budget
PPI MoM/YoY
Dec
Factory Orders
Dec
Foreign Reserves
Jan
Change in Currency Reserves
Jan
Markit Japan Services PMI
Jan
HSBC China Services PMI
Jan
PMI Services
Jan
Markit France Services PMI
Jan F
Markit Germany Services PMI
Jan F
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Jan F
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Jan F
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
Jan
Retail Sales MoM/YoY
Dec
MBA Mortgage Applications
30. Jan
ADP Employment Change
Jan
Markit US Services PMI
Jan
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Jan
Fed's Mester Speaks on Economy and Banking in Columbus
Factory Orders MoM/YoY
Dec
BOE Asset Purchase Target
Feb
Bank of England Bank Rate
05. Feb
Challenger Job Cuts YoY
Jan
Unit Labor Costs
4Q P
Initial Jobless Claims
31. Jan
Continuing Claims
24. Jan
Trade Balance
Dec
Industrial Production SA MoM/YoY
Dec
Foreign Currency Reserves
Jan
Industrial Production MoM
Dec
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Jan
Change in Private Payrolls
Jan
Change in Manufact. Payrolls
Jan
Unemployment Rate
Jan
Average Hourly Earnings MoM/YoY
Jan
Underemployment Rate
Jan
Consumer Credit
Dec
Survey
-49.8
-55.9
49.3
50.6
51.0
52.7
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%/0.8%
0.0%/1.3%
53.7
0.7%
54.5
39.5
SHB
-49.8
-55.6
--51.0
--------54.0
--
Forrige
52.1
49.8
-8.8%
55.4
49.8
53.6(r)
51.0
52.7(r)
54.2(r)
0.3%(r)
0.5%(r)
-0.2%/1.2%
0.0%/1.4%
53.7
-0.3%
55.1
38.5
Faktisk
52.2
49.7
-18.9%
55.1
51.9
48.2
51.0
53.0
55.9
0.3%
-0.3%
-0.2%/0.7%
0.0%/1.3%
53,9
0.40%
53.5
35
-0.7%/-2.5%
-2.0%
----56.0
49.5
52.7
52.3
52.2
56.3
0.0%/2.0%
-225K
54.1
56.5
-1.5%/0.7%
375B
0.50%
-1.1%
290K
2400K
-$38.0B
0.4%/-0.3%
--235K
228K
10K
5.6%
0.3%/1.9%
-$15.000B
--556B
-------------56.5
------------5.0%
250K
--5.5%
0.4%/----
-0.3%/-1.6%
-0.7%
446.8B
-51.7
53.4
55.4
49.5
52.7
52.3
52.2
55.8
0.6%/1.5%
-3.2%
241K
54.0
56.5
--2.4%/-0.4%
375B
0.50%
6.6%
-1.0%
265K
2385K
-$39.0B
-0.1%/-0.5%
495.1B
-0.2%
252K
240K
17K
5.6%
-0.2%/1.7%
11.2%
$14.081B
1.0%/-2.7%
-3.4%
564.1
106.6B
51.3
51.8
Jes Asmussen ([email protected]); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, ([email protected]); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, ([email protected])
Ansvarsfraskrivelse:
Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud
om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gæld er pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken
påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse e ller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående
aftale.
3
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Contact information
Capital Markets
Debt Capital Markets
Trading Strategy
Tony Lindlöf
Head of Debt Capital Markets
+46 8 701 25 10
Claes Måhlén
Head, Chief Strategist
+46 8 463 45 35
Per Jäderberg
Head of Corporate Loans
+46 8 701 33 51
Johan Sahlström
Chief Credit Strategist
+46 8 463 45 37
Måns Niklasson
Head of Acquisition Finance
+46 8 701 52 84
Ronny Berg
Senior Credit Strategist
+47 22 82 30 36
Ulf Stejmar
Head of Corporate Bonds
+46 8 463 45 79
Ola Eriksson
Senior Credit Strategist
+46 8 463 47 49
Martin Jansson
Senior Commodity Strategist
+46 8 461 23 43
Nils Kristian Knudsen
Senior Strategist FX/FI
+47 22 82 30 10
Andreas Skogelid
Senior Strategist FI
+46 8 701 56 80
Pierre Carlsson
Strategist FX
+46 8 463 46 17
Paul Betton
Credit Analyst
+46 8 463 45 78
Macro Research
Jan Häggström
Chief Economist
+46 8 701 10 97
Petter Lundvik
USA, Special Analysis
+46 8 701 33 97
Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark
+45 467 91619
Gunnar Tersman
Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets
+46 8 701 20 53
Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen
+45 467 91229
Helena Trygg
Japan, United Kingdom
+46 8 701 12 84
Anders Brunstedt
Sweden
+46 8 701 54 32
Norway
Eva Dorenius
Web Editor
+46 8 701 50 54
Denmark
Jes Asmussen
Sweden
Finland
Tiina Helenius
Head, Macro Research
+358 10 444 2404
Tuulia Asplund
Finland
+358 10 444 2403
Head, Macro Research
+45 467 91203
China and Latin America
Knut Anton Mork
Head, Macro Research
+47 22 39 71 81
Nils Kristian Knudsen
Senior Strategist FX/FI
+47 22 82 30 10
Kari Due-Andresen
Norway
+47 22 39 70 07
Marius Gonsholt Hov
Norway
+47 22 39 73 40
Regional Sales
Copenhagen
Kristian Nielsen
Luleå/Umeå
+45 46 79 12 69
Ove Larsson
Gothenburg
Per Wall
Luxembourg
+46 31 743 31 20
Snorre Tysland
Gävle
+46 26 172 103
Helsinki
Mika Rämänen
+358 10 444 62 20
Linköping
Fredrik Lundgren
+46 13 28 91 10
London
Ray Spiers
+44 207 578 86 12
Blasieholmstorg 11
SE-106 70 Stockholm
Tel. +46 8 701 10 00
Fax. +46 8 701 28 50
Ulf Larsson
+46 40 24 54 04
Oslo
From Sweden to
N.Y. & Singapore
020-58 64 46
Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ)
Stockholm
+352 274 868 251
Malmö
Petter Holm
Toll-free numbers
+46 90 154 719
Copenhagen
Havneholmen 29
DK-1561 Copenhagen V
Tel. +45 46 79 12 00
Fax. +45 46 79 15 52
Petter Fjellheim
+47 22 82 30 29
Stockholm
Malin Nilén
From Norway to
N.Y. & Singapore
800 40 333
Helsinki
Aleksanterinkatu 11
FI-00100 Helsinki
Tel. +358 10 444 11
Fax. +358 10 444 2578
From Denmark to
N.Y. & Singapore
8001 72 02
Oslo
Tjuvholmen Allé 11,
Postboks 1249 Vika
NO-0110 Oslo
Tel. +47 223 97 000
Fax. +47 2233 6915
+46 8 701 27 70
From Finland to
N.Y. & Singapore
0800 91 11 00
London
3 Thomas More Square
London GB-E1W 1WY
Tel. +44 207 578 8668
Fax. +44 207 578 8090
Within the US
1-800 396-2758
New York
Handelsbanken Markets
Securities, Inc.
875 Third Avenue, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10022-7218
Tel. +1 212 326 5153
Fax. +1 212 326 2730
FINRA, SIPC