1. Ingeniería

ADMISI Forex Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
USDINR Recap
NSE
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Previous Close Open High
62.16
62.54
62.95
63.30
63.63
62.24
62.61
63.00
63.38
63.72
62.19
62.53
62.93
63.31
63.55
62.35
62.73
63.13
63.46
63.82
Spread
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
MCXSX
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
62.24
62.61
63.01
63.40
63.81
62.16
62.45
62.84
63.20
63.50
62.35
62.73
63.12
63.40
63.81
Spread
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
BSE
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Low
62.00
62.39
62.80
63.15
63.46
Mar-15
-0.37
Net
Chg.
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.09
0.09
Apr-15
-0.77
-0.39
Net
Chg.
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.13
0.38
Apr-15
-0.77
-0.40
Net
Chg.
62.16 62.15 62.35 62.00 Unch
62.54 62.52 62.73 62.39 Unch
62.99 62.89 63.11 62.83 Unch
63.05
Unch
63.42
Unch
Previous Close Open High
62.16
62.54
62.99
63.05
63.42
62.00
62.39
62.80
63.14
63.50
Mar-15
-0.37
Previous Close Open High
62.16
62.54
62.92
63.27
63.42
Low
Spread
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Low
Mar-15
-0.38
Apr-15
-0.83
-0.52
%
Chg.
0.12
0.11
0.08
0.13
0.15
Volume
1630888
107827
20011
1100
1964
May-15
-1.15
-0.77
-0.38
%
Chg.
0.13
0.12
0.14
0.21
0.61
%
Chg.
-
250107
7548
1363
88
142
OI
Change
-239404
36725
7021
156
311
% Vol.
Chg.
11.37
-65.36
130.24
-13.73
-21.11
Open
Interest
330658
93148
33623
3176
2099
OI
Change
-21230
1626
682
-20
127
% Vol.
Chg.
16.91
-37.84
-47.51
-
Open
Interest
522358
119471
3001
604
310
OI
Change
-23748
3613
222
Unch
Unch
Jun-15
-1.57
-1.19
-0.80
-0.41
Volume
1168593
17178
264
-
May-15
-0.74
-0.52
-0.06
Open
Interest
1296912
339553
135929
39679
55845
Jun-15
-1.48
-1.11
-0.72
-0.34
Volume
May-15
-1.16
-0.79
-0.39
% Vol.
Chg.
9.65
-27.90
1.02
-45.73
-58.40
Jun-15
-1.26
-0.88
-0.43
-0.37
1
ADMISI Forex Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
Currency Options NSE
CALLS
Put-Call
Ratio O/I
22.20
26.00
30.35
1.60
13.98
17.98
2.47
0.91
0.43
0.34
0.25
0.30
0.04
0.83
0.17
Put-Call
Ratio Vol
123.66
1.00
31.32
4.71
57.01
65.12
6.90
1.83
1.17
0.40
0.17
0.01
0.06
0.15
1.00
0.07
PUTS
Strike
OI
Volume IV
LTP
Price
1597
216
12.63 2.345 60.00
10
10
0.00 1.848 60.25
408
308
10.67 1.850 60.50
506
17
4.66 1.420 60.75
4484
872
5.31 1.235 61.00
353
76
7.81 1.123 61.25
33627
10182
5.76 0.830 61.50
3112
3375
5.95 0.660 61.75
134241 51330
6.01 0.508 62.00
18252
22175
6.23 0.390 62.25
117990 80165
6.35 0.290 62.50
892
2865
6.78 0.230 62.75
72414
43074
6.66 0.155 63.00
352
3
7.18 0.128 63.25
71033
12119
7.20 0.088 63.50
12
10
7.74 0.075 63.75
24388
12344
7.43 0.0425 64.00
LTP
IV
Volume
OI
0.010
0.010
0.025
0.048
0.060
0.095
0.145
0.215
0.320
0.445
0.598
0.828
0.960
1.290
1.575
1.8
6.85
6.18
6.54
6.72
6.24
6.20
6.15
6.13
6.32
6.44
6.62
7.77
7.00
0.00
3.86
6.62
6.2
26710
10
9648
80
49716
4949
70212
6170
59866
8871
13378
15
2573
1814
10
875
35455
260
12383
808
62671
6348
82960
2843
57467
6268
29249
21838
2562
10
4111
Currency Options BSE
Put-Call
Ratio O/I
257.500
1.000
0.750
5.656
35.417
6.941
3.399
1.426
0.085
0.151
0.143
0.027
0.000
1.000
Put-Call
Ratio Vol
0.043
0.002
21.000
598.288
158.060
5.419
1.013
0.896
0.057
0.094
0.014
0.017
0.283
0.891
0.238
Call
LTP Volume
OI
2.235
1010
10
1.94
5210
10
---1.3675
1
16
1.26
170
221
1.045
50
36
0.83
2750
1623
0.6625
2882
589
0.5125 10654
3645
0.3925
8492
3144
0.29
15644 10411
0.2375 52545
105
0.17
8766
2504
0.105
10610
348
0.0975
3380
3498
0.0875
8440
10
Strike
Price
60.00
60.25
60.50
60.75
61.00
61.25
61.50
61.75
62.00
62.25
62.50
62.75
63.00
63.25
63.50
63.75
Put
OI
Volume LTP
2575
43
0.01
10
10
0.0125
1882
59948 0.0225
12
21
0.045
1250 101709 0.0575
1275
7903
0.0925
11265 14902
0.145
2002
2919
0.2225
5196
9549
0.32
268
482
0.41
1572
1467
0.5675
15
749
0.7575
67
152
0.8775
-3000
1.1525
1
3010
1.3575
10
2010
1.59
2
ADMISI Forex Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
Major Currency Futures
Currency
Month
Current/Close
U.S. Dollar Index
Mar-15
94.920
British Pound
Mar-15
1.508
Canadian Dollar
Mar-15
0.785
Japanese Yen
Mar-15
0.851
Swiss Franc
Mar-15
1.083
Euro FX
Mar-15
1.132
Australian Dollar
Mar-15
0.777
Mexican Peso
Jun-15
0.066
New Zealand Dollar
Mar-15
0.724
South African Rand
Mar-15
0.085
Brazilian Real
Mar-15
0.370
Source –Investing.com
Other Currencies Pairs
Pair
Current/Close
Chg. %
EUR/USD
1.1317
0.27%
GBP/USD
1.508
0.10%
USD/JPY
117.56
0.05%
USD/CHF
0.926
0.65%
AUD/USD
0.7782
0.21%
EUR/GBP
0.7504
0.11%
USD/CAD
1.2733
0.01%
NZD/USD
0.7268
0.19%
EUR/JPY
133.05
0.29%
GBP/JPY
177.29
0.16%
Source –Investing.com
Other Currencies vs. Dollar Current/Close Previous %Change
Chinese Yuan
6.2589
6.2495
-0.15%
Indonesian Rupiah
12705
12665
-0.32%
Korean Won
1102.5
1101.4
-0.10%
Thailand baht
32.66
32.72
0.18%
South African Rand
11.626
11.6435
0.15%
Brazilian Real
2.6814
2.6814
Russian Rouble
69.42
69.0825
-0.49%
Source –Reuters
Date
30/01/2015
29/01/2015
USD
61.76
61.50
RBI Reference rate
GBP
EURO
93.13
70.03
93.12
69.33
YEN
52.40
52.25
Source: RBI
3
ADMISI Forex Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
Currency
Rupee
US $
1 Rupee =
1 US $ =
1 Euro € =
1 UK £ =
1 Aus $ =
1 Japanese ¥ =
1 Singapore $=
1 Renminbi =
1 Taiwan $ =
1
0.0162
61.86
1
70.0011 1.1316
93.3032 1.5083
48.1147 0.7778
0.5262 0.0085
45.7409 0.7394
10.0266 0.1621
1.9543 0.0316
CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE
Taiwan
Japanese Singapore
Renminbi
Euro € UK £ Aus $
$
¥
$
0.0143 0.0107 0.0208 1.9004
0.0219
0.0997
0.5117
0.8837 0.663 1.2857 117.56
1.3524
6.1696
31.654
1
0.7503 1.4549 133.0316
1.5304
6.9816
35.8198
1.3329
1
1.9392 177.3152
2.0398
9.3056
47.7436
0.6873 0.5157
1
91.4382
1.0519
4.7987
24.6205
0.0075 0.0056 0.0109
1
0.0115
0.0525
0.2693
0.6534 0.4902 0.9507 86.9269
1
4.562
23.4058
0.1432 0.1075 0.2084 19.0547
0.2192
1
5.1306
0.0279 0.0209 0.0406 3.7139
0.0427
0.1949
1
Source: Moneycontrol
Currency
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CHF
CAD
AUD
CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CHF
1
0.8836 0.6631 117.56 0.926
1.1317
1
0.7504 133.05 1.048
1.508 1.3325
1
177.29 1.3964
0.0085 0.0075 0.0056
1
0.5044
1.0799 0.9542 0.7162 126.98
1
0.7854 0.6939 0.5208 92.33 0.7272
0.7784 0.6878 0.5161 91.52 0.7208
CAD
1.2732
1.4409
1.9202
0.0108
1.3751
1
0.9912
AUD
1.2847
1.4538
1.9373
0.0067
1.3873
0.698
1
Source: Investing.com
Equity Markets
Dow 30 (Jan 30)
S&P 500 (Jan 30)
Nasdaq (Jan 30)
Bovespa (Jan 30)
DAX (Jan 30)
FTSE 100 (Jan 30)
CAC 40 (Jan 30)
Nikkei 225 (Feb 02)
S&P/ASX 200 (Feb 02)
Shanghai (Feb 02)
Hang Seng (Feb 02)
Taiwan Weighted (Feb 02)
STI (Feb 02)
KOSPI (Feb 02)
IDX Composite (Feb 02)
CNX Nifty (Jan 30)
BSE Sensex (Jan 30)
Current/Close
17164.95
1994.99
4635.24
46907.68
10694.32
6749.40
4604.25
17579.78
5626.60
3145.53
24372.00
9373.84
3408.89
1947.09
5283.27
8808.90
29182.95
Change
-251.90
-26.26
-48.17
-854.56
-43.55
-61.20
-27.18
-94.61
38.28
-64.83
-135.05
11.93
17.69
-2.17
-6.14
-143.45
-498.82
% Change
-1.45%
-1.30%
-1.03%
-1.79%
-0.41%
-0.90%
-0.59%
-0.54%
0.68%
-2.02%
-0.55%
0.13%
0.52%
-0.11%
-0.12%
-1.60%
-1.68%
Source –Investing.com
4
ADMISI Forex Research
February 02, 2015
Reporting
Date
Debt/
Equity
Equity
30-Jan-15
Debt
Investment
Route
Stock
Exchange
Primary
market &
others
Sub-total
Stock
Exchange
Primary
market &
others
Sub-total
Total
Total for January
Total for 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
Gross
Purchases
(Rs Crore)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crore)
Net
Investment
(Rs Crore)
Net
Investment
US($) million
8775.21
6984.02
1791.19
291.25
34.71
0
34.71
5.64
8809.92
6984.02
1825.9
296.89
1666.11
696.9
969.21
157.6
922.7
126.8
795.9
129.42
2588.81
11398.73
141227.34
141227.34
823.7
7807.72
107539.15
107539.15
1765.11
3591.01
33688.19
33688.19
287.02
583.91
5452.88
5452.88
Conversion
(1 USD TO
INR)*
Rs.61.4998
Source – NSDL, the data presented above constitutes trades conducted by FPIs/FIIs on and upto the previous trading day(s).
Off shore
INR/USD
DGCX February
CME February
Current
160.43
160.60
Conversion in
USDINR
62.33
62.27
Previous
160.75
160.63
Conversion in
USDINR
62.21
62.25
Source – Reuters and CME
Economic Data
January 30, 2015
Country
NZD
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
GBP
AUD
JPY
CHF
EUR
GBP
GBP
EUR
Economic Data
Building Permits M/M Dec
Unemployment Rate Dec
Household Spending Y/Y Dec
National CPI Core Y/Y Dec
Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jan
Industrial Production M/M Dec P
GfK Consumer Sentiment Jan
PPI Q/Q Q4
Housing Starts Y/Y Dec
KOF Leading Indicator Jan
Italian Unemployment Rate Dec P
Mortgage Approvals Dec
M4 Money Supply M/M Dec
Eurozone Unemployment Rate Dec
Actual
-2.10%
3.40%
-3.40%
2.50%
2.20%
1.00%
1
0.10%
-14.70%
97
12.90%
60.0K
0.10%
11.40%
Expected
3.50%
-2.30%
2.60%
2.20%
1.20%
-2
0.30%
-14.80%
94.7
13.50%
59.0K
0.50%
11.50%
Previous
10.00%
3.50%
-2.50%
2.70%
2.30%
-0.50%
-4
0.20%
-14.30%
98.7
13.40%
59.0K
0.00%
11.50%
5
ADMISI Forex Research
February 02, 2015
EUR
EUR
CAD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Economic Data Contd….
Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jan
Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jan A
GDP M/M Nov
Employment Cost Index Q4
GDP (Annualized) Q4 A
GDP Price Index Q4 A
Chicago PMI Jan
U. of Michigan Confidence Jan F
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
-0.60%
0.50%
-0.20%
0.60%
2.60%
0.00%
59.4
98.1
-0.50%
0.70%
0.10%
0.70%
3.10%
0.90%
58
98.2
-0.20%
0.70%
0.30%
0.70%
5.00%
1.40%
58.3
98.2
Actual
0.10%
49.7
Expected
Previous
0.00%
49.8
54
48.4
51
52.5
0.40%
0.60%
-0.20%
1.20%
0.00%
1.40%
-0.30%
55.5
38.5
February 02, 2015
Country
AUD
CNY
CHF
EUR
EUR
GBP
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Economic Data
TD Securities Inflation M/M Jan
HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jan F
SVME-PMI Jan
Italy Manufacturing PMI Jan
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan F
PMI Manufacturing Jan
Personal Income Dec
Personal Spending Dec
PCE Deflator M/M Dec
PCE Deflator Y/Y Dec
PCE Core M/M Dec
PCE Core Y/Y Dec
Construction Spending M/M Dec
ISM Manufacturing Jan
ISM Prices Paid Jan
49.8
54.5
49.3
51
52.9
0.20%
-0.30%
-0.30%
0.00%
1.40%
0.70%
55
40
Domestic Markets






The Rupee fell a second consecutive session on Friday on continued purchases of Dollar from
banks on behalf of oil marketing companies.
Rupee’s fall also came after India’s fiscal deficit in the first nine months of the current financial
year that began Apr. 1 totalled 5.32 trillion rupees, 100.2% of the full-year aim, government data
showed today.
Initially the Rupee had strengthened after government's sale of a 10% stake in Coal India Ltd was
fully covered by mid-afternoon on Friday data from stock exchanges showed.
Concluding the largest ever disinvestment, the Centre on Friday raised Rs 22,557.63 crore or Rs
225.6 billion from the sale of its 10% shareholding in Coal India (CIL).
Foreign investors were net buyers of $583.91 million in Indian markets yesterday, according to the
National Securities Depository Ltd. Data from NSDL showed so far in 2015, overseas investors'
have purchased a total $5.452 billion worth of domestic shares and debt.
Indian government bonds rose on Friday as investors stepped up purchases amid foreign fund
inflows. The benchmark 8.40% bond maturing in 2024 closed at 104.71 rupees, yielding 7.69%,
from its previous close of 104.58 rupees.
6
ADMISI Forex Research
February 02, 2015



Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
Investors now await the RBI’s bi-monthly monetary policy schedules tomorrow. Investors expect
the central bank to keep rates steady.
In other news, India’s economy expanded 6.9% in the last fiscal year ended Mar. 31 according to a
new time- series data that was unveiled today, sharply higher than the previously estimated 4.7%,
the government said.
India's foreign exchange reserves fell to $322.04 billion as of January 23, from $322.14 billion in
the previous week, the Reserve Bank of India said on Friday. The fall was driven by a $19.7
million decline in foreign-currency assets to $297.51 billion, according to the RBI data. The
reserves rose to a record-high last week.
International Markets











The dollar remained broadly supported as the release of tepid U.S. data failed to dampen
optimism over the strength of the country's economic recovery.
In a report, Bureau of Economic Analysis said U.S. gross domestic product rose 2.6% in the last
quarter of 2014, down from a previous estimate of 3.0% and from a growth rate of 5.0% in the
three months to September.
Separately, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index ticked down to 98.1 in
January from 98.2 the previous month, compared to expectations.
While, Chicago purchasing managers' index rose to 59.4 this month from 58.8 in December.
In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls
report for further indications on the strength of the recovery in the labor market.
The Euro ended lower after Eurostat reported that the annual rate of euro zone inflation fell by
0.6% in January, after a 0.2% slip in December.
The downside was limited after euro zone’s unemployment rate ticked down to 11.4% in
December from 11.5% the previous month.
Meanwhile, Greece’s new government said it will not cooperate with the International Monetary
Fund and the European Union and will not seek an extension to its bailout program, underlining
fears over a clash with its international creditors.
The yen weakened on Monday even though weaker-than-expected data for China and the U.S.
underscored concerns that the world economy is stumbling.
Meanwhile, the dollar rallied 1.74% against the Russian Ruble to end at 70.05 after Russia's
central bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate to 15.0%, one month after surprising
markets by hiking rates to 17.0%.
Data from CFTC showed that speculators less bearish on Japanese Yen, while remaining slightly
bearish on the Euro.
7
ADMISI Forex Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
Source: Reuters
USD Index (94.778)
Trade Recommendation – None.
Source: Reuters
EURO (1.131)
Trade Recommendation – None.
DOLLAR INDEX AND EURO OUTLOOK – U.S. Dollar could trade range bound to firm. Support is at
94.30. Resistance is at 95.06. The Euro could trade range bound to weak. Key support is at 1.1208. Key
resistance is at 1.1429. The Euro has remained oversold for some time and could witness some covering of
shorts.
8
ADMISI Forex Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
Source: Reuters
USDINR (62.0523)
Trade Recommendation – None.
RUPEE OUTLOOK - Indian rupee could likely depreciate against the dollar tracking its Asian peers, as
disappointing factory activity data from China fuelled concerns of a global economic slowdown and
weighed on risk appetite. However, overall positive sentiments domestically and inflows could limit the
depreciation. Key support level is at 61.71. Key resistance level is at 62.23.
9
ADMISI Forex Research
February 02, 2015
Sriram Iyer: [email protected]
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is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other
derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.
Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock's price movement and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a currency/commodity’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a
currency/commodity's fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material
only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be
regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that
any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our investment
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