1. Healthcare

EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Dealer’s Diary
Domestic Indices
Indian markets are expected to open negative, tracking the SGX Nifty and most of
Asian markets.
BSE Sensex
1.0
292
29,571
Nifty
0.8
75
8,911
US markets ended the session off their worst levels of the day but still posted
steep losses. A negative reaction to earnings news from several big-name
companies contributed to the initial sell-off on Wall Street.
MID CAP
0.8
85
10,780
SMALL CAP
0.5
58
11,424
The majority of the European markets pulled back from 7-year highs on Tuesday.
Investor sentiment was impacted by concerns over Greece and the weak
performance of the U.S. markets.
BSE HC
News Analysis
Cipla - Update
Ranbaxy Labs - Update
Result Preview: Ranbaxy Labs
0.3
53
15,560
(0.1)
(10)
8,345
BANKEX
2.3
528
23,512
AUTO
1.2
249
20,356
(0.6)
(63)
10,447
OIL & GAS
BSE IT
Global Indices
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
29,159
29,365
29,492
29,698
29,824
NIFTY
8,787
8,849
8,887
8,949
8,987
Net Inflows (Jan 23, 2015)
Rs cr
Purch
FII
7,216
789
MFs
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
5,082
2,134
7,571
104,921
881
(92)
1,376
31,714
FII Derivatives (Jan 27, 2015)
Rs cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
10,731
9,000
1,732
26,505
Stock Futures
22,841
23,598
(757)
58,807
Chg (%)
(Pts)
NASDAQ
(1.9)
(90)
4,681
FTSE
(0.6)
(41)
6,812
Nikkei
(0.1)
(16)
17,752
Hang Sang
(0.1)
(26)
24,782
0.4
12
3,425
(0.7)
(23)
3,330
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian ADR
INFY
Chg (%)
(1.5)
(0.6)
$35.1
WIT
0.7
0.1
$13.0
IBN
0.8
0.1
$13.0
HDB
0.3
0.2
$62.0
Advances / Declines
BSE
Gainer
MAX
Price (Rs)
1,410
728
Declines
1,549
812
97
55
Unchanged
Volumes (Rs cr)
BSE
3,891
NSE
21,480
Loser
chg (%)
Company
Price (Rs)
chg (%)
493
8.4
UNIONBK
238
(5.2)
BAJFINANCE
4164
7.9
GRUH
291
(5.0)
EICHERMOT
16086
5.9
DRREDDY
3211
(4.0)
620
5.9
INFY
2136
(3.5)
3401
5.7
CAIRN
239
(3.5)
IBULHSGFIN
BEL
NSE
Advances
Gainers / Losers
Company
(Close)
17,387
Shanghai Com
S1
9,906
11,042
(291)
Markets Today
S2
5
(186)
(1.6)
Straits Times
Indices
0.0
(1.7)
Dow Jones
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
The trend deciding level for the day is 29,492 / 8,887 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 29,698 – 29,824 / 8,949 – 8,987 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
29,492 / 8,887 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct towards
29,365 – 29,159 / 8,849 – 8,787 levels.
(Pts) (Close)
BSE PSU
METAL
Back home, Indian shares extended their winning streak for the eighth
consecutive session on Tuesday after U.S. President Barack Obama pledged $4
billion in investments and loans aimed at boosting trade and investment ties as
well as jobs in India.
Chg (%)
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
1
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Cipla- Update
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) said it approved Teva
Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd's first generic equivalent to Nexium
(esomeprazole
magnesium) Delayed-Release Capsules in the United
States, the agency's first such approval for the drug. Nexium had sales of
~US$6bn in global sales (as on November ‘2014). Nexium, known chemically
as esomeprazole, is a proton pump inhibitor used to reduce acid in the
stomach to treat gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). Meanwhile, Cipla
is expected to supply the drug to Teva, which will benefit the company and
fully reflect in FY2016. Thus we enhance our FY2016 sales and EPS
numbers by 5.9% and 10.4%. Thus at CMP the stock trades at
23.5xFY2016E, which is fair and hence we retain our neutral rating on our
stock.
Ranbaxy Labs- Update
Last year, the company had received notice from the USFDA rescinding
tentative approval for its generic version of Nexium. Now, the company
received a communication, from USFDA that they have determined that
company has forfeited its 180- day exclusivity for the product. Ranbaxy
decided to take further legal recourse for the same.
On, the other hand, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) said it
approved Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd's generic version of AstraZeneca
Plc's blockbuster heartburn drug Nexium, the agency's first such approval for
the drug. The approval comes as generic drugmakers scramble to get their
versions to the market and AstraZeneca is taken to court over so-called
"pay-for-delay" settlements to delay the launch of generics to protect its drug's
exclusivity. Nexium is about ~US$4.0bn in global sales. Nexium, known
chemically as esomeprazole, is a proton pump inhibitor used to reduce acid in
the stomach to treat gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). While the
development is negative for the company, but since, we have not factored the
same in our projections; we retain our neutral rating on the stock.
Result Preview
Ranbaxy Labs (CMP: Rs707/ TP: /Upside :)
For 3QFY2015, the company is expected to post a robust set of numbers,
mainly driven by the Diovan launch. The revenues are expected to come in
at Rs3,570cr, posting a yoy growth of 29.8%. On the operating front, the
EBIDTA is expected to come in at 23.8% V/s 6.6% in 3QFY2014.
Consequently, Adj. PAT is expected to come in at Rs499cr V/s Rs61cr, in
3QFY2014. We maintain our neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS ROE
March
(Rs cr) (%)
(Rs cr)
(Rs) (%)
P/E P/BV
(x)
(x)
EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
FY2015E
12,024 13.3
773
18.3 21.6 38.7
7.7
24.3
3.2
FY2016E
13,827 10.0
584
13.8 14.0 51.2
6.7
28.1
2.8
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
2
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Economic and Political News
Asia resilient to external shocks: Moody's
Fiscal targets likely to be met: Jaitley
India turns to corner shops, mobile phones for banking revolution
Corporate News
Mahindra to expand renewables business amid govt's clean energy push
Tata Motors seeks shareholder nod for right issues
CMC-TCS deal gets no-objection from BSE, NSE
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Adani Power Ltd Consol - January 28, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
3QFY15E
3QFY14
Net sales
5,348
2,500
EBITDA
1,531
550
28.6
22.0
(430)
(426)
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
y-o-y (%)
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
114.0
2,407
122.2
178.4
667
129.6
27.7
0.0
0.0
(431)
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd - January 28, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
Net sales
3QFY15E
1,086
3QFY14
y-o-y (%)
802
35.4
736
589
25.0
67.8
73.5
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
524
477
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
850
27.8
764
(3.6)
89.9
9.7
529
(1.1)
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
3,218
(0.1)
807
(18.0)
Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd Consol - January 28, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
Net sales
3QFY15E
4QCY13
y-o-y (%)
3,214
2,859
12.4
EBITDA
662
260
154.3
EBITDA margin (%)
20.6
9.1
Net profit
393
25.1
0.0
478
(17.7)
y-o-y (%)
(159)
Ashok Leyland Ltd - January 29, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
3QFY15E
3,225
237
EBITDA margin (%)
7.3
Net profit
41
3QFY14
1,903
(97)
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
69.4
3,150
2.4
0.0
234
1.0
-5.1
7.4
0.0
12
251.7
y-o-y (%)
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
3,587
11.0
536
25.3
(167)
Asian Paints Ltd Consol - January 29, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
Net sales
3QFY15E
3,980
3QFY14
3,413
16.6
672
537
25.0
16.9
15.7
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
430
329
15.0
30.4
347
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
3
23.7
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd Consol - January 29, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
Net sales
3QFY15E
3QFY14
y-o-y (%)
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
3,632
3,534
2.8
3,588
1.2
EBITDA
836
994
(15.9)
842
(0.7)
EBITDA margin (%)
23.0
28.1
Net profit
553
618
23.5
(10.5)
574
(3.6)
Housing Development Finance Corp - January 29, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
Net profit
3QFY15E
1,423
3QFY14
1,278
y-o-y (%)
11.4
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
1,358
4.8
HDFC Bank Ltd - January 29, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
Net profit
3QFY15E
2,795
3QFY14
2,326
y-o-y (%)
20.2
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
2,381
17.3
IDFC Ltd Consol - January 29, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
Net profit
3QFY15E
421
3QFY14
501
y-o-y (%)
(15.9)
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
421
(0.1)
Sesa Sterlite Ltd Consol - January 29, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
3QFY15E
3QFY14
Net sales
19,192
19,414
(1.1)
19,448
(1.3)
EBITDA
5,927
6,490
(8.7)
6,327
(6.3)
(24.5)
1,619
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
30.9
33.4
1,410
1,868
y-o-y (%)
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
32.5
(12.9)
Adani Enterprises Ltd Consol - January 30, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
3QFY15E
3QFY14
Net sales
16,471
13,644
y-o-y (%)
20.7
2QFY15
14,028
q-o-q (%)
17.4
EBITDA
2,880
2,062
39.7
2,985
(3.5)
EBITDA margin (%)
17.5
15.1
Net profit
240
68
21.3
251.9
210
14.1
Bank of Baroda - January 30, 2015
Particulars (Rs cr)
Net profit
3QFY15E
1,253
3QFY14
1,048
y-o-y (%)
19.6
2QFY15
q-o-q (%)
1,104
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
4
13.5
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Result Calendar
Date
Company
January 28, 2015
Areva, Jyothy Laboratories, Ranbaxy, Adani Power
Ashok Leyland, HDFC Bank, HDFC, IDFC, Oriental Bank, Asian Paints, Jagran Prakashan, Sesa Goa, Hitachi, Dr
Reddy's
Tata Global, Siemens, Thermax, ICICI Bank, Bank of Baroda, Andhra Bank, Vijaya Bank, Dabur India, HCL Tech, Tech
Mahindra, Sun TV Network, PVR, JSW Steel , Heritage Foods, L G Balakrishnan & Bros, Indoco Remedies, NTPC
Exide Industries, Relaxo, Divi's Lab.
January 29, 2015
January 30, 2015
January 31, 2015
February 2, 2015
February 3, 2015
February 4, 2015
Bharat Forge, Subros, LMW, Indian Bank
Hero Motocorp, TVS Motor, Crompton Greaves, ACC, Punjab Natl.Bank, GlaxoSmith Con, Marico, Britannia, Jindal
Steel, Lupin, NHPC
KEC International, J K Lakshmi Cements, Canara Bank, Central Bank, Tide Water Oil India, Aurobindo Pharma,
Alembic Pharma, Tata Power Co.
Automotive Axle, CEAT, Ramco Cements, Allahabad Bank, IOB, Godrej Consumer, PTC India
February 5, 2015
February 6, 2015
Tata Chemicals, Apollo Tyres, NMDC, Tata Steel
February 7, 2015
Ipca labs, GIPCL
February 9, 2015
Styrolution, Sterling Tools
February 10, 2015
Motherson Sumi, ABB, Cadila Healthcare
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
January 29, 2015
US
Initial Jobless claims
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
US
FOMC rate decision
Thousands
Jan 24
307.00
300.00
Value
Jan F
(8.50)
(8.50)
Thousands
Jan
(27.00)
(10.00)
%
Jan 28
0.25
0.25
January 30, 2015
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q A
5.00
3.00
February 1, 2015
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jan
50.10
50.20
February 2, 2015
2:25PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jan F
51.00
--
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jan
52.50
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Feb 3
6.75
6.75
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
%
Feb 3
7.75
7.75
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Feb 3
4.00
4.00
February 4, 2015
2:25PM
Germany PMI Services
February 5, 2015
5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
February 6, 2015
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
China
February 3, 2015
February 8, 2015
February 9, 2015
5:30PM
February 10, 2015
Value
Jan F
52.70
--
% Ratio
Feb 5
0.50
0.50
Thousands
Jan
252.00
233.00
%
Jan
5.60
5.60
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jan
9.70
--
India
Qtrly GDP YoY%
% Change
4Q
5.30
--
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Jan
(4.78)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jan
(3.77)
--
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jan
1.50
--
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Dec
1.10
--
February 12, 2015
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Dec
3.80
--
February 13, 2015
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
4Q A
0.20
--
12:30PM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
4Q P
1.20
--
February 16, 2015
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jan
0.11
--
February 17, 2015
3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jan
0.50
--
February 18, 2015
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Jan
(29.70)
--
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Jan
1,032.00
--
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jan
1,089.00
--
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Jan
(0.11)
--
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
5
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
8.0
5.6
6.0
3.7
7.6
4.3
3.8
2.8
4.0
7.0
2.0
6.5
5.8
5.7
4.5
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.8
4.6
5.3
1.1
0.9
0.1
4.6
(0.5)
(2.0)
(4.0)
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
0.5
-
(2.0)
(4.2)
(6.0)
Dec-13Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14 Nov-14
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
7.0
6.0
6.0
6.2
5.6
5.7
5.0
Services PMI
5.4
52.0
5.0
3.9
4.0
50.0
2.4
3.0
48.0
1.7
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
(%)
30.0
Mfg. PMI
54.0
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
46.0
44.0
Dec-13
Jun-14
Jun-14
Dec-14
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Apr-14
Aug-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Nov-14
Feb-14
Feb-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
3.00
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14Dec-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Apr-14
May-14
May-14
Jul-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-14
Mar-14
Jun-14
Dec-14
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
6
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
7.3
6.0
5.0
5.6
5.3
4.0
5.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
(0.2)
1.4
0.7
2.6
2.7
1.2
0.6
0.4
(1.3)
(1.0)
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa Indonesia Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(2.0)
Exhibit 2: 2014 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
1.4
2.0
1.0
0.3
0.2
5.6
7.4
India
China
Brazil
Russia
5.2
5.9
SouthAfrica Indonesia Malaysia
1.0
Thailand
3.2
UK
2.2
USA
1.4
Germany
0.4
0.9
France
Japan
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
10.7
5.3
17.2
12.4
Brazil
Russia
India
China
16.4
15.6
SouthAfrica Indonesia
15.9
15.2
15.8
16.9
13.8
15.3
15.0
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
7
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
48,591
(2.2)
(7.4)
(1.5)
Russia
Micex
1,674
13.3
18.7
11.1
India
Nifty
8,911
6.9
11.5
39.8
China
Shanghai Composite
3,353
12.8
46.4
67.2
South Africa
Top 40
44,532
1.4
2.7
4.5
Mexico
Mexbol
42,628
(0.9)
(1.6)
4.6
Indonesia
LQ45
916
3.7
5.6
22.7
Malaysia
KLCI
1,803
3.1
(1.1)
(0.3)
Thailand
SET 50
1,061
3.4
4.8
19.7
USA
Dow Jones
17,387
(1.6)
7.4
11.0
UK
FTSE
6,812
4.2
6.7
4.7
Japan
Nikkei
17,768
0.8
17.6
13.6
Germany
DAX
10,629
10.1
21.5
14.8
France
CAC
4,624
9.9
12.4
12.2
EQLINE RESEARCH
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
8
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
()
Target
Price ( )
Mkt Cap
(
cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY15E
OPM(%)
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY16E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
231
-
4,498
2,020
2,365
13.9
13.9
9.0
10.5
25.7
22.0
5.4
4.5
22.6
22.4
2.3
1.9
United Phosphorus
Buy
351
424
15,029
11,850
13,627
17.3
17.3
29.9
35.3
11.7
9.9
2.4
2.0
22.2
21.7
1.4
1.1
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Neutral
66
-
18,811
13,567
17,667
7.6
10.2
0.8
3.3
82.6
20.0
3.5
3.2
4.5
15.8
1.4
1.0
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,418
-
69,956
22,473
26,699
19.6
19.8
111.8
133.6
21.6
18.1
6.4
5.5
27.5
30.5
2.7
2.2
Eicher Motors
Neutral
16,089
-
43,610
11,916
16,150
15.8
17.8
425.3
673.9
37.8
23.9
12.6
9.0
33.0
37.6
3.5
2.6
Hero Motocorp
Buy
2,857
3,462
57,045
28,387
33,935
14.0
15.0
143.7
182.2
19.9
15.7
8.2
7.1
41.2
45.2
1.8
1.5
630
675
989
1,239
1,423
12.9
13.1
47.2
51.9
13.3
12.1
2.7
2.2
19.9
18.4
0.9
0.8
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,322
1,428
82,112
39,758
44,615
12.9
13.1
55.9
65.2
23.7
20.3
4.1
3.6
17.4
17.7
1.8
1.6
Maruti
Neutral
3,685
-
111,323
50,178
62,256
12.8
14.4
124.3
187.5
29.7
19.7
4.7
4.1
15.9
20.6
2.0
1.6
Tata Motors
Neutral
605
-
163,019 252,586 306,563
15.7
15.0
47.2
51.8
12.8
11.7
2.5
2.1
19.1
17.6
0.8
0.7
TVS Motor
Neutral
308
-
14,640
10,521
12,856
6.3
7.9
8.5
15.0
36.3
20.5
8.6
6.5
23.7
31.5
1.3
1.1
Amara Raja Batteries Neutral
891
-
15,219
4,308
5,251
17.6
17.4
26.4
31.7
33.8
28.1
8.8
7.0
26.0
24.8
3.4
2.8
Exide Industries
Neutral
199
-
16,890
7,289
8,383
13.5
14.0
7.1
8.5
28.0
23.4
4.1
3.7
14.7
15.8
2.0
1.7
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
231
263
11,736
14,514
16,334
14.5
14.8
20.4
23.9
11.3
9.7
2.1
1.7
18.7
18.1
0.9
0.8
Ceat
Buy
812
989
3,284
6,202
7,386
12.1
12.2
76.3
89.9
10.6
9.0
2.2
1.8
23.7
22.3
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Buy
122
165
2,512
7,616
8,372
13.0
13.6
16.5
19.4
7.4
6.3
1.9
1.5
26.2
23.9
0.6
0.6
Sterling Tools
Buy
320
397
219
342
394
47.5
54.8
27.4
33.1
11.7
9.7
1.9
1.6
16.2
16.7
0.8
0.7
Swaraj Engines
Accumulate
960
1,056
1,192
665
759
15.1
15.0
61.9
70.4
15.5
13.6
4.6
3.7
29.4
27.3
1.5
1.3
Subros
Accumulate
71
80
425
1,255
1,416
11.2
11.3
3.2
4.4
22.1
16.1
1.4
1.3
6.2
8.1
0.7
0.6
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Accumulate
Capital Goods
BGR Energy
Neutral
159
-
1,148
3,938
4,362
11.6
11.8
23.9
27.1
6.7
5.9
0.8
0.7
19.9
17.6
1.0
0.9
BHEL
Neutral
282
-
69,035
36,844
36,607
10.8
10.8
11.8
11.4
23.9
24.7
2.3
2.1
10.2
9.0
1.7
1.7
Blue Star
Accumulate
331
377
2,977
3,202
3,619
4.3
4.6
8.7
9.4
38.3
35.2
5.6
5.0
15.4
14.9
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Buy
193
235
12,068
14,899
16,720
6.6
7.2
7.9
10.0
24.4
19.3
3.0
2.7
12.9
14.8
0.9
0.8
KEC International
Buy
89
109
2,295
8,657
9,879
7.2
7.5
7.1
9.9
12.6
9.0
1.7
1.5
22.9
24.7
0.5
0.4
Thermax
Neutral
1,139
-
13,573
6,091
6,988
9.4
9.7
29.5
35.6
38.6
32.0
5.8
5.1
16.0
17.0
2.2
1.9
ACC
Accumulate
1,530
1,630
28,733
12,249
13,960
14.9
15.6
56.1
69.1
27.3
22.2
3.4
3.2
13.0
14.9
2.1
1.9
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
250
-
38,736
10,116
11,296
21.8
22.9
8.5
10.2
29.5
24.6
3.8
3.5
13.3
14.9
3.3
2.9
India Cements
Buy
110
146
3,376
5,086
5,869
10.5
11.3
3.2
6.1
33.9
18.0
1.4
1.3
3.5
7.4
1.2
1.0
406
437
4,774
2,475
3,312
17.7
20.6
9.8
21.8
41.4
18.6
3.4
3.0
8.6
17.3
2.4
1.8
Cement
J K Lakshmi Cement Accumulate
EQLINE RESEARCH
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
9
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
()
Target
Price ( )
Mkt Cap
(
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
cr )
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY16E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY16E
Cement
Mangalam Cements Buy
324
389
865
1,001
1,189
13.4
15.0
16.7
29.9
19.4
10.8
1.6
1.5
8.5
14.1
1.2
0.9
Orient Cement
Neutral
186
-
3,805
1,622
2,185
19.3
22.0
8.0
7.8
23.4
23.8
4.0
3.6
18.4
16.0
3.1
2.3
Ramco Cements
Neutral
344
-
8,182
4,251
5,018
17.4
19.5
9.6
16.4
35.7
21.0
3.0
2.7
8.8
13.6
2.5
2.1
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,883
-
37,912
6,558
8,056
24.4
25.3
272.3
360.5
40.0
30.2
7.2
6.0
19.4
21.5
5.4
4.3
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
3,120
-
85,622
24,053
28,387
20.7
23.3
91.0
129.0
34.3
24.2
4.4
3.8
13.6
16.9
3.7
3.1
Financials
Axis Bank
Accumulate
592
675
140,014
22,498
26,155
3.6
3.7
31.3
37.1
18.9
16.0
3.2
2.8
17.9
18.4
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Buy
223
261
47,815
18,371
20,677
2.0
2.1
119.6
136.5
1.9
1.6
0.3
0.2
13.5
13.8
-
-
Bank of India
Buy
291
373
18,712
16,297
18,384
2.1
2.1
50.7
60.9
5.8
4.8
0.8
0.7
11.9
12.9
-
-
Canara Bank
Buy
469
548
21,635
14,057
15,709
2.0
2.0
59.9
71.0
7.8
6.6
0.9
0.8
11.0
11.9
-
-
Dena Bank
Buy
58
77
3,141
3,775
4,298
2.2
2.3
7.4
9.1
7.9
6.4
0.6
0.6
6.2
7.3
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
145
-
12,412
3,182
3,506
3.2
3.2
11.7
12.2
12.4
11.9
1.6
1.5
13.6
12.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,316
-
206,827
9,842
11,678
3.6
3.6
40.5
48.2
32.5
27.3
6.6
6.0
28.1
28.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Neutral
1,074
-
259,630
30,897
37,011
4.4
4.4
42.5
52.1
25.3
20.6
5.0
4.2
21.5
22.3
-
-
ICICI Bank
Accumulate
384
429
222,245
30,623
36,128
3.2
3.2
19.7
23.5
19.5
16.3
2.9
2.6
15.2
16.0
-
-
IDBI Bank
Accumulate
75
81
12,094
9,378
10,281
1.9
1.9
6.2
7.0
12.2
10.7
0.6
0.5
4.5
4.9
-
-
Indian Bank
Buy
210
255
9,764
6,094
6,679
2.5
2.5
23.3
27.3
9.0
7.7
0.7
0.7
7.6
8.4
-
-
LIC Housing Finance Accumulate
497
541
25,077
2,504
2,969
2.3
2.3
29.0
33.9
17.1
14.7
3.0
2.6
18.1
18.2
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
205
267
37,076
22,911
25,755
3.0
3.0
22.6
30.4
9.1
6.7
1.1
1.0
11.3
13.8
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Accumulate
28
31
3,774
1,849
1,984
2.4
2.4
2.9
3.5
9.6
8.0
1.1
1.0
11.4
12.6
-
-
St Bk of India
Accumulate
330
355
246,220
75,211
86,339
3.0
3.0
17.9
24.0
18.4
13.8
2.1
1.8
11.3
13.8
-
-
Union Bank
Accumulate
238
265
15,144
11,766
13,312
2.4
2.4
29.3
34.6
8.1
6.9
1.1
1.0
10.5
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Buy
49
58
4,223
2,953
3,269
1.5
1.5
5.5
6.6
8.9
7.5
0.9
0.8
8.1
9.1
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
882
1,015
36,821
5,534
6,899
3.1
3.2
48.8
60.7
18.1
14.5
3.1
2.7
21.5
19.7
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
890
-
85,383
14,498
16,653
16.0
16.0
15.6
17.7
57.1
50.4
16.6
13.4
32.4
29.4
5.8
5.0
Britannia
Neutral
1,913
-
22,947
7,056
8,065
9.7
9.6
40.4
47.2
47.4
40.5
18.3
13.5
45.1
38.3
3.1
2.7
Colgate
Neutral
1,927
-
26,203
4,165
4,836
17.7
18.4
43.5
50.5
44.3
38.1
38.2
29.1
94.1
86.7
6.1
5.2
Dabur India
Neutral
249
-
43,676
8,135
9,370
17.1
17.1
6.4
7.3
39.1
33.9
12.9
10.2
36.9
33.7
5.3
4.5
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
5,701
-
23,978
4,259
4,919
15.7
15.9
143.2
168.3
39.8
33.9
11.9
9.6
33.1
31.4
5.2
4.4
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,074
-
36,553
8,777
10,168
15.4
15.6
26.1
31.1
41.2
34.5
8.1
6.8
19.7
19.7
4.3
3.7
EQLINE RESEARCH
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
10
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
()
Target
Price ( )
Mkt Cap
(
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
cr )
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY16E
FMCG
HUL
Neutral
942
-
203,690
31,055
34,940
13.7
14.2
18.3
20.1
51.4
46.8
43.1
31.0
99.0
77.0
6.4
5.6
ITC
Accumulate
360
409
287,636
38,185
44,068
37.7
37.8
12.7
14.6
28.3
24.6
9.3
7.9
32.7
32.1
7.2
6.2
Marico
Neutral
353
-
22,784
5,406
6,351
15.7
15.7
8.6
10.4
41.1
34.0
12.6
9.9
30.7
29.0
4.2
3.5
Nestle*
Neutral
7,344
-
70,806
10,356
11,691
22.0
22.2
138.0
160.9
53.2
45.6
22.4
17.0
48.0
55.0
6.7
5.9
Tata Global
Buy
159
186
9,857
8,615
9,562
9.5
9.5
8.1
8.9
19.8
18.0
2.4
2.3
9.1
9.4
1.1
1.0
HCL Tech^
Buy
1,621
1,968
113,841
36,528
41,535
23.2
24.0
96.8
109.3
16.7
14.8
4.3
3.5
24.3
23.9
2.8
2.3
Infosys
Accumulate
2,136
2,449
245,314
53,943
59,985
28.0
28.0
110.2
119.8
19.4
17.8
4.4
3.7
22.5
21.0
3.9
3.4
TCS
Accumulate
2,503
2,833
490,230
95,106 108,420
29.6
29.2
110.2
123.9
22.7
20.2
8.2
7.2
35.9
35.7
4.9
4.3
Tech Mahindra
Neutral
2,818
-
67,627
21,656
27,724
22.4
20.0
137.3
158.5
20.5
17.8
5.5
4.3
26.4
23.7
2.7
2.0
Wipro
Buy
598
711
147,597
50,000
56,000
23.1
23.7
35.6
39.5
16.8
15.1
3.6
3.0
21.2
19.8
2.5
2.1
D B Corp
Neutral
395
-
7,251
2,007
2,241
26.9
26.8
17.7
19.8
22.4
20.0
5.5
4.7
24.4
23.7
3.6
3.2
HT Media
Neutral
129
-
3,013
2,301
2,495
12.4
12.4
7.5
8.0
17.3
16.1
1.6
1.4
9.0
8.7
0.8
0.7
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
135
154
4,405
1,824
1,981
22.9
24.2
7.7
9.1
17.5
14.9
3.2
2.8
19.0
20.2
2.4
2.2
Sun TV Network
Hindustan Media
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Neutral
402
-
15,838
2,548
2,879
68.6
68.9
22.8
25.8
17.6
15.6
4.6
3.9
27.1
26.7
5.8
5.0
Buy
237
292
1,739
820
920
20.0
20.0
17.8
19.2
13.3
12.3
2.4
2.0
17.9
16.4
1.6
1.4
Coal India
Neutral
383
-
241,917
73,842
81,735
11.8
12.9
27.1
31.2
14.1
12.3
4.8
3.9
33.9
32.1
2.4
1.9
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
170
-
71,704
13,881
15,410
47.0
48.9
17.0
19.0
10.0
8.9
1.7
1.5
16.9
16.4
3.0
2.5
Hindalco
Neutral
142
-
29,416
97,816 104,037
11.2
11.4
17.9
19.5
8.0
7.3
0.7
0.6
8.6
8.6
0.8
0.7
JSW Steel
Buy
1,016
1,346
24,564
57,358
60,796
18.8
19.3
117.0
123.0
8.7
8.3
1.0
0.9
12.2
11.4
1.1
1.0
NMDC
Neutral
141
-
55,883
14,551
16,453
67.4
67.7
19.2
21.1
7.3
6.7
1.6
1.4
21.9
20.8
2.4
2.4
SAIL
Neutral
79
-
32,586
52,835
56,944
13.3
14.4
7.9
9.8
10.0
8.1
0.7
0.7
7.4
8.8
1.1
1.0
Sesa Sterlite
Neutral
207
-
61,458
86,780
89,360
32.2
30.4
19.3
21.2
10.7
9.8
0.7
0.7
7.9
6.5
0.9
0.8
Tata Steel
Buy
398
539
38,659 147,705 155,401
13.3
14.2
49.0
60.7
8.1
6.6
1.1
1.0
12.4
13.5
0.7
0.7
Cairn India
Neutral
239
-
44,809
17,818
19,412
69.4
68.2
44.3
51.7
5.4
4.6
0.7
0.6
13.0
13.2
1.2
1.0
GAIL
Neutral
419
-
53,175
59,990
66,199
11.9
12.8
34.2
42.8
12.3
9.8
1.8
1.6
15.3
15.9
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
350
-
31.2
35.4
30.4
44.7
11.5
7.8
1.7
1.5
14.2
17.8
1.6
1.3
Petronet LNG
Neutral
191
-
4.2
4.9
10.5
13.7
18.2
13.9
2.6
2.3
14.2
15.7
0.4
0.4
Reliance Industries
Buy
889
1,034
9.3
12.8
89.9
112.8
9.9
7.9
1.1
1.0
11.4
12.8
0.7
0.7
Neutral
481
-
19.4
19.3
15.7
18.4
30.7
26.2
9.9
7.5
37.2
32.6
4.2
3.6
IT
Media
Oil & Gas
299,143 177,311 201,041
14,291
40,481
42,913
287,543 378,320 368,790
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
9,074
2,188
2,542
EQLINE RESEARCH
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
11
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
()
Target
Price ( )
Mkt Cap
(
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
cr )
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
EPS ( )
FY15E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY16E
Pharmaceuticals
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
1,176
-
34,304
11,707
14,054
19.9
19.9
48.0
56.3
24.5
20.9
6.8
5.2
31.8
28.2
3.4
2.8
Aventis*
Accumulate
3,424
3,700
7,885
1,912
2,226
15.5
16.4
104.5
123.1
32.8
27.8
4.7
3.8
17.6
20.7
3.8
3.1
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
1,652
-
33,829
8,505
10,176
16.7
17.2
49.8
61.9
33.2
26.7
8.0
6.4
26.5
26.5
4.2
3.4
Cipla
Neutral
706
-
56,682
11,509
14,383
18.8
21.7
20.9
29.6
33.8
23.9
4.9
4.1
15.6
18.8
4.9
3.9
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,211
3,935
54,680
15,867
18,657
23.8
24.9
155.2
196.7
20.7
16.3
4.8
3.8
25.8
26.0
3.4
2.9
Dishman Pharma
Buy
138
193
1,114
1,511
1,662
23.0
23.0
16.7
21.7
8.3
6.4
0.9
0.8
10.8
12.7
1.1
0.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,448
-
29,205
2,640
2,853
19.7
20.5
54.5
59.4
63.3
58.1
14.9
14.9
23.4
25.7
10.4
9.6
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
318
-
2,933
856
1,112
18.2
18.2
10.4
14.2
30.6
22.4
5.4
4.5
19.2
21.8
3.6
2.8
Ipca labs
Buy
637
817
8,039
3,503
4,213
18.6
20.9
36.2
48.1
17.6
13.3
3.4
2.8
21.2
23.3
2.5
2.1
Lupin
Neutral
1,523
-
68,435
13,921
16,021
26.9
26.9
53.0
60.8
28.7
25.1
7.5
5.8
27.8
26.1
4.9
4.2
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
707
-
30,045
12,024
13,827
13.2
10.0
18.3
13.9
38.6
50.9
7.7
6.7
21.6
14.0
3.2
2.8
Sun Pharma
Neutral
914
-
189,268
18,929
38,386
44.0
31.5
31.2
34.9
29.3
26.2
7.8
5.3
28.5
27.9
9.4
5.4
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
89
-
24,071
37,654
38,320
25.0
25.2
5.9
6.5
15.1
13.7
1.7
1.6
11.0
11.6
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Accumulate
143
161
118,075
74,675
80,198
24.9
26.1
10.9
12.7
13.1
11.3
1.3
1.2
9.7
10.6
2.2
2.0
Bharti Airtel
Accumulate
393
429
157,258
95,793 103,292
33.6
34.2
12.8
16.4
30.7
24.0
2.4
2.2
8.2
9.3
2.2
2.0
Idea Cellular
Accumulate
170
192
61,283
30,636
34,560
32.0
32.4
7.5
8.6
22.7
19.8
2.9
2.5
13.9
13.8
2.6
2.2
Telecom
zOthers
Abbott India*
Neutral
4,036
-
8,576
2,365
2,781
14.8
15.2
117.7
142.7
34.3
28.3
8.6
6.8
28.0
27.0
3.4
2.8
Bajaj Electricals
Neutral
238
-
2,401
4,677
5,458
6.2
6.4
14.4
19.0
16.6
12.5
2.9
2.4
17.4
19.4
0.5
0.4
Cravatex
Accumulate
404
442
104
207
239
6.6
6.6
20.2
27.8
20.0
14.5
2.3
2.1
11.7
14.2
0.8
0.7
Finolex Cables
Neutral
259
-
3,966
2,527
2,815
11.1
11.4
14.4
16.8
18.0
15.5
3.1
2.6
17.1
17.0
1.4
1.2
Goodyear India*
Buy
622
830
1,435
1,785
1,943
10.5
10.7
53.1
59.3
11.7
10.5
2.4
2.0
22.1
20.7
0.5
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,144
-
3,112
1,345
1,550
8.0
8.9
20.1
25.7
57.0
44.5
10.7
8.7
20.6
21.6
2.4
2.0
Jyothy Laboratories Neutral
289
-
5,236
1,554
1,891
13.3
13.5
8.9
9.4
32.6
30.7
5.5
4.7
17.6
16.5
3.5
2.8
MRF
Neutral
39,946
-
16,942
14,450
15,981
16.1
16.3
2,760.4 3,190.2
14.5
12.5
3.0
2.4
23.0
21.4
1.2
1.0
Page Industries
Neutral
11,843
-
13,209
1,442
1,773
20.6
21.0
174.4
219.9
67.9
53.9
32.6
23.1
56.0
50.2
9.3
7.5
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
690
-
4,141
1,462
1,756
12.0
12.3
14.8
19.8
46.5
34.9
11.5
8.7
24.7
25.0
2.9
2.4
Siyaram Silk Mills
Neutral
991
-
929
1,505
1,810
10.7
11.4
74.2
118.8
13.3
8.3
2.2
1.8
17.4
23.3
0.8
0.6
Styrolution ABS India*Neutral
710
-
1,248
1,172
1,288
7.0
7.0
29.7
33.3
23.9
21.3
2.4
2.2
10.5
10.7
1.1
1.0
Tree House
464
-
1,965
206
246
54.7
54.7
15.9
19.2
29.2
24.2
4.1
3.6
14.1
15.1
9.2
7.6
Neutral
EQLINE RESEARCH
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
12
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
28 January 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
()
Target
Price ( )
Mkt Cap
(
Sales ( cr )
cr )
FY15E
FY16E
OPM(%)
FY15E
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY16E
zOthers
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
1,671
-
1,280
1,923
2,167
9.3
9.4
114.0
137.1
14.7
12.2
4.6
3.5
31.5
28.7
0.8
0.7
Vesuvius India*
Neutral
707
-
1,435
688
758
17.8
18.0
35.4
39.8
20.0
17.8
3.1
2.7
16.8
16.4
1.9
1.6
HSIL
Buy
Kirloskar Engines India
Ltd
Buy
M M Forgings
Neutral
403
568
2,661
2,035
2,349
19.5
20.8
21.2
30.4
19.0
13.3
2.2
1.9
11.3
14.3
1.6
1.4
269
319
3,887
2,549
2,890
10.7
11.6
12.2
15.8
22.1
17.0
2.9
2.6
13.4
16.0
1.3
1.1
579
-
699
493
581
22.5
22.9
44.2
55.0
13.1
10.5
2.9
2.3
24.2
24.0
1.7
1.4
ITD Cementation India Neutral
507
-
787
1,386
1,636
11.1
11.3
9.4
28.2
54.2
18.0
1.4
1.3
2.6
7.3
1.0
0.9
Banco Products (India) Buy
148
182
1,057
1,313
1,536
13.3
13.7
14.3
18.2
10.3
8.1
1.7
1.4
16.8
19.0
0.8
0.7
92
115
57
872
977
2.6
3.0
16.6
23.1
5.6
4.0
0.6
0.6
11.3
13.7
0.1
0.1
123
174
195
968
1,177
8.4
8.7
10.5
24.8
11.8
5.0
0.6
0.5
4.8
10.5
0.4
0.3
Competent Automobiles Buy
Visaka Industries
Buy
EQLINE RESEARCH
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
13
EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd
Market Outlook
Research Team Con No: 9444119602
28 January 2015
E-mail: [email protected]
Website:www.eqinfotech.com
Disclaimer
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EQLINE RESEARCH
212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602
14