1. Healthcare

KBCAM Morning Espresso
Friday, 06 February 2015
European markets cautious over Greece developments
European markets ended mixed Thursday on reports the ECB stopped accepting Greek bonds as collateral for loans to commercial
banks, instead making it now a responsibility of the country’s central bank. Greek banks tumbled after the announcement, with
Piraeus Bank, National Bank of Greece and Eurobank Ergasias falling 9,7%–14,97%. Meanwhile, UK’s BOE maintained its interest rate
at 0,5% as expected. BNP Paribas fell 3,69% as it expected new rules and higher taxes to dent 2015 earnings. Oil stocks gained, with
Tullow Oil up 5,61%. Rexam PLC rose 20,2% on reports of possible acquisition by Ball Corp.
US bourses rebounded Thursday on oil price recovery and deal news. In economic news, initial jobless claims rose by 11.000 to
278.000 (estimate of 290.000) for the week ended January 31. Energy stocks Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Schlumberger, ConocoPhillips,
Denbury Resources, Noble Corp and Ensco rose 0,89%–8,55%. Hospira surged 35,25% as Pfizer (+2,87%) agreed to buy it for USD17
billion. Ball Corp rose 8,89% as it is in talks with Rexam PLC to acquire the company for USD6,6 billion. Keurig Green Mountain fell
4,87% after lowering its 2015 profit outlook.
Asian markets traded mixed Friday. Nikkei rose 0,82% on higher crude prices. Shanghai and Hang Seng fell 1,94% and 0,21%,
respectively, on expectations of forthcoming IPOs causing a decline in liquidity.
Global Index Snapshot
Index
Last Close
US
S&P 500
DJIA
NASDAQ 100
Europe
DJ STOXX Europe 600
FTSE 100
DAX 30
CAC 40
AEX
BEL 20
Asia (at 7:30 CET) + BRIC
Nikkei 225
Shanghai (China)
Hang Seng (HK)
MSCI BRIC
MSCI World – Sector Level Performance
1D
5Yr
P/E
Div. Yield
(%)
2.063
17.885
4.256
1,0
1,2
0,8
1,9
2,3
2,5
17,7
15,8
23,2
93,4
78,6
143,8
18x
16x
22x
1,95
2,18
1,26
373
6.866
10.905
4.703
455
3.557
0,1
0,1
-0,1
0,1
0,1
-0,2
10,7
5,0
17,1
11,8
10,9
12,6
17,1
6,3
19,6
14,2
19,0
24,9
56,9
35,7
100,7
32,0
44,5
48,7
24x
22x
19x
26x
22x
21x
3,48
4,46
2,50
3,01
2,68
3,12
17.649
3.076
24.714
270
0,8
-1,9
-0,2
0,5
-0,2
27,1
4,3
-2,0
24,7
51,3
16,2
7,7
75,5
4,6
25,7
-8,7
20x
15x
10x
10x
1,45
2,11
3,63
3,16
European Markets(*)
Name
▲
▲
▲
▲
▲
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
% Change
3M
1Yr
Rexam Plc
Nokian Renkaat Oyj
Securitas AB
Hunting Plc
Dassault Systemes
OPAP SA
Hellenic Telecom Org
Eurobank Ergasias
Nation’l Bk of Greece
Piraeus Bank SA
North American Markets(*)
% Change
+20,20
+11,33
+8,51
+8,07
+7,98
-5,28
-6,32
-9,70
-12,31
-14,97
Name
▲
▲
▲
▲
▲
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
Hospira Inc
Ball Corp
Denbury Resources
Estee Lauder Co
O'Reilly Automotive
Costco Wholesale
Keurig Green Mount
Twenty-First Century
Prudential Financial
Teradata Corp
Index
Energy
Materials
Industrials
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Financials
Banks
Diversified
Insurance
Real Estate
IT
Telecom
Utilities
MSCI World
238,2
215,8
198,3
182,9
200,5
201,4
99,4
85,6
109,8
97,4
193,9
136,4
72,4
125,1
1.300,7
Asia Pacific Markets(*)
% Change
+35,25
+8,89
+8,55
+8,06
+8,06
-1,21
-4,87
-5,37
-5,72
-10,20
Last Close
Name
▲
▲
▲
▲
▲
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
Sony Corp
Yahoo Japan Corp
Sumitomo Mitsui Tr
Newcrest Mining
Fujitsu Ltd
Santos Ltd
Tokyo Gas Co
Inpex Corp
Toray Industries
Hitachi Ltd
1D
1,3
1,0
0,6
0,4
0,0
0,9
0,6
0,6
0,9
-0,1
0,9
0,7
0,0
0,1
0,6
5Yr
20,9
18,8
76,4
123,8
77,5
109,9
44,7
27,3
47,2
66,0
76,7
87,4
51,8
23,3
64,8
Emerging Markets(*)
% Change
+12,01
+5,12
+4,03
+3,67
+3,00
-3,23
-3,75
-3,99
-4,57
-9,88
% Change
3M
1Yr
-4,8
-1,9
7,4
9,5
3,8
13,3
9,7
18,3
5,8
21,6
4,9
25,6
1,0
11,9
-2,1
6,1
-0,3
10,9
3,9
16,3
8,6
26,9
2,7
22,2
4,7
15,3
3,2
21,9
3,6
15,6
Name
▲
▲
▲
▲
▲
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
Novatek OAO
Mobile Telesystem
Gazprom
China Unicom
Souza Cruz On
ONGC Ltd
Enka Insaat Ve
Standard Bank
Sasol Ltd
LG Chem
% Change
+6,63
+6,32
+3,51
+3,37
+3,10
-3,23
-3,25
-3,28
-3,94
-5,39
Recommendation Changes
Rating
Current price
Price Target
Date of Change
Analyst
Old
New
Daimler AG
Buy
Accumulate
82,8 EUR
90,0 EUR
05-Feb
Kurt Ruts
Daimler had a superb 2014. And we believe they can repeat this in 2015. But so does consensus. We remain positive but given the fact that there is insufficient upside to our
price target for a buy rating, we move to ‘accumulate’.
Kingfisher Plc
Buy
Add
333,8 GBp
370,0 GBp
04-Feb
Kris Verheyen
Lower than expected revenue numbers in the UK and France and the delay in planned cost savings have weighed on the shares. Short term we expect further pressure on
profits from currencies (higher sourcing costs, lower international revenues) and a French real estate tax.
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA
Hold
Accumulate
7,1 USD
8,0 USD
29-Jan
David Duchi
State oil company Petrobras has been facing many problems over the last years but in recent months the involvement in a big corruption case was weighing on the shares.
The investigation is still ongoing and the lack of clarity of the impact on the results creates uncertainty. Petrobras’s high debt loads is problematic but the first steps taken to
improve the situation are encouraging.
Inditex SA
Accumulate
Hold
26,4 EUR
26,5 EUR
29-Jan
Kris Verheyen
Koninklijke Philips NV
Hold
Sell
25,1 EUR
23,0 EUR
27-Jan
Alex Martens
SAP SE
Buy
Accumulate
59,7 EUR
60,0 EUR
Yves Dalemans
Slide 1 21-Jan
RWE AG
Sell
Hold
23,3 EUR
24,0 EUR
16-Jan
Kenneth Bruycker
BHP Billiton Ltd
Add
Buy
1.538,0 GBp
1.600,0 GBp
14-Jan
Steven Vermander
Deutsche Post AG
Hold
Sell
29,2 EUR
24,0 EUR
14-Jan
Alex Martens
258,6 EUR
220,0 EUR
12-Jan
Steven Lermytte
Unibail-Rodamco
Accumulate
Hold
Company
(*) return on last trading day; for five year performance numbers see p. 5
1
KBCAM Morning Espresso
Friday, 06 February 2015
Company News
Pfizer Inc – The company agreed to purchase injectable drugs
manufacturer Hospira Inc for USD15 billion. The move is aimed at
boosting its portfolio of generic injectable drugs and copies of biotech
medicines.
BT Group Plc – The company entered into a GBP12,5 billion (USD19
billion) agreement to acquire British mobile operator EE from owners
Deutsche Telekom and Orange. Both would receive 12% and 4% stakes,
respectively, in BT as consideration.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc – According to Bloomberg, the
company firmed up its plans to sell or shut down corporate banking
business at its Asian unit. The plan may be announced after earnings
release later this month.
BNP Paribas SA – The company’s 2014 net income tanked 90,1% YoY to
EUR507 million compared to EUR5,4 billion, hurt by the costs related to
a settlement with the US authorities. However, revenues grew 5% YoY
to EUR39,2 billion on higher net interest income. EPS of EUR4,60 trailed
estimates by 49 cents.
Symantec Corp – The company’s Q3 FY2015 net income plunged 22%
YoY to USD222 million on higher costs. Net revenues also fell 4% YoY to
USD1,6 billion, hurt by currency effects. However, EPS of USD0,53 beat
estimates by 4 cents.
Boeing Co – The company may fetch orders worth up to USD15,6 billion
until 2020 from the US Air Force for development and production of its
KC-46 aerial re-fuelling tanker.
Daimler AG – The company’s FY2014 net profit grew 1,8% YoY to EUR7
billion on higher revenues that were up 10% YoY at EUR129,9 billion.
Sales of Mercedes Benz cars and vans registered growth of 10% and 9%,
respectively. However, EPS of EUR6,51 trailed estimates by 31 cents.
ABB Ltd – The company’s 2014 net income slid 6,5% YoY USD2,7 billion,
negatively impacted on by stronger dollar. Revenues also fell 4,8% YoY
to USD39,8 billion, mainly due to lower order backlog at the start of the
year. However, EPS of USD1,13 met analysts’ expectations.
Toyota Motor Corp – The company agreed to pay CNY1,2 billion
(USD200 million) to its China dealers to compensate them for higher
costs arising due to inventory pile-up.
Vestas Wind Systems A/S – The company bagged an order to supply 53
2MW turbines at Gestamp Eolica SL’s wind farms in Brazil. The order
also included service facility for 10-years. However, financial details
weren’t disclosed.
Economic Calendar
Date
Country/Region
Nature of Release
Period/Date
Actual
Consensus
Previous
05-Feb
Germany
Factory Orders (MoM)
December
4,20%
1,50%
-2,40%
05-Feb
UK
BoE Interest Rate decision
05-Feb
0,50%
0,50%
0,50%
05-Feb
US
Initial Jobless Claims
31-Jan
278K
290K
267K (R)
05-Feb
US
Continuing Claims
24-Jan
2.400K
2.400K
2.394K (R)
05-Feb
US
Trade Balance
December
-$46,60B
-$38,00B
-$39,80B (R)
06-Feb
Germany
Industrial Production (MoM)
December
-
0,40%
-0,10%
06-Feb
US
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
January
-
230K
252K
06-Feb
US
Unemployment Rate
January
-
5,60%
5,60%
06-Feb
US
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
January
-
0,30%
-0,20%
07-Feb
US
Consumer Credit
December
-
$15,00B
$14,08B
09-Feb
Japan
Trade Balance (BOP Basis)
December
-
-¥470,00B (R)
-¥636,80B
09-Feb
Japan
Consumer Confidence
January
-
39,30
38,80
09-Feb
Eurozone
Sentix Investor Confidence
February
-
-
0,90
09-Feb
Germany
Trade Balance
December
-
-
17,90B
09-Feb
Germany
Exports (MoM)
December
-
-
-1,90%
10-Feb
UK
Industrial Production (MoM)
December
-
0,20%
-0,10%
10-Feb
UK
NIESR GDP Estimate
January
-
-
0,60%
11-Feb
US
MBA Mortgage Applications
06-Feb
-
-
1,30%
12-Feb
Japan
Machine Orders (MoM)
December
-
2,30%
1,30%
12-Feb
Eurozone
Industrial Production (MoM)
December
-
0,30%
0,20%
12-Feb
Germany
Consumer Price Index (YoY) - Final
January
-
-0,30%
-0,30%
12-Feb
UK
RICS House Price Balance
January
-
-
11,00%
12-Feb
US
Monthly Budget Statement
January
-
-$2,60B (R)
-
12-Feb
US
Advance Retail Sales (MoM)
January
-
-0,40% (R)
-0,90%
12-Feb
US
Initial Jobless Claims
07-Feb
-
-
278K
12-Feb
US
Continuing Claims
24-Jan
-
-
2.400K
12-Feb
US
Business Inventories
December
-
0,20%
0,20%
13-Feb
Eurozone
Trade Balance
December
-
-
20,00B
13-Feb
Eurozone
GDP (QoQ) - Actual
Q4
-
13-Feb
Germany
GDP (QoQ) - Actual
Q4
- Slide
2
0,20%
0,20%
0,20%
0,10%
2
KBCAM Morning Espresso
Friday, 06 February 2015
Currencies & Interest Rates
Last Close 1 EUR Equals
1,148
1,427
0,749
1,057
9,466
8,625
1,472
1,553
134,880
7,104
Interest Rate
USD
EUR
GBP
USD
CAD
GBP
CHF
SEK
NOK
AUD
NZD
JPY
CNY
Major Currencies versus the Euro
1D
3M
1,2
0,0
0,2
0,6
0,7
0,0
0,6
0,8
1,4
-0,7
-8,1
0,4
-4,2
-12,2
2,9
1,2
1,3
-3,9
-5,8
-7,1
Money Market (%)*
1-Year
0,63
0,26
0,96
∆ 1D
0,01
0,00
0,01
% Change
1Yr
5Yr
-15,2
-4,8
-9,8
-13,6
7,2
2,3
-3,1
-5,8
-1,8
-13,3
-16,1
-2,6
-14,4
-27,9
-7,0
5,4
-6,6
-21,8
10,5
-23,9
Bond Market (%)
∆ 1Yr 10-Year
0,06
1,82
-0,29
0,37
0,07
1,55
∆ 1D
0,07
0,00
0,01
∆ 1Yr
-0,85
-1,27
-1,14
*money market rates at 1 day lag, except on Monday
Source: Bloomberg
Global Commodities Watch
Major Commodity Prices
% Change
3M
1Yr
Commodity
Last Price
Energy & Metals
Brent Crude (USD/bbl)
Natural Gas (USD/MMBtu)
Gold (USD/t oz.)
Silver (USD/t oz.)
Platinum(USD/t oz.)
Copper (USD/MT)
Aluminium (USD/MT)
Zinc (USD/MT)
Nickel (USD/MT)
Soft Commodities
56,6
2,6
1.264,8
17,3
1.254,2
5.743,5
1.871,0
2.135,8
15.122,8
4,4
-2,3
-0,3
-0,6
1,0
0,2
0,5
0,2
0,4
-31,8
-38,0
10,9
12,6
4,1
-14,4
-9,3
-3,7
-0,9
-46,8
-48,3
0,5
-13,2
-9,2
-18,9
12,9
8,4
10,3
-18,7
-52,9
18,6
13,8
-15,4
-8,2
-4,0
11,0
-10,9
525,8
164,8
14,4
385,3
643,5
2,9
-0,1
-0,3
0,5
4,5
0,2
-11,5
-7,1
4,1
-3,4
-10,5
15,1
-10,5
-13,1
-15,9
11,1
27,9
-44,9
9,6
-12,2
Wheat (USd/bu)
Coffee (USd/lb.)
Sugar (USd/lb)
Corn (USd/bu)
Palm Oil (USD/MT)
1D
5Yr
Source: Bloomberg
Major Indices
Slide 3
Source: Bloomberg
3
KBCAM Morning Espresso
Friday, 06 February 2015
Event Tracker – Earnings
Release
Stock
Date
Nyrstar NV
05-Feb
ABB Ltd
05-Feb
BNP Paribas SA
05-Feb
Munich Re
05-Feb
Sanofi
05-Feb
AstraZeneca Plc
05-Feb
Daimler AG
05-Feb
Teva Pharma Industries Ltd 05-Feb
Symantec Corp
06-Feb
Alcatel-Lucent
06-Feb
Cofinimmo SA
06-Feb
Umicore SA
06-Feb
Fagron
06-Feb
Harmony Gold Mining Co
09-Feb
10-Feb
TUI AG
Coca-Cola Co
10-Feb
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA
10-Feb
UBS AG
10-Feb
METRO AG
10-Feb
Heineken NV
11-Feb
ING Groep NV
11-Feb
Time Warner Inc
11-Feb
PepsiCo Inc
11-Feb
Mondelez International Inc 11-Feb
Euronav NV
11-Feb
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
11-Feb
Cisco Systems Inc
11-Feb
Credit Suisse Group AG
12-Feb
Zurich Insurance Group AG 12-Feb
Akzo Nobel NV
12-Feb
Event Tracker – Dividends
Currency
Period
EUR
USD
EUR
EUR
EUR
USD
EUR
USD
USD
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
USD
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
USD
USD
USD
EUR
EUR
USD
EUR
USD
EUR
FY 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
Q3 2015
FY 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
H1 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
Q1 2015
FY 2014
FY 2014
Q4 2014
Q4 2014
Q4 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
Q2 2015
FY 2014
FY 2014
FY 2014
Actual Estimate
Company
-0,37
1,13
4,60
18,26
5,20
4,28
6,51
5,10
0,53
-
Exxon Mobil Corp
IBM Corp
Schlumberger Ltd
Amgen Inc
Boeing Co
EI du Pont de Nemours & Co
Eli Lilly & Co
TUI AG
BP PLC
Royal Dutch Shell Plc
Ryanair Holdings Plc
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd
Microsoft Corp
GlaxoSmithKline PLC
AstraZeneca PLC
Johnson & Johnson
METRO AG
Symantec Corp
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
QUALCOMM Inc
Novartis AG
PepsiCo Inc
Rio Tinto Plc
Hewlett-Packard Co
BHP Billiton Ltd
Anglo American PLC
Nordea Bank AB
STMicroelectronics NV
Total SA
Unibail-Rodamco SE
-0,32
1,13
5,09
18,54
5,18
4,35
6,82
5,07
0,49
-0,11
6,49
1,68
1,88
-0,05
0,42
0,11
1,12
1,42
3,02
1,00
0,94
1,08
0,43
-0,31
1,56
0,51
1,62
26,24
3,09
Currency
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
EUR
USD
USD
EUR
USD
USD
GBp
USD
USD
EUR
USD
USD
USD
CHF
USD
GBp
USD
GBp
USD
EUR
USD
EUR
EUR
Amount per Ex-Dividend
share
Date
0,69
06-Feb-15
1,10
06-Feb-15
0,50
09-Feb-15
0,79
10-Feb-15
0,91
11-Feb-15
0,47
11-Feb-15
0,50
11-Feb-15
0,33
11-Feb-15
0,11
12-Feb-15
0,47
12-Feb-15
0,38
12-Feb-15
0,34
17-Feb-15
0,31
17-Feb-15
25,56
19-Feb-15
2,11
19-Feb-15
0,70
20-Feb-15
0,90
23-Feb-15
0,15
24-Feb-15
26-Feb-15
0,60
0,42
02-Mar-15
2,60
03-Mar-15
0,66
04-Mar-15
TBA
05-Mar-15
0,16
09-Mar-15
TBA
12-Mar-15
TBA
19-Mar-15
0,62
20-Mar-15
0,10
23-Mar-15
0,61
23-Mar-15
4,80
24-Mar-15
Note: ‘TBA’ stands for ‘To be announced’
Did you know…
... 'human cannon balls' in circus acts aren't really blown out of the cannon with gunpowder? Most circus cannons work with
pressurized air. The human cannon ball climbs into a hollow cylinder fitted inside the barrel which is propelled forward by the
pressurized air. The cylinder stops at the end of the barrel, but the human cannonball does not. The puff of smoke, the flash of
light and the sound of the explosion are produced by special effects. Also, most fatal accidents don't occur during the launch, but
when the acrobat missed the safety net at the end of the flight.
Contact Details
Bart Van Leemput
Head of Equity Research
Analyst
Sector
Alex Martens
Cyclicals
Steven Vermander
Cyclicals
David Duchi
Cyclicals
Kenneth De Bruycker
Utilities
Yves Dalemans
Technology, Media &Telecoms
Kurt Ruts
Technology, Media &Telecoms
For more information, please contact: [email protected]
+32 2 429 00 91
Analyst
Kris Verheyen
Nathalie Bally
Johan Fastenakels
Dirk Sebrechts
Steven Lermytte
Pieter Mahieu
[email protected]
Slide 4
Sector
Consumer
Consumer
Financials
Financials
Financials
Healthcare
4
KBCAM Morning Espresso
Friday, 06 February 2015
5 year return (%) of stocks mentioned on page 1
European Markets
Rexam
Nokian Renkaat
Securitas
Hunting
Dassault Systeme
OPAP
Hellenic Telecom Org
Eurobank Ergasias
National Bank of Greece
Piraeus Bank
Return 5Yr
124,63
89,98
83,99
3,36
207,54
-2,59
-8,03
-99,73
-98,11
-97,51
North American Markets
Hospira
Ball Corp
Denbury Resources
Estee Lauder
O'Reilly Automotive
Costco Wholesale
Keurig Green Mountain
Twenty-First
Prudential Financial
Teradata Corp
Return 5Yr
80,48
197,94
-35,84
198,80
441,30
198,77
323,59
199,16
77,20
52,53
Asia Pacific Markets
Sony Corp
Yahoo Japan Corp
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust
Newcrest Mining
Fujitsu
Santos Ltd
Tokyo Gas Co
Inpex Corp
Toray Industries
Hitachi
Return 5Yr
7,07
40,23
66,76
-52,38
39,68
-26,50
111,96
-11,68
112,71
170,84
Emerging Markets
Novatek OAO
Mobile Telesystem
Gazprom
China Unicom
Souza Cruz On
ONGC Ltd
Enka Insaat Ve
Standard Bank
Sasol Ltd
LG Chem
Return 5Yr
33,23
-31,32
-2,44
64,23
145,91
52,84
59,19
82,99
102,04
9,32
Disclaimer
This document is a publication of KBC Asset Management (KBC AM).
Given that the recommendations in this document are not covered by the term ‘investment research’ as defined in the Royal Decree of 3 June 2007
setting out further rules for transposing the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council, but are
instead marketing communication, the legal requirements for promoting independent investment research do not apply. These recommendations
do not constitute personalised investment advice in itself. KBC AM’s fund managers may deal in the financial instrument prior to issuing these
recommendations. The remuneration of employees of or agents appointed by KBC AM who are involved in drawing up these recommendations is
not linked to investment banking transactions.
Due to a lack of space, a number of essential elements pertaining to these investment recommendations (including the rules on conflicts of
interests) have not been included in this document. To see them, please go to the General guidelines on investment recommendations drawn up by
KBC Asset Management at (This information is only available in Dutch):
http://www.kbcam.be/site/~N/~KBCAM/-BZL3T9B/BZL1W9X/BZL1WKJ/BZKXSRC/BZKYJZA/~-BZL5QRD?ngeOrigin=BZKYK00.
The performance of the given financial instruments and financial indices is past performance and is, therefore, not a reliable indicator of future
performance. If the performance of the given financial instruments and financial indices is denominated in a currency other than the euro, the
return may end up being higher or lower because of currency fluctuations. The data source of all data in connection with the given financial
instrument is Bloomberg.
Nothing in this document may be reproduced without the prior, express, written consent of KBC AM. This information is governed by the laws of
Belgium and is subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of its courts.
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