1. No category

Análisis
21-ene.-2016
Tipo de intervención del BCE
Actual
0,05%
Tipo BCE
Esperado
0,05%
UEM: decisión de tipos del BCE
Impacto en mercados
Anterior
0,05%
Impacto:
Reacción de los mercados a las declaraciones de Draghi
EUR/USD
S&P500
Eurostoxx50
Futuro Bund
Antes
Después
Impacto
1,0900
1.859
2.895
158,35
1,0838
1.865
2.932
161,66
+
+
+
Es uno de los acontecimientos más relevantes,
impactando sobre bolsas, bonos, divisas, etc. Más
importante que el nivel de tipos es el mensaje de
Draghi.
Bolsas:
Euro:
Bonos (precio):
CLAVES DEL MENSAJE
RUEDA DE PRENSA Y OPINIÓN
El BCE revisará y posiblemente reconsiderará su política
monetaria en la próxima reunión de marzo.
Desde nuestro punto de vista, el mensaje del BCE ha sido
constructivo y entendemos que la probabilidad de que
adopte nuevas medidas de política monetaria en la próxima
reunión son elevadas en base a: (i) el BCE considera que las
condiciones económicas y financieras han cambiado
sustancialmente desde el pasado mes de diciembre y se
muestra preocupado por la evolución de los precios del
precio del petróleo, las perspectivas sobre los mercados
emergentes y la evolución del Euro. (ii) Mario Draghi
entiende además que el BCE debe ajustarse a las
circunstancias y utilizar todos los instrumentos disponibles
para cumplir con el mandato del BCE, (iii) la decisión de
revisar la política monetaria en marzo ha sido tomada por
unanimidad, (iv) Draghi ha reconocido que el BCE monitoriza
los acontecimientos que suceden en los mercados
financieros ya que si el aumento reciente en la volatilidad de
los mercados persistiera en el tiempo dificultaría los
objetivos del BCE ya que las condiciones financieras se
endurecerían y (v) se ha manifestado claramente preocupado
por las fuertes caídas del precio del petróleo y los efectos de
segunda ronda que dicha caída puede ocasionar en las
perspectivas de inflación. En este sentido, Draghi ha hecho
especial mención a la debilidad que se observa en los precios
de los principales productos y servicios así como en la
evolución de los salarios. Entendemos por tanto que en la
revisión de las perspectivas macro (marzo) el BCE revisará a
la baja sus previsiones de inflación para 2016 y 2017, factor
que facilitaría la implementación de nuevas medidas de
política monetaria.
En línea con lo esperado, el BCE ha decido mantener la
política monetaria sin cambios pero reconoce que las
condiciones económicas y financieras han cambiado
sustancialmente desde la última reunión (diciembre). El
BCE mantiene el tipo de interés de referencia en 0,05%, el
tipo de depósito que aplica a las entidades financieras en 0,30% y el tipo marginal en 0,30%.
El BCE considera además que los tipos de interés se
mantendrán en un nivel similar al actual o inferior durante
un período prolongado de tiempo.
El BCE entiende que las perspectivas de inflación son
inferiores a lo esperado con anterioridad debido a la fuerte
caída en los precios de la energía pero también a la debilidad
que muestran los salarios y los precios de los bienes y
servicios. En este sentido el BCE entiende que la tasa de
inflación en la UEM se mantendrá en niveles próximos a cero
incluso negativos durante los próximos meses hasta que
logre estabilizarse.
En relación al crecimiento económico, el BCE estima que los
bajos precios del petróleo favorecerán el aumento de la renta
neta de las familias así como la rentabilidad de las empresas
y considera que la capacidad de resistencia de la economía
europea al deterioro de los emergentes es elevada aunque el
crecimiento se ve afectado por la situación internacional.
Tipos UEM, desplazamiento de la curva el último mes.
1,5%
Hoy
Hace un mes
Yields
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
-0,5%
3M
12M
3Y
5Y
7Y
9Y
15Y
-1,0%
Principales tipos de intervención
0,6%
Tipo de intervención de la Fed vs BCE
2%
0,50%
0,5%
30Y
En relación al sistema financiero, el presidente del BCE
considera que la capacidad de resistencia de las entidades
financieras es elevada y que los bancos están más
capitalizados que en la crisis de 2008. Además ha aclarado
que el análisis sobre la calidad crediticia de las entidades se
está realizando con un enfoque granular y teniendo en
cuenta que la gestión de los activos improductivos implica un
período prolongado de tiempo descartando así mayores
exigencias de capital a corto plazo.
Tipo UEM
Tipo EEUU
0,4%
0,3%
0,25%
1%
0,2%
0,10%
0,05%
0,1%
0%
0,0%
EEUU
GB
BCE
JAPON
11
12
13
14
15
15
Descripción.Descripción
Más información sobre el BCE:
http://www.ecb.int/mopo/intro/html/objective.en.html
Web del BCE:
http://www.ecb.int
Análisis Bankinter
Ramón Forcada
Eva del Barrio
Jesús Amador
Ana de Castro
Pilar Aranda
Rafael Alonso
El principal objetivo del BCE y de su comité de política monetaria consiste en
mantener la estabilidad de los precios. "Sin perjudicar el objetivo de la estabilidad de
precios" el sistema Euro también deberá "apoyar las políticas económicas de la
Comunidad con la intención de contribuir a la obtención de sus objetivos". Esto
incluye el mantener un alto nivel de empleo y un crecimiento sostenible no
inflacionista.
Belén San José
Ramón Carrasco
http://broker.ebankinter.com/
Esther Gutierrez
http://www.ebankinter.com/
Ana Achau (Asesoramiento)
Avda de Bruselas, 12
28108, Alcobendas (Madrid)
Pág. 1 de 3
Por favor, consulte importantes advertencias legales en:
http://broker.ebankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+binarios?secc=OPVS&subs=DISC&nombre=disclaimer.pdf
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Análisis
21-ene.-2016
UEM: decisión de tipos del BCE
ANTERIOR MENSAJE DEL BCE: Introducción/extracto
ACTUAL MENSAJE DEL BCE: Introducción
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2015/html/is151022.en.html
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2015/html/is151203.en.html
Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we
today conducted a thorough assessment of the strength
and persistence of the factors that are currently slowing
the return of inflation to levels below, but close to, 2% in
the medium term and re-examined the degree of monetary
accommodation. As a result, the Governing Council took
the following decisions in the pursuit of its price stability
objective:
First, as regards the key ECB interest rates, we decided to
lower the interest rate on the deposit facility by 10 basis
points to -0.30%. The interest rate on the main
refinancing operations and the rate on the marginal
lending facility will remain unchanged at their current
levels of 0.05% and 0.30% respectively.
Second, as regards non-standard monetary policy
measures, we decided to extend the asset purchase
programme (APP). The monthly purchases of €60 billion
under the APP are now intended to run until the end of
March 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until
the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the
path of inflation consistent with its aim of achieving
inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium
term.
Third, we decided to reinvest the principal payments on
the securities purchased under the APP as they mature,
for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to
favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate
monetary policy stance. The technical details will be
communicated in due time.
Fourth, we decided to include, in the public sector purchase
programme,
euro-denominated
marketable
debt
instruments issued by regional and local governments
located in the euro area in the list of assets that are
eligible for regular purchases by the respective national
central banks.
Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, and
after the recalibration of our monetary policy measures last
month, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates
unchanged and we expect them to remain at present or
lower levels for an extended period of time. Regarding our
non-standard monetary policy measures, the asset
purchases are proceeding smoothly and continue to have a
favourable impact on the cost and availability of credit for
firms and households.
Taking stock of the evidence available at the beginning of
2016, it is clear that the monetary policy measures that we
have adopted since mid-2014 are working. As a result,
developments in the real economy, credit provision and
financing conditions have improved and have strengthened
the euro area’s resilience to recent global economic shocks.
The decisions taken in early December to extend our
monthly net asset purchases of €60 billion to at least the
end of March 2017, and to reinvest the principal payments
on maturing securities for as long as necessary, were fully
appropriate. They will result in a significant addition of
liquidity to the banking system and will strengthen our
forward guidance on interest rates.
Yet, as we start the new year, downside risks have
increased again amid heightened uncertainty about
emerging market economies’ growth prospects, volatility
in financial and commodity markets, and geopolitical
risks. In this environment, euro area inflation dynamics
also continue to be weaker than expected. It will therefore
be necessary to review and possibly reconsider our
monetary policy stance at our next meeting in early March,
when the new staff macroeconomic projections become
available which will also cover the year 2018. In the
meantime, work will be carried out to ensure that all the
technical conditions are in place to make the full range of
policy options available for implementation, if needed.
Fifth, we decided to continue conducting the main
refinancing operations and three-month longer-term
refinancing operations as fixed rate tender procedures
with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least
until the end of the last reserve maintenance period of
2017.
CURVA DE TIPOS DE INTERÉS EN EUROPA Y EEUU.
3,0%
2,5%
UEM
Rentabilidad
2,0%
EEUU
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
-0,5%
3M
6M
12M
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y
15Y
20Y
30Y
Diferencilal
-1,0%
1,5
-0,5
-2,5
3M
Análisis Bankinter
Ramón Forcada
Eva del Barrio
6M
12M
Jesús Amador
Ana de Castro
2Y
3Y
Pilar Aranda
Rafael Alonso
4Y
5Y
6Y
Belén San José
Ramón Carrasco
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y
15Y
http://broker.ebankinter.com/
Esther Gutierrez
http://www.ebankinter.com/
Ana Achau (Asesoramiento)
Avda de Bruselas, 12
28108, Alcobendas (Madrid)
Pág. 2 de 3
Por favor, consulte importantes advertencias legales en:
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* Si desea acceder directamente al disclaimer seleccione sobre el link la opción "open weblink in Browser" con el botón derecho de su ratón.
Análisis
21-ene.-2016
UEM: decisión de tipos del BCE
DISCURSO INTRODUCTORIO A LA RUEDA DE PRENSA (TEXTO COMPLETO)
Ladies and gentlemen, first of all let me wish you a Happy New Year. The Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our
press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the
Commission Vice-President, Mr Dombrovskis.
Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, and after the recalibration of our monetary policy measures last month, we
decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged and we expect them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of
time. Regarding our non-standard monetary policy measures, the asset purchases are proceeding smoothly and continue to have a
favourable impact on the cost and availability of credit for firms and households.
Taking stock of the evidence available at the beginning of 2016, it is clear that the monetary policy measures that we have adopted since
mid-2014 are working. As a result, developments in the real economy, credit provision and financing conditions have improved and have
strengthened the euro area’s resilience to recent global economic shocks. The decisions taken in early December to extend our monthly
net asset purchases of €60 billion to at least the end of March 2017, and to reinvest the principal payments on maturing securities for as
long as necessary, were fully appropriate. They will result in a significant addition of liquidity to the banking system and will strengthen
our forward guidance on interest rates.
Yet, as we start the new year, downside risks have increased again amid heightened uncertainty about emerging market economies’
growth prospects, volatility in financial and commodity markets, and geopolitical risks. In this environment, euro area inflation
dynamics also continue to be weaker than expected. It will therefore be necessary to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy
stance at our next meeting in early March, when the new staff macroeconomic projections become available which will also cover the
year 2018. In the meantime, work will be carried out to ensure that all the technical conditions are in place to make the full range of
policy options available for implementation, if needed.
Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP growth was confirmed at
0.3%, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter of 2015, supported mainly by private consumption, while being dampened by a negative
contribution from net exports. The most recent survey indicators, available up to December, point to ongoing real GDP growth
momentum in the fourth quarter of last year. Looking ahead, we expect the economic recovery to proceed. Domestic demand should be
further supported by our monetary policy measures and their favourable impact on financial conditions, as well as by the earlier progress
made with fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. Moreover, the renewed fall in oil prices should provide additional support for
households’ real disposable income and corporate profitability and, therefore, for private consumption and investment. In addition, the
fiscal stance in the euro area is becoming slightly expansionary, reflecting in particular measures in support of refugees. However, the
economic recovery in the euro area continues to be dampened by subdued growth prospects in emerging markets, volatile financial
markets, the necessary balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors and the sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms.
The risks to the euro area growth outlook remain on the downside and relate in particular to the heightened uncertainties regarding
developments in the global economy, as well as to broader geopolitical risks. These risks have the potential to weigh on global growth
and foreign demand for euro area exports and on confidence more widely.
Euro area annual HICP inflation was 0.2% in December 2015, compared with 0.1% in November. The December outcome was lower than
expected, mainly reflecting the renewed sharp decline in oil prices, as well as lower food price and services price inflation. On the basis of
current oil futures prices, which are well below the level observed a few weeks ago, the expected path of annual HICP inflation in 2016 is
now significantly lower compared with the outlook in early December. Inflation rates are currently expected to remain at very low or
negative levels in the coming months and to pick up only later in 2016. Thereafter, supported by our monetary policy measures and the
expected economic recovery, inflation rates should continue to recover, but risks of second-round effects should be monitored closely. A
more comprehensive picture of the impact of oil prices and other external and domestic factors on the outlook for HICP inflation will
become available in the March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, which will also cover the year 2018.
Turning to the monetary analysis, recent data confirm solid growth in broad money (M3), with the annual rate of growth of M3 standing
at 5.1% in November 2015, after 5.3% in October. Annual growth in M3 continues to be mainly supported by its most liquid components,
with the narrow monetary aggregate M1 growing at an annual rate of 11.2% in November, after 11.8% in October.
Loan dynamics continued the path of gradual recovery observed since the beginning of 2014. The annual rate of change of loans to nonfinancial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) increased to 0.9% in November 2015, up from 0.6% in October.
Developments in loans to enterprises continue to reflect the lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit risk and the ongoing
adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets. The annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales
and securitisation) increased to 1.4% in November, compared with 1.2% in October.
The bank lending survey for the euro area for the fourth quarter of 2015 points to further improvements in demand for bank loans,
supported by the low level of interest rates, financing needs for investment purposes and housing market prospects. Credit standards
eased further on loans to enterprises, notably owing to increasing competitive pressures in retail banking, and reverted to a net easing on
loans to households for house purchase. Overall, the monetary policy measures in place since June 2014 have clearly improved
borrowing conditions for both firms and households, as well as credit flows across the euro area.
To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed the
effectiveness of the monetary policy measures in place and the need to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy stance at our
next meeting in early March in order to secure a return of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2%.
Monetary policy is focused on maintaining price stability over the medium term and its accommodative stance supports economic
activity. However, in order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute decisively.
Given continued high structural unemployment and low potential output growth in the euro area, the ongoing cyclical recovery should be
supported by effective structural policies. In particular, actions to improve the business environment, including the provision of an
adequate public infrastructure, are vital to increase productive investment, boost job creation and raise productivity. The swift and
effective implementation of structural reforms, in an environment of accommodative monetary policy, will not only lead to higher
sustainable economic growth in the euro area but will also raise expectations of permanently higher incomes and accelerate the
beneficial effects of reforms, thereby making the euro area more resilient to global shocks. Fiscal policies should support the economic
recovery, while remaining in compliance with the fiscal rules of the European Union. Full and consistent implementation of the Stability
and Growth Pact is crucial to maintain confidence in the fiscal framework. At the same time, all countries should strive for a more
growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies.
We are now at your disposal for questions.
Análisis Bankinter
Ramón Forcada
Eva del Barrio
Jesús Amador
Ana de Castro
Pilar Aranda
Belén San José
Rafael Alonso
Ramón Carrasco
http://broker.ebankinter.com/
Esther Gutierrez
http://www.ebankinter.com/
Ana Achau (Asesoramiento)
Avda de Bruselas, 12
28108, Alcobendas (Madrid)
Pág. 3 de 3
Por favor, consulte importantes advertencias legales en:
http://broker.ebankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+binarios?secc=OPVS&subs=DISC&nombre=disclaimer.pdf
* Si desea acceder directamente al disclaimer seleccione sobre el link la opción "open weblink in Browser" con el botón derecho de su ratón.