1. Ciencia

09 de febrero de 2015
www.monex.com.mx
Kaleidoscopio
@monexanalisis
Elaborado por: Juan Francisco Caudillo
IPC 42,810 puntos (+0.2%)
470
465
460
455
450
445
440
435
430
425
420
415
410
405
400
395
390
385
380
375
370
IPC (42,715.43, 42,876.95, 42,474.83, 42,810.29, +94.8594)
0.0%
Zona de Indesición
78.6%
100.0%
112.8%
x100
Relative Strength Index (52.8124)
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
C?
MACD (15.4381)
50
-50
x10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Feb
Mar
Apr
AmxL 16.2 (+0.0%)
AMXL (16.2600, 16.2600, 16.0300, 16.1800, +0.0000)
18.0
17.5
88.6%
78.6%
17.0
61.8%
16.5
16.0
15.5
50.0%
15.0
61.8%
14.5
14.0
78.6%
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
Relative Strength Index (47.4410)
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
MACD (-0.04821)
0.5
0.0
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Feb
Mar
Apr
WalmexV 32.8 (+1.9%)
WALMEXV (32.1000, 32.9200, 32.0000, 32.8000, +0.62000)
36.0
35.5
35.0
34.5
78.6%
34.0
33.5
33.0
61.8%
32.5
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
29.0
88.6%
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
112.8%
70
65
Relative Strength Index (62.2223)
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
MACD (0.22657)
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Feb
Mar
Apr
Fuente: Metastock
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Feb
Mar
Apr
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Kaleidoscopio
1
FemsaUbd 131.7 pesos (+1.8%)
FEMSAUBD (128.780, 132.400, 128.030, 131.740, +2.31001)
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
Relative Strength Index (56.8133)
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
MACD (0.46514)
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Feb
Mar
Apr
GmexicoB 45.2 pesos (+0.1%)
GMEXICOB (45.1500, 45.4300, 44.7100, 45.1900, +0.04000)
49
48
47
46
45
44
38.2%
43
61.8%
41
42
40
39
88.6%
38
37
36
127.2%
112.8%
35
Relative Strength Index (59.6284)
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
MACD (0.48244)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Feb
Mar
Apr
GfnorteO 78.9 pesos (-0.8%)
GFNORTEO (78.9500, 80.2500, 78.6100, 78.9400, -0.64000)
0.0%
95
90
85
78.6%
100.0%
80
127.2%
75
161.8%
70
65
200.0%
Relative Strength Index (49.8057)
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
2.0
MACD (0.14426)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Feb
Mar
Apr
Fuente: Metastock
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Feb
Mar
Apr
MONEX Grupo Financiero /Kaleidoscopio
2
Kaleidoscopio Internacional
BOVESPA 49,383 puntos (+1.2%)
IBV (48,791.92, 49,522.27, 48,415.52, 49,382.58, +590.309)
600
550
61.8%
500
0.0%
450
x100
Relative Strength Index (49.6066)
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
15
MACD (-186.670)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
x100
2014
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Feb
Mar
Apr
EDC* 346.1 pesos (-0.9%)
EDC* (350.500, 350.500, 345.100, 346.100, -2.97000)
450
400
350
78.6%
300
100.0%
250
112.8%
Relative Strength Index (49.5090)
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
MACD (4.47678)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Feb
Mar
Apr
EDZ* 520.7 pesos (+0.1%)
EDZ* (522.000, 522.000, 514.510, 520.690, +0.77002)
112.8%
750
100.0%
700
88.6%
650
600
550
500
61.8%
450
78.6%
400
350
Relative Strength Index (49.8822)
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
MACD (-8.05186)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Feb
Mar
Apr
Fuente: Metastock
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Feb
Mar
Apr
MONEX Grupo Financiero / Kaleidoscopio
3
Indicadores Técnicos
Ultimo
Precio
Soporte
Resistencia
42,810
92.3
29.7
16.4
41.0
16.2
197.9
38.8
25.0
14.9
46.7
529.4
131.7
102.5
66.4
28.4
40.0
78.9
77.1
45.2
171.2
14.4
62.0
72.5
30.5
122.4
23.1
29.6
156.3
43.2
29.7
301.5
176.0
33.0
98.5
32.8
41,000
85.0
27.0
16.0
39.0
15.5
190.0
38.0
24.0
13.0
45.0
500.0
120.0
88.0
63.0
26.0
35.0
72.0
68.0
38.0
150.0
13.5
60.0
65.0
27.5
120.0
21.5
26.0
135.0
40.0
25.0
280.0
150.0
27.0
90.0
28.0
44,000
95.0
30.0
18.0
43.0
17.5
210.0
41.0
26.0
15.5
50.0
600.0
135.0
105.0
70.0
31.0
42.0
82.0
82.0
46.0
175.0
17.0
66.0
77.0
31.0
130.0
26.0
31.5
165.0
45.0
31.0
325.0
185.0
35.0
105.0
33.0
-4.2%
-7.9%
-9.2%
-2.5%
-4.9%
-4.2%
-4.0%
-2.1%
-3.8%
-12.8%
-3.6%
-5.6%
-8.9%
-14.1%
-5.1%
-8.5%
-12.4%
-8.8%
-11.7%
-15.9%
-12.4%
-6.0%
-3.2%
-10.3%
-9.7%
-1.9%
-6.7%
-12.1%
-13.6%
-7.5%
-15.7%
-7.1%
-14.8%
-18.1%
-8.7%
-14.6%
Dow Jones (EUA)
S&P (EUA)
Nasdaq Comp (EUA)
UKX (RU)
DAX (Alemania)
CAC (Francia)
IBEX (España)
FTSEMIB (Italia)
NKY (Japón)
HSI (China)
IBOV (Brasil)
IPSA (Chile)
Principales Divisas
17,729
2,047
4,216
6,837
10,664
4,651
10,365
20,367
17,712
24,521
49,383
3,924
16,800
1,950
4,000
6,100
8,500
3,900
9,800
17,800
14,000
22,300
45,000
3,600
18,000
2,085
4,350
6,900
11,000
4,800
11,000
21,500
17,800
25,000
52,000
4,000
MXN (Peso-Dólar)
EUR (Euro-Dólar)
GBP (Libra-Dólar)
JPY (Yen-Dólar)
BRL (Real B.-Dólar)
ETFs (pesos)
14.83
1.13
1.52
118.60
2.77
14.65
1.11
1.50
115.00
2.45
NAFTRAC (IPyC)
ANGEL (200% IPyC)
DIABLO (-100% IPyC)
EDC* (300% Emergentes)
EDZ* (-300% Emergentes)
FAS* (300% Financ. EUA)
FAZ* (-300 Financ. EUA)
GLD* (Oro)
SLV* (Plata)
DIA* (Dow Jones)
SPY* (S&P)
QQQ* (Nasdaq)
EWZ* (Brasil)
EWJ* (Japón)
EWG* (Alemania)
EWU* (Inglaterra)
EWP* (España)
ERUS* (Rusia)
42.8
27.0
16.5
346.1
520.7
1,767.9
195.0
1,763.0
241.0
2,620.0
3,028.7
1,524.0
517.4
171.6
415.8
274.7
484.0
185.2
39.0
23.0
16.0
250.0
450.0
1,100.0
185.0
1,535.0
215.0
2,000.0
2,350.0
1,150.0
480.0
140.0
350.0
260.0
475.0
150.0
Emisoras (IPyC)
IPyC
AC*
ALFAA
ALPEKA
ALSEA*
AMXL
ASURB
BIMBOA
BOLSAA
CEMEXCPO
COMERUBC
ELEKTRA*
FEMSAUBD
GAPB
GCARSO
GENTERA*
GFINBURO
GFNORTEO
GFREGIO
GMEXICOB
GRUMAB
ICA*
ICHB
IENOVA*
KIMBERA
KOFL
LABB
LALA
LIVERPOLC
MEXCHEM*
OHLMEX*
PE&OLES*
PINFRA
SANMEXB
TLEVICPO
WALMEXV
Principales Indices
Fuente: Monex con base en Bloomberg
Var vs Var % vs
Soporte
Resist.
Rend. /
Riesgo
RSI (9)
PMS % Precio
10 Días
vs PM
PMS 30 % Precio PMS 100 % Precio PMS 200 % Precio
Días
vs PM
Días
vs PM
Días
vs PM
2.8%
2.9%
0.9%
9.7%
4.9%
8.2%
6.1%
5.6%
4.2%
4.0%
7.1%
13.3%
2.5%
2.5%
5.5%
9.2%
5.1%
3.9%
6.4%
1.8%
2.2%
18.4%
6.4%
6.3%
1.7%
6.3%
12.8%
6.5%
5.5%
4.1%
4.5%
7.8%
5.1%
6.2%
6.6%
0.6%
0.7
0.4
0.1
3.9
1.0
1.9
1.5
2.7
1.1
0.3
2.0
2.4
0.3
0.2
1.1
1.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.2
3.1
2.0
0.6
0.2
3.3
1.9
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.0
59
66
45
47
63
41
57
49
55
59
43
40
59
61
44
50
55
55
56
71
71
27
43
58
56
41
45
51
59
55
56
59
58
67
49
70
42,144
90.0
29.2
16.7
40.9
16.4
198.1
39.4
25.0
13.9
47.3
563.9
127.6
100.3
66.6
28.8
40.2
79.3
78.5
41.8
168.1
15.7
63.3
72.3
29.6
123.7
24.6
29.6
155.4
43.5
30.0
300.4
176.2
32.4
98.8
30.0
1.6%
2.5%
1.8%
-1.9%
0.2%
-1.2%
-0.1%
-1.6%
-0.1%
6.5%
-1.3%
-6.5%
3.1%
2.1%
-0.3%
-1.4%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-1.9%
7.6%
1.8%
-9.0%
-2.0%
0.2%
2.8%
-1.1%
-6.6%
-0.2%
0.6%
-0.7%
-1.0%
0.4%
-0.1%
1.6%
-0.3%
8.7%
42,108
90.8
30.7
17.1
40.5
16.4
195.2
39.8
25.5
14.3
48.5
548.1
127.6
97.0
68.7
28.5
38.9
78.5
75.7
41.4
158.7
17.0
65.9
72.4
30.6
126.7
24.8
28.9
148.3
43.5
28.4
292.1
173.3
30.3
97.9
30.1
1.6%
1.6%
-3.2%
-4.3%
1.3%
-1.7%
1.4%
-2.5%
-2.0%
3.8%
-3.8%
-3.5%
3.2%
5.4%
-3.5%
-0.4%
2.7%
0.6%
1.8%
8.4%
7.3%
-18.5%
-6.2%
0.1%
-0.6%
-3.6%
-7.4%
2.4%
5.1%
-0.6%
4.2%
3.1%
1.5%
7.9%
0.6%
8.2%
43,372
90.3
37.3
21.1
41.2
16.4
182.7
39.2
27.2
15.9
49.8
497.4
126.9
93.9
74.2
28.7
38.2
81.6
74.9
43.8
150.6
20.3
69.6
78.1
31.0
132.8
29.2
29.9
151.4
49.6
32.5
292.0
175.9
32.5
96.3
30.9
-1.3%
2.2%
-25.7%
-28.4%
-0.6%
-1.2%
7.7%
-0.9%
-9.1%
-6.6%
-6.7%
6.0%
3.7%
8.4%
-11.8%
-1.0%
4.4%
-3.4%
2.7%
3.0%
12.0%
-41.3%
-12.3%
-7.7%
-1.8%
-8.5%
-26.7%
-1.0%
3.2%
-14.8%
-9.7%
3.2%
0.0%
1.5%
2.3%
5.8%
43,390
90.0
37.6
22.9
43.3
15.3
174.9
39.3
27.4
16.4
49.8
425.5
125.8
90.3
73.3
27.3
38.3
86.8
75.5
44.1
146.6
22.6
71.5
76.0
33.0
139.9
32.1
31.4
149.5
51.7
35.6
312.2
177.9
33.8
93.6
32.4
-1.4%
2.5%
-26.4%
-39.4%
-5.7%
5.2%
11.6%
-1.4%
-9.6%
-10.1%
-6.7%
19.6%
4.5%
11.9%
-10.5%
3.9%
4.3%
-9.9%
2.0%
2.3%
14.4%
-57.2%
-15.3%
-4.9%
-8.4%
-14.4%
-39.1%
-6.3%
4.4%
-19.7%
-19.9%
-3.6%
-1.1%
-2.5%
5.1%
1.4%
-5.2%
-4.7%
-5.1%
-10.8%
-20.3%
-16.1%
-5.5%
-12.6%
-21.0%
-9.1%
-8.9%
-8.3%
1.5%
1.9%
3.2%
0.9%
3.2%
3.2%
6.1%
5.6%
0.5%
2.0%
5.3%
1.9%
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.2
1.1
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.6
0.2
59
56
54
64
69
71
59
65
58
51
52
80
17,525
2,034
4,204
6,828
10,795
4,654
10,528
20,700
17,628
24,646
48,347
3,879
1.2%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
-1.2%
-0.1%
-1.6%
-1.6%
0.5%
-0.5%
2.1%
1.1%
17,639
2,040
4,207
6,650
10,227
4,421
10,272
19,593
17,410
24,232
48,711
3,823
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
2.7%
4.1%
4.9%
0.9%
3.8%
1.7%
1.2%
1.4%
2.6%
17,378
2,013
4,146
6,580
9,660
4,293
10,381
19,586
16,750
23,744
52,122
3,873
2.0%
1.7%
1.7%
3.8%
9.4%
7.7%
-0.2%
3.8%
5.4%
3.2%
-5.5%
1.3%
17,092
1,979
3,994
6,682
9,660
4,351
10,548
20,308
15,893
23,692
53,733
3,901
3.6%
3.3%
5.3%
2.3%
9.4%
6.4%
-1.8%
0.3%
10.3%
3.4%
-8.8%
0.6%
15.10
1.17
1.60
121.00
2.68
-1.2%
-2.0%
-1.4%
-3.0%
-11.6%
1.8%
3.3%
5.1%
2.0%
-3.3%
1.5
1.7
3.6
0.7
0.3
55
41
53
56
70
14.80
1.14
1.52
117.89
2.69
0.2%
-0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
2.9%
14.73
1.16
1.52
118.34
2.66
0.7%
-2.5%
0.2%
0.2%
4.0%
14.10
1.22
1.57
115.26
2.57
4.9%
-8.1%
-3.0%
2.8%
7.4%
13.57
1.28
1.62
109.06
2.41
8.5%
-13.4%
-6.7%
8.0%
13.2%
43.0
28.0
18.5
400.0
750.0
1,750.0
250.0
1,850.0
250.0
2,600.0
3,000.0
1,550.0
600.0
180.0
425.0
285.0
575.0
220.0
-8.9%
-14.8%
-2.9%
-27.8%
-13.6%
-37.8%
-5.1%
-12.9%
-10.8%
-23.7%
-22.4%
-24.5%
-7.2%
-18.4%
-15.8%
-5.3%
-1.9%
-19.0%
0.5%
3.8%
12.3%
15.6%
44.0%
-1.0%
28.2%
4.9%
3.7%
-0.8%
-0.9%
1.7%
16.0%
4.9%
2.2%
3.8%
18.8%
18.8%
0.1
0.3
4.3
0.6
3.2
0.0
5.5
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
2.2
0.3
0.1
0.7
10.1
1.0
59
59
39
48
51
61
42
45
41
68
68
60
36
64
60
73
53
44
42.1
26.2
16.7
360.0
505.0
1,695.3
201.7
1,804.0
248.2
2,592.8
3,000.7
1,515.1
526.9
171.6
420.4
271.9
493.4
176.0
1.6%
2.8%
-1.7%
-4.0%
3.0%
4.1%
-3.5%
-2.3%
-3.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
-1.8%
0.0%
-1.1%
1.0%
-1.9%
5.0%
42.1
26.3
16.8
343.6
535.6
1,754.9
198.6
1,753.2
238.7
2,595.2
3,003.9
1,510.9
529.6
168.1
408.5
266.2
497.5
198.1
1.6%
2.5%
-2.0%
0.7%
-2.9%
0.7%
-1.9%
0.6%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.9%
-2.4%
2.1%
1.8%
3.1%
-2.8%
-6.9%
43.4
28.3
16.5
353.0
498.2
1,591.2
205.3
1,636.7
228.1
2,409.3
2,821.5
1,414.9
566.9
161.1
386.6
261.8
512.3
230.9
-1.3%
43.4
-1.4%
-4.9%
28.7
-6.4%
-0.4%
16.9
-2.8%
-2.0%
381.0
-10.1%
4.3%
454.8
12.7%
10.0%
1,426.6
19.3%
-5.3%
221.8
-13.8%
7.2%
1,632.0
7.4%
5.4%
239.3
0.7%
8.0%
2,288.3
12.7%
6.8%
2,677.2
11.6%
7.2%
1,313.4
13.8%
-9.6%
603.1
-16.6%
6.1%
156.9
8.6%
7.0%
392.9
5.5%
4.7%
268.3
2.3%
-5.9%
527.7
-9.0%
-24.7% #N/A N/A #¡VALOR!
MONEX Grupo Financiero /Kaleidoscopio
4
Análisis Técnico
MONEX Grupo Financiero /Kaleidoscopio
5
Directorio
Dirección de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil
Carlos A. González Tabares
Director de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil
T. 5231-4521
[email protected]
Eduardo Ávila Vargas
Subdirector de Análisis Económico
T. 5231-0489
[email protected]
Daniela Ruíz Zárate
Analista Económico
T. 5231-0489
[email protected]
Fernando E. Bolaños S.
Analista Bursátil / Industrial, Minero y Petroquímico
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 0720
[email protected]
J. Roberto Solano Pérez
Analista Bursátil / Construcción, Vivienda y Fibras
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451
[email protected]
Verónica Uribe Boyzo
Analista Bursátil / Alimentos y Bebidas
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4782
[email protected]
Giselle N. Mojica Plascencia
Analista Bursátil
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451
[email protected]
Laura Villanueva Ramírez
Analista Bursátil
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 0720
[email protected]
Stephany Ramírez Rojas
Analista Deuda Corporativa
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4262
[email protected]
J. Francisco Caudillo Lira
Analista Técnico Sr.
T. 5231-0016
[email protected]
Astianax Cuanalo Dorantes
Analista Sr. de Sistemas de Información
T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4790
[email protected]
MONEX Grupo Financiero /Kaleidoscopio
6
Disclaimer
MONEX Grupo Financiero /Kaleidoscopio
7